ES – 71

ENGINEERING DATA
ANALYSIS

ENGR. MARY CRIS L. AYING-TAMPOS

FACULTY, CET
 COURSE OUTLINE
1. OBTAINING DATA
1.1 Methods of Data Collection
1.2 Planning and Conducting Surveys
1.3 Planning and Conducting Experiments:
Introduction to Design of Experiments

2. PROBABILITY
2.1 Relationship among Events
2.2 Counting Rules Useful in Probability
2.3 Rules of Probability
3. Discrete Probability Distribution
3.1 Random Variables and their Probability Distribution
3.2 Cumulative Distribution Functions
3.3 Expected Values of Random Variables
3.4 Binomial Distribution
3.5 Poisson Distribution
4. Continuous Probability Distribution
4.1 Continuous Random Variables and their Probability
Distribution
4.2 Expected Values of Continuous Random Variables
4.3 Normal Distribution
4.4 Normal Approximation to the Binomial and Poisson
Distribution
4.5 Exponential Distribution
5. Joint Probability Distribution
5.1 Two or Random Variables
5.1.1 Joint Probability Distributions
5.1.2 Marginal Probability Distribution
5.1.3 Conditional Probability Distribution
5.1.4 More than Two Random Variables
5.2 Linear Functions of Random Variables
5.3 General Functions of Random Variables
6. Sampling Distributions and Point Estimation of Parameters
6.1 Point Estimation
6.2 Sampling Distribution and the Central Limit Theorem
6.3 General Concept of Point Estimation
6.3.1 Unbiased Estimator
6.3.2 Variance of a Point Estimator
6.3.3 Standard Error
6.3.4 Mean Squared Error of an Estimator
7. Statistical Intervals
7.1 Confidence Intervals: Simple Sample
7.2 Confidence Intervals: Multiple Samples
7.3 Prediction Intervals
7.4 Tolerance Intervals
8. Test of Hypothesis for a Single Sample
8.1 Hypothesis Testing
8.1.1 One-sided and Two-sided Hypothesis
8.1.2 P-value in Hypothesis Tests
8.1.3 General Procedure for Test of Hypothesis
8.2 Test on the Mean of a Normal Distribution, Variance
Known
8.3 Test on the Mean of a Normal Distribution, Variance
Unknown
8.4 Test on the Variance and Statistical Deviation of a Normal
Distribution
8.5 Test on a Population Proportion
9. Statistical Inference of Two Samples
9.1 Inference on the Difference in Means of Two Normal
Distributions, Variances Known
9.2 Inference on the Difference in Means of Two Normal
Distributions, Variances Unknown
9.3 Inference on the Variance of Two Normal
9.4 Inference on Two Population Proportions
10. Simple Linear Regression and Correlation
10.1 Empirical Models
10.2 Regression: Modelling Linear Relationships –
The Least-Squares Approach
10.3 Correlation: Estimating the Strength of Linear Relation
10.4 Hypothesis Tests in Simple Linear Regression
10.4.1 Use of t-tests
10.4.2 Analysis of Variance Approach to Test
Significance of Regression
10.5 Prediction of New Observations
10.6 Adequacy of the Regression Model
10.6.1 Residual Analysis
10.6.2 Coefficient of Determination
 Course References
(1) Myers, R. et. al,. 2012., “Probability and Statistics for
Engineers and Scientist”. 9th Ed.
(2) Hayter, A., 2012., “Probability and Statistics for
Engineers and Scientist”., 4th Ed.
(3) Soong, T., 2004., “Fundamentals of Probability and
Statistics for Engineers”. 1st Ed.
Grading System
Attendance : 5%
Quizzes/Participation : 15%
Prelim Exam : 20%
Midterm Exam : 20%
Prefinal Exam : 20%
Final Exam : 20%
100%

Passing Rate : 50%

 CHAPTER 4

CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
 CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
❑ Uniform Probability Distribution
❑ Normal Probability Distribution
❑ Exponential Probability Distribution
f (x) Exponential
Uniform
f (x)

Normal
f (x)
x
x

x
4.1 CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES AND THEIR PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS

•
 •

Uniform
f (x) Normal f (x) Exponential
f (x)

x x
a b x a xb1 x2
a b

4.1 CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES AND THEIR PROBABILITY

DISTRIBUTIONS
4.2 EXPECTED VALUES OF CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES

•
•

4.2 EXPECTED VALUES OF CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES

•

4.2 EXPECTED VALUES OF CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES

4.3 UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION

❑ A random variable is uniformly distributed whenever the probability is

proportional to the interval’s length.
❑ The uniform probability density function is:

where: a = smallest value the variable can assume

b = largest value the variable can assume
 ❑ Expected Value of X

❑ Variance of X

4.3 UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION

Example: Slater's Buffet
Slater customers are charged for the amount of salad they take. Sampling
suggests that the amount of salad taken is uniformly distributed between
5 ounces and 15 ounces.

❑ Uniform Probability Density Function

where:
x = salad plate filling weight

4.3 UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Uniform Probability Distribution

❑ Expected Value of X

❑ Variance of X

4.3 UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Uniform Probability Distribution for Salad Plate Filling Weight

f(x)

1/10

x
0 5 10 15
Salad Weight (oz.)

4.3 UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION

 What is the probability that a customer will take between 12 and 15 ounces
of salad?

f(x)

1/10

x
0 5 10 12 15
Salad Weight (oz.)

4.3 UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

❑ The normal probability distribution is the most important distribution for

describing a continuous random variable.
❑ It is widely used in statistical inference.
❑ It has been used in a wide variety of applications
including:
o Heights of people
o Test scores
o Rainfall amounts
o Scientific measurements
❑ The graphical appearance of the Normal distribution is a symmetrical
bell-shaped curve that extends without bound in both positive and
negative directions.
 ❑ Normal Probability Density Function

1 − ( x −  )2 /2  2
f (x) = e
 2

where:

e = 2.71828 = EXP(1) (Excel)

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Characteristics

The distribution is symmetric; its skewness

measure is zero.

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Characteristics

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Characteristics

The highest point on the normal curve is at the

mean, which is also the median and mode.

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Characteristics

The mean can be any numerical value: negative,

zero, or positive.

x
-10 0 25

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Characteristics

The standard deviation determines the width of the

curve: larger values result in wider, flatter curves.

 = 15

 = 25

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Characteristics

Probabilities for the normal random variable are given

by areas under the curve. The total area under the curve is 1
(.5 to the left of the mean and .5 to the right).

.5 .5
x

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Characteristics

68.30% of values of a normal random variable

are within of its mean.

95.45% of values of a normal random variable

are within of its mean.

99.73% of values of a normal random variable

are within of its mean.

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Characteristics

99.72%
95.44%
68.26%


x
 – 3  – 1  + 1  + 3
 – 2  + 2

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Example:

A sample of IQs has a symmetric distribution with a mean of 100

and a standard deviation of 15.

1. Sketch the distribution.

2. 60.26% of people have an IQ between what 2 values?
3. What percent of people have an IQ between 70 and 130?
4. What percent of people have an IQ between 100 and 115?
5. What percent of people have an IQ above 145?

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Solution:

95.44%
1.
68.26%
2.

3.
4.
5.

100
x
55 85 115 145
70 130

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

❑ Characteristics

A random variable having a normal distribution with a mean

of 0 and a standard deviation of 1 is said to have a
standard normal probability distribution.

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

❑ Characteristics

The letter z is used to designate the standard normal

random variable.

=1

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

❑ Converting to the Standard Normal Distribution

x−
z=


4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 USING EXCEL TO COMPUTE STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITIES

❑ Excel has two functions for computing probabilities and z values

for a standard normal distribution:
NORM
NORMSDIST S DIST is used to compute the cumulative
probability given a z value.

NORMSINV
NORM S INV is used to compute the z value
given a cumulative probability.

The “S” in the function names reminds us that

they relate to the standard normal probability
distribution.

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 USING EXCEL TO COMPUTE STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITIES

❑ Excel Formula Worksheet

A B
1 Probabilities: Standard Normal Distribution
2
3 P (z < 1.00) =NORMSDIST(1)
4 P (0.00 < z < 1.00) =NORMSDIST(1)-NORMSDIST(0)
5 P (0.00 < z < 1.25) =NORMSDIST(1.25)-NORMSDIST(0)
6 P (-1.00 < z < 1.00) =NORMSDIST(1)-NORMSDIST(-1)
7 P (z > 1.58) =1-NORMSDIST(1.58)
8 P (z < -0.50) =NORMSDIST(-0.5)
9

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 USING EXCEL TO COMPUTE STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITIES

❑ Excel Value Worksheet

A B
1 Probabilities: Standard Normal Distribution
2
3 P (z < 1.00) 0.8413
4 P (0.00 < z < 1.00) 0.3413
5 P (0.00 < z < 1.25) 0.3944
6 P (-1.00 < z < 1.00) 0.6827
7 P (z > 1.58) 0.0571
8 P (z < -0.50) 0.3085
9

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 USING EXCEL TO COMPUTE STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITIES

❑ Excel Formula Worksheet

A B
1 Finding z Values, Given Probabilities
2
3 z value with .10 in upper tail =NORMSINV(0.9)
4 z value with .025 in upper tail =NORMSINV(0.975)
5 z value with .025 in lower tail =NORMSINV(0.025)
6

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 USING EXCEL TO COMPUTE STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITIES

❑ Excel Value Worksheet

A B
1 Finding z Values, Given Probabilities
2
3 z value with .10 in upper tail 1.28
4 z value with .025 in upper tail 1.96
5 z value with .025 in lower tail -1.96
6

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Example: Pep Zone

Pep Zone sells auto parts and supplies including a popular

multi-grade motor oil. When the stock of this oil drops to 20
gallons, a replenishment order is placed.

The store manager is concerned that sales are being lost

due to stockouts while waiting for a replenishment order.

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Example: Pep Zone

It has been determined that demand during replenishment

lead-time is normally distributed with a mean of 15 gallons
and a standard deviation of 6 gallons.

The manager would like to know the probability of a stockout

during replenishment lead-time. In other words, what is the
probability that demand during lead-time will exceed 20
gallons?
P(x > 20) = ?

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

❑ Solving for the Stockout Probability

Step 1: Convert x to the standard normal distribution.

z = (x - )/
= (20 - 15)/6
= .83

Step 2: Find the area under the standard normal curve to

the left of z = .83.

see next slide

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

❑ Cumulative Probability Table for the Standard Normal Distribution

z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
. . . . . . . . . . .
.5 .6915 .6950 .6985 .7019 .7054 .7088 .7123 .7157 .7190 .7224
.6 .7257 .7291 .7324 .7357 .7389 .7422 .7454 .7486 .7517 .7549
.7 .7580 .7611 .7642 .7673 .7704 .7734 .7764 .7794 .7823 .7852
.8 .7881 .7910 .7939 .7967 .7995 .8023 .8051 .8078 .8106 .8133
.9 .8159 .8186 .8212 .8238 .8264 .8289 .8315 .8340 .8365 .8389
. . . . . . . . . . .

P(z < .83)

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

❑ Solving for the Stockout Probability

Step 3: Compute the area under the standard normal

curve to the right of z = .83.

Probability
of a stockout P(x > 20)

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

❑ Solving for the Stockout Probability

Area = 1 - .7967
Area = .7967
= .2033

z
0 .83

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

❑ Standard Normal Probability Distribution

If the manager of Pep Zone wants the probability of a

stockout during replenishment lead-time to be no more than
.05, what should the reorder point be?

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

❑ Solving for the Reorder Point

Area = .9500

Area = .0500

z
0 z.05

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

❑ Solving for the Reorder Point

Step 1: Find the z-value that cuts off an area of .05 in the right
tail of the standard normal distribution.

z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
. . . . . . . . . . .
1.5 .9332 .9345 .9357 .9370 .9382 .9394 .9406 .9418 .9429 .9441
1.6 .9452 .9463 .9474 .9484 .9495 .9505 .9515 .9525 .9535 .9545
1.7 .9554 .9564 .9573 .9582 .9591 .9599 .9608 .9616 .9625 .9633
1.8 .9641 .9649 .9656 .9664 .9671 .9678 .9686 We look.9699
.9693 up .9706
1.9 .9713 .9719 .9726 .9732 .9738 .9744 .9750 the complement
.9756 .9761 .9767
. . . . . . . .
of the
.
tail area
. .
(1 - .05 = .95)

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

❑ Solving for the Reorder Point

Step 2: Convert z.05 to the corresponding value of x.

x =  + z.05
= 15 + 1.645(6)
= 24.87 or 25

A reorder point of 25 gallons will place the probability of a stockout

during lead-time at (slightly less than) .05.

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

❑ Solving for the Reorder Point

By raising the reorder point from 20 gallons to 25 gallons

on hand, the probability of a stockout decreases from about
.20 to .05.

This is a significant decrease in the chance that Pep Zone

will be out of stock and unable to meet a customer’s desire
to make a purchase.

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 USING EXCEL TO COMPUTE NORMAL PROBABILITIES

❑ Excel has two functions for computing cumulative probabilities

and x values for any normal distribution:

NORMDIST is used to compute the cumulative probability

given an x value.

NORMINV is used to compute the x value given a cumulative

probability.

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 USING EXCEL TO COMPUTE NORMAL PROBABILITIES

❑ Excel Formula Worksheet

A B
1 Probabilities: Normal Distribution
2
3 P (x > 20) =1-NORMDIST(20,15,6,TRUE)
4
5 Finding x Values, Given Probabilities
6
7 x value with .05 in upper tail =NORMINV(0.95,15,6)
8

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 USING EXCEL TO COMPUTE NORMAL PROBABILITIES

❑ Excel Value Worksheet

A B
1 Probabilities: Normal Distribution
2
3 P (x > 20) 0.2023
4
5 Finding x Values, Given Probabilities
6
7 x value with .05 in upper tail 24.87
8
Note: P(x > 20) = .2023 here using Excel, while our
previous manual approach using the z table yielded
.2033 due to our rounding of the z value.

4.4 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

4.5 NORMAL APPROXIMATION TO BINOMIAL AND POISSON
DISTRIBUTION

Binomial Approximation

Poisson Approximation
 Continuity Correction
The binomial and Poisson distributions are discrete random variables, whereas
the normal distribution is continuous. We need to take this into account when we
are using the normal distribution to approximate a binomial or Poisson using a
continuity correction.

When working out probabilities, we want to include whole rectangles, which is

what continuity correction is all about.

4.5 NORMAL APPROXIMATION TO BINOMIAL AND POISSON

DISTRIBUTION
 Example:
Suppose we toss a fair coin 20 times. What is the probability of getting between 9
and 11 heads?

4.5 NORMAL APPROXIMATION TO BINOMIAL AND POISSON

DISTRIBUTION
4.5 NORMAL APPROXIMATION TO BINOMIAL AND POISSON
DISTRIBUTION
4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

❑ The exponential probability distribution is useful in describing the

time it takes to complete a task.
❑ The exponential random variables can be used to describe:

o Time between vehicle arrivals at a toll booth

o Time required to complete a questionnaire
o Distance between major defects in a highway
4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION
 •

4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Density Function

1
f ( x) = e − x /  for x > 0,  > 0


where:  = mean
e = 2.71828

4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Cumulative Probabilities

P ( x  x 0 ) = 1 − e − xo / 

where:
x0 = some specific value of x

4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Example:

On the average, a certain computer has a life time of 10 years. If the life of
the computer is exponentially distributed.

a) Plot the exponential distribution curve.

b) What is the probability that a computer has a life of less than 7 years?
c) What is the probability that a computer has a life of more than 10
years?
d) What is the probability that a computer has a life of more than 7 years
but less than 10 years?
e) What is the median?
f) Find the variance.

4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Solution:

On the average, a certain computer has a life time of 10 years. If the life of
the computer is exponentially distributed.

a) Plot the exponential distribution curve.

Exponential Distribution Curve
0.12

0.1

0.08
f(x)

0.06

0.04

0.02

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
x

4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Solution:

On the average, a certain computer has a life time of 10 years. If the life of
the computer is exponentially distributed.

b) What is the probability that a computer has a life of less than 7 years?

4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Solution:

On the average, a certain computer has a life time of 10 years. If the life of
the computer is exponentially distributed.

c) What is the probability that a computer has a life of more than 10

years?

4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Solution:

On the average, a certain computer has a life time of 10 years. If the life of
the computer is exponentially distributed.

d) What is the probability that a computer has a life of more than 7 years
but less than 10 years?

4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

 ❑ Solution:

On the average, a certain computer has a life time of 10 years. If the life of
the computer is exponentially distributed.

e) What is the median?

f) Find the variance.

4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

USING EXCEL TO COMPUTE EXPONENTIAL PROBABILITIES

The EXPONDIST function can be used to compute

exponential probabilities.

The EXPONDIST function has three arguments:

1st The value of the random variable x

2nd 1/m the inverse of the mean

number of occurrences
3rd “TRUE” or “FALSE” in an interval

We will always enter

“TRUE” because we’re seeking
a cumulative probability.

4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

USING EXCEL TO COMPUTE EXPONENTIAL PROBABILITIES

❑ Excel Formula Worksheet

A B
1 Probabilities: Exponential Distribution
2
3 P (x < 18) =EXPONDIST(18,1/15,TRUE)
4 P (6 < x < 18) =EXPONDIST(18,1/15,TRUE)-EXPONDIST(6,1/15,TRUE)
5 P (x > 8) =1-EXPONDIST(8,1/15,TRUE)
6

4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

USING EXCEL TO COMPUTE EXPONENTIAL PROBABILITIES

❑ Excel Value Worksheet

A B
1 Probabilities: Exponential Distribution
2
3 P (x < 18) 0.6988
4 P (6 < x < 18) 0.3691
5 P (x > 8) 0.5866
6

4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

 EXPONENTIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Example: Al’s Full-Service Pump

The time between arrivals of cars at Al’s full-service gas pump

follows an exponential probability distribution with a mean time
between arrivals of 3 minutes. Al would like to know the
probability that the time between two successive arrivals will
be 2 minutes or less.

4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

 EXPONENTIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Example: Al’s Full-Service Pump

f(x)

.4 P(x < 2) = 1 - 2.71828-2/3 = 1 - .5134 = .4866

.3
.2
.1
x
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time Between Successive Arrivals (mins.)

4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

USING EXCEL TO COMPUTE EXPONENTIAL PROBABILITIES

❑ Excel Formula Worksheet

A B
1 Probabilities: Exponential Distribution
2
3 P (x < 2) =EXPONDIST(2,1/3,TRUE)
4

4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

USING EXCEL TO COMPUTE EXPONENTIAL PROBABILITIES

❑ Excel Value Worksheet

A B
1 Probabilities: Exponential Distribution
2
3 P (x < 2) 0.4866
4

4.6 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE POISSON AND
EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTIONS

The Poisson distribution

provides an appropriate description
of the number of occurrences
per interval

The exponential distribution

provides an appropriate description
of the length of the interval
between occurrences