2023 BUSA3015 – BUSINESS FORECASTING

Case Study Report 2 (the same data from Report 1 using different forecasting techniques!)

Due: 11:55 pm, Thursday 25th May

Format
The submission of this assessment requires:
▪ A numerical submission for Exercise 1 and Exercise 2 via an iLearn quiz tool.
▪ A written submission for Exercise 3 via a PDF submission through Turn-It-In.
▪ An Excel file submission using an iLearn submission link.

The main tables, charts and results should be presented throughout the report to highlight your
responses to the questions. There is no need for an appendix.

For the numerical submission: an online quiz tool will be available on iLearn from the 18th of May
where you can type in your numerical answers. All answers are to be rounded to 2 decimal places.

For the written submission: 750 words (+/- 15%) not counting labels and numbers on graphs AND no
more than four A4 sheets in portrait/vertical mode (use the template DOC file provided on iLearn). A
Turn-It-In submission link will be available on iLearn from the 18th of May.

Consider the guidelines above as an authentic assessment that mirrors actual business practice of
documentation guidelines when preparing applications for jobs or business tenders.

There will be a deduction of 10% of the total available marks for every page above 4 pages and/or
every 50 words above 863 words (whichever gives the greater penalty). For example, the first extra 50
words over, e.g. 12 words, will incur a 10% deduction.

Convert your DOC/X file into a PDF prior to submission. You will also have to upload your XLS/X file
through iLearn. Only the PDF file will be marked, the XLS/X file will not be marked.

There will be a deduction of 5% of the total available marks made from the total awarded mark for
each 24-hour period, or part thereof, that the submission is late (for example, 25 hours late in
submission – 10% penalty). This penalty does not apply for cases in which an application for Special
Consideration is made and approved.

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For the written part of this assignment – the answers must be typed on the pre-formatted DOC file
that has been uploaded on iLearn.

Please do not alter the formatting of the pre-formatted DOC file:

▪ Do not change the font size.
▪ Do not change the line spacing.
▪ Do not change the paragraph settings.
▪ Do not change the page margins.
▪ Do not change the headers or footers.
▪ Do not edit or delete the questions.
▪ Do not edit any other component of the file apart from typing your answers and cutting and pasting
relevant output.

As per the pre-formatted DOC file on iLearn, your answers will be in Calibri font, size 11. The answers
are to be in black font.

Not adhering to the above will results in a penalisation of marks. This includes a 10% penalty per
page over the limit and/or every 50 words above 863 words (whichever gives the greater penalty).
For example, the first extra 50 words over, e.g. 12 words, will incur a 10% deduction.

A critical thinking skill is about making judgments about the information that is relevant and can be
presented in an efficient and effective way.

If you want relevant output to be marked, you can cut-and-paste relevant output into these pages.
Any pages including appendices (beyond the required 4 pages) will not be marked.

Do not use appendices, all relevant output from Excel or Minitab must be included within the body,
within your answer. Appendices will not be marked.

Students have to write their own words to complete the assignment.

All questions about the assignment must be via the iLearn “General discussion forum”.

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A note about ChatGPT and other similar tools

Questions are worded in such a way that you need to critically think of the best way to actually answer
the question. Most questions are not direct, and you will need to use your critical thinking skills to
figure out the tools / tests / techniques / and more to best answer each question. This is a key
employability skill when you enter the workforce. You will be hired on the basis of being able to make
these decisions, rather than being micro-managed / micro-directed.
If you use a generative artificial intelligence (AI) tool (such as ChatGPT or similar), without citing the
source, you will be penalised for violating academic integrity.

As we have around 400 students in the unit, you also run the risk of plagiarism against other students
by using such tools.

If you wish, you may include screenshot/s of any such AI response, and then showcase your own
response (in typed words) which exhibits your critical thinking where you have modified the AI
response to display higher-level thinking skills in line with the unit’s learning outcomes.

You are still restricted to the designated page limit.

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The Case Study
You are repeating the overall case study from Report 1 but using regression forecasting instead.
You are employed by an Australian firm that produces household goods. The recently signed Economic
Co-operation and Trade Agreement between Australia and India has given your firm an incentive to
consider expansion into India.

As part of your role in the Business Analytics and Data Analytics team, you have been asked to forecast
household goods (retailing), as part of a wider report being commissioned by your firm.
Questions
You are to use the exact same data sets that you used in Report 1. You do not need to re-download
the data. If your data is lost, the instructions for obtaining it are repeated (from Report 1) below:
▪ Obtain the ABS statistics for Retail Trade – Turnover – Total (State) – Household goods retailing –
available at:
▪ https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-
australia/latest-release#data-downloads
▪ Download Table 1.
▪ For the purposes of this report you are to consider series, Retail Trade – Turnover – Total (State) –
Household goods retailing data. There are three related series in the table: Original, Seasonally-
adjusted, and Trend (please choose carefully throughout this report!)
▪ For the purposes of this report, only consider the data from February 2017 to January 2022 as
the sample of data that is available to you – that is, ignore any recent observations.
▪ This means that the first actual observation in your Excel file is from February 2017 and your last
actual observation in your Excel file is from January 2022.
▪ Use Excel and no other statistical software for the purposes of this report.
▪ You may use Minitab for constructing correlograms.

This report will require three separate submissions.

The numerical responses need to be submitted via a quiz tool in iLearn.
The written responses need to be submitted via a PDF uploaded via Turn-It-In in iLearn.
The Excel file that you used to generate your forecasts – not assessed directly, but to evidence that
this is your own work.
Instances of plagiarism will be dealt with according to the relevant policies and procedures.

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Numerical responses to be submitted via a quiz tool on iLearn:

Exercise 1 – Application (10 marks)

As for Report 1:
For the purposes of this report, only consider the data from February 2017 to January 2022 as the
sample of data that is available to you – that is, ignore any recent observations.
This means that the first actual observation in your Excel file is from February 2017 and your last
actual observation in your Excel file is from January 2022.

For the Seasonally-adjusted data Retail Trade – Turnover – Total (State) – Household goods retailing
(Series ID: A3348603J) available in Table 1: Forecast the out-of-sample values for every month in the
period February 2022 – July 2023 (both months inclusive) using a simple linear regression with an
intercept, and time (t = 1, 2, 3,… ) as the explanatory variable.

Before you begin Exercise 1, let’s check that you have the right data! The average should be 4964!

Once you perform this regression, what are the following numerical values:
1. The coefficient of time.
2. The t-statistic for the coefficient of time.
3. The p-value for the coefficient of time.
4. The value of the intercept.
5. The value of R2 expressed as a number between 0 and 1.
6. The within-sample forecast for January 2022.
7. The out-of-sample forecast for February 2022.
8. The out-of-sample forecast for July 2023.
9. The standard error of the regression.
10. The F Statistic (not the p-value!).

[Please turn over]

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Exercise 2 – Application (10 marks)
For the purposes of this report, only consider the data from February 2017 to January 2022 as the
sample of data that is available to you – that is, ignore any recent observations.
This means that the first actual observation in your Excel file is from February 2017 and your last
actual observation in your Excel file is from January 2022.

For the Original data for data for Retail Trade – Turnover – Total (State) – Household goods retailing
(Series ID: A3348600A) available in Table 1: Forecast the out-of-sample values for every month in the
period February 2022 – July 2023 (both months inclusive) using a multiple linear regression with an
intercept, time as an explanatory variable, and 11 dummy variables for all months except January –
hence use January as the base.

Before you begin Exercise 2, let’s check that you have the right data! The average should be 4969.2!

Once you perform this regression, what are the following numerical values:
11. The coefficient of time.
12. The t-statistic for the coefficient of time.
13. The p-value for the coefficient of time.
14. The value of the intercept.
15. The value of R2 expressed as a number between 0 and 1.
16. The within-sample forecast for January 2022.
17. The out-of-sample forecast for February 2022.
18. The out-of-sample forecast for July 2023.
19. The standard error of the regression.
20. The F Statistic (not the p-value!).

Exercise 1 (10 marks) + Exercise 2 (10 marks) + Exercise 3 (60 marks) = Report 1 (80 marks)
[Please turn over]

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Written responses submitted via a PDF upload via Turn-It-In in iLearn:

Exercise 3 (60 marks)

750 words (+/- 15%) not counting labels and numbers on graphs AND no more than four A4 sheets
in portrait/vertical mode (use the template DOC file provided on iLearn):

Your Exercise 3 responses should refer to Exercise 2. In addition to this, you may refer to Exercise 1.

For the model in Exercise 2, given that you have the actual data for the out-of-sample period (you
considered the within-sample period to end in January 2022 – but you do have some data for February
2022 and onwards) – discuss your forecasting method, your forecasts, and the business insights from
these, using the following steps:

▪ Attribution (5 marks)
▪ Scope (5 marks)
▪ Application (5 marks)
▪ Analysis (10 marks)
▪ Articulation of Issues (10 marks)
▪ Critique (15 marks)
▪ Position (10 marks)

You must use the above steps as sub-headings in your response. Failure to do so will result in a loss
of marks.

Note in the rubric on iLearn – "sources" are from within the assignment including your own sources
of generated results. You do not need to cite the materials provided via iLearn. Given the nature of
this task, you will not be penalised for not referring to other sources (although other sources may
give you unique insights for your responses). However, in your report, you should consider referring
to the information provided by the ABS on the site that is used to download the data
You do not need a reference list. However, you may include one for completeness after your 4 pages.

Please turn over for pointers for Exercise 3.

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Pointers
At least one week before you need to submit Report 2, you will be provided with feedback from Report
1. Please go through this feedback thoroughly before you submit Report 2.

For each of these sub-headings below, at least consider the notes that follow (you can consider more!).
If you use a generative artificial intelligence (AI) tool (such as ChatGPT or similar), without citing the
source, you will be penalised for violating academic integrity.
As we have around 400 students in the unit, you also run the risk of plagiarism against other students
by using such tools.
If you wish, you may include screenshot/s of any such AI response, and then showcase your own
response (in typed words) which exhibits your critical thinking where you have modified the AI
response to display higher-level thinking skills in line with the unit’s learning outcomes.
You are restricted to the designated page limit.
You are to use own words throughout the report.

Attribution – Consider the marking rubric.

Scope – Explain the model in Exercise 2 by using language that is understood by a non-technical
audience.

Application – Describe and explain how you applied the data and your knowledge to perform the
forecasts in Exercise 2. Describe and explain using language that is understood by a technical audience.

Analysis – Consider the marking rubric, to assist you, you should include:
A plot of the considered sample (February 2017 – January 2022) from Exercise 2 and the forecasts
(within and out-of-sample) on one chart.
+ A description of the chart and an analysis of your forecast.
Another plot of the actual data that is beyond the considered sample (February 2022 to the present)
and the forecasts.
+ A description of the chart and an analysis your forecast.

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Articulation of Issues – Consider the marking rubric, to assist you, you should:
Perform the appropriate check/s and test/s – provide some of this evidence.
What are the issues based on your check/s and test/s above?
Note: we have discussed and conducted several check/s and test/s when we are forecasting in this unit
– and it is up to you to determine which checks and tests are appropriate – to determine issues, if any.

Critique – Consider the marking rubric, to assist you, you should:

Critically evaluate the model from Exercise 2 in Report 2 on its own merits.
Critically evaluate the model from Exercise 2 in Report 2 vs. the model from Exercise 2 in Report 1.
Critically evaluate these models from both business forecasting & business intelligence points of view.

Position – Consider the marking rubric, to assist you, you should consider:
Given all of the discussion above, as well your discussion in Report 1, state your position regarding
your choice of model – from both a business forecasting and a business intelligence points of view.

Exercise 1 (10 marks) + Exercise 2 (10 marks) + Exercise 3 (60 marks) = Report 1 (80 marks)