MYP-5E-Probability-(Criteria A,C)-Test-03 [67 marks]

1. [Maximum mark: 6] 20N.1.SL.TZ0.T_6

Srinivasa places the nine labelled balls shown below into a box.

Srinivasa then chooses two balls at random, one at a time, from the box. The first
ball is not replaced before he chooses the second.

(a.i) Find the probability that the first ball chosen is labelled A. [1]

Markscheme

9
(
1

3
, 0. 333, 0. 333333 … , 33. 3%) (A1) (C1)

[1 mark]

(a.ii) Find the probability that the first ball chosen is labelled A or
labelled N. [1]

Markscheme

9
(0. 556, 0. 555555 … , 55. 6%) (A1) (C1)

[1 mark]

(b) Find the probability that the second ball chosen is labelled A,
given that the first ball chosen was labelled N. [2]

Markscheme

8
(0. 375, 37. 5%) (A1)(A1) (C2)
 Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator.

[2 marks]

(c) Find the probability that both balls chosen are labelled N. [2]

Markscheme

9
×
1

8
(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for a correct compound probability calculation seen.

72
(
1

36
, 0. 0278, 0. 0277777 … , 2. 78%) (A1) (C2)

[2 marks]
2. [Maximum mark: 6] 20N.1.SL.TZ0.T_14
Andre will play in the semi-final of a tennis tournament.

If Andre wins the semi-final he will progress to the final. If Andre loses the semi-
final, he will not progress to the final.

If Andre wins the final, he will be the champion.

The probability that Andre will win the semi-final is p. If Andre wins the semi-
final, then the probability he will be the champion is 0. 6.

(a) Complete the values in the tree diagram.

[1]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure. It appeared in a paper that
permitted the use of a calculator, and so might not be suitable for all forms
of practice.
 (A1) (C1)

Note: Award (A1) for the correct pair of probabilities.

[1 mark]

The probability that Andre will not be the champion is 0. 58.

(b) Find the value of p. [2]

Markscheme

p × 0. 4 + (1 − p) = 0. 58 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying and adding correct probabilities for losing
equated to 0. 58.

OR

p × 0. 6 = 1 − 0. 58 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying correct probabilities for winning equated
to 1 − 0. 58 or 0. 42.
 (p =) 0. 7 (A1)(ft) (C2)

Note: Follow through from their part (a). Award the final (A1)(ft) only if their
p is within the range 0 < p < 1.

[2 marks]

(c) Given that Andre did not become the champion, find the
probability that he lost in the semi-final. [3]

Markscheme

(A1)(ft)(A1)
0.3 1−0.7
( )
0.58 0.58

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for their correct numerator. Follow through from part
(b). Award (A1) for the correct denominator.

OR

0.3

0.3+0.7×0.4
(A1)(ft)(A1)(ft)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for their correct numerator. Follow through from part
(b). Award (A1)(ft) for their correct calculation of Andre losing the semi-final
or winning the semi-final and then losing in the final. Follow through from
their parts (a) and (b).

15

29
(0. 517, 0. 517241 … , 51. 7%) (A1)(ft) (C3)

Note: Follow through from parts (a) and (b).

[3 marks]
3. [Maximum mark: 6] 20N.1.SL.TZ0.T_14
Andre will play in the semi-final of a tennis tournament.

If Andre wins the semi-final he will progress to the final. If Andre loses the semi-
final, he will not progress to the final.

If Andre wins the final, he will be the champion.

The probability that Andre will win the semi-final is p. If Andre wins the semi-
final, then the probability he will be the champion is 0. 6.

(a) Complete the values in the tree diagram.

[1]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure. It appeared in a paper that
permitted the use of a calculator, and so might not be suitable for all forms
of practice.
 (A1) (C1)

Note: Award (A1) for the correct pair of probabilities.

[1 mark]

The probability that Andre will not be the champion is 0. 58.

(b) Find the value of p. [2]

Markscheme

p × 0. 4 + (1 − p) = 0. 58 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying and adding correct probabilities for losing
equated to 0. 58.

OR

p × 0. 6 = 1 − 0. 58 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying correct probabilities for winning equated
to 1 − 0. 58 or 0. 42.
 (p =) 0. 7 (A1)(ft) (C2)

Note: Follow through from their part (a). Award the final (A1)(ft) only if their
p is within the range 0 < p < 1.

[2 marks]

(c) Given that Andre did not become the champion, find the
probability that he lost in the semi-final. [3]

Markscheme

(A1)(ft)(A1)
0.3 1−0.7
( )
0.58 0.58

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for their correct numerator. Follow through from part
(b). Award (A1) for the correct denominator.

OR

0.3

0.3+0.7×0.4
(A1)(ft)(A1)(ft)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for their correct numerator. Follow through from part
(b). Award (A1)(ft) for their correct calculation of Andre losing the semi-final
or winning the semi-final and then losing in the final. Follow through from
their parts (a) and (b).

15

29
(0. 517, 0. 517241 … , 51. 7%) (A1)(ft) (C3)

Note: Follow through from parts (a) and (b).

[3 marks]
4. [Maximum mark: 6] 19M.1.SL.TZ1.T_12
The diagram shows a circular horizontal board divided into six equal sectors. The
sectors are labelled white (W), yellow (Y) and blue (B).

A pointer is pinned to the centre of the board. The pointer is to be spun and
when it stops the colour of the sector on which the pointer stops is recorded. The
pointer is equally likely to stop on any of the six sectors.

Eva will spin the pointer twice. The following tree diagram shows all the possible
outcomes.
(a) Find the probability that both spins are yellow. [2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure.

1 1 1 2

3
×
3
OR (
3
) (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying correct probabilities.

9
(0.111, 0.111111…, 11.1%) (A1) (C2)

[2 marks]
(b) Find the probability that at least one of the spins is yellow. [3]

Markscheme

(
1

2
×
1

3
) + (
1

6
×
1

3
) +
1

3
(M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for ( 12 ×

1

3
) and (
1

6
×
1

3
) or equivalent, and (M1) for
1

3
and adding only the three correct probabilities.

OR

2
2
1 − (
3
) (M1)(M1)

2
2 2
Note: Award (M1) for 3 seen and (M1) for subtracting ( 3 ) from 1. This
may be shown in a tree diagram with “yellow” and “not yellow” branches.

9
(0.556, 0.555555…, 55.6%) (A1)(ft) (C3)

Note: Follow through marks may be awarded if their answer to part (a) is
used in a correct calculation.

[3 marks]

(c) Write down the probability that the second spin is yellow, given
that the first spin is blue. [1]

Markscheme

3
(0.333, 0.333333…, 33.3%) (A1) (C1)

[1 mark]
5. [Maximum mark: 16] 18M.2.SL.TZ2.T_1
In a company it is found that 25 % of the employees encountered traffic on their
way to work. From those who encountered traffic the probability of being late
for work is 80 %.

From those who did not encounter traffic, the probability of being late for work
is 15 %.

The tree diagram illustrates the information.

(a.i) Write down the value of a. [1]

Markscheme

a = 0.2 (A1)

[1 mark]

(a.ii) Write down the value of b. [1]

Markscheme
 b = 0.85 (A1)

[1 mark]

(b.i) Use the tree diagram to find the probability that an

employee encountered traffic and was late for work. [2]

Markscheme

0.25 × 0.8 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for a correct product.

= 0.2 (
1

5
, 20%) (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

(b.ii) Use the tree diagram to find the probability that an

employee was late for work. [3]

Markscheme

0.25 × 0.8 + 0.75 × 0.15 (A1)(ft)(M1)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for their (0.25 × 0.8) and (0.75 × 0.15), (M1) for adding
two products.

= 0.313 (0.3125,
5

16
, 31.3%) (A1)(ft)(G3)

Note: Award the final (A1)(ft) only if answer does not exceed 1. Follow
through from part (b)(i).

[3 marks]
(b.iii) Use the tree diagram to find the probability that an
employee encountered traffic given that they were late for
work. [3]

Markscheme

0.25×0.8

0.25×0.8+0.75×0.15
(A1)(ft)(A1)(ft)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for a correct numerator (their part (b)(i)), (A1)(ft) for a
correct denominator (their part (b)(ii)). Follow through from parts (b)(i) and
(b)(ii).

16
= 0.64 (
25
, 64% ) (A1)(ft)(G3)

Note: Award final (A1)(ft) only if answer does not exceed 1.

[3 marks]

The company investigates the different means of transport used by their

employees in the past year to travel to work. It was found that the three most
common means of transport used to travel to work were public transportation
(P ), car (C ) and bicycle (B ).

The company finds that 20 employees travelled by car, 28 travelled by bicycle

and 19 travelled by public transportation in the last year.

Some of the information is shown in the Venn diagram.

(c.i) Find the value of x. [1]

Markscheme

(x =) 3 (A1)

[1 Mark]

(c.ii) Find the value of y. [1]

Markscheme

(y =) 10 (A1)(ft)

Note: Following through from part (c)(i) but only if their x is less than or
equal to 13.

[1 Mark]

There are 54 employees in the company.

(d) Find the number of employees who, in the last year, did not
travel to work by car, bicycle or public transportation. [2]

Markscheme

54 − (10 + 3 + 4 + 2 + 6 + 8 + 13) (M1)

 Note: Award (M1) for subtracting their correct sum from 54. Follow through
from their part (c).

=8 (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) only if their sum does not exceed 54. Follow through
from their part (c).

[2 marks]

(e) Find n ((C ∪ B) ∩ P ).

′
[2]

Markscheme

6 + 8 + 13 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for summing 6, 8 and 13.

27 (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]
6. [Maximum mark: 15] 18M.2.SL.TZ1.T_5
Contestants in a TV gameshow try to get through three walls by passing through
doors without falling into a trap. Contestants choose doors at random.
If they avoid a trap they progress to the next wall.
If a contestant falls into a trap they exit the game before the next contestant
plays.
Contestants are not allowed to watch each other attempt the game.

The first wall has four doors with a trap behind one door.

Ayako is a contestant.

(a) Write down the probability that Ayako avoids the trap in this
wall. [1]

Markscheme
 * This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure.

4
(0.75, 75%) (A1)

[1 mark]

Natsuko is the second contestant.

(b) Find the probability that only one of Ayako and Natsuko falls
into a trap while attempting to pass through a door in the first
wall. [3]

Markscheme

3 1 1 3 3 1

4
×
4
+
4
×
4
OR 2 ×
4
×
4
(M1)(M1)

1 3
Note: Award (M1) for their product 4 × 4 seen, and (M1) for adding their
two products or multiplying their product by 2.

=
3

8
(
6

16
, 0.375, 37.5% ) (A1)(ft) (G3)

Note: Follow through from part (a), but only if the sum of their two
fractions is 1.

[3 marks]

The second wall has five doors with a trap behind two of the doors.

The third wall has six doors with a trap behind three of the doors.

The following diagram shows the branches of a probability tree diagram for a
contestant in the game.
(c) Copy the probability tree diagram and write down the relevant
probabilities along the branches. [3]

Markscheme

(A1)

(ft)(A1)(A1)

Note: Award (A1) for each correct pair of branches. Follow through from
part (a).
 [3 marks]

(d.i) A contestant is chosen at random. Find the probability that this

contestant fell into a trap while attempting to pass through a
door in the second wall. [2]

Markscheme

4
×
2

5
(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct probabilities multiplied together.

3
=
10
(0.3, 30% ) (A1)(ft) (G2)

Note: Follow through from their tree diagram or part (a).

[2 marks]

(d.ii) A contestant is chosen at random. Find the probability that this

contestant fell into a trap. [3]

Markscheme

3 2 3 1 3 2 3 3 3
1 −
4
×
5
×
6
OR 4
+
4
×
5
+
4
×
5
×
6
(M1)(M1)

3 3 3
Note: Award (M1) for 4
×
5
×
6
and (M1) for subtracting their correct
1 3 2
probability from 1, or adding to their 4
+
4
×
5
.

93 31
=
120
(
40
, 0.775, 77.5% ) (A1)(ft) (G2)

Note: Follow through from their tree diagram.

[3 marks]

(e) 120 contestants attempted this game.

 Find the expected number of contestants who fell into a trap [3]
while attempting to pass through a door in the third wall.

Markscheme

4
×
3

5
×
3

6
× 120 (M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for

) and (M1) for
3 3 3 3 3 3 27 9
× × ( × × OR OR
4 5 6 4 5 6 120 40

multiplying by 120.

= 27 (A1)(ft) (G3)

Note: Follow through from their tree diagram or their 3

4
×
3

5
×
3

6
from
their calculation in part (d)(ii).

[3 marks]
7. [Maximum mark: 12] 20N.2.SL.TZ0.T_2
On a school excursion, 100 students visited an amusement park. The
amusement park’s main attractions are rollercoasters (R), water slides (W ), and
virtual reality rides (V ).

The students were asked which main attractions they visited. The results are
shown in the Venn diagram.

A total of 74 students visited the rollercoasters or the water slides.

(a.i) Find the value of a. [2]

Markscheme

74 − (32 + 12 + 10 + 9 + 5) OR 74 − 68 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for setting up a correct expression.

(a =) 6 (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]
(a.ii) Find the value of b. [2]

Markscheme

100 − (74 + 18) (M1)

OR

100 − 92 (M1)

OR

100 − (32 + 9 + 5 + 12 + 10 + 18 + 6) (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for setting up a correct expression. Follow through from
part (a)(i) but only for a ≥ 0.

(b =) 8 (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Follow through from part(a)(i). The value of b must be greater or

equal to zero for the (A1)(ft) to be awarded.

[2 marks]

(b) Find the number of students who visited at least two types of
main attraction. [2]

Markscheme

9 + 5 + 12 + 10 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for adding 9, 5, 12 and 10.

 36 (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

(c) Write down the value of n( R ∩ W) . [1]

Markscheme

14 (A1)

[1 mark]

(d.i) Find the probability that a randomly selected student

visited the rollercoasters. [2]

Markscheme

58

100
(
29

50
, 0. 58, 58%) (A1)(A1)(G2)

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator. Award(A1) for the correct
denominator. Award (A0) for 58 only.

[2 marks]

(d.ii) Find the probability that a randomly selected student visited

the virtual reality rides. [1]

Markscheme

45

100
(
9

20
, 0. 45, 45%) (A1)(ft)
 Note: Follow through from their denominator from part (d)(i).

[1 mark]

(e) Hence determine whether the events in parts (d)(i) and (d)(ii)
are independent. Justify your reasoning. [2]

Markscheme

they are not independent (A1)(ft)

58

100
×
45

100
≠
17

100
OR 0. 261 ≠ 0. 17 (R1)

Note: Comparison of numerical values must be seen for (R1) to be awarded.

Do not award (A1)(R0). Follow through from parts (d)(i) and (d)(ii).

[2 marks]

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