EM Final Project
EM Final Project
In 2001, Jim O’Neill was the first economist to coin the presence of the emerging
markets describing how fast growing these markets are and will be and their global
domination by 2050.
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Brazil, Russia, India and China held their first summit in 2009 to declare that
BRIC is a formal institution. The summit focused primarily to improve the global
economic situation and reforming financial institutions. Then, South Africa was
invited to join in December 2010 and was re-named by the “BRICS”.
This paper studies the impact on the market taking the case of South Africa when
joining the BRICS.
An emerging country is one whose economy is not yet fully developed yet either
was in the recent past or very likely will be in the near future. Emerging countries
are also known as emerging economies because the emphasis is on their economic
development. There are some emerging countries that you have probably heard of
and some that may be less familiar. Nevertheless, pay attention to these countries –
you probably buy food that was grown there or wear clothes that were made there.
You will probably hear more about these countries soon.
All the members of BRICS have variety of economic history and successful
strategies that have played significant role in stimulating the growth in their
respective economies. All the countries have opened up their economies to varying
extents for foreign trade and investment. Despite the differences in their economic
histories, all these five countries have witnessed high rates of growth and with their
available resources, there seems to be high potential for growth of these
economies.
BRICs have floated into the economies in 2001 and played a significant role in the
global economy afterwards. They attained an important position in the world as the
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capital receivers, potential markets of consumers, and the producers of
goods/services.
Around 40 percent of the global population comprises the BRICS economy as they
represent approximately 25 percent of the total global GDP in terms of PPP.
Moreover, due to their large share of land, they possess a huge amount of natural
resources.
The purpose of this paper is to study a case of EM and how it has changed and
implemented some and external strategies in order to succeed in this market
globally.
The economy of South Africa has the largest GDP in terms of (PPP) purchasing
power parity in Africa with a of 24 percent and according to World Bank, it is
ranked as an upper-middle income economy. Though, a quarter of the economy is
unemployed, and a quarter live below US $1.25 per day. But it has a comparative
advantage in the production of mining, manufacturing and agriculture sector. It
shifted from primary and secondary economy to the tertiary sector driven economy
that accounts for almost 65 percent of the GDP.
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The first part of the paper will review the theoretical frame work of the emerging
markets; the main definitions describing what defines an emerging market, its
characteristics, the different listings of the countries. The central part studies South
Africa from a less developing economy to a middle-class economy. An economical
and statistical statement will be presented in the final part.
Altogether, for the BRICS countries, some of the main factors that are important
for success of organization include: usage of technology, cultural realities,
increased mobility, cost-value relationships and most importantly, high diversity at
the workplace. These markets have sprung up due to globalization. The business
culture of South Africa is different from the other four members. In the BRIC
countries, the communication is more indirect and the organizations have a
hierarchical structure (Budd, 2012). An inclusive and diverse culture needs to be
developed in the countries as they need to manage a highly diverse workforce from
all around the globe.
These countries are based on socio-cultural and socio-economic texts which means
that the concept of corporate social responsibility in the global environment would
be changing soon (Lund-Thomsen & Wad, 2014). All these countries have
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embarked on economic expansion and have introduced reforms to open their
markets to the global scene.
For these emerging markets, there are great risks as well as opportunities for the
CSR or responsible stewardship. Doing business in these countries is a bit difficult
as most are corrupted, have weak governance, lack public transparency and have
high records of bribery and poverty. Therefore, first of all, this concept or core
value needs to be integrated locally in these rising economies so that they can
come on equal status with the rest of the economic world. It is very important for
the BRICS countries to practice corporate social responsibility within their local
markets, as it would ensure that they attract more foreign business in the future.
The concept of responsible stewardship clearly states that we must look beyond
our personal benefit as it is our duty to share the available resources with the rest
of community. So, for the emerging market economies like BRICS, first
incorporating this phenomenon at home is critical so that they can deal with the
global requirements and standards (Ardichvili et al., 2013).
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The emerging market economy the term was originally coined by Antoine
W. Van Agtmoel of the International Finance Corporation of the World
Bank – the emerging economy is defined as an economy with low to middle
per capita income and it constitutes 80 percent of the global population and
represents about 20 percent of the world economies.
Learn more in: FDI Inflows and Military Expenditure: A Study Across the
Emerging Market Economies
Are known as countries that have not fully industrialized but are pursuing
those qualities that are synonymous with developing countries. Often
with emerging economies, unemployment and poverty levels are high.
There are several emerging economies with superpowers among them being
China and Russia.
Learn more in: SME Sustainability and Growth in Emerging Markets
Economies that cannot yet be considered as developed and the term has
subsequently superseded that of developing country.
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Learn more in: The IHS Library and Its Response to the COVID-19
Pandemic
They refer to the countries whose economies are not developed yet.
However, they have a potential to be a developed country.
Learn more in: Measurement of Economic and Banking Stability in
Emerging Markets by Considering Income Inequality and Nonperforming
Loans
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Are the most economically progresses of developing countries. In terms of
GNP per capita, they correspond to the medium-low and medium-high
country groups but are characterized by a regulated and functioning
securities exchange, or in the process of developing one, and the fact that
shares traded on the stock exchanges must be available for purchase by
foreign investors, even if subject to certain restrictions.
Learn more in: Open Innovation in SMEs: Contexts of Developing and
Transitional Countries
They are the economies promise huge potential for growth together with
some risks.
Learn more in: Conflict Risk and Defense Expenses and Their Impact on
the Economic Growth
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high production levels and significant industrialization in their transition to
become more advanced.
Learn more in: Integrated Reporting for Inclusive and Sustainable Global
Capitalism
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(b) Characteristics of emerging markets, with an explanation of each
characteristic
1. Market volatility
Emerging markets are often attractive to foreign investors due to the high (ROI)
return on investment they can provide. In the transition from being an agriculture-
based economy to a developed economy, countries often require a large influx of
capital from foreign sources due to a shortage of domestic capital.
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Governments of emerging markets tend to implement policies that favor
industrialization and rapid economic growth. Such policies lead to lower
unemployment, higher disposable income per capita, higher investments, and
better infrastructure. On the other hand, developed countries, such as the USA,
Germany, and Japan, experience low rates of economic growth due to early
industrialization.
Emerging markets usually achieve a low-middle income per capita relative to other
countries, due to their dependence on agricultural activities. As the economy
pursues industrialization and manufacturing activities, income per capita increases
with GDP. Lower average incomes also function as incentives for higher economic
growth.
5. Swinging currency
The overall goals of emerging markets are rapid industrialization and a better
quality of life for their citizens. If experts consider a country to be an emerging
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market, it suggests positive economic progress in those countries. That means it
can have increased liquidity in local debt and equity markets, increased trade
volume and foreign direct investment. It can develop modern financial and
regulatory institutions. Currently.
12
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https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/OEMDC
14
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/ZAF
Excel available
At any of these institutions, a country can be removed from the list by either
upgrading it to developed nation status or downgrading it to a frontier nation.
Likewise, developed nations may be downgraded to an emerging market, as was
the case with Greece. Frontier markets may be upgraded to an emerging market,
as was the case for Qatar and Argentina.
Some of the most rapidly emerging countries include Brazil, Turkey, Russia, India,
and China. Other emerging countries include the oil rich countries
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of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman,
and Iraq.
Many of these countries are immensely wealthy because of their oil exports, yet
that wealth does not come from a well-developed private sector and job growth.
Because these countries depend almost exclusively on a single resource – oil – for
their growth, a collapse in oil prices could set their economics back decades.
Other emerging countries are found in Eastern Europe, in the former Soviet Union
– Latvia, Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, and Slovakia.
Because of their experiences under communism, they are less developed than
countries in Western Europe and are still developing their economies to catch up.
However, the European Union aims to increase equity across European countries,
particularly those that were part of the Soviet Union, to help improve the economic
outlook and quality of life for the past Soviet countries. Kazakhstan is a former
Soviet country that is located in Central Asia rather than Europe, and it is also an
emerging country.
Many emerging countries have poor records of human rights, and critics claim that
their governments are placing economic growth ahead of the well-being of its
citizens. The governments of several emerging countries are known to engage in
systemic human rights violations.
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Projected Growth in Real Annual
Name
GDP Percentage
India 8.20%
China 4.40%
Nigeria 3.40%
Mexico 2.00%
Brazil 0.80%
Russia -8.50%
1. Brazil
In Brazil, the business culture is open and friendly; the key is building
relationships and so, lively and heated conversations are a normal form of
expression. The companies remain hierarchical and government set work
policies are strictly followed like the timings from 9:00 am to 6:00 pm (Tu,
Lin & Chang, 2011). Moreover, an hour-long break is mandatory for lunch
and overtime pay is necessary. During the lunch break, the employees must
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leave the secured work areas as it is a necessity to corporate with the strict
labor laws in the country. Organizations require providing transportation and
meal vouchers to the employees. Due to high globalization, universal
standards need to be implemented.
Brazil’s economy on a relative basis grew rapidly during the early 2010s at a rate
of 7.5%. Due to political instability and trade sanctions, however, the growth rate
slowed down and became negative in 2016 (-3.5%). Brazil also experienced
considerable improvements in income levels and poverty reduction in 2003-2014,
but changes have been sluggish since 2015 due to lower economic activity.
The Brazilian economy has been affected largely by political uncertainties and
lower government expenditure. However, the outlook for the country’s future is
positive. The domestic economy grew 0.6% in 2019 and is expected to sustain the
growth through infrastructure improvements and foreign investments, along with
its reliance on agricultural commodities like soybean and coffee.
Brazil has been a significant driver of growth in Latin America as the largest
economy. The country is involved in recovering from the worst recession in its
history. This recovery has resulted in a 1.1% increase in GDP growth. 3 The
inflation rate has been reduced to 2.13%.4
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iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ)
Direxion Daily Brazil Bull 2X Shares (BRZU)
iShares MSCI Brazil Small-Cap ETF (EWZS)6
2. Russia
Russia has transformed from a globally isolated, and centrally planned
economy to a globally integrated, and market-based economy. Business
leaders are accepting responsibility and making their own decisions but still
being too independent is a negative; the businesses must place the
community over their individual businesses. The staff involvement is
minimal in Russian businesses and the organizations are largely hierarchical.
Space refers to power and authority; status is also very important. In Russian
businesses, formal paper trails and documentations are important. Along
with other formal settings, dressing up is also critical as first impressions
and images are significant (Lo & Hiscock, n.d.). And the work environment
is cheerful with personal artifacts and decorative touches by the employees
to consider it their second home.
Driven primarily by oil exports and a rise in oil prices, Russia experienced
exponential growth in its GDP during the period 1999-2008 (before the Global
Financial Crisis). The transition from communism to capitalism that has been
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taking place since 1991 has boosted economic growth in the country through
economic reforms and an export-oriented trade policy.
However, since 2014, Russia’s economy has been negatively affected by political
conflicts and trade sanctions that have been imposed by the US, Canada, Japan,
and the EU, along with fluctuations in the price of oil, which accounts for close to
52% of Russian exports. The Russian economy grew at a rate of 1.7% in 2019 and
is expected to grow faster if geopolitical tensions with trade partners like the US,
Canada, Japan, and the EU reduce.
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3. India
In India, it is important to build relations, through loyalty, conversation and
hospitality. Creativity and material success is given high value; the
organizations are driven more by the people as compared to processes. The
organizations are managed from top to bottom and the culture is more
flexible in management. Offices are becoming more flat and the
organizations are evolving towards a more open environment where the
panel based system is in place (Tu, Lin & Chang, 2011).
4. In India, the business initiatives include: no added transaction costs;
providing market-driven knowledge partners to overseas investors so that
they can benefit from the local opportunities; catalyzing sustainable
partnerships between local Indian and overseas Indian businesses; and to
enable value addition to the investible knowledge, skills and expertise of the
overseas Indians (Sachs, 2001).
India established itself as an emerging market after trade liberalization and other
major economic reforms in 1991. The Indian economy has been growing steadily
at relatively high rates. It averaged 7.1% in the past decade, with some fluctuations
due to political instability and economic reforms.
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India's economic growth rate is close to that of China—6.7% to 6.9% (2017),
respectively.1011 Investors in India have also seen some upside (positive returns)
over the past several years.
The BSE Sensex index (a measure of continuously performing stocks) has come
close to doubling since 2016, indicating good growth and confidence by
investors.12
4. China
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The Chinese economy has posted an average growth rate of 10% since the
enactment of trade liberalization and economic reforms in 1978. China’s economic
growth has been propelled by government spending, expansion of its
manufacturing sector, and exports (specifically electronic equipment).
However, the country’s income per capita is still low. Although only 3.3% of the
Chinese population lives below the poverty line, 30% of the population lives below
US$5.50/day. Nonetheless, as the Chinese government focuses on increasing GDP
through consumption, disposable incomes are likely to increase, leading to
sustained economic growth.
The iShares China Large-Cap ETF is one exchange-traded fund that invests in
Chinese stocks.15 Investors can participate in China through mutual funds, ETFs,
and Chinese companies with listings on Nasdaq and the New York Stock
Exchange.
5. South Africa
South Africa is one of the most diverse and promising emerging markets globally.
The fiscal framework encourages domestic growth and competitiveness while
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raising the levels of employment. Taxes have been reduced and the fiscal deficit is
under control. The general legal practices are in line with the international norms
and human rights are given great significance. The trade and industry is governed
by a free enterprise economy (Lo & Hiscock, n.d.). The country has world-class
infrastructure with modern transport network and sophisticated telecommunication
facilities. Due to its economic alliance, the country has special relationships with
the European Union, and the Southern African Development Community.
South Africa was inducted into the BRICS association in 2010, after experiencing
negative GDP growth in 2009 following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (-3%).
Following the financial crisis, the South African government implemented a
number of policies to boost GDP through government expenditure and
consumption. Economic growth increased in 2010-12 before slowing down in
2012-16 and rising again in 2017.
Although South African GDP per capita has been increasing over time, so has the
unemployment rate (29% as of 2019). High levels of unemployment and crime
have hindered the economy’s growth and investment potential, and are issues that
need to be addressed through policy reforms.
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The Next 11 Economies
Jim O'Neill—the man responsible for coining the BRIC acronym to represent
emerging markets—also coined the Next 11 to represent the world economies with
the potential to become among the world's largest during this century.
The Next 11 list includes Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria,
Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam.17
These are frontier markets that are risky by nature. Since these countries are
developing, they are unstable and experience marketwide volatility.
Frontier Markets
Frontier markets are a risk-heavy investment and should be considered only if you
don't mind the amount of risk that comes with them. These countries usually are
commodity heavy, not transparent and are hard to find information on.
Many of these countries are also politically unstable, as powers within the
countries struggle to control commodities and resources. The returns could be
significant, but investing in a frontier economy should only be an option for those
with large, diverse portfolios that can handle the risk.
.
6- Research objectives
South Africa is a highly diversified economy where key sector include: mining,
agriculture, fisheries, vehicle manufacturing, transportation, tourism,
telecommunication, clothing and textiles, real estate, retail, energy, and wholesale
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trade. Unlike other emerging markets, South African has struggled to recover from
the recession greatly, and it has been due to the growth in the private and public
consumption that recovery has been made possible. Under the current policy
environment, the potential growth is estimated to be around 3.5 percent. It
generates more than 45 percent of the electricity of Africa, and its power supplier
provides 4th cheapest electricity in the globe. Further, it is also the largest producer
of platinum and chromium in the world while holding largest reserves for
vanadium, manganese, and alumino-silicates. Over the past decade, the investment
ratio has increased due to government and public corporations’ investment in the
infrastructure,
At the fourth BRICS Summit in New Delhi (2012), the leaders of Brazil, Russia,
India, China and South Africa considered the possibility of setting up a new
Development Bank to mobilize resources for infrastructure and sustainable
development projects in BRICS and other emerging economies, as well as in
developing countries. They directed Finance Ministers to examine the feasibility
and viability of this initiative, to set up a joint working group for further study, and
to report back by the next Summit in 2013.
Following the report from the Finance Ministers at the fifth BRICS summit in
Durban (2013), the leaders agreed on the feasibility of establishing the New
Development Bank and made the decision to do so. It was also agreed that the
initial contribution to the Bank should be substantial and sufficient for it to be
effective in financing infrastructure.
The New Development Bank Africa Regional Center shall be established in South
Africa concurrently with the headquarters.” (Fortaleza Declaration)
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8- Statement of economic and statistical indicators for the country or
emerging market (the source of each statement and each table is written
below)
In 1990, the share of BRICS in world GDP was only 10% while in 2010, it rose to
more than 25%; this means that during a period or two decades, the GDP share of
the BRICS nations expanded by 150% (Table 1). Moreover, their share in the
global trade rose from 3.6% to more than 15%. In this regard, China has been the
major contributor whose share increased from below 2% to above 9%. The share
of Brazil rose from 1.8% to 1.2%; India’s share rose from 0.5% to 1.8%; Russia’s
share rose from 1.5% to 2.3%. But the share of South Africa did not change during
this time period as there is consistency. In all the member countries, the prospects
of economic growth have been boosted in particularly by trade; evidence suggests
that the tool for promoting growth of the economies and facilitation of
development in the BRICS countries has been trade liberalization (Table 2). The
table clearly indicates that the BRICS countries have experienced a rise in GDP
and forex reserves; their share in the world trade has increased and the whole
group has benefitted from the trade openness (Jadhav, 2012).
The most significant change in the BRICS countries since the 1990s has been the
coupling of the growth-oriented strategies with the economic activities that has put
the countries on high growth trajectories. This means that the favorable conditions
and development of infrastructure has made the country more attractive destination
for the FDI (foreign direct investment) (Table 3). According to the data, the
inflows of FDI in these countries have increased by around 11% rate of compound
annual growth per annum over the last decade where it was $81 billion in 2000 and
reached to $221 billion in 2010. The outflows have also a similar trend as the FDI
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outflows have risen at a CAGR of 35% from the BRICS countries. This shows that
not only these countries are attractive destinations for the FDI, but they also have
been playing a critical role in meeting the demands of capital around the globe by
making foreign investments elsewhere.
Considering the rising importance of the BRICS countries, the trend in growth of
the labor force is also very critical. According to the International Labor
Organization, the data collected in 2012 states that more than two-fifths of the
world’s population is constituted of the BRICS and what is more important is that
it has an even higher percentage share in the labor force that is economically active
(Gammeltoft, 2008). Amongst the members, China has the highest share for both
population and the economically active labor. India falls second on population but
its economically active percentage is lower than that of Brazil and Russia.
19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20
75 12 75 12 75 12 75 12 75 12 75 12 75 12 75 12
Popul 56 63 21 31 11 12 35 50 91 13 62 12 10 19 39 74
ation, 6 4 2 8 6 50 2 37 8 9
total
(milli
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UK USA Japan South China India Brazil Turke
Korea y
19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20
75 12 75 12 75 12 75 12 75 12 75 12 75 12 75 12
on)
GDP 19 39 22 45 17 36 28 23 17 33 28 11 34 57 36 84
per 77 79 88 03 64 91 51 30 2 45 1 23 35 30 89 83
capita 2 6 6 8 7 2 3
(const
ant
2005
US$)
% 18 .. 59 .. 6.
pop. .6a .2 79
at $2 3
a day
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UK USA Japan South China India Brazil Turke
Korea y
19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20
75 12 75 12 75 12 75 12 75 12 75 12 75 12 75 12
(PPP)
Table 1 provides some key economic statistics for developed countries, recently
emerged countries, and emerging markets for purposes of comparison. Emerging
markets are large, growing swiftly, and exhibit variation in standards-of-living
across their population. Clearly, developed countries such as the USA, UK, and
Japan have much higher per-capita incomes than emerging markets in the lower
panel of the table. South Korea has had remarkable increases in income over the
period of 1975 to 2012, and we label it as an emerged economy. However, the
rates of growth during the 1975–2012 period has been much higher for emerging
and recently emerged economies, compared with developed countries. China has
had much stronger per-capita growth than India in the same period--starting with a
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per-capita income which was much lower in 1975, China has almost three times
India’s per-capita income in 2012. Even though average per-capita incomes in
emerging markets have risen considerably in the past few decades, a large portion
of the population still remain below the poverty line (defined by the World Bank as
those earning less than $2 a day). Countries like India and China (and to a lesser
extent Brazil) have a significant mass of the poor. Given their large populations,
these shares constitute large numbers of people and this segment will remain
important consumers of basic goods.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40547-015-0044-1#Sec12
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Government has stated they are now focusing it’s foreign policy on Africa
specifically and increasing trade with India and China. Being a member of the
BRICS could prove to be challenging for South Africa’s economic objectives as
the authors note the forum is more political in nature combining many countries
that would traditionally be viewed as economic adversaries.
Discussion and formation of an opinion whether South Africa would have
been better advised to develop and strengthen economic ties in Africa
South Africa clearly demonstrates a desire to improve economic ties in Africa as
it’s one of the countries core objectives. Entering into the BRICS may not have
been the best approach to achieve this goal especially considering China’s interest
in Africa regarding the continent (albeit with soft and financial power) and taking
what they please without regard for long-term African needs: sustainability and
good local governance. China has been characterized as having a conquering
mindset and such predatory actions on the scale of China’s afro-influence could
destabilize any fragile structural reform that exists, going so far as to say China is
playing the part of neo-colonist. It makes one questions whether South Africa
should focus more in building infrastructure and investing in Africa as opposed to
involving in the BRICS, as China’s political influence will be more prevalent and
apparent in South Africa as time progresses. Even so, Weisbrod and Whalley state
that Chinese investment has resulted in modest, but significant GDP growth in
African countries. Fundamentally opportunistic, China enjoys much economic
success in Africa despite the critics’ claims that Chinese influence is coercive and
decidedly unscrupulous (contrary to People Republic of China (PRC) party
rhetoric). The manner in which the PRC forms partnerships with the leader who is
in power regardless of their local governing tactics is considered a major
international foul. One study reports growing Chinese influence in Africa in all
modes – economics, security, and governmental ties – but states that their methods
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could endanger advancing democratic reform and harm U.S. Activity. Though
they did not until recently publicize just how much aid monies they dedicated to
Africa (Brautigam,1) .Under public pressure to play the international donor game,
the China White Paper was released revealing some figures, a sign some take as a
China moving in the direction of good nation behavior. There is a growing belief
in Africa that the Chinese model is more appropriate and effective at changing the
situation of both national economies and the lives of the population.
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relocated from the country in search of greener pastures. However, by the late
1980s the apartheid government had realized the error of their ways and in 1990
released Nelson Mandela a lead freedom fighter and political prisoner. South
Africa gained its independence from colonial rule in 1994 and elected Nelson
Mandela as president a move that was applauded by the international community.
Mandela, a champion of peace and reconciliation and his team of South African
leaders saved the country, which was at the brink of war, managed to reassure its
citizens, raised its standards of operation, and encouraged consumers and
businesses alike to once again trade with the country.
Read also Sample Negotiation Plan For An Emerging Market – Asia
When South Africa hosted the 2010 World Cup, it significantly improved its public
relations besides benefiting from the infrastructural upgrade that took place and
economically from the tourists that flocked in. In the last decade, political tensions
have been subdued and armed conflict is unlikely with politicians contesting
unfavorable conditions by leaning towards political protests as opposed to
paramilitary campaigns. As a nation that is navigating the difficult political terrain
rather well, South Africa is likely to prosper; investors would be encouraged to
maintain agility in order to safeguard their investments.
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(Human Immunodeficiency Virus) and community crime in the country is rated as
high. In 2005, the Human Development Index (HDI) showed some regress due to a
decline in the country’s life expectancy that was directly linked to the high
prevalence rates of HIV. Regarding human development, this is an area that South
Africa as an emerging market has to actively keep up with other emerging markets.
As the dollar has been getting stronger, the foreign exchange reserves have
continually weakened which has led to a fall of South Africa’s gross reserves by a
rate of -1.3% monthly, a situation that is likely to continue in volatility over the
next few months. From April 2015, the gross reserves have fallen from $47.043
billion to $46.446 billion(Overberg Asset Management, 2015).
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Gross Domestic Product and Liquidity of Local Debt
South Africa had a GDP of $ 475 billion as of the year 2011(Gauteng Provincial
Treasury, 2013). The size of South Africa’s GDP experienced very little growth
since before the 1980s and currently shows no real potential for becoming a
potentially large economy. This reality indicates that South Africa’s categorization
as an emerging market that joined BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South
Africa) may have more to do with politics than it would economic figures and
facts.
With a current account deficit of 5.1% of the GDP, South Africa had one of the
largest current account deficit among the emerging markets, as of quarter 4 of the
year 2014(Overberg Asset Management, 2015). This makes South Africa rather
vulnerable and this vulnerability is further increased by the magnitude of foreign
ownership of its financial assets, making a change in sentiment a potential risk
factor. More than 40% of South Africa’s domestic bonds are in the ownership of
foreign investors and out of all the emerging markets, South Africa’s bond market
has one of the highest levels of foreign ownership. Since South Africa imports all
its oil it was expected that the deficit would improve, but this large current account
deficit appears to be worse especially in light of the significant drop in oil prices in
the past year.
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increase in wages would be calculated based on the consumer price inflation (CPI)
and in the case where the CPI falls below the average projected, deductions of the
difference would be made in the next year. In 2014, the actual CPI was recorded at
5.6% but the public sector wages were calculated against the CPI projected at
6.2%, which caused tensions with the public sector unions. In 2015, the public
sector unions and the government agreed on a 7% wage increase but while making
the pronouncement, the government quoted a 6.4% increase lower that what was
agreed upon (Overberg Asset Management, 2015).These kinds of recurring
tensions and problems could potentially lead to the cancellation of the latest wage
agreement that was signed in May of 2015, as the worst-case scenario.
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®ulations and the legal framework conditions, where the U.S markets has more
advanced and refined versions while South Africa may still be in the
developmental processes. As the world’s largest economy the U.S stock market
pulls participation from all over the world while South Africa’s may mostly attract
national investors(High & Honikman, 1995).
In the recent past, Nigeria an emerging market has experienced the force of the
people who caused unrest in opposition to unpopular policies, for example the
increase in utility tariff, fuel subsidies removal, and problems with service
delivery. In South Africa, organized labor is considered quite strong and in the past
has been able to realize various successes in wage negotiations over the years.
Both of these countries just like several other African countries have a much
stronger force of change in politically relevant group which is formed the poor
majority than it has in the growing middle class. The low-income earners who
reside in urban areas and make up the majority of the population have a greater
ability to mobilize and influence changes(Udo, 2013).
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raised interest rates by the U.S Federal Reserve Bank, which may cause a
dwindling in the appetites of the foreign investors. Insufficient economic reforms
and power constraints may affect South Africa’s already weakened economic
potential. This is especially so because of the country’s low credit rating,
contingent government liabilities, government indebtedness, large current fiscal
and account deficits. South Africa depends largely on ‘hot money’, which refers to
portfolio capital inflows and seems to be losing out on the more long-term and
steady foreign direct investment, mainly because of its large current account
deficit. Despite all of this, South Africa’s credit rating stands at BBB, this is a level
above the speculative grade giving the country a stable outlook, as a downgrade is
not likely. The country is likely to maintain this positive status.
Since the robust yearly increase of 3.8% and monthly increase of 1.2%, there is an
expectation that manufacturing production will show a softening bias. This is
despite the shrinking of the manufacturing sector by -1.5% in April 2015 caused by
weak demand conditions from consumers and in the mining sector(Overberg Asset
Management, 2015). This demand conditions are however, temporary, since a
projected increase of 5% in mining output is expected.
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manufacturing capacity of South African rail since stringent requirements have
been in place to ensure the localization and supplier development targets are met.
More importantly, this arrangement is expected create more opportunities for local
jobs.
With diversification and a more flexible labor market, South Africa will grow
significantly. In order to improve their chances of thriving, companies will need to
develop risk management strategies that are tailored to specific local contexts and
business activities.
Africa markets are one of the best places to do business in. Here's why...
40
GDP, at over $1.5 trillion in 2020, is now roughly equal to the large economies of
Brazil or Russia. While Africa’s increased economic momentum is widely
recognised, less known are its sources and likely staying power.
Natural resources directly accounted for just 24 per cent of the continent’s GDP
growth from 2010 through 2020. Experts believe that the key to Africa’s growth
surge were improved political and macroeconomic stability and microeconomic
reforms.
Today the rate of return on foreign investment in Africa is higher than in any
other developing region. Early entry into
African economies provides opportunities to
create markets, establish brands, shape industry
structure, influence customer preferences, and
establish long-term relationships. Business can
help build the Africa of the future.
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cent over the next 10 years, reaching 128 million. By 2030, the continents’ top 18
cities could have a combined spending power of $1.3 trillion.
In recent times, there has been a scramble for the resources and markets of Africa.
China, India and Brazil, among others, are competing with African countries’
traditional trading partners, from Europe and America, to win access to the
continent’s commodities. China and India in particular are funding and building
economic and social infrastructure projects across the continent.
BRICs countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – are expected to play a
significant role in the future growth of Africa.
The global recession and its recovery have been nourishing these so-called South-
South ties and recent reports that:
• By 2025, BRIC-Africa trade will have increased threefold, to over $750 billion
from $155 billion in 2010.
• BRICs share of Africa’s total trade will increase from one-fifth today to one-third
in the next five years.
• BRICS foreign direct investment stock in Africa will swell to more than $150
billion from around $80 billion today.
Notably, a host of companies from the BRIC are now playing a larger role in the
international arena. In 2019 alone, 231 (or 11.5 per cent of the total) companies
listed in the Forbes Global 2000 originated in the BRICs – up from only 83
companies (four per cent) in 2015. Undoubtedly, the writing is on the wall –
BRIC-Africa partnership is going to shape the future of global economy in years to
come.
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Companies and businesses from BRIC operating in Africa are outpacing
American and European rivals through lower prices, faster action, and a
greater willingness to work in difficult environments.
The best possibilities are in the southern half of the continent, countries
like Mozambique, South Africa, Mauritius, and Namibia. Ghana has enormous
potential in its ports, fisheries, and tourism, as does Botswana.
9- The conclusions of the research in the light of the data you provided
10- A list of the references used in the research and their sources
Best wishes
43
References:
BRICS
BRICS+ (brics-plus.com)
Brics (slideshare.net)
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/emergingmarketeconomy.asp
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/emerging-markets/
South Africa
44
BRICS information portal (infobrics.org)
https://ccsi.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/content/docs/publications/EMGP-
South-Africa-visual-report.pdf
https://ccsi.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/content/docs/publications/EMGP-
South-Africa-Report-2016-FINAL.pdf
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/emerging-countries
https://www.thebalancemoney.com/top-emerging-market-economies-1979085
https://www.igi-global.com/dictionary/analyzing-government-research-emerging-
economies/9679#:~:text=Van%20Agtmoel%20of%20the%20International,percent
%20of%20the%20world%20economies.
file:///C:/Users/TOSHIBA/Downloads/EssayonEmergingMarkets.pdf
45
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/za/Documents/africa/
DeloitteZA_Is_South_Africa_the_next_Brazil_Sep2017.pdf
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2019/04/03/africas-emerging-economies-to-take-the-
lead-in-consumer-market-growth/
Executive summary
As its name suggests, South Africa is the southern most country on the continent.
A former colony of European powers, south Africa still struggles with income
equality between black and white citizens that until the late twentieth century was
institutionalized and strictly enforced.
In 2011, according to census data, white Africans earned six times more money
than their black countrymen. Rates of unemployment are higher and levels of
education are lower among black and mixed-race south Africans. South African’s
GDP accounts for almost a third of Africa’s nominal. Developed sectors include
manufacturing and agriculture. Though SA is famous for its diamond mines and
extracts 90 percent of the worlds supply of platinum, coal, is the most important
resources mined. SA generates 90 percent of its electricity from coal. The financial
sector accounts for more than 20 percent of GDP and is the third largest source of
employment.
https://repository.up.ac.za/bitstream/handle/2263/3654/
Klein_Emerging(2007).pdf?sequence=1
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