PROBABILITY

1 Yasir travels to work either by car, bus, train or bike.

The probabilities of using these means of transport on any work day are shown in the table.

Means of transport Car Bus Train Bike

Probability 0.12 0.40 0.26 p

(i) Find p. [1]

(ii) Find the probability that on Monday and Tuesday he travels to work by train on one day and
by bus on the other day.
[2]

(iii) Find the probability that he travels to work by bus at least once on Wednesday or Thursday.

[3]

2 A 5-sided spinner is numbered 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5.

The table shows the results from spinning the spinner 200 times.

Number Frequency
1 51
2 19
3 28
4 35
5 67

(a) A pie chart is drawn to show this information.

Calculate the angle of the sector representing the number 4. [2]

(b) Use the results to estimate the probability that the spinner lands on 3. [1]

(c) Use the results to estimate the probability that the spinner lands on a number that is a factor of 30.

[2]
(d) The spinner is spun 3000 times.

Estimate the number of times it lands on an even number. [2]

3 (a)

Bag 1 Bag 2
 George has two bags each containing black balls and white balls.

(i) George says: I am more likely to take a black ball from bag 2 than from bag 1.

Show that George is correct. [2]

(ii) George takes a ball at random from Bag 2, notes its colour and replaces it.
He repeats this 220 times.

How many times would he expect to take a white ball? [2]

(b) A bag contains 7 blue counters, 6 red counters and 3 green counters.
Yasmin takes two counters from the bag at random without replacement.

(i) Complete the tree diagram.

First counter Second counter

blue
6
15

..............
blue red

..............
7 green
16
blue
7
15
6 ..............
16
red red

..............
green
3
16 blue
7
15

..............
green red

..............
green [2]

(ii) Find the probability that at least one of the counters is red. [3]
 4 In a college, students can study French (F), Spanish (S) and Arabic (A).
A group of 25 students are asked which languages they study.
Some of the results are shown in the Venn diagram.


F S
5
1
4

2
A

(i) All students who study both Arabic and Spanish also study French.
7 students study French only.
8 students study Arabic.

Use this information to complete the Venn diagram. [2]

(ii) Two of the 25 students are selected at random.

Find the probability that they both study Spanish only. [2]

(iii) Three of the students are selected at random from those who study French.

Find the probability that only one of them also studies Arabic. [3]

5 A survey recorded the number of people living in each of 50 houses.

The bar chart shows the results.

(a) One of these houses is chosen at random.

14
12 Find the probability that exactly 3 people live there. [1]

10
8 (b) Two houses are chosen at random from these 50 houses.
Frequency
6 Find the probability that only one of the two houses has
4 exactly 5 people living there.
[3]
2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Number of people
6 A bag contains 12 balls.
There are x black balls in the bag and the other balls are white.

Two balls are taken at random from the bag without replacement.

(a) Complete the tree diagram.

First ball Second ball

x-1 black
11

black
x
12
white
.........

black
.........
12 - x
12
white

white
.........
[2]

(b) Find an expression for the probability of taking one ball of each colour.
Write your answer as a single fraction in terms of x. [3]

14
(c) The probability that both balls are black is .
33
Form an equation in x and solve it to find the number of black balls in the bag.
Show your working. [4]

7 (a)
2 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 8 9

Khalid has these 10 number cards.

He takes a card at random, notes the number and replaces it.
He then takes a second card.

(i) Find the probability that the first card Khalid takes shows an even number. [1]
 (ii) Complete the tree diagram.

First card Second card

even number
.............

even number

.............
.............
odd number

even number
.............
.............
odd number

.............
odd number [2]

(iii) Work out the probability that Khalid takes one odd number and one even number. [2]

(b) Basma has a bag containing 5 yellow counters, 3 pink counters and 4 black counters.
She takes two counters from the bag at random, without replacement.

Find the probability that she takes one yellow counter and one pink counter.
Give your answer as a fraction in its simplest form. [3]

8 (a) 1
2 2

1 1

6 2
1

Asma has this fair 8‑sided spinner.

(i) She spins the spinner once.

Find the probability that the score is

(a) 6, [1]

(b) not 2. [1]

(ii) Asma spins the spinner twice.

Find the probability that she scores two 2s. [2]

(b) Leon has 7 red counters, 6 green counters and 3 white counters.
He takes two counters at random, without replacement.

Find the probability that the two counters are the same colour. [3]
9 A bag contains 10 tiles.
There are 4 red tiles, x white tiles and the rest are blue.
Two tiles are taken at random, without replacement, from the bag.

(a) Complete the tree diagram.

First tile Second tile

Red
3
9
x
9
Red White

6-x
4 9 Blue
10

4 Red
9
x x-1
10 9
White White

6-x
9
Blue

6-x Red
10 ....................

....................
Blue White

5-x
9 Blue [2]

(b) Calculate the probability that both the tiles are red. [1]

x 2 - 6x + 21
(c) (i) Show that the probability that the tiles are both the same colour is . [4]
45
16
(ii) The probability the tiles are both the same colour is .
45
Show that x 2 - 6x + 5 = 0. [1]

(iii) Solve x 2 - 6x + 5 = 0. [2]

(iv) There are more red tiles than white tiles in the bag.

Find the probability that the first tile taken from the bag is blue. [2]
10 (a)
5 2 4 6 3
Two of these cards are chosen at random.
They are placed next to each other to give a two-digit number.

(i) Find the probability that the two-digit number is less than 30. [1]

(ii) List all the possible two-digit numbers that are prime. [2]

(iii) Find the probability that the two-digit number is a multiple of 4. [2]

(b) Rowan throws a dice 200 times.

The bar chart shows his results.

50

40

30

Frequency

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Number on dice

(i) Use the bar chart to complete the table of results.

Number on dice 1 2 3 4 5 6

Frequency 46 31 28 [1]

(ii) Using Rowan’s results, find the relative frequency that he threw a number less than 3.

(iii) Rowan says that the dice he has thrown is not a fair dice. [2]

Make two comments to explain why the dice may not be fair. [2]
11 A bag contains 36 balls.
There are n red balls in the bag.
The rest of the balls are green.
Esther takes two balls from the bag, at random, without replacement.

(a) Complete the tree diagram.

First ball Second ball

n-1 Red
35

n Red
36
36 - n
35 Green

Red
............
36 - n
36 Green

............ Green [2]

(b) Write an expression, in terms of n, for the probability that Esther’s first ball is red and her second
ball is green. [1]
1
(c) The probability that Esther’s first ball is red and her second ball is green is .
7
Show that n 2 - 36n + 180 = 0. [2]

(d) Solve the equation n 2 - 36n + 180 = 0.

Show your working. [2]

(e) There are more green balls than red balls in the bag.

Find the probability that Esther takes two green balls.

Give your answer as a fraction in its lowest terms. [3]

12 A group of 160 adults each completed the same task.

The table shows the number of errors made by each of these adults.

Number of errors 0 1 2 3 4 5
Frequency 24 30 50 32 16 8

(i) Calculate the mean. [2]

(ii) One of the adults is selected at random.

Find the probability that this adult made more than 3 errors. [1]

(iii) Two of the adults are selected at random.

Find the probability that they each made exactly one error. [2]
 MARK SCHEME

1(i) [0].22 oe 1

1(ii) [0].208 oe 2 M1 for 0.26 × 0.4 [× 2] oe

1(iii) [0].64 oe 3 M2 for 1 – 0.6×0.6 oe or

0.4×0.4 + 0.4×0.6×2 oe
or M1 for 0.6×0.6 oe seen
or 0.4×0.6[×2] oe seen
or 0.4×0.4 oe seen

2(a) 63 2 35 360
M1 for [360] oe or [35] oe
200 200
or B1 for answer 17.5[%]

2(b) 28 1
oe
200

3(a)(i) Correct justification with 2 4 5

probabilities 0.44… and 0.45… B1 for oe or oe seen
9 11
seen

3(a)(ii) 120 2 6
M1 for  220
11

3(b)(i) Correct tree diagram 2 M1 for 4 or more probabilities completed correctly

6 3 5 3 6 2
, , , , , oe
15 15 15 15 15 15

3(b)(ii) 5 3 10 9
oe nfww M2FT for 1 −  oe
8 16 15
7 9 3 9
or 1 −  −  oe
16 15 16 15
7 6 3 6 6
or  + oe
16 15 16 15 16

7 6 3 6
or M1FT for  or 
16 15 16 15
6 7 6 5 6 3
or  + oe
16 15 16 15 16 15
4(c)(i) Venn diagram completed correctly 2 B1 for 2 values correct

F 3 S
7 5
4 1 0
3
A 2

4(c)(ii) 1 2 5 4
oe M1 for  oe
30 25 24

4(c)(iii) 45 3
oe nfww
91 5 10 9
M2 for    k where k is 1, 2 or
15 14 13
3 oe

5 10 9
or M1 for   seen and spoilt or
15 14 13
a b c
  k  where x = n(theirF)
x x −1 x − 2
and
k is 1, 2 or 3

4
After 0 scored, SC1 for answer oe
9

5(a) 10 1
oe
50

5(b) 264 3 6 44
oe M2 for × [×2]
1225 50 49
a 50 − a
or M1 for × [×2] where
50 49
0 < a < 50

528
After 0 scored, SC1 for answer oe
2500
6(a) 12 − x x 11 − x 2 B1 for one correct
, , oe
11 11 11
correctly placed

6(b) x(12 − x) 3 x 12 − x 12 − x x
oe simplified single M2 for × their + × their
66 12 11 12 11
fraction final answer x 12 − x 12 − x x
or M1 for × their or × their
12 11 12 11

6(c) x x − 1 14 M1
× =
12 11 33

x2 – x – 56 = 0 oe A1
Alternative: x(x – 1) = 56 cao

(x – 8)(x + 7) [= 0] or M1 Dep on M1
2
−( −1) ± ( −1) − 4 ×1× −56 FT factorisation/use of formula for their 3-term
[x =] quadratic
2 ×1
Alternative: 8(8–1) = 56 soi

8 cao A1 8 8 − 1 14
After maximum 2 marks scored, B1 for × =
12 11 33
oe seen and answer 8

7(a)(i) 6 1
oe
10

7(a)(ii) Correct tree diagram 2 6 4

M1 for and placed correctly once
10 10

7(a)(iii) 12 2 4 6
oe M1 for × [×2]
25 10 10

7(b) 5 3 5 3
final answer M2 for × × 2 oe
22 12 11
5 3
or M1 for × oe
12 11
5
If 0 scored, SC1 for answer
24
8(a)(i)a 1 1
oe
8

8(a)(i)b 5 1
oe
8

8(a)(ii) 9 2 3 3
oe M1 for ×
64 8 8

8(b) 13 3 7 6 6 5 3 2
oe M2 for × + × + × oe
40 16 15 16 15 16 15
7 6 6 5 3 2
or M1 for × or × or ×
16 15 16 15 16 15

47
After 0 scored, SC1 for answer
128

9(a) 4 x 2 B1 for 1 correct

,
9 9

9(b) 12 1
oe
90

9(c)(i) 4 3 x x −1 6 − x 5 − x M2 x x −1 6− x 5− x
× + × + × M1 for × or ×
10 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 10 9

30 – 5x – 6x + x2 or better B1

12 + x 2 − x + 30 − 11x + x 2 A1
oe leading
90
x 2 − 6 x + 21
to
45

9(c)(ii) x 2 + 6 x + 21 16 1
= or better, leading to
45 45
x2 – 6x + 5 = 0 with no errors

9(c)(iii) 5 and 1 2 M1 for (x – 5)(x – 1) [= 0]

−−6 ( −6 )2 − 4 × 1 × 5
or [ x = ] oe
2 ×1

9(c)(iv) 5 2 B1 for white = 1 or blue = 5

oe
10
10(a)(i) 1 1
0.2 or oe
5

10(a)(ii) 23, 43, 53 2 B1 for three correct and one incorrect or

for two correct and none incorrect

10(a)(iii) 6 2 6
0.3 or oe B1 for where k is an integer > 6 or
20 k
for 24, 32, 36, 52, 56 and 64 identified

10(b)(i) 35, 22, 38 1

10(b)(ii) 77 2 46 + 31
or 0.385 B1 for where k is an integer
200 k
> 77
105
or SC1 for or 0.525
200

10(b)(iii) Large sample B1

46 1 B1
is a lot bigger than oe or
200 6
22 1
is a lot smaller than oe
200 6

11(a) n 35 − n 2 B1 for each

and oe correctly positioned
35 35
on tree diagram

11(b) n 36 − n 1
× oe
36 35

11(c) n 36 − n 1 M1 FT their (b) provided both probabilities in

× = terms of n
36 35 7

Correct rearrangement to A1 A0 if any errors or omissions in working

n2 – 36n + 180 = 0 AG

11(d) (n – 6)(n – 30) [= 0] B1 36 ± 362 − 4 × 180

Or
2

6, 30 B1

11(e) 29 3 B1 for use of n = 6

final answer 36 − their 6 35 − their 6
42 M1 for × oe
36 35
12(i) 1 2 M1 for
2.06[25] or 2.063 or 2 ([0 × 24] + 1 × 30 + 2 × 50 + 3 × 32 + 4
16
× 16 + 5 × 8) ÷ 160

12(ii) 24 1
oe
160

12(iii) 29 2 30 29
oe M1 for ×
848 160 159
9
After M0, SC1 for answer oe
256