Q4: After the success of the “RapViet” gameshow, a rapper believes that there is at least 70% of Television Video

Commercial
(TVC) with a rap song increasing the firm’s brand image. In a dataset from a survey of 130 managers, there are 89 respondents of
improving brand aware after running a rap TVC.
a. Conduct a test for his claim at the level of significant , 5%.
b. What is the p-value for the test if the test value (Z-test) = -1.2 ?
1 Hypotheses:

o Null Hypothesis (𝐻0 ): The proportion of TVCs with a rap song improving the firm’s brand image is less than or
equal to 70% (i.e., 𝑝 ≤ 0.70).
o Alternative Hypothesis (𝐻1 ): The proportion of TVCs with a rap song improving the firm’s brand image is
greater than 70% (i.e., 𝑝 > 0.70).
2 Test Statistic:

𝑝ˆ−𝑝
o We’ll use the Z-test for proportions. The test statistic is calculated as:𝑍 = where:
𝑝(1−𝑝)
√
𝑛

▪ 𝑝ˆ is the sample proportion (89 out of 130 managers).

▪ 𝑝 is the claimed proportion (70% or 0.70).
▪ 𝑛 is the sample size (130).
3 Critical Region:

o At a significance level of 5%, the critical region for a right-tailed test is 𝑍 > 𝑍𝛼 , where 𝑍𝛼 is the critical Z-value
corresponding to the significance level. Using a standard normal table or calculator, we find 𝑍0.05 ≈ 1.645.
4 Calculate the Test Statistic:

o Numerator: 0.685 − 0.70 = −0.015

0.70⋅0.30
o Denominator: √ ≈ 0.045
130

−0.015
o Therefore: 𝑍 ≈ ≈ −0.333
0.045

5 Decision:

o Since 𝑍 < 𝑍0.05 , we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

6 P-Value:

o To find the p-value for a Z-score of -1.2, we can use a standard normal table. The p-value corresponding to a Z-
score of -1.2 is approximately 0.11121.
o Therefore:
▪ The test does not provide sufficient evidence to support the rapper’s claim that more than 70% of TVCs
with a rap song improve the firm’s brand image.
▪ The p-value for the test with a Z-score of -1.2 is approximately 0.1112.

Q5: Guidelines for the Jolly Blue Giant Health Insurance Company say that the average hospitalization for a triple hernia
operation should not exceed 30 hours. A diligent auditor studied records of 16 randomly chosen triple hernia operations at
Hackmore Hospital and found a mean hospital stay of 40 hours with a standard deviation of 20 hours. "Aha!" she cried, "the
average stay exceeds the guideline." Conduct a right-tail test of her hypothesis with α = 0.01

1 Hypotheses:

o Null Hypothesis (𝐻0 ): The average hospital stay (𝜇) is less than or equal to 30 hours (i.e., 𝜇 ≤ 30).
o Alternative Hypothesis (𝐻1 ): The average hospital stay (𝜇) exceeds 30 hours (i.e., 𝜇 > 30).
2 Test Statistic:

𝑥‾−𝜇
o We’ll use the t-test for a single sample mean. The test statistic is calculated as:𝑡 = 𝑠 where:
√𝑛

▪ 𝑥‾ is the sample mean (40 hours).

 ▪ 𝜇 is the claimed population mean (30 hours).
▪ 𝑠 is the sample standard deviation (20 hours).
▪ 𝑛 is the sample size (16).
3 Critical Region:

o At a significance level of 0.01 (𝛼 = 0.01), the critical region for a right-tailed test is 𝑡 > 𝑡𝛼,df , where 𝑡𝛼,df is the
critical t-value with degrees of freedom (df) equal to 𝑛 − 1. Using a t-table or calculator, we find 𝑡0.01,15 ≈
2.602.
4 Calculate the Test Statistic:

40−30 10
o Numerator: 20 = =2
5
√16

5 Decision:

o Since 𝑡 > 𝑡0.01,15, we reject the null hypothesis.

6 Conclusion:

o There is sufficient evidence to conclude that the average hospital stay for triple hernia operations at Hackmore
Hospital exceeds the guideline of 30 hours.
Question 3 (20 points): Suppose that the Government of Vietnam will delivery COVID-19 vaccine for everyone in 2021. A
logistic company is hired to estimate the time its trucks take to drive from city A to city B. The population standard deviation is
known to be 12 minutes.
a. What sample size is required so that the error does not exceed ±2 minutes, with 95 percent confidence? b. Consider a sample of
25 observations with sample mean of time equals 2 hours, develop a 90% confidence interval for the true mean of time. ( Hints:
find a symmetric interval , in hours or minutes)
1 Sample Size Calculation for 95% Confidence Interval:

o To find the required sample size for a 95% confidence interval with a margin of error of ±2 minutes, we use the
𝜎
formula for the margin of error (𝜀):Margin of Error = 𝑧 ∗ ⋅ where:
√𝑛

▪ 𝑧 is the critical value corresponding to the desired confidence level (for 95% confidence, 𝑧 ∗ ≈ 1.96).
∗

▪ 𝜎 is the population standard deviation (given as 12 minutes).

▪ 𝑛 is the sample size.
12 1.96⋅12 2
o Solving for 𝑛:2 = 1.96 ⋅ Rearranging the equation:𝑛 = ( ) Calculating:𝑛 ≈ 601Therefore, a sample
√𝑛 2
size of at least 601 is required to achieve a 95% confidence interval with a margin of error not exceeding ±2
minutes.
2 90% Confidence Interval Calculation:

o For the sample of 25 observations with a sample mean of 2 hours (equivalent to 120 minutes), we can calculate
the 90% confidence interval for the true mean time. Since the sample size is relatively large (𝑛 > 30), we use
the z-distribution.
𝜎
o The margin of error (𝜀) for a 90% confidence interval is:Margin of Error = 𝑧 ∗ ⋅ where 𝑧 ∗ for a 90%
√𝑛
12
confidence level is approximately 1.645. Plugging in the values:Margin of Error = 1.645 ⋅ = 3.288
√25

o The confidence interval is symmetric around the sample mean:Confidence Interval = (Sample Mean −
Margin of Error,Sample Mean + Margin of Error)Substituting the values:Confidence Interval = (120 −
3.288,120 + 3.288) = (116.712,123.288)Therefore, the 90% confidence interval for the true mean time is
approximately (116.7 minutes, 123.3 minutes).
Question 2 (20 points):
Do interruptions while you are working reduce your productivity? According to a University of
California–Irvine study, businesspeople are interrupted at the rate of approximately 51 ⁄2 times
per hour (Fortune, March 20, 2006). Suppose the number of interruptions follows a Poisson
probability distribution.
a. Show the probability distribution for the time between interruptions.
b. What is the probability a businessperson will have no interruptions during a 15-minute
period?
c. What is the probability that the next interruption will occur within 10 minutes for a
particular businessperson?
1 Probability Distribution for Time Between Interruptions:

o Given that interruptions follow a Poisson process, the time between consecutive interruptions follows an
exponential distribution.
o The density function for the time between two consecutive events (interruptions) in a Poisson process is given
by:𝑓(𝑡) = 𝜆𝑒 −𝜆𝑡 where:
▪ 𝑓(𝑡) is the probability density function.
▪ 𝜆 represents the rate of interruptions (given as approximately 5.5 interruptions per hour).
2 Probability of No Interruptions in a 15-Minute Period:

o We want to find the probability that a businessperson will have no interruptions during a 15-minute period.
15
o The time interval is 15 minutes, which corresponds to 𝑡 = = 0.25 hours.
60

o Using the exponential distribution formula:𝑃(no interruptions in 15 minutes) = 𝑒 −𝜆𝑡 = 𝑒 −5.5⋅0.25

3 Probability of Next Interruption Within 10 Minutes:

o We want to find the probability that the next interruption will occur within 10 minutes.
10
o The time interval is 10 minutes, which corresponds to 𝑡 = = 0.1667 hours.
60

o Using the same exponential distribution formula:𝑃(next interruption within 10 minutes) = 1 − 𝑒 −𝜆𝑡 = 1 −
𝑒 −5.5⋅0.1667
Question 1 (20 points):
The manufacturer of a low-calorie dairy drink wishes to compare the taste appeal of a new
formula (formula B) with that of the standard formula (formula A). Each of four judges is given
three glasses in random order, two containing formula A and the other containing formula B.
Each judge is asked to state which glass he or she most enjoyed. Suppose that the two formulas
are equally attractive. Let X be the number of judges stating a preference for the new formula
(B).
a) Find the probability function for X ?
b) What is the probability that at least three of the four judges state a preference for the new
formula (B) ?
c) Find the expected value of X ?
d) Find the variance of X ?
a. Probability Function for 𝑋:

• We want to find the probability distribution for the number of judges stating a preference for the new formula (B).
• Since there are 4 judges, each with an equal chance of preferring formula B, we can use the binomial probability
formula:𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑘) = 𝐶(𝑛, 𝑘) ⋅ 𝑝𝑘 ⋅ (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑘 where:
o 𝑛 is the number of judges (4).
o 𝑘 is the number of judges choosing formula B.
1
o 𝑝 is the probability of choosing formula B (since there are 3 glasses and only 1 contains formula B, 𝑝 = ).
3

o 𝐶(𝑛, 𝑘) represents the number of combinations of 𝑛 items taken 𝑘 at a time.

b. Probability of at Least Three Judges Preferring Formula B:

• We want to find the probability that at least three of the four judges state a preference for the new formula (B).
• This includes cases where 3 or 4 judges prefer formula B.
• Calculate:𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 3) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 3) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 4)
c. Expected Value of 𝑋 (Mean):

• The expected value (mean) of 𝑋 is given by:𝐸(𝑋) = 𝑛 ⋅ 𝑝where 𝑛 is the number of judges (4) and 𝑝 is the probability of
choosing formula B.
d. Variance of 𝑋:

• The variance of 𝑋 is given by: Var(𝑋) = 𝑛 ⋅ 𝑝 ⋅ (1 − 𝑝)