Nykaa FIM Group 13
Nykaa FIM Group 13
MBA 2023-2025
Term III
GROUP 13
10th March,2024
IPO Analysis of Nykaa
Nykaa is an Indian e-commerce firm that offers cosmetics, wellness, and fashion items through
its portals, apps, and 76 physical locations in India. Falguni Nayar, a senior managing director at
Kotak Mahindra Capital Firm, started it in 2012 as a billion firm. It offers items made in India
and those made elsewhere in the world.
The firm transitioned from a web-based to an omnichannel business in 2015 and started selling
things other than beauty products. It introduced Nykaa Pro in 2020, and Nykaa Fashion began
operating in Delhi in December 2020, with the goal of making its fashion company
omnichannel. It also began selling over 2,000 labels and 200,000 items through its multiple
networks. Several women who desire to begin their own e-commerce firms can draw ideas from
this company.
Business Model
While Nykaa Fashion doesn't disclose a detailed business model publicly, based on Nykaa's
overall strategy, we can infer the following:
• Inventory-based model: Similar to Nykaa's beauty segment, Nykaa Fashion likely
follows an inventory-based model. This means they purchase clothing and accessories
directly from brands or distributors and store them in warehouses. They then sell these
products through their own online platform (https://www.nykaafashion.com/)
• Omnichannel approach: Nykaa has physical stores for beauty products. It's possible
Nykaa Fashion might integrate with these stores in the future, allowing customers to
browse or pick up fashion items.
• Focus on curation and discovery: Nykaa excels at curating beauty products and
offering a discovery platform for customers. Nykaa Fashion might use a similar
approach to select trendy and high-quality fashion items, making it easier for
customers to find what they're looking for.
• Brand partnerships: Nykaa has its own in-house beauty brands. Nykaa Fashion
might explore private label clothing lines or collaborate with established fashion
brands for exclusive collections.
• Technology and data-driven approach: Nykaa leverages technology for logistics,
personalized recommendations, and marketing. Nykaa Fashion is likely to use similar
strategies to offer a seamless shopping experience and target customers with relevant
fashion recommendations.
• Building on Nykaa's strengths: Nykaa has a strong brand reputation and loyal
customer base. Nykaa Fashion can leverage this existing customer trust to gain a
foothold in the competitive fashion e-commerce market.
• Evolving Model: Nykaa Fashion is a relatively new venture. The company might
adapt and refine its business model based on customer response, market trends, and
competitor strategies.
• By combining these elements, Nykaa Fashion can position itself as a trusted
destination for curated and trendy fashion in the Indian market.
Key Concerns:
Note: The information provided is from the Nykaa IPO prospectus and reflects the norms
applicable in October-November 2021. Since IPOs are one-time events, these specific entry
norms wouldn't be applicable for new investors today
Offer details :
IPO size: ₹5,324 crore
Fresh issue: ₹630 crore
Offer for sale: ₹4,694 crore
Price band: ₹1,085-₹1,125 per share
Lot size: 12 shares
Cost per lot: ₹13,500
Issue opens: 28 Oct 2021
Issue closes: 1 Nov 2021
Basis of allotment date: 8 Nov 2021
Initiation of refunds: 9 Nov 2021
Credit of shares to demat account: 10 Nov 2021
Expected listing date: 11 Nov 2021
The offer for sale comprises shares of founders/promoters Falguni Nayar and Sanjay Nayar.
They along with their respective family trusts own around 54.3%, which is about 25.3 crore
shares.
Reasons for going public and objective of the IPO
The company is launching the IPO to raise funds.Nykaa plans to use the proceeds from the
IPO for
• Investment in FSN Brands and Nykaa Fashion for funding the set-up of new retail
stores – INR 350 million
• Capital expenditure to be incurred by the company and investment in Nykaa E-Retail,
Nykaa Fashion and FSN Brands for funding the set-up of new warehouses – INR 350
million
• Repayment or prepayment, in full or in part, of certain borrowings availed by the
company and Nykaa E-Retail – INR 1300 million
• Expenditure to enhance the visibility and awareness of its brands – INR2000 milliom
• General corporate purposes-25% of net proceeds
Issue Size:
The INR53.5bn IPO consists of fresh issue of INR6.3bn and OFS of INR47.2bn (from
promoters and other investors) which would result in promoter’s stake reducing from 54.2%
pre-IPO to 52.6% post-IPO. The funds raised will be utilized for setting up new retail
stores/warehouses, debt repayment and marketing.
We like Nykaa given its leadership position in online Beauty and Personal Care (BPC)
market, customer centric approach, profitable tech platform and capital efficient business
model. The issue is valued at 16.1x FY22 EV/Sales on a post issue and annualized basis,
which seems to be similar to other Indian unicorns. We believe Nykaa is rightly placed to tap
the high growth digital/online penetration in BPC/Fashion market. We recommend Subscribe.
Investors with high risk appetite can Subscribe for Listing Gains given fancy for unique and
first of its kind listing in the e-commerce space.
Financial Information about the Company given under “The Offer”:
• Revenue: The company's revenue has grown steadily over the past three years, from
₹11,114 crore in FY2019 to ₹24,409 crore in FY2021. This represents a growth of
59% in FY2020 and 38.1% in FY2021. There is also data for the first quarter of
FY2022, which shows revenue of ₹8,170 crore, which is 183% higher than the same
quarter in the previous year.
• Growth (%): This column shows the year-over-year growth rate of the company's
revenue. As mentioned earlier, the growth rate has been positive for the past three
years.
• Adj PAT: This stands for Adjusted Profit After Tax. The company has a negative Adj
PAT in FY2019 and FY2020, but it turns positive in FY2021. There is also data for
the first quarter of FY2022, which shows an Adj PAT of ₹34 crore.
• Growth (%): This column shows the year-over-year growth rate of the company's
Adj PAT. It is important to note that the growth rate for FY2020 and FY2021 is
labeled LTP, which likely stands for "Long-Term Plan" and suggests that the Adj PAT
was not positive in the previous year for comparison.
• EPS (INR): This stands for Earnings Per Share. The company has a negative EPS in
FY2019 and FY2020, but it turns positive in FY2021. There is also data for the first
quarter of FY2022, which shows an EPS of ₹0.1.
• RoE (%)*: This stands for Return on Equity. The company has a negative RoE in
FY2020, but it turns positive in FY2021. There is also data for the first quarter of
FY2022, which shows an RoE of 1.5%.
• EV/Sales (x)*: This stands for Enterprise Value to Sales. The company's EV/Sales
ratio has declined steadily over the past three years.
Shareholders of Nykaa:
Following is the list of the top shareholders of the company.
Strengths:
• Constant engagement with customers by offering classes on makeup, health and
beauty
• Extensive range of products, explosive choice to customer- houses thousands of
brands
• Both physical and online presence
• Own warehousing. Ensures availability of products and timely delivery
• Owned brands that offer diversification to customers
• Brand support from actors, experts and vloggers
Opportunities:
• The rise of the e-commerce sector in India presents an excellent opportunity for
Nykaa to rise and shine.
• The evolution of Artificial Intelligence may help Nykaa to attract more customers.
manage their demands and fulfil all their requirements.
• The growing social media followers may lead to a growing customer base.
Threats:
• Competition in the form of e-commerce giants like Amazon and Flipkart
• Increasing competition in the beauty and skincare industry
• Cheaper and counterfeit goods available in the black market
• Amendments in consumer protection rules in India, which might have adverse effects
on operations and financials
Industry outlook:
Despite the pandemic, Nykaa’s total income rose 38% from FY20 to FY21
From a loss of ₹16.34 crore in the year 2020, Nykaa saw a profit of ₹61.94 crore in FY 2021
This was mainly due to the increase in revenue in operations from online shopping.
All in all, Nykaa is expected to benefit from the growing beauty, personal care and fashion
industry and the over-popularity of digital media.
Since its IPO in October, Nykaa has experienced a decline in market capitalization from ₹1
lakh crore to ₹53,540.46 crore. Analysts attribute this decline to prevailing market sentiment,
including the meltdown in tech stocks, with some also suggesting that the stock may have
been overvalued. According to Screener.in, Nykaa was trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 12
and a price-to-earnings ratio of 1,212 at the time of analysis.
Despite these market challenges, Nykaa's Q2 FY23 results indicate continued growth
momentum. The company reported a notable 39 percent year-on-year increase in quarterly
revenue from operations, amounting to ₹1,230.8 crore. Additionally, its net profit for the
September quarter witnessed a substantial 344 percent year-on-year growth, reaching ₹5.2
crore.
These positive quarterly results suggest that Nykaa is still on a growth trajectory despite the
market conditions. The significant increase in revenue and net profit underscores the
company's resilience and ability to navigate challenges effectively.
Founded in 2012 by Falguni Nayar, Nykaa began as a retailer of beauty products, operating
initially from her father's office. Over time, the company expanded its offerings to include
Nykaa Fashion, Nykaa Man, and other verticals, including offline retail channels. In
November 2021, Nykaa made waves with its ₹5,352-crore IPO through Nayar's FSN E-
Commerce Ventures Ltd, which was oversubscribed nearly 82.5 times. On the same day,
Nykaa's market capitalization soared to ₹1 lakh crore, propelling Nayar to rank 44 with a net
worth of $4.08 billion on the 2022 Forbes India Rich List.
Reflecting on the IPO, Adwaita Nayar, Falguni's daughter and CEO of Nykaa Fashion,
described it as a pivotal moment for the company, marking a significant step in its journey.
However, she emphasized that Nykaa views the IPO as just one milestone, believing that
there is still much more to achieve and that the company's trajectory is akin to being on Day
1, signifying the ongoing journey of growth and development.
In its Q2 FY23 financial reports, Nykaa announced positive improvements across key
metrics. The company's EBITDA rose to ₹61.1 crore, up from ₹28.8 crore in the previous
year's period. Additionally, gross margins increased to 45.3 percent compared to 42.7 percent
in Q2 FY22, while EBITDA margin improved to 5 percent from 3.3 percent in the same
period last year. These improvements demonstrate Nykaa's continued focus on enhancing
operational efficiency and profitability.
In the period leading up to the announcement of quarterly results, there was a significant
decline in the share prices of FSN E-Commerce Ventures, Nykaa's parent company, with
prices falling by over 20 percent within a fortnight. This decline resulted in Falguni Nayar
experiencing a loss of $1 billion in just 15 days. According to Karan Taurani, senior vice
president at Elara Capital, several factors contributed to this decline. Apart from the global
meltdown in tech stocks, Taurani attributes the drop to the expiration of the mandatory one-
year lock-in period for pre-IPO investors on November 10. Additionally, investor panic
selling may have been triggered by expectations surrounding the imminent announcement of
quarterly results. Moreover, heightened competition from players such as Ajio and Myntra,
which were entering the beauty and personal care (BPC) space, may have raised doubts
among investors regarding Nykaa's growth prospects.
However, despite these challenges, Nykaa showcased a stellar performance in the subsequent
quarter. This prompts the question of whether investors can regain their trust in the company.
Taurani expresses confidence in Nykaa's future, citing its phenomenal profit growth. He
believes that even after the lock-in period, there is unlikely to be a significant drop in share
prices, given the substantial promoter holding. Moreover, only 35 percent of the company's
shares are expected to go through a lock-in expiry, further mitigating potential downward
pressure on the stock.
In comparison to many tech stocks that listed around the same time, Nykaa has demonstrated
resilience. Abneesh Roy, head of the research committee at Nuvama Research, praises Nykaa
as one of the few profitable new-age companies. He highlights Nykaa's sustainable
competitive advantage, driven by pillars of Authenticity, Assortment, and Engagement
(AAE). Roy emphasizes Nykaa's transformation into a comprehensive lifestyle platform,
underscoring its unique positioning in the market.
Since its IPO, Nykaa has diversified its portfolio across various verticals, including Nykaa
Beauty (comprising ecommerce, physical retail stores, and private labels), Nykaa Fashion,
the eB2B platform SuperStore by Nykaa, and Nykaa Man. In a strategic move to expand its
reach, Nykaa formed an alliance with the Middle East-based Apparel Group in October to
venture into the Gulf countries, establishing multi-brand omnichannel beauty retail
operations.
The company has witnessed significant growth within its beauty and fashion segments, with
the number of in-house brands rising to 10 and 11, respectively. Nykaa's growth has been
further propelled by strategic acquisitions of brands such as Dot & Key, Earth Rhythm, Kica,
LBB, and Nudge Wellness. Given the fierce competition in the beauty and fashion sectors,
Nykaa has strategically diversified its investments to mitigate risks.
Anchit Nayar, CEO of Nykaa E-Retail, emphasizes the company's understanding of the
Indian consumer's preferences, enabling them to identify promising brands and scale them
effectively. Nykaa's private labels serve as a means to address market gaps and differentiate
itself from competitors like Ajio and Tata Cliq, who are also venturing into the beauty and
personal care segment. Nykaa's exclusivity deals with renowned international brands like The
Ordinary, Anomaly, Huda Beauty, and Charlotte Tilbury further bolster its market position.
In collaboration with Bollywood actor Katrina Kaif, Nykaa introduced Kay Beauty in 2019,
which has rapidly gained traction, achieving an annualized GMV run rate of over ₹100 crore
within three years. This transformation towards personal care has been instrumental in
increasing customer frequency and improving conversion rates. Despite a slight drop in
average order value by 5 percent to ₹1,864 in FY22, Nykaa has witnessed a substantial
increase in monthly average unique visitors from 13.5 million in FY21 to 20.8 million in
FY22 and number of orders increased from 17.1 million in FY21 to 27 million in FY22 for
beauty and personal care.
Current Scenario:
After experiencing a significant decline of almost 56% in 2022, FSN E-Commerce Ventures,
the parent company of Nykaa, has shown signs of a modest recovery, rising over 18% in the
year-to-date (YTD) of 2023. The turnaround commenced in May, breaking an almost 11-
month hiatus, and was followed by substantial monthly gains of 18.83% in June. However,
between May 2022 and April 2023, the stock saw positive returns in just one month, February
2023, recording a modest 2.3% increase.
Despite this improvement, the stock is still below its record high of ₹428.96, reached around
the time of its listing in November 2021. Over the past year, it has gained 5.2%, hitting its 52-
week high of ₹183.40 on December 18, 2023.
Regarding the outlook for 2024, Nykaa's stock has garnered mixed sentiment from different
brokerage houses. Nuvama expresses a bullish outlook, maintaining a target price of ₹187,
suggesting a potential upside of 9%. However, the brokerage notes concerns about rising
competition and increasing debt, which could affect longer-term visibility and hinder recent
re-rating compared to other platform peers.
JM Financial is also optimistic, offering a 'buy' rating with a target price of ₹210, indicating a
substantial upside of 23%. The brokerage is confident in Nykaa's Fashion segment's earlier-
than-expected profitability.
Conversely, ICICI Securities projects a target price of ₹185, implying an 8% upside. While
acknowledging the stock's de-rating over the past year due to concerns about the fashion
segment, ICICI Securities anticipates a re-rating in the near term, especially with the support
of a robust festive season in the December quarter.
However, JPMorgan and Macquarie adopt a bearish stance, maintaining 'underweight' and
'underperform' ratings, respectively. JPMorgan sets a target of ₹125, suggesting a potential
downside of 27%.
These varied assessments underscore the complexity of market perceptions surrounding
Nykaa, with some foreseeing positive trends and others expressing caution, particularly
regarding competitive pressures and debt levels. Investors should carefully consider these
perspectives alongside their own research before making investment decisions.
From a technical perspective, BP Equities reiterates a 'buy' recommendation on Nykaa with a
target of ₹210, indicating a potential upside of 22.5% and a stop loss at ₹166. The brokerage's
pattern analysis suggests a strong breakout and cues of buyers holding strength, supported by
improving relative performance compared to Nifty and favorable indicators such as RSI
levels.
Regarding earnings, Nykaa's parent company, FSN E-Commerce Ventures, reported its
slowest quarterly revenue growth since its stock market debut, attributed to intense
competition in its key Beauty and Personal Care (BPC) segment. Despite this, the company
managed to achieve a 50% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q2, reaching ₹7.8 crore,
indicating effective cost management or other strategic measures to enhance profitability
amidst challenging market conditions. Additionally, consolidated revenue from operations
grew 22% year-on-year to ₹1,507 crore in Q2 FY24.
Subscription Status: Oversubscribed by 81.78 times, with strong retail investor participation
(12.24 times).
• Cut-off Price: Not applicable, as there was a price band of ₹1,085 to ₹1,125 per
share.
• Allotment: Breakdown of shares allotted to different investor categories (QIB, NII,
RII, Employees).
Nykaa has proven its durability and adaptability in the highly competitive Indian e-commerce
market through its path from its founding in 2012 to its initial public offering (IPO) and
subsequent performance. Nykaa has become a market leader in the beauty, personal care, and
fashion categories in spite of obstacles including fierce competition, shifting regulations, and
cybersecurity worries. The company's success has been attributed to its omnichannel
presence, broad product variety, great brand recognition, and emphasis on customer
engagement.
With the proceeds from the IPO going toward debt repayment, marketing, and expansion,
Nykaa achieved a major milestone. Even though there was some market volatility after the
initial public offering (IPO), the stock's potential for long-term success is indicated by its
steady development in sales and profitability. Regarding Nykaa's prospects going forward,
analysts have voiced differing views. Some have emphasized the company's distinctive
positioning and growth chances, while others have cautioned about pressure from competitors
and high debt levels.
Overall, Nykaa is well-positioned for continued growth and success in the years to come
because to its ability to overcome obstacles and seize chances in India's burgeoning e-
commerce sector.