Update

Update Report
Hoa Phat Group (HPG) BUY +23.4%

Industry Steel 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F

Report Date May 16, 2024 Revenue (VND bn) 118,953 130,878 164,172 171,208
Current Price VND31,600 Revenue % YoY -16% 10% 25% 4%
Target Price VND39,000 NPAT-MI (VND bn) 6,835 15,113 19,797 21,629
Last Target Price VND35,200 NPAT-MI % YoY -19% 121% 31% 9%
Upside to TP +23.4% EPS % YoY -19% 121% 31% 9%
Dividend Yield 0.0% GPM 10.9% 16.9% 17.6% 17.5%
TSR +23.4% EBITDA margin 13.8% 19.0% 21.9% 21.9%
OPM 8.1% 14.0% 14.7% 14.7%
Market Cap USD7.8bn NPM 5.7% 11.5% 12.1% 12.6%
Foreign Room USD1.7bn FCF/Sales -3.0% -10.2% 10.7% 15.0%
30D ADTV USD24.7mn EV/EBITDA 13.8x 9.1x 6.3x 6.0x
State Ownership P/E 27.9x 12.6x 9.6x 8.8x
0.0%
P/B 1.8x 1.6x 1.3x 1.2x
Outstanding Shares 5.8bn
ROE 6.9% 13.7% 15.6% 14.9%
Fully Diluted O/S 5.8bn

HPG VNI
Q1 results support high growth outlook for 2024/25
P/E (ttm) 20.5x 15.7x
 We maintain our BUY rating for HPG and raise our target price (TP) by 11% to VND39,000/share.
P/B (cur.) 1.8x 1.7x
 We keep our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI broadly unchanged. Our higher TP is mainly
ROA 4.8% 1.9%
ROE 9.0% 12.1% because 1) we roll our TP forward to mid-2025 and 2) we apply a lower WACC in our DCF
valuation. We maintain our target P/E of 18.0x to capture HPG’s high growth phase in 2024-
2025.
Company overview  HPG’s Q1 2024 NPAT-MI of VND2.9tn (USD114.8mn, +622% YoY) was in-line with our
HPG is Vietnam’s largest private expectation. Strong growth was driven by 1) healthy growth of key steel products from 2023’s
steel producer. Its main products low base and 2) margin expansion due to an expanding input-output spread.
include construction steel
 We maintain our 2024F sales volume assumptions for HPG’s steel products, expecting
(capacity of 5.2 million
continued recovery in both domestic and export demand.
tonnes/year), HRC (capacity 2.8 of
million tonnes/year) and steel  Despite revising down 2024F average selling prices (ASPs) for key steel products, we also
pipes (capacity of 1.3 million expect lower prices of key input materials which translates to higher spread and margins.
tonnes/year).  However, we also increase our net financial expenses due to higher forecasted short-term
debt. The net impact is we keep our 2024/25F NPAT-MI broadly unchanged.
Share price performance  HPG looks attractive at 2024/25F P/Es of 12.4x/9.5x against strong projected EPS growth in
2024/25F. Our TP puts 1) 2024/25F P/Es at 15.5x/11.9x. The 2025F P/E at TP of 11.9x is consistent
45% with +1 standard deviation vs HPG’s average 10-year historical P/E (8.8x), and 2) 2024/25F P/Bs
of 1.9x/1.7x, which are consistent with the company’s average 10-year level of 1.9x.
30%
 The main potential drivers of upside (downside) variance to our forecasts are: 1) higher-
(lower)-than forecasted sales volumes; and 2) higher (lower) gross profit margins.
15%
We expect HPG to lead the recovery in steel product sales volume in 2024. While demand has
0% been warming up in Q1 2024 from a low base in 2023, recovery trend has not been clear for all
domestic steelmakers. In Q1 2024, HPG's construction steel sales grew 10% YoY, outperforming
-15% the industry's 2% decline, and boosting market share to a record 37%. HPG's hot rolled coil (HRC)
YTD 1Y 3Y ann.
sales also grew impressively by 67% YoY.
HPG VNI We continue to expect gross margin to improve in 2024 driven by sales volume growth and
a higher input-output spread. After a declining period in Q2-Q3 2023, ASPs of HPG’s key steel
products, including construction steel and HRC, increased moderately during Q4 2023 to early
2024. However, weak demand from China has caused the prices of most of steel products to go
sideways in 2024 YTD. As a result, we lower our ASP assumptions across HPG’s steel products,
but also expect lower prices of key input materials (iron ore and hard coking coal).

We attended HPG’s site visit at Dung Quat Steel Complex (DQSC) in March 2024. The trip
Vy Nguyen
reaffirmed our view that HPG is best placed among domestic steel producers to capture future
Senior Manager
vy.nguyen@vietcap.com.vn domestic steel demand growth due to the company’s established scale, operational efficiency,
+8428 3914 3588 ext.147 and the ramp-up of new capacity from DQSC (photos from our trip on pages 8-11).

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 Update Report

Q1 2024 Recap: Earnings surge YoY from low base

Figure 1: HPG’s Q1 2024 results

VND bn Q1 Q1 YoY 2024F Q1 as % Vietcap’s comments

2023 2024 of 2024F
Net revenue 26,589 30,852 16% 134,119 23%
Steel 24,573 28,637 17% 124,881 23% * Demand recovery was evident across HPG’s steel
product categories, which supported both volume
growth and selling prices.
* Construction steel sales volume grew 10% YoY.
* Products with high export exposure (i.e., HRC and
galvanized steel sheets) experienced a faster
recovery compared to domestic-driven products
(i.e., construction steel).
Real estate 427 699 64% 980 71%
Agriculture 1,588 1,517 -4% 8,259 18%
Gross profit 1,676 4,154 148% 22,451 19%
SG&A expenses -757 -958 26% -3,781 25%

EBIT 919 3,196 248% 18,670 17%

Financial income 903 752 -17% 2,273 33%
Financial expenses -1,331 -1,061 -20% -3,452 31%

Net other 40 374 830% 142 263% * Abnormal profit from asset liquidation.
income/loss
PBT 532 3,261 513% 17,633 18%
NPAT 383 2,869 649% 14,988 19%
NPAT-MI 397 2,871 622% 15,066 19%
Steel 357 2,413 576% 14,430 17%
Real estate 143 273 91% 312 87%
Agriculture -117 183 nm 324 56%
Gross margin 6.3% 13.5% 16.7% * In Q1 2024, HPG's GPM rose by 50bps QoQ to 13.5%,
continuing its upward trend for the fourth
consecutive quarter and marking a substantial
720bps improvement YoY.
* This performance is attributed to the increase in
selling prices of steel products amidst the declining
cost of iron ore and coking coal, YTD.
SG&A exp./Sales -2.8% -3.1% -2.8%
EBIT margin 3.5% 10.4% 13.9%
NPAT-MI margin 1.5% 9.3% 11.2%
Source: HPG’s financial statements, Vietcap forecast

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 Update Report

2024 Outlook: Strong earnings growth from cyclical low

Figure 2: Vietcap’s 2024 forecast for HPG

VND bn 2023 2024F 2024F 2024F 2024F Vietcap’s comments

old revised revised revised
vs 2023 vs old
Net revenue 118,953 134,119 130,878 10% -2% * We expect sales volume to recover YoY from a low
base across HPG’s steel segment.
Construction steel 55,681 64,318 61,672 11% -4% * We maintain 10% YoY growth in our sales volume
forecast, which translates to 4.2 million tonnes.
* We decrease our ASP assumption to 14.8mn/tonne
from VND15.4mn/tonne (USD616/tonne; +5% YoY)
previously as weak demand from China has resulted
in prices of steel-related commodities (both inputs
and outputs) to recover slower than our previous
expectation.
Other steel 56,186 60,563 58,833 5% -3% * HRC: We maintain our sales volume forecast of 2.8
products million tonnes (flat YoY) as HPG reaches full capacity
for HRC ahead of DQSC Phase 2.
* Steel pipes: We maintain 10% YoY growth in our
sales volume forecast, which translates to 753,000
tonnes.
* Galvanized steel sheets: We maintain 10% YoY
growth in our sales volume forecast, which translates
to 362,000 tonnes.
Real estate 933 980 1,772 90% 81% * Due to better-than-expected Q1 2024 result.
Agriculture 6,159 8,259 8,602 40% 4% * Due to better-than-expected Q1 2024 result.
Gross profit 12,938 22,451 22,146 71% -1%
SG&A expenses -3,269 -3,781 -3,773 15% 0%
EBIT 9,669 18,670 18,372 90% -2%
Financial income 3,227 2,273 3,233 0% 42%
Financial expenses -5,245 -3,452 -4,231 -19% 23% * Due to higher forecasted short-term debt.
Net other 142 142 442 211% 211% * Due to abnormal profit from asset liquidation in Q1
income/loss 2024.
PBT 7,793 17,633 17,816 129% 1%
NPAT 6,800 14,988 15,144 123% 1%
NPAT-MI 6,835 15,066 15,223 123% 1%
Steel 6,304 14,430 13,906 121% -4%
Real estate 317 312 680 115% 117% * Due to better-than-expected Q1 2024 result.
Agriculture 215 324 638 196% 97% * Due to better-than-expected Q1 2024 result.
Gross margin 10.9% 16.7% 16.9% * We expect gross margin to continue to improve in
2024 driven by sales volume growth and recovery in
ASPs.
* Despite lowering our steel ASP assumptions, we
also expect lower prices of key input materials (iron
ore and hard coking coal), which translates to a
higher spread.

SG&A exp./Sales 2.7% 2.8% 2.9%

EBIT margin 8.1% 13.9% 14.0%
NPAT-MI margin 5.7% 11.2% 11.6%
Source: HPG’s financial statements, Vietcap forecast

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 Update Report
Figure 3: Vietcap’s assumptions for HPG over the forecast period
Vietcap assumptions 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Current forecast
Construction steel sales volume 3.4 3.9 4.3 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9
(million tonnes)
% utilization rate 66% 76% 83% 74% 81% 87% 92% 94% 96%
HRC sales volume 0.6 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.8 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4
(million tonnes)
% utilization rate 43% 93% 94% 100% 55% 88% 87% 87% 87%
Construction steel ASP (VND mn/tonne) 11.2 15.8 16.4 14.7 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.8
Construction steel ASP (USD/tonne) 474 667 693 623 592 604 615 624 633
HRC ASP (USD/tonne) 541 847 664 591 569 581 591 600 609
Estimated average iron ore costs (USD/tonne) 70 100 110 114 102 104 105 107 108
Estimated average coal costs (USD/tonne) 120 180 350 330 290 294 299 303 308
HPG’s blended gross margin 21.0% 27.0% 12.0% 10.9% 16.9% 17.6% 17.5% 17.2% 16.6%
HPG’s blended cash margin 26.3% 30.9% 16.8% 16.6% 21.9% 24.7% 24.8% 24.7% 24.2%
(gross margin excluding depreciation)
HPG’s NPAT-MI (VND bn) 13,450 34,478 8,483 6,835 15,113 19,797 21,619 22,511 22,761
HPG’s NPAT-MI growth (YoY %) 79% 156% -75% -19% 121% 31% 9% 4% 1%
Previous forecast
Construction steel sales volume 3.4 3.9 4.3 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9
(million tonnes)
% utilization rate 66% 76% 83% 74% 81% 87% 92% 94% 96%
HRC sales volume (million tonnes) 0.6 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.8 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4
% utilization rate 43% 93% 94% 100% 55% 88% 87% 87% 87%
Construction steel ASP (VND mn/tonne) 11.2 15.8 16.4 14.7 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.4
Construction steel ASP (USD/tonne) 474 667 693 623 654 664 674 684 694
HRC ASP (USD/tonne) 541 847 664 591 621 630 639 646 652
Estimated average iron ore costs (USD/tonne) 70 100 110 114 119.7 121 123 125 127
Estimated average coal costs (USD/tonne) 120 180 350 330 290 294 299 303 308
HPG’s blended gross margin 21.0% 27.0% 12.0% 10.9% 16.7% 17.2% 16.9% 16.5% 15.7%
HPG’s blended cash margin 26.3% 30.9% 16.8% 16.6% 21.6% 24.3% 24.3% 24.1% 23.6%
(gross margin excluding depreciation)
HPG’s NPAT-MI (VND bn) 13,450 34,478 8,483 6,835 15,066 19,952 21,422 22,377 22,862
HPG’s NPAT-MI growth (YoY %) 79% 156% -75% -19% 120% 32% 7% 4% 2%
Change in forecast
Construction steel sales volume -1% 0% 1% 0% 0%
HRC sales volume 0% 0% -1% -1% 1%
Construction steel ASP -4% -4% -3% -3% -3%
HRC ASP -8% -8% -8% -7% -7%
Estimated average iron ore costs -14% -14% -14% -15% -15%
Estimated average coal costs 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
HPG’s blended gross margin (ppt) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9
HPG’s NPAT-MI 0% -1% 1% 1% 0%
Source: HPG, Vietcap assumptions. Note: We currently assume Dung Quat Steel Complex 2 (DQSC 2) to
come online in late 2024 and start to contribute to HPG’s business performance in 2025.

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 Update Report
Figure 4: HPG’s steel sales volume summary and Vietcap’s forecast for 2024

HPG’s sales volume Q1 Q1 YoY Apr Apr Apr 4M 4M YoY Vietcap’s 4M as

(thousand tonnes) 2023 2024 % 2024 2024 2024 2023 2024 % 2024F of
YoY % MoM % 2024F
Construction steel 868 956 10% 471 120% 24% 1,084 1,427 32% 4,200 34%
HRC 482 805 67% 252 5% -4% 721 1,057 47% 2,800 38%
Steel pipes 160 131 -18% 70 43% 67% 209 201 -4% 753 27%
Galvanized steel sheets 70 98 40% 48 46% 50% 102 146 42% 362 40%
Source: HPG, Vietcap assumptions

Figure 5: Construction steel and steel pipe market share of major producers

Construction steel Steel pipes

6% 7% 6% 5% 15% 16%
2% 5% 6% 6%
9% 6% 6% 4% 20% 18% 17% 13% 12%
9% 9% 4%
8% 7% 19% 15% 13%
8% 10%
10% 8% 13% 11% 11% 18%

22% 18% 17% 16% 14% 14%

17%
17%
20%
32% 30%
29% 28%
33% 35% 35%
37% 26% 26% 28% 27% 25%
23%
28% 20%
24% 24% 26%
19% 21% 22% 16%
15%

HPG VNSteel Vinakyoei Formosa HPG HSG

Source: Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), VCSC compilation. Note: (1) Data for Formosa is not available for
2013- 2016; Formosa’s construction steel sales are solely wire rod (i.e., no rebar sales); (2) VSA restated 2020
and 2021 data by adding sales from new members, thus the market shares of the top players in these two
years are restated in this report.

Figure 6: Growth of construction steel sales volume for total industry and key producers

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1 2024

Total industry VNSteel Others Vinakyoei HPG

Source: VSA, HPG, Vietcap estimates. Note: HPG’s 2018 steel sales volume growth was close to the total
industry’s growth due to HPG running at full capacity.

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 Update Report
Figure 7: Prices of HPG’s key input and output materials

25 1200
Note:
Dashed lines represent input materials
Continuous lines represent output products
1000
20

800
15

600

10
400

5
200

0 0

Sep-23
May-21

May-23
Jul-19

Nov-19

May-20

May-22

Mar-24
May-24
Sep-21

Jan-24
May-19

Mar-20

Jul-20
Sep-20

Sep-22
Sep-19

Nov-20

Mar-22
Mar-21

Jul-21

Nov-21
Jan-22

Jul-22

Nov-22

Mar-23
Jan-20

Jul-23

Nov-23
Jan-21

Jan-23
Iron ore Scrap
(USD/tonne - RHS) (USD/tonne - RHS)
Hard coking coal (USD/tonne - RHS) HRC (USD/tonne - RHS)

HPG's construction steel ASP China domestic steel rebar ASP

(VND mn/tonne - LHS) (VND mn/tonne - LHS)
Source: Bloomberg, VSA, Vietcap compilation

Figure 8: HPG’s average construction steel prices movement (VND/kg)

20,000

19,000

18,000

17,000

16,000

15,000

14,000

13,000

12,000

11,000

10,000
May-21

May-23
May-22
Sep-21

Sep-23

Jan-24
Sep-22

Mar-24
Nov-20

Mar-22
Mar-21

Jul-22

Nov-22

Mar-23
Jul-21

Nov-21

Jul-23

Nov-23
Jan-22
Jan-21

Jan-23

Source: VSA, Vietcap compilation

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 Update Report

Updates on Dung Quat Integrated Steel Complex (DQSC)

DQSC 1: Phase 1 has operated at full capacity since December 2019; Phase 2 started
commercial operations in November 2020.

The two blast furnaces of Phase 1 (construction steel with an annual designed capacity of two
million tonnes) increased HPG's total designed construction steel capacity to 4.2 million tonnes
p.a. HPG launched commercial products of Phase 2 (HRC with an annual designed capacity of
two million tonnes) in November 2020. We note that for each phase DQSC, the actual capacity
can expand up to 2.8 million tonnes — equivalent to a total capacity of 5.6 million tonnes per year
for the whole complex. In addition to the main steel production facilities, HPG has invested in
DQSC's deep-water seaport (consisting of 11 berths that can accommodate up to 200,000 DWT
vessels), electrical plant (able to supply up to 70% of DQCS's electricity demand), and waste
processing facilities.

DQSC 2: HPG started construction in May 2022.

DQSC 2 will have a total capacity of 5.6 million tonnes p.a., consisting of 4.6 million tonnes of flat
steel products and one million tonnes of high-quality construction steel & other steel products.
The total investment for this project is proposed at VND85tn (USD3.4bn) — with VND70tn
(USD2.8bn) for capex and VND15tn (USD604.8mn) for working capital. The new facility will span
a 284-ha area near the existing DQSC (430 ha).

By the end of Q2 2022, HPG had selected building contractors as well as main suppliers for
machinery & equipment; it started construction in May 2022.

As of March 15, DQSC2 has completed 48% of its phase 1 (the first out of the total two blast
furnaces of DQSC2), on track to be completed by end 2024 and put into operation in Q1 2025.
Phase 2 (the second blast furnace) is planned to be completed in 2025.

We currently model DQSC 2’s capex and projected future earnings contribution using a 10-year
multi-stage DCF approach, assuming that 1) VND70tn (USD2.8bn) of capex will be disbursed over
the three years from 2022 (i.e., VND16.6tn/USD707.7mn in 2022, VND21tn/USD889.8bn in 2023,
and the rest in 2024) and 2) HPG will use debt to finance 40% of the total capex (i.e.,
VND28tn/USD1.1bn). More details are noted in the valuation section. We currently assume DQSC
2 to come online in late 2024 and start to contribute to HPG’s business performance in 2025.

Figure 9: HPG’s steel capacity

Designed capacity Construction Steel HRC Specialized Galvanized Capex plan Status
per year steel pipes steel steel
(million tonnes) sheets
Existing capacity 2.2 1.3 0.4 Commercially
(excluding DQSC) (end-2021) running
DQSC 1 - Phase 1 2.2-2.8 VND50tn Commercially
(USD2.1bn) running since
December 2019
DQSC 1 - Phase 2 2.2-2.8 Commercially
running since
November 2020
DQSC 2 4.6 1.0 VND70tn Broke ground in
(USD3.0bn) May 2022
Source: HPG, Vietcap

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 Update Report
Comparison between DQSC2 vs DQSC1

DQSC2 has two blast furnaces compared to the four at DQSC1. While the total capacities of
DQSC1 and DQSC2 are similar, the capacity of each of DQSC2's blast furnaces is double than
those in DQSC1. Since the blast furnaces of DQSC2 is larger in size, DQSC2 will (1) have higher
materials conversation rate, (2) require lower energy consumption, (3) operate more stably
hence produce more consistent and higher quality finished products. All these points result in a
better input-output spread for DQSC2 compared to DQSC1 for the same level of input material
prices.

Unlike construction steel (rebar and wire rods) for which the main market is domestic, HRC is
sold both to onshore galvanized steel producers and for export. Currently, key export markets of
HPG's HRC are the EU, the US, Southeast Asia, and Mexico. With DQSC2 going into operation in
2025, HPG aims to further diversify HRC's export client base to the Middle East, Africa, and South
America. This diversification would reduce concentration risk, which would also reduce the risk
of anti-dumping taxes by importing countries for other restrictive trade measures.

DQSC2 site visit

We attended HPG’s site visit at the Dung Quat Steel Complex (DQSC) in Quang Ngai Province on
March 26, 2024. The trip reaffirmed our expectation that HPG is best placed among domestic
steel producers to capture future domestic steel demand growth due to the company’s
established scale and proven operational efficiency along with the ramp-up of new capacity from
DQSC. Below are photos from our trip.

Figure 10: HPG’s Dung Quat Steel Complex (DQSC) site visit photos

DQSC site’s overview

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 Update Report

Construction process of DQSC2

DQSC’s internal seaport

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 Update Report

DQSC1’s hot rolled coil production line

DQSC1’s hot rolled coil production line

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 Update Report

DQSC1’s rebar production line

DQSC1’s rebar production line

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 Update Report

Sector update
Our thoughts on HPG and Formosa’s proposal for Vietnam to have an anti-dumping (AD)
tariff on HRC imported from China and India

China, the world's largest steel producer, has long faced overcapacity issues in the steel sector.
This has been exacerbated in recent months as China’s domestic demand remained weak, driven
by a faltering property sector, prompting increased steel exports to other countries, including to
Vietnam. This surge in steel exports poses a threat to Vietnam's only two
onshore producers of HRC, HPG and Formosa Ha Tinh.

In response, on March 9, 2024, HPG and Formosa proposed to the Ministry of Industry and Trade
(MOIT) that an AD tariff be applied to HRC imports from China and India to protect local
manufacturers. The investigation process for such a tariff could take 12 to 18 months if initiated.
While HPG and Formosa would benefit from the tariff as primary HRC producers, domestic
galvanized steel manufacturers, including NKG and HSG, face potential cost increases, as they
rely heavily on imported HRC. Consequently, a coalition of nine local galvanized steel producers,
including NKG and HSG, have submitted a joint letter opposing the tariff proposal, primarily citing
the current shortage of HRC in Vietnam.

Local annual HRC demand in Vietnam is approximately 12-14mn tonnes p.a., significantly
surpassing onshore maximum capacity of 8-9mn tonnes p.a. from HPG and Formosa, raising
concerns that the tariff could grant these two firms undue duopolistic market power, to the
detriment of Vietnam's broader galvanized steel sector. In April 2024, three additional producers
joined the opposition, reinforcing the group's stance. For the time being, officials are requesting
that both parties submit additional information to complete their filings. Following this, the
authorities will review the submitted documents and ultimately determine whether to initiate an
official investigation into the matter.

In our assessment, the likelihood of the MOIT approving the AD proposal appears low, primarily
due to the ongoing HRC shortage in Vietnam. However, should dumping activities worsen
significantly, a temporary AD measure may be considered by officials as a preliminary step before
official measures are taken. We will continue to monitor the situation closely and update our
forecast assumptions as necessary.

Figure 11: Monthly YoY industry growth of galvanized steel sheet & steel pipe sales volume (March 2022 – March 2024)

90%
% of exports in
total sales volume
60%

Total sales volume

30% YoY

0% Exports sales
volume YoY

-30%
Domestic sales
Industry sales volume rebound in H2
volume YoY
2023 and Q1 2024.
-60%

-90%
Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24
Source: VSA, Vietcap

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 Update Report

Valuation
We continue to use a combination of DCF (70% weighting) and P/E (30% weighting)
methodologies to derive a target price of VND39,000/share for HPG.

 Our DCF-derived valuation is 20% higher compared to our last Update Report because:
1. We roll our target price forward to mid-2025; and
2. We apply a lower WACC of 12.0% from 13.2% previously as we a) use a beta of
1.2x from 1.4x previously, which is broadly consistent with HPG’s 1-year and 5-
year adjusted betas of 1.14 and 1.22, respectively. We believe our previous
benchmark of a 2-year adjusted beta, which currently is 1.47, is abnormally
high; and b) we assume a slightly higher debt-to-capital ratio based on our
end-2024 projection compared to the end-2023 ratio, as previously.

 Our P/E-derived valuation is flat compared to our last Update Report as we now apply
average 2024-25F EPS of VND2,897/share, broadly flat compared to VND2,906/share
previously and maintain our target P/E of 18.0x. We keep our aggregate 2024-2028F
NPAT-MI broadly unchanged.

Our higher DCF-derived valuation and flat P/E-derived valuation result in our target price
increasing by 11% to VND39,000/share from VND35,200/share as before. Our new target price
puts HPG’s 1) 2024/25F respective P/Es at 15.5x/11.9x, and 2) respective 2024/25F P/Bs at
1.9x/1.7x, which we think are justified given strong NPAT-MI growth in 2024F (+121% YoY) and
2025F (+31% YoY). Please see more details in the following Multiple Valuation section.

Figure 12: Valuation summary

(VND/share) Fair price Weight Contribution

DCF 33,400 70% 27,800
Targeted P/E of 18.0x 52,100 30% 52,300
Target price 39,000
2024F P/E at target price 15.5x
2025F P/E at target price 11.9x
Source: Vietcap

Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We continue to include DQSC 2’s capex and projected future earnings contribution as we
assume that 1) VND70tn (USD2.8bn) of capex will be disbursed over three years from 2022 to
2024 and 2) that HPG will use debt to finance 40% of its total capex (i.e., VND28tn/USD1.1bn). As
a result, we use a 10-year multistage DCF model to capture HPG’s long-term growth coming from
investments in DQSC 2. We apply an intermediate growth rate of 4% for the transitional period of
2029-2033 and then apply 2% in the terminal years.

Figure 13: Discounted cash flow

VND bn 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

EBIT 18,372 24,186 25,177 25,305 24,758
- Tax -2,756 -3,628 -3,777 -3,796 -3,714
+ Depreciation 6,533 11,800 12,400 13,000 13,600
- Capex -36,015 -6,000 -6,000 -6,000 -6,000
- Working cap increase 552 -8,804 -2,078 -1,502 -1,763
Free Cash Flow -13,313 17,553 25,722 27,007 26,881
Present value of FCF -12,577 14,800 19,357 18,139 16,113
Total PV of FCF -12,577 2,224 21,580 39,719 55,833

See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn May 16, 2024 | 13
 Update Report

Cost of Capital Old New DCF VND bn

Beta 1.4 1.2 PV of Free Cash Flow ** 120,620
Market Risk Premium % 8.0 8.0 PV of Terminal Val ** 119,330
Risk Free Rate % 6.0 6.0 PV of FCF and TV 239,949
Cost of Equity % 17.2 15.6 Plus: Cash + Short term deposit 34,033
Cost of Debt % 8.0 8.0 Less: Debt 79,487
Corporate Tax Rate % 20.0 20.0 Value of Equity 194,371
Debt-to-capital ratio % 38.9 40.4 Fully diluted shares (million) 5,815
WACC % 13.2 12.0 DCF value per share (VND) 33,427
Terminal Growth Rate* % 2.0 2.0
Source: Vietcap (* For terminal years after 2033 ** 10-year multistage DCF mode)

Figure 14: Sensitivity analysis of our target price for HPG (VND/share) in relation to DCF’s
WACC and terminal growth rate, ceteris paribus
WACC
10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 12.5% 13.0% 13.5%
Terminal growth rate %

12.0%
0.5% 41,800 40,000 38,400 37,000 35,700 34,400 33,300
1.0% 42,700 40,800 39,200 37,600 36,200 34,900 33,700
1.5% 43,700 41,700 39,900 38,300 36,800 35,500 34,200
2.0% 44,900 42,700 40,800 39,000 37,500 36,000 34,700
2.5% 46,200 43,800 41,700 39,900 38,200 36,700 35,300
3.0% 47,600 45,100 42,800 40,800 39,000 37,400 35,900
3.5% 49,300 46,500 44,000 41,800 39,900 38,100 36,600
Source: Vietcap

Figure 15: Sensitivity analysis of our target price for HPG (VND/share) in relation to DCF’s
WACC and intermediate growth rate of 10-year multistage DCF model, ceteris paribus
WACC
Intermediate growth rate %

10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 12.5% 13.0% 13.5%

2.5% 43,200 41,200 39,400 37,700 36,200 34,900 33,700
3.0% 43,800 41,700 39,800 38,200 36,600 35,300 34,000
3.5% 44,300 42,200 40,300 38,600 37,100 35,600 34,400
4.0% 44,900 42,700 40,800 39,000 37,500 36,000 34,700
4.5% 45,500 43,300 41,300 39,500 37,900 36,400 35,100
5.0% 46,100 43,800 41,800 40,000 38,300 36,800 35,500
5.5% 46,700 44,400 42,300 40,400 38,800 37,200 35,800
Source: Vietcap

Multiple valuation

In this Update Report, we maintain our target P/E for HPG of 18.0x. We choose an 18.0x target P/E
as this puts HPG’s 2024/25F respective P/Es at 15.5x/11.9x. The 2025F P/E at a TP of 11.9x is
consistent with +1 standard deviation vs HPG’s average 10-year historical P/E (8.8x) of the
company. We believe HPG deserves a higher multiple valuation during its high-growth phase in
2024 and 2025. At our target price, HPG’s respective 2024/25F P/Bs would be 1.9x/1.7x, which are
consistent with the company’s average 10-year level of 1.9x.

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 Update Report
Figure 16: Multiple valuation of HPG based on our 2024/25F forecasts

Earnings per Book value per

P/E (x) P/B (x)
share (EPS) share (BVPS)
Year
at current at target at current at target
(VND/share) (VND/share)
price price price price
2021 5,636 5.6 6.9 15,585 2.0 2.5
2022 1,408 22.4 27.7 16,511 1.9 2.4
2023 1,134 27.9 34.4 17,674 1.8 2.2
2024F 2,508 12.6 15.5 20,169 1.5 1.9
2025F 3,285 9.6 11.9 23,436 1.3 1.7

Current price: VND31,600/share. Target price: VND39,000/share.

Source: Vietcap

Figure 17: Historical Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E) of HPG

30.0x

25.0x

20.0x

15.0x
+2ST Dev = 13.4x
+1ST Dev = 11.1x
10.0x
Avg 10YR = 8.8x
-1ST Dev = 6.5x
5.0x

0.0x
Jul-15
Feb-16

Nov-17
Jun-18

May-21
Apr-17

Jan-19
May-14

Sep-23
Mar-20

Dec-21
Sep-16

Aug-19

Oct-20

Jul-22
Feb-23

Apr-24
Dec-14

Source: Fiinpro, Vietcap

Figure 18: Historical Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B) of HPG

4.0x

3.5x

3.0x +2ST Dev = 3.0x

2.5x +1ST Dev = 2.4x

2.0x
Avg 10YR = 1.9x

1.5x
-1ST Dev = 1.3x
1.0x

0.5x 7
0.0x
Nov-17

May-21
Jul-15

Jun-18
Feb-16

Apr-17

Jan-19

Sep-23
May-14

Mar-20

Dec-21
Sep-16

Aug-19

Oct-20

Jul-22

Apr-24
Feb-23
Dec-14

Source: Fiinpro, Vietcap

See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn May 16, 2024 | 15
 Update Report

Recommendation History

Figure 19: Historical Vietcap target price vs share price (VND/share)

55,000
O-PF BUY
BUY
50,000 48,500 48,500
47,000
O-PF
45,000 45,000 BUY BUY
40,000 39,200 39,000
BUY
O-PF
35,200
35,000 37,900
OUTPERFORM
O-PF 23,500
30,000
26,800
25,000 BUY M-PF
21,000 21,000
BUY BUY UNDER
20,000
15,900 20,500 PERFORM
UNDER
15,000 BUY 23,500
PERFORM
16,500 19,500
10,000

5,000
Aug-20

Aug-22
Aug-21

Aug-23
Dec-21

Dec-23
Jun-20

Oct-20
Dec-20

Apr-21

Jun-22

Oct-22
Dec-22

Apr-23

Feb-24
Feb-20

Jun-21

Oct-21
Apr-20

Feb-22

Oct-23

Apr-24
Feb-21

Apr-22

Feb-23

Jun-23
Actual price Target price

Source: Bloomberg, Vietcap (historical target prices adjusted for changes in shares outstanding)

See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn May 16, 2024 | 16
 Update Report

Financial Statements
P&L (VND bn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F B/S (VND bn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
Revenue 118,953 130,878 164,172 171,208 Cash & Equivalents 12,267 24,033 14,374 25,811
COGS -106,015 -108,733 -135,355 -141,198 ST Investment 22,162 10,000 10,000 10,000
Gross Profit 12,938 22,146 28,817 30,010 Accounts Receivables 6,000 6,362 8,071 8,511
Sales & Marketing exp. -1,961 -2,465 -2,989 -3,121 Inventories 34,504 36,872 45,974 48,035
General & Admin exp. -1,307 -1,309 -1,642 -1,712 Other Current assets 7,783 6,544 8,209 8,560
Operating Profit 9,669 18,372 24,186 25,177 Total Current Assets 82,716 83,811 86,627 100,918
Financial Income 3,227 3,104 2,861 3,338 Fixed Assets, Gross 134,239 170,253 176,253 182,253
Financial Expenses -5,245 -4,231 -4,019 -3,303 - Depreciation -35,548 -42,080 -53,880 -66,280
- o/w Interest Expense -3,585 -3,923 -3,660 -2,928 Fixed Assets, Net 98,691 128,173 122,373 115,974
Associates 0 0 0 0 LT investments 40 40 40 40
Net Other Income/(Loss) 142 442 142 142 LT assets, other 6,335 6,335 6,335 6,335
Profit Before Tax 7,793 17,688 23,169 25,313 Total LT Assets 105,066 134,548 128,748 122,349
Income Tax -992 -2,653 -3,475 -3,797 Total Assets 187,783 218,358 215,375 223,266
NPAT Before MI 6,800 15,035 19,694 21,516
Minority Interest 35 79 103 113 Accounts Payable 12,387 14,431 18,102 18,877
NPAT Less MI, Reported 6,835 15,113 19,797 21,629 ST Debt 54,982 54,366 33,839 28,240
NPAT less MI, Adjusted 6,835 15,113 19,797 21,629 Other ST Liabilities 4,144 4,144 4,144 4,144
Total Current Liabilities 71,513 72,941 56,085 51,261
EBITDA 16,443 24,905 35,985 37,577 LT Debt 10,399 25,120 20,095 15,071
EPS Reported, VND 1,134 2,508 3,285 3,588 Other LT liabilities 3,034 3,034 3,034 3,034
EPS Adjusted, VND 1,134 2,508 3,285 3,588 Total Liabilities 84,946 101,095 79,213 69,366
EPS fully diluted, VND 1,134 2,508 3,285 3,588
DPS Reported, VND 0 0 500 1,500 Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0
DPS/EPS (%) 0% 0% 15% 42% Paid in capital 58,148 58,148 58,148 58,148
Share premium 3,212 3,212 3,212 3,212
RATIOS 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F Retained earnings 40,593 55,099 74,100 91,951
Growth YoY Other equity 818 818 818 818
Revenue -15.9% 10.0% 25.4% 4.3% Minority interest 66 -13 -116 -229
Op. Profit (EBIT) -26.1% 90.0% 31.6% 4.1% Total equity 102,836 117,263 136,161 153,900
PBT -21.5% 127.0% 31.0% 9.3% Liabilities & equity 187,783 218,358 215,375 223,266
Reported EPS -19.4% 121.1% 31.0% 9.3%
Y/E shares out, mn 5,815 5,815 5,815 5,815
Profitability
Gross Profit Margin 10.9% 16.9% 17.6% 17.5% CASH FLOW (VND bn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
Op. Profit, (EBIT) Margin 8.1% 14.0% 14.7% 14.7% Beginning Cash Balance 8,325 12,267 24,033 14,374
EBITDA Margin 13.8% 19.0% 21.9% 21.9% Net Income 6,800 15,035 19,694 21,516
NPAT-MI Margin 5.7% 11.5% 12.1% 12.6% Dep, & Amortization 6,773 6,533 11,800 12,400
ROE 6.9% 13.7% 15.6% 14.9% ∆ in Working Capital -1,470 552 -8,804 -2,078
ROA 3.8% 7.4% 9.1% 9.8% Other Adjustments -2,632 -529 -693 -757
Cash from Operations 9,472 21,591 21,996 31,081
Efficiency
Days Inventory On Hand 118.8 119.8 111.7 121.5 Capital Expenditures, Net -17,353 -36,015 -6,000 -6,000
Days Accts, Receivable 13.7 17.2 16.0 17.7 Investments, Net 4,344 12,162 0 0
Days Accts, Payable 40.4 45.0 43.9 47.8 Cash from Investments -12,801 -23,853 -6,000 -6,000
Cash Conversion Days 92.1 92.0 83.9 91.4
Dividends Paid -8 0 0 -2,907
Liquidity ∆ in Share Capital -2 0 0 0
Current Ratio 1.2 1.1 1.5 2.0 ∆ in ST Debt 8,233 -616 -20,527 -5,599
Quick Ratio 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 ∆ in LT Debt -753 14,721 -5,025 -5,025
Cash Ratio 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 Other financing C/F -198 -79 -103 -113
Debt / Assets % 34.8% 36.4% 25.0% 19.8% Cash from Financing 7,272 14,027 -25,656 -12,643
Debt / Capital % 38.9% 40.4% 28.4% 22.4%
Net Debt / Equity 30.1% 38.8% 21.7% 4.9% Net Change in Cash 3,943 11,765 -9,659 11,438
Interest Coverage 3.7 5.7 7.6 9.4 Ending Cash Balance 12,267 24,033 14,374 25,811
Source: HPG, Vietcap forecast

See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn May 16, 2024 | 17
 Update Report

Vietcap Rating System

Stock ratings are set based on projected total shareholder return (TSR), defined as (target price – current
price)/current price + dividend yield, and are not related to market performance.

Equity rating key Definition

BUY If the projected TSR is 20% or higher

OUTPERFORM If the projected TSR is between 10% and 20%

MARKET PERFORM If the projected TSR is between -10% and 10%

UNDERPERFORM If the projected TSR is between -10% and -20%

SELL If the projected TSR is -20% or lower

NOT RATED The company is or may be covered by the Research Department but no
rating or target price is assigned either voluntarily or to comply with
applicable regulation and/or firm policies in certain circumstances,
including when Vietcap is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or
strategic transaction involving the company.

RATING SUSPENDED, A rating may be suspended, or coverage terminated, if fundamental

COVERAGE TERMINATED information is deemed insufficient to determine a target price or
investment rating or due to a reallocation of research resources. Any
previous investment rating and target price are no longer in effect.

Unless otherwise specified, these performance parameters are set with a 12-month horizon. Movement in
share prices may cause a temporary mismatch between the latest published rating and projected TSR for a
stock based on its market price and the latest published target price.

Target prices are generally based on the analyst's assessment of the stock’s fair value over a 12-month
horizon. However, the target price may differ from the analyst’s fair value if the analyst believes that the
market will not price the stock in line with assessed fair value over the specified time horizon.

Risks: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange
may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related instrument mentioned in this report.
For investment advice, trade execution, or other enquiries, clients should contact their local sales
representative.

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 Update Report

Disclaimer
Analyst Certification of Independence
I, Vy Nguyen, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers.
I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed
in this report. The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors,
including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues, which include revenues from,
among other business units, Institutional Equities and Investment Banking.

Vietcap and its officers, directors and employees may have positions in any securities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment)
and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such securities (or investment). Vietcap may have, within the last three years, served as
manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities
mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation
to the investment concerned or a related investment.

Copyright 2024 Vietcap Securities Company “Vietcap”. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared on the basis of information believed to
be reliable at the time of publication. Vietcap makes no representation or warranty regarding the completeness and accuracy of such information.
Opinions, estimates and projection expressed in this report represent the current views of the author at the date of publication only. They do not
necessarily reflect the opinions of Vietcap and are subject to change without notice. This report is provided, for information purposes only, to
institutional investors and retail clients of Vietcap in Vietnam and overseas in accordance to relevant laws and regulations explicit to the country
where this report is distributed, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction.
Investors must make their investment decisions based upon independent advice subject to their particular financial situation and investment
objectives. This report may not be copied, reproduced, published or redistributed by any person for any purpose without the written permission
of an authorized representative of Vietcap. Please cite sources when quoting.

U.K. and European Economic Area (EEA): Unless specified to the contrary, issued and approved for distribution in the U.K. and the EEA by
Vietcap issued by Vietcap has been prepared in accordance with Vietcap’s policies for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of
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2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (all such persons being referred to as "relevant persons"). This document must not be acted on or relied
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persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. In other EEA countries, the report has been issued to persons regarded as professional
investors (or equivalent) in their home jurisdiction. Australia: This material is issued and distributed by Vietcap in Australia to "wholesale clients"
only. Vietcap does not issue or distribute this material to "retail clients". The recipient of this material must not distribute it to any third party or
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the Securities and Futures Commission. (For research published within the first ten days of the month, the disclosure may be based on the month
end data from two months prior.) Japan: There is a risk that a loss may occur due to a change in the price of the shares in the case of share
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(as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Decker&Co, LLC, a broker-dealer registered in the US
(registered under Section 15 of Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Decker&Co,
LLC in the US shall be borne by Decker&Co, LLC. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-
dealer in the US. This report is not directed at you if Vietcap Broker or Decker&Co, LLC is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation
in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Decker&Co, LLC and Vietcap is permitted to
provide research material concerning investment to you under relevant legislation and regulations.

See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn May 16, 2024 | 19
 Update Report

Contacts
Corporate
www.vietcap.com.vn
Head Office Hanoi Branch
Bitexco Financial Tower, 15th Floor 109 Tran Hung Dao
2 Hai Trieu Street, District 1, HCMC Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi
+84 28 3914 3588 +84 24 6262 6999

Nguyen Hue Transaction Office Ham Nghi Transaction Office

Vinatex Building, 1st & 3rd Floor Doji Tower, 16th Floor
10 Nguyen Hue Street, District 1, HCMC 81-83-83B-85 Ham Nghi Street, District 1, HCMC
+84 28 3914 3588 (417) +84 28 3914 3588 (400)

Dong Da Transaction Office

9 Lane 82 Pham Ngoc Thach
Dong Da District, Hanoi
+84 24 6262 6999

Research
Research Team: +84 28 3914 3588 Alastair Macdonald, Head of Research, ext 105
research@vietcap.com.vn alastair.macdonald@vietcap.com.vn

Banks, Securities and Insurance Macro

Duy Nguyen, Senior Manager, ext 123 Luong Hoang, Senior Manager, ext 368
- Ngoc Huynh, Senior Analyst, ext 138 - Quang Dao, Analyst, ext 368
- Nga Ho, Analyst, ext 516
- Hoai Trinh, Analyst, ext 116

Consumer Oil & Gas, Power and Water

Nam Hoang, Associate Director, ext 124 Duong Dinh, Associate Director, ext 140
- Ha Huynh, Senior Analyst, ext 185 - Phuoc Duong, Analyst, ext 135
- Han Mai, Analyst, ext 538 - Thu Vo, Analyst, ext 529
- Ngan Ly, Analyst, ext 532 - Tuan Do, Analyst, ext 181

Real Estate Industrials and Infrastructure

Hong Luu, Senior Manager, ext 120 Vy Nguyen, Senior Manager, ext 147
- Anh Pham, Analyst, ext 149 - Vinh Bui, Senior Analyst, ext 191
- Thuc Than, Analyst, ext 174 - Han Nguyen, Analyst
- Huy Hoang, Analyst
Retail Client Research
Duc Vu, Associate Director, ext 363
- Trung Nguyen, Senior Analyst, ext 129
- Anh Tong, Senior Analyst, ext 366
- Ngoc Vu, Analyst, ext 365

Brokerage and Institutional Sales & Trading

Tuan Nhan Quynh Chau Dung Nguyen
Managing Director, Brokerage Managing Director Director
& Institutional Sales & Trading Brokerage Institutional Sales & Trading
+84 28 3914 3588, ext 107 +84 28 3914 3588, ext 222 +84 28 3914 3588, ext 136
tuan.nhan@vietcap.com.vn quynh.chau@vietcap.com.vn dung.nguyen@vietcap.com.vn

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