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UNIVERSITY OF PRETORIA
FACULTY OF NATURAL AND AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS

MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS 111

EXAMINATION: 15 JUNE 2012
AVAILABLE TIME: 3 HOURS FULL MARKS: 100
TOTAL MARKS: 102

External Examiner: Dr R Ehlers

Internal Examiners: Dr HF Strydom
Dr G Crafford
Mrs J van Niekerk

SURNAME AND INITIALS

STUDENT NUMBER

SIGNATURE

QUESTION TOTAL MARKS QUESTION TOTAL MARKS

AWARDED AWARDED
1 11 6 7
2 12 7 6
3 11 8 10
4 9 9 10
5 14 10 12
57 45
• Answer all questions in the spaces provided.
• Write down the formulae you use.
• Marks will be awarded for notation. Show all steps.
• Give answers correctly up to 3 decimal places where necessary.
• Cell phones may not be used and must be switched off.

1
QUESTION 1

(a) A company utilizes two different machines to manufacture parts of a certain type.
During a single shift, a sample of 𝑛 = 20 parts produced by each machine is
obtained, and the value of a particular critical dimension for each part is determined.
The boxplots for results obtained for each machine are given below.

Compare and contrast the two samples in terms of the given measures of location
and spread.

(4)
(b) In the table below the number of vehicle accidents observed in a certain area are
given for two time periods. According to this table, is the following statement TRUE or
FALSE? “Relatively speaking, only minibuses showed a decrease in accidents
from 2003 to 2006”.

YEAR
TYPE OF VEHICLE 2003 2006
Motor cars 40 100
Mini-buses 40 50
Trucks 20 50
TOTAL 100 200

Indicate TRUE/FALSE and explain your answer.

(2)

3
(c) The number of new vehicles sold by a dealer during a 108 day period is summarized
below:

Number of
new vehicles Number of
sold days
0 60
1 27
2 10
3 6
4 2
5 2
6 1
Total 108

(i) Calculate the average and standard deviation of the number of cars sold per day.

(3)
(ii) Determine the value of the 80th percentile.

(2)
[11]

4
QUESTION 2

(a) In a sample space, suppose:

𝑃(𝐴) = 0.7, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.5, 𝑃(𝐶) = 0.1, 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.9 and 𝑃[(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ∩ 𝐶] = 0.

Determine:

(i) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

(ii) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶)

(iii) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶)

(iv) 𝑃(𝐵� ∩ 𝐶)

(4)
(b) If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent events, show that 𝐴 and 𝐵�are also independent.
Hint: Draw a Venn diagram and use the intersection of the events 𝐴 and 𝐵 as point of
departure.

(4)

5
(c) The chances of a child being left-handed are 1 in 2 if both parents are left-
handed, 1 in 6 if one parent is left-handed, and 1 in 16 if neither parent is left
handed. Suppose that, of couples having children, in 2% both father and mother
are left-handed, in 20% one is left-handed, and in the rest neither is left handed.

Define the following events:

𝐴 =Both parents left-handed
𝐵 =One of the parents left-handed
𝐶 =Neither parents left-handed
𝐷 =Child left-handed

What is the probability that neither parent of a left-handed child is left handed?

(4)
[12]

6
QUESTION 3

(a) A supermarket sells a certain brand of rice in four different packaging sizes: 0.25kg,
0.50 kg, 0.75 kg and 1 kg. Let 𝑋 be the size of packaging purchased by the next
customer to buy this brand of rice. Suppose that 𝑋 has the following probability
distribution:

𝑥 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

𝑝(𝑥) 𝑐 𝑐 𝑐 2𝑐

(i) Determine the value of 𝑐.

(1)
(ii) Determine the expected value of 1/𝑋.

(2)
(b) The moment generating function of a discrete random variable 𝑌 is given by:

𝑚(𝑡) = 0.7 + 0.2𝑒 𝑡 + 0.1𝑒 2𝑡

Determine the probability distribution of 𝑌.

(3)

7
(c) The cumulative distribution function of a random variable 𝑌 is represented in the
graph below:

F(y)
1.0 >
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1

< -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
y

(i) Use the graph to determine𝑃(3 ≤ 𝑌 ≤ 6).

(2)
(ii) Determine the following probabilities:

𝑃(𝑌 = 1)
𝑃(𝑌 = 2)

(2)
(iii) What is the median value of 𝑌?

(1)
[11]

8
QUESTION 4

Telephones of a certain type are returned for service while under warranty. Of these, 60%
can be repaired, whereas the other 40% must be replaced with new units. A company
purchases ten of these telephones. Consider 𝑌, the number of these telephones that will be
replaced under warranty.

(a) What is the total number of sample points or 10-tuples in this experiment?

(1)
(b) How many different sample points (10-tuples) in the sample space associated with
this experiment will contain exactly two telephones which will be replaced under
warranty?

(1)
(c) What is the expected value of 𝑌?

(1)
(d) Calculate the probability that exactly two telephones will be replaced under warranty.

(2)
(e) Calculate the probability that exactly two telephones will be repaired (and not
replaced) under warranty.

(2)
(f) Calculate 𝑃(𝑌 < 6) using Table 1.

(2)
[9]

9
QUESTION 5

(a) Of the people passing through an airport metal detector, 0.5% activate it. Let 𝑌 be
the number among a randomly selected group of 400 who activate the detector.

(i) What is the approximate probability distribution of 𝑌?

(2)
(ii) Use (i) to calculate 𝑃(𝑌 ≥ 5).

(2)
(b) In the daily production of a certain kind of a rope, the number of defects per metre, 𝑋,
is assumed to have a Poisson distribution, with mean 𝜆 = 2.

(i) How many defects can be expected in 10 metres of rope?

(1)
(ii) The profit per metre when the rope is sold, is given by 𝑌 where
𝑌 = 50 − 2𝑋 − 𝑋 2 . Calculate the expected profit per metre.

(3)

10
(c) A person tosses a fair die until a 6 is obtained for the first time. Calculate the
probability that a 6 is obtained for the first time on the fourth toss.

(2)

(d) Show that the geometric distribution has the memoryless property, that is, for a
geometrically distributed variable 𝑌, show that if 𝑎 > 0 and 𝑏 > 0 then
𝑃(𝑌 > 𝑎 + 𝑏|𝑌 > 𝑎) = 𝑃(𝑌 > 𝑏).
Hint: First show that 𝑃(𝑌 > 𝑎) = 𝑞 𝑎 .

(4)
[14]

11
QUESTION 6

The probability density function for a random variable 𝑋 is given by:

𝑥
0≤𝑥<5
25
𝑓(𝑥) = �2 −
𝑥
5 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 10.
5 25
0 elsewhere

(a) Use the grid below to sketch a graph of the probability density function of 𝑋.

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
(2)
(b) Derive the cumulative distribution function for the random variable 𝑋.

(5)
[7]

12
QUESTION 7

The random variable 𝑌 is uniformly distributed with parameters 0 and 𝜃.

𝜃𝑘
(a) Show that the 𝑘-th moment about the origin for 𝑌 is given by 𝜇𝑘′ = 𝐸(𝑌 𝑘 ) = 𝑘+1.

(3)
(b) Use (a) to derive an expression for the variance of 𝑌 in terms of its parameters.

(3)
[6]

13
QUESTION 8

Human body temperatures for healthy individuals have a normal distribution with mean
98.25ºF (degrees Fahrenheit) and standard deviation 0.75ºF.

(a) Determine the probability that a randomly chosen individual’s temperature is between
96 ºF and 97 ºF.

(4)
(b) Find the 90th percentile of the distribution of body temperatures for healthy
individuals.

(3)
(c) What temperature separates the coolest 10% from the others?

(3)
[10]

14
QUESTION 9

(a) The distribution function of a random variable 𝑌 is given by

−𝑦/2
𝐹(𝑦) = �1 − 𝑒 𝑦 > 0 . Determine the density function of 𝑌.
0 elsewhere

(2)
(b) In Figure 1 and 2 below a graphical representation is given of the density function
and cumulative distribution function for a random variable 𝑌.

0.010
F(y)
1.0 f(y)
0.008
0.8

0.6 0.006

0.4 0.004

0.2 0.002

0.0 0.000
0 100 200 300 0 100 200 300
y y

On each of these graphs indicate 𝑃(𝑌 ≤ 150) .

(2)
−𝑦/2
= 1. Let 𝑓(𝑦) = �𝑘𝑒 𝑦>0 .
∞
(c) Suppose 𝑓(𝑦) ≥ 0 for 𝑦 > 0and ∫0 𝑓(𝑦)
0 elsewhere
Complete and give the value of:
∞
� 𝑦𝑘𝑒 −𝑦/2 𝑑𝑦 =
0

(2)

15
 1
(d) Expand the moment-generating function 𝑚(𝑡) = of the random variable 𝑌 in the
1−2𝑡
𝑡2 𝑡3
form: 1 + 𝜇1′ 𝑡 + 𝜇2′ 2! + 𝜇3′ 3! + ⋯.

(2)
(e) Use your answer in (d) to complete:

𝜇1′ =

𝜇2′ =
(2)
[10]

16
QUESTION 10

(a) Let 𝑋 be a continuous random variable with moment generating function 𝑚𝑋 (𝑡).
Suppose that 𝑌 = 𝑎𝑋 + 𝑏. Show that the moment generating function of 𝑌 is given by
𝑚𝑌 (𝑡) = 𝑒 𝑏𝑡 𝑚𝑋 (𝑎𝑡).

(3)
(b) The moment generating function of a normally distributed random variable 𝑋 is given
1 2 2
by 𝑚𝑋 (𝑡) = 𝑒 𝜇𝑡+2𝑡 𝜎
.

(i) Use this to show that 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝜇 and 𝐸(𝑋 2 ) = 𝜎 2 + 𝜇2 .

(4)
(ii) Determine 𝑉(3𝑋 − 2).

(1)

17
(iii) Given that the moment generating function of a normally distributed random
1 2 2
variable 𝑋 is given by 𝑚𝑋 (𝑡) = 𝑒 𝜇𝑡+2𝑡 𝜎 and 𝑌 = 3𝑋 − 2. Use the result in (a)
to find the moment generating function of 𝑌.

(2)
(iv) What is the distribution and parameter values of 𝑌? Why?

(2)
[12]
TOTAL:102

18