Continuous Probability Distribution –

Normal

FOUNDATION TERM
Quantitative Methods – 2023
Session 6 & 7

Gunjan R Malhotra
gmalhotra@imt.edu; mailforgunjan@gmail.com

7/15/2023 Lecture notes prepared by Dr Gunjan R Malhotra, IMT Ghaziabad 1

 Continuous Probability Distribution

• A continuous random variable is a variable that can assume any value on a

continuum (can assume an uncountable number of values)
• thickness of an item
• time required to complete a task
• temperature of a solution
• height, in inches

• These can potentially take on any value depending only on the ability to
precisely and accurately measure

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 Properties of a Normal Distribution
Continuous random variable
• Has an infinite number of possible values that can be represented by an interval on
the number line.

Hours spent studying in a day The time spent

studying can be any
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 number between 0
and 24.

Continuous probability distribution

• The probability distribution of a continuous random variable.
• The normal distribution sometimes referred to as the Gaussian distribution

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 The Normal Distribution/ Gaussian Distribution
 The Normal Distribution
 Symmetric
 Bell-shaped
 Mean, Median and Mode are Equal
 Location is determined by the mean, μ
 Spread is determined by the standard
deviation, σ
 The random variable has an infinite theoretical
range:
+  to  
 Closely approximates the probability distribution
of a wide range of random variables, such as the
 Heights and weights of newborn babies
 Scores on GMAT
 Cumulative debt of college graduates
Normal Distribution serves as the
cornerstone of statistical inference.
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Lecture notes prepared by Dr Gunjan R Malhotra, IMT Ghaziabad
 The Normal Distribution

 Characteristics of the Normal Distribution

 Symmetric about its mean
 Mean = Median = Mode

 Asymptotic—that is, the

tails get closer and
closer to the P(X < m) P(X > m) = 0.5
horizontal axis,
but never touch it.

m x
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Lecture notes prepared by Dr Gunjan R Malhotra, IMT Ghaziabad
 Many Normal Distributions

• By varying the parameters μ and σ, we obtain

different normal distributions

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 The Normal Distribution Shape

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 Properties of Normal Distributions
Normal distribution
• A continuous probability distribution for a random variable, x.
• The most important continuous probability distribution in statistics.
• The graph of a normal distribution is called the normal curve.

x
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 Properties of Normal Distributions
1. The mean, median, and mode are equal.
2. The normal curve is bell-shaped and symmetric about the mean.
3. The total area under the curve is equal to one.
4. The normal curve approaches, but never touches the x-axis as it
extends farther and farther away from the mean.

Total area = 1

x
μ
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 Properties of Normal Distributions
5. Between μ – σ and μ + σ (in the center of the curve), the graph
curves downward. The graph curves upward to the left of μ – σ
and to the right of μ + σ. The points at which the curve changes
from curving upward to curving downward are called the inflection
points.

Inflection points

x
μ  3σ μ  2σ μσ μ μ+σ μ + 2σ μ + 3σ
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 Means and Standard Deviations
• A normal distribution can have any mean and any positive standard
deviation.
• The mean gives the location of the line of symmetry.
• The standard deviation describes the spread of the data.

μ = 3.5 μ = 3.5 μ = 1.5

σ = 1.5 σ = 0.7 σ = 0.7
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Example: Understanding Mean and Standard Deviation
1. Which curve has the greater mean?

Solution:
Curve A has the greater mean (The line of symmetry
of curve A occurs at x = 15. The line of symmetry of
curve B occurs at x = 12.)
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Example: Understanding Mean and Standard Deviation
2. Which curve has the greater standard deviation?

Solution:
Curve B has the greater standard deviation (Curve
B is more spread out than curve A.)

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 The Standard Normal Distribution
Standard normal distribution
• A normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a
standard deviation of 1.

Area = 1

z
3 2 1 0 1 2 3

• Any x-value can be transformed into a z-score by

using the formula
Value - Mean x-m
z 
Standard deviation 
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 The Standard Normal Distribution
• If each data value of a normally distributed random
variable x is transformed into a z-score, the result will
be the standard normal distribution.
Standard Normal
Normal Distribution
Distribution
 x-m
z
 1

m x m0 z

• Use the Standard Normal Table to find the

cumulative area under the standard normal curve.
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 Properties of the Standard Normal Distribution

1. The cumulative area is close to 0 for z-scores close to z

= 3.49.
2. The cumulative area increases as the z-scores increase.

Area is
close to 0 z
3 2 1 0 1 2 3
z = 3.49
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 Properties of the Standard Normal Distribution

3. The cumulative area for z = 0 is 0.5000.

4. The cumulative area is close to 1 for z-scores close
to z = 3.49.

Area
z
is close to 1
3 2 1 0 1 2 3
z=0 z = 3.49
Area is 0.5000
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 Example: Using The Standard Normal Table
Find the cumulative area that corresponds to a z-score of 1.15.

Solution:
Find 1.1 in the left hand column.
Move across the row to the column under 0.05
The area to the left of z = 1.15 is 0.8749.
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 Example: Using The Standard Normal Table
Find the cumulative area that corresponds to a z-score of -0.24.

Solution:
Find -0.2 in the left hand column.
Move across the row to the column under 0.04
The area to the left of z = -0.24 is 0.4052.
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 Finding Areas Under the Standard Normal Curve
1. Sketch the standard normal curve and shade the
appropriate area under the curve.
2. Find the area by following the directions for each
case shown.
a. To find the area to the left of z, find the area that
corresponds to z in the Standard Normal Table.
2. The area to the left
of z = 1.23 is 0.8907

1. Use the table to find

the area for the z-score
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 Finding Areas Under the Standard Normal Curve
b. To find the area to the right of z, use the Standard
Normal Table to find the area that corresponds to z.
Then subtract the area from 1.

2. The area to the 3. Subtract to find the area

left of z = 1.23 to the right of z = 1.23:
is 0.8907. 1  0.8907 = 0.1093.

1. Use the table to find the

area for the z-score.
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 Finding Areas Under the Standard Normal Curve
c. To find the area between two z-scores, find the area
corresponding to each z-score in the Standard Normal
Table. Then subtract the smaller area from the larger
area.

2. The area to the 4. Subtract to find the area of

left of z = 1.23 the region between the two
is 0.8907. z-scores:
3. The area to the 0.8907  0.2266 = 0.6641.
left of z = 0.75
is 0.2266.

1. Use the table to find the

area for the z-scores.
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Example: Finding Area Under the Standard Normal Curve
Find the area under the standard normal curve to the
left of z = -0.99.

Solution:

0.1611
z
0.99 0

From the Standard Normal Table, the area is

equal to 0.1611.
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Example: Finding Area Under the Standard Normal Curve
Find the area under the standard normal curve to the
right of z = 1.06.

Solution:

0.8554 1  0.8554 = 0.1446

z
0 1.06

From the Standard Normal Table, the area is equal to

0.1446.
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Example: Finding Area Under the Standard Normal Curve
Find the area under the standard normal curve
between z = 1.5 and z = 1.25.

Solution:
0.8944 0.0668 = 0.8276

0.8944
0.0668
z
1.50 0 1.25

From the Standard Normal Table, the area is equal to

0.8276.
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 Lecture notes prepared by Dr Gunjan R Malhotra, IMT
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Ghaziabad
 Probability and Normal Distributions
• If a random variable x is normally distributed, you can
find the probability that x will fall in a given interval by
calculating the area under the normal curve for that
interval.

P(x < 600) = Area μ = 500

σ = 100

x
μ =500 600

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Probability and Normal Distributions
Normal Distribution Standard Normal Distribution
μ = 500 σ = 100 μ=0 σ=1
x  m 600  500
z  1
P(x < 600)  100 P(z < 1)

x z
μ =500 600 μ=0 1

Same Area
P(x < 500) = P(z < 1)

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 Example: Finding Probabilities for Normal Distributions
A survey indicates that people use their computers an average of 2.4 years
before upgrading to a new machine. The standard deviation is 0.5 year. A
computer owner is selected at random. Find the probability that he or she will
use it for fewer than 2 years before upgrading. Assume that the variable x is
normally distributed.

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Solution: Finding Probabilities for Normal
Distributions
Normal Distribution Standard Normal Distribution
μ = 2.4 σ = 0.5 μ=0 σ=1
x  m 2  2.4
z   0.80 P(z < -0.80)
P(x < 2)  0.5

0.2119
x z
2 2.4 -0.80 0

P(x < 2) = P(z < -0.80) = 0.2119

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Example: Finding Probabilities for Normal Distributions
A survey indicates that for each trip to the supermarket, a shopper
spends an average of 45 minutes with a standard deviation of 12
minutes in the store. The length of time spent in the store is normally
distributed and is represented by the variable x. A shopper enters the
store. Find the probability that the shopper will be in the store for
between 24 and 54 minutes.

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Solution: Finding Probabilities for Normal
Distributions
Normal Distribution Standard Normal Distribution
μ = 45 σ = 12 μ=0 σ=1
x-m 24 - 45
z1    -1.75
 12 P(-1.75 < z < 0.75)
x - m 54 - 45
P(24 < x < 54) z2    0.75
 12
0.7734
0.0401
x z
24 45 54 -1.75 0 0.75

P(24 < x < 54) = P(-1.75 < z < 0.75)

= 0.7734 – 0.0401 = 0.7333
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 Example: Finding Probabilities for Normal Distributions
Find the probability that the shopper will be in the store more than 39
minutes. (Recall μ = 45 minutes and
σ = 12 minutes)

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Solution: Finding Probabilities for Normal
Distributions
Normal Distribution Standard Normal Distribution
μ = 45 σ = 12 μ=0 σ=1
x-m 39 - 45
z   -0.50 P(z > -0.50)
 12
P(x > 39)

0.3085
x z
39 45 -0.50 0

P(x > 39) = P(z > -0.50) = 1– 0.3085 = 0.6915

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 Example – Normal distribution
• Suppose, if the sample is distributed normally with mean of 100 seconds
and standard deviation of 50 seconds. What is the probability that the
video download time from YouTube will be between 100 to 200 seconds?
• If X is distributed normally with mean of $100 and standard deviation of
$50, the Z value for X = $200 is

X  μ $200  $100
Z   2.0
σ $50
• This says that X = $200 is two standard deviations (2 increments of $50
units) above the mean of $100.
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 Comparing X and Z units

• Note that the shape of the distribution is the same, only the scale has
changed.
• We can express the problem in the original units (X in dollars) or in
standardized units (Z)
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 Finding Normal Probabilities

• Probability is measured by the area under the curve

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 The Standardized Normal Table

•The Cumulative Standardized Normal table in the textbook gives the

probability less than a desired value of Z (i.e., from negative infinity to Z).
Example:
P(Z < 2.00) = 0.9772

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Lecture notes prepared by Dr Gunjan R Malhotra, IMT Ghaziabad
 Normal Probability Distribution

• NORMAL PROBABILITIES
• =NORM.DIST(X, mean, standard_dev, cumulative)
Probability from 0 to 2 =
• = NORM.DIST(200,100,50,TRUE)
0.4775
• = 0.9775

• STANDARDIZE FUNCTION
• =NORM.S.DIST(z, cumulative)
• =NORM.S.DIST(2, TRUE)
• =0.9775
100 200 (μ = 100, σ = 50)
X
• So, the probability that the video download time from YouTube 0 2.0 (μ = 0, σ = 1)
Z
will be between 100 to 200 seconds =
• P(X=200) or P(z=2) = 0.9775 – 0.5 = 0.4775

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 Finding Normal Probabilities
• Let X represent the time it takes (in seconds) to download an image file from
the internet.
• Suppose X is normal with a mean of18.0 seconds and a standard deviation of
5.0 seconds. Find P(X < 18.6) X  μ 18.6  18.0
Z   0.12
σ 5.0

X
18.0
18.6
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 Solution: Finding P(Z < 0.12)

Standardized Normal Probability

Table (Portion)

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 Finding Normal Upper Tail Probabilities

• Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0 and standard deviation 5.0.

• Now Find P(X > 18.6)
• P(X > 18.6) = P(Z > 0.12) = 1.0 - P(Z ≤ 0.12) = 1.0 - 0.5478 = 0.4522

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 Finding a Normal Probability Between Two Values

• Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0 and standard deviation 5.0. Find
P(18 < X < 18.6).
• Calculate Z-values:
X  μ 18  18
Z  0
σ 5

X  μ 18.6  18
Z   0.12
σ 5
P(18 < X < 18.6)
= P(0 < Z < 0.12)
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 Solution: Finding P(0 < Z < 0.12)

• Standardized Normal Probability

Table (Portion)

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Lecture notes prepared by Dr Gunjan R Malhotra, IMT Ghaziabad
 Probabilities in the Lower Tail

• Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0 and standard deviation 5.0.

• Now Find P(17.4 < X < 18)
The Normal distribution is symmetric, so this
probability is the same as P(0 < Z < 0.12)

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 Empirical Rules

• What can we say about the distribution of values around the mean?
• For any normal distribution: μ ± 1σ encloses about 68.26% of X’s
μ ± 2σ covers about 95% of X’s
μ ± 3σ covers about 99.7% of X’s

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 Given a Normal Probability Find the X Value

• Steps to find the X value for a known probability:

1. Find the Z value for the known probability
2. Convert to X units using the formula:
X  μ  Zσ

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 Given a Normal Probability Find the X Value

Example:
• Let X represent the time it takes (in seconds) to download an image file from
the internet.
• Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0 and standard deviation 5.0
• Find X such that 20% of download times are less than X.

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 Find the Z value for 20% in the Lower Tail

• 1. Find the Z value for the known probability

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 Finding the X value

2. Convert to X units using the formula:

X  μ  Zσ
 18.0  (0.84)5.0
 13.8

So 20% of the values from a distribution with mean 18.0 and

standard deviation 5.0 are less than 13.80 ( X value).

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 Example 2: Grear Tire Company Problem

• Suppose the Grear Tire Company developed a new steel-belted radial tire to be
sold through a national chain of discount stores. Because the tire is a new product,
Grear’s managers believe that the mileage guarantee offered with the tire will be
an important factor in the acceptance of the product. Before finalizing the tire
mileage guarantee policy, Grear’s managers want probability information about x=
number of miles the tire will last.
• For actual road test with the tires, Grear’s engineering group estimated that the
mean tire mileage is µ = 35, 500 miles and that the standard deviation is σ = 5000.
In addition, the data collected indicate that a normal distribution is a reasonable
assumption.
• A. What percentage of the tires can be expected to last more than 40,000 miles? In
other words, what is the probability that the tire mileage, x, will exceed
40,000?Use normal distribution to solve this problem.

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 Example Solution 2.

• At x = 40000, we have

X m
Z

40000 −35500
•Z= = .90
5000
• Z =0.90 on the standard normal distribution
• Using standard normal probability table, we get .18406 as the probability
that z will exceed .90 and hence x will exceed 40,000.
• We conclude that 18.40% of the tires will exceed 40,000 in mileage.
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 Example 3: GMAT
• The Graduate Management Aptitude Test (GMAT), produced by the Princeton
Review in Princeton, New Jersy, is widely used graduate schools of business in
US as an entrance requirement. Assuming that the scores are normally
distributed, probabilities of achieving scores over various ranges of the GMAT
can be determined. In a recent year, the mean GMAT score was 540 and the
standard deviation was about 100. What is the probability that a randomly
selected score from this administration of the GMAT is between 660 and the
mean?
• z = 660 -540 / 100 = 1.20
• I.e. z = 1.20 reveals that the GMAT score of 660 is 1.2 standard deviations more
than the mean. The z distribution values give us the probability as a value
being between this value x and the mean, So the probability value for z = 1.20
is .3849.
• The probability value given always is the probability or area between an X
value and the mean. i.e. the desired area.
• Here, .3849 of the scores on the GMAT are between a score of 660 and the
mean 540.
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 Example 4: Find Probability

Given a standardized normal distribution (with mean of 0

and a standard deviation of 1), what is the probability that
• a. Z is less than 1.08?
• b. Z is greater than -0.21?
• c. Z is less than -0.21?
• d. Z is between -0.21 and 1.08?

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 Example Solution 4: Find Probability

• (a) P(Z < 1.08) = 0.8599

• (b) P(Z > – 0.21) = 0.5832
• (c) 0.4168
• (d) 0.4431

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 Example 5: Normal Distribution

 Scores
on a management aptitude exam are normally distributed with a
mean of 72 (m) and a standard deviation of 8 ().
 What is the probability that a randomly selected manager will score
above 60?

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 Example 5: Excel Format
• STANDARDIZE
• =STANDARDIZE(x, mean, standard_dev)
• =STANDARDIZE(60,72,8) = -1.5

• NORMAL PROBABILITIES
• =NORM.DIST(X, mean, standard_dev, cumulative)
• = NORM.DIST(60,72,8,TRUE) = 0.0668

• STANDARDIZE FUNCTION
• =NORM.S.DIST(z, cumulative)
• =NORM.S.DIST(-1.5, TRUE)
• =0.0668

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 Example Case -1 – Normal Downloading at MyTVLab
• You are a project manager for the MyTVLab website, an online service that streams
movies and episodes from broadcast and cable TV series and allows users to
upload and share original videos. To attract and retain visitors to the website, you
need to ensure that users can quickly download the exclusive-content daily videos.
• To check how fast a video downloads, you open a web browser on a computer at
the corporate offices of MyTVLab, load the MyTVLab home page, download the
first website-exclusive video and measure the download time. Download time –
the amount of time in seconds, that passes from first clicking a download link until
the video is ready to play – is a function of both the streaming media technology
used and the number of simultaneous users of the website. Past data indicate that
the mean download time is 7 seconds and that the standard deviation is 2
seconds. Approximately two thirds of the download times are between 5 and 9
seconds, and about 95% of the download times are between 3 and 11 seconds. In
other words, the download time are distributed as a bell-shaped curve, with a
clustering around the mean of 7 seconds. How could you use this information to
answer questions about the download times of the first video?
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 Example Case 1 - Questions

• A. What is the probability that the video download time for the MyTVLab website
will be more than 9 seconds?
• B. What is the probability that the video download time for the MyTVLab website
will be less than 7 seconds or more than 9 seconds?
• C. What is the probability that the video download time for the MyTVLab website
will be between 5 and 9 seconds?
• D. How much time (in seconds) will elapse before the fastest 10% of the
downloads of a MyTVLab video are complete?
• E. What are the lower and upper values of X, symmetrically distributed around the
mean, that include 95% of the download times for a video at the MyTVLab
website?

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 X m
Example Case Solution – 1 Z
• Mean = 7 ; standard deviation = 2 seconds

• Ans A. The probability that the download time will be less than 9 seconds
X  m  Z
Probability = 0.1587.
• Ans B. The probability that the download time will be less than 7 seconds
Probability = 0.6587
• Ans. C. The probability that the download time will be between 5 seconds and 9
seconds
• Probability = 0.6826.
• Ans D. 10% videos are expected to download in X = ? Seconds .
X = 7 + (-1.28)(2) = 4.44 seconds.
Thus, 10% of the download times are 4.44 seconds or less.
• Ans. E. Similarly For 95% of the values we have z = -1.96 and z = +1.96.
Therefore, x = 7 + (-1.96) (2) = 3.08 seconds. Also, X = 7 + (+1.96) (2) = 10.92 seconds.
Therefore, 95% of the download times are between 3.08 and 10.92 seconds.
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• Thank You for your attention!

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