BCM4C04 Quantitative Techniques for Business 2023

Dr. Josheena Jose

Module 3

PROBABILITY

Fill in the blanks:

1. Probability of a sure event is---------------

Ans one
2. Two events are said to be independent if ------------------
Ans one does not affect the occurrence of the other
3. 10C10 is equal to ------------
Ans one
4. Classical probability is also known as----------------
Ans mathematical or a priori or Laplace probability
5. The relative frequency approach of probability is known as---------------
Ans statistical probability
6. The probability of the intersection of two mutually exclusive events is always----------
---
Zero
7. The theory of probability provides a numerical measure of the element of --------------
----
Ans uncertainty
8. The result of random experiment is called------------------
Ans outcome
9. ---------------- refers to separate arrangement of different objects contained in a sset of
elements.
Ans permutation

State the following statements are true or false

10. The values of probability lie in between 0 and 1

Ans True
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Dr. Josheena Jose

11. A set of events is mutually exclusive an exhaustive if one of them must occur.
Ans True
12. The classical definition of probability does not require the actual experimentation.
Ans True
13. A conditional probability is the sum of joint probabilities over one set of possible
outcomes.
Ans false
14. What is probability?

The term probability refers to the chance of happening or non happening of an event.
Degree of uncertainty about the happening of an event.

15. What is sample space?

It is a set of all possible results or outcomes of an experiment. It is also known as an

exhaustive set of the events.

16. What is sample point?

Each one of the possible results of an experiment represented as an element of a sample

space is called sample point.

17. What is random experiment?

An experiment that has two or more outcomes which vary in an unpredictable manner
from trial to trial when conducted under uniform conditions, is called a random
experiment.

18. What is joint probability?

Joint probability means the joint occurrence of two or more events.
19. What is conditional probability?

Let A and B be any two events . the probability of event A given that the event B has already
occurred or the conditional probability of A given B, denoted by P(A/B), is defined as
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P(A/B) = P (A∩B)

P(B)

The conditional probability of B given A, denoted by P(B/A), is defined as

P(B/A) = P (A∩B)

P(A)

20. Give the classical definition of probability .

Or

Why is classical probability also called "a priori probability”

Classical definition of probability is, “ if a trial results in n mutually exclusive equally likely
and exhaustive cases and m of them are favourable (m≤n)to the happening of an eventA,
then the probability of A, designated as P (A)is defined as ,

P(A) =m =No.of favourable cases

n Total number of cases

clearly 0≤ P(A)≤ 1

when P(A)=0, A is called an impossible event

when P(A)=1, A is called a sure event

Classical probability is also known as “a priori” probability because, if we keep using

orderly examples of unbiased dice ,fair coin etc., we can state the answer in advance
without rolling a dice, tossing a coin etc. that is ,it enables us to obtain probability by
logical reasoning prior to making any actual trials.

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21. Difference between A priori and empirical probabilities.

In a priori probability, the total possible In empirical probability , the total possible
outcome is finite. outcome is infinite

In a priori probability, evens must be In empirical probability , this must not be a

equally likely required condition.

and mutually exclusive

In a priori probability, experimental In empirical probability, the experimental

conditions must remain homogeneous and conditions may not remain essentially
identical. homogeneous and identical

In a priori probability is not based on past In empirical probability is derived from past
data or past experience experience.

22. What are the types of events?

Sure event (certain event), impossible event (empty set), uncertain event, equally likely
event, mutually exclusive events, exhaustive events, mutually exclusive and exhaustive
events, independent events, dependent events.

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Sure event (certain event)

An event which is sure to take place when a random experiment is performed. Eg, getting a
blue ball from a bag containing all blue balls.

Impossible event (empty set)

An event which can never take place when an experiment is performed. Eg, getting a white
ball from a bag containing all black balls

Uncertain event

It is the event which cannot predict its happening.eg, getting a black ball from a bag
containing white and black balls . it is uncertain.

Equally likely event

Each of the event has equal chance of happening and none of them is expected to occur
more often than the other.eg, getting head and getting tail when a coin is tossed.

Mutually exclusive event

If the happening of one event excludes or prevents the happening of another at the same
time. Eg, while tossing a coin , either a head can come up or a tail can come up, but both can
not come up at the same time. If head comes, we cannot get a tail. If tail comes, we cannot
get a head.

Exhaustive events

All possible outcomes of a random experiment under consideration. Eg,When a die is

thrown all possible outcomes are 1,2,3,4,5,6 hence the exhaustive number of cases is 6.

Mutually exclusive and exhaustive events

One of them must and only one can occur.

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Independent events

If the occurrence of one of them in no way affects the occurrence of the other. eg, In tossing
a coin twice the result of second tossing is not affected by the result of the first tossing.

Dependent event

If the happening of one event affects the happening of the other.eg, from a pack of 52 cards
if one card is drawn then 51 cards are left. If another card is drawn without replacing the
first, the chance of the send draw is affected by the first draw.

23. Explain Limitations of classical approach.

a) This is confined to the problems of games of chance only and cannot explain the
problem other than the games of chance.
b) When the outcomes of a random experiment are not equally likely, this method
cannot be applied.
c) It is difficult to sub divide the possible outcomes of experiment into mutually
exclusive exhaustive and equally likely in most cases
d) It does not require the actual experimentation
e) It is difficult to predetermined the outcome of a large number of random trials.

24. Explain the relative frequency definition of probability.

If we repeat a random experiment great number of times under essentially the same
conditions , the limit of the ratio of the number of times that an event happens to the
total number of trials as the number of trials increase indefinitely is called the
probability of the happening of the event.

25. What are the properties of probability?

a) Probability of an event lies between 0and 1
b) Let S denote the sample space. Therefore ‘S’ is a sure event. Then P(S)=1
c) If A and B are two mutually exclusive events then P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B)

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Explain the law of statistical regularity.

The outcomes of a random experiment vary in an unpredictable manner. The
relative frequency of an event have a tendency to become more and more stable as
the number of repetitions of the experiment increases. This tendency is known as
the law of statistical regularity.
26. Difference between permutation and combination.

Permutation give importance to any order of arrangements. Combination does not give
importance to placement.

Number of Taking at a Combination (nC Permutation( nP r)

objects(n) time( r) r)

AB 2 AB AB,BA

ABC 3 ABC ABC,ACB,BCA,BAC,CAB,CBA

Find the value of nPr

nPr= n!

(n-r)!

Find the value of nCr

nCr = n!

r!(n-r)! *****************************

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Additional problems

1 What is the probability that a leap year selected at random will contain 53 Sundays?

2 What is the chance that a non-leap year will contain 53 Sundays?

Two cions are tossed, what is the probability of getting (1) both heads, (2) one head, (3) at
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least one head, (4) no head.
Three unbiased coins are tossed. What is the probability of obtaining (1) all heads (2) two
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heads (3) one head (4) at least one head
A ball is drawn from a bag containing 4 white, 6 black and 5 green balls. Find the
5 probability that a ball drawn is (1) white,(2) green,(3) black,(4) not green, (5) green or
white.
There are 17 balls numbered from 1 to 17 in a bag. If a person selects one at random what
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is the probability that the number printed on the ball be an even number greater than 9?
If odds in favour of A solving a problem are 2 to 3 and odds against B solving problem are 3
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to 5. Find probability for (1) A solving the problem, (2) B solving the problem.

8 A die is thrown. Find the probability (1) an even number (2) '3' or '5' and (3) less than 3.

9 In how many ways can 4 red balls be drawn from a bag containing 10 red balls

What is the probability of getting 3 white balls in a draw of 3 balls from a box containing 5
10
white and 4 black balls?
The letters of the word 'STATISTICS' are written on 10 identical cards. If two cards are
11 drawn at random, what is the probability that (1) one 'S' and one 'I' will occur (2) two 'T'
will occur

12 What is the probability of selecting two 'M' from the letters of the word 'MANAGEMENT' ?

Three letters are selected from the letters of the word 'ASSASSINATIONS' What is the
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probability that (1) all are 'S' (2) Exactly one is 'I'

14 If A and B are two mutually exclusive events and P(A) =0.45 and P (B)=0.35, find P(A or B)

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A bag contains 4 white, 2 black, 3 yellow and 3 red balls. What is the probability of getting a
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white or a red ball at random in a single draw of one.

16 If P(A)=1/5, P(B)=1/4 and P(A∩B)=1/10. Find P(AUB).

17 If P(A)=1/13, P(B)=1/4 and P(AUB)=4/13. Find P(A∩B).

18 Find the probability of drawing an ace or a spade from a pack of cards.

A bag contains 6 white and 4 black balls, then what is the probability of (1) drawing 2 white
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and 2 black balls, (2) drawing 1 white and 3 black balls
A committee is to be constituted by selecting 2 people at random from a group consisting of
20 3 economists and 4 statisticians. Find the probability that the committee will consist of (1)2
economist, (2) 2 statisticians (3) 1 economists and 1 statisticians
There are 4 men and 3 women. Find the probability of selecting 3 of which (1) exactly 2 are
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women ,(2) no woman, (3) at least 1 woman, (4) at least 2 women,(5) at most 2 women
A bag contains 7 white and 9 black balls. 3 balls are drawn together. What is the probability
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that (1) all are black, (2) all are white (3) 1 white and 2 black (4) 2 white and 1 black
A committee of four people is to be appointed from 3 officers of the production
department, 4 officers of purchase department, two officers of sales department and one
23 chartered accountant. Find the probability of forming the committee in the following
manner (1) there must one from each category,(2) it should have at least one from the
purchase department, (3)the chartered accountant must be in the committee.
A subcommittee of 6 members is to be formed out of a group of 7 men and 4 ladies. Obtain
24 the probability that the subcommittee will consist of (1) exactly 2 ladies (2) at least 2 ladies
(3) utmost 2 ladies.
The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is 2/3 and the probability
25 that he will not get an electric contract is 5/9. If the probability of getting at least one
contract is 4/5, what is the probability that he will get both the contracts?
The probability of a student passes Statistics is 2/3, the probability that he passes both,
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statistics and Accountancy tests is 14/45. The probability of passing at least one subject is

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4/5, what is the probability he passes the Accountancy test?

The probability that a student Mr X passes Mathematics is 2/3, the probability that he
27 passes statistics is 4/9. If the probability of passing at least one subject is 4/5, what is the
probability that Mr X will pass both the subject?
Probability that A will pass paper I is 0.3 and probability that he will pass paper II is 0.7.
28 What is the probability that he will pass both the papers (Assume passing the two papers
as independent)
The probability that A solves a problem in statistics is 2/5 and the probability that B solves
29 it is 3/8. If they try independently find the probability that (1) both solve the problem (2)
none solves the problem, (3) at least one solves the problem.
A university has to select an examiner from a list of 50 persons. 20 of them are women and
30 30 men. 10 of them know Hindi and 40 do not, 15 of them are teachers and remaining are
not. What is the probability of the University selecting a Hindi knowing Woman Teacher?
Two persons A and B attempt independently to solve a puzzle. The probability that A will
31 solve is 3/5 and the probability that B will solve is 1/3. Find the probability that the puzzle
will be solved by at least one of them.
The odds against X solving a business statistics problem are 8 to 6 and odds in favour of
32 student Y solving the same problem are 14 to 16. What is the probability that (1) problem
is solved (2) problem is not solved.
Probability that A solves the problem is 0.5, probability that B solves is 0.4. What is the
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probability that the problem is solved by at least one of them?
If the probability of a horse A winning a race is 1/5 and the probability of a horse B winning
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the same is 1/6. What is the probability that one of the horses will win.
The probability that boy will get a scholarship is 0.9 and a girl will get is 0.8. What is the
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probability that at least one of them will get the scholarship?
A problem in Statistics is given to students A,B and Choose chances of solving are 1/2, 1/3
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and 1/4 respectively. What is the probability that the problem will not be solved?

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A class consists of 80 students, 25 of them are girls and 55 boys. 10 of them are rich and
37 remaining poor. 20 of them are fair complexioned. What is the probability of selecting a fair
complexioned rich girl?

38 State the addition and multiplication theorems of probability.

Three persons A, B and C are simultaneously shooting a target. Probability of A hitting the
39 target is 1/4 that of B is 1/2 and that of C is 2/3. Find the probability (1) exactly one of
them will hit the target, (2) at least one of them will hit the target.
A candidate is selected for interview for three posts. For the first post there are 3
40 candidates, for the second there are 4 and for the third there rae 2. What are the chances of
his getting at least one post?
Given A, B and C are independent events P(A)=0.3, P(B)=0.2 and P©=0.4. Find the
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probability for (1) all occurring and (2) none occurring.
A certain player say X, is known to win with probability 0.3 if the track is fast and 0.4 if the
42 track is slow. For Monday there is a 0.7 probability of a fast track and 0.3 probability of a
slow track. What is the probability that player X will win on Monday.
One bag contains 4 white and 2 black balls. Another contains 3 white and 5 black balls. One
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ball is drawn from each bag. Find the probability that both are of same colour
An urn 'A' contains 2 white and 4 black balls. Another urn 'B' contains 5 white and 7 black
44 balls. A ball is transferred from urn 'A' to urn 'B'. Then a ball is drawn from urn 'B'. Find the
probability, that it will be white.
20% of all students in a university are graduates and 80% are undergraduates. The
probability that graduate students is married is 0.50 and the probability that an
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undergraduate student is married is 0.10. One student is selected at random, what is the
probability that the student selected is married?
A speaks truth in 70% cases and B in 85% cases. In what percentage of cases are they likely
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to contradict each other in stating the same fact.
A speaks truth in 60% cases and B in 70% cases. In what percentage of cases are they likely
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to contradict each other in stating the same fact.

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There are two urns on containing 5 white and 4 black balls and other containing 6 white
48 and 5 black balls. One urn is chosen and one ball is drawn. If it is white, what is the
probability that the urn selected is the first.
The probability that a doctor will diagnose a particular disease correctly is 0.6. The
probability that a patient will die by his treatment after correctly diagnosis is 0.4 and the
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probability of death by wrong diagnosis is 0.7. A patient of the doctor who had the disease
died. What is the probability that his disease was not correctly diagnosed.
The chance that a female worker in a chemical factory will contact an occupational disease
is 0.4and the chance for a male worker is 0.06. Out of 1000 workers in a factory200 are
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females. One worker is selected at random and is found to have contacted the disease. What
is the probability that the worker is female?
In a bolt factory machine A,B,C manufacture respectively 25%,35% and 405 of the total. Of
their output,5,4 and 2 percent are defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the
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product and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was manufactured by
Machine A?
A bag contains 2 white and 3 black balls another contains 3 white and 2 black balls. A ball is
52 drawn from one of the bags and found to be white. What is the probability that it is from
first bag?

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