Sustainable Planning and Architecture

Lecture 2

One planet, How many people?

This is like a rising question that we have presently; we travel together, passengers on a little
spaceship, dependent on its vulnerable reserves of air and soil; all committed, for our safety, to
its security and peace; preserved from annihilation only by the care, the work and the love we
give our fragile craft. We cannot maintain it half fortunate, half miserable, and half confident,
half despairing, half slave - to the ancient enemies of man - half free in liberation of resources
undreamt of until this day. No craft, no crew can travel safely with such vast contradictions. On
their resolution depends the survival of us all

- Adlai Stevenson, speech to the UN Economic and Social Council, Geneva, Switzerland (9th July
1965)

It's like when we are all traveling on this spaceship that has this certain amount of reserve of air
and soil. We depend on these resources that must be utilized very carefully since it can take
care of needs of several people not for today alone but for the future as well. We must
understand the past and current scenarios in order to plan on how to maintain such resources
for the future as well.

Earth can be conceived as this vast space, especially when you are standing on top of a
mountain, or even a huge landscape, but is this true? Currently the world's population is about
7,000,000,000, in the past, by 1804 it was 1 billion and it started growing gradually. In 1927, we
were twice the previous number, in 1960; thrice the number. We have been growing ever since
and by 2011, we already reached 11 billion. We need to look at how this growth has been
happening when compared to the past.

The overall growth;

From the picture above, it is evident that China alone contributes to 19.4% of the world's
population, while India being second contributes to 17.5% of the world's population, the
second largest number of people. Only then comes, US - 4.5 and Indonesia - 3.4 and other
countries that contribute to high population but not significantly are; Brazil, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Nigeria, Russia and Japan. But compared to any of these, China and India
contribute the most. The other countries such as; other European states and UK all contribute
to a population of 41.2 percentage. It has been estimated that, on an average of 4.2 days, we (
India ) add about 1 million population to the already existing 7 million population and it has
also been estimated that, per year, we add about 87 million people to our present 7 billion
population. This has been increasing ever since, and each year we are accounting to 87 million.
All this, is due to the medical advancement that has taken place across the years in India. Back
then, people died at the drop of a hat for a small minor viral infection, but with today's medical
advancements, the average life expectancy has increased to 75/80 years of age. It is like people
are getting added and added into this world and there is no space left for people, for the land
usage, for the new ones. So, we are adding people to existing planet, the land is not growing in
any more, the glaciers are melting and the land is actually depleting. The rising question is;

How many people can we fit on a spaceship Earth?

The land that we have is limited and it has been depleting, the resources are depleting day by
day as well. Hence, we need to calculate as to how many people can fit on this Earth upto a
maximum threshold for it to reach and for us to be safe on a safer limit. It is like we are already
travelling on this overloaded bus which is completely filled and you won’t know when one
passenger is added until there is a threshold point which are added by the passengers on top
and only when there are few more passages added, this whole system will collapse. So, we
need to find the limit and work towards it and how these resources can be used by the
population that we have and which has been growing every day.

One of the ideas most emphasized by the Stockholm Resilience Center is the susceptibility of
key Earth System processes to "tipping points". They believe that exceeding these threshold
risks triggering abrupt environmental change. Think of the Earth system as a bus that is
overloaded. Up to a point each new rider has a "Linear" impact - causing the bus to tilt a little
more and more when it turns.

So at a certain point, when people are just piling up on to the truck, there is a little linear
impact, but we never know at which point, it the entire bus going to collapse. So it is the same
way, with regard to planet Earth. The population simply piles up by 87 million per year, we are
still in the comfort zone, unaware of the fact that, the Earth is going to collapse, not knowing
when. This also leads to the depletion of resources, thereby leaving the Earth bare of all its
resources for the upcoming generations.

Earth's carrying capacity has been measured by several U.S census Bureaus. Some say, 2 billion,
some say, more than 4 billion, this goes on to 34, 68 etc. In a survey of estimates of the Earth's
carrying capacity, the majority of the estimates put the Earth's limit at or below 8 Billion
people, which we are to exceed in about 15 years. So we are already 7 billion people. According
to 65 different estimates, so what happens to the resources we have? Will it deplete in 15 years
as well? It is also said, by the Calculation Methodology for the National Footprint Accounts,
2010 by Eing. B, Reed, A.Galli, K.Kitzes, J and Wackernagel that " If everyone lived the lifestyle
of the average American, we would need five planet Earths to provide the needed land and
ecosystem goods and services."

Stockholm Resilience Centre

Stockholm Resilience Centre has identified nine such key processes in the global ecosystem
which they feel are being altered enough by human activity to put the stability of the Earth
System at risk.

The graphic shows those nine Earth System processes. Several of these are global in scale, such
as climate change, ocean acidification and stratospheric ozone.

The main concern of today is; climate change, Nitrogen cycle and Biodiversity loss. These three
are major threat to the Earth, and we must look into these in order to find different ways on
how to reduce the footprint of an average human being.

Climate change, Rate of Biodiversity loss and Changes to the global Nitrogen cycle.
Coming to the first point;
Climate Change:
"Increase the risk of irreversible climate change, such as the loss of major ice sheets,
accelerated sea level rise and abrupt shifts in forest and agricultural systems." A second
boundary already passed in loss of biodiversity. While it is clear that biodiversity is an important
component of ecosystem resilience. As a provisional boundary they propose 10 times the
natural rate of extinction.

For instance; those times when our senior citizens talk about how the weather has changed
drastically over the years, it used to not be so hot and also how rarely unseasonal rains used to
occur. It is estimated that by 2016, there will be a rise in temperature by 5 degree celsius, which
will not cause increase in temperature but in turn will melt the ice sheets which simply
increases the seawater level causing the depletion of land and the ozone layer will face
defecation which affects the sea as well.

A second boundary already passed is the loss of biodiversity. While it is clear that biodiversity is
an important component of ecosystem resilience. As a provisional boundary they propose 10
times the natural rate of extinction. Today, we use resources and live our lives like there is no
tomorrow. We fail to remember that the entire planet is a constitution of different elements
and that we are just a small part of it. The ecosystem constitutes organisms which help and we
are mutually dependent on each other for our growth and our existence. Due to our increase in
our social and cultural lifestyle, we are going against nature (deforestation, more plastic
consumption, etc.) and we have reduced the level of other biodegradable resources. For
instance; due to the high usage of mobile phones, the radiations have in turn affected the life
span of a normal bird. This is something we all know but seem to never curb the usage of such
harmful resources. So, this is like a biodiversity that has been affected as such, so we need to
have a closer look of how this can be protected, how we can go by a complete cycle and not
just be ignored by other elements.

The third boundary that is estimated to have already been exceeded is the nitrogen cycle and
more generally for the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. These are important nutrients with
central roles in both natural and agricultural productivity. Since we have exceeded the usage
for nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, it is also affected by elements that we use every day like;
refrigerators, washing machine that release carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide, which is
creating adverse effect by depleting the agriculture and natural productivity.

The Earth is affected by various important elements such as; Population growth causes; Solid
Waste, congested Human habitation, Forest destruction, Water pollution, Human suffering
and Atmospheric pollution. We have been cutting down trees more than we ever did, it is
because of the population increase.

It is estimated that in the year 1989, we have increased by 2.1 % with regard to population in
just a year, which is a tremendous growth when compared to the past and since then; we have
never stopped growing year after year. However, we cannot estimate each year, how much is
being added, it has been differing every year and every day, it has been increasing constantly.
On the contrary, there are some countries in Europe like Spain, Greece etc., who work towards
lowering their growth aspect of GDP, thereby reducing the birth rate. So it is not just an
incremental factor, it also reduces in some of the cities. So in these cities where the birth rate is
decreasing, the cities are filled with people who belong to their old age, varying from 50’s to
70’s, thereby reducing their growth rate economically as well since there is nobody earning in
their city. The people in their old age, who cannot work and rather should be taken care by
someone else, the people who are more dependent on others. But we need people to develop
the country and people who can take care of their resources and who can guide us and teach us
how it can be used for. So, population growth cannot be classified to be an incremental factor
on a global scale.

So, one planet, how many people?

The human footprint has grown to such a scale that it has become a major geophysical force.
Earth's carrying capacity, has been estimated by 2012 to be the greatest concentration of
estimates fall between 8 and 16 billion people. It is also estimated, that by the end of the
century, we will be in the lower limit of eight billion people. Even though we might be in a safer
zone,

So by 2011, we have already reached 7 billion people. It has also been predicted that, by the
end of this century, we will be in the lower limit of 8 billion people. Though, we might be in the
safe zone currently, we have to look at what might happen if we do reach, 16 billion people. We
need to find different solutions on how to curb the increase in population and depletion of
resources.

Back in the year 1950, the birth rate and death rate were in equilibrium. However, as years
passed, the birth rate differed from death rate by a slight variation. As we move further, at
stage 3, the birth rate rose to a larger scale, while the death rate began to soar much lower
than ever before. Which basically increased the population. As we move on to Stage 4, the birth
rate dropped to the same level as the death rate, because of medical advancements. Is this the
balance we can maintain? No, since the death rate is very low and the birth rate is low as well,
we need to find a balance that is useful for global development.

How to save "the PLANET"?

Population growth remains a major concern for future wellbeing

Even though if we can reduce the growth of population, the basic population is multiplied by
amount of psychological footprint each human being is making. So population cannot be
completely ignored, or completely rebuked, that is not the right way to do it or go about it. So
population growth is a major concern, so population growth must be made into a positive
aspect of how to make new initiatives to preserve and create new alternatives for depleting
natural resources. So, that is one of the most important points that we need to discuss about.

Material consumption is a major concern.

How much one person is consuming from the psychological footprint is important. Though the,
developed countries are making a huge psychological footprint, even though their population is
less, developing countries like India, China, are all contributing to less psychological footprint.
Population is almost contributing to 40 - 50% of the overall world population; we need to
stabilize usage which can be found out by different alternative methods to reduce the material
consumption we have. For example; In USA, we can find four wheelers used on an everyday
basis, even to commune for a short distance. But when you compare it to India or other smaller
Asian countries, we are more dependent on our public transportation system. These are some
of the aspects that must be looked into, which can be clubbed together, can be improved in
other countries like usage of public transportation, carpooling or combining people to combine
and use energy sources, which in turn will be used for other people in need like the people in
Africa suffering due the less amount of resources they get and they don’t even have good water
to drink, So, these are some of the aspects which need to be looked at on a global scale, not
just in your country/ state/ street. These are some of the factors and resources which are
available for the whole world. So, we need to find ideas and policies which can stabilize this.

Demography is not destiny

Which means there are different UN statistics that say 8 billion or 16 billion, that is the limit.
But nobody actually knows what the limit is. So, we cannot completely rely on demography as
one tool but it cannot be completely ignored as well. This has to be waited and looked about.
We need to make some of the policies and measures to control, we have to be prepared if it is
the worst condition that is about to happen.

We must all play a role in finding human centered, rights based policies.

Which means, it is just not concerning your own country, it has to be globally looked at. We
must have new policies that say human policies to be centered and other things have to be.
Human based policies what they mean is that every human should get what they need, their
basic needs like food, good water to drink, good air to smell. These are basic human rights that
have to reach everyone around the globe. We need to find policies which will satisfy this need
to all the 7 billion people, not just the US or UK, which contributes to 4.5% or even less to the
global population.

This requires a three - pronged approach

This means that we must find good policies, the government must take good political decisions,
maintain and curb usage of resources. This can happen only when political issues are sorted
out. Also, the usage, the present reserve, the air and soil, the spaceship of Earth has to be
considered and that has to be taken care of along with other policies that is being made. So, it
has to go, hand in hand with the reserves we have and the policies that we are going to make.

We cannot simply rely on technological innovation (the "bigger pie") and demographic
transition ( "fewer forks") to eliminate or solve the population problem.
It is not just depending on this or that but we also need to take other initiatives, like we need to
educate women on sexual and social education to every part of the country, to every person in
order for them to understand the importance and need for understanding political issues and
preserving the resources we have. So, we need to educate everyone to know and understand
this global problem and what’s the big deal about this. So, do we need to, increase the
population every day by 4.5 million, we need to educate everyone to help them understand
that this type of a situation is prevalent.

We have existing methods that have proven to be effective sustainable development tools.

They are development tools which are empowering women, which is being used in some of the
villages in Africa and India as well, to teach women with skills that aid in the development of
resources, thereby, causing a women to be more independent and a person who can do well
for herself. It is one of the aspect to reduce the depletion of resources. Hence, the rise in Self
Help Groups across the country.

We also have new tools and better models that can be used to develop tools

There are some of the tools which have been developed by the Massachusetts institute of
technology (MIT) in US, which can be used to test, it is a complex model by medicines which is
used to test the holding capacity of the Earth and the available resources we have and how
much it can get to everyone and how self-sustaining it is. These are references that you can find
in the book, 'The limit of growth', published by MIT as well.