The Theory of Interest - Solutions Manual

Chapter 12
1
n
1. E [ a 1 ( n )] = E (1 + it )
t =1

= E [1 + it ]

t =1

from independence

= (1 + i ) .
1
n t
2. E an = E (1 + is )
t =1 s =1

= E [1 + is ]

t =1 s =1
n

from independence

= (1 + i ) = an i .
t

t =1

3. (a) Year 1: 8% given.

Year 2: .5 (.07 + .09 ) = .08, or 8%.
Year 3: .25 [.06 + 2 (.08 ) + .10] = .08, or 8%.

(b) Year 1: = 0, no variance.

2
2
Year 2: 2 = .5 (.07 .08 ) + (.09 .08 ) = .0001

= .0001 = .01.
2
2
2
Year 3: 2 = .25 (.06 .08 ) + 2 (.08 .08 ) + (.10 .08 )
= .0002

= .0002 = .01 2
(c) 1000 (1.08 )(1.09 )(1.10 ) = $1294.92.
(d) 1000 (1.08 )(1.07 )(1.06 ) = $1224.94.
(e) 1000 (1.08 ) = $1259.71.
3

(f) .25 (1000 ) [(1.08 )(1.09 )(1.10 ) + (1.08 )(1.09 )(1.08 )

+ (1.08 )(1.07 )(1.08 ) + (1.08 )(1.07 )(1.06 )]

= .25 [1294.92 + 1271.38 + 1248.05 + 1224.94]
= $1259.82

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The Theory of Interest

Chapter 12

2
2
(g) 2 = .25 (1294.92 1259.82 ) + (1271.38 1259.82 )
2
2
+ (1248.05 1259.82 ) + (1224.94 1259.82 )
= 2720.79

= 2720.79 = 52.16.
1
1
4. (a) E (1 + it ) =
.09 .07

1
dt
.07 1 + t

.09

.09

ln (1 + t ) = .925952.
.09 .07
.07

Then set (1 + i ) = .925952 and solve i = .07997.

1

(b) We have a 1 ( 3) = (1.07997 ) = .79390.

1
2
(c) E (1 + it ) =
.09 .07

.09

.07

(1 + t )2

dt

1
1
=

= .857412.
.09 .07 1 + t .07
.09

Then set (1 + k ) = .857412 and solve k = .16630.

1

(d) Applying formula (12.10), we have

Var [ a 1 ( 3)] = (.857412 ) (.925952 ) = .0000549
3

and the standard deviation is

.0000549 = .00735.

5. (b) Applying formula (12.11), we have

E a3 = a3 i = a3 .07997 = 2.5772.
(d) Applying formula (12.14), we have
m2a + m1a
2m2a
2
a

a ( a3 i )
a
a 3 k
a
a 3 i
m2 m1
m2 m1
( 2 ) (.857412 )
.857412 + .925952
( 2.2229 )
( 2.5772 ) ( 2.5772 )2
=
.857412 .925952
.857412 .925952
= .005444

Var a3 =

and the standard deviation is

.005444 = .0735.

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The Theory of Interest

Chapter 12
( )

6. The random variable it 2 / 2 will be normal with = 3% and = .25%.

(a) Applying formula (12.1), we have
E [100a ( 4 )] = 100 (1.03) = 112.55.
4

Applying formula (12.3), we have

4
8
Var 100a4 = 10, 000 (1 + 2 i + i 2 + s 2 ) (1 + i )
4
2
8
= 10, 000 {1 + ( 2 ) (.03) + (.03) + .0025} (1.03)

= 119.828
and the standard deviation is 119.828 = 10.95 .
(b) Applying formula (12.5), we have
E 100
s4 = 100
s4 .03 = 430.91.
Applying formula (12.8), we have
m1s = 1.03
m2s = 1 + 2 (.03) + (.03) + .0025 = 1.0634
2

and

( )(
)
1.0634 + 1.03
( 4.67549 ) 2 1.0634 ( 4.3091) ( 4.3091)2
Var [100
s4 ] = 10, 000
1.0634 1.03
1.0634 1.03

= 944.929
944.929 = 30.74.

and the standard deviation is

sn +1 1 = 
sn +1 i 1.
7. (a) E sn = E 
sn +1 1 = Var 
sn +1 .
(b) Var sn = Var 
(c) E an = E 1 + an 1 = 1 + an 1 i .
(d) Var an = Var 1 + an 1 = Var an 1 .
8. We know that 1 + i is lognormal with = .06 and 2 = .01. From the solution to
Example 12.3(1), we have i = .067159 and then

s 2 = e 2 + ( e 1) = e 2 .06 +.01 ( e.01 1)

2

= e.13 ( e.01 1) = .011445.

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The Theory of Interest

Chapter 12

We then apply formula (12.4a) to obtain

Var [ a ( n )] = (1 + 2 i + i 2 + s 2 ) (1 + i )
n

2n
5

= 1 + 2 (.067159 ) + (.067159 ) + .011445 (1.067159 )

2

10

= .09821
and the standard deviation = .09821 = .3134 agreeing with the other approach.
9. (a) Formula (12.5) with i = e + 2 1.
2

(b) Formulas (12.6), (12.7) and (12.8) with j = e 2 + 2 .

(c) Formula (12.11) with i = e 2 1.
2

(d) Formulas (12.12), (12.13) and (12.14) with k = e 2 + 2 .

2

10. (a) E [1 + it ] = e.06+.0001/ 2 = 1.06189

mean = E [ a (10 )] = (1.06189 ) = 1.823.
10

Var [ a (10 )] = e 2

( )(10 )(.06 ) + (10 )(.0001)

( e(10)(.0001) 1)

= e1.201 ( e.001 1) = .003325

and s.d. = .003325 = .058 .
(b) Mean = E 
s10 = 
s10 .06189 = 14.121
s.d. using formula (12.8) = .297.
1
(c) E (1 + it ) = e .06+.0001/ 2 = .941812
10
mean = E [ a 1 (10 )] = (.941812 ) = .549

Var [ a 1 (10 )] = e 1.2+.001 ( e.001 1) = .000302

and s.d. = .000302 = .017 .
(d) We have (1 + i ) = .941812 or i = .06178
1

and (1 + k ) = e .12+.0001e.0001 = e.1198

1

= .887098 or k = .12727.
Mean = E a10 = a10 .06178 = 7.298.
s.d. using formula (12.14) = .134.

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The Theory of Interest

Chapter 12

11. E [1 + it ] = e + 2 = 1.067.
2

Var [1 + it ] = e 2 + ( e 1) = .011445.
2

Solving two equations in two unknowns gives

= .06 2 = .01
Therefore [t ] follows a normal distribution with mean = .06 and var = .01.
12. E [1 + it ] = 1.08 = e + 2 = e +.0001/ 2 so that = .07691.
2

2
Var [1 + it ] = e 2 + ( e 1) = (1.08 ) ( e.0001 1) = .00011665.
2

E [ a ( 3)] = (1.08 ) = 1.25971.

3

2
6
Var [ a ( 3)] = 1 + 2 (.08 ) + (.08 ) + .00011665 (1.08 )
3

= .0004762 and s.d. = .0004762 = .02182.

The 95% confidence interval is
1.25971 1.96 (.02182 ) or (1.21693,1.30247 ) .
13. E s3 = E 
s4 1 = 
s4 .08 1 = s3 .08 = 3.246 = mean.
Var s3 = Var 
s4 1 = Var 
s4 .
Var = 65.62 using formula (12.8).

.07 + .09
= .08 = .
2
(.09 .07 )2 .0001
Var ln (1 + it ) =
=
= 2.
2
3
1
E [ ln a ( 30 )] = 30 = 30 (.08 ) = 2.4.

14. E ln (1 + it ) =

.0001
Var [ ln a 1 ( 30 )] = 30 2 = 30
= .001.
3
The 95th percentile of ln a 1 ( 30 ) is
2.4 + 1.645 .001 = 2.34798.
Thus, 100, 000e 2.34798 = $9556.20.

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The Theory of Interest

Chapter 12

15. Continuing Example 12.7:

[6] = .08 + .6 (.091 .08 ) + .2 (.095 .08 ) = .0896

[7] = .08 + .6 (.0896 .08 ) + .2 (.091 .08 ) = .0880
[8] = .08 + .6 (.0880 .08 ) + .2 (.0896 .08 ) = .0867.
16. (a) Formula (12.33)
1 k2
2
Var [t ] =

1 + k2 (1 k2 )2 k12
=

2
1 k1

if k2 = 0

which is formula (12.30) with k1 = k .

(b) Formula (12.34)
Cov [ s ] , [t ] = Var [t ] g1t s + (1 ) g 2t s .
We set k2 = 0, so that

=1

g1 = k1

g2 = 0

from formula (12.35). We also substitute the result from part (a).

k t s
Thus, Cov [ s ] , [t ] =
2 1
1 k
1

which is formula (12.31) with k1 = k .

17. Use formula (12.33) with k1 = .6 and k2 = .2 . Find the empirical estimate for
Var [t ] based upon the sample data for [t ] given in Example 12.6. This will result
in one equation in one unknown that can be solved for 2 .
18. (a) Applying formula (12.33)
1 k2
2
Var [t ] =

1 + k2 (1 k2 )2 k12
=

1 .2
.0002

= .0004762.
1 + .2 (1 .2 )2 (.6 )2

(b) Applying formulas (12.34), (12.35) and (12.36) with k1 = .6 and k2 = .2 and with
t s = 2 gives the answer .0001300.

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The Theory of Interest

Chapter 12

19. (a) Applying formula (12.29) twice, we have

.096 = + k (.100 )
.100 = + k (.105 ) .
Solving these two equations in two unknowns, we have
k = .08 and = .08 .

Therefore

[E4] = .08 + .8 (.095 .08 ) = .092.

(b) Applying formula (12.31), we have

Cov [ s ] , [t ] =

2
1 k2

k t s = (.0001)(.8 )

6 3

= .0000512.

20. There are 9 paths each with probability 1/9:

.06 / .02 / .02 .04k
.06 / .02 / .06 .04k
.06 / .02 / .10 .04k

.06 / .06 / .02

.06 / .06 / .06
.06 / .06 / .10

.06 / .10 / .02 + .04k

.06 / .10 / .06 + .04k
.06 / .10 / .10 + .04k

1
[(1.02 )(1.02 .04k ) + (1.02 )(1.06 .04k ) + 7 more terms]
9
1
2
= (1.02 )(1.06 .04k ) + (1.06 ) + (1.10 )(1.06 .04k )
3
1
2
= (1.06 ) + (.0032 ) k .
3

(a) E [ a ( 2 )] =

1
2
2
2
2
2
(b) E a ( 2 ) = (1.02 ) (1.02 .04k ) + (1.02 ) (1.06 .04k ) + 7 more terms
9
(1.10 )2 (1.02 )2
1
2
2
2

(
)
(
)
(
)
(.08 )(1.06 ) k
= 1.02 + 1.06 + 1.10 +
9
3

(1.10 )2 + (1.02 )2
(.0016 ) k 2
+
3

1
= (11.383876 + .04314624k + .01080192k 2 )
9
and
2
2
Var [ a ( 2 )] = E a ( 2 ) E [ a ( 2 )]
1
= (.02158336 + .02157312k + .01079168k 2 ) .
9

147

The Theory of Interest

Chapter 12

21. At time t = 2 :

(.5 )(1000 ) + (.5 )(1000 )

= 874.126
1.144
(.5 )(1000 ) + (.5 )(1000 )
i = .10
V=
= 909.091
1.1
(.5 )(1000 ) + (.5 )(1000 )
i = .06944 V =
= 935.069
1.06944
i = .144

V=

At time t = 1:

(.5 )( 874.126 ) + (.5 )( 909.091)

= 796.079
1.12
(.5 )( 909.091) + (.5 )( 935.069 )
i = .08333 V =
= 851.153
1.08333
i = .12

V=

At time t = 0 :
i = .10 V =

(.5 )( 796.079 ) + (.5 )( 851.153)

= 748.74
1.1

obtaining the same answer as obtained with the other method.

22. (a)

Path
10/11/12
10/11/10
10/9/10
10/9/8

Probability
.25
.25
.25
.25

PV
.73125
.74455
.75821
.77225

PV2
.53473
.55435
.57488
.59637

Value of the bond is

1000 (.25 ) [.73125 + .74455 + .75821 + .77225] = 751.57.
(b) Var = (1000 ) (.25 ) [.53473 + .55435 + .57488 + .59637 ]
= 232.5664
2

and the s.d. = 232.5664 = 15.25 .

3

(c) The mean interest rate is i = .10 so the value is 1000 (1.1) = 751.31.
23. (a) At time t = 1 :
2
( )

i 2 = .10
( )

i 2 = .08

(.3)(1045 ) + (.7 )(1045 )

= 995.238
1.05
(.3)(1045 ) + (.7 )(1045 )
V=
= 1004.808.
1.04
V=

148

The Theory of Interest

Chapter 12

At time t = 0 :

(.3)( 995.238 + 45 ) + (.7 )(1004.808 + 45 )

1.045
= $1001.85.

( )

i 2 = .09 V =

(b) The equation of value is

1001.854 = 45v + 1045v 2
and solving the quadratic v = .95789. Then we have v = .95789 = e .5 and
= .0861, or 8.61%.

24. If the interest rate moves down, then call the bond, which gives
V=

(.3)( 995.238 + 45 ) + (.7 )(1000 + 45 )

= $998.63.
1.045

25. At time t = 1 2 :

(.4 )(1038 /1.03458 ) + (.6 )(1038 /1.024 )

= 981.273
1.0288
(.4 )(1038 /1.024 ) + (.6 )(1038 /1.01667 )
j = .02
V=
= 998.095
1.02
(.4 )(1038 /1.01667 ) + (.6 )(1038 /1.011575 )
j = .01389 V =
= 1010.036
1.01389
j = .0288

V=

At time t = 1 4 :

(.4 )( 981.273 + 38 ) + (.6 )( 998.095 + 38 )

= 1005.24
1.024
(.4 )( 998.095 + 38 ) + (.6 )(1010.036 + 38 )
j = .01667 V =
= 1026.1536.
1.01667
j = .024

V=

At time t = 0 :
j = .02 V =

(.4 )(1005.24 ) + (.6 )(1026.1536 )

= $997.83.
1.02

26.
Path
Probability
10/12/14.4
.16
10/12/10
.24
10/8.333/10
.24
10/8.333/6.944
.36

PV
.7095
.7379
.7629
.7847
149

CV
1.4094
1.3552
1.3108
1.2744

CV from time 1
1.28128
1.23200
1.19170
1.15860

The Theory of Interest

Chapter 12

(a) E [ a ( 3)] = (.16 )(1.4094 ) + (.24 )(1.3552 ) + (.24 )(1.3108 ) + (.36 )(1.2744 ) = 1.326.
(b) E [ a 1 ( 3)] = .749 .
(c) E [ a ( 3)] = E [ a 1 ( 3)] + E [ a 1 ( 2 )] + E [ a 1 (1)]
1
1
1
1
1
= .749 + (.4 )(1.12 ) (1.1) + (.6 )(1.08333) (1.1) + (1.1)

= 2.486.
(d) E 
s3 = 1.326 + 1.2038 + 1.096 = 3.626.
27. Rendleman Bartter:
mean

E [ t ] = E [ t 0 + 0 ] = E [ 0 ] + E [ 0 ]
= a 0t + 0 = 0 (1 + at )

variance
Var [ t ] = a 2 2t
Vasicek:
mean
E [ t ] = E [ 0 ] + E [ 0 ]
= c ( b 0 ) + 0 = cb + (1 c ) 0
variance
Var [ t ] = 2t
Cox Ingersoll Ross:
mean
E [ t ] = cb + (1 c ) 0

variance
Var [ t ] = 2 0t , since the process error is proportional to
squares in computing variances.
28. (a) We have

d = c ( b ) dt + dz
= 0 + dz if c = 0
= adt + dz where a = 0

which is the process for a random walk.

150

which

The Theory of Interest

Chapter 12

(b) We have
d = c ( b ) dt + dz
= ( b ) dt + dz if c = 1
which is the process for a normal distribution with = b.

29. For the random walk model

= at + z

and for the Rendleman-Bartter model

= at + z
Random walk
0 = .06

.5 = .0675
1 = .065
1.5 = .063
2 = .0685

Rendleman - Bartter
0 = .06
.5 = .06045
.5 = (.0075 )(.06 )
1 = ( .0025 )(.06045 ) 1 = .06030

.5 = .0075
1 = .0025
1.5 = .0020
2 = .0055

1.5 = ( .002 )(.06030 )

2 = (.0055 )(.06018 )

1.5 = .06018
2 = .06051

30. (a) We have 0 = .08

E [ .5 ] = 0 + at = .08 + (.006 )(.5 ) = .083

and
(

P = 39e .08

)(.5)

+ 1039e .08

)( .5) (.083)(.5)

= $995.15.

(b) We have
995.151 = 39v + 1039v 2
and solving the quadratic
( )

( )

i 2 / 2 = .0606 so that i 2 = .1212.

(c) We have

.5 = .08 + .006 (.5 ) + (.01)(.5 ) .5 = .08654

and
(

P = 39e .08

)(.5 )

+ 1039e .08

)(.5) (.08654 )(.5)

151

= $993.46.

The Theory of Interest

Chapter 12

31. Rework Examples 12.11-12.14 using 2 standard deviations. The following results
are obtained:
Random walk

Max
.25 = .0790
.50 = .0880
.75 = .0970
1 = .106

Min
.25 = .0590
.50 = .0480
.75 = .0370
1 = .026

Rendleman Bartter

Max
.25 = .0790
.50 = .0892
.75 = .1007
1 = .114

Min
.25 = .0590
.50 = .0497
.75 = .0419
1 = .035

Vasicek

Max
.25 = .0790
.50 = .0876
.75 = .0957
1 = .103

Min
.25 = .0590
.50 = .0486
.75 = .0386
1 = .029

Cox-Ingersoll-Ross

Max
.25 = .0790
.50 = .0923
.75 = .1017
1 = .111

Min
.25 = .0590
.50 = .0494
.75 = .0410
1 = .034

10
32. (a) (.08 )(1.1) = .2075, or 20.75%.
10
(b) (.08 )(.9 ) = .0279, or 2.79%.
5
5
(c) (.08 )(1.1) (.9 ) = .0761, or 7.61%.
(d) A 10% increase followed by a 10% decrease results in a result that is
(1.1)(.9 ) = 99% of the starting value.
10
10
(e) (.5 ) = .2461 using the binomial distribution.
5

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The Theory of Interest

Chapter 12

(f) 10 increases (.08 )(1.1) = .2075

9
9 increases (.08 )(1.1) (.9 ) = .1698
10

10 10
10
10
Probability = + (.5 ) = 11(.5 ) = .0107.
10 9
33. One year spot rates s1 :
i0 = .070000
( )

i1 = .070000e1.65 .1 = .082558
( )

i2 = .082558e .26 .1 = .080439

( )

i3 = .080439e .73 .1 = .086530

( )

i4 = .086530e1.17 .1 = .097270
( )

i5 = .097270e .98 .1 = .1073, or 10.73%.

Five year spot rates s5 :
i0 = .080000
(

i1 = .080000e1.65 .05 = .086880

i2 = .086880e .26 .05 = .085758
i3 = .085758e .73 .05 = .088946
i4 = .088946e1.17 .05 = .094304
i5 = .094304e

.98(.05)

= .0990, or 9.90%.

The yield curve became invested, since 10.73% > 9.90%.

153