Summarized Notes of AFM-ACCA
Summarized Notes of AFM-ACCA
IRR
-It is a cost of capital that gives NPV zero
Usefulness
● IRR is very useful for people having limited financial management knowledge
Weakness
● IRR works on reinvestment assumption and it assumes that cash flows will be
reinvested in the same project at IRR.
● IRR cannot be used in case of mutually exclusive projects.
● In case of non conventional cash flows which means there will be multiple IRR and is
therefore not useful
● IRR has a scaling problem,e.g NPV would be rising,investment would be high but
IRR low,hence scaling problem.
IRR=a+[A/A-B] x (b-a)
MIRR
-It is a cost of capital that gives NPV zero
-If MIRR>cost of capital, then opt for the project.
Usefulness
● MIRR and NPV both assume that cash flows are being reinvested in the same
project at cost of capital.
● MIRR does not have a scaling problem.
● MIRR and NPV can be used in case of mutually exclusive projects
● In case of non standard pattern of future free cash flows there will be only one MIRR
Weakness
● Defining investment phase and return phase is problematic
● In non standard pattern future free cash flows we have to modify the MIRR
Capital rationing
● It is when a company is lacking funds.Ideally a company must undertake all projects
with positive net present value, but at times due to capital rationing a company may
not be able to do so.
● There are two types of capital rationing
Soft capital rationing:
-Lack of funds due to internal policies of the organisation
-Reasons: putting a limit on the capital budget or project should only be financed
through retained earnings.
- Management wants to avoid dilution of control by issuing new shares
-Management may be unwilling to issue additional capital if it will lead to a dilution of
earnings per share.
Hard capital rationing
-Lack of funds due to external reasons
-Costs associated with making small issues of capital may be too great
-For e.g financial crunch in the market or weak lending power of the banks or poor
credit rating.
CIMS:
Reasons
● It monitors how an investment project is progressing once the system has been
implemented.
● It considers the possibility of both internal and external risks,which may affect the
project.
● The system will set a plan on how the project should proceed.
● It then ensures that the project is progressing according to the plan and budget.
● It also sets up contingency plans for dealing with the identified risks.
Benefits:
● It ensures that the project is completed on time.
● It acts as a communication device between managers managing the project and
the monitoring team
● CIMS identifies risk, so that department will be proactive towards it rather than
reactive which can help them reduce costs.
● The buyer may have limited potential for growth prior to acquisition,however after
acquisition it may grow quickly
● In case of acquiring a business of the same line of activity as the buyer itself trades
in,the competition of that industry will get relaxed.
● After acquisition, a bigger group of companies will come out which will help them in
obtaining finance easily.
● The top management of both companies can be combined and a new team can be
created leading to success resulting in gaining a competitive advantage.
● When two firms merge,it will result in bulk purchases which will lead to economies of
scale, hence resulting in cost saving
● The acquirer company can strip the assets of the acquired company which will
improve the cash flow position of the combined company.
● Aims and objectives of acquirer: This criteria talks about the long term goals of
acquirer company ,whether they want to expand in a new product range or they want
to go deep in their existing product range market
● Tax saving: The target company may have excess carried forward losses and the
acquirer may be interested in acquiring such companies as this will result in tax
savings.
● Access to better technology: The acquirer may want to acquire the target company
which has better access to technology, which will result in significant advancement
for the acquirer.
● Opportunity and availability: An opportunity to acquire a particular company may
arise,and the acquiring company might decide to take the opportunity while it is
available.
● Debt: One of the sources of finance is debt. Debt is a cheaper source of finance but
knowing that a cheaper source does not mean that it is the best one. When you raise
funds through debt you will have to pay interest which will result in tax savings.Debt
finance sends positive signal to the stock exchange. However, raising funds through
debt finance will result in change in capital structure i.e debt to equity ratio. Also it will
result in change in weighted average cost of capital of combined and therefore
change in value of combined company.
● Equity: Equity is an expensive source of finance but note that an expensive source
does not mean that it is not the best one. Raising funds through equity sends a
negative signal to the stock exchange and this source of finance will also dilute the
current shareholders holding. This method will also change the post acquisition
gearing of the company,which will result in change in weighted average cost of
capital and change in value of combined companies value.
Assumptions of BSOP:
● It assumes that the market is perfect i.e. BOD and shareholders have the same
information.
● BSOP assumes that risk free rate is constant ,however it may not be the case if
options expiry is long
● BSOP assumes volatility stays constant throughout life of project, however it may not
be the case in long term
● BSOP gives predictive values not conclusive values.
● BSOP assumes that company will not pay any dividend till the expiry of options
● BSOP assumes that real options are contractual agreements which have to be
fulfilled.
● BSOP is assumed to find out value of European style options not the value of real
options
The Greeks:
● Gamma(Change in Pa)= A high Gamma value indicates that the delta value is quite
volatile. Due to this it is hard to maintain a delta hedge , since the volatile delta value
will be constantly changing. Therefore,Gamma is a measure of how easy risk
management will be.
● Rho(risk free rate of return)= Rho measures the sensitivity of the option value to
changes in risk free rate of return. A high Rho value will have a positive impact on the
call option, but will have a negative impact on the put option. Also longer term options
will have a larger Rho value than short term options because the more time there is
to expiry of options the more significant is the change in risk free rate.
● Vega(Volatility)= It measures the change in option value caused by 1% change in
volatility. It measures the consequences of an incorrect estimation of volatility. Longer
term options have a higher vega value than short term options because the more
time there is to expiry of options the more significant is the change in volatility.
● Theta(Time)=Theta measures how much value is lost over time.An option price has
two components ,intrinsic value and time value.However when option expires, time
value becomes zero.
VaR(Value at risk)
● VaR is a certain confidence level that loss won't exceed a certain amount,
maximum confidence which VaR can give is 99%
● VaR= Standard deviation x confidence level value x SQRT(t)
● E.g if VaR for annual basis and standard deviation is monthly then it will be
SQRT(12)
● If VaR over 5 years(project life) and standard deviation is annual then
SQRT(5)
● Confidence level 95 value= 1.645 99 value = 2.33
E.g:
$m Project: U V W X Y Z
PV of expected inflows 50 50 50 50 50 50
NPV 5 3 -3 -4 -6 -6
● Traditional NPV is usually calculated using pre-planned figures which are budgeted
by the management according to their expertise and knowledge.
● Although it is believed that traditional NPV is superior amongst all other investment
appraisal techniques,the problem with traditional NPV is that it does not incorporate
sudden changes which may affect the budgeted position of the company.
● This weakness stated above is countered by the introduction of real options,which
will convert traditional NPV into strategic NPV and that can be called a superior
method amongst other investment appraisal techniques.
Project V W Y Z
Delay 3 1 3 2
period(yrs)
Traditional 3 -3 -6 -6
NPV
● In the above table we have calculated the strategic NPV using the real option to
delay,to see the strategic value of projects V,W,Y,Z. Just randomly looking at the
table we can see that the strategic NPV will be greater than the traditional NPV of
8m.
Project V:
● This project looks very promising. It already had a positive traditional NPV and with
the incorporation of real options, the strategic NPV has gone up to $15.2m.
● It can be interpreted that opting project V right now will not give a good enough value
compared to opting Project V in a time period of 3 years in which it will give a
promising value.
● In short, project V can increase shareholders value if opted today but it will give a
further increase in shareholders wealth if opted in 3 years.
● However, real options are also estimates , it is possible that in a time span of 3 years
the company may not be able to opt project V due to competitors action or it might
not be attractive in 3 years time
Project W
● This project does not look promising at all. It has a negative traditional NPV, and
even with incorporation of real options its strategic NPV is also negative.
● Project W has a low volatility,which means that in a delay period of 1 year the
chances of cash flow changes are only 0.1. That's why this project does not have a
very high option value.
● This project is not worth exercising at all, opting now or with a real option to delay will
not increase shareholders wealth.
Project Y:
● Despite having a negative traditional NPV of -6m this project provides a positive
strategic NPV of 5m. This is because the real option to delay is 3 years and the
volatility is high which also explains the reason for a positive strategic value.
● Opting this project right now would not be beneficial for shareholders wealth, but
opting this project in a time span of 3 years will increase shareholders wealth.
Project Z:
● This project is similar to Project Y but is less promising. It currently has the same
negative traditional NPV as project Y, but with a lower volatility and delay period and
hence, lower option value.
● This project seems unworthy to be opted,but it is safe to assume that it will not
always be unworthy. It is true that even after a delay of two years this project would
not be worth it but giving it some more time may turn out to be beneficial to
shareholders. But it is certainly useful if shareholders are willing to invest in a long
term project.
FOREX
Hedging techniques:
1) Netting: We match the transactions in the same currency and time period, and net
off, the conclusive amount will be hedged. We do not hedge matching transactions
separately as this will increase hedging cost.
2) Forward Exchange Contract: Banks offer Forward rate and once accepted it will be
a binding agreement. It is a derivative.
3) Money Market Hedge: It is a non derivative technique.
a) MMH (Payments)
Step 1: Amount to be deposited = e.g $1000/1+i%xn/12=900
i%= foreign currency deposit rate.
Step 2: Amount to be borrowed = 900/ or x according to spot buying rate=500
Step 3: Interest payment= 600 x i% xn/12= 12
b) MMH (Receipts)
Step 1: Amount to be borrowed= e.g $1000/ 1+i%xn/12=980
5) Multilateral Netting:
● Step 1: All transactions should be translated to Principal Co.’s currency(usually
parent company). Transactions can be payments or receipts
● Step 2: We will perform netting.
-All transactions whether payments or receipts will be converted to Principal currency
using Mid market rate= (Spot buying rate + Spot selling rate)/2
-A huge amount is netted off amongst itself due to multilateral netting.
-This arrangement also saves hedging costs.
-One drawback of multilateral netting is that some of the governments may not allow
this and some may allow this. Those who do not allow it focus on mainly increasing
banks revenue, while those who do allow this focus on bringing new businesses in
the economy.
Net receipts xx
Net payments xx
8) Interest rate futures:
Step 5: To calculate future close out price (BY BOTH WAYS ONLY IF MENTIONED
OTHERWISE GO WITH THE ONE WHERE THERE WILL BE RISK)
When LIBOR INC. BY 5% When LIBOR DEC BY 5%
Spot price Spot price
100-LIBOR+5% 100-LIBOR-5%
L: Unused basis L: Unused basis
From above From above
Future price Future price
9) Interest options:
ALtd BLtd
Actual B.C -fixed rate -Floating rate
Altd pays Bltd -Floating rate +Floating rate
Bltd pays Altd
(Fixed-benefit) rem fixed rate -remaining fixed rate
B.C before bank fee Libor + means additional pay
And minus means less pay
L: Bank fee (xx) (xx)
Overall B.C XX XX
● FRA Article:
1 3.5% -
2 4.6% 5.71%
3 5.4% 7.02%
4 6.1% 8.23%
5 6.3% 7.1%
Step 2:
After this, Fixed interest company will pay bank
(3m-R) X 1.035^-1+ (5.21m-R) X 1.046^-2+(6.52m-R) X1.054^-3+(7.53m-R)
X1.061^-4+(6.6m-R) X 1.063^-5=0
After solving this you get
5.68m=R
Then 5.68/amount of borrow(100) x 100= 5.68%
Advantages:
● Exchange traded options are easily available, because it is a standardised
product available in a standardised market, which is not the case in OTC
options.
● Greater transparency and tighter regulations make exchange traded options
less risky
● Exchange traded options transaction costs are lower.
● The exchange traded option buyer can close the option before expiry,
because they are available in the standardised market, this is not the case in
OTC options since it is custom made, it will be hard to find people willing to
buy an OTC option.
Disadvantages:
● The maturity date and contract sizes for exchange traded options are fixed,whereas
OTC options can be tailored according to the requirement of the party.
● Exchange traded options tend to be short term, so if longer term options are needed,
it would be available in the OTC market.
● A wide range of products are available in the OTC options market, which may not be
the case in standardised markets.
Advantages:
● It is ideal for companies investing abroad, because it will involve payment of interest
in the currency in which country will receive income abroad.
● This method of currency swap is cheaper than other hedging instruments.
● Excluding credit risk premium, the company will hedge its full amount using currency
swap which is not the case in other hedging instruments.
Disadvantage:
● The counterparty may default, although companies may get banks to guarantee for
counterparty
● In forward contracts there is no upfront premium payment, which is not the case in
OTC options as there will be a non refundable premium payment in OTC options
● Forward contract gives us guaranteed net payable or receivable at the end of
hedging, but in case of OTC options it will only show net payable or receivable if
option is exercised.
● Forward contract is a binding agreement which means it will have to be fulfilled.
However OTC options give us the right to buy or sell which means it can be lapsed if
it is not beneficial.
Advantages
● Swaps are usually facilitated by banks that make it an OTC product which means
they can be arranged in any size and for whatever time period it is required.
● Transaction costs in interest rate swap are often lower than other interest rate
hedging techniques.
● In case of swapping a floating rate of interest with fixed rate of interest, it will help the
company in budgeting finance costs
Disadvantages:
● In case, a company swaps into fixed rate commitment they will have to fulfil the
commitment which means they cannot enjoy favourable movements in interest rate
changes.
● In case of interest rate swap, bank fees will also have to be paid.
● In case the interest rate swap is not facilitated by the bank, there is a risk that
counterparty may default. If banks facilitate the interest rate swap, then the bank
takes the guarantee that both parties will honour the agreement
Reverse takeovers:
–An RTO involves a smaller quoted company taking over a larger unquoted company by
a share for share exchange.
–In order to acquire the larger unquoted company a large no. of shares in the quoted
company will have to be issued to the shareholders of the larger unquoted company.
–Hence, after the takeover the current shareholders in the larger unquoted company will
hold majority of the shares in the quoted company and will therefore have control of the
quoted company.
In case of repayment, tranche 3 will be paid first followed by tranche 2 and tranche 1 will be
paid in the end.
- Loan Note A
- Loan Note B
- Total cost
- Uske baad Total Return- Total Cost jou ayega wo equity tranche kelye return hay
Bond valuation:
2) Pattern= This policy suggests that the company should be consistent with dividend
payments. In this we treat our shareholders as debt holders which means we pay
fixed dividends and maintain the same payout ratio. Due to its
consistency,shareholders prefer this method.
3) Irrelevancy(M&M)= This policy suggests that dividends are irrelevant. It believes that
payment or non-payment of dividend will keep the shareholders indifferent because
they believe companies should retain the money for reinvestment.By investing in
positive NPV projects, share price will increase and so shareholders can sell their
shares and enjoy the benefit of increase in share price, This is also called Dividend
manufacturing.
1) Investors
Now we have to talk about what are rational decisions and how do behavioural
factors affect those rational decisions
a) Maximisation of utility:
Investors aim to maximise long term wealth and their utility.
Behavioural factors that may influence that may not be best in achieving
maximisation of wealth:
-Investors want to maximise long term wealth but only wants to invest in companies
with social responsibility
-Investors want to maximise long term wealth but prefers to avoid those companies
who are operating in industries which they regard as unethical(sin stocks)
-Some investors hold on to shares with prices that have fallen overtime and are
unlikely to recover. They do this because it will psychologically hurt them to admit
that their decision to invest was wrong. This is known as cognitive dissonance.
2) Finance Managers:
a) Maximisation of utility
A finance manager will want to maximise the shareholders wealth in long term
How will this rational decision be affected by behavioural factors?
- Finance manager may want to think about his own success first rather than the
company's overall success. This is known as agency problem
-The finance managers are unwilling to let someone else have what they have been
trying to acquire. This is known as loss aversion bias.
b) Analysis of relevant information:
A finance manager will make a decision based on future prospects about a company
i.e company valuation and so on
How will this rational thinking be affected by behavioural factors?
-A finance manager may pay investors money in a loss making company but has so
much confidence that they can turn the tables of the loss making company into a
profitable company. Due to this sometimes they keep paying more to mitigate the
loss making company’s losses. This is known as entrapment.
c) Rational,objective and risk neutral analysis:
A finance manager will make a decision after an analysis of information currently
present.
Behavioural factors that may influence the decision:
-Finance manager makes a decision according to information that confirms the
managers ideology but ignores evidence that casts doubt on those decisions. This is
known as confirmation bias.
Cross rates:
Islamic finance:
Equity modes:
1) Mudaraba: It is a kind of partnership, where one partner solely invests in the
commercial enterprise while the other partner is responsible for the management of
that commercial enterprise. The one investing is known as Rab ul mal and the one
responsible for the management is known as Mudarib. Profit generated is distributed
according to pre agreed ratios whereas the losses will be borne by the Rab ul mal.
2) Musharaka: It is like a joint venture. Two or more parties contribute capital to the
business and divide profits. All investors are entitled to participate in the
management but are not required to do so. The profit is distributed by partners in pre
agreed ratios and losses are borne strictly on the basis of capital invested.
Introduction:
This report carries out information related to financial acceptability of investment in the
assembly plant in Yilandwe ,assumptions made in evaluating the financial acceptability, risk
and issues which Lmoni company should consider before making the final decision. At the
end a reasoned recommendation will also be provided.
i) Evaluation-
The appendix 1 shows the forecast cash flows of investment in Yilandwe project at a project
specific discount rate of 12%. The NPV is forecasted to be $147342. A positive NPV always
implies that a project should be accepted as it increases shareholders wealth.
ii) Assumptions, Risks and issues-
Assumptions:
One of the assumptions while calculating forecasted cash flows was that:
Working capital at year 0 will be funded externally, any further increase during the four year
project will be funded internally.
Another assumption is that tax rates in Yilandwe over the four year project will remain
constant throughout.
It is also assumed that spot rates used in NPV are forecasted using purchasing power parity.
It is further assumed that the inflation rates in three countries Yilandwe, USA and Europe will
remain the same as they are estimated with no further changes.
Also the project specific cost of capital of 12% is also an assumed figure because there are
many estimates while calculating risk adjusted cost of capital like taking proxy company Beta
Asset and considering it as company’s own Beta asset.
It is assumed that all the estimates of sales revenue, costs, royalty payments, initial
investment,working capital etc are accurate.
Issues:
-Sensitivity analysis= As already stated there are a large number of assumptions. A change
in the value of key variables(sales, variable cost, fixed cost) might have an adverse impact
on NPV. This is why sensitivity analysis should be carried on all key variables before making
a decision
-Real options= While evaluating the financial acceptability, BSOP real options were
completely ignored. It may be highly possible that there may be an option to delay which
might give a strategic NPV of more than what it is now, option to expand, option to early exit,
option to redeploy all might have given a better NPV compared to NPV calculated in
Appendix 1.
Risks: Political, economic, cultural,ethical.
Reasoned recommendation:
The proposal based on above risks ,assumptions, issues and forecasted NPV should be
accepted as a positive NPV always tends to increase shareholders wealth.