WEF Advanced Air Mobility 2024
WEF Advanced Air Mobility 2024
Kearney
Contents
Foreword 3
Executive summary 4
3.1 Healthcare13
Conclusion 16
Contributors 17
Endnotes 20
Disclaimer
This document is published by the
World Economic Forum as a contribution
to a project, insight area or interaction.
The findings, interpretations and
conclusions expressed herein are a result
of a collaborative process facilitated and
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but whose results do not necessarily
represent the views of the World Economic
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Partners or other stakeholders.
Foreword
Sebastian Buckup
Javier González
Head, Network and
Partner, Kearney; Global
Partnerships; Member,
Co-Lead, Kearney Center
Executive Committee, World
for Advanced Mobility, Spain
Economic Forum, Switzerland
We stand at the beginning of a transformative era also outlines different stages in the road towards
in aviation, driven by new possibilities brought by more automation in aviation operations, given that
groundbreaking technologies and a critical need for increased levels of automation will be key in the
sustainability. To support this transformation, the roadmap for financially viable AAM operations. The
World Economic Forum has launched the AVIATE: paper also emphasizes the infrastructure needed to
Advanced Air Mobility initiative. Central to AVIATE is introduce AAM, which is often overlooked in favour
a commitment to the safe, sustainable and equitable of discussions around aircraft certification.
integration of advanced air mobility and autonomous
aviation technologies into the global airspace. It Finally, this paper identifies and elaborates on some
focuses on the nascent sub-sector of advanced use cases of AAM, from passenger transport to
air mobility (AAM), given that this will be the first cargo delivery and medical services, underscoring
one to adopt the new technological advancements how these applications could transform the
in the sky, from automation to electric propulsion approach to mobility and logistics. The insights
systems, and from advanced materials to next-gen presented are the product of extensive discussions
communication systems. with the AVIATE: Advanced Air Mobility community.
The reasons to help enable the nascent sector of Throughout its various phases, AVIATE’s mission
AAM are manifold. First, the societal relevance of is to assist the private and public sectors
AAM in a wide variety of sectors: from the delivery in understanding the complexities of these
of logistics to difficult-to-reach locations, to speedy technological advancements, to identify best
response in healthcare emergencies, from the fight practices that maximize their benefits and minimize
against wildfires to precision agriculture. Second, the unintended risks, and to facilitate the deployment
safety benefits: air travel is already the safest mode of of these technologies globally through the World
transport, yet 80%1 of the existing aviation accidents Economic Forum’s network of independent Centres
are caused by human error. Autonomous technologies for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
can help address this, as well as addressing the
increasing shortage of pilots in more and more To date, the initiative has engaged more than 30
geographies. And third, the economic implications entities in the broader aviation ecosystem, a strong
of AAM: the potential value of AAM will be highly multistakeholder community including constituents
significant by 2030, involving an entire value chain and from the public sector, private sector, civil society
resulting in the creation of numerous new jobs. and research institutions. This collaborative
effort will keep evolving in subsequent phases,
This white paper marks the end of the first phase propelled by the collective aim of achieving a
of the AVIATE: Advanced Air Mobility initiative. more sustainable and innovative aviation sector.
It outlines the main use cases of AAM and the Together, we can redefine the boundaries of what is
key enablers needed to make them a reality. It achievable in the skies and beyond.
Automation in self-contained, functional areas The actions among the key functions of aviation
(e.g. the autopilot, as a combination of steering have been clustered into three main categories:
and navigation) has been considered an industry aviate, navigate and communicate. Each of these
standard in aviation for years. However, it will still main categories will, for the different automation
take time until the industry achieves high levels degrees, have sub-systems that will be manual,
of automation. A clear taxonomy can help – in automatic, automated or autonomous. This can
the automotive sector, there is a well-established vary depending on the phase of the flight (e.g.
taxonomy on the levels of driving automation, but take-off vs. cruising) and the potential hazards (e.g.
an automation taxonomy is yet to be agreed upon weather conditions, traffic and technical failure).
by the aviation ecosystem. The first automation functionalities have a safety-
enhancing goal and evolve into more efficiency-
Figure 1 presents an automation taxonomy improving goals once their safety is guaranteed
for aviation. It is a simplified framework on the – as technical capabilities and public acceptance
distribution of key responsibilities and actions increase further.
between the human and the aircraft. This
taxonomy identifies three key stages: human-in- The role and location of the pilot changes
the-loop, human-on-the-loop and human-over- with increasing automation. For example, in a
the-loop. While the human-in-the-loop still owns remotely supervised or autonomous aircraft,
and performs tasks itself (e.g. controlling and the pilot may be located outside of the aircraft.
communicating), the human-on-the-loop may This will have an impact on public perception.
operate multiple aircraft remotely from the ground. However, an aircraft with the two highest degrees
Towards full automation, the human eventually of automation should never require the pilot (be
moves over-the-loop during the operations, with there a pilot onboard or not) to take control of an
humans only setting the goal of the mission and autonomous aircraft to avert an incident – though
supervising fleets in multi-vehicle operations. they may choose to do so voluntarily.
Increasing automation
Types of automation Manual Low automation Partial automation High automation Autonomy
Workload capacity One aircraft only One or a few aircraft Many aircraft
Controls all functions Controls all functions Main functions are All functions are automated
automated
Some functions can Functions can be instructed, if needed
Aviate
Controls flight plan Manages flight plan Automated system Automated system System determines
follows assigned flight follows assigned flight plan based on
Gets support from
Navigate
Communicates Communicates directly Some clearances and Clearances and System determines
Communicate
directly with ATC* with ATC and others requests from ATC requests from ATC flight plan based on
and others are automated are mainly automated assigned mission with
Some functions are adaptation based on
automated (e.g. Pilot/supervisor Pilot/supervisor real-time information
situational updates) maintains verbal maintains verbal
communication communication Pilot/supervisor can
override decisions
Illustrative examples**
Basic general Consumer drones Modern commercial Remotely-supervised Autonomous air taxi
aviation aircraft jetliners air taxis fleets
Commercial jetliners
First generation First generation Remotely-supervised Autonomous delivery
commercial aircraft eVTOLs*** drones drone fleets
BVLOS****
commercial drones
Note: *ATC: Air traffic control; **These examples aim to simplify understanding by illustrating with familiar aircraft types. The type of automation will depend on the
embedded systems; ***eVTOL: Electric vertical take-off and landing vehicle; ****BVLOS: Beyond visual line of sight
Source: World Economic Forum
Figure 1 can be used as a taxonomy to provide taxonomies. The taxonomy above aims to be
a widely accepted language on the roles and comprehensive for broader stakeholders. Converging
responsibilities of humans and aircraft. It is important on a joint understanding of autonomy will be a key
to note that different research bodies from academia cornerstone for international, unanimous regulation,
and industry are currently working on detailed and its execution across various jurisdictions.
Establishing common ground when discussing AAM is understand the societal impact. The following section
key not only for the industry, but also for governments provides a structured overview of the various, key
to regulate the ecosystem and for the public to AAM use cases and their enabling factors.
2.1
Systematizing AAM use cases
Different lenses can be applied when clustering cases will require a robust business model with
AAM use cases. Figure 2 clusters use cases strict emphasis on cost efficiency and operational
according to three key categories: the nature effectiveness to achieve financial viability, so that
of what is transported (people, goods or other they can outperform alternative modes when
uses), the key stakeholder type driving the measured through unit economics. Public-private
implementation (private or public-private), and driven use cases will rely on government funding for
the geography where the operations take place their financial viability. This public funding would be
(urban, suburban rural or regional). backed by the strong societal impact that the use
case can unlock (e.g. ambulance services).
The first category of use cases, organized by the
nature of what is transported, comprises three main Last, use cases are mapped according to their
clusters: passenger transport, cargo transport and geographical scope. As seen in Figure 2, a single
other services (the final category providing a service use case can have value in various geographical
rather than transporting people or goods from point a contexts. For example, point-to-point shuttles can
to point b). For the development of passenger-related operate in an urban environment for transporting
use cases, social acceptance will be key. As a result, passengers from train stations to sports events, as
it is expected that increased levels of automation well as in regional settings to enhance connectivity
will only be achieved well after 2030. Automation is between remote communities and nearby urban
expected to be taken up more rapidly for the other centres. Depending on the geographic scope,
two categories, which will also rely on autonomous however, some operational considerations differ,
capabilities to be economically attractive. and the associated levels of risk can vary (e.g. the
difference between performing operations in remote
These three clusters can be further split according areas with low population density vs. areas that are
to the interest groups that are key to driving the densely populated – the latter being riskier due to
use-cases’ commercialization into private-driven the larger impact in case of an accident).
and public-private driven. Private-driven use
Geographical areas
Internal logistics
Cargo Public-private
Disaster response (e.g. fire fighting)
transport driven
Medical goods
Agriculture
Surveillance
Other Public-private
Environment monitoring
services driven
Emergencies and disaster prevention
At the moment, dominant aircraft designs for influence the three key enabler categories: social
respective use case clusters have not yet been acceptance, operational feasibility and financial
established and are therefore purposely excluded viability. The next chapter addresses these key
from this white paper. Aircraft design will have enablers for faster and wider adoption of the various
a decisive impact on adoption as it will directly kinds of AAM.
Successful, widespread implementation of AAM Operational feasibility is also critical for the
use cases over the coming years will be driven by implementation of AAM. The technology is maturing
three categories of enablers: social acceptance, sufficiently to soon enable safe, reliable and
operational feasibility and financial viability. Figure recurrent operations, and many operators anticipate
3 outlines the key components of these enabler scaling operations before the decade’s end.
categories. It simplifies the relationships between Regulations must evolve to keep pace to enable
enabling factors and, due to clarity reasons, does not fast and reliable certification of new systems and
illustrate the interdependences among the different to enable the standardization of the ecosystem. To
components. For example, clear understanding of this end, infrastructure will be key – see Box 2 that
the positive social and environmental impact of AAM zooms in on infrastructure needs.
technologies will ensure that both funding and the
necessary regulation – for both the AAM aircraft and Finally, financial viability is essential as it not only
the surrounding infrastructure – are put in place. sustains operations but also attracts the necessary
funds for the substantial initial capital expenditures.
Trust is the first cornerstone of social acceptance, Not only must the sector demonstrate that the
with perceived safety and privacy playing crucial economic model is viable and more effective than
roles. Education and proof of existing capabilities will existing alternatives, it must also prove that there
significantly contribute to this understanding. Beyond is sufficient market depth and that the timeline
establishing trust, achieving social acceptance towards commercialization will not be too long.
will be facilitated by a tangible public benefit. This Funding should ideally come from both public and
includes deploying AAM instead of more polluting private sectors, as both societal and economic
alternatives, and deploying AAM to address current benefits are expected from this technology. This
societal challenges, such as improving healthcare or multistakeholder approach is crucial for the long-
enhancing the inclusivity of remote communities. In term success and integration of these technologies
order to facilitate adoption, the integration must be into mainstream society.
seamless for users, providing an intuitive experience
that is well-connected with existing systems.
Commercial Other
Trust Societal impact Airworthiness Regulation Ecosystem opportunity aspects
Seamless Airspace
integration Unit economics
integration
Sufficient and
diverse funding
BOX 2 The need for more advanced digital and physical infrastructure for AAM
Seamless AAM operations count on having the considering location microweather and
required digital and physical infrastructure in place. obstacle limitation surfaces) and be located
While industry discussions are often focused on to provide extensive coverage. Local planners
aircraft certification, the surrounding ecosystem and real estate developers will become
should not be overlooked. Digital infrastructure, important stakeholders since building and
which includes sophisticated communication aviation standards will need to align to ensure
systems, and physical infrastructure such as successful vertiport developments. The local
strategically located landing sites, are both critical. community is another important stakeholder
Currently, the physical and digital infrastructure is that should be included at the start of the
not adequate to meet the full operational demands deployments since public acceptance will be a
of AAM. The key aspects to consider in creating pre-requisite for successful implementation.
the appropriate infrastructure are as follows.
– Recharging or refuelling: Charging stations
The key physical infrastructure will be vertiports. should ensure seamless operations, since
Vertiports will have three key functions: landing AAM vehicles are mostly electric. Charging
and taking-off, charging, and connecting people stations rely on grid connection, sufficient
and cargo to road, rail and/or sea transport capacity and high charging quality – making
infrastructure. The key stakeholders involved will energy players key stakeholders. Ideally,
be different. Hence, it is relevant to differentiate vertiports offer more than just electric charging
these functions: points and are also equipped to accommodate
alternative energy options such as hydrogen
– Landing and taking off: Landing site locations and biofuel, or battery swapping infrastructure.
must be chosen with a focus on safety (e.g. Thus, vertiports become energy hubs.
Based on the different enabler groups and their Ecosystem stakeholders identify healthcare, logistics
varying importance, some sectors are more for remote areas, and (sub)urban passenger transport
likely to apply AAM for their operations at earlier as the leading AAM use cases, with benefits
stages. Already today we see different “sandbox” manifesting as societal value creation, enhanced
environments, in which use cases with different operational feasibility or high financial viability.
degrees of automation are being tested in a confined
and regulated space, such as those around drone These use cases also show how AAM can impact
medical delivery in Africa9 and digital agriculture in a wide range of industries and geographies. The
India.10 However, so far minimal adoption in the wider following sections provide further insights and
day-to-day context has been achieved. outline key pain points, benefits and needs for
their deployment.
3.1
Healthcare
Healthcare-related use cases, such as take-off and landing vehicle is dedicated to replacing
transportation of patients, lab samples, organs helicopter operations or expanded to replace certain
or medical inventory, are expected to be ground ambulance activities.
commercialized first at a large scale. AAM offers
cheaper, faster and better coverage of medical For every healthcare-related use case, AAM
services, potentially enabling real-time medical operations will have to be thoroughly integrated
supplies and inventory sharing between facilities. into existing medical processes and systems. This
This can reduce the pressure on constrained requires specific training for healthcare staff on the
healthcare capacity for emerging and developed new technology to avoid operational disruptions.
economies. Therefore, these applications receive This will also involve specific regulations for the
substantial public support due to their direct impact healthcare system, including the construction
on healthcare accessibility and efficiency. At the of aviation corridors and dedicated airspace
same time, they make the sector more attractive integration for operators. Additionally, health
for entrepreneurship as technology is demonstrably insurance providers will need to adapt to evaluate
used “for good”. coverage options for these new modes of transport.
However, scalability, required to offset the high Medical use cases are paving the way for most
costs of vehicles, infrastructure, new processes and other AAM sectors benefitting from its positive
training of personnel, remains a significant challenge societal impact. Emerging economies are likely
for related use cases, putting pressure on financial to roll out these applications on a wider scale
viability and posing funding challenges for providers. first (e.g. India)11 as they have a higher proportion
Nevertheless, social benefits can be identified in the of underserved areas (with underdeveloped
short term while economic advantages will likely only infrastructure and medical supply chains).
materialize in the long term. For example, in case Notwithstanding this, developed countries will also
of patient transportation, the economic opportunity benefit, e.g. in cases of natural catastrophes.
varies depending on whether the electrical vertical
For logistics, AAM presents transformative are essential prerequisites to achieve a sustainable
opportunities for both populated areas (e.g. last- business model. Until then, operations will be
mile deliveries) and remote areas (e.g. islands or subsidized by local governments or other interest
offshore platforms). The latter initially offers better groups. In addition to advances in regulations, digital
opportunities with lower risk (and is therefore the infrastructure should be developed on a global
focus) as it allows for faster, more cost-effective and basis with common standards to enable tracking,
more environmentally friendly deliveries without any mapping, and exchange of landing sites and flight
need for new infrastructure such as roads (hub- paths – ideally in a uniform data structure. To
and-spoke-models are often implemented with leverage these data during operations, solid network
flexible outlying points). This improves accessibility connectivity (potentially satellite-based) in remote
for remote communities, connecting them to other areas is a prerequisite.
economies, which can lead to positive economic
momentum. Affiliated missions also carry reduced Logistics for remote areas enables a more
risk; for instance, dangerous destinations do not egalitarian society through better access to more
need to be serviced by a person anymore, while goods “for everyone”. These benefits do not
remote areas generally do not require flying over only apply to emerging economies with limited
densely populated areas. road infrastructure. Developed economies can,
among other benefits, improve the inclusion of
However, regulators need to approve beyond- people with reduced mobility, such as ageing
visual-line-of-sight (BVLOS) and simultaneous populations, or decrease exposure for high-risk
operations for multiple vehicles for this sector to be missions (e.g. offshore platform delivery). Due to the
commercially viable in the long term. As cost savings positive societal impact, there is very limited public
through high-volume operations are unlikely, high opposition to remote logistics AAM use cases.
levels of automation and multi-vehicle operations
Rapid urbanization over the next decades (from the infrastructure, especially in the urban context (e.g.
current average of 55%, to 68% by 2050)12 puts creating landing sites at train stations), where
increasing pressure on existing (sub)urban layouts. building new infrastructure is often not possible due
Experts suggest that AAM can help to counteract to space or permit restrictions. Moreover, building
space constraints and traffic congestion (given the new infrastructure is very capital intensive with
shortage of parking) while contributing to quieter unpredictable returns at present, hindering public
and more pedestrian-friendly city environments. It and private investment in vertiports.
further improves accessibility, travel flexibility and
travel time, but only if integrated properly in existing From a commercial perspective, pilot-onboard
modes of transport. It even increases range into operations will entail appreciable recruiting challenges,
more distant, suburban areas (e.g. as an alternative given both the training required and the implied
to extension of metro lines), enabling passengers to salary cap to keep fares down, especially since
travel further in the same amount of time. However, manufacturing scalability for OEMs (original equipment
it may spark induced demand – the phenomenon manufacturers) remains a challenge at the initial
of people traveling longer distances and more stages. Moreover, high aircraft utilization is needed
often – potentially limiting the benefits of reduced to break even, which necessitates quick turnaround
congestion and a cleaner environment. times and a route network with established demand.
The former requires quick-charging solutions with grid
Currently, public acceptance is a key challenge. The access that can cope during peak times, while the
expected high prices remind potential customers latter is more feasible initially on high-frequency “thick”
of helicopters (“a toy for the rich”) rather than a routes such as airport transfer to city centres. Related
mode of mass transport. This will not change in the physical security procedures are yet to be defined.
short term, but society needs to be educated to The industry seems optimistic about the economic
counteract fears of noise pollution or a darkening opportunity with a large potential market size, which
sky impression from mass operations, which will could eventually lower service costs and thus pave
not occur in the foreseeable future. The same holds the way towards democratized travel and further
true for privacy concerns related to mounted sensor opportunities for regional passenger transport.
technology passing over people’s heads as not
every vehicle uses cameras. Since most vehicles In summary, with an increasing number of urban
will initially be flying piloted, backlash stemming “no drive” zones, in the initial stages, AAM for
from autonomous operations is rather limited. passengers can open the aerial dimension by
servicing predetermined routes for more than just
Furthermore, the existing electrical vertical take-off high-net-worth travellers. However, neither the
and landing aircraft (eVTOL, the preferred vehicle public nor the ecosystem are yet ready to welcome
type of most operators) technology currently lacks this new mode of transport as an extension
standardized vehicle certification and a regulatory of current public transport. Over the next few
framework. This obstructs the integration of the years, industry consolidation could establish a
wider ecosystem including the airspace itself. dominant vehicle design and realize the required
Landing site availabilities and regulator bandwidth manufacturing economies of scale for long-term
are hurdles to overcome from an infrastructure commercial success, going past the initially low
angle. City planners need to smartly adapt existing travel volumes.
Advanced air mobility (AAM) is spearheading Given the multifaceted potential of AAM across
innovative developments in new technology in sectors, stakeholders must work with different
the aviation industry. Despite wide application professionals on integrating AAM in their fields
opportunities across different sectors and first (e.g. from developing processes on how/when to
rollouts in confined sandboxes, widespread send blood tests via drones, to developing building
adoption is not yet on the horizon. Other than standards for vertiports in high-density built-up
advancing technology, the industry will require a areas). New use cases will thereby be unlocked
developed ecosystem and cohesive regulation – the – from the provision of faster operations in the
latter covering both vehicle certification and AAM time-sensitive field of healthcare to enabling better
operations with increasing levels of automation. access to supplies in remote locations.
New business models that share risk and Finally, AAM goes beyond unlocking new use cases
ownership between private and public entities must for the aviation sector. AAM, and the high degree of
be developed to unlock the sizeable investments automation it provides, serves as a front-runner in
needed in physical and digital infrastructure. advancing automation for the entire aviation sector.
Thus, each stakeholder must have access to This cutting-edge domain could represent the initial
a comprehensive understanding of AAM and phase of a pivotal shift that can potentially redefine
clear visibility on the social, commercial and the aviation landscape in the coming years.
environmental opportunities.
Going forward, the industry will benefit from
Another prerequisite for faster rollout is public implementation roadmaps designed to enable
acceptance, which needs trust-building by and accelerate the adoption of AAM. The
emphasizing the societal benefits and limited AVIATE community will continue to foster
adverse impacts of AAM. Education is key to inform global collaboration, by helping to shape key
the wider public about the strengths and limitations deliverables and by facilitating dialogues for the
of AAM, and, with that, addressing some of the responsible integration of advanced air mobility and
public concerns on safety (e.g. when it comes to autonomous aviation technologies.
autonomous aviation operations).
Javier González
Partner; Global Co-Lead, Kearney Center for
Advanced Mobility, Kearney, Spain
Production
Madhur Singh
Editor, World Economic Forum