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Seismological Evaluation
KRINITZSKY, Chapter 3

3.1 Introduction
Types of ground motion input:

site-specific - these are required for major projects

like dams, nuclear power plants.
Geological and seismological
evaluation are needed.

non-site-specific - there is no need for geological

and seismological studies. Ground
motions are obtained from building
codes.

SEISMOLOGICAL EVALUATION
KRINITZSKY, Chapter 3

Objectives
A seismological evaluation is to determine

1. The source of earthquakes

2. The mechanisms by which these earthquakes are generated
3. Their return period
4. The attenuation of earthquake ground motions
5. The maximum earthquake events that may reasonably
be expected

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Seismological Evaluation
3.4 Attenuation of Earthquake Ground Motions
Attenuation - is the characteristic decrease in
amplitude of the seismic waves with distance from
source. It results from geometric spreading of
propagating waves , energy absorption, and
scattering of waves.
Attenuation of ground motion through rock over a large
distance (of the order of 300 km) can be significant; Ex. In
the Mexico City earthquake of 1985, a PGA of the order of
only 0.03g was observed at a site having an epicentral
distance of 350 km for an earthquake of magnitude 8.1.

Attenuation of Earthquake Ground Motion

See also Fig. 3-2,

3-3, 3-4.

The intraplate earthquakes have markedly lower attenuation than

plate boundary earthquakes.

It may be that attenuations along plate boundaries are greater because

the rocks are hotter and more fragmented, whereas the intraplate rocks
are relatively flat lying and less heterogeneous. This is still a speculation.

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Seismological Evaluation

Seismological Evaluation
3.5 Earthquake Sources
Seismic evidence can supplement geological evidence to obtain clues for
earthquake occurrences

3.5.1 Microearthquakes
Small earthquakes (magnitude between 1 and 4.5) that are recorded by
instruments but for most of their range are not sensed by people. They help to:

1. Define broad areas of seismicity and activity along fault zones

2. Fix the lengths and depths of fault segments, thus assisting in judging
the potentials for maximum earthquakes
3. Provide focal mechanism
4. Give numerical values on comparative rates of occurrence of earthquakes
5. Provide criteria to distinguish between tectonically induced small
earthquakes and non-tectonic small earthquakes.

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Seismological Evaluation
3.5.2 Tectonic and Non-tectonic Earthquakes

Small, nontectonic earthquakes are those that are

commonly induced by water loading in reservoirs, or by
quarrying, mining, or other activities.

They have shallow focal depths, their patterns are not

related to fault zones, and their occurrence are confined to,
or closely adjacent to areas of loading or unloading.

Nontectonic earthquakes can be dismissed also as

evidences of a potential for larger earthquakes.

Seismological Evaluation
3.5.3 Seismic Zones or Seismic Source Areas
- refer to an inclusive area within which an earthquake of a given
maximum magnitude is postulated to occur anywhere. The earthquake
is a floating earthquake.
- the purpose of specifying zones with floating earthquakes is to avoid
surprises, particularly from capable faults that have not been mapped.
- seismic zones are based on present tectonism. They are determined by
the patterns of observed earthquakes and geological evidences of
earthquake activity.
- Criteria for determining boundaries of seismic zones:
1. Zones that have great activity should be as small as possible.
2. A single earthquake can adjust a boundary to a seismic zone but
cannot create a zone.
3. The maximum felt earthquake is equal to or less than the assigned
maximum zone earthquake.
4. The assigned maximum zone earthquake is a floating earthquake,
one that can be moved anywhere in that zone.
5. Assignment of the maximum zone earthquake is judgmental.

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Seismological Evaluation
3.6 Recurrence of Earthquakes

• Usually expressed through a b-line or b-value

• b-line - The rate at which earthquakes of
different sizes in an area is assumed
to follow the Gutenberg-Richter equation

log N = a – bM
where:
N = the number of earthquakes within the source area
having either a magnitude M (noncumulative) or
equal to M plus all smaller magnitude earthquakes
(cumulative). Intensity at the point of origin can be
substituted for M.

Seismological Evaluation
a = a constant for the overall occurrence rate in the source area
b = a constant controlled by the distribution of events between the
Magnitude levels.

The relationship plots as a straight line on semi-log paper and it is

usually developed by fitting the line to available earthquakes records
Including microearthquakes. The line is extrapolated to indicate time
Intervals for recurrence of large earthquakes for which data are not
available.

Problems with b-lines

1. b-lines do not apply to faults but only to areas
2. They can serve only where the number of earthquakes are large enough
to be statistically significant.
3. Projections of the b-line will not make up for a lack of data at the
projected levels

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Seismological Evaluation

Gutenberg-Richter b - line

Seismological Evaluation

3.7 Induced Seismicity

Earthquakes can be induced by such activities as
quarrying, mining and impoundment of reservoirs. These are,
with rare exceptions, nontectonic earthquakes. They are
shallow, relatively small, and are unrelated to potential
earthquakes that are of tectonic origin. Damaging earthquakes
are tectonic in origin, meaning they are rooted in crystalline
rocks where stress drops are large during rupture.

At best, the induced earthquakes may trigger tectonic

earthquakes , but this may happen only when the tectonic
earthquakes are ready to occur from natural causes.

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Seismological Evaluation
3.8 Predicting Earthquakes

Accurate prediction of earthquakes can have enormous social benefits.

However, predictions make no contribution to design, as structures must already
be designed for the expected level of earthquake excitation.

3.9 Selecting Earthquake Ground Motions

The use of seismological data to estimate ground motions falls under two
categories: theoretical and empirical.

3.9.1 Theoretical Interpretations - an example is the WES RASCAL computer

code (see text).
3.9.2 Dispersion in the data for earthquake ground motions – many variables
affect the evaluation of ground motions, hence the difficulty in accurate
and consistent estimations based on theoretical considerations.
3.9.3 Empirical interpretations - interpret the observed variability of data to
set ranges of values of parameters.

Theory and empirical data must be used to complement each other. An example is the
interpretation of the lack of data on strong motions in the central and eastern US and
attenuation theory.

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Geological Evaluation
Krinitzsky, Chapter 4

Objectives of a geological evaluation:

1. To identify the geological features that concentrate

strain energy and produce abrupt stress releases

2. To estimate the maximum earthquakes that may

consequently be generated

3. To estimate the recurrence of maximum earthquakes

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Geological Evaluation
Investigation
- geophysical data
- geology-related features

Fault Evaluation
- Fault movements
- Dimensions of Faults vs. earthquake magnitudes

Surface Breakage from fault movements

- Strike-slip fault
- Normal fault
- Thrust fault

Forms of Ground Motion

Krinitzsky, Chapter 5

Accelerogram – the record from an accelerometer presenting

acceleration as a function of time.

Strong motion accelerograms record a broad range of earthquake

acceleration larger than a threshold level,
e.g. 0.01g.

Observatory seismographs – used to record small ground motion;

and usually go off scale during large earthquakes
or when located near an earthquake source.

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Forms of Ground Motion

Typical processed record for
strong motion.

The velocity was produced by

Integrating the acceleration.

The displacement was produced

By integrating the velocity.

Forms of Ground Motion

Duration of strong ground motion – the length of time
during which ground motion at a site exceeds a designated
threshold of severity.

2 procedures to obtain duration:

1. Summation Method by Trifunac and Brady –

The method integrates the square of the acceleration
until the growth of the curve levels off, then 5% is
removed from each end of the curve.

2. Bracketing Method by Bolt – a threshold of .05g is

established. The time between the first and last
intercept of the threshold level is the duration.

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Forms of Ground Motion

0.05 g bracketed duration for the

1988 Saguenay 1125S17L
accelerogram (Magnitude 5.9; site-
to-source distance of 70.3 km)

Bracketing Method by Bolt

Trifunac and Brady Method

Forms of Ground Motion

Response Spectrum
The maximum values of acceleration, velocity, and
displacement experienced by single-degree-of-freedom
systems spanning a selected range of natural periods
when subjected to a given time history of earthquake
ground motion

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Response Spectra

(From Clough & Penzien)

Construction of Response Spectrum

Response Spectra

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Response Spectra
Displacement Response

When the damping ratio is small (say, < 10%), and since the
negative sign has no real significance with regard to
earthquake excitation, this equation can be reduced to

Response Spectra
Taking the first time derivative of Eq. (25-2), one obtains
the corresponding relative velocity time history

Further, substituting Eqs. (25-2) and (25-3) into the forced vibration equation
of motion, written in the form

one obtains the total acceleration relation

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Response Spectra
The absolute maximum values of the response given by Eqs. (25-2), (25--
3), and (25-5) are called the spectral relative displacement, spectral
relative velocity, and spectral absolute acceleration, respectively; these
will be denoted herein as Sd(ξ,߱), Sv(ξ,߱), and
Sa(ξ,߱), respectively.

As will be shown subsequently, it is usually necessary to calculate only

the so-called pseudo-velocity spectral response Spv(ξ,߱) denoted by

where the subscript max refers to the maximum absolute value of

response over the entire time history. Now from Eq. (25-2), it is seen that

Response Spectra
and from Eqs. (25-3) and (25-6) that (for ξ= 0)

which are identical except for the trigonometric terms. Note that Sv(0.߱) and
Spv(0,߱) differ very little numerically, except in the case of very long period
oscillators, i.e., very small values of ߱. For damped systems, the difference
between Sv and Spv is considerably larger and can differ by as much as 20%
for ξ= 0.20. Note also from Eq. (25-5) for ξ= 0 that

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Response Spectra
It can be shown that Eq. (25-11) is very nearly satisfied for damping
values over the range 0 <ξ < 0.20, therefore, we are able to use the
approximate relation

The quantity on the right hand side of Eq. (25-12) is called the
pseudo-acceleration spectral response and is denoted as Spa(ξ,߱).
This quantity is particularly significant since it is a measure of the
maximum spring force developed in the oscillator, i.e.,

Response Spectra
Hence, only the pseudo-velocity response spectrum as defined by
Eq.(25-6) need be generated for any prescribed single component
of earth quake ground motion. The other desired response spectra
can be easily obtained using the relations

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Example. Response spectra for the El Centro ground motion (N-S component)
(for a given damping)

Displacement
Spectrum

Pseudo-velocity
Spectrum

Pseudo-acceleration
Spectrum

NATURAL VIBRATION PERIOD, T, sec

Response Spectra
Due to the simple relationships existing among the three types of spectra
as given by Eqs. (25-14) and (25-15), it is possible to present them all in a
single plot. This may be accomplished by taking the log (base 10) of Eqs.
(25-14) and (25-15) to obtain

From these relations, it is seen that when a plot is made with log Spv as
the ordinate and log ߱ as the abscissa, Eq. (25-16) is a straight line with
slope of +450 for a constant value of log Sd and Eq. (25-17) is a straight
line with slope of -450 for a constant value of log Spa. Thus, a four-way
log plot as shown in Fig. 25-3 allows all three types of spectra to be
illustrated on a single graph.

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Tripartite Response Spectra

Response Spectra
When interpreting such plots, it is important to note the following
limiting values:

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Response Spectra
Tripartite diagram of smoothed response spectra

Response Spectra
Design Response Spectra (NSCP, 2010)

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Charts for Parameters of Earthquake Ground Motions

• Dispersion in the Data

Even for an area with uniform properties, the spread in measured
values for peak particle acceleration, velocity, displacement, and duration
of shaking is wide. (See Fig. 5-11 a and b)

• Use of Parameters of Peak Motions

When peak motions are specified for an engineering site, they serve
as a means to select suitable accelerograms for use in dynamic analysis.

Synthetic accelerograms can be created to the specified peak motions.

Also, existing accelerograms from real earthquakes can be used

directly or they can be scaled or adjusted.

Duration cannot be scaled because stretching or compressing a

record can affect the spectral content. Duration can be increased
by repeating portions of the record, and deleting will decrease the
record.

Accelerograms that are selected should represent the conditions at the

site. These are:

• Magnitude of the earthquake

• Focal depth
• Type of fault
• Distance of transmission
• Attenuation characteristics of the region

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Intensity –Related Ground Motions

Krinitzsky and Chang (1988) developed a set of 12 charts that relate parameters
for peak earthquake ground motions to MM Intensity. (See Appendix 2)

The charts include values for:

• Hard vs soft sites

• Near field vs far field
• Sizes of earthquakes affecting duration

Magnitude–Related Ground Motions

Krinitzsky, Chang and Nuttli (1988) developed 12 charts (Appendix 2)
that relate parameters for earthquake ground motion in terms of:

• Magnitude of the earthquake

• Hypocentral distance
• hard and soft sites
• Shallow plate boundary events with focal depth ≤ 19 km
• Subduction zone events with focal depths ≥ 20 km

Seismic Coefficients

• are used to adjust motions from a strong motion

instrument to convert them into appropriate values
for use in design.

• An example of a seismic coefficient is the ratio

between the acceleration for an appropriate spectral
content and response in structure, with the
acceleration in the ground.

• In practice, coefficients are presented in combination

with maps in which areas or zones are keyed to
coefficient levels.

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Selecting Design Motions

Krinitzsky, Chapter 6

Procedures in selecting design motions are either

• Site specific or non-site specific

• Deterministic or probabilistic
• Theoretical or empirical
• based on intensity relationship or magnitude relationship

Motions are selected that reflect:

• The larger setting, whether shallow plate boundary, a subduction zone,
or an intraplate area
• Site condition, whether site is hard or soft
• Earthquake source or sources
• Attenuated motions that will be felt at the site

Assigning peak earthquake ground motions (intensity-related)

can be based on two cases:

• Active faults as source of earthquake

• Seismic zones with no surface evidences of active faults

Two methods for assigning site-specific earthquake ground motions:

1. Assign earthquake intensities for the site based on the sizes

of the source earthquakes and the distances from sources to
the site. Select peak ground motions that are appropriate for
these intensities.

2. Assign an earthquake magnitude to each of the sources. Attenuate

the motions for the appropriate magnitude levels over the distances
from a source to the site.

(Study the examples in Krinitzsky, Chapter 5)

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Motions in the subsurface

Earthquake motions at the ground surface are also attenuated into

the subsurface as evidenced in the 1976 Tangshan earthquake.

On the ground surface the intensity was MM XI. Beneath the surface
where there was extensive coal mining down to a depth of about 800 m,
The intensity dropped from MM XI to MM VII. (See Fig. 6-6 and 6-7)

Deterministic vs Probabilistic Methods

Deterministic methods have single outcomes, the maximum ground motions.
They are obtained from a combination of empirical knowledge, theoretical
conceptualization, and professional judgment. They are not time dependent.

Probabilistic characterization assumes that:

1. No structure is absolutely safe.

2. Given enough time, no specified motion is absolutely the maximum.

Applicability

Probabilistic estimates are unreliable when projections are attempted

beyond the database. Near the database, the procedure can elicit better
understanding of the time factor in seismic evaluations. This limitation
restricts applications to operating-basis earthquakes (OBE) when an analysis
is for a critical structure in a seismically active region. In site specific study
for a critical structure in a seismic region, one should use a deterministic
analysis to obtain motions for a maximum credible earthquake (MCE)

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Deterministic Hazard Analysis

Deterministic hazard analysis (DSHA) is a simple procedure which provides
a straightforward framework for the computation of ground motions to be
used for the worst case design.

For specialty or special structures such as nuclear power plants, large

dams, and so on, DSHA can be used to provide a safe design.

DSHA involves many subjective decisions and does not provide any
information on the likelihood of failure of the structure over a given period
of time.

Because of these reasons, its application is restricted when sufficient

information is not available to carry out any probabilistic analysis.

Deterministic Hazard Analysis

DSHA consists of five steps:

a. Identification of all potential earthquake sources

surrounding the site, including the source geometry.

b. Evaluation of source to site distance for each earthquake

source. The distance is characterized by the shortest
epicentral distance or hypocentral distance if the source is a
line source.

c. Identification of the maximum (likely) earthquake expressed

in terms of magnitude or any other parameter for ground
shaking for each source.

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Deterministic Hazard Analysis

d. Selection of the predictive relationship (or attenuation
relationship) to find the seismic hazard caused at the
site due to an earthquake occurring in any of the
sources. For example, the Cornell et al. relationship
gives:

ln PGA(gal) = 6.74 + 0.859m – 1.80 ln (r + 25)

where r is the epicentral distance in kilometers and m is

the magnitude of earthquake.

e. Determination of the worst case ground shaking

parameter at the site.

Deterministic Hazard Analysis

Example:

A site is surrounded by three independent sources of earthquakes, out

of which one is a line source, as shown in the figure. Locations of the
sources with respect to the site are also shown. The maximum
magnitudes of earthquakes that have occurred in the past for the
sources are recorded as:

Source 1, M7.5 Source 2, M6.8 Source 3, M5.0

Using deterministic seismic hazard analysis compute the peak ground

acceleration to be experienced at the site.

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Deterministic Hazard Analysis

Site

Sources of earthquake near the site (DSHA)

Deterministic Hazard Analysis

Solution: It is assumed that the attenuation relationship given by
Cornell valid for the region. The peak ground acceleration to be
expected at the site corresponding to the maximum magnitude of
an earthquake occurring at the sources is given in the table below.
On the basis of the table, the hazard would be considered to be
resulting from an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 occurring from
source 1. This hazard is estimated as producing a PGA of 0.49g at
the site.

PGA at the site for different sources

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Probabilistic Procedures

A probabilistic seismic analysis is a quantitative estimate

that a certain level of site ground motion will be exceeded
in a specified time interval.

This can help establish thresholds at which damage can

be expected. This is useful in risk analysis and in insurance.

A procedure for generating seismic probability maps

Was proposed by Algermissen, et. al. (1982).

Probabilistic Procedures
Algermissen’s procedure is as follows:

Step 1. All earthquake sources are identified. The distances from every
part of every source to the site are established.

Step 2a. The number of earthquakes for given magnitude levels are
plotted for each source. These are the b-lines.

2b. Relate the magnitudes to some component of motion,

e.g. acceleration, and to distance from source.

Step 3. Steps 1 and 2 are combined to produce cumulative

conditional probability distribution curves for acceleration.

Step 4. The extreme probability of various acceleration levels are

developed for exposure times in terms of which is the mean
rate of occurrence of earthquakes of a given magnitude.

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Probabilistic Procedures

The extreme probability of

The number of earthquakes for Steps 1 and 2 are combined
Identify all earthquake various acceleration levels
given magnitude levels are to produce cumulative
sources. The distances are developed for exposure
plotted for each source. These conditional probability
from every part of every times in terms of which is
are the b-lines. distribution curves for
source to the site are the mean rate of occurrence
acceleration.
established. of earthquakes of a given
Relate the magnitudes to some
magnitude.
component of motion, e.g.
acceleration, and to distance
from source.

Evaluating Risks

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Selection of Accelerograms and Response Spectra

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