Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

INTRODUCTION TO
PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

2024G-1445H

TEXTBOOK:
ELEMENTARY STATISTICS A STEP
BY STEP APPROACH
By Dr. Omar Alzeley
Allan Bluman Umm Al-Qura University
Tenth Edition, 2018 2024G-1445H
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

The main purpose for this course :

- Introduce basic concepts of probability and statistics.
- Students are able to understand and perform simple data analysis.
- The emphasis will be on concepts and problem solving rather than
on theory.

Topics:

I) Descriptive Statistics:
• Chapter 1: Collecting Statistical Data and Their Organizing.
• Chapter 2: Measures of Central Tendency.
• Chapter 3: Measures of Dispersion.
• Chapter 4: Liner Correlation and Regression.

II) Introduction to Probability:

• Chapter 5: Random Experiments and Probability of Events.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

Assessments*
Activity Weight

Class Participation (Homework, Quizzes, Attendance, etc.)

20%

1st Midterm 30%

Final Exam 50%

Important Notes:
- Only University issued excuses will be accepted.
- Attendance on time is very important.
- Use of mobile is banned during the class.
- Homeworks will be assigned later.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

Chapter One
Collecting Statistical Data and Their Organizing

Outline:
• Introduction.

1-1 Basic Definitions and Concepts.

1-2 Organizing and Representing Raw Data.

1-3 Frequency Distribution.

1-4 Graphical Representations and Frequency Distributions Table.
1-5 Shapes of Frequency Distributions.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

1-1 Basic Definitions and Concepts.

Introduction
• You may be familiar with probability and statistics through
radio, television, newspapers, and magazines.
• For example, you may have read statements is filled with
numerical information about phenomenon such as sports,
health or social activities like the following found in
newspapers.
• The winning number of a football team, the most reliable cars,
the daily allowance of students, the census of Saudi Arabia,
and so on.

• Statistics is used in almost all fields of human endeavor, such

as sports, public health and education.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

• Furthermore, it is used for analysis and as a tool in

scientific researches.
• Other use of it includes operation research, quality
control, estimation and prediction.

For more information see page 2 of Bluman's Book

 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

What is Statistics
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

Statistics is the science of collecting, organizing, summarizing,

analyzing and making decision from data.

EXAMPLE:
The 2010 Census of Saudi Arabia reveals the following:
• Population is 27,136,977 persons.
• 69% of the population are Saudi citizens.
• Number of houses is 4,643,151.

For more information see page 3 of Bluman's Book

 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

DEFINITIONS:
• Data are the values that variables can assume to describe a
phenomenon.

EXAMPLE:
The values that the variable weight can take when measuring the
weights of students who are studying Statistics in UQU.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

Depending on how data are used, the subject of statistics

is divided into two main branches descriptive statistics
and inferential statistics.
However, in any statistical study, you should start with the
descriptive statistics and then the inferential statistics which
is usually the goal of any study.

• Descriptive statistics consists of the collection,

organization, summarization, and presentation of data.

• Inferential statistics consists of generalizing from

samples to populations by performing estimations and
hypothesis testing, determining relationships among
variables, and making predictions.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

• EXAMPLE (Descriptive)
• The 2010 Census of Saudi Arabia reveals the following:
• Population is 27,136,977 persons.
• 69% of the population are Saudi citizens.
• Number of houses is 4,643,151.

• EXAMPLE (Inferential)
• The estimated average height of UQU students is 1.72m
•There is a relationship between the performance of
students in mathematics classes and since classes.
•The population of Saudi Arabia is estimated to be
around 37 million persons by the year 2020.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

DEFINITIONS:
•Population consists of all elements for the phenomenon
under a study.

EXAMPLE:
The 2010 Census of Saudi Arabia reveals the following:
• Population is 27,136,977 persons.
• Number of houses is 4,643,151.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

•Sample is a group of elements selected randomly from a

population.

EXAMPLE
A group of students is selected randomly from all students
studying in Umm AL-Qura University for a research study.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

EXAMPLE 1–1 Descriptive or Inferential Statistics

Determine whether descriptive or inferential statistics were used.
A. The average price of a 30-second ad for the Academy Awards
show in a recent year was 1.90 million dollars.

B. The Department of Economic and Social Affairs predicts that the

population of Mexico City, Mexico, in 2030 will be 238,647,000
people.

C. A medical report stated that taking statins is proven to lower heart

attacks, but some people are at a slightly higher risk of developing
diabetes when taking statins.

D. A survey of 2234 people conducted by the Harris Poll found that

55% of the respondents said that excessive complaining by adults
was the most annoying social media habit.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

•S O LU T I O N
A. A descriptive statistic (average) was used since this
statement was based on data obtained in a recent year.

B. Inferential statistics were used since this is a prediction

for a future year.

C. Inferential statistics were used since this conclusion

was drawn from data obtained from samples and used
to conclude that the results apply to a population.

D. Descriptive statistics were used since this is a result

obtained from a sample of 2234 survey respondents.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

DEFINITIONS:
• Variable is a characteristic or an attribute of an item or
individual that can assume different values.

EXAMPLE
Weight, height, gender, nationality, color, income,
country, ...
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

1-2 Variables and Types of Data

• Qualitative variables can be placed into distinct categories
according to some characteristic or attribute, e.g., flight
classes, departments, gender, color, ….

• Quantitative or scale variables are numerical in nature

and can be ordered or ranked, e.g., number of passengers,
weight, age, ….

For more information see page 6 of Bluman's Book

 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

• Quantitative or scale variables can also be classified in to

two groups:
• Discrete variables assume values that can be counted, e.g.,
number of rooms in buildings, number of students in Stat 110,
number of children in families, ….

• Continuous variables can assume all values between any two

specific values, e.g., heights, weights, temperature,….

• Qualitative variables can be classified into two groups:

• Nominal—classifies data into categories that can not be
ordered or ranked, e.g., gender, color, departments, ….

• Ordinal—classifies data into categories that can be ranked,

e.g., flight classes, ranking, grade letters,.…

For more information see pages 6 and 7 of Bluman's Book

 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

EXAMPLE 1–2 Discrete or Continuous Data

Classify each variable as a discrete or continuous variable.
A. The number of hours during a week that children ages 12
to 15 reported that they watched television.

B. The number of touchdowns a quarterback scored each

year in his college football career.

C. The amount of money a person earns per week working at

a fast-food restaurant.

D. The weights of the football players on the teams that play

in the NFL this year.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

S O LU T I O N
A. Continuous, since the variable time is measured

B. Discrete, since the number of touchdowns is counted

C. Discrete, since the smallest value that money can

assume is in cents

D. Continuous, since the variable weight is measured

 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

1-2 Organizing and Representing Raw Data.

Introduction
When conducting a statistical study, the researcher must
gather data for the particular variable under study.

For example, if a researcher wishes to study the number of

people who were bitten by poisonous snakes in a specific
geographic area over the past several years, he or she has
to gather the data from various doctors, hospitals, or health
departments.

• For more information see page 42 of Bluman's Book

 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

The purpose of this section

This section explains how to organize data by

• Convert: raw data into a data array.

• Present the raw data by constructing Frequency tables,

bar charts, pair bar charts and pie charts.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

Raw data is the data when are collected in original form.

Example1:
Suppose a researcher wished to do a study on the ages of the 50
wealthiest people in the world. The researcher first would have to get the
data on the ages of the people. They are called raw data and are listed
next.

This is an example of quantitative data

 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

Example2:
Suppose a researcher wished to do a study on the grades of 60 students
in Math class, we found the following data:

This is an example of qualitative data

 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

Example3:
Suppose a researcher wished to do a study on the blood types of 60, we
found the following data:

This is an example of qualitative data

 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

Example4:
Suppose a researcher wished to do a study on the heights of 50
students, we found the following data:

This is an example of quantitative data and follows the continues type.

 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

Table Representation of Raw Data

There are two types of representation of raw data:

1. Frequency tables: for qualitative and quantitative (discrete) variables.
2. Frequency distribution table: for quantitative (continues) variable.

Dr. Tahani A. Abushal - Mathematics Department - Umm

AL-Qura University
- Frequency tables:
In this type of representation, we put the raw data into a table that contains 5
columns as shown in the below:

class Tally Frequency Relative frequency Percent frequency

 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

From Example2:
after creating the frequency table, we have:
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

From Example3:
after creating the frequency table, we have:

class Tally Frequency Relative frequency Percent frequency

 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

Graphical Representation of Raw Data

1. The bar chart displays the data by using vertical bars of various
heights to represent the frequencies of discrete or categorical
variables.
Example 2-8 page 76 College Spending for First-Year Students
The table shows the average money spent by first-year college students.
Draw a horizontal and vertical bar chart for the data.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

From Example3:
By creating the bar chart for this example, we have:

Frequency
Class

Frequency
Class
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

• Bar charts can also be used to compare data for two or more
groups. These types of charts are called Pair bar charts.
Consider the following data for the number (in millions) of never
married adults in the United States.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

Example4:
Let’s compare the number of students who pass the exam of
calculus class in the first year of the university from 2013 till 2016.
# of male # of female
Year
students students

The pair bar chart for this information is:

male female
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

• The pie graph is a circle that is divided into sections according

to the percentage of frequencies in each category of the
distribution.
!=

• Example 2-11 page 80 Super Bowl Snack Foods

This frequency distribution shows the number of pounds of each snack food
eaten during the Super Bowl. Construct a pie graph for the data.

See page 80-81

 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

1-3 Frequency Distribution.

Introduction
Frequency distributions are used when the range of values in a data
set is large and uncountable (continuous data). The data must be
grouped into classes that are more than one unit in width, e.g., 10 – 20

Before starting constructing the frequency distribution table, we should provide some concepts:

Range (R) is the difference between the largest value (!! ) and the
smallest value (!" ) of raw data.

Note: if we are given the frequency distribution table without knowing the
raw data value, then it’s not possible to calculate the exact range.
However, it is possible to estimate the range using one of the following
formulas:
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

1-3 Frequency Distribution.

Introduction
Range (R) Formulas to estimate the range
Formula 1 Formula 2

Use: Upper & Lower Limits OR Use: Midpoints

Use: Upper & Lower Boundaries
! = #!"# − %!$% ! = &'()*'+,!"# − &'()*'+,!$%
Exam Score Frequency
EXAMPLE 1: Suppose we have the following frequency distribution table that
51 – 60 4
shows the exam scored receive by 40 students in a certain class:
61 – 70 8
71 – 80 15
81 – 90 8

Here is how to calculate the range of this grouped data using each formula: 90 – 100 5
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

1-3 Frequency Distribution.

Introduction
Range (R)
Exam Score Frequency
EXAMPLE 2: Suppose we have the following frequency distribution table that
50.5– 60.5 4
shows the exam scored receive by 40 students in a certain class:
60.5– 70.5 8
70.5– 80.5 15
80.5– 90.5 8

Here is how to calculate the range of this grouped data using each formula: 90.5– 100.5 5

Formula 1: Use Upper and Lower Boundaries

= (100.5 + 90.5)/2 - (60.5 + 50.5)/2

= 100.5 – 50.5
= 95.5 – 55.5
= 50
= 40

Using this formula, we estimate that the range is 50.

Class is a group of real numbers which has a positive length. The left side
of the class called the lower class limit (represent the smallest value), and
right side of it called the upper class limit (represent the largest value).
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

Steps to Construct a Frequency Distribution

1. Choose the number of classes # :

• The number of classes should be between 5 and 20.
• The number of data $ ≥ 32

2. Calculate the Class Width (

• Note: - can be rounded up to the
nearest positive integer value.

3. Determine Class Boundaries

• After determining the class width ), we identify the first lower class boundary by
subtracting 0.5 from the smallest value of data.
• Then, we add the value of ) to the first lower class boundary to get the first upper
class boundary.
• We set the first upper class boundary to be the second lower class boundary, and
then, add the value of ) to get the second upper class boundary.
• Repeat the previous step for the remaining classes boundaries.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

Steps to Construct a Frequency Distribution

4. Determine Class Limits
• We identify the first lower class limit by adding 0.5 to the first lower class boundary.
• For the first upper class limit, we subtract 0.5 from the first upper class boundary.
• Repeat the previous steps for the remaining classes boundaries.

5. Determine Class Centers (midpoint)

• The class center is found by adding the lower and upper limits then divide by 2
or adding the lower and upper boundaries then divide by 2.

6. Mark a tally | in appropriate class for each data value

• After all data values are tallied, count the tallies in each class for the class frequencies.

7. Determine Actual count (Frequencies), Relative frequencies and percentile frequencies

of classes.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

Steps to Construct a Frequency Distribution

8. Calculate ascending cumulative frequency of classes
• A cumulative frequency distribution is a distribution that shows the number of data
values less than or equal to each upper boundary.
• The values are found by adding the frequencies of the classes less than or equal to the
upper class boundary of specific class.
• This gives an ascending cumulative frequency.
• The last cumulative frequency must be equal to $ .
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

EXAMPLE 2–2 Record High Temperatures (page 47)

These data represent the record high temperatures in degrees
Fahrenheit (°F) for each of the n=50 states. Construct a grouped
frequency distribution for the data, using 7 classes.

The procedure for constructing a grouped frequency distribution for

numerical data follows.

Largest value (!" ) the Largest value (!# )

! = #! − #" = 134 − 100 = 34

 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

$+&
( ")

() + & (+
= = =+
* *
Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.
Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.
Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

Example 2-2 (page 49)

Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

1-4 Graphical Representations and Frequency Distributions Table.

Introduction
Sometimes, using frequency distribution tables are difficult particularly if the
number of classes are too many. So, we can use the graphical representation to
understand the natural and behavior of the data.

1. Histogram:
In a histogram, a bar is centered above each class interval. So, that the height of the bar
corresponds to the frequency and the width extends to the actual boundaries.

EXAMPLE 2–4 Record High Temperatures Page (57-58)

 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

2. Frequency Polygon:
The frequency polygon is a graph that displays the data by using lines that
connect points plotted for the frequencies at the midpoints of the classes. The
frequencies are represented by the heights of the points.

EXAMPLE 2–5 Record High Temperatures Page (58-59)

Another way to represent the same data set is by using a frequency polygon

Here, we
assume a fake
Here, we class with 0
assume a fake frequency
class with 0
frequency
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

3. Ascending Cumulative Frequency Polygon (ACFP):

The cumulative frequency graph displays the continuous data that are
organized in a grouped frequency distribution.

EXAMPLE 2–6 Record High Temperatures Page (59-60)

Construct an ogive for the frequency distribution described in Example 2–4.
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

4. Frequency Curve:
The frequency curve is a graph that displays the data by using curve that connect
points plotted for the frequencies at the midpoints of the classes. The frequencies
are represented by the heights of the points.

EXAMPLE 2–5 Record High Temperatures Page (58-59)

Another way to represent the same data set is by using a frequency curve

Here, we
assume a fake
class with 0
Here, we frequency
assume a fake
class with 0
frequency
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

1-5 Shapes of Frequency Distributions.

Introduction
There are many shapes of frequency distribution that follow the nature and spread
of data around specific values. The distribution shape can give you a visual which helps
to show how the data is:
• Spread out.
• Where the mean lies.
• What the range of the data set is.
1. Distributions that have modes:
 Mathematics Department - Umm AL-Qura University.

1. Skewness and symmetry of Frequency Distribution:

Symmetric Frequency Distributions

Skewed right Skewed left