Delta Alliance – Ayeyarwady Delta, Final Mission Report, 11 December 2013

Vulne

Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment

Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar

Scoping Phase

Delta Alliance Report

December, 2013

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 Delta Alliance – Ayeyarwady Delta, Final Mission Report, 11 December 2013

2013

Delta Alliance

Wim van Driel, Alterra

Tjitte Nauta, Deltares

To be cited as:
Driel, W.F. van & T. A. Nauta, 2013. Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment of the
Ayeyarwady Delta in Myanmar, Scoping phase. Bay of Bengal Large Marine Ecosystem
(BOBLME) Project, Global Water Partnership (GWP) and Delta Alliance, Delft-Wageningen,
The Netherlands

www.delta-alliance.org

Acknowledgements

Herewith, we would like to thank the Bay of Bengal Large Marine Ecosystem Project
(BOBLME) and the Global Water Partnership (GWP) for their financial support for this project.
We are grateful to the Director General of the Irrigation Department, Mr Kyaw Myint Hlaing,
for all the support his Department has given to make the scoping mission successful. A
special word of thanks goes to Dr. Zaw Lwin Tun and Ms. Hla Oo Nwe and their staff for the
excellent organisation and coordination of the mission. The active participation and
enthusiasm of the participants in the workshops and the field trips are highly appreciated. The
hospitality and friendliness of the Myanmar people was overwhelming.

Wim van Driel

Tjitte Nauta

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Contents

Acknowledgements ii

1 Introduction 1
1.1 Context 1
1.2 Objectives of the project 3
1.3 Activities and results of phase 1 3
1.4 Terms of reference of FAO contract 3
1.5 Identification of a pilot project for the ‘Enabling Delta Life Initiative’ 4

2 Methodology Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment 5

3 Present Situation Ayeyarwady Delta 9

3.1 Natural System 9
3.2 Socio-economics 11
3.2.1 Population 11
3.2.2 Political Changes/History in Delta Management 11
3.2.3 Economic Development 12
3.2.4 High Percentage of Landless People in the Delta 12
3.2.5 Problems on Livelihood and Income Sources 13
3.3 Administrative System 14
3.4 Agriculture 15
3.4.1 Importance of the Agricultural Sector 15
3.4.2 Agricultural Practices 16
3.4.3 Crop Yields and Prices 17
3.4.4 Agricultural Damage by Cyclone Nargis 17
3.4.5 Polders: Embankments, Sluices and Drainage System 18
3.4.6 Irrigation 19
3.4.7 Problems with Agricultural and Rural Infrastructure 20
3.4.8 Problems on Farming 20
3.5 Fisheries 21
3.5.1 Fisheries in the Ayeyarwady Delta 21
3.5.2 Problems on Fisheries 24
3.6 Industry 24
3.7 Water Quality 25
3.7.1 Drinking Water Supply 25
3.7.2 Surface Waters 25
3.8 Nature and Wetlands 25

4 Summary of Findings 27

5 Recommendations for Second Phase of the Vulnerability Assessment 33

5.1 Recommendations phase 2 33
5.2 Proposal for phase 2 34
5.2.1 Objectives 34
5.2.2 Activities 34

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5.2.3 Result 34
5.2.4 Planning 35
5.2.5 Proposed project team 35

6 Recommended Follow-up for the GWP- Delta Alliance Global Program on Deltas 37

7 References 39

Annex A: Mission Report 43

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1 Introduction

1.1 Context

This mission report responds to the recent request of Dr. Chris O'Brien, the Regional
Coordinator of the Bay of Bengal Large Marine Ecosystem Project (BOBLME), to realize a
vulnerability and resilience assessment for the Ayeyarwady Delta in Myanmar, comparable to
the “Comparative Assessment of the Vulnerability and Resilience of 10 Deltas” executed in
2010/2011 for 10 other deltas in the world. This study was realized by a team from Deltares
and Alterra in close cooperation with experts in each of the deltas (Bucx et al, 2010).

Figure 1.1 Comparative Assessment of the Vulnerability and Resilience of 10 Deltas plus the Ayeyarwady
Delta (#11)

The BOBLME Project is interested in this delta assessment, as it provides a baseline of the
current state of the Ayeyarwady Delta and it provides the possibility to compare the
Ayeyarwady Delta to other deltas in the world. Apart from the vulnerability and resilience
assessment, the study will also make an inventory of current adaptation measures and will
identify knowledge gaps.

The Global Water Partnership (GWP) has also shown a keen interest to undertake activities
in Myanmar within the framework of the preparation of the “Enabling Delta Life Initiative”: a
joint Global Program of Action on Deltas of GWP and Delta Alliance. GWP, therefore, is co-
financing the delta vulnerability assessment. In addition, the Myanmar representatives and
partners of GWP play an active role in the realization of the assessment. Besides the
inclusion of the vulnerability assessment, Myanmar is also offered to propose a pilot or
demonstration project in this Global Program.

The Ayeyarwady Delta fans out from the limit of tidal influence at Myan Aung to the Bay of
Bengal and Andaman Sea. The delta region is densely populated, and plays a dominant role

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in the cultivation of rice in rich alluvial soil as low as just 3 meters above sea level, although it
also includes fishing communities in a vast area full of rivers and streams (Wikipedia, 2012). It
is mainly populated by farming and fishing communities in several villages besides market
towns, mostly located along the main rivers.

On 2 May 2008, the delta suffered a major disaster, devastated by Cyclone Nargis, which
reportedly killed 84,537 people with 53,836 people missing, and left about 2.4 million affected.
Total damage and loss is approximately 11.7 trillion Kyats, i.e. 4.1 billion US$ (Ministry of
Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement, 2012).

Figure 1.2. Overview of the Ayeyarwady Delta before and after by Cyclone Nargis, impacting
2
severely around 50,400 km of the low-lying delta (NASA images courtesy the MODIS Rapid
Response Team. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey)

Following this flooding disaster there is a clear need for an assessment of the vulnerability
and resilience of the Ayeyarwady delta.

Since it was unknown how much data will be available and whether the right experts can be
found to contribute to the project a phased approach was proposed:

x Phase 1: Identification mission

x Phase 2: Elaboration of the Ayeyarwady Delta description and assessment

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This mission report describes the phase 1 activities. After phase 1 a go – no go decision has
been built in on the basis of the possibilities and constraints identified during phase 1. In case
of a go-decision a more detailed proposal will be developed for phase 2 based on the findings
of the identification mission.

As a result the mission report describes the possibilities and constraints of conducting an
assessment of vulnerability and resilience of the Ayeyarwady Delta.

1.2 Objectives of the project

The objectives of this phase 1 study are:

x Identify the possibilities and constraints of conducting an assessment of vulnerability and
resilience of the Ayeyarwady Delta
x Prepare a plan for conducting a full assessment of vulnerability and resilience
x Preliminary description of the vulnerability and resilience of the Ayeyarwady Delta.

The objectives of phase 2 will be:

x Elaborate an assessment of vulnerability and resilience of the Ayeyarwady delta
according to the delta assessment approach as applied in the Delta Alliance project
‘Comparative Assessment of 10 deltas’
x Make a brief comparative analysis related to the other 10 deltas already studied

1.3 Activities and results of phase 1

The project proposal describes the following activities for phase 1:

x Identify the most important challenges in the Ayeyarwady Delta
x Identify potential cooperation partners in the Ayeyarwady Delta, that could contribute to
the vulnerability assessment (and that could ultimately establish the Myanmar Wing of the
Delta Alliance network)
x Further discuss the cooperation possibilities with the BOBLME project in order to prepare
a detailed proposal and project plan on the assessment of the Ayeyarwady Delta
x Make a brief inventory of accessible literature and data that can be used for the
assessment (including Remote Sensing data, hydrological data, socio-economic data
etc.), and
x Provide a preliminary description of the Ayeyarwady delta on the basis of this inventory.

With the following results:

x Mission report describing the possibilities and constraints of conducting an assessment of
vulnerability and resilience of the Ayeyarwady delta.
x Plan for conducting a full assessment of vulnerability and resilience
x Preliminary description of the Ayeyarwady delta

1.4 Terms of reference of FAO contract

The ToR of the FAO describes the tasks as follows:

x Facilitate/lead a meeting of key of partners and collaborating agencies in Myanmar;
x Lead a familiarisation mission to the Ayeyarwady Delta with local partners and co-
consultant to obtain first-hand information of the current situation and status;

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x Identify potential cooperation partners that could collaborate in a future detailed

vulnerability assessment;
x Prepare a preliminary description of the Ayeyarwady Delta including information gaps,
challenges and opportunities, and
x Prepare a proposal and project plan for a future detailed vulnerability assessment of the
Ayeyarwady Delta.

With the following key performance indicators as expected outputs:

x A scoping study that identifies partners, baseline information, information gaps and
logistical options and a proposal for a future detailed assessment of the vulnerability and
resilience of the Ayeyarwady Delta - by 31 October 2013;
x A brief (1-2 page) report on the activities undertaken as they relate to the description of
the tasks listed above – by 31 October 2013.

1.5 Identification of a pilot project for the ‘Enabling Delta Life Initiative’

In addition to the above the mission has been asked by GWP and the Delta Alliance to
identify a pilot project that could be formulated and submitted for inclusion in the Enabling
Delta Life Initiative: a joint GWP and Delta Alliance Global Program of Action on Deltas.

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2 Methodology Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment

In the Delta Alliance study ‘Comparative assessment of the vulnerability and resilience of 10
deltas’ (Bucx et al, 2010) a framework has been developed (Figure 2.1) for describing deltas
in a uniform format which enables a comparison of deltas with regard to sustainability and
resilience. This framework links the DPSIR approach (OECD, 1993) with a layer model for
spatial development (Marchand & Ruijgh, 2009).

mitigation

adaptation

Enabling /
Constraining

Figure 2.1. DPSIR cause-effect chain analysis (adapted after OECD, 1993) and Layer Model (VROM, 2001)

The framework also provides a linkage with governance issues and with the different actors
and agencies involved in delta development and management.

Figure 2.2 Framework for Delta Assessment (integrated the DPSIR and the Layer models)

Population growth, economic development, climate change and subsidence are the main
drivers of change in deltas. These developments pose extensive demands on the available
natural resources. But also technological development can be seen as a driver of change: it
may provide opportunities for more cost-efficient and innovative infrastructure or exploitation
of previously untapped natural resources. Box 2.1 provides a general description of the main
drivers of change.

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Box 2.1: Drivers of change

Population growth: The global population still grows with some 2 percent per year, although there are
distinct regional differences. The migration of people towards coastal urban areas often yields in a greater
than average growth of the population in delta areas. The number of people to be served and to be
protected against natural hazards will increase.

Economic development: Despite the current financial crisis, economic growth may be expected over longer
periods of time, resulting in larger demands to be met, higher values to protect, more energy to be generated
and more goods to be transported. This may also lead to upstream developments (dams etc.), which are
also recognized as important drivers of change for deltas.

Climate change: There is general consensus that the rise of global temperature is inevitable, with its
associated (local) impacts on sea-level rise and the hydrological cycle (larger and more frequent droughts
and floods).

Subsidence: Most deltas are subjected to the natural geological process of long-term subsidence.
Additionally, extraction of groundwater and fossil fuels, may cause significant lowering of the delta surface
on the short term. Other short-term processes leading to delta surface lowering at a more local scale are
shallow compaction and oxidation of organic sediments, which may also result from human activities.

Technological development: Innovations may open opportunities to enhance the functionality of

infrastructure solutions, to extend the lifetime of infrastructure and/or to develop more cost efficient designs.

There are a number of societal trends that affect the organization and outcome of delta
planning and development (Box 2.2). Of these trends decentralization and privatization may
be viewed as autonomous developments. The challenge is to utilize the advantages of both
trends, while minimizing their undeniable drawbacks. This calls for a selective enhancement
of governance structures, reflecting the regional scale, an integrated and long-term
perspective of more resilience and sustainable delta development.

Box 2.2: Trends in society

Decentralization: brings delta issues closer to the stakeholders involved. Due to lack of national
coordination, there is, however, a sincere risk of uncontrolled and/or chaotic developments.

Privatization: Public-private partnerships are becoming the modus operandi for many infrastructural
projects and services. Increased efficiency of tax payer’s money is a key motive. The risk of privatization,
however, is a focus on the short term as well as a neglect of the public interest.

Participation: Involvement of stakeholders and citizens is important to promote societal support of

development projects as well as maintenance of infrastructure. Planning may benefit from the tacit
knowledge of stakeholders.

Environmental concern: Worldwide concern about a changing climate and environmental degradation has
raised the environmental awareness. Sustainability of development has become accepted as a basic policy
concept for many deltas.

Risk aversion: Acceptance of risk is decreasing in our modern societies. Hence considerable efforts are
made to further reduce or control the risks of natural hazards.

In order to understand how the drivers lead to changes in the pressures and state of the
delta, a multitude of relations between human activities, and physical and ecological delta

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conditions needs to be accounted for. To provide insight into this complex system, a
simplified structure is applied in the form of a Layer model. This Layer model recognizes three
physical planning layers (Figure 2.1): the Base layer (water and soil and including all related
elements such as fisheries resources, mangroves), the Network layer (infrastructure, but also
elements such as agricultural implements, fishing craft and gear) and the Occupation layer
(zoning of land use functions and livelihood elements such as agricultural and fishery
practices), each with different but interrelated temporal dynamics and public-private
involvement. The model indicates a physical hierarchy in the sense that the Base layer
influences the other layers through both enabling and constraining factors. For instance, the
soil type determines to a large extent the type of agriculture that can be performed in the
Occupation layer.

Unfavourable conditions (constraints) posed by the Base layer can to a certain extent be
mitigated through adaptations in the Network layer or Occupation layer. For example, farmers
can use agrochemicals to improve soil conditions. And dykes can be constructed to protect
low-lying land from flooding. But these adaptations to the original physical geography of an
area require investments and need to be managed.

The essence of the Layer model is the difference in dynamics and vulnerability between the
layers, which results in a logical order in planning for the various layers. The layers enable
and/or constrain activities in another layer. Besides for analysing the physical interactions
between the layers, the model is also useful in positioning the roles of different actors, such
as government agencies, private entrepreneurs and stakeholders. The development and
maintenance of infrastructure in the Network layer is traditionally the responsibility of the
government. The government also has a main role in the protection and management of the
Base layer. Moving towards the Occupation layer the role and influence of the government
becomes more restricted and the influences of private parties and citizen’s interests become
more dominant.

The Layer model is largely compatible with other well-known approaches, such as the
ecosystem functions approach (De Groot, 1992; De Groot, 1994; De Groot et al., 2002).

Using the Layer model, it becomes clear that there are three main response themes on which
delta management could focus, i.e. the development and adaptation of land and water use
(Occupation layer), the extension and revitalization of infrastructure (Network layer) and the
management and restoration of natural systems (Base layer), see Figure 2.1. Regarding the
Base layer it should be noted that in deltas especially the sediment dynamics (balance)
between sea, river and hinterland is important. Many deltas suffer from a sediment deficit,
because sediments from the catchment are trapped in reservoirs upstream. Embankments
along the delta distributaries prevent flooding and vertical accretion of the delta plain. The
disturbance of natural delta sediment dynamics (i.e. lack of sediment) leads to land loss and
increased flood vulnerability.

The governance required for sustainable delta development extends over all three layers and
is characterized by a mix of government responsibility and private or non-governmental actor
roles. The stronger private role in the Occupation layer is most clearly symbolized in the land
ownership, which is legitimised through property rights legislation and often embedded in
deep values of ownership and values associated with entrepreneurship. Land ownership
induces private investments (e.g. farms, houses) and can be traded on the free market. The
government can enact its influence through zoning regulations and building codes and, under
very stringent conditions, can expropriate land for a public cause of national or local

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importance (such road networks). Informal and formal arrangements exist for (participatory)
planning processes and their legitimacy.

Although in the Base layer the role of the government is strongest, its management is often
done in a rather fragmented way. Management responsibilities originate from a deep belief of
stewardship to maintain the qualities of water, soils and subsoil natural resources. But the
actual management instruments are mostly partially effective or inadequate to stop
degradation and quality loss. These instruments are legitimized through national or
international laws and obligations and enacted in the form of licences, concessions and
covenants.

As the governance is almost one of the most important driving forces in sustainable delta
development it is not enough to only discuss roles of government and private sector in each
of the layers. The three layer model can be combined with the institutional layer model of
Williamson which thus gives a clear picture to link human-environment systems with different
modes of decision-making (Marchand & Ruijgh-Van der Ploeg 2009). This helps to classify
the different ‘agencies’ and ‘domains’ (Agarwal et al. 2002) and improve the multi-level and
multi-sectoral cooperation and efficiency.

Figure 2.3 summarizes typical delta issues as a sequence of drivers, pressures, impacts,
governance and responses, for each of the three layers.

DRIVERS PRESSURES GOVERNANCE RESPONSES

PROBLEMS
IMPACTS
Demographic trends Land and water use Development and
- population in delta (Occupation layer) multi-level and adaptation of land
- migration - pressure on space multi-sectoral and water use
- shift in land use/urbanisation cooperation - multifunctional land use
Economic - water demand - land use zoning
developments - flood vulnerability - water saving
- status of economy - flood preparedness
- sectoral developments
- upstream development

involvement of
stakeholders and
Technological Infrastructure citizens Extension / revitalization
developments (Network layer) of infrastructure
- civil engineering - outdated flood protection, - land reclamation
- ITC irrigation and drainage system - multifunctional use of
- energy generation - insufficient water supply & infrastructure
in
sanitation - building with nature
- inadequate roads, railways &
ports systems
approaches for
dealing with risks
Climate change Natural resources and uncertainties Management and
- temp. / evaporation (Base layer) restoration of ecosystems
- sea level rise - freshwater shortage - protected areas management
- precipit. / discharge - salinity intrusion - habitat restoration
- water pollution - ecological engineering
Subsidence - flood hazard - environmental flows
- natural and human - coastal / fluvial erosion - multiple use of wetlands
induced subsidence - loss of biodiversity and - ecosystem approach
wetlands
- sediment supply
- mobility of delta distributaries

Figure 2.3: Sequence of drivers, pressures, impacts, governance and responses in deltas (nb: this is a
simplified representation as the vertical interactions between the layers are not included).

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3 Present Situation Ayeyarwady Delta

3.1 Natural System

3.1.1 Geographical Situation

The delta system of the Ayeyarwady River extends in a great alluvial fan from the limit of tidal
influence near Myan Aung (18°15'N) to the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea, 290 km to the
south. This alluvial plain is bounded to the west by the southern Rakhaing Yoma range and to
the east by the Bago Yoma. The city of Yangon, situated on the southernmost spur of the
Bago Yoma, lies at the south-eastern edge of the delta. Most of the delta area falls under the
present Ayeyarwady Region, the remaining part in Yangon Region and Bago Region (see
Figure 3.1).

Figure 3.1 Ayeyarwady region

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3.1.2 Climatic Conditions

Monsoonal climate for the delta leads to an average annual rainfall of about 1,500-2,000 mm
in the north increasing to 2,500 mm in the southeast and 3,500 mm in the southwest. Over 90
percent of the rain falls between mid-May and mid-November. During the monsoon season,
the maximum and minimum temperatures in the coastal zone are about 37°C and 22°C,
respectively. The seas may be very rough, and there are often strong winds from the south
and southwest. The period from mid-October to mid-February is generally dry and cool.
Temperatures rise after February, and April and early May are characterized by hot, variable
weather with pre-monsoon squalls.

3.1.3 Hydrology and Hydrodynamics

The discharge in the Ayeyarwady River is at its lowest in February and March and there is a
sharp rise in April-May as a result of melting snow in the upper catchment, followed by a
further steep rise in May-June with the onset of the monsoon. The maximum flow occurs in
July or August. Most waterways are un-engineered natural water courses, and there is no
extensive system of dredged canals, the only major canal being the Twante canal which links
Yangon with the western part of the delta.

The tide in the Ayeyarwady Delta is diurnal. The tidal variation shows a distinct pattern of
spring and neap tides. The tidal influence enters deep into the delta, which offers
opportunities for tidal irrigation.

Given all the projected water uses (hydropower, irrigation, drinking water supply, industrial
and mining abstractions) water allocation priority problems may arise and an impact on the
minimum environmental flow requirements may exist. Water balances and allocation studies
are necessary to address these future water resources problems.

3.1.4 Soils and Sediment

The entire area is overlain by a thick layer of recent alluvium brought down by the
Ayeyarwady River. Three main types of soil have developed: meadow gleyey clay soils,
meadow swampy soils and saline gleyey soils.

Despite the large sediment load delivered annually to the gulf by the Ayeyarwady and
Thanlwin (Salween) Rivers, the coastline has been largely stable for 156 years, advancing at
an average rate of no more than 0.34 km per century since 1925. The long-term average rate
of increase in land area across the study area between 1925 and 2006 is 4.2 km2/year, but
this masks a period of more rapid accumulation between 1925 and 1989 (8.7 km2/year),
followed by a period of net erosion at a rate of 13 km2/year until 2006 (Hedley et al., 2010). It
is suggested that the coastline encompassing the Ayeyarwady Delta and the Thanlwin
(Salween) River is more or less in equilibrium, and that sediment deposition currently
balances subsidence and sea level rise.

However, due to planned extensive damming projects losses in sediment supply are
expected to occur, leading to possible retreat of the delta. This process will be further
enhanced due to potential sea level rise (Salmivaara, 2009). This could impact the densely
populated delta region and Yangon, and further exacerbate the impacts of extreme events
such as Cyclone Nargis in 2008. Decreased sediment yields may also be caused by the
increased sand mining activities in the river beds.

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Decreased sediment yield has significant impact on the agriculture on the floodplains as the
river brings less nutritious sediment to the croplands. This could furthermore increase the
need to use fertilizers, and thus, cause potential water quality problems.

On the contrary, it is believed that the sediment influx in the Ayeyarwady River may be
increasing as a consequence of deforestation in its fragile upstream landscape and
widespread land use changes across the basin. Irrigation canals appear to be silting up 2-3
times the rate that was assumed when the systems were being designed; any irrigation
rehabilitation would therefore require a serious reconsideration of sediment management.

3.1.5 Cyclones, Storm Surges, Riverine Floods and Tsunami’s

Myanmar is prone to cyclones and April, May and October to December are considered to be
the cyclone months as per last 100 years record. The coastal region is also prone to storm
surges. During Cyclone Nargis, 90 percent of the deaths were caused as a direct
consequence of the storm surge.

Myanmar receives almost all of its rainfall between mid-May and mid-November and (riverine)
floods are quite common in the delta.

The intensity of tsunami’s in terms of round-up and the extent of inundation in the
Ayeyarwady Delta, as indicated by computed tsunami amplitudes, was comparatively lower
than other countries in the region during the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Compared to other
coastal areas in Myanmar (North and South) the amplitudes are slightly larger off the
Ayeyarwady Delta, because the shallow delta extending offshore caused an increment of the
tsunami wave amplitude (Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement, 2012).

3.2 Socio-economics

3.2.1 Population

Population of the country was estimated at 58.38 million during the census of 2008-2009.
Taking into account a growth rate of 1.52 percent the actual population will be approximately
62 million. Ayeyarwady Region, covering a large part of the Ayeyarwady Delta has a
population of 8,041,084 on an area of 35,032 km2, hence a population density of 230
inhabitants/km2. Ayeyarwady Region can be considered as a rural region with relatively low
level of urbanisation. These numbers only concern the Ayeyarwady Region and not the other
two regions in which the remaining part of the Ayeyarwady Delta is located: the Yangon
Region, including the urban agglomeration of Yangon (some 5 – 7 million inhabitants) and
Bago Region.

This population density in Ayeyarwady Region is e.g. relatively low compared to the one of
the Mekong Delta (approx. 500 inhabitants/km2, excluding Ho Chi Minh City) and the Ganges-
Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta (more than 1200 inhabitants/km2).

3.2.2 Political Changes/History in Delta Management

Mya Than (2000) discusses in his paper the “Changing faces of the Ayeyarwady Delta” the
political, social, economic and environmental changes between 1850 and 2000. It seems that
political, particularly leadership, and environmental changes are more apparent than any
other. To evaluate these changes, his study has taken the chronological approach. Since the

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period of study is long, it has been divided into four sections. The first section describes and
analyses the changes in the pre-British period (under the rules of Myanmar kings) up to 1852.
Changes in the Ayeyarwady Delta during nearly one hundred years of colonial rule (1852-
1947) have been assessed in the second section and the third section examines the post-
independence period (1948-2000). As the post-independence saw several changes in
political leadership, it has been divided again into three sub-periods; democracy period,
Burma Socialist Program Party (BSPP) period, and the present State Peace and
Development Council period (SPDC). For further details reference is made to the original
article. More recently, Myanmar has opened up to the outside world and is going through a
political transformation.

3.2.3 Economic Development

The country is one of the poorest nations in Southeast Asia, suffering from decades of
stagnation and isolation. The lack of an educated workforce skilled in modern technology
contributes to the growing problems of the economy over the last decades. The country lacks
adequate infrastructure. Goods travel primarily across the Thai border and along the
Ayeyarwady River. Railways are old and rudimentary, with few repairs since their construction
in the late 19th century. Highways are normally unpaved, except in the major cities. Energy
shortages are common throughout the country including in Yangon and only 25 percent of the
country's population has electricity. An Economist special report on Myanmar points to
increased economic activity resulting from Myanmar's political transformation and influx of
foreign direct investment from Asian neighbours. Agriculture has a major role in Myanmar
economy, as it accounts for 41 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 68.9
percent of labour force (UNDP, 2007, CIA World Factbook, 2009).

In March 2012, a draft foreign investment law emerged, the first in more than 2 decades. This
law oversees unprecedented liberalization of the economy. Foreigners will no longer require a
local partner to start a business in the country, and will be able to legally lease land. The draft
law also stipulates that Myanmar citizens must constitute at least 25 percent of the firm's
skilled workforce, and with subsequent training, up to 50-75 percent. The draft includes a
proposal to transform the Myanmar Investment Commission from a government-appointed
body into an independent board. This could bring greater transparency to the process of
issuing investment licenses, according to the proposed reforms drafted by experts and senior
officials.

In a first ever countrywide study the Myanmar government found that 37 percent of the
nation’s population are unemployed and an average of 26 percent live in poverty. Myanmar
on January 28, 2013 has announced deals with international lenders to cancel or refinance
nearly US$ 6 billion of its debt, almost 60 percent of what it owes to foreign lenders. For
instance, Japan wrote off US$ 3 billion, nations in the group of Paris Club wrote off US$ 2.2
billion and Norway wrote off US$ 534 million.

3.2.4 High Percentage of Landless People in the Delta

In Myanmar all the land belongs to the Nation. Farmers can obtain Land Use Certificates.
Inhabitants in almost all rural areas in Myanmar are divided into tiller’s right holders and
landless people. Almost all of tiller’s right holders are into paddy cultivation by employing farm
workers except those who own tiller’s right of smaller areas. Landless households account for
more than 40 percent of the people in Myanmar, but according to the Post-Nargis Joint

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Assessment Report (PONJA, 2008) it increases to around 75 percent in all 34 polders after
the cyclone.

The average farm size per household in Ayeyarwady Delta is 11.2 acres (some 4.5 ha)
according to UNDP (June, 2007), which is ranked at 1st among the Union in terms of
farmland size per household. It is probably because the process of settling of immigrants in
the delta started only around 100 years ago, so that it was not difficult for people to expand
their lands. However, due to the high rate of population increase, the ratio of landless farmers
in the delta reaches to not-negligible level. Some people lost their land tiller’s right to cover
school expense or medical payment.

Severely affected townships by Nargis are characterized by their high percentage of landless
people, for instance, 62 percent and 71 percent of people in Bogalay and Labutta is landless,
respectively, according to the Post-Nargis Joint Assessment (PONJA, 2008). On the other
hand, there is a case of one person holding 60 acres of farmland. The JICA (2011) survey
shows that in the area around Lubatta the ratio of households which have the tiller’s right on
farm land falls between 39.7 percent of villages in Kyaiklatt Township and 22.6 percent of
villages in Bogalay Township (70 percent at the maximum and 9.9 percent at the minimum at
village level). The majority of households are landless farm workers, accounting over 50
percent except in Labutta and Bogalay townships on average.

Average farm size of land holders who have tiller’s right in the sample villages of the JICA
(2001) assessment is more than 15 acres per farm household except in Kyaiklat Township.
The range of farm size is large in some polders indicating maximum holding area of 200
acres and minimum area of 1.7 acres. There is a big difference between land right holders
and landless households in terms of household income. Average household income of the
land right holders is more than double than that of landless households.

3.2.5 Problems on Livelihood and Income Sources

It seems that the landless households are generally much more vulnerable than the
householders with tiller’s rights. Problems of landless households in the target area of the
PONJA (2008) are identified as follows:
1) Low level of income: The main problem of landless households is low income and lack of
income generation opportunities. Many have an income below poverty threshold of “one
dollar per day”, which is the target of the United Nation Millennium Development Goal.
2) Little opportunity of increasing income: Opportunity of increasing income for landless
households is generally limited. Many of landless people are paddy workers and casual
labour who do wage work or fishery as fishery worker, while very few landless households get
income as tenant of paddy cultivation.
3) Lack of skills for production: Landless households have very limited skills. They have low
capability to generate income themselves due to low education level and little opportunity for
learning modern technology/technique for generating new income. This means they have little
knowledge and experience of income generation activities.
4) Lack of outside support: Systematic supports from outside for enhancing their capacity is
not generally available though there were many direct supports (in-kind, projects) in the years
following Cyclone Nargis. Market information has not been collected in the target area and it
may cause discrepancy of production/harvest volume and amount of income.
5) Limited usable natural resources: Natural resources are limited for landless households.
Land is largely used for paddy production and other land use is not common. Water inside

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polders is actually saline but it becomes fresh again after dike embankments and sluices are
rehabilitated.

3.3 Administrative System

In Myanmar land and water are managed by many ministries, agencies and departments.
Several departments, under their respective ministries, remain for instance responsible for the
supply and management of water for agriculture, industrial, domestic and sanitation purposes.
Different departments have different acts, proclamations and laws, but most of them need to
be strengthened in order to overcome problems caused by the lack of regulations on land and
water. There is also a lack of coordination and collaboration between the different institutions,
including a lack of sharing of data and information.

Table 3.1 includes an overview of duties and functions for some of the most important Agency
/Department (overview after first set up by Prof. Dr. Khin Ni NiThein).

Table 3.1 Overview of duties and functions for some of the most important Agency / Department (especially
related to water)
Agency / Department Ministry/City/Other Duty and function
Irrigation Department Agriculture & Irrigation Provision of irrigation water to
farmlands
Water Resources Utilization Agriculture & Irrigation Pumped irrigation and rural water
Department supply
Directorate of Water Resources and Transport River training and navigation
Improvements of River Systems
Department of Meteorology and Transport Water assessment of main rivers
Hydrology
Ministerial factories Industry (1), Industry (2) Industrial use
Department of Fisheries Livestock, Breeding and Fisheries Fishery activities
City Development Committee Yangon, Mandalay and Naypyitaw City water supply and sanitation
Department of Rural Development – Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries and Domestic water and rural supply, and
Rural Development sanitation
Private Users private entrepreneurs Domestic water supply, navigation,
irrigation and fisheries

Forest & Environment Department Ministry of Environmental Reforestation, conservation of

Conservation and Forestry (mangrove) forests and environment
Public Works Construction Domestic and industrial water supply
and sanitation
Department of Human Settlement Construction Domestic water supply
and Housing Development
Department of Health Health Environmental health, water quality
assessment and control
Department of Health Planning Health Social mobilization, health, etc.
Yangon Technological Universities Science and technology Training and research
Myanma Port Authority Transport Port development in Yangon
Special Economic Zone Department Planning Planning of SEZ’s - Thilawa
Myanmar Development Resource President’s Office Think tank for governance, socio-
Institute economic development and legal
affairs

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Regarding land and water management it can be concluded:

x With exception of the main cities and some township development councils planning and
budgeting is governed by the central ministries and delegated, regarding execution of
activities, to district offices.
x Administratively, Myanmar is divided into seven states (named after the major national
group that inhabits the region) and seven regions (generally areas with Bamar majority).
Apart from the national capital Naypyitaw, each state and division has a designated
regional capital. In a descending order of administrative hierarchy, there were 64 districts,
324 townships, and 2,471 wards as well as 13,747 village tracts (grouping of villages).
x The influence and role of the academic sector is negligible. Also the role of NGO’s is still
limited.
x Although the private sector (mainly Myanmar people living abroad and interested to start
investing in their home country) is looking into opportunities in Myanmar with great
interest, it should be noted that only 30 percent of the transactions is successful
according to McKinsey (2013). This is mainly due to the lack of knowledge and legislation
in Myanmar, e.g. in the specific field of Public Private Partnerships.

3.4 Agriculture

3.4.1 Importance of the Agricultural Sector

Agriculture is traditionally a very important driver for the Myanmar economy. Although the
Ayeyarwady Region occupies only 5 percent of all national land in the Union, it is known as
the rice bowl of the country as it produces most of the rice requirements of the country.
Annual rice production of Ayeyarwady Region of about 6 million tons accounts for 30 percent
of total production in Myanmar of which about 22 million tons annually (FAO, 2001/2002).
This situation is mainly due to increase of farmland area, especially, 25 percent increase
between 1990 and 1994.

Table 3.2 Land use in the Ayeyarwady Region 2012 – 2013 (Source: Irrigation Department)
Type Area in ha %
Cultivatable Land 1,818,467 51.91
Forest and Reserved Forest 720,088 20.55
Cultivable Waste Land 149,168 4.26
Virgin Land 23,020 0.66
Other Area 792,447 22.62
Total 3,503,190 100

The increase of the rice production in the Ayeyarwady Delta got an important boost in the
period 1976 – 1988 with the implementation of the Paddy Land Development Projects 1 and 2
(World Bank Projects). The projects consisted mainly of the construction of polders in the
lower delta provided with embankments, sluice gates and drainage systems, hence protecting
the land from salt water intrusion. For instance in Pyapon District the paddy cultivation area
increased by the construction of 7 polders from 12,000 hectares in 1976 to 34,500 hectares in
1985. In the Laputta District the embankment enclose an area of 42,000 hectares.

Rice accounts for 97 percent of total food grain production by weight. Through collaboration
with the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), 52 modern rice varieties were released

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in the country between 1966 and 1997, helping to increase national rice production to 14
million tons in 1987 and to 19 million tons in 1996.

In addition to rice farming, aquaculture, poultry and pig farms are being operated. Moreover,
some areas (like Labutta Township) are famous for salt production. Some vegetables are
grown for home consumption and the surplus as other source of income. Rice is followed by
black gram as winter crops.

Table 3.3 Crop area in 2011-2012 for Ayeyarwady Region (Source Irrigation Department)
Name of Crops 2011-2012 (hectare)
Paddy 1,933,654
Monsoon 1,473,564
Summer 460,090
Corn 6,280 6280
Oil Seed Crops 96,672
Ground nut 46,545
Sesame 10,900
Sunflower 39,227
Pulses 547,127
Black gram 455,295
Green gram 89,910
Pigeon pea 1,922
Cotton 126 126
Sugar cane 117 117

Total 2,583,976 2,583,976

Cash crop production like vegetables is an important income source mainly for landless
farmer. For instance, some farmers in Labutta North Polder cultivate cauliflower, cucumber,
water melon, pumpkin, leaf on small scale farm land. According to the farmers, profit of
vegetable production is higher than paddy production.

Livestock is an important asset and work force for farmers. Most of farmers own water
buffalo, pig and/or poultry. It is reported that many villages in the Ayeyarwady Region have
inadequate work force due to the loss of huge numbers of water buffalos caused by Cyclone
Nargis.

3.4.2 Agricultural Practices

Agricultural practices are generally still very low tech. Land preparation (by ploughing) is hard
work for the farmer due to very hard soil dried up by strong sunshine in dry season. Usually,
the water buffalo is used for ploughing at the beginning of the monsoon season. Use of hand
tractor is limited because of its low availability in the village area, financial deficit and also low
quality of machinery (or low durability against hard soil).

A distinction has to be made between the rainfed monsoon paddy and the irrigated summer
paddy. For the monsoon paddy only local rice varieties and low input levels are applied. Data

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obtained from the Irrigation Department indicate that for monsoon paddy in the Ayeyarwady
on average only 32.5 kg/ha of fertilizer is being used. The High Yielding Varieties (HYV) are
not suitable for the rather uncontrollable water levels in the paddy fields during the monsoon
season. Also the taste of the local varieties is preferred above the one of the HYV.

Due to unavailability of fresh water in the lower delta the irrigated summer paddy can only be
cultivated in the middle and higher regions of the delta, unless special water conveyance
canals are constructed for the transport of fresh water from upstream tidal reaches of the
river. Better water control permits the use of HYV and the application of higher input levels of
fertilizer and pesticides.

3.4.3 Crop Yields and Prices

Cropping yields are still low. According to the Agricultural Census 1985-86 to 1995-96,
average cropping yield of paddy in Ayeyarwady Region is 3,250 kg/hectare. Information
obtained from the Irrigation Department in the Pyapon District during the mission indicates an
average production of 55 baskets/acre (2,890 kg/hectare) for rainfed monsoon paddy and 95
baskets/acre (4,990 kg/hectare) for irrigated summer paddy. Potential cropping yield of local
variety is originally low because of low response to fertilizer, etc.

Therefore, application of HYV (High Yielding Variety) to a larger extent is necessary, if drastic
increase of paddy production is required. For applying HYV, constraints like i) high investment
cost, ii) unstable paddy price and iii) unverified appropriateness and cropping technology of
HYV in field, should be solved to reduce farmer’s risk. In addition, the quality (taste) of HYV is
considered low by the people compared to the local varieties. Under the above mentioned
situation, improvement of both production amount and quality is indispensable to secure
stable supply of high quality rice for the country and to grow paddy as an export crop.

A minimum price for rice is guaranteed by the Government. Because of its quality the price of
the local varieties is considerably higher than for HYV. The prices can triple in the course of
the season. Due to low storage capacity, lack of farmer organisations, need for cash for daily
life and reimbursement of credits, the farmers tend to sell their products for a low price
directly after the harvest. The large variation in price during the year provides high margins for
the merchants. This issue should get special attention in view of the desired improvement of
the resilience of the rural communities.

3.4.4 Agricultural Damage by Cyclone Nargis

Inflow of saline water into paddy fields by Nargis decreased agricultural production instantly.
According to farmers in Labutta North Polder, cropping yield of paddy of immediate crop after
Nargis attack was decreased to 10-20 baskets/acre equivalent to minus 50-75 percent from
40-50 baskets of cropping yield before Nargis (local variety) (JICA, 2011). However, cropping
yield of 2009 cropping season has recovered with a yield of 40-50 baskets/acre. By puddling
the soil and subsequent surface drainage the salt deposit in the soil could be removed. Main
farming constraints are lack of input of farming tools, draft animal, fertilizer and access to
agricultural finance. These constraints became worse after Cyclone Nargis. Especially, the
number of farmers without draft animal increased from 4 percent to 35 percent.

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3.4.5 Polders: Embankments, Sluices and Drainage System

The monsoon paddy cultivation in the lower delta is only possible if the land is effectively
protected against intrusion of saline water through the construction of polders mainly
consisting of embankments, sluice gates and drainage systems. Figure 3.2 presents the
progressive salinity intrusion in the delta during the dry season.

Figure 3.2 Average salinity intrusion in the Ayeyarwady Delta (1 ppt line)

In view of the precipitation quantities supplementary irrigation is not needed during the
monsoon season. There is also no need to store abundant rainwater during the rainy season.
Contrary, due to the heavy rainfall intensities, the role of the drainage canal is very important.
The slide gates of the sluice are kept open from 15 May to mid-September and the drainage
is controlled by the flap gates of the sluice to keep the water level of the drainage canals as
low as possible. The old river courses are functioning as major drainage channels and small
artificial drainage canals are connected as required in the areas with embankment. Whereas
in the areas surrounded by polder dikes, artificial drainage canals are predominant.

Figure 3.3 Functioning of a polder in the lower delta (JICA, 2011)

In the final stage of the rainy season the slide gates of the sluice located end points of the
drainage canal are closed to store the fresh rainwater in the drainage canals. However, the
salt water intrusions are occasionally found through the degraded slide gates and also

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through leaking flap gates; hence the water impounded in the drainage canal is contaminated
with salty water.

Figure 3.4 Embankments (red lines) in Ayeyarwady Region.

3.4.6 Irrigation

As the average annual rainfall can be more than 3,000 mm and concentrated in the rainy
season from May to October, no irrigation is practiced for rainy season paddy cultivation in
the area. At the end of the monsoon season the fresh rainwater is stored in the drainage
canal for irrigation, livestock and miscellaneous purposes for the dry season.

In the lower delta irrigation is practiced during the dry season from November to April in the
limited paddy fields located nearby the larger drainage canals by pumping the water from the
canal. Diesel pumps are used and lifted water is conveyed through small ditches or in plot to
plot method.

There are however also several special polder areas where irrigation water is conveyed from
the intake of the upstream reach of the tidal river where the water is fresh and free from salt
water contamination (JICA, 2011). For instance in Labutta North polder, the irrigation water in
the dry season from October to April is conveyed from the sluice gate intake located 16 miles
(26 km) from the north boundary polder dike in the upstream of Ywe River. The irrigation
water is conveyed through the feeder canal and it is filled into the drainage canals. Then the
irrigation water is to be supplied to the field along the drainage canal by pumping. The project

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was completed in the year 2000, and the beneficial area is 2,500 acres (1,000 ha). However,
it seems that the project did not accomplish the initially proposed target of the irrigation area
and paddy production.

Tidal irrigation during the dry season is extensively practiced in the middle delta, while in the
upper delta irrigation takes place by gravity (in case of upstream intake) or pumping.

3.4.7 Problems with Agricultural and Rural Infrastructure

JICA (2011) identified the problems with agriculture and rural infrastructure after Nargis as
follows:

1) Low height of polder dike: Emergency rehabilitation work to restore the crest elevation of
the dike to its original height before the Nargis has been completed already by the
Government (Irrigation Department).
2) Poor water tightness of sluice gates: Salt concentrations of water in the drainage are too
high due to saline water intrusion through damaged sluices. This seriously affects farming in
the serviced areas. In addition, inundation of farms occurs due to poor drainage caused by
uncontrolled sluice gate in wet season.

3.4.8 Problems on Farming

As far as the present farming system in the Ayeyarwady Delta is concerned, the World Bank
study (August, 1999) described it concisely as follows:

“The Ayeyarwady Delta of southern Myanmar is a fragile and intricate ecosystem of

mangrove swamps and tidal estuaries. Non saline arable areas are limited and becoming
scarce due to the erosion of riverbanks, saltwater intrusion, and increasing soil salinity. Poor
water control and drainage works contribute to periodic flooding and crop losses. Most poor
households cultivate a single crop of traditional monsoon paddy. Better-off farmers able to
grow early maturing, high-yielding varieties of paddy benefit from an additional winter crop
such as groundnuts or soybeans. In the very few areas where irrigation facilities are available,
summer paddy is grown. Marginal farm households cannot afford to use chemical fertilizer or
manure and suffer from declining crop yields. In some townships such as Laputta, Bogalay
and Mawlamyaingyun, it is estimated that more than half of the population is landless. Many
marginal farmers engage in fishing and crabbing. Those who fish typically do not own fishing
gear or boats and depend on fish traders for such resources. Some households raise pigs,
chickens, or ducks. Others crop during the slack growing season by borrowing from more
well-off farmers; loans are paid back through labour or through a portion of paddy crop. The
effective interest rate charged by fish traders, rice traders and others in these loan
arrangements typically amount to 10 per cent a month”

According to JICA (2011) the major problems on farming in the Nargis areas can be
summarized as follows:

1) Poor farming techniques: Since natural soil condition of polder areas have been
deteriorated, adequate farm management is essential to reduce such risk. Most of farmers in
polder areas have practiced traditional farming such as “use of ordinary (low quality) seed”,
“inadequate use of fertilizer”, “non-regular row transplanting method”, etc. which have kept
the productivity low.

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2) Lack of support on farming technique: the number of staff of the Myanmar Agriculture
Service MAS (now change its name as Agriculture Department), which is the responsible
agency to provide extension services to farmers, was drastically decreased during the past 10
years. Consequently it has resulted to the slowing of agricultural developments.
3) Lack of farming inputs: Lack of seed, fertilizer, animal-power and agricultural finance have
become serious especially after Nargis. Inputs such as seed and fertilizer are required at
every cropping season on a permanent basis. Therefore, supply of these inputs should be
secured to realize agricultural recovery and further development in the polder areas on
medium and long term basis. Lack of adequate agricultural loans is also a serious issue and
farmers have to consider private agricultural loans, which require very high interest rates. As
a consequence some farmers are forced to sell their paddy immediately after harvest in order
to repay their loan.

In addition, the lack of farm-to-market roads or roads in general in the southern delta should
be added as a serious constraint.

3.5 Fisheries

3.5.1 Fisheries in the Ayeyarwady Delta

The fishery sector is the most important sector in the Ayeyarwady Delta after the agriculture
sector. The fishery sector maintains a high per capita consumption of about 43 kg/year
according to the statistics of year 2008-2009. The main fishery resources in Myanmar include:
x Freshwater through:
- Fish culture
- Leasable resource
- Open fisheries
x Marine fishery through:
- In-shore fisheries
- Off-shore fisheries

These fishery practices take place in three main ecological zones in the delta which are
related to distance to the sea and salinity level:
x a floodplain zone characterized by freshwater or a very low salinity maximum, the
presence of freshwater fish species, large scale fencing for fishing and an unknown
percentage of migratory species;
x an estuarine zone characterized by multiple waterways, temporary brackish water,
typically estuarine species, degraded mangroves along waterways and a patchwork of
rice fields, trees and villages;
x a coastal front characterized by a very flat land, quasiǦ permanent brackish water, salty
soils, almost no vegetation and fishing activities targeting the coastal and marine zones.

A JICA (2011) study confirmed that fishery stands as the second important source of income
after farming in all survey villages located in survey areas of six townships in the delta.
Fishing and processing of fishery products provide an opportunity for landless people to earn
income for their livelihood. Based on information from the key informants’ survey, prawn is the
most important source of income in the aquaculture industry in the villages and is given first
priority for earning income. Dry prawn, fried fish and prawn paste making industries are
performed in most of the surveyed villages.

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Figure 3.5 Ecological zones (MyFish, 2012)

The FAO report (2003) on Myanmar Aquaculture and Inland Fisheries gives the best
overview of current fishing practices and developments. The MYFISH report (2012) on ‘Delta
draft scoping report ‘’Improving Research and Development of Myanmar’s Inland and Coastal
Fishery’ provided a recent update.

In this MYFISH report (2012) it is concluded that there is an increasing loss of connectivity in
floodplains due to the extension of rice farming. Like in the Mekong, there is a tradeǦ off
between rice production development and sustainability of the capture fish resource.

In the past years, in the diversity of catches and in biomass; the main species characterized
by a strong reduction are snakeheads and catfishes. It seemed that the fish species
composition looks richer in the floodplain zone than further downstream, which is surprising
(the biodiversity of estuarine zones is generally much higher than that of rivers since they
combine representatives of the freshwater, brackish and estuarine faunas. Similarly the
contribution of migratory species to the biodiversity and to fish yields in this ecological zone is
not clear. This zone is characterised by substantial collective efforts in the past to restock
water bodies in order to sustain the productivity (lease holders must invest into restocking,
and hatcheries provide fingerlings). However water bodies are stocked with mainly
aquaculture farmed species (rohu, tilapia, catla and silver barb), and there is no assessment
of: (i) the efficiency of the restocking efforts, or (ii) their impact on the natural biodiversity.

There is clearly an opportunity for research on the effect on natural productivity of current
restocking efforts and on possible improved options in terms of stocking densities, stocking

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periods, species stocked, water bodies to be stocked, etc. However, there is also a risk that
this research ultimately demonstrates that either the former efforts were not effective, which
would not be politically welcome, or that they were actually effective, which would not be very
useful in terms of applied research.

From a national perspective the fisheries economics of the estuarine zone are clearly more
influenced by coastal and marine fisheries than by local catches, however local fisheries and
the lease system play an important role for small shareholders and local communities. The
respective role of changes in policies, in competition and in the resource base are not clear
and deserve clarification; from that perspective research in biology could focus on medium to
longǦ term trends in species composition, catches and dominance.

Dwellers of the coastal zone are clearly among the poorest of the delta; they suffer from
harsh natural conditions and from a social and economic disintegration following Nargis.

Table 3.4 Inland and marine fisheries production (in thousand metric ton, rounded figures)
Year Inland Marine Aquaculture Total
2001 - 2002 131 298 87 516
2002 - 2003 145 306 132 583
2003 - 2004 195 308 158 660
2004 - 2005 220 330 219 769
2005 - 2006 121 267 276 664
2006 - 2007 320 395 302 1017
2007 - 2008 368 441 348 1157
2008 - 2009 406 532 404 1342
2009 - 2010 306 316 202 824

Aquaculture production in Myanmar has grown in the past decade, see also Table 3.4.
Commercial fish farming, including some large scale fish farms, have grown successfully in
Myanmar in recent years, but now appear to be facing considerable difficulties in sustaining
commercial operations. Large scale aquaculture production in Myanmar is characterized by
low productivity and low diversity. The main focus of the production system is on the slow
growing, low value commercial species. Ponds are typically large (often 20 hectares by pond)
with slow grow-out periods of between 18 to 24 months. Pond resources are not efficiently
used. Farms provide seasonal low levels of employment. The low productivity of the
aquaculture system is compounded by increasing input costs (feed, labour and electricity)
and low outputs benefits raising concerns about the long term sustainability of the model, the
species economics and markets. Large scale export oriented enterprises have reverted to
selling on domestic markets, practices in themselves which may be influencing
competitiveness of smaller scale commercial producers. Commercial aquaculture enterprises
could provide employment, food security and extension and inputs that can support a small
scale household oriented aquaculture development. Hatcheries appear to be
underperforming, and carp breeding and hatchery programs need revitalisation.

Employment opportunities in fisheries and aquaculture are seasonal in nature.

Production systems for fish are dominated by extensive and semiǦ intensive ponds, with
some marine and cage culture and riceǦ fish farming. Scale of production varies, but
particularly in the Ayeyarwady delta region, large ponds and more commercially oriented
enterprises appear to make most significant contributions to fish supply.

Small scale household level aquaculture is surprisingly absent; it can be found with mixed
success. Institutional, policy and services appear not yet to be favourable to development of

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this part of the sector, and it is uncertain whether the present investments will sustain and are
able to move to a scale where they can make significant differences to the income and
nutrition of the many poor and vulnerable households in the Ayeyarwady delta, or elsewhere
in the country (which remains to be investigated).

The Australian Government through the Australian Centre for International Agricultural
Research (ACIAR) is funding a $AUD 10 million multiǦdisciplinary Research, Development &
Extension program in Myanmar that is focussed on improving food security and livelihoods for
small holders in the Central Dry Zone and Ayeyarwady Delta. WorldFish is the implementing
agency for the AUS$ 2 million fishery component of the program and has developed a project
for “Improving research and development of Myanmar’s inland and coastal fishery” over the
next 4 years, which is called MYFish (Myanmar WorldFish). The project has been developed
together with a number of local partners and in particular the Department of Fisheries (DoF)
and the NGO association the Food Security Working Group (FSWG). MYFish aims to
improve the capacity for management of Myanmar’s inland capture and culture fisheries and
facilitate the emergence of co management of fisheries and small-scale aquaculture as
cornerstones of rural food security and livelihoods.

Three project objectives have been identified to achieve this aim:

1 To characterise the fisheries sector in the Ayeyarwady Delta and to assess the scope
for fisheries development in the Central Dry Zone.
2 To identify, test and then demonstrate new approaches to increase productivity,
efficiency, sustainability and equity in fisheries production systems in the Ayeyarwady
Delta and the Central Dry Zone.
3 To strengthen the capacity of Government, private sector and nonǦgovernment
organisations to carry out appropriate research & development for the fisheries sector.

The project has carried out a scoping mission in November 2012 in the Ayeyarwady Delta,
with the objective to undertake a rapid assessment of the fishery sector, to develop a
framework for researchable projects and to contribute to a characterisation study of the Delta
in 2013.

3.5.2 Problems on Fisheries

According to WorldFish, the Ayeyarwady Delta has the potential to be as productive as the
Mekong Delta. However, pressures (such as overfishing, destructive fishing practices,
reduced fish migration routes due to dams) exploitation mangroves, limited research and
development and monitoring, increasing water pollution) are now being exerted on fish stocks
and the natural resources that support production in the Delta and there are concerns that
current fish production, consumption and export earnings levels may become difficult to
maintain. Anecdotal information from fishery communities also suggests that fish catches
have yet to return to pre-Cyclone Nargis levels.

3.6 Industry

Since the development of the delta has been launched only from early 20th century,
industries apart from those related to farming (e.g. rice mills) and fishery (e.g. ice factories)
are not found yet.

The opening up of the country to the outside world and the accompanying liberalisation of the
economy will attract more industry to Myanmar. This industry will mainly concentrate in the
economic free zones, of which Thilawa, near Yangon, is located within the Ayeyarwady Delta.

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3.7 Water Quality

3.7.1 Drinking Water Supply

Arsenic contamination of drinking water sources is an emerging public health issue in

Myanmar. In early 2000, Save the Children UK’s (SC UK) Water and Sanitation Programme
identified arsenic contamination of groundwater in rural parts of the Ayeyarwady Delta (Tun,
2003). Since that time, there has been growing interest, concern and action related to arsenic
testing, communication and mitigation in Myanmar. However, the magnitude of arsenic
contamination of groundwater sources in Myanmar is still rather unknown, as no
comprehensive studies have been conducted. Recommendable activities are:

x Retesting and confirmation of arsenic levels of water sources

x Arsenic education/awareness raising
x Community mobilization and immediate protection measures
x Identification and implementation of alternative drinking water sources

Water scarcity has become a daily challenge in Myanmar’s Ayeyarwady Delta in the dry
season, with thousands still struggling after damage to water sources by Cyclone Nargis in
May, 2008. The delta’s inhabitants traditionally source drinking water from rainwater
harvesting, communal water ponds and tube and open wells, since most villages do not have
access to piped water and nearby tidal rivers are saline. The ponds help villagers during the
dry season, which stretches from November to May, but can be insufficient. Many ponds and
wells were heavily salinized when a 3m tidal surge inundated much of the low-lying area
when the cyclone struck.

Likewise, groundwater is widely used as a water resource in the Ayeyarwady Delta. The
salinity of the groundwater is affected by the flood and high waves through cyclones or
monsoons (Miyaoka et al, 2012). However, surface water – groundwater interaction differs
per each season.

3.7.2 Surface Waters

Due to various policy reforms the agricultural sector changes the way it operates and
functions. As a result agricultural inputs, such as chemical fertilizers and pesticides are
increasingly distributed either partially or wholly by the private sector (Zaw, 2011). Moreover,
the utilization rate of chemical fertilizers in the delta happens to be the highest among the
agricultural regions in Myanmar. This will result in an increasing state of pollution.

Water quality concerns are also being raised with regard to mining activities and the growth of
cities and industrial zones. The disposal of untreated domestic wastewater will lead to
increased oxygen demand and deteriorating hygienic conditions of the surface waters and the
increase in industrial and mining activities will further affect the water quality in the delta with
a range of additional parameters (heavy metals, organic micro-pollutants and oils).

3.8 Nature and Wetlands

Myanmar is undergoing a rapid transition from one of the world’s most isolated countries to
an emerging democracy and opening up to the world through increased international
investment. Hence, environmental conservation in parallel with economic development
opportunities is one of the greatest challenges for Myanmar in the 21st century (Wildlife

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Conservation Society, 2013). Human encroachment, commercial overexploitation of animals

and fish, agricultural expansion / conversion of wetlands and logging are seen as the greatest
current threats. However, expected environmental and water quality deterioration will add to
this soon.

The natural vegetation of the lower, tidal delta is mangrove forest (today 46 percent of the
total area of mangroves in Myanmar are found in the Ayeyarwady Delta), but this has been
heavily exploited and are largely in a degraded state due to human activities such as
harvesting and coastal development. Most of the remaining forest is in various stages of
regrowth. Four types of forest are recognized (Salter, 1982):
1. low mangrove forest, colonizing soft mud submerged at every tide; characterized
by species of Ceriops, Avicennia, Kandelia and Bruguiera;
2. tree mangrove forest, developing on mud banks inland of low mangrove forest
and at the edges of tidal streams; dominated by species of Rhizophoraceae;
3. saltwater Heritiera forest, on the landward side of the above two types, but still
flooded at every tide; dominated by Heritiera tomes;
4. freshwater Heritiera forest, a closed evergreen high forest, flooded at high tide by
only moderately brackish water; comprised mainly of Bruguiera and Heritiera.

Mangroves in Myanmar appear to be classified as primary or secondary areas (FAO, 2003;

Wildlife Conservation Society, 2013). Primary areas are protected under jurisdiction of the
Ministry of Environmental Conservation and Forestry, are not available for aquaculture and
are essentially forest reserve. Significant jurisdiction of the secondary areas seems to be
devolved to the Department of Fisheries for availability to conversion to aquaculture. The
delineation of primary and secondary areas does not appear to be very clear and even
primary forests are exploited by the local communities.

Climate change and sea level rise poses major new challenges to biodiversity conservation
and nature in general. However there are yet no studies on the potential impacts of climate
change and sea level rise in Myanmar (Wildlife Conservation Society, 2013). The root causes
of these threats are low conservation awareness, poverty, weak systematic biological
monitoring systems, low grassroots support for conservation and weak law enforcement.

It is known, however, that sea level rise and increased water temperatures are projected to
accelerate coastal erosion and cause degradation of the mangroves and more offshore coral
reefs, which in turn will negatively influence fisheries productivity.

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4 Summary of Findings

The Ayeyarwady Delta will inevitably factor significantly into Myanmar's economic
development and emergence as a major regional trade route. At present, however, the
Ayeyarwady Delta is still largely undeveloped and the uncoordinated exploitation of its
resources in some (upstream) areas may pose serious threats to the health of the delta. Thus
one of the country's major challenges will be to develop effective, cross-sector management
of this system in order to ensure that its development will be sustainable and that decisions
made now will not bring later regret, as can be seen in deltas elsewhere.

Delta ecosystems like the Ayeyarwady Delta have a substantial adaptive and resilient
capacity. In contrast to e.g. inland forests, which require decades to centuries to reach a
climax succession stage, delta ecosystems, such as mangroves and marshes develop fairly
quickly into rich habitats once the environmental conditions are favourable again. Worldwide
successful examples show the importance of good knowledge of the basic physical and
ecological processes, early involvement of local stakeholders leading to a participatory
planning process and an integrated and sustainable approach to manage and develop the
delta to cope with the new economic situation in Myanmar.

At present the Ayeyarwady Delta already demonstrates the first signs of significant changes
(exploitation of the mangroves, overfishing, river bank erosion and deterioration of water
quality). However, using the ecosystem approach, deltas can be used by the local people
without compromising the integrity of these systems or overexploiting their natural resource.
This approach is also advocated by the Convention on Biological Diversity (Wildlife
Conservation Society, 2013) and denotes a strategy for the integrated management of land,
water and living resources. The strategy promotes conservation and sustainable use in an
equitable way. At the same time it is stressed that additional measures should be adopted like
improving conservation awareness, fighting poverty, improving the weak systematic biological
monitoring systems, stimulate grassroots support for conservation and strengthen law
enforcement.

Ensuring the integrity of the linkages between delta and the river usually requires to take
measures upstream. Although the highly dynamic estuarine ecosystems and their species are
adapted to seasonal changes in freshwater flows, upstream activities that permanently
change the total flow (such as dams, deforestation, climate change) may have significant
consequences.

Summary of Pressures in Occupation Layer

Pressure on Space: With some 230 inhabitants/km2 the delta is one of the most
densely populated regions in Myanmar.
Vulnerability to Flood: Most of the delta is still active with unstable river branches
and the delta is prone to tropical cyclones with high storm surges. Floods are a
permanent threat.
Freshwater Shortage: Due to upstream developments, climate change and sea
level rise, critical low flow conditions of the Ayeyarwady River tributaries are likely to
increase. Increase of salinity intrusion in the coastal areas is making existing water
supply sources (domestic and agricultural) and freshwater ecosystem vulnerable.

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Summary of Pressures in Network Layer

Ageing Infrastructure: Management of embankments and irrigation systems is a

recurrent problem. Infrastructure to support transportation, water supply,
communications, and power supply is rather poorly developed.

Summary of Pressures in Base Layer

Coastal Erosion: Riverbank and coastal erosion is one of the major issues.

Loss of Biodiversity: Especially the mangrove forests are highly valuable but also
under high pressure from encroachment and exploitation. It is also vulnerable to
accelerated climate change and sea level rise.

Salinity Intrusion: Salinity and its seasonal intrusion gradients are dominant factors
for coastal system, fisheries and agriculture. Therefore, any changes on present
spatial and temporal variation of salinity will affect the biophysical system of coastal
area.

Cyclonic Storm Surge: Due to its geophysical setting the Ayeyarwady Delta is often
visited by cyclone-induced storm surges and incidentally these cyclones have
devastated the coastal area (1974 and 2008). Nargis (2008) resulted in 84,537
casualities with 53,836 people missing.

Summary of Governance Issues

Cooperation between (scale) Levels and Sectors of Government: Efforts are

underway to improve core governance systems and to improve sectoral governance.

Cooperation between Government and Private Sector: The privatization of public

sector industries need to be further developed.

Involvement of Stakeholders and Citizens: Stakeholder consultation at planning

and implementation phase of a project in different parts of the country needs to be
further encouraged.

Approaches for Dealing with Risks and Uncertainties: To reduce loss of lives and
property, Myanmar needs to focus on the development of flood forecasting and
warning systems. Coastal area has already been practiced the early warning system
for cyclonic storm surge and got the benefit.

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During the second workshop the combined DPSIR and Layer model was discussed. The
results of the group discussion are depicted in Table 4.1. Besides the (potential) pressures
and impacts, some first responses in order to cope with these pressures and impacts and the
existing gaps in knowledge are identified in this table.

Table 4.1 – Combined DPSIR and Layer Model for the Ayeyarwady Delta
Drivers Pressures State Impact Response Gaps in
Knowledge
Demographics Base layer Flood hazards Enhanced flood Increased Evacuation Need for
risks unsafety and plans (road overview of all
(consequences) occupancy network, drills) / hazards and
Population in requirements more shelters consequences.
delta Insurances There is need of
Flood early socioeconomic
warning and livelihood
systems / profiling of the
Migration communication population to
systems. understand the
Embankments actual
strengthening vulnerability.
Migration both
into the delta and
out of the delta,
due to loss of
livelihoods,
needs to be
considered.
Exploitation of Wetland Reduced safety Mangrove Size of loss of
coastal degradation and loss of reforestation, wetlands
resources habitats regulations and
enforcement
Network More demand Demand for Need for Spatial planning Present status +
layer for space and corridors / and modern future plans
transportation investments interconnectivity transport (Ministry of
(roads, ports systems, PPP Public Works)
and legislation
waterways)
Sea dikes / Space Altered delta River training Current
river occupation, functioning, no (DWIR + programs, plans,
embankments canalisation room for the Irrigation etc.
river Department)
L+W
Management
plan, blocking of
waterways
(roads).
Lack of water Affected public Domestic water Need for supply What is currently
supply and health, supply needs, and treatment in place.
sanitation ecosystem water quality plants / use of Township
health PPP’s development
(Min. of Border
Affairs, DRD)
Occupation Need for more Irrigation and Altered land use Spatial Population /
layer livelihood drainage, planning, density, current
opportunities fishponds, increased unemployment,
industry, etc. agricultural and projections.
aqua-cultural More insight in
production, fishing rights, not
multi-sectoral aquaculture
development alone, but
capture fisheries
in river, estuary
and those on
delta dependent
on marine
fisheries as well.

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Drivers Pressures State Impact Response Gaps in

Knowledge
Shift in land Reduced Erosion of the Alternative Long year trends
use upstream sediment supply delta safety in sediment load,
to the delta (due measures aerial photo’s on
to dams) (dikes, Building retreat of delta
with Nature (30% reduction,
concepts, etc.) aggregation rate
from 2 to 1.4
mm/yr ,Sivitski).
Information on
Ayeyarwady
tributary
behaviour and
characteristics.
Reduced Enhanced use Leading to water
nutrient supply of fertilizers quality problems.
to the delta (Irrigation Any information
Department) on trends.
Baseline
conditions.
Enhanced Navigation Dredging Trends,
sediment supply problems, programs
(deforestation, clogging of
more intense or irrigation
wrong land use) drainage
systems
Water pollution Public health, Legislation and Trends, need for
(mining, aesthetics and enforcement baseline (Env.
industry, ecosystem Spatial planning Cons. and
agriculture, functioning Clean Forestry) EIA
domestic technologies / legislation) /
wastewater) best practices Fisheries
Need of Department.
responsible Search for
Ministry / carrying capacity.
Department for
WQ monitoring.
Pressure on More congestion Urbanisation, Spatial planning Existing plans
space in the increased traffic
delta

Freshwater Enhanced Water allocation Implementation The reduction in

shortage due groundwater Arsenic pollution of treatment water flow,
to increased abstraction Use of brackish facilities, risking the
demand water minimum
environment flow
requirement
should also be
looked into and
mitigation
measures
recommended.
Current situation
UNICEF study /
Water utilization
department
Subsidence Regulations and What is known
enforcement about
anthropogenic
subsidence
Ministry of Public
Works / city
development /
DID (Domestic
Water supply).
construction
(permitting) -
recommendation

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Drivers Pressures State Impact Response Gaps in

Knowledge
Overfishing Resource Ecosystem Regulations and Records,
depletion functioning (with enforcement measures ->
impacts on e.g. research
fisheries), loss of
biodiversity,
livelihood
Economic Base layer Sectoral Loss of nature Introduction of Township
development developments / livelihood planning,
Status of economy altered rural alternatives planning of
Sectoral and urban sectoral
developments development developments
Upstream Network
developments layer

Occupation Migration to More landless Lack of labour Mechanization Opportunities,

layer urban centres and young for agriculture records
people to urban
centres
Natural developments Base layer Climate Temperature, Downscaling
change precipitation,
storms,
Sea level rise Vulnerability Reduced safety Enhanced Any studies
coastal Relative change
protection (soft 3.4 – 6 mm
and hard relative SLR
measures) (Syvitsky ref’s)
Spatial planning
Emergency
management
Functioning of Increased Monitoring and Monitoring plans
the delta salinity intrusion modelling in place
Awareness
raising
Mitigations
Natural
subsidence

Network Aging of Performance of Inefficient Asset Current state

layer infrastructure operation operation and management (before / after
malfunctioning program Nargis)
Occupation More Less labour Unemployment Alternative Records
layer mechanization needed employment
schemes,
Multi-sectoral
development
plans
Value chain Bad storage Reduced income Better transport, Present status
agricultural conditions, low farmers better credit
production product prices, system,
Better storage
facilities
Farmers
organisations
Technological Base layer
development Network Transport Socio-
layer improvements economics,
ICT (roads, agricultural /
Food / agricultural / waterways) fisheries output
aquacultural Occupation Water Public health
improvements layer treatment
energy generation technology
(salinity,
arsenic)

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Drivers Pressures State Impact Response Gaps in

Knowledge
New Agricultural Higher income,
agricultural output less
practices employment,
(cropping
technology,
storage
capacity,
fertilizers,
farming tools,
etc.)

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5 Recommendations for Second Phase of the Vulnerability

Assessment

5.1 Recommendations phase 2

As described in section 1.1, after phase 1 a go – no go decision has been built in on the basis
of the possibilities and constraints identified during phase 1. The possibilities and constraints
would be related to the availability of potential cooperation partners, baseline information and
accessible literature and to logistical options.

Recommendation 1: The mission recommends to realise also the second phase of the
vulnerability assessment.

The conditions for a full assessment are favourable:

x All parties met during the mission (see Annex A) confirmed the need for such an
assessment.
x The Irrigation Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation has given full
support to the scoping mission and is prepared to give the same support to phase 2.
x During the workshops also delegates from other ministries declared to be able and
committed to contribute to phase 2.
x The GWP representatives and partners in Myanmar are very dedicated to contribute to
the full assessment.
x The MyFish project team offered to cooperate with the team that will realize the full
assessment.
x The consultancy firm NEPS with 13 engineers retired from governmental services has a
lot of knowledge on the delta (institutional memory) and has been involved in many
studies and implementation projects. If needed, this firm could play a role in phase 2 of
the assessment.
x The team has collected already quite some literature, data and other information. The
willingness to provide additional data on request is great. More data will become available
within a few months within the framework of a Dutch funded project on the IWRM data
collection.
x During phase 1 all logistics have been perfectly arranged by the Irrigation Department.
They are prepared to arrange also the logistics for phase 2.

Recommendation 2: Realise the full assessment for four distinct different zones of the
Ayeyarwady Delta.

During the scoping mission it became clear that the degree of salt water intrusion has a major
influence on the agricultural activities in the delta. Moreover, there is a very distinct difference
(in terms of land and water use, livelihoods, economic activities, vulnerability) between the
urbanised region around Yangon and the rural delta. For a useful vulnerability assessment
the Delta should therefore be divided in 4 different zones, each with its own assessment:
x The Lower delta, permanently under influence of salt water intrusion.
x The Middle delta, under seasonal influence of salt water intrusion.
x The Upper delta, beyond the reach of salt water intrusion.
x The Urbanised delta around Yangon.

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5.2 Proposal for phase 2

5.2.1 Objectives

For phase 2 the following objectives are proposed

x Elaborate a full assessments of the vulnerability and resilience of the Ayeyarwady delta
according to the delta assessment approach as applied in the Delta Alliance project
‘Comparative Assessment of the Vulnerability and Resilience of 10 deltas’ for four distinct
different zones:
a. The Lower delta, permanently under influence of salt water intrusion.
b. The Middle delta, under seasonal influence of salt water intrusion.
c. The Upper delta, beyond the reach of salt water intrusion.
d. The Urbanised delta around Yangon.
x Compile on the basis of these four assessments an overall assessment for the
Ayeyarwady Delta.
x Make a comparative analysis related to the other 10 deltas already studied.
x An additional proposed objective for phase 2 which will be crucial in the long run is the
development of technical expertise within Myanmar to underpin the sustainable
development of the Ayeyarwady delta. While the scoping team has no specific
recommendations at this time regarding actions that can support the development of a
base of technical expertise, this issue should be tracked.

5.2.2 Activities

To reach the objectives the following activities are foreseen:

x Compile a comprehensive delta description according to the delta assessment approach,
based on already available literature, data and on expert knowledge. The description
resulting from the scoping phase 1 (Chapter 3 of this report) will be refined and
complemented. Distinction will be made between the four distinct zones.
x Describe all relevant aspects regarding drivers, pressures, state, impact, responses and
knowledge gaps for the occupation, network and base layers and for governance. The
preliminary findings of phase 1 as described in chapter 4 of this report will be checked,
refined and complemented for each of the four zones.
a. Overview of adaptive measures currently applied in the Ayeyarwady delta
b. Overview of methods and tools to support delta management
c. Lesson learned on delta management
d. Research gaps and related information needs
x Make ‘summary blocks’ of the main issues of the delta description
x Develop the Delta Scorecard for each of the four zones of the Ayeyarwady Delta including
brief description.
x Compile on the results of the four zones an overall assessment and Delta Scorecard for
the Ayeyarwady Delta.
x Make a comparative analysis related to the 10 deltas assessment report.
x Layout and printing of a high quality report

5.2.3 Result

The final result will a high quality report with a comprehensive delta description and
vulnerability assessment for each of the four zones as well as for the whole Ayeyarwady
delta, including a brief comparative analysis related to the 10 deltas assessment report.

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5.2.4 Planning

Activities Phase 2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Compile draft, more comprehensive delta xxx xx

descriptions for the 4 zones
Mission with field visits to and workshops in the 4 xxx
zones, collect data and elaborate delta description,
Make ‘summary blocks’ xx
Develop the Delta Scorecard xx
Make comparative analysis xxx
Delivery draft report D
Comment round xx
Layout and printing of high quality report xx
Delivery of final report F

D: The draft report will be delivered end April 2014

F: The final report will be delivered end of June 2014

5.2.5 Proposed project team

Phase 2 (final composition to be determined after identification mission)

x Deltares: Tjitte Nauta, Marcel Marchand, Tom Bucx, Cees van de Guchte
x Alterra Wageningen UR: Wim van Driel, Bart Makaske
x Staff of the MyFish project
x Dr Ir. Khin Ni Ni Thein (expert, member of GWP Global Steering Committee)
x Mr. U Hla Baw ( Chairperson GWP-SEA Regional Steering Committee)
x Dr. Zaw Lwin Tun (National representative GWP)
x Experts from several Myanmar ministries / institutes (to be determined)
x Experts from NEPS

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6 Recommended Follow-up for the GWP- Delta Alliance Global

Program on Deltas

GWP and Delta Alliance are currently developing a joint “Global Program of Action on Deltas”
which consists of 4 components:

x Work Package 1: Capacity Development - facilitating structured learning and

information sharing among stakeholders.
x Work Package 2: Demonstration Projects - developing and implementing pilot
activities in specific deltas.
x Work Package 3: Knowledge and Awareness -developing a framework that would
guide the management and sustainable development of delta’s worldwide.
x Work Package 4: Governance and Fundraising - Build internal capacity of partners
and enhance regional/country level partnerships’ key competencies in fund raising,
project coordination, financial management, stakeholder engagement, monitoring and
evaluation.

The Global Program Initiative has been launched during the Stockholm World Water Week
2013. Myanmar is asked to participate in this Global Program, amongst others by proposing a
demonstration/pilot project for Work Package 2.

During the second discussion the following subjects for a proposal for follow-up projects were
discussed and ranked:

x Salinity intrusion- drinking water supply (++) / Salinity intrusion – adaptive water
management for agriculture, fisheries and nature (+)
x Adaptive flood risk management (plan) (++)
x Coastal defence using the Building with Nature principles(++)
x Set up early of advanced (coastal + river) flood warning system (++)
x Study on the implementation of new irrigation polders (++)
x Stakeholder participation program in delta planning (++)
x Water allocation modelling (+)
x Water quality baseline program (+)
x Solid waste awareness program (+)
x Asset management program (+)
x Subsidence (+)
x Geomorphology of river / estuarine behaviour (+)
x Soil categories survey ->soil suitability study (+)
x Research on overfishing (-)

As a first possible project, that can be submitted to GWP, the issue of salinity intrusion was
discussed. Saline intrusion and salt accumulation in the delta soils, resulting from increased
seepage, floods, future sea level rises and future more intense irrigation practices seriously
affects public health and reduces the agricultural activity and as such livelihood opportunities.
Hence, alternative practices may have to be introduced to cope with the changing
environmental conditions. These include alternative water supply schemes, treatment
technology, awareness raising, re-establishing of dike systems and compartmentalisation,
desalting of agricultural soils, genetic manipulation of existing crop species to enhance

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biological tolerance, cropping of salt tolerant species and introduction of mixed farming
practices.

Salinity intrusion in relation to drinking water supply An integrated approach based on

salinity monitoring, modelling and stakeholder participation to improve water safety plans. In
the Ayeyarwady Delta saltwater intrusion is threatening drinking water resources on a large
scale and is therefore confronting the population with a serious health issue. Water Safety
Plans need to be updated and upgraded, taking into account this new challenge, on top of the
more acknowledged water contamination issues such as arsenic and bacterial contamination.

Currently, however, awareness of the salinization issue is relatively low in Myanmar.

Moreover, local people are lacking the knowledge and skills to effectively anticipate on
salinization of drinking water resources. This project aims to increase the level of awareness
as well as the level of knowledge and skills required for water management in the face of
salinization of resources. It should focus on:

x A better understanding of the process of salinization of drinking water including the

mapping, monitoring and understanding of the surface and groundwater system in the
Ayeyarwady Delta by means of innovative complex monitoring techniques, acquisition
of local knowledge and density-dependent surface and groundwater modelling.
x Monitoring salinization, which should target both the local and the regional level. Local
monitoring information is needed for local-scale water management decisions (where
to install a pump, when to shut down a well, when to stop using a pond, what local-
scale mitigation and adaptation strategies are possible, etc.). Regional-scale
monitoring is needed to increase the understanding of “the bigger picture”, i.e. the
ongoing salinization process, in terms of scale and time etc., so that insight is gained
into expected problems and regional-scale solutions, enabling to anticipate in a timely
fashion
x Effective water planning is only possible if water managers are presented with
possible courses of action, should salinization indeed hamper the supply of drinking
water of a good enough quality. The success of mitigation and adaptation strategies
depends on many factors. Guidance is needed as of which mitigation and adaptation
measures are applicable in what situation.
x The final goal of this project should be to provide effective assistance in the
translation of the project outputs into “salinization robust” Water Safety Plans.

Salinity Intrusion – Agriculture, Aquaculture/Fisheries and Nature: Integrated approach

to ensure a tailor-made and feasible development of an adaptation strategy with a focus on
salinity intrusion across the agriculture, aquaculture and nature sectors. In addition to the
monitoring and modeling capacity, the project should deliver capacity building for setting up a
science based policy process, and stimulate knowledge sharing with a strong orientation
towards implementation of possible adaptation policies. More specific, the project aims at:

x Building the capacity of various actors and stakeholders playing a role in design and
implementation of adaptation strategies for agriculture, aquaculture and nature.
Possible adaptation techniques will be identified and elaborated in stakeholder
workshops and a consultative process. Training modules will be refined with
practitioners, management organizations and users in the delta.
x Facilitating a policy, science and stakeholder dialogue throughout the design,
development and strategic planning of the adaptation strategy. The project targets the
conversion of generic impact assessments and scenarios into localized hydrological
impact assessments and adaptation opportunities within production and conservation
practices.

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interactions in the Ayeyarwady River Delta, Myanmar. AGU fall meeting. San Francisco.

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Van der Most, M., M. Marchand, T. Bucx, T. Nauta & M. van Staveren, 2009. Towards
sustainable development of deltas, estuaries and coastal zones – trends and responses (in
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Annex A: Mission Report

Preparation Phase

BOBLME Project
Contacts with the Bay of Bengal Large Marine Ecosystem (BOBLME) Project started during
the UNEP Global Conference on Land-Oceans Connections in Manila on 23rd and 24th
January, 2012, where Mr. Wim van Driel gave a presentation on the Delta Alliance
“Comparative assessment of the vulnerability and the resilience of 10 deltas” during a special
session on deltas. The Regional Coordinator of the BOBLME Project, Dr. Chris O'Brien,
suggested at that occasion to explore the possibilities to undertake a similar assessment for
the Ayeyarwady Delta in Myanmar. Since that date the following activities have taken place:
formulation of project proposal(s), establishing contacts with the national representatives of
the BOBLME Project, contract negotiations and collection and review of documentation.

Global Water Partnership (GWP)

In April 2013 also the Global Water Partnership (GWP) has shown a keen interest to
undertake activities in Myanmar within the framework of the preparation of a joint Global
Program of Action on Deltas of GWP and Delta Alliance. During meetings with GWP in
Stockholm in April and May 2013 the project has been discussed with the staff of GWP and a
contract concluded. Subsequently, contacts have been made with GWP partners in Myanmar,
respectively the National representative of GWP (Dr. Zaw Lwin Tun), the Chairperson GWP-
SEA Regional Steering Committee (Mr. Hla Baw) and a member of GWP Global Steering
Committee (Dr. Ir. Khin Ni Ni Thein).

Participation in a seminar on IWRM in Nay Pyi Taw

To familiarise with the specific water related issues in Myanmar Mr. Nauta and Mr. Wim van
Driel participated in (and helped to organise) a seminar “Towards Safe and Sustainable
Water Management” on 29th May 2013 in Nay Pyi Taw, organised at the occasion of the visit
of the Dutch Minister for Infrastructure and the Environment, Ms. Melanie Schultz van
Haegen. It appeared to be a perfect occasion to make the necessary preparations for the
scoping mission and to discuss the objectives, program, content and timing of the mission
with the key partners of GWP and BOBLME.

Irrigation Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation

The Director General of Irrigation Department, Mr. Kyaw Myint Hlaing, was asked by a formal
correspondence to support the organisation of the scoping mission. By return mail he
underlined the importance of the assessment not only for the delta area but also for whole
Myanmar. He assigned Dr. Zaw Lwin Tun, Director of the Design Branch of his Department to
provide and coordinate all the necessary support. Through numerous mail contacts a draft
program for the scoping mission was established.

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Scoping Mission, 9 – 17 July 2013

The scoping mission was realised between 9th to 17th July by Mr. Tjitte Nauta and Mr.Wim
van Driel.

Time schedule of the mission

Date Time Activity
Tu 09/07 14.00 Departure from The Netherlands
We 10/07 15.00 Arrival in Yangon
17.00 – 18.00 Meeting Dr. Zaw Lwin Tun
Th 11/07 09.00 - 14.00 Workshop 1 at Irrigation Department (MoAI)
15.00 – 16.30 Meetings NEPS in Yangon
Evening Reviewing documentation
Fr 12/07 All day Reviewing documentation
Sa 13/07 05.30 – 20.00 Field trip to the Ayeyarwady Delta
Su 14/07 All day Reviewing documentation, analyses, preparation
workshop
Evening Meeting with Simon Langbroek, Director CDN
(Consortium of Dutch NGOs)
Mo 15/07 09.00 – 14.00 Workshop 2 at Irrigation Department (MoAI)
15.00 – 16.30 Meeting with WorldFish Project “MyFish”, Department
of Fisheries
Evening Report writing
Tu 16/07 09.00 – 10.00 Wrap up meeting with Dr. Zaw Lwin Tun and Ms. Hla
Oo Nwe
10.00 - 15.00 Report writing
15.00/17.00 Departure from Yangon
We 17/07 Morning Arrival in The Netherlands

Wednesday, 10 July: meeting with Dr. Zaw Lwin Tun

During that meeting the program of the mission has been discussed and finalised. In view of
the long distances, the bad road conditions and the relatively short duration it was decided to
skip the foreseen field trip to Labutta on the second day and to limit the field trip to a one-day
visit to the Pyapon District.

Thursday, 11 July: Workshop 1 at Irrigation Department (MoAI)

The workshop was attended by more than 30 participants from various ministries (Agriculture
and Irrigation, Transport, Livestock and Fisheries, Forestry and Environment, Social Welfare),
NGOs, private consultancies and universities. See attendances list (Annex B).

Opening speech by U Hla Baw

U Hla Baw, Chairperson GWP-SEA Regional Steering Committee, held the opening speech
in which he thanked the GWP, the BOBLME Project and the Myanmar officials for their
support to this important initiative. He underlined the importance of the Ayeyarwady Delta,
one of the most densely populated regions in Myanmar, as the rice bowl of Myanmar. Also
the fishery sector plays a dominant role as main livelihood of the people of the delta. He
referred also to the devastating impacts of Cyclone Nargis on 2nd and 3rd of May 2008, most
severe in the Ayeyarwady and Yangon Regions. The balance of the sudden upsurge of sea
level caused many casualties (70,000 people died and 50,000 people missing), and
enormous damage to polders and embankments. He stated that climate change is likely to

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increase the risks of flooding and droughts. Therefore, adapting to climate change is essential
for delta regions.

Major activities still have to be undertaken: reconstruction and rehabilitation of embankments,

sluice gates, drainage canals as well as the construction of drinking water ponds. “With the
hope of the new Myanmar Government policy, I do hope that the aforementioned activities
will start up in the near future, and I fully believe that the assessment of the vulnerability and
resilience of the Ayeyarwady Delta will provide a baseline for further assessment”. He
concluded with expressing the hope that “our cooperation and coordination activities will be
sustained for a longer time and could contribute to the development of the Ayeyarwady Delta
and the livelihood of the local community in the region”.

Presentations
Subsequently, a number of presentations have been given. Mr. Wim van Driel started with a
presentation of the Delta Alliance, a global network for the resilience of deltas.

Mr. Tjitte Nauta followed with a presentation on the methodology applied for the Delta
Alliance “Comparative assessment of the vulnerability and resilience of 10 deltas”. The
assessments results in a comparative score card on resilience, an inventory of research gaps
and an overview of adaptation measures for each of the deltas. The same methodology and
expected results apply also for the assessment of the Ayeyarwady Delta.

Next, all the department and organisations present were invited to give a presentation on how
they could contribute with expertise, data and documentation to the assessment. Most of
them had prepared a power point presentation; others gave an oral presentation, all very
informative.

Discussions
The presentations were followed by a very lively exchange of information on the availability of
documentation and a number of studies, mainly originating from the seventies and eighties.
The discussions elucidated also on a number of problems: lack of (particularly recent) data
and studies, vulnerability against flooding, necessary reconstruction of infrastructure, salinity
intrusion, overfishing, natural resource degradation, destruction of mangroves, poor livelihood
of the rural communities, threats to drinking water supply (salinity and arsenic), water
pollution, public health, lack of research grants, scattered data,

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At the end of the workshop it was concluded that the field trip to the Pyapon District should
take place on Saturday.

Thursday, 11 July: meeting with NEPS (National Engineering and Planning Services)
Meeting with Aye Myint, Aung Kyaw Zan, Myint Sann, Khin Khin Cho and Khin Latt.
NEPS is a consultancy firm with 13 engineers retired from governmental services, mainly
from the Irrigation Department. Having been involved in many studies and implementation
projects in the past, they represent a wealth of knowledge on the Ayeyarwady Delta. From
that perspective NEPS is very able and willing to contribute to actual assessment later this
year. Also after the meeting NEPS has provided the mission delegation with a number of very
relevant and useful documents.

Saturday, 13 July: Field trip to the Ayeyarwady Delta

Nearly 20 people participated in the fieldtrip to the Pyapon District, which was very well
organised by the Irrigation Department. A first presentation was given during a stop at the
bridge across the Toe River near Dedaye at the border of the Pyapon District. A second more
comprehensive power point presentation on the Pyapon District was given at the Irrigation
District office in Pyapon Town. During the discussion more information was collected on the
rice cropping system, yields and prices and on farm sizes etc. The field trip continued to the
village of Wegyi, southwest of Pyapon where a reconstructed embankment of the WB Paddy
Phase 1 project was visited, followed by a boat trip to a recently rehabilitated sluice gate and
dredged drainage canal and outflow of the same polder. After a lunch at the district office the
return trip went through Ma-ubin and Twante Canal area (with extensive areas of fish ponds)
to Yangon. The field trip provided the mission delegation with a lot of information and insights
on the functioning of the delta. The mission delegation appreciated the enthusiastic
atmosphere and the commitment of the participants.

Monday, 15 July: Workshop 2 at Irrigation Department

The workshop was held with the participation of the Deputy Director General of the Irrigation
Department, U Tint Zaw, and GWP-SEA Chair U Hla Baw. The aim of this second workshop
was to share and discuss with the approximately 25 participants (see Annex B for list of
participants) the preliminary findings of the mission delegation. Most of them had also
participated in the first workshop and in the fieldtrip. Also the follow up activities were
discussed.

Analysis of the most important drivers, pressures/impacts and possible responses

In line with the methodology of the vulnerability assessment the mission delegation has
presented its findings mainly in a table with potential drivers of change, pressures, impacts
and (possible) responses. During the workshop this table has been discussed extensively,
which has given quite some additional information and insights.

Discussion on the finalisation of this scoping mission

For the finalisation of the scoping mission report the participants were invited to send as
much information to the mission delegates as possible. The draft report will be ready by 26
August, 2013 and will be send to Dr. Zaw Lwin Tun to be distributed to the participants of the
workshops for comments, review and additions. After having received the comments the
mission delegation will finalise the report by the end of August.

The mission delegation intends to realise the actual assessment in October and November,
but that will largely depend on the appreciation of the scoping mission report by GWP and the
BOBLME Project and their funding possibilities for the second phase of the project. It was

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concluded that the vulnerability assessment would give more insights if the delta would be
subdivided in a number of regions.

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Discussion on a proposal for a pilot project to be included in the GWP-Delta Alliance “Global
Program of Action on Deltas”
GWP and Delta Alliance are currently developing a joint “Global Program of Action on Deltas”
which consists of 4 components: The Global Program will essentially be based around four
work packages as follows:

x Work Package 1: Capacity Development - facilitating structured learning and information

sharing among stakeholders.
x Work Package 2: Demonstration Projects - developing and implementing pilot activities in
specific deltas.
x Work Package 3: Knowledge and Awareness -developing a framework that would guide
the management and sustainable development of delta’s worldwide.
x Work Package 4: Governance and Fundraising - Build internal capacity of partners and
enhance regional/country level partnerships’ key competencies in fund raising, project
coordination, financial management, stakeholder engagement, monitoring and evaluation.

The Global Program will be launched during the Stockholm World Water Week. Myanmar is
asked to participate in this Global Program, amongst others by proposing a
demonstration/pilot project for Work Package 2.
During the discussion the following subjects for a proposal have been mentioned:

x Salinity intrusion- drinking water supply

x Salinity intrusion – adaptive water management for agriculture, fisheries and nature
x Adaptive flood management – plan approach
x Coastal defence- building with nature
x Set up early coastal/flood warning system
x Water allocation modelling
x Water quality baseline
x Asset management program
x Study on the implementation of new irrigation polders
x Stakeholder participation in delta planning
No final decision has been taken on the subject to propose.

Monday, 15 July: Meeting with WorldFish Project “MyFish”, Department of Fisheries

Meeting with Mr. Gareth Johnstone (Project Director MyFish, WorldFish Center), Ms. Yumiko
Kura (Regional Program Manager, Greater Mekong Region, WorldFish) and U Khin Maung
Soe (National Project Advisor MyFish).
Information on the Delta Alliance, the intended vulnerability assessment of the Ayeyarwady
Delta and the objectives and activities of the MyFish Project were mutually exchanged and
possibilities for cooperation were discussed.
The MyFish Project is mainly focussing on a sector wide, participatory approach of the inland
fisheries and aquaculture. Their 1st objective is to study the characteristics of the fisheries: to
define the status and a baseline by making use of existing data and ground truthing. A well-
functioning GIS system and database would be very helpful for that purpose, but is non-
existing in Myanmar. They have observed a decline in fish stocks, most likely due to
overfishing and a lack of connectivity due to the construction of dams, embankments and
sluices. The MyFish Project is working with 7 universities: 4 in Yangon and 3 in the delta.
They are performing a small scale survey on livelihood through the Department of Fisheries.

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They know the BOBLME well, but there is for the time being limited cooperation between the
two projects. BOBLME focusses more on the marine ecosystem while MyFish is mainly
looking at the inland fishery sector.

Conclusion: i) the MyFish team showed great interest in cooperating with and participating in
the vulnerability assessment; ii) they offered to review the draft report of the scoping mission;
iii) we will keep exchanging information; iv) they will nominate a member for the assessment
team.

Tuesday, 16 July: Wrap up meeting with Dr. Zaw Lwin Tun and Ms. Hla Oo Nwe
Satisfaction was expressed from both sides on the very effective and efficient organisation of
the mission. The finalisation of the scoping mission was confirmed as mentioned above. Dr.
Zaw will send additional information and maps on the districts in the Ayeyarwady Delta. The
mission delegates will send the draft mission report to Dr. Zaw for further distribution among
the participants of the workshops and the MyFish project requesting them to review the
report.
For the 2nd phase it was discussed that a selective team of maximum of 4 or 5 people should
actively participate in the actual vulnerability assessment for 2 to 3 weeks. They should
preferably represent several disciplines and organisations: ministerial departments, NGO’s
(e.g. FREDA), Private sector (e.g. NEPS), MyFish Project.
It was also discussed that, if sufficient funds are available, the delta should be subdivided in
four distinct areas, each of them receiving its own assessment: lower delta, middle delta,
upper delta and Yangon Region.
During the 2nd phase the mission will also visit the Pathein-Labutta Districts.
The mission delegation will, in line with the current development of the Global Program of
Action on Deltas, in Consultation with GWP and in complementarity with the proposals
coming from other deltas, propose a subject for further elaboration into a proposal for the
Global Program.

Finalisation Phase
Steps for the finalisation of the scoping mission:
25 July Draft report will be sent to Dr. Zaw for review by participants of workshops
and field visit
15 August Deadline for sending comments on the draft report
1 September Presentation of the Myanmar case by U Hla Baw during the Stockholm World
Water Week in the Source to Sea session
10 September Final report will be send to Myanmar and to GWP and the BOBLME Project

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