September 2024

Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

Gonzales Poll
 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

Table of Contents
Background and Methodology .................................................................................... 3

Synopsis ............................................................................................................................ 4

Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide Results .............................................. 6

Appendix A: Data Tables – Frequencies & Crosstabs ......................................... 13

QUESTION: President Biden Job Approval ........................................................... 13
QUESTION: Former President Trump Job Approval ............................................ 16
QUESTION: Vice-President Harris Job Approval ................................................. 19
QUESTION: Governor Moore Job Approval .......................................................... 22
QUESTION: Direction of Country .......................................................................... 25
QUESTION: 2024 Presidential Election ................................................................ 27
Presidential Election by Direction of Country ............................................ 29
QUESTION: RFK, Jr. Endorsement .......................................................................30
Presidential Election by Impact of RFK, Jr. Endorsement ..................... 32
QUESTION: Improving Transportation Infrastructure ......................................... 33
QUESTION: Juvenile Justice Reform .................................................................... 36
Democrats – Juvenile Justice Reform by Race .......................................... 38
African Americans – Juvenile Justice Reform by Gender....................... 39

Appendix B: Maryland Poll Sample Demographics ............................................ 40

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

Background and Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated magna cum laude from the University of

Baltimore with a degree in political science.

His career in the field of public opinion research began in the mid-1980s as an
analyst with Mason-Dixon Opinion Research. During this time, Mr. Gonzales
helped develop, craft and implement election surveys and exit polls for television
and radio in the Baltimore-Washington D.C. metro area.

Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed thousands of elections in Maryland and
across the country over the past forty years. Further, he and his associates have
conducted numerous market research projects, crafting message development
plans and generating strategy blueprints for businesses and organizations
throughout the state.

Over his decades of conducting public opinion polls, Patrick Gonzales has been
widely recognized by his peers for his ability to conduct unbiased surveys, and
analyze the results in an impartial, evenhanded manner.

Mr. Gonzales appears frequently on radio and television in the Baltimore-D.C.

region as a guest commentator. Currently, his “Politics With Patrick” segment
appears on WBAL’s C4 & Bryan Nehman Show every Wednesday morning at
7:30 am.

This poll was conducted by Gonzales Research & Media Services, Inc.
from August 24th through August 30th, 2024. A total of 820 registered voters in
Maryland, who indicated they are likely to vote in the 2024 general election,
were queried by live telephone interviews, utilizing both landline and cell phone
numbers. A cross-section of interviews was conducted throughout the state,
reflecting general election voting patterns.

The margin of error (MOE), per accepted statistical standards, is a range of plus
or minus 3.5 percentage points. If the entire population was surveyed, there is
a 95% probability that the true numbers would fall within this range.

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

Synopsis
“The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high
and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it.”
Michelangelo

Exactly nine weeks until Election Day in America, with the excitement and energy
generated by the 2 Parties’ summer conventions now being tempered by concern
over enough supplies in the backpack for another school year and beer in the
fridge for a 17-week season…and playoffs, of course.

Democrat Kamala Harris has seen a boost in her approval numbers here in
Maryland since our poll in February. Statewide, 55% approve of the job Vice-
President Harris is doing, compared to 37% who disapprove. Her approval ratio
today is 19-points ahead of the 46%-47% job rating she had eight months ago.

Former President Donald Trump has a 57% disapproval rating for the job he did
in the White House, while 42% approve. Being underwater with voters is
something no politician wants, but this is blue Maryland, after all, and Trump’s
approval rating today is 8-points better than the 38%-61% number he had in the
winter.

Statewide, if the election for president were held today, 56% would vote for Vice-
President Harris, 35% would vote for former president Trump, and 9% are
undecided. The party split is as expected: 84% of Democrats support the
Kamala Harris/Tim Walz ticket, while 80% of Republicans support the Donald
Trump/JD Vance ticket.

Among independents, the Harris/Walz ticket is up by only 2 points, 38% to 36%.

This, coupled with the fact that the Democrat’s 21-point margin in Maryland
today is identical to the 21-point margin Joe Biden had over Trump in February
are cautionary signs.

Governor Wes Moore comes out of the convention in Chicago with a head of
steam. Statewide, 64% approve of the job Moore is doing as governor, while 24%
disapprove, with 12% not yet providing an opinion.

By party, 82% of Democrats, 52% of unaffiliated voters, and 35% of Republicans

say they approve of the job Wes Moore is doing as governor. Admittedly, it’s

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

mostly soft approval (7% “strongly” approve and 28% “somewhat” approve), but
35% percent approval for Moore among Republicans is a number any Democratic
officeholder would gladly take.

Moore’s 40-point positive job rating (64%-24%) is a 33-percent bump since this
past winter. No Democratic governor in Maryland has had approval in the mid-
60s since William Donald Schafer’s first term in office nearly 40 years ago.

An overwhelming 95% of Marylanders think that it is important for the State to

invest in improving its transportation infrastructure…61% “very” important and
34% “somewhat” important.

The debate on how parents and society can best raise and instill in its youth traits
and strength necessary to become productive, contented adults is as old as time
itself. Accordingly, we asked Maryland voters if, to better help our children under
18 who commit crimes, they prefer laws that are strict, holding these juveniles
responsible and accountable for their behavior…or laws that are lenient,
recognizing that society is responsible for much of juvenile offender’s unhealthy
behavior.

Overall in Maryland, 58% favor laws that are strict, which hold juveniles
responsible and accountable for their behavior, while only 34% desire laws that
are lenient. A majority of nearly every demographic group backs strict laws to
inspire a sense of personal responsibility and to best assist our juvenile offenders
ultimately realize at least a chance at a successful, happy life.

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide Results

President Joe Biden Job Approval

Among Maryland voters, 53% approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as president (34%
“strongly” approve and 19% “somewhat” approve), while 45% disapprove of the job he’s
doing (36% “strongly” disapprove and 9% “somewhat” disapprove), with 2% offering no
opinion.

By party, 76% of Democrats approve of the job President Biden is doing, while 84% of
Republicans disapprove. Among independents, 40% approve and 58% disapprove.

President Biden Job Approval Approve Disapprove

Statewide 53% 45%
Democrat 76% 20%
Republican 14% 84%
Independent 40% 58%

White 41% 58%

African-American 76% 21%

Women 55% 41%

Men 51% 48%

Vice-President Kamala Harris Job Approval

Vice-President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’s approval rating in the Free
State has improved since our poll in February. Statewide, 55% approve of the job Harris
is doing as vice-president (43% “strongly” approve and 12% “somewhat” approve),
compared to 37% who disapprove of the job she is doing (31% “strongly” disapprove and
6% “somewhat” disapprove), with 8% giving no response.

Her overall approval ratio today, 55%-37%, is 19 points ahead of the 46%-47% job rating
she had eight months ago in Maryland.

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

By party, 81% of Democrats approve of the job Vice-President Harris is doing, while
84% of Republicans disapprove. Among independents, 44% approve and 44%
disapprove.

Vice-President Harris Job Approval Approve Disapprove

Statewide 55% 37%
Democrat 81% 12%
Republican 10% 84%
Independent 44% 44%

White 39% 53%

African-American 84% 8%

Women 60% 33%

Men 50% 42%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

Former President Donald Trump Approval

Among voters statewide, 42% approve of the job Former President Donald Trump did as
president (33% “strongly” approve and 9% “somewhat” approve), while 57% disapprove
of the job he did (53% “strongly” disapprove and 4% “somewhat” disapprove). By party,
86% of Republicans approve of the job Donald Trump did while in office, contrasted
against the 82% of Democrats who disapprove. Among independents, 49% approve of
the job Trump did as president, and a like 49% disapprove.

President Trump Job Approval Approve Disapprove

Statewide 42% 57%
Democrat 17% 82%
Republican 86% 13%
Independent 49% 49%

White 54% 45%

African-American 17% 81%

Women 37% 62%

Men 47% 52%

2024 Presidential Election

Nine weeks until Election Day. In Maryland today, 56% of voters say they would vote
for the Democratic ticket of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, while 35% state they’d vote
for the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and JD Vance, with 9% undecided. By party,
84% of Democrats support the Harris/Walz ticket, while 80% of Republicans back the
Trump/Vance ticket. Among independents, 38% favor Harris/Walz and 36% prefer
Trump/Vance.

President Election Harris/Walz Trump/Vance Undecided

Statewide 56% 35% 9%
Democrat 84% 13% 2%
Republican 10% 80% 9%
Independent 38% 36% 26%

White 41% 48% 11%

African-American 83% 11% 6%

Women 60% 32% 8%

Men 51% 38% 11%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

Direction of Country

The mood of voters in Maryland vis-à-vis how they perceive things overall going in the
country is a tad less grumpy than it was in winter.

Statewide, 50% today say things in the country are moving in the right direction, while
45% say things are moving in the wrong direction. In February, only 41% said right
direction and 54% said things were off the tracks.

By party, 71% of Democrats say things are moving in the right direction, while 82% of
Republicans feel like things are moving in the wrong direction. Among unaffiliated
voters, 41% say right direction and 54% say wrong direction.

Direction of Country Right Direction Wrong Direction

Statewide 50% 45%
Democrat 71% 24%
Republican 14% 82%
Independent 41% 54%

White 38% 60%

African-American 73% 19%

Women 54% 41%

Men 47% 49%

Direction of Country by 2024 Election

The reason politicos and pundits follow the Right Direction/Wrong Track question so
closely is illustrated here…

• 93% of Maryland voters who think the country is moving in the right direction are
voting for the Harris/Walz ticket,

• 70% of voters who think the country is moving in the wrong direction are voting for
the Trump/Vance ticket.

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

Governor Wes Moore Job Approval

Wes Moore is one pol headin’ north comin’ outta the Windy City. Among Old Line
voters, 64% approve (up 6) of the job he is doing as governor (39% “strongly” approve
(up 11) and 25% “somewhat” approve), while 24% disapprove of the job he’s doing (15%
“strongly” disapprove and 9% “somewhat” disapprove), with 12% providing no answer.

Governor Moore Job Approval Approve Disapprove

Statewide 64% 24%
Democrat 82% 8%
Republican 35% 48%
Independent 52% 39%

White 51% 38%

African-American 88% 2%

Women 66% 22%

Men 61% 28%

Moore’s 40-point positive job rating (64%-24%) is a 33-percent bump since winter.

Granted, it’s mostly “soft” approval, but 35% percent approval for Moore among the
loyal opposition GOP electorate is a number any Dem officeholder would happily take.

Transportation Infrastructure Funding in Maryland

An overwhelming 95% of Marylanders think that it is important for the State to invest in
improving its transportation infrastructure…61% say it’s “very” important and 34% say
it is “somewhat” important to invest in transportation.

Transportation Funding Important Not Important

Statewide 95% 5%
Democrat 99% 1%
Republican 85% 15%
Independent 99% 1%

White 93% 7%
African-American 99% 1%

Women 95% 5%
Men 95% 5%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

Juvenile Justice Reform

The debate on how best to raise and teach our children to become productive, happy
adults is as old as time itself. We’re nearly 200 years removed from the days of Oliver
Twist and 75 years from The Common Sense Book of Baby and Child Care, Benjamin
Spock’s tome advocating ideas about child rearing initially considered out of the
mainstream, but, which over time, brought about major changes in parenting.

We’ve come a long way, but we’ve still a long way to go.

Accordingly, we asked voters the following: “What type of laws, in your opinion,
ultimately better help our children under 18 who commit crimes - Laws that are strict,
which include things such as juvenile detention and boot camps. This hold individuals
responsible and accountable for their behavior; or Laws that are lenient, which
include social programs and counseling. This recognizes that society is responsible for
much of this behavior?”

Overall in Maryland, 58% favor laws that are strict, which hold juveniles responsible and
accountable for their behavior, while 34% desire laws that are lenient, determining that
society is at fault for much of the objectionable behavior of juveniles, with 8% providing
no response.

A majority of nearly every demographic group backs strict laws to best assist our
juvenile offenders ultimately realize at least a chance at a successful, happy life.

Best Approach to Help Our Kids Strict Laws Lenient Laws

Statewide 58% 34%
Democrat 52% 43%
Republican 82% 12%
Independent 45% 39%

White 57% 33%

African-American 63% 37%

Women 49% 43%

Men 69% 24%
18-34 54% 40%
35-49 53% 41%
50-64 65% 26%
65 and older 58% 34%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

There is a glaring disagreement between Black and White Democrats:

• 57% of white Democrats favor lenient laws to deal with juveniles who’ve committed
crimes

• 63% of black Democrats favor strict laws to deal with juveniles who’ve committed
crimes

And among African Americans, there is a bright difference by gender:

• 47% of African American women favor lenient laws to deal with juveniles who’ve
committed crimes

• 79% of African American men favor strict laws to deal with juveniles who’ve
committed crimes

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

Appendix A: Data Tables – Frequencies & Crosstabs

QUESTION: President Biden Job Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Joe Biden is doing as President?

JOB APPROVAL: JOE BIDEN Number Percent

Approve 435 53.0 %
Disapprove 364 44.4 %
No answer 21 2.6 %
Total 820 100.0 %
Is that strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove
BIDEN APPROVAL - INTENSITY Number Percent
Strongly approve 276 33.7 %
Somewhat approve 159 19.4 %
Somewhat disapprove 71 8.7 %
Strongly disapprove 293 35.7 %
No answer 21 2.6 %
Total 820 100.0 %

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: JOE BIDEN

Approve Disapprove No answer

RESULTS

Statewide 435 364 21

53.0% 44.4% 2.6%

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: JOE BIDEN

Approve Disapprove No answer

PARTY REGISTRATION

Democrat 338 90 15
76.3% 20.3% 3.4%

Republican 31 180 3
14.5% 84.1% 1.4%

Unaffiliated 66 94 3
40.5% 57.7% 1.8%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: JOE BIDEN

Approve Disapprove No answer

RACE/ETHNICITY

White 190 269 9

40.6% 57.5% 1.9%

African 187 51 9
American 75.7% 20.6% 3.6%

Other/No 58 44 3
answer 55.2% 41.9% 2.9%

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: JOE BIDEN

Approve Disapprove No answer

AGE

18 to 34 80 53 6
57.6% 38.1% 4.3%

35 to 49 114 72 8
58.8% 37.1% 4.1%

50 to 64 121 136 4
46.4% 52.1% 1.5%

65 and older 120 103 3

53.1% 45.6% 1.3%

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: JOE BIDEN

Approve Disapprove No answer

GENDER

Female 240 180 15

55.2% 41.4% 3.4%

Male 195 184 6

50.6% 47.8% 1.6%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: JOE BIDEN

Approve Disapprove No answer

REGION

East Shore 38 52 1
41.8% 57.1% 1.1%

Baltimore 45 19 3
City 67.2% 28.4% 4.5%

Baltimore 130 148 7

Suburbs 45.6% 51.9% 2.5%

Washington 185 84 9
Suburbs 66.5% 30.2% 3.2%

Western 37 61 1
Maryland 37.4% 61.6% 1.0%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

QUESTION: Former President Trump Job Approval Do you approve or disapprove of

the job Donald Trump did as President?
JOB APPROVAL: DONALD TRUMP Number Percent
Approve 340 41.5 %
Disapprove 471 57.4 %
No answer 9 1.1 %
Total 820 100.0 %
Is that strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove
DONALD TRUMP APPROVAL - INTENSITY Number Percent
Strongly approve 268 32.7 %
Somewhat approve 72 8.8 %
Somewhat disapprove 36 4.4 %
Strongly disapprove 435 53.0 %
No answer 9 1.1 %
Total 820 100.0 %

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: DONALD TRUMP

Approve Disapprove No answer

RESULTS

Statewide 340 471 9

41.5% 57.4% 1.1%

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: DONALD TRUMP

Approve Disapprove No answer

PARTY REGISTRATION

Democrat 77 363 3
17.4% 81.9% 0.7%

Republican 184 28 2
86.0% 13.1% 0.9%

Unaffiliated 79 80 4
48.5% 49.1% 2.5%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: DONALD TRUMP

Approve Disapprove No answer

RACE/ETHNICITY

White 254 209 5

54.3% 44.7% 1.1%

African 42 201 4
American 17.0% 81.4% 1.6%

Other/No 44 61 0
answer 41.9% 58.1% 0.0%

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: DONALD TRUMP

Approve Disapprove No answer

AGE

18 to 34 51 87 1
36.7% 62.6% 0.7%

35 to 49 72 121 1
37.1% 62.4% 0.5%

50 to 64 122 134 5
46.7% 51.3% 1.9%

65 and older 95 129 2

42.0% 57.1% 0.9%

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: DONALD TRUMP

Approve Disapprove No answer

GENDER

Female 159 270 6

36.6% 62.1% 1.4%

Male 181 201 3

47.0% 52.2% 0.8%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: DONALD TRUMP

Approve Disapprove No answer

REGION

East Shore 52 37 2
57.1% 40.7% 2.2%

Baltimore 19 47 1
City 28.4% 70.1% 1.5%

Baltimore 141 143 1

Suburbs 49.5% 50.2% 0.4%

Washington 76 199 3
Suburbs 27.3% 71.6% 1.1%

Western 52 45 2
Maryland 52.5% 45.5% 2.0%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

QUESTION: Vice-President Harris Job Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the

job Kamala Harris is doing as Vice-President?

JOB APPROVAL: KAMALA HARRIS Number Percent

Approve 453 55.2 %
Disapprove 303 37.0 %
No answer 64 7.8 %
Total 820 100.0 %
Is that strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove
KAMALA HARRIS APPROVAL - INTENSITY Number Percent
Strongly approve 351 42.8 %
Somewhat approve 102 12.4 %
Somewhat disapprove 50 6.1 %
Strongly disapprove 253 30.9 %
No answer 64 7.8 %
Total 820 100.0 %

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: KAMALA HARRIS

Approve Disapprove No answer

RESULTS

Statewide 453 303 64

55.2% 37.0% 7.8%

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: KAMALA HARRIS

Approve Disapprove No answer

PARTY REGISTRATION

Democrat 360 52 31
81.3% 11.7% 7.0%

Republican 22 180 12
10.3% 84.1% 5.6%

Unaffiliated 71 71 21
43.6% 43.6% 12.9%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: KAMALA HARRIS

Approve Disapprove No answer

RACE/ETHNICITY

White 184 247 37

39.3% 52.8% 7.9%

African 208 19 20
American 84.2% 7.7% 8.1%

Other/No 61 37 7
answer 58.1% 35.2% 6.7%

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: KAMALA HARRIS

Approve Disapprove No answer

AGE

18 to 34 81 48 10
58.3% 34.5% 7.2%

35 to 49 116 59 19
59.8% 30.4% 9.8%

50 to 64 130 113 18
49.8% 43.3% 6.9%

65 and older 126 83 17

55.8% 36.7% 7.5%

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: KAMALA HARRIS

Approve Disapprove No answer

GENDER

Female 260 143 32

59.8% 32.9% 7.4%

Male 193 160 32

50.1% 41.6% 8.3%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: KAMALA HARRIS

Approve Disapprove No answer

REGION

East Shore 37 47 7
40.7% 51.6% 7.7%

Baltimore 44 16 7
City 65.7% 23.9% 10.4%

Baltimore 144 122 19

Suburbs 50.5% 42.8% 6.7%

Washington 196 61 21
Suburbs 70.5% 21.9% 7.6%

Western 32 57 10
Maryland 32.3% 57.6% 10.1%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

QUESTION: Governor Moore Job Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Wes Moore is doing as Governor?

JOB APPROVAL: WES MOORE Number Percent

Approve 522 63.7 %
Disapprove 202 24.6 %
No answer 96 11.7 %
Total 820 100.0 %
Is that strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove
WES MOORE APPROVAL - INTENSITY Number Percent
Strongly approve 317 38.7 %
Somewhat approve 205 25.0 %
Somewhat disapprove 79 9.6 %
Strongly disapprove 123 15.0 %
No answer 96 11.7 %
Total 820 100.0 %

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: WES MOORE

Approve Disapprove No answer

RESULTS

Statewide 522 202 96

63.7% 24.6% 11.7%

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: WES MOORE

Approve Disapprove No answer

PARTY REGISTRATION

Democrat 362 36 45
81.7% 8.1% 10.2%

Republican 76 102 36
35.5% 47.7% 16.8%

Unaffiliated 84 64 15
51.5% 39.3% 9.2%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: WES MOORE

Approve Disapprove No answer

RACE/ETHNICITY

White 237 176 55

50.6% 37.6% 11.8%

African 217 5 25
American 87.9% 2.0% 10.1%

Other/No 68 21 16
answer 64.8% 20.0% 15.2%

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: WES MOORE

Approve Disapprove No answer

AGE

18 to 34 90 35 14
64.7% 25.2% 10.1%

35 to 49 124 39 31
63.9% 20.1% 16.0%

50 to 64 158 79 24
60.5% 30.3% 9.2%

65 and older 150 49 27

66.4% 21.7% 11.9%

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: WES MOORE

Approve Disapprove No answer

GENDER

Female 287 96 52
66.0% 22.1% 12.0%

Male 235 106 44

61.0% 27.5% 11.4%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

N=820 JOB APPROVAL: WES MOORE

Approve Disapprove No answer

REGION

East Shore 49 27 15
53.8% 29.7% 16.5%

Baltimore 53 10 4
City 79.1% 14.9% 6.0%

Baltimore 173 77 35
Suburbs 60.7% 27.0% 12.3%

Washington 197 50 31
Suburbs 70.9% 18.0% 11.2%

Western 50 38 11
Maryland 50.5% 38.4% 11.1%

Moore Approval by Party Intensity

N=820 WES MOORE APPROVAL - INTENSITY

Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly
approve approve disapprove disapprove No answer

PARTY REGISTRATION

Democrat 275 87 7 29 45
62.1% 19.6% 1.6% 6.5% 10.2%

Republican 16 60 45 57 36
7.5% 28.0% 21.0% 26.6% 16.8%

Unaffiliated 26 58 27 37 15
16.0% 35.6% 16.6% 22.7% 9.2%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

QUESTION: Direction of Country Overall, would you say things in the country are
moving in the right direction or moving in the wrong direction?

DIRECTION OF COUNTRY Number Percent

Right direction 413 50.4 %
Wrong direction 368 44.9 %
No answer 39 4.8 %
Total 820 100.0 %

N=820 DIRECTION OF COUNTRY

Right direction Wrong direction No answer

RESULTS

Statewide 413 368 39

50.4% 44.9% 4.8%

N=820 DIRECTION OF COUNTRY

Right direction Wrong direction No answer

PARTY REGISTRATION

Democrat 316 104 23

71.3% 23.5% 5.2%

Republican 30 176 8
14.0% 82.2% 3.7%

Unaffiliated 67 88 8
41.1% 54.0% 4.9%

N=820 DIRECTION OF COUNTRY

Right direction Wrong direction No answer

RACE/ETHNICITY

White 176 280 12

37.6% 59.8% 2.6%

African 179 48 20
American 72.5% 19.4% 8.1%

Other/No 58 40 7
answer 55.2% 38.1% 6.7%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

N=820 DIRECTION OF COUNTRY

Right direction Wrong direction No answer

AGE

18 to 34 72 63 4
51.8% 45.3% 2.9%

35 to 49 110 72 12
56.7% 37.1% 6.2%

50 to 64 117 134 10
44.8% 51.3% 3.8%

65 and older 114 99 13

50.4% 43.8% 5.8%

N=820 DIRECTION OF COUNTRY

Right direction Wrong direction No answer

GENDER

Female 234 179 22

53.8% 41.1% 5.1%

Male 179 189 17

46.5% 49.1% 4.4%

N=820 DIRECTION OF COUNTRY

Right direction Wrong direction No answer

REGION

East Shore 33 55 3
36.3% 60.4% 3.3%

Baltimore 38 23 6
City 56.7% 34.3% 9.0%

Baltimore 135 138 12

Suburbs 47.4% 48.4% 4.2%

Washington 177 87 14
Suburbs 63.7% 31.3% 5.0%

Western 30 65 4
Maryland 30.3% 65.7% 4.0%

pg. 26 Embargoed until 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, September 3, 2024

 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

QUESTION: 2024 Presidential Election If the 2024 election were held today, for
whom would you vote for president: the Democratic ticket of Kamala Harris and Tim
Walz or the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and JD Vance?
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Number Percent
Harris/Walz 456 55.6 %
Trump/Vance 286 34.9 %
Undecided 78 9.5 %
Total 820 100.0 %

N=820 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Harris/Walz Trump/Vance Undecided

RESULTS

Statewide 456 286 78

55.6% 34.9% 9.5%

N=820 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Harris/Walz Trump/Vance Undecided

PARTY REGISTRATION

Democrat 372 56 15
84.0% 12.6% 3.4%

Republican 22 172 20
10.3% 80.4% 9.3%

Unaffiliated 62 58 43
38.0% 35.6% 26.4%

N=820 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Harris/Walz Trump/Vance Undecided

RACE/ETHNICITY

White 192 226 50

41.0% 48.3% 10.7%

African 206 27 14
American 83.4% 10.9% 5.7%

Other/No 58 33 14
answer 55.2% 31.4% 13.3%

pg. 27 Embargoed until 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, September 3, 2024

 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

N=820 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Harris/Walz Trump/Vance Undecided

AGE

18 to 34 81 40 18
58.3% 28.8% 12.9%

35 to 49 116 60 18
59.8% 30.9% 9.3%

50 to 64 131 106 24
50.2% 40.6% 9.2%

65 and older 128 80 18

56.6% 35.4% 8.0%

N=820 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Harris/Walz Trump/Vance Undecided

GENDER

Female 259 141 35

59.5% 32.4% 8.0%

Male 197 145 43

51.2% 37.7% 11.2%

N=820 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Harris/Walz Trump/Vance Undecided

REGION

East Shore 36 49 6
39.6% 53.8% 6.6%

Baltimore 46 16 5
City 68.7% 23.9% 7.5%

Baltimore 138 117 30

Suburbs 48.4% 41.1% 10.5%

Washington 199 59 20
Suburbs 71.6% 21.2% 7.2%

Western 37 45 17
Maryland 37.4% 45.5% 17.2%

pg. 28 Embargoed until 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, September 3, 2024

 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

Presidential Election by Direction of Country

N=820 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Harris/Walz Trump/Vance Undecided

DIRECTION OF COUNTRY

Right 382 24 7
direction 92.5% 5.8% 1.7%

Wrong 57 258 53
direction 15.5% 70.1% 14.4%

No answer 17 4 18
43.6% 10.3% 46.2%

93% of voters who say the while 70% of voters who think
country is moving in the right the country is moving in the
direction are voting for wrong direction are voting for
Harris/Walz… Trump/Vance.

pg. 29 Embargoed until 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, September 3, 2024

 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

QUESTION: RFK, Jr. Endorsement Robert F. Kennedy, Junior has suspended his
campaign for president and endorsed Donald Trump. Does this make you more likely
or less likely to vote for Trump, or does it have no effect on your vote?

IMPACT OF RFK, JR. ENDORSEMENT Number Percent

More likely 105 12.8 %
Less likely 109 13.3 %
No effect 606 73.9 %
Total 820 100.0 %
Is that much or somewhat more likely/less likely
ENDORSEMENT IMPACT - INTENSITY Number Percent
Much more likely 85 10.4 %
Somewhat more likely 20 2.4 %
Somewhat less likely 12 1.5 %
Much less likely 97 11.8 %
No effect 606 73.9 %
Total 820 100.0 %

N=820 IMPACT OF RFK, JR. ENDORSEMENT

More likely Less likely No effect

RESULTS

Statewide 105 109 606

12.8% 13.3% 73.9%

N=820 IMPACT OF RFK, JR. ENDORSEMENT

More likely Less likely No effect

PARTY REGISTRATION

Democrat 15 91 337
3.4% 20.5% 76.1%

Republican 61 6 147
28.5% 2.8% 68.7%

Unaffiliated 29 12 122
17.8% 7.4% 74.8%

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 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

N=820 IMPACT OF RFK, JR. ENDORSEMENT

More likely Less likely No effect

RACE/ETHNICITY

White 83 40 345
17.7% 8.5% 73.7%

African 12 57 178
American 4.9% 23.1% 72.1%

Other/No 10 12 83
answer 9.5% 11.4% 79.0%

N=820 IMPACT OF RFK, JR. ENDORSEMENT

More likely Less likely No effect

AGE

18 to 34 15 24 100
10.8% 17.3% 71.9%

35 to 49 28 25 141
14.4% 12.9% 72.7%

50 to 64 38 33 190
14.6% 12.6% 72.8%

65 and older 24 27 175

10.6% 11.9% 77.4%

N=820 IMPACT OF RFK, JR. ENDORSEMENT

More likely Less likely No effect

GENDER

Female 54 60 321
12.4% 13.8% 73.8%

Male 51 49 285
13.2% 12.7% 74.0%

pg. 31 Embargoed until 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, September 3, 2024

 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

N=820 IMPACT OF RFK, JR. ENDORSEMENT

More likely Less likely No effect

REGION

East Shore 12 7 72
13.2% 7.7% 79.1%

Baltimore 6 11 50
City 9.0% 16.4% 74.6%

Baltimore 36 37 212
Suburbs 12.6% 13.0% 74.4%

Washington 32 46 200
Suburbs 11.5% 16.5% 71.9%

Western 19 8 72
Maryland 19.2% 8.1% 72.7%

Presidential Election by Impact of RFK, Jr. Endorsement

N=820 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Harris/Walz Trump/Vance Undecided

IMPACT OF RFK, JR. ENDORSEMENT

More likely 3 80 22
2.9% 76.2% 21.0%

Less likely 91 1 17
83.5% 0.9% 15.6%

No effect 362 205 39

59.7% 33.8% 6.4%

76% of voters who say they are more likely to

vote for President Trump because of RFK, Jr.’s
endorsement are already voting for the
Trump/Vance ticket.

pg. 32 Embargoed until 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, September 3, 2024

 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

QUESTION: Improving Transportation Infrastructure In your opinion, how important

is it for Maryland to invest in improving its transportation infrastructure: very
important, somewhat important, or not important?

TRANSPORTATION - LEVEL OF IMPORTANCE Number Percent

Very important 503 61.3 %
Somewhat important 277 33.8 %
Not important 37 4.5 %
No answer 3 0.4 %
Total 820 100.0 %

TRANSPORTATION - LEVEL OF IMPORTANCE Number Percent

Important 780 95.1 %
Not important/NA 40 4.9 %
Total 820 100.0 %

N=820 TRANSPORTATION - LEVEL OF IMPORTANCE

Somewhat
Very important important Not important No answer

RESULTS

Statewide 503 277 37 3

61.3% 33.8% 4.5% 0.4%

N=820 TRANSPORTATION - LEVEL OF IMPORTANCE

Somewhat
Very important important Not important No answer

PARTY REGISTRATION

Democrat 319 118 5 1

72.0% 26.6% 1.1% 0.2%

Republican 101 80 31 2
47.2% 37.4% 14.5% 0.9%

Unaffiliated 83 79 1 0
50.9% 48.5% 0.6% 0.0%

pg. 33 Embargoed until 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, September 3, 2024

 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

N=820 TRANSPORTATION - LEVEL OF IMPORTANCE

Somewhat
Very important important Not important No answer

RACE/ETHNICITY

White 237 198 31 2

50.6% 42.3% 6.6% 0.4%

African 201 43 2 1
American 81.4% 17.4% 0.8% 0.4%

Other/No 65 36 4 0
answer 61.9% 34.3% 3.8% 0.0%

N=820 TRANSPORTATION - LEVEL OF IMPORTANCE

Somewhat
Very important important Not important No answer

AGE

18 to 34 83 53 3 0
59.7% 38.1% 2.2% 0.0%

35 to 49 117 73 3 1
60.3% 37.6% 1.5% 0.5%

50 to 64 161 82 18 0
61.7% 31.4% 6.9% 0.0%

65 and older 142 69 13 2

62.8% 30.5% 5.8% 0.9%

N=820 TRANSPORTATION - LEVEL OF IMPORTANCE

Somewhat
Very important important Not important No answer

GENDER

Female 227 186 19 3

52.2% 42.8% 4.4% 0.7%

Male 276 91 18 0
71.7% 23.6% 4.7% 0.0%

pg. 34 Embargoed until 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, September 3, 2024

 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

N=820 TRANSPORTATION - LEVEL OF IMPORTANCE

Somewhat
Very important important Not important No answer

REGION

East Shore 55 26 10 0
60.4% 28.6% 11.0% 0.0%

Baltimore 45 20 2 0
City 67.2% 29.9% 3.0% 0.0%

Baltimore 164 106 15 0

Suburbs 57.5% 37.2% 5.3% 0.0%

Washington 186 86 5 1
Suburbs 66.9% 30.9% 1.8% 0.4%

Western 53 39 5 2
Maryland 53.5% 39.4% 5.1% 2.0%

pg. 35 Embargoed until 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, September 3, 2024

 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

QUESTION: Juvenile Justice Reform What type of laws, in your opinion, ultimately
better help our children under 18 who commit crimes? (ORDER ROTATED)

Laws that are strict, which include things such as juvenile detention and boot
camps. This hold individuals responsible and accountable for their behavior,
or,
Laws that are lenient, which include social programs and counseling.
This recognizes that society is responsible for much of this behavior.

STRICT LAWS or LENIENT LAWS Number Percent

Strict laws 478 58.3 %
Lenient laws 280 34.1 %
No answer 62 7.6 %
Total 820 100.0 %

N=820 STRICT LAWS or LENIENT LAWS

Strict laws Lenient laws No answer

RESULTS

Statewide 478 280 62

58.3% 34.1% 7.6%

N=820 STRICT LAWS or LENIENT LAWS

Strict laws Lenient laws No answer

PARTY REGISTRATION

Democrat 229 192 22

51.7% 43.3% 5.0%

Republican 176 25 13
82.2% 11.7% 6.1%

Unaffiliated 73 63 27
44.8% 38.7% 16.6%

pg. 36 Embargoed until 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, September 3, 2024

 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

N=820 STRICT LAWS or LENIENT LAWS

Strict laws Lenient laws No answer

RACE/ETHNICITY

White 266 156 46

56.8% 33.3% 9.8%

African 155 91 1
American 62.8% 36.8% 0.4%

Other/No 57 33 15
answer 54.3% 31.4% 14.3%

N=820 STRICT LAWS or LENIENT LAWS

Strict laws Lenient laws No answer

AGE

18 to 34 75 56 8
54.0% 40.3% 5.8%

35 to 49 103 79 12
53.1% 40.7% 6.2%

50 to 64 169 69 23
64.8% 26.4% 8.8%

65 and older 131 76 19

58.0% 33.6% 8.4%

N=820 STRICT LAWS or LENIENT LAWS

Strict laws Lenient laws No answer

GENDER

Female 212 186 37

48.7% 42.8% 8.5%

Male 266 94 25
69.1% 24.4% 6.5%

pg. 37 Embargoed until 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, September 3, 2024

 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

N=820 STRICT LAWS or LENIENT LAWS

Strict laws Lenient laws No answer

REGION

East Shore 60 24 7
65.9% 26.4% 7.7%

Baltimore 45 19 3
City 67.2% 28.4% 4.5%

Baltimore 172 89 24
Suburbs 60.4% 31.2% 8.4%

Washington 140 117 21

Suburbs 50.4% 42.1% 7.6%

Western 61 31 7
Maryland 61.6% 31.3% 7.1%

Democrats – Juvenile Justice Reform by Race

N=443 STRICT LAWS or LENIENT LAWS

Strict laws Lenient laws No answer

RACE/ETHNICITY

White 61 98 14
35.3% 56.6% 8.1%

African 137 79 1
American 63.1% 36.4% 0.5%

Other/No 31 15 7
answer 58.5% 28.3% 13.2%

63% of black Democrats support

while 57% of white Democrats
strict laws to better help our youth
favor lenient laws.
under 18 who commit crimes…

pg. 38 Embargoed until 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, September 3, 2024

 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

African Americans – Juvenile Justice Reform by Gender

N=247 STRICT LAWS or LENIENT LAWS
Strict laws Lenient laws No answer

GENDER

Female 83 73 0
53.2% 46.8% 0.0%

Male 72 18 1
79.1% 19.8% 1.1%

79% of black male voters support

while 47% of African American
strict laws to better help our youth
women espouse lenient laws.
under 18 who commit crimes…

pg. 39 Embargoed until 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, September 3, 2024

 Gonzales Poll, Part 1 - Maryland Statewide

Appendix B: Maryland Poll Sample Demographics

AGE Number Percent

18 to 34 139 17.0 %
35 to 49 194 23.7 %
50 to 64 261 31.8 %
65 and older 226 27.6 %
Total 820 100.0 %

PARTY REGISTRATION Number Percent

Democrat 443 54.0 %
Republican 214 26.1 %
Unaffiliated 163 19.9 %
Total 820 100.0 %

RACE/ETHNICITY Number Percent

White 468 57.1 %
African American 247 30.1 %
Other/No answer 105 12.8 %
Total 820 100.0 %

GENDER Number Percent

Female 435 53.0 %
Male 385 47.0 %
Total 820 100.0 %

REGION Number Percent

Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland 91 11.1 %
Baltimore City 67 8.2 %
Baltimore Suburbs 285 34.8 %
Washington Suburbs 278 33.9 %
Western Maryland 99 12.1 %
Total 820 100.0 %

Regional Groupings

Eastern Shore/Southern MD – includes Calvert, Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, St.
Mary’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester counties.
Baltimore City – includes Baltimore City.
Baltimore Suburbs – includes Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard counties.
Washington Suburbs – includes Charles, Montgomery, and Prince George’s counties.
Western Maryland – includes Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington counties.

pg. 40 Embargoed until 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, September 3, 2024