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Solar CSP Developers Friends or Foes: Renewable Power Generation Advisory

Renewable Power Generation Advisory ID# RPG 875-080129 Solar CSP Developers. Friends or Foes CSP Today 2008 San Francisco, California 29 January 2008 Reese Tisdale Senior Analyst +1 617 551 8585 Overview Agenda Overview Market Drivers Current Market Status Competitive Strategies Outlook Renewable Power Generation Top 20 Renewable Players 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 MW 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 SHP Solar CSP WTE Co-firing Landfill gas Biogas Biomass Geother

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60 views14 pages

Solar CSP Developers Friends or Foes: Renewable Power Generation Advisory

Renewable Power Generation Advisory ID# RPG 875-080129 Solar CSP Developers. Friends or Foes CSP Today 2008 San Francisco, California 29 January 2008 Reese Tisdale Senior Analyst +1 617 551 8585 Overview Agenda Overview Market Drivers Current Market Status Competitive Strategies Outlook Renewable Power Generation Top 20 Renewable Players 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 MW 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 SHP Solar CSP WTE Co-firing Landfill gas Biogas Biomass Geother

Uploaded by

gayasesha
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Renewable Power Generation Advisory

ID# RPG 875-080129

Solar CSP Developers Friends or Foes


CSP Today 2008 San Francisco, California
29 January 2008 Reese Tisdale Senior Analyst +1 617 551 8585 rtisdale@emerging-energy.com

Overview

Agenda

Overview Market Drivers Current Market Status Competitive Strategies Outlook

Renewable Power Generation Advisory RPG 875-080129

Page 2

Market Drivers

Factors Driving Renewable Energy Investments

Profitability

Feed-in tariffs and tax credits providing modest to strong returns on investments Carbon constraints (Kyoto Protocol, RGGI, etc.) Renewable Energy Standards (ROCs) Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)

Compliance

Energy Security

Political will to reduce price volatility

Green image

Customer acquisition and retention; shareholders

Build-up unique competencies

Building renewables-focused business units with international scope

Renewable Power Generation Advisory RPG 875-080129

Page 3

Market Drivers

Factors Driving Renewable Energy Investments


$12
U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet

Second Launch

$10

Period of Dormancy
$8

Nevada Solar One

$6

Initial Build-out
PS10

$4

Energy Crisis

SEGS V SEGS IV SEGS VII SEGS IX SEGS II

Saguaro

$2
SEGS I

$0 1976 1979 1982 1985

SEGS III SEGS VIII SEGS VI

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

Renewable Power Generation Advisory RPG 875-080129

Page 4

Current Market Status

Renewable Power Generation


Top 20 Renewable Players
4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 MW 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 SHP Solar CSP WTE Co-firing Landfill gas Biogas Biomass Geothermal Wind

Analysis 12 of the top 20 companies are European-based European companies are now investing in US assets Utilities and IPPS are looking beyond wind to bolster portfolios

Source: Utilities, Developers, Emerging Energy Research

Renewable Power Generation Advisory RPG 875-080129

er dr ol a FP E L Ac NE ci L Ba on bc a Sc oc E ot k B DF t is ro h w Po n En wer de sa ED E. P O N Su M C e id he z Am vr er on ic a DO n NG RW E W Va CF he tt e E e l nf a b al ra l Ca tor lp in Eu e ru s

Ib

European utilities and IPPs are taking leadership roles in the renewables sector and increasing role in solar CSP
Page 5

Current Market Status

Concentrating Solar Power Today

Abengoa Solar

MW Ownership, as of YE2006 MW Additions, 2007

Solar Millennium Sunray Energy ACS Cobra Iberdrola

MW Ownership, as of YE2007 MW Additions, 2008 (est.)

Sunray Energy

Acciona Solar
Acciona Solar

FPL Energy

Abengoa Solar FPL Energy

Fortress Investment Group 0 20 40 60 80 100 Net MW Ownership 120 140 160

Fortress Investment Group 0 20 40 60 80 100 Net MW Ownership 120 140 160

Solar CSP Industry will add 170 MW in 2008, all in Europe. No installations are expected in the US until at least 2010
Renewable Power Generation Advisory RPG 875-080129 Page 6

Current Market Status

Concentrating Solar Power by Technology


Current Installed CSP Technology Announced CSP Facilities by Technology
100%

Central Receiver 11 MW

Parabolic Trough 420 MW

90% 80% 70% 60%

Solar Chimney Parabolic Trough Linear Fresnel ISCC Dish Engine Central Receiver

Total: 431 MW

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TBD

Abengoas 11 MW central receiver system is the first large scale commercial facility to come online in 17 years Accionas 64 MW Nevada Solar One plant is the first parabolic trough plant to come online since 1991 No current facilities have additional storage capabilities

Solar Millennium has announced 1,000 MW of parabolic trough planned for Inner Mongolia by 2020 3,000 MW of Fresnel is planned by Solar Power Group for North Africa with the Libyan Center for Solar Research

Renewable Power Generation Advisory RPG 875-080129

Page 7

Competitive Strategies

Solar CSP Developer Positioning

Independent technology providers Technology Promoters Leveraging specialized technology capabilities

Renewable ownership leaders Utilities & IPPs Adding CSP projects to wind portfolios

Renewable Project Developers

Opportunistic players playing off promoters and Utility/IPPs Locking up optimal sites for investment

Renewable Power Generation Advisory RPG 875-080129

Page 8

Competitive Strategies

Geographic Strategies

Abengoa Solar Ausra, Inc. Novatec Biosol Sener Solar Millennium Solar Power Group Solel (Pasch y CIA S.A.)

Acciona Solar EDP, Neo Energa Enel SpA Endesa Iberdrola SAMCA

Epuron (Conergy) EECH Ener-T Global Grupo Enhol Albiasa Solar

Abengoa Solar Ausra, Inc. BrightSource Energy SkyFuel Solel Solar Systems Stirling Energy Systems Acciona Solar Power FPL Energy Bethel Energy Inland Energy

Enel SpA Solar Millennium Ausra, Inc Abengoa Solar (Abener) Solel Solar Systems ADFEC Iberdrola Solar Millennium

Technology Promoter Utility / IPP Owner Pure Play Developer ESKOM

Ausra, Inc

Renewable Power Generation Advisory RPG 875-080129

Page 9

Competitive Strategies

Solar CSP Value Chain


Technology Integrator Project Development EPC Operation Project Ownership

Technology Promoters

ACS Cobra, Sener MAN Ferrostaal Sacyr Vallehermoso URS Corporation

GE Finance, EDP, Solar Millennium, ACS Solel

Renewable Power Generation Advisory RPG 875-080129

IPPs & Utilities

Page 10

Competitive Strategies

Technology Promoter Differentiation


Solar Millennium

Global

Abengoa Solar Solel Ausra Abengoa stands alone in technology diversification with experience in parabolic trough, central receiver, and dish engine experience. Geographically focused on Spain, North Africa, and the US

Solar Power Group

Split evenly between parabolic trough players and linear Fresnel players applying global development strategy beyond one country Focused on one country and one technology during demonstration stage before launching globally

Ener-T Global Novatec Biosol

Local

BrightSource Energy Sener SES

Technology Diversification
Renewable Power Generation Advisory RPG 875-080129 Page 11

Competitive Strategies

Wind Developers Enter CSP Sector

600

Solar CSP Installed (MW)

Solar CSP Planned (MW)

Wind Capacity (MW)

250

215

5,711

142

2,791

2,003

150

4,840

1,194

200 809 56

Iberdrola

FPL Energy

Acciona

65

EDP

Endesa

Enel

Renewable Power Generation Advisory RPG 875-080129

Page 12

Outlook

Conclusions
Fossil fuel volatility and climate change issues will bolster renewable market over coming decade, fostering solar CSP buildout The Spanish will be slow and steady over the next decade; US market growth will take place closer to 2015 Parabolic trough technology will continue dominant role until emerging technologies prove viable. Thermal storage will prove critical over long term. The industry will begin to consolidate over the next five years with leading IPPs and utilities acquiring assets

Renewable Power Generation Advisory RPG 875-080129

Page 13

Emerging Energy Research


Emerging Energy Research provides analyst-directed advisory services on an annual subscription basis, providing market intelligence, competitive analysis and strategy advice in response to the specific needs of our clients. These services provide value-added support of clients competitive and market strategies, and are intended to be interactive, offering clients direct access to EER experts. Advisory service clients receive a stream of market and company briefs, ongoing market data and forecast support, telephone inquiry privileges, and regular analyst briefings. While much of the content is syndicated, clients also receive ongoing individual support of market assessment and strategy development needs. For more information on EERs advisory services, please contact Marcel van Galen at mvangalen@emerging-energy.com, or contact one of our offices:

Cambridge
Emerging Energy Research 700 Technology Square Cambridge, MA 02139 USA Phone: +1 617 551 8480 Fax: +1 617 551 8481

Barcelona
Emerging Energy Research Paseo de Gracia 60, 3B Barcelona 08007 Spain Phone: +34 93 467 6750 Fax: +34 93 467 6754

2007 EMERGING ENERGY RESEARCH, LLC. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is strictly forbidden. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it.

Renewable Power Generation Advisory RPG 875-080129

Page 14

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