WGSN TrendCurve: The

Evolution of Suncare
Now a staple in the skincare lexicon, what's next in
suncare? Discover emerging regional formats, its move
from a seasonal to daily skin essential and next-gen-
targeted formulations. The WGSN TrendCurve uses
machine-learning and data analytics to track, analyse and
interpret trend growth through four stages of adoption

Christine Chua & Zara Hussain

04.28.23 - 14 minutes

@supergoop
Executive summary
WGSN’s TrendCurve analyses social media to track and identify focus points
within suncare and predict its development.
The evolution of suncare
Why suncare? Suncare boomed during the pandemic as more people spent time What you need to know
outdoors. A daily essential as temperatures rise across the globe, brands are pushing
improved formulas infused with soothing ingredients to fit sensitive skin needs Social media penetration Top formats at retail
alongside targeted skin-first formats geared towards skintellectual consumers.
Regional penetration over time
Cream 14.9%
Trend level: suncare is a big trend across the stages with 25% penetration, presenting Overall APAC
40 Lotion 12.9%
new opportunities for innovation. It has grown slightly by +0.9ppt YoY, with unusually
strong rates from January to March 2023, driven by users in APAC and Innovators – a Kit/pack/set 7.5%
30
contrast to when suncare used to be a seasonal trend, peaking in July (summer in the Spray 7.1%

Northern hemisphere). July 2022 was the highest peak ever. 20 Moisturiser 6.6%
Gel 5.2%
Opportunities to watch: formats adapted to daily use such as comfortable textures and
10 Water 5.0%
easy application will be sought after as educated consumers become vigilant about 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Oil 3.9%
reapplying suncare. Diverse sunscreens for all skin tones and needs will be a must,
driven by Skinic consumer sentiments. Penetration by region Mist 3.5%
Stick 3.4%
Action points: create for diverse regional needs and adapt formulations for specific skin APAC 34% ▲+4.8
Share %
textures, concerns and climates. NPD must be personalised by region and country, such EU 20% ▲+0.3
as NAM's preference for Skinimalist formats, cooling gels for tropical climates in Growth opportunities
LATAM, APAC and parts of the US, and rich creams for Europe that nourish skin in
LATAM 26% ▲+1.3
Formats for everyday use Luxury suncare
cooler, drier weather. NAM 22% ▼-1.7
Suncare as skincare Skinclusive sunscreen
UK 19% ▼-2.0

WGSN TrendCurve social media/retail data

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TrendCurve Methodology audio explainer
Listen to data analyst Zara Hussain explain our TrendCurve methodology

WGSN
TrendCurve Methodology audio

Privacy policy
4
WGSN · TrendCurve Methodology audio

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Beauty TrendCurve methodology

Our proprietary methodology combines data science, analytics and

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
human expertise to give you a valuable visualisation of how trends are Emerging Advancing Expanding Maturing
growing and where and when they should be leveraged for new product
development and business growth.

WGSN partners with AI-powered data analytics provider Yimian, an

Ascential Company, to track trends and sentiments on social media,
and we use proprietary retail data covering online inventory and
Innovator Early Adopter Early Majority Mainstreamer
price and promo to produce high-value market intelligence across
the beauty industry.
Key Terms & Definitions
TrendCurve Stage See the full methodology at the end of report.

A specific stage in the TrendCurve that denotes the level of trend adoption.
WGSN Influencer Map Buzz Penetration
Innovator Early Adopter Created by a team of WGSN beauty # of likes + # of The percentage of our
strategists that identifies global comments per post + # influencer map that has
A pioneer, disruptor, developer, trailblazer, Not the first, but still daring and risk-taking.
influencers including retailers, of posts that include interacted with a trend in
progressive brand, retailer, business or person They aspire to be the first to break a trend and
brands, make-up artists, the relevant keyword. a period of time.
that is doing something new or unique. are often trend-led not brand-led.
dermatologists and spas/salons.

Early Majority Mainstreamer

Trend-conscious and trend aware, these play it Pick up on a trend in its most commercial
safe and wait to see if a trend will have form. Results driven rather than aesthetic
commercial appeal and success. driven. Affordable and cost-effective.

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Suncare across the TrendCurve stages
Our TrendCurve map reveals which suncare product formats are gaining traction.

OARS + ALPS @supergoop Naked Sundays @ultravioletteau

Definitions Innovator Early Adopter Early Majority Mainstreamer

WGSN TrendCurve: The Innovators lead growth rates Glass skin finishes and Early Majority have the most Mainstreamers are the only
Evolution of Suncare analyses in Jan-Mar 2023, at +3.1% in a cooling textures are popular diverse number of growing group in decline, at 0.7ppt
data from our Beauty social typically off-peak period with Early Adopters. "Dewy" trends March 2023 YoY
media Influencer Map along with is mentioned by one in 10
Innovators have new interest Similar to Early Adopters, Terms like "buildable", used
market trends to map trends consumers, alongside "jelly"
in luxe suncare. Interest lightweight formats such as to refer to foundations with
across four stages – Innovator, spiked by 8.5ppt from 2022 and "gel", while "matte" is in "serums" (+5.7ppt) and "gels" SPF, and "blue light" are
Early Adopter, Early Majority and Q4 to 2023 Q1 decline (+3.7ppt) are quickly rising, rising, indicating
Mainstreamer – by their size and Easy to use and remove alongside emerging formats Mainstreamers aren't using
maturity. Opportunities emerge They lead conversations for
on-the-go formats such as formats such as "powder" like "ampoule". Matte finishes suncare as a standalone. All-
in early stages to inform business and "washable" are on the are in growth at 2.3ppt in in-one UV packs are also
growth in later-stage brands. sticks, at a 9% penetration
rise, drawing on our co- contrast to Early Adopter's growing, mentioned by one
rate and +0.9ppt YoY
washing skin trend "dewy" in four Mainstreamers

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Retail analysis
Top three sunscreen filters Top textures and formats
Our WGSN proprietary retail data tracks APAC NAM UK LATAM
lotion non-sticky
smooth cream
emerging trends in SPF filters, ingredients, buildable

claims, formats and skin finishes across four Octocrylene

lightweight
luxurious
gel silky
retailers in APAC, UK, US and LATAM. mist milk
water
Titanium creamy dewy
Titanium dioxide, octocrylene and zinc dioxide mousse

rich light
oxide are the three most used SPF filters stick spray set oil sheer
across all regions. APAC's is titanium liquid matte
Zinc oxide
dioxide (48%), the UK's and LATAM's is moisturiser
non-greasy
weightless serum luminous
octocrylene (40% and 32%) and the US's is refreshing
0 100
zinc oxide (35%) Share of sunscreen at online retail (%) velvety

Dry skin products are the most common

claim across regions. Sensitive skin is more WGSN TrendCurve retail data WGSN TrendCurve retail data
prominent in APAC and the UK (29% and
25% vs the global 20%), while vegan and
cruelty free are more common in LATAM
Top five claims Top categories in suncare
and the US APAC NAM UK LATAM APAC NAM UK LATAM
Moisturiser
Dry skin
Creams are APAC's and the UK's top format, Serum
at 27% and 18%; gels are LATAM's at 14% Cruelty-free Tone-up
and lotions are the US's at 18%. Light Body lotion
textures are preferred across the regions, Vegan
Foundation
more prominently in the US and LATAM at Lip balm
Sensitive skin
80% and 61% than APAC's 49% and the UK's Eye cream
54% Non-greasy Face mist
Body mist
Outside of sunscreen, the most common 0 50 100 150
0 20
cross-categorical SPF product is Share of suncare at online retail (%) Share of suncare at online retail (%)
moisturisers (largest share in the US at
11%), tone-up creams (only prominent in WGSN TrendCurve retail data WGSN TrendCurve retail data
APAC at 12%) and serum (most prominent
in LATAM at 9%)

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 Priorities by region: Asia-
Penetration of suncare
in APAC Pacific
APAC consumers had the biggest interest in
suncare, leading conversations on white

▲+4.8ppt
cast-free sunscreen and products for
sensitive skin.

APAC preferred SPF50 over lower dosages at

34% compared to 4% (SPF30) and 1%
March 2022 vs March 2023 (SPF15), where suncare protection is
prioritised over other factors such as
@ultravioletteau
texture
Australian brand Ultra Violette's Queen Screen WGSN TrendCurve social media data Asia drives conversations on "white cast" in
is a lightweight, oil-free sunscreen for mature sunscreen at 18% share in Q1 2023 vs 11%
skin
on average, growing 5.9ppt YoY

How to action this:

Prioritise non-irritating formulas that target
different skin conditions. Hone in on dry
and sensitive skin
Include ingredients and jelly textures
known to soothe redness, acne and skin
thinness, such as centella asiatica
Formulate physical UV filters that leave no
white cast, in line with the region's
preference for physical filters. South Korean
@happyskin_ph
@solarmonopoly
brand TOCOBO's Bio Watery Sun Cream
Filipino brand Happy Skin's Sun Serum is uses nano zinc oxide that is white, but
Indonesia's Solar Monopoly comes in a mist infused with hyaluronic acid to hydrate and blends into skin as a clear formulation
@tocobo_official
format suited to its tropical weather protect skin

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 Priorities by region: Europe
UV protection during sports and exercise is
a bigger topic of discussion in the EU, with
larger fluctuations in between peak and off-
seasons compared to other regions.

Discussions around SPF for sports and

exercise are not large across the board,
however, they have a large presence in the
EU, leading the social media conversation at
14%, up 4.8ppt YoY
La Roche Posay
Europe shows more seasonal variation
compared to other groups, varying by 18%
My UV Patch is a water- and sweat-proof
electronic wearable that lets users know when in Q1 vs Q3
@polaar
to reapply sunscreen
How to action this:
Get climate-specific with SPF products and
Sports/exercise in suncare
promote education on year-round sun
conversations in EU
safety. UV rays appear all year, regardless of
temperature. French brand Polaar's suncare

14% range is geared to high-altitude areas, where

UV rays can be more intense than in
summer

▲+4.8 ppt
Harness the uptrending ath-beauty trend
with outdoor sports- and exercise-friendly
formats, such as sticks, sprays and roll-ons
2022 vs 2021 that are both water- and sweat-resistant
@skinplan @mimitika_suncare

WGSN TrendCurve social media data Swedish brand SkinPlan's SunControl UV France-based Mimitika's Sunscreen Oil is
sensor and time table states how long users infused with hibiscus and luffa seed oils to
can spend under sun encourage melanin formation and an even tan

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 Priorities by region: UK
The UK sees most
YoY growth in the Out of all the regions, the UK has the lowest
summer months penetration with the greatest decline in
suncare interest. However, it has consistent
31%
YoY interest for suncare in summer.
26%
Penetration (%)

24%
The UK's penetration and growth rates for
suncare are the lowest at 19% and down
2ppt
Interest is strong as a summer trend, but
7/2020 7/2021 7/2022
low in off-peak seasons. The UK has the
Pai Skincare
strongest consistent growth rates in July YoY
since the pandemic and spiked by 4.8% in
WGSN TrendCurve social media data Pai Skincare's British Summer Time is made for
sensitive skin types and is clinically tested July 2022
Sensitive skin, water-resistant and non-
greasy were the UK's most common claims
in retail at 25%, 23% and 22%

How to action this:

Curate UV sets that take care of skin before,
in between and after summer activities,
such as mists to reapply and soothing
ingredients to treat sun burn
Go beyond water-resistant claims with
innovative formats such as Japanese brand
Anessa's Perfect UV Sunscreen Skincare
@theinkeylist @salteesun Milk, which strengthens UV protection
@upcirclebeauty
when bonded with sweat or water
The Inkey List's newest sunscreen has a velvety Saltee's Body Sea & Sun Lotion is infused with
UpCircle's reef-friendly sunscreen is refillable texture that dries matte on skin for everyday a unique tan accelerator, MelinOil, that
and soothes redness from sun burn wear simultaneously protects skin

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 Priorities by region: North
America
North American consumers show most
interest in lightweight textures and finishes,
as well as eco-friendly credentials than in
any other region.

Lotion is NAM's favoured format over the

global preference for cream, reflecting the
region's emphasis on lightweight textures
and comfortable finishes
Milk Makeup @attitude_living
NAM consumers choose SPF30 products
Milk Makeup's (US) vegan, UV-infused skin Canada's Attitude is championing reef-friendly over SPF50, in line with the region's
screen comes with a flower pattern that sunscreens with biodegradable cardboard preference for lighter, smoother textures
encourages daily wear packaging
North America lead suncare conversations
on "reef" at 14% share on Instagram in 2022,
Online retail of lotion in NAM due to concerns over ingredients being reef-
safe

How to action this:

18% Innovate high SPF (SPF50 and above) with

comfortable, lightweight textures. Current
SPF50 offerings are known to have cloying
textures NAM audiences don't like

In North America, lotion is the most Brands must be discerning about the eco-
popular format in online retail credentials they signpost in an era of clean-
@relevant.skin Koa
washing. Certify eco claims with third-party
verification to ensure full transparency and
Relevant's (US) One & Done is a four-in-one WGSN TrendCurve retail data Hawaiian brand Koa's sunscreen conforms to keep on top of the latest changes in suncare
sunscreen, serum, moisturiser and primer local reef-friendly regulations using non-nano regulation
made for lazy beauty users mineral UV filter

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 Priorities by region: Latin
Online retail of gel in LATAM
America
LATAM consumers dominate interest in

14%
sweat- and water-resistant products,
alongside a preference for cooling textures
such as gels and serums.

Gel and serum formats have a higher share

(14% and 9%) at LATAM retail than other
In Latin America, gel is most
regions (7.5% and 4%)
popular format at online retail
@ahal_bio
"Sweat-proof" and "water [resistant]" SPFs
had the highest share in suncare
WGSN TrendCurve retail data Mexican brand Ahal's Sun Protection is infused conversation at 22% vs the global 7%
with aloe vera, melipona honey and kalahari
extract to soothe redness Top-mentioned formats on Instagram were
"powder" (23%), "balm" (22%), "butter"
(10%) and "velvety" (10%), as of 2023 Q1

How to action this:

Develop sunscreens to complement humid
and hot climates, using ingredients that
cool down the skin's temperature such as
aloe vera, mint and cucumber
Upgrade product lines to include UV
benefits for neglected areas such as lips,
under eyes, hair and scalp to combat harsh
sun rays
@sallve @oficialadcos @gebeauty Create easy to touch-up formats like mists
that can be used all over, alongside
Sallve's range of whitecast-free sunscreens are Brazilian derma brand Adcos' suncare range Brazil-based GE Beauty's Booster Antioxidante
formulated to control oil levels throughout the goes up to SPF80 to protect against hotter is a hair serum that protects against UV
multifunctional tanning oils, deodorants
day weather radiation, pollution and smoke and powders that streamline routines

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Growth opportunities:
elevated formats for everyday
use
Convenient formats are coming to the fore
as suncare evolves from a summer must-
have to a daily essential.
KINLÒ
Mentions of "suncare" on Instagram surged at
the beginning of 2023 (January-March) – the
strongest growth rates have been YoY.
Compared to 2022, "suncare" only peaked in
July, reflecting a new desire for all-year @andbe_official

protection in 2023.
Japanese brand &be's UV Smooth Powder is a two-in-one sunscreen that touches up make-up
Education about when and how to apply and can be removed easily with cleanser
sunscreen is a common theme. "Reapplication"
is a topic that grew by 7.5ppt at a 9%
penetration rate on Instagram. In retail, sticks,
Reapplication of sun protection is increasingly @drwishsg

cushions and sprays are emerging, indicating 12 discussed on social media

Singapore-based Dr. W!sh's Homecare Face
demand for formats that aid easy reapplication
First is a wash-on SPF30 sunscreen applied like
throughout the day. cleanser
Share of suncare (%)

How to action this:

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Make reapplying suncare fuss-free for daily
wear. Choose next-gen wearable formats
such as UV patches or make-up and suncare
hybrids that help streamline reapplication –
see &be and IOPE 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Create easy to follow indicators that let
users know when and how often they need
@iope_official
to reapply. KINLÒ's (US) sun stickers change WGSN TrendCurve social media data
colour when it's time for users to reapply, South Korean brand IOPE's UV Shield Outdoor
based on its live UV-detecting tech Sun Patch is a wearable stick-on SPF that
doesn't necessitate reapplying

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Growth opportunities:
targeted skin and sun
solutions
SPF products that embrace a skincare-first
approach will resonate with skintellectuals
looking for individualised product solutions.
@coola

Evolving from skincare hybrids, consumers are

COOLA's (US) lip oil is a lip plumper that relieves
seeking suncare that performs like skincare in dry lips while providing SPF30 protection
texture, ingredients and benefits. SPF-infused
serums are the biggest and fastest-growing
category in suncare, occupying 39% of suncare
conversations and growing by 1.9ppt YoY.
Retailers are adopting this targeted approach.
Products were most commonly sorted by skin @zitsticka

type: "dry skin" (18%), "sensitive skin" (25%) and

"dark spots" (6%). Skin-caring ingredients such
as "aloe" (22%) and "hyaluronic acid" (26%) were Share of serums in suncare on social media @sunnicorn_life
also prominent. 40
South Korean brand Sunnicorn's essence and
How to action this:
sunscreen includes soothing bamboo geared
Create products to meet consumers' specific for sensitive skin types
Share of suncare (%)

skincare needs and concerns. See ZitSticka's

(US) Megashade SPF50 serum for breakout- 20
prone skin
Integrate popular skincare trends into
suncare products. Make skincare
ingredients the star and offer lightweight, 0
non-greasy and non-comedogenic textures 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

@supergoop
WGSN TrendCurve social media data

US brand Supergoop!'s Daily Dose is an anti-

ageing serum infused with SPF40 benefits to
protect users from all skin aggressors

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Growth opportunities:
skinclusive sunscreen
Demand for sunscreens that suit all skin
tones is up where current offerings for
melanated skin needs are lacking, as noted
in our Innovations in BIPOC Suncare report.
@larocheposaybr
With widespread education on Black and brown
skin concerns, consumers are more aware of France's L'Oréal introduced a graduated colour
sun damage to melanated skin and are looking scale to its sunscreens in Brazil to cater to the
diverse population
for sunscreens designed for dark skin tones.
Mentions of "white cast" on Instagram spiked in
2022 by 3.6ppt YoY, with a continued upward
trajectory into 2023. It occupies 11% share of
suncare conversation and is driven by APAC.
How to action this: @blackgirlsunscreen

Avoid common culprits that leave a white

cast such as zinc oxide and titanium
dioxide. Opt for chemical filters like Black White casts are a growing topic in suncare @itsmybase
15
Girl Sunscreen (US), which uses antioxidant-
rich oils that boast an 'invisible' finish Indonesian brand Studio Tropik's Skin Fusion
Capsules in its tinted sunscreen adapts and
Conduct user trials on a wide range of skin
Share of suncare (%)

10 evens out on all skin tones

tones and undertones before market release
Create higher SPF products for dark skin
tones, where SPF50 options are rare. 5
Collaborate with Black or brown
dermatologists well-versed in melanin-rich
skin 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Shiseido
WGSN TrendCurve social media data

Japan-based Shiseido's Clear Sunscreen Stick

is SPF50 and suitable for all skin tones

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Growth opportunities: next-
gen luxury suncare
A niche trend for luxury suncare is emerging
among consumers who want high-quality
solutions to protect themselves from the
sun.
Dr Jart+
Mentions of "premium" and "luxury" spiked in
2023 Q1 to 16% from 7% in 2022 Q4 – a new South Korea-based Dr. Jart+'s Solarbiome
trend exclusive to Innovators. Ampoule SPF 50+ was tested under space
conditions
Elements that elevate suncare to a
multisensorial experience are a recurring
@pavise
theme. Growing terms include "light",
"luxurious", "fragrance" and "glow", most Pavise uses NASA-backed tech to deliver superior and longer wavelength protection from UVA,
prominent in the body category. UVB and HE in its Dynamic Age Defense SPF

How to action this:

Create suncare in formats people associate Luxury suncare in Innovator conversations
with high-end, luxury skincare. Sol de
Janeiro's (US) Bum Bum Sol Oil has a @soldejaneiro

"luxurious" texture and "irresistible smell"

▲+8.5 ppt
that enhances the "typical SPF experience"
Power formulations with tech innovation
and extremophile ingredients for multi-
spectrum protection. See Pavise (US)
Make reapplication joyful with textures and
delivery mechanisms that excite, such as Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022
foams, oils and bubbles
@sarahchapmanlondon

WGSN TrendCurve social media data British brand Sarah Chapman's Skin Insurance
includes essential oils for a "multisensory
experience and exceptional protection"

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1 234
Action points

Make application easy Clarify reef-friendly offerings Create for universal use Up the fun factor

Reapplication is a key topic in suncare, Recent research has shown zinc oxide Beyond skinclusivity, brands should Upgrade suncare offerings by ditching
with many consumers determined to and titanium dioxide may not be reef- invest in suncare offerings that cater to an often boring, clinical approach. Key
apply it correctly. Make this process easy friendly alternatives due to lack of disabled people, leveraging universal in on hi-tech methodologies, fun
with wearable patches and clothes that biodegradability. Brands must avoid design principles and addressing the textures and non-irritating light scents
don't necessitate reapplication and clean-washing by rigorously testing SPF issue of suncare poverty with more that make routines enjoyable
reminders to reapply by geo-location filters to ensure they do not harm the affordable and accessible options
living organism in the ocean

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Methodology and definitions
WGSN TrendCurve uses machine learning and data analytics to track, analyse
and interpret beauty trends as they emerge from innovative disruptors and
developers and expand across four stages of maturity towards the mainstream
marketplace.

We identify patterns and trends from millions of social media posts and online retail
shelf data. This proprietary combination of technology, data science and human
ingenuity gives you a valuable visualisation of how trends are growing across the beauty
industry.
We interpret these movements and align them with powerful consumer drivers to
forecast how, where and when trends can best be leveraged for new product
development and innovation strategy.
Our WGSN Influencer Map positions beauty sources into four stages, classified as
Innovator, Early Adopter, Early Majority and Mainstreamer, according to when they
adopt trends. Beauty data is mapped and analysed in line with our Influencer Map.
Trend: a specific ingredient, formulation, aroma, application method, benefit, product
or broader societal movement impacting the sector.
TrendCurve: the WGSN TrendCurve is grounded in the Diffusion of Innovation Theory
(E M Rogers, 1962) and the innovation S-curve.
TrendCurve stage: a specific point in the TrendCurve that denotes the level of trend
adoption.
WGSN Influencer Map: created by a team of WGSN beauty specialists, the Influencer
@sunnicorn_life
Map identifies global influencers from a range of sources, including retailers, brands,
make-up artists, dermatologists, spas/salons and more.

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WGSN data sources
Social media data by: Yimian, an Ascential company Retail data
We leverage the power of Yimian’s AI technology and real-time social listening and WGSN uses e-commerce data covering online inventory and price and promotion data
analysis tool to identify trends, keywords and sentiments on social media. for online beauty retailers.
Data and analysis are based on posts containing suncare mentions, keywords and Products in the suncare category were collected on retailers’ websites from UK, US,
hashtags from accounts within our WGSN Influencer Map LATAM and APAC.
Data was collected from January 1 2018 to April 1 2023 Retailers include Dermstore, Olive Young and Sephora Mexico, among others
Penetration: the percentage of our WGSN Influencer Map that has interacted with a Data was collected April 2023
trend in a period of time (# unique users who posted at least once/total active users) ppt: percentage points difference
x 100
Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding
Buzz: # of likes + # of comments per post + # of posts that include the relevant
keyword

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