Final Exam - International Economics
Final Exam - International Economics
S BALANCE OF PAYMENT
CHANGES IN VIETNAMESE
EXPORT STRUCTURE
Course Title
International Economics
Course code: INS2005.05
Lecturer: Dong Van Chung
Group 3
Nguyen Thi Nhu Quynh - 21070899
Nguyen Thi Mai Huong - 21070174 Vo Thi Khanh Huyen - 20070488
Nguyen Phuong Linh - 21070386 Nguyen Thi Tram - 21070454
INS2005
Final exam
TABLE
TABLE OF
OF CONTENTS
CONTENTS
A EXCUTIVE SUMMARY 3
B INTRODUCTION 3
D CONCLUSION 18
E REFERENCES 19
F CONTRIBUTION 21
A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In 2022, the U.S. balance of payments exhibited a reduced current account deficit,
driven by a decrease in the goods deficit. Strong export performance in industrial
supplies, capital goods, and services highlighted American competitiveness. The U.S.
boasted comparative advantages in technology, heavy industry, and intellectual
property, resulting in a trade surplus in royalties and license fees.
B. INTRODUCTION
3
Structure and scope of the report
This study evaluates the U.S. current account, exploring export-import dynamics,
comparative advantages, and resulting surplus or deficit. It aims to uncover insights
into the U.S. economic well-being, global competitiveness, and trade balance factors.
Additionally, the report investigates strategic shifts in Vietnam's export structure,
employing theories like comparative advantage, the gravity model, and trade
integration to understand the reasons behind this transformation.
This research delivers crucial insights for policymakers, economists, and businesses,
guiding strategic decisions in the U.S. and Vietnam. Unveiling the intricacies of the
U.S. balance of payments informs policies, trade negotiations, and global
competitiveness strategies. Similarly, unraveling Vietnam's export transformation
provides valuable lessons for nations aspiring to diversify and enhance export value.
Furthermore, the research enriches the discourse on international trade dynamics,
presenting a nuanced perspective on factors shaping trade patterns and the impact of
export structure shifts on a nation's economic path.
4
Issue Description
The balance of payments intricately reflects a nation's economic ties globally. For the
U.S., delving into the current account unveils trade performance, export-import
dynamics, and global market advantages and disadvantages. In contrast, Vietnam's
export transformation signifies a strategic move from natural resources to high-value
products, analyzed through comparative advantage, the gravity model, and trade
integration principles, revealing the driving forces behind this shift.
PART 1
THE U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
I. Definition
The US balance of payments refers to a systematic record of all economic
transactions between residents of the US and residents of other countries during 2022.
It provides a comprehensive overview of American financial interactions with the rest
of the world. The balance of payments consists of two main components: the current
account and the capital account.
The current account records transactions related to the import and export of
goods and services and income streams. It reflects the net income that the United
States earns from economic activities with other countries.
The capital account includes Foreign Direct Investment, Portfolio Investment,
loans, banking transactions, and non-productive, non-financial assets.
5
Based on data that
was accessible as of
September 2021, the
U.S current account
deficit decreased in
the third quarter of
2022: decreased by
$21.6 billion, or 9.1%,
to $217.1 billion. The
deficit in goods was
the main factor in the
deficit's shrinking. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
In terms of its proportion to the country's overall economic output, the third-quarter
deficit accounted for 3.4 percent of the current GDP.
6
Export Import
The United States ranked as the The United States, the world's second-
world's third-largest exporter, saw a largest importer, experienced a
significant increase in its merchandise substantial increase in its imports in
exports in 2022 with a total export 2022. The main imported categories
value of $2,085.6 billion. This growth were industrial supplies and materials
has had a notable impact on the (27%), capital goods (26%), automotive
country's balance of payments. The vehicles (12%), parts and engines, and
export of goods increased by 310.5 foods, feeds, and beverages (6%).
billion USD. The industrial supplies Imports from China accounted for 17%
and materials sector (crude oil, fuel oil, of the total, followed by Mexico (14%),
other petroleum products, and natural Canada (13%), Japan (4.5%), and
gas) increased by $190.9 billion (38%). Germany (4.5%). The total value of
The capital goods sector (civil aircraft imports rose by $425.7 billion to reach
engines, electrical equipment, and other $3,277.3 billion. The industrial goods
industrial machinery) increased by 51.0 and materials sector is primarily driven
billion USD (29%). Exports of food, by increased imports of crude oil and
animal feed, and beverages (soybean) other petroleum products rising by
increased by 15.3 billion USD (14%). $160.9 billion. A $52.0 billion increase
The export of cars, spare parts, and in imports of automobiles,
engines increased by 14.3 billion USD. components, and engines. A significant
The service sector increased increase in imports of travel services
significantly, reaching 924.2 billion and transport services highlighted the
USD, of which tourism services importance of international travel,
increased by 63.8 billion USD tourism, and logistics in promoting
global trade.
7
2. Comparative advantages and disadvantages
The U.S deficit remains a subject of concern, with data indicating challenges
associated with trade imbalances, foreign debt accumulation, exchange rate pressures,
dependency on foreign capital, and vulnerability to economic shocks.
8
In 2022, the U.S. trade deficit stood at $67.5 billion, underscoring a pattern of
imports surpassing exports. This trade imbalance raises the specter of potential job
losses within domestic industries facing heightened international competition.
The persistent current account deficit exerts pressure on the U.S. dollar. In 2022,
fluctuations in the dollar were observed, with a weaker currency enhancing the
competitiveness of U.S. exports but simultaneously contributing to inflationary
pressures through more expensive imported goods.
The United States has consistently faced a current account deficit, revealing that the
nation imports more goods and services than it exports. Components of the Current
Account Deficit:
Trade Balance
The United States maintains a chronic
trade deficit, indicative of an
imbalance where imports surpass
exports. Consumer preferences, global
supply chains, and the competitiveness
of U.S. products abroad contribute to
this trade gap.
The U.S. experiences a deficit in net income from abroad, reflecting the income
earned by U.S. investments and assets held overseas, minus the income earned by
foreign entities with investments and assets in the U.S.
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Net Transfers
Net transfers, including items like foreign aid and remittances, vary and can
contribute to either a surplus or deficit. Government policies and international aid
programs influence the direction of these transfers.
The persistent current account deficit poses several challenges for the United States:
Trade Competitiveness: Domestic industries facing heightened international
competition may witness job losses, impacting employment levels within the
country.
Foreign Debt Accumulation: To finance the deficit, the U.S. increasingly relies on
borrowing from other countries, leading to a substantial accumulation of foreign
debt. This debt burden could pose long-term economic challenges if not managed
judiciously.
Exchange Rate Pressures: The ongoing current account deficit exerts downward
pressure on the value of the U.S. dollar. While a weaker dollar can enhance the
competitiveness of U.S. exports, it also contributes to inflationary pressures
through more expensive imported goods.
Dependency on Foreign Capital: The U.S. depends on foreign capital to finance its
deficit, making the economy vulnerable to shifts in investor sentiment and changes
in global economic conditions.
PART 2
CHANGES IN VIETNAMESE
EXPORT STRUCTURE
10
2. Vietnam’s natural resource
Source: onthidialy.vn
11
In the period 2010-2021, Vietnam's export turnover continuously increased. In 2021,
Vietnam's total export turnover will reach 336.31 billion USD, an increase of 4.7
compared to 2010. On average during the entire period, Vietnam's export turnover
reached about 187.14 billion USD/year.
However, in the period 2012-2015, According to the General Statistics Office, export
growth decreased compared to the previous period because industrial production
encountered difficulties due to the impact of the financial crisis and public debt crisis
in Europe.
In 2019 and 2021, due to the great impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Vietnam's
export growth decreased compared to previous years, reaching 8.58% and 6.36%,
respectively. However, by 2021, Vietnam's export growth began to recover, reaching
19.5%.
The export turnover of goods in the first 6 months of 2022 reached nearly 186 billion
USD, an increase of 17.3% over the same period in 2021. Notably, there were 28 items
with an export turnover of over 1 billion USD accounting for 90.6% of total export
turnover.
12
2. After
No. 493/QD-TTg approving the Goods Import and Export Strategy until 2030.
Accordingly, the Government set a specific goal: Export growth rate goods average 6-
7%/year in the period 2021-2030, of which the period 2021-2025 average export growth
is 8-9%/year; In the period 2026-2030, the average growth will be 5-6%/year.
Regarding product and market structure, increase the proportion of processed and
manufactured industrial goods for export to 88% of total export turnover by 2025 and
90% by 2030; Of which, the export proportion of medium and high technology goods
13
3. Explaining the transformation in Vietnam’s export
structure
Geographical location
14
Stable and favorable business environment
The Vietnamese government has maintained a stable and secure political environment,
which enhances investor confidence. In addition, the Vietnamese government has applied
many support policies to facilitate foreign businesses, including tax reduction, land
provision, simplifying administrative procedures, and promoting trade and investment.
15
3.3. Based on Integration trade
Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007, and actively pursued
trade liberalization through signing free trade agreements (FTAs) with many countries
in the region: 15 FTAs have been signed and are in effect and 2 FTAs are under
negotiation. These agreements open up new markets for Vietnam, and lower trade
barriers while reducing tariffs and harmonizing regulations, and technology transfer,
knowledge, and expertise from other countries. Therefore, Vietnam's export industry
has seen clear changes.
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2. Improve and innovate technology, strongly apply high
technology to production products
Vietnam needs to implement policies to
encourage research and development
(R&D), provide tax incentives for
innovative businesses, facilitate technology
transfer between research organizations
and businesses, and Strongly apply high
technology to production products. This is
the key factor that promotes economic
growth in the long run while enhancing
international competition and opening up Source: en.vietnamplus.vn
opportunities for new and growing
industries.
Vietnam needs to ensure that labor capacity has knowledge, skills, and qualifications
consistent with the requirements of the labor market. Focus on training high-quality
human resources, discovering and fostering talents; and have outstanding policies to
attract and use domestic and foreign talents, experts, and scientists.This helps provide
highly capable, flexible human resources that adapt to economic and technological
changes, contributing to improving national competitiveness.
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Group 3's report INS2005.05
D. CONCLUSION
18
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19
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F. CONTRIBUTION
Team Leader
Outlook
Explaining the transformation in Vietnam’s
Nguyen Thi Nhu Quynh
1 export structure 100%
21070899
The strategy and policy implication to grow
the economy in the long term
Conclusion
Definition in part 1
Nguyen Thi Mai Huong
3 The export and import in part 1 100%
21070174
The advantages in part 1
21