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Final Exam - International Economics

Final exam - International Economics

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
239 views21 pages

Final Exam - International Economics

Final exam - International Economics

Uploaded by

Mun Kang
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 21

THE U.

S BALANCE OF PAYMENT
CHANGES IN VIETNAMESE
EXPORT STRUCTURE
Course Title
International Economics
Course code: INS2005.05
Lecturer: Dong Van Chung

Group 3
Nguyen Thi Nhu Quynh - 21070899
Nguyen Thi Mai Huong - 21070174 Vo Thi Khanh Huyen - 20070488
Nguyen Phuong Linh - 21070386 Nguyen Thi Tram - 21070454

INS2005
Final exam
TABLE
TABLE OF
OF CONTENTS
CONTENTS

A EXCUTIVE SUMMARY 3

B INTRODUCTION 3

C MAIN BODY HEADING


Part 1. The U.S. balance of payments
I. Definition 5
II. The U.S. Balance of Payments
1. The export and import 6
2. Comparative advantages and disadvantages 8
3. Balance of payment surplus/deficit 9
Part 2. Changes in Vietnamese export structure
I. Overview of Vietnam's economy
1. Economic context 10
2. Vietnam’s natural resource 11
II. The changes Vietnam in export structure
1. Before 11
2. After 13
3. Explain the change 14
III. The strategy and policy implication to grow the
economy in the long term 16

D CONCLUSION 18

E REFERENCES 19

F CONTRIBUTION 21
A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

THE U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENT

In 2022, the U.S. balance of payments exhibited a reduced current account deficit,
driven by a decrease in the goods deficit. Strong export performance in industrial
supplies, capital goods, and services highlighted American competitiveness. The U.S.
boasted comparative advantages in technology, heavy industry, and intellectual
property, resulting in a trade surplus in royalties and license fees.

CHANGES IN VIETNAMESE EXPORT STRUCTURE

Vietnam's economic transformation from natural resources to high-value exports aligns


with its strategic shift, attributed to advantages in industrialization, favorable
geography, abundant human resources, and a stable business environment. The gravity
model and trade integration further elucidate Vietnam's export structure shift,
emphasizing key trading partners and participation in free trade agreements. The long-
term strategy involves market diversification, technology adoption, and education
enhancement for sustained economic growth.

B. INTRODUCTION

In the dynamic landscape of international economics, a comprehensive understanding


of a nation's balance of payments is crucial for assessing its economic health, global
competitiveness, and trade relationships. This report delves into the balance of payments
of the United States for the year 2022, with a specific focus on the current account.
Additionally, it explores the export structure transformation of Vietnam, shedding light
on the strategic shifts in Vietnam's trade dynamics.

3
Structure and scope of the report

The report offers a comprehensive overview, beginning with an in-depth exploration


of balance of payments definitions. It meticulously dissects U.S. export-import
dynamics and strategic shifts in Vietnam's exports. Exploring trade advantages and
disadvantages, the report concludes with implications for long-term growth. The scope
spans macroeconomics to sector-specific analyses, focusing on the U.S. current
account, especially goods and services trade, along with scrutinizing key sectors like
technology and intellectual property. In Vietnam, the report examines the evolution of
export structures, considering factors such as comparative advantage, the gravity
model, and trade integration.

Research problem definition and framework

This study evaluates the U.S. current account, exploring export-import dynamics,
comparative advantages, and resulting surplus or deficit. It aims to uncover insights
into the U.S. economic well-being, global competitiveness, and trade balance factors.
Additionally, the report investigates strategic shifts in Vietnam's export structure,
employing theories like comparative advantage, the gravity model, and trade
integration to understand the reasons behind this transformation.

Benefits of conducting research

This research delivers crucial insights for policymakers, economists, and businesses,
guiding strategic decisions in the U.S. and Vietnam. Unveiling the intricacies of the
U.S. balance of payments informs policies, trade negotiations, and global
competitiveness strategies. Similarly, unraveling Vietnam's export transformation
provides valuable lessons for nations aspiring to diversify and enhance export value.
Furthermore, the research enriches the discourse on international trade dynamics,
presenting a nuanced perspective on factors shaping trade patterns and the impact of
export structure shifts on a nation's economic path.

4
Issue Description

The balance of payments intricately reflects a nation's economic ties globally. For the
U.S., delving into the current account unveils trade performance, export-import
dynamics, and global market advantages and disadvantages. In contrast, Vietnam's
export transformation signifies a strategic move from natural resources to high-value
products, analyzed through comparative advantage, the gravity model, and trade
integration principles, revealing the driving forces behind this shift.

C. MAIN BODY HEADINGS

PART 1
THE U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

I. Definition
The US balance of payments refers to a systematic record of all economic
transactions between residents of the US and residents of other countries during 2022.
It provides a comprehensive overview of American financial interactions with the rest
of the world. The balance of payments consists of two main components: the current
account and the capital account.

The current account records transactions related to the import and export of
goods and services and income streams. It reflects the net income that the United
States earns from economic activities with other countries.
The capital account includes Foreign Direct Investment, Portfolio Investment,
loans, banking transactions, and non-productive, non-financial assets.

5
Based on data that
was accessible as of
September 2021, the
U.S current account
deficit decreased in
the third quarter of
2022: decreased by
$21.6 billion, or 9.1%,
to $217.1 billion. The
deficit in goods was
the main factor in the
deficit's shrinking. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

In terms of its proportion to the country's overall economic output, the third-quarter
deficit accounted for 3.4 percent of the current GDP.

II. The U.S. Balance of Payments

1. The export and import

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

6
Export Import

The United States ranked as the The United States, the world's second-
world's third-largest exporter, saw a largest importer, experienced a
significant increase in its merchandise substantial increase in its imports in
exports in 2022 with a total export 2022. The main imported categories
value of $2,085.6 billion. This growth were industrial supplies and materials
has had a notable impact on the (27%), capital goods (26%), automotive
country's balance of payments. The vehicles (12%), parts and engines, and
export of goods increased by 310.5 foods, feeds, and beverages (6%).
billion USD. The industrial supplies Imports from China accounted for 17%
and materials sector (crude oil, fuel oil, of the total, followed by Mexico (14%),
other petroleum products, and natural Canada (13%), Japan (4.5%), and
gas) increased by $190.9 billion (38%). Germany (4.5%). The total value of
The capital goods sector (civil aircraft imports rose by $425.7 billion to reach
engines, electrical equipment, and other $3,277.3 billion. The industrial goods
industrial machinery) increased by 51.0 and materials sector is primarily driven
billion USD (29%). Exports of food, by increased imports of crude oil and
animal feed, and beverages (soybean) other petroleum products rising by
increased by 15.3 billion USD (14%). $160.9 billion. A $52.0 billion increase
The export of cars, spare parts, and in imports of automobiles,
engines increased by 14.3 billion USD. components, and engines. A significant
The service sector increased increase in imports of travel services
significantly, reaching 924.2 billion and transport services highlighted the
USD, of which tourism services importance of international travel,
increased by 63.8 billion USD tourism, and logistics in promoting
global trade.

The United States There is a significant


demonstrated a strong growth in imports of goods
export performance in and services in 2022 in the
2022. These positive United States. These import
developments contributed trends reflect the diverse
to the country's balance of needs and preferences of
payments and emphasized American businesses and
the competitiveness of consumers, as well as the
American industries across interconnectedness of the
the global market. global economy.

7
2. Comparative advantages and disadvantages

2.1. The advantages


The United States is a global leader in intellectual property (IP) creation and
protection. It has a strong legal framework and enforcement mechanisms to safeguard
IP rights. In 2020, the United States had a trade surplus in royalties and license fees
amounting to approximately $140 billion.

According to the survey in 2022, the U.S.


had the comparative advantage in
exporting mineral fuels, mineral oils, and
products of their distillation; bituminous
substances; and minerals representing
10.4% of world exports for this product,
ranking first. Source: Toplist.vn

Particularly in fields like biotechnology, computer technology, and aerospace, the


United States is renowned for its robust technical innovation. For instance, in 2022,
the US ranked 5th in the world export rankings for aircraft and spacecraft, with US
exports accounting for 5.9% of global exports of this commodity.

2.2. The disadvantages

The U.S deficit remains a subject of concern, with data indicating challenges
associated with trade imbalances, foreign debt accumulation, exchange rate pressures,
dependency on foreign capital, and vulnerability to economic shocks.

8
In 2022, the U.S. trade deficit stood at $67.5 billion, underscoring a pattern of
imports surpassing exports. This trade imbalance raises the specter of potential job
losses within domestic industries facing heightened international competition.

The U.S. has increasingly relied on


borrowing from other nations to
sustain the current account deficit.
As of 2022, the foreign debt level
reached staggering figures, posing
long-term economic challenges and
the risk of heightened vulnerability
to global economic fluctuations.

The persistent current account deficit exerts pressure on the U.S. dollar. In 2022,
fluctuations in the dollar were observed, with a weaker currency enhancing the
competitiveness of U.S. exports but simultaneously contributing to inflationary
pressures through more expensive imported goods.

3. Balance of payment surplus/deficit

The United States has consistently faced a current account deficit, revealing that the
nation imports more goods and services than it exports. Components of the Current
Account Deficit:
Trade Balance
The United States maintains a chronic
trade deficit, indicative of an
imbalance where imports surpass
exports. Consumer preferences, global
supply chains, and the competitiveness
of U.S. products abroad contribute to
this trade gap.

Source: Baoquocte.vn Net Income from Abroad

The U.S. experiences a deficit in net income from abroad, reflecting the income
earned by U.S. investments and assets held overseas, minus the income earned by
foreign entities with investments and assets in the U.S.

9
Net Transfers

Net transfers, including items like foreign aid and remittances, vary and can
contribute to either a surplus or deficit. Government policies and international aid
programs influence the direction of these transfers.

The persistent current account deficit poses several challenges for the United States:
Trade Competitiveness: Domestic industries facing heightened international
competition may witness job losses, impacting employment levels within the
country.
Foreign Debt Accumulation: To finance the deficit, the U.S. increasingly relies on
borrowing from other countries, leading to a substantial accumulation of foreign
debt. This debt burden could pose long-term economic challenges if not managed
judiciously.
Exchange Rate Pressures: The ongoing current account deficit exerts downward
pressure on the value of the U.S. dollar. While a weaker dollar can enhance the
competitiveness of U.S. exports, it also contributes to inflationary pressures
through more expensive imported goods.
Dependency on Foreign Capital: The U.S. depends on foreign capital to finance its
deficit, making the economy vulnerable to shifts in investor sentiment and changes
in global economic conditions.

PART 2
CHANGES IN VIETNAMESE
EXPORT STRUCTURE

I. Overview of Vietnam's economy


1. Economic context
Vietnam has undergone significant economic transformation, transitioning from an
agrarian economy to a dynamic, export-oriented one. Over the years, the country has
embraced industrialization and technology-driven growth. Key sectors include
manufacturing, services, and technology. This evolution has led to changes in the
export structure, with a shift from natural resources to higher value-added products.

10
2. Vietnam’s natural resource

Vietnam is endowed with abundant natural


resources, including crude oil, minerals, and
agricultural products. Historically, the country
heavily relied on the export of these raw
materials, contributing to its economic growth.
However, recognizing the limitations and seeking
sustainable development, Vietnam has
strategically shifted its focus towards higher
value-added exports.

Source: onthidialy.vn

II. The changes Vietnam in export structure


1. Before
Previously, Vietnam's export
structure was characterized by a
high dependence on natural
resources, especially crude oil and
minerals. This poses risks related
to price fluctuations in global
commodity markets. The export
portfolio is less diverse, hindering
resilience to external shocks.
ietnam's import and export
activities in the period 2011-2020 Source: Baodautu.vn
still have some shortcomings and
limitations such as the export and import market structure is still slow to change,
epidemic, and the bilateral trade balance with some large markets is not reasonable.
The economy has not fully exploited its export competitive advantages to create export
product groups that are highly competitive and have high scientific and technological
content...

11
In the period 2010-2021, Vietnam's export turnover continuously increased. In 2021,
Vietnam's total export turnover will reach 336.31 billion USD, an increase of 4.7
compared to 2010. On average during the entire period, Vietnam's export turnover
reached about 187.14 billion USD/year.

However, in the period 2012-2015, According to the General Statistics Office, export
growth decreased compared to the previous period because industrial production
encountered difficulties due to the impact of the financial crisis and public debt crisis
in Europe.
In 2019 and 2021, due to the great impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Vietnam's
export growth decreased compared to previous years, reaching 8.58% and 6.36%,
respectively. However, by 2021, Vietnam's export growth began to recover, reaching
19.5%.
The export turnover of goods in the first 6 months of 2022 reached nearly 186 billion
USD, an increase of 17.3% over the same period in 2021. Notably, there were 28 items
with an export turnover of over 1 billion USD accounting for 90.6% of total export
turnover.

12
2. After

Recent trends reflect a


strategic shift towards more
complex and value-added
exports. Phones, electronics,
computers, and machinery
now dominate Vietnam's
export landscape. This
transformation is consistent
with the principles of
comparative advantage, the
gravity model, and trade
integration.
On April 19, 2022, the
Source: VnEconomy Government issued Decision

No. 493/QD-TTg approving the Goods Import and Export Strategy until 2030.
Accordingly, the Government set a specific goal: Export growth rate goods average 6-
7%/year in the period 2021-2030, of which the period 2021-2025 average export growth
is 8-9%/year; In the period 2026-2030, the average growth will be 5-6%/year.

Regarding product and market structure, increase the proportion of processed and
manufactured industrial goods for export to 88% of total export turnover by 2025 and
90% by 2030; Of which, the export proportion of medium and high technology goods

will reach about 65% by 2025 and


70% by 2030. Increase the
proportion of export markets in the
European region to 16 - 17% of
total export turnover in 2025 and 18
- 19% in 2030; the Americas region
to 32 - 33% of total export turnover
by 2025 and 33 - 34% by 2030; The
proportion of the Asian export
market will be about 49 - 50% in
2025 and 46 - 47% in 2030.

13
3. Explaining the transformation in Vietnam’s export
structure

3.1. Based on comparative advantage

Industrialization is a means to promote economic growth, in which the electronics


industry is a key production industry, having a strong spillover effect on other
industries. In Vietnam, although the growth rate is still slow, the industry accounts for
an increasingly large proportion of industrial output and exports. In 2019, Vietnam
became a comparative advantage in exporting machinery, electrical, and electronic
equipment with the RCA coefficient of the HS 85 group reaching 2.54. The structure of
exports has changed strongly in the direction of industrialization in Vietnam's socio-
economic development strategy thanks to the comparative advantage of Vietnam.

Geographical location

Vietnam is strategically located on the


Trans-Asia route and in the center of the
ASEAN region. This is an important
bridge between countries in the region. A
favorable geographical location is a great
resource to promote export activities and
transport goods and plays an important
role in accessing and connecting with
international markets.
Human resources
Vietnam has a young population structure
and abundant labor resources. Working
age group, in 2021, this group accounts for
about 69.6% of the Vietnamese population. Source: vansudia.net
According to a report by the General Statistics Office, the labor force aged 15 and over
in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 52.1 million people. Besides, labor costs in Vietnam are
also relatively low.

14
Stable and favorable business environment

The Vietnamese government has maintained a stable and secure political environment,
which enhances investor confidence. In addition, the Vietnamese government has applied
many support policies to facilitate foreign businesses, including tax reduction, land
provision, simplifying administrative procedures, and promoting trade and investment.

In short, with the above advantages, Vietnam is becoming an


increasingly attractive investment destination for large IT
corporations in the world. The presence of multinational corporations
has led to technology transfer, knowledge dissemination, and capacity
building, and created conditions for domestic enterprises to
participate in the global value chain. In the first quarter of 2021, FDI
enterprises accounted for more than 90% of phone and component
export turnover; electronics, computers, and components; machinery,
equipment, tools, and replacement parts.

3.2. Based on the gravity model


The gravity model is an economic model used to predict and describe trade interactions
between countries based on factors such as the size of the economy (GDP), population,
and distance between them. The basic formula of the gravity model usually takes the
form:
Fij is the export value between countries i and j.
G is the constant.
Mi, Mj are the GDP of countries i and j.
Dij is the distance between countries i and j.

In the gravity model, distance affects a country's export performance. Therefore,


Vietnam promotes development and cooperation in import-export activities with
countries in the region, typically the three countries of China, Korea, and Japan. They
have a favorable position compared to Vietnam and their GDP scale is also the 3rd
largest in Asia.

15
3.3. Based on Integration trade

Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007, and actively pursued
trade liberalization through signing free trade agreements (FTAs) with many countries
in the region: 15 FTAs have been signed and are in effect and 2 FTAs are under
negotiation. These agreements open up new markets for Vietnam, and lower trade
barriers while reducing tariffs and harmonizing regulations, and technology transfer,
knowledge, and expertise from other countries. Therefore, Vietnam's export industry
has seen clear changes.

One notable FTA is the


Comprehensive and Progressive
Agreement for Trans-Pacific
Partnership (CPTPP) that
Vietnam ratified in 2018. CPTPP
has expanded market access for
Vietnamese exporters, especially
in countries such as Japan,
Canada, and Australia, which
are major importers of electrical
machinery and equipment.
Source: Vietnam Investment Review

This has contributed to improving production capacity in Vietnam's machinery and


electrical equipment sector which shifted Vietnam's export structure positively.

III. The strategy and policy implication to grow the


economy in the long term
1. Diversify import-export markets
Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007, and actively pursued
trade liberalization through signing free trade agreements (FTAs) with many countries
in the region: 15 FTAs have been signed and are in effect and 2 FTAs are under
negotiation. These agreements open up new markets for Vietnam, and lower trade
barriers while reducing tariffs and harmonizing regulations, and technology transfer,
knowledge, and expertise from other countries. Therefore, Vietnam's export industry
has seen clear changes.

16
2. Improve and innovate technology, strongly apply high
technology to production products
Vietnam needs to implement policies to
encourage research and development
(R&D), provide tax incentives for
innovative businesses, facilitate technology
transfer between research organizations
and businesses, and Strongly apply high
technology to production products. This is
the key factor that promotes economic
growth in the long run while enhancing
international competition and opening up Source: en.vietnamplus.vn
opportunities for new and growing
industries.

3. Improve the quality of education, skills, and labor


qualifications

Vietnam needs to ensure that labor capacity has knowledge, skills, and qualifications
consistent with the requirements of the labor market. Focus on training high-quality
human resources, discovering and fostering talents; and have outstanding policies to
attract and use domestic and foreign talents, experts, and scientists.This helps provide
highly capable, flexible human resources that adapt to economic and technological
changes, contributing to improving national competitiveness.

Source: WENR - World Education Services

17
Group 3's report INS2005.05

D. CONCLUSION

Our research has provided a more general overview of the


current economic situation of the US and Vietnam.
America is a country that strongly develops international trade,
including imports. However, currently, due to changes in
domestic demand, imports exceed exports, causing a chronic
trade deficit. This poses significant challenges for the US.
For Vietnam, as a country with abundant natural resources and
human resources, Vietnam has developed quite strongly in the
export segment. In recent years, Vietnam's export structure has
shifted from agricultural products to machinery and electronic
components based on comparative advantages, gravity model
and Intẻgration trade. This shift has brought positive signals for
the Vietnamese economy. Vietnam needs to make good use of its
strengths and expand its economy.

18
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20
F. CONTRIBUTION

No Name - Code Work Rate

Team Leader
Outlook
Explaining the transformation in Vietnam’s
Nguyen Thi Nhu Quynh
1 export structure 100%
21070899
The strategy and policy implication to grow
the economy in the long term
Conclusion

Nguyen Phuong Linh Overview of Vietnam's economy


2 100%
21070386 The changes Vietnam in export structure

Definition in part 1
Nguyen Thi Mai Huong
3 The export and import in part 1 100%
21070174
The advantages in part 1

Nguyen Thi Tram Excutive summary


4 100%
21070454 Introduction

Vo Thi Khanh Huyen The disadvantages in part 1


5 100%
20070488 Balance of payment surplus/deficit

21

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