DRONE INDUSTRY MONITOR

A REVIEW OF MARKET
FORECASTS FOR THE
COMMERCIAL DRONE
AND URBAN AIR
MOBILITY MARKETS
Issue 2 – Q1 2022
CIVATAglobal – Drone Industry Monitor – Issue 2 – Q1 2022

January 2022

This report from CIVATAglobal (www.civataglobal.org) reviews the most

recent market forecasts for the commercial drone and urban air mobility
sectors.

Part one: The market for commercial drones

Industry forecasters are continuing to offer widely different views of the scale and predicted
growth rate of the commercial UAV sector. The small UAS market, based on the latest
forecast-of-forecasts, is predicted to grow at an average of 25.8% compound annual growth
rate over the next few years, slightly down on the 27.7% average recorded in the July 2021
report. However, perhaps more importantly from the UTM market viewpoint, BVLOS market
for drones will grow at a rate of 71.1% CAGR globally, according to Drone Industry Insights.

Figure one: Drone industry forecasts

Forecaster Years Market Growth rate

ABI Research 2020-2030 Small UAS CAGR 25%

FAA 2020-2040 Commercial UAS fleet CAGR 20%
Frost & Sullivan 2019-2023 Global commercial CAGR 4.3%
UAS fleet
DRONEII 2021-2026 Global drone fleet CAGR 9.4%
Gartner 2019/2020 Global commercial CAGR 50%
UAS fleet
Grand View 2021-2028 Commercial drones CAGR 57.5%
Fortune Business Insights 2020-2026 Global sUAS fleet CAGR 15.92%

International Data 2020-2025 Global drone industry CAGR 33.3%

Corporation (IDC) (including software)
Market and Markets 2021-2026 Global UAV market CAGR 16.4%
Teal 2022-2030 Global drone industry CAGR 14.1%
Technavio 2021-2025 Commercial drones CAGR 36.73%
Meticulous Research 2022-2029 Delivery drones CAGR 40%

In January 2021 Teal Group’s 2021/2022 World Civil UAS Market Profile and Forecast projects
that non-military UAS production will jump from USD5.6 billion a year to USD18.9 billion by
2030, a 14.1% compound annual growth rate in constant dollars – down from 15.6% in its
previous forecast. “Total civil UAS purchases will reach USD121 billion over that decade. The
study includes annual forecasts of commercial, consumer and civil government systems and
individual submarkets….. Delivery is expected to be the leading sector in the United States by
2030. Agriculture will be the leading sector overseas by 2030 thanks to heavy Chinese
investment in subsidizing agricultural drone spraying and increasingly capable but more
affordable UAS moving into the sector, particularly for smaller farms….Industrial inspection
has begun to emerge as a major commercial drone market over the next decade.
Construction will be the largest portion of that industrial inspection market, according to the
Teal study. All 10 of the largest worldwide construction firms are deploying or experimenting
with systems and will be able to quickly deploy fleets worldwide. Industrial inspection also
includes other major segments such as energy, mining and railroads. Other important
commercial UAS segments include general photography, communications, insurance, and
entertainment.

Also in January 2021, Meticulous Research published its market research report “Delivery
Drones Market by Type (Multi-rotor, Fixed-wing, Hybrid VTOL), Payload (Less than 2 KG, 2-5
KG), Range (Less than 25 km, More than 25 km), End User (Healthcare, Retailers and E-

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commerce, Logistics), and Geography — Global Forecasts to 2028”. The company is

predicting the delivery drones market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 40% from 2021–2028
to reach USD1.29 billion by 2028.

The growing adoption of delivery drones in countries such as China, South Korea, and Japan
has boosted the demand for delivery drones in the APAC region. The demand for delivery
drones is expected to increase in Asia-Pacific due to the rapid growth of online shopping
platforms, which increases the demand for instant parcel delivery. North America is
expected to witness the fastest growth during the forecast period. The increasing investments
by key players to promote parcel drone delivery service platforms and the increasing
government measures to support the use of drone delivery services are the key factors
driving the growth of the drone delivery market in North America.

The more-than 5 Kg segment is expected to grow at the highest CAGR during the forecast
period. The more-than 25 Km range segment is expected to grow at the highest CAGR
during the forecast period.

Rate (CAGR) for a global drone market that it currently estimates to be worth USD26.3 billion
in 2021. This means that drones are on their way to become a USD41.4 billion industry by 2026.

According to the Drone Market Report, the drone applications in the energy industry are on
path to earn just under USD5.9 billion throughout the globe. Other industries such as
construction and agriculture are not far behind, and some industries related to warehousing
and insurance will grow at a more rapid pace in the next 5 years.

Drone services, such as mapping and inspections among dozens of others, represent roughly
78% of global drone-related revenue and are the main driving force in the market. Some of
these also experienced a positive impact from the pandemic by assisting with the remote
delivery of coronavirus test kits and vaccines that allowed people to keep a safe distance
and avoid infection. Moreover, drone hardware is forecasted to experience strong growth as
well, despite the fact that this report excludes passenger drones that have made headlines
throughout 2021 through companies like Joby, Archer and Lilium.

Regionally, Asia and North America are currently the strongest markets, led by China and the
United States respectively. However, developing countries in South America and Asia will
experience the fastest growth above 11% CAGR.

Later in the year the company published its BVLOS Operations Report 2021, predicting the
BVLOS market for drones will grow at a rate of 71.1% CAGR globally. The report finds the
market for rural BVLOS operations is and will remain larger than the urban market, though the
urban market will grow faster. It identifies Asia as the largest market although South America
will be the fastest-growing one.
The commercial drone market size is expected to grow by USD28.54 billion and record a
CAGR of 36.73% during 2021-2025, according to a December 2021 Technavio
report Commercial Drones Market by Product, End-user, and Geography – Forecast and
Analysis 2021-25.

The post-pandemic market report has assessed the shift in consumer behaviour and
has identified and explored upcoming trends, according to Technavio. The report says North
America will register the highest growth rate of 42.83% among the other regions. Therefore,
the commercial drones market in North America is expected to garner significant business
opportunities for the vendors during the forecast period. Other key markets include the UK,
China, Canada, France and Japan.

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Meanwhile in August 2021 Coherent Market Insights published its forecast for the global
market for delivery drones. According to the company, this is expected to be valued at
USD5.6 billion by 2028, at a compound annual growth rate of 41.3 percent over the forecast
period (2021-2028),

The report says companies like Google, Uber, Matternet, Aria Insights and UPS are focused on
adopting drones for package deliveries. Furthermore, increasing use of delivery drones in
various industries such as healthcare, food, and others is driving growth of the global delivery
drones market. The outbreak of Covid-19 has positively influenced the global delivery drones
market growth, where the pandemic has increased demand “to deliver goods to the
customer without human involvement.”

Among the different types of drones, rotor-powered gained the highest market share last
year and is expected to retain this share over the forecast period, “owing to flexibility in
operation, ease in use, and low maintenance cost.” Furthermore, increasing demand for
delivery drones from commercial, residential, healthcare, and other sectors are expected to
boost growth of the segment. Asia Pacific is the fastest-growing region in the delivery drones
market. The growth of this area is mainly attributed to the presence of China and India.

The fast-growing economies in this region offer growth opportunities and why, major online
retail companies are looking forward to reducing their transportation time by using delivery
drone.

The conclusions of the 2020 Global UAS Ops survey, conducted by Blyenburgh & Co in the
context of the EU-funded AW Drones project suggested that in the near future a significant
decrease in visual line of sight (VLOS) operations (42% to 25.7%) will take place and a
significant increase in BVLOS (from 19.8% to 34.2%) will take place.

Figure two: the 2020 Global UAS Ops survey

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According to Business Insider (https://www.businessinsider.com/drone-industry-analysis-

market-trends-growth-forecasts?r=US&IR=T) the drone services market size is expected to
grow to USD63.6 billion by 2025, and Insider Intelligence predicts consumer drone shipments
will hit 29 million by 2021.

Sales of US consumer drones to dealers surpassed USD1.25 billion in 2020, according to

Statista. Goldman Sachs forecasts the total drone market size to be worth USD100 billion—
supported by this growing demand for drones from the commercial and government sectors.

According to the April 2021 Commercial Drone Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By
Product from Grandview Research: “The global commercial drone market size is anticipated
to reach USD 501.4 billion by 2028, registering a CAGR of 57.5% from 2021 to 2028.”

MarketsandMarkets’ UAV Market by Point of Sale, Systems, Platform (Civil & Commercial, and
Defense & Governement), Function, End Use, Application, Type, Mode of Operation, MTOW,
Range, and Region - Global Forecast to 2026 reports: “The overall UAV (OEM+ aftermarket) is
estimated to be USD 27.4 billion in 2021 and is projected to reach USD 58.4 billion by 2026, at
a CAGR of 16.4% from 2021 to 2026. North America is projected to account for the largest
size of the UAV market from 2021 to 2026.”

“The commercial segment of the market is projected to grow at the highest CAGR of 28.0%
during the forecast period; the growth of this segment can be attributed to the
developments and advancements in drone technology.”

Figure three: Marketandmarket UAV industry forecast

In October 2020 Global tech market advisory firm ABI Research predicted the sUAS industry
would be worth USD92 billion by 2030, with a CAGR rate of 25% between 2020-2035. Of this
revenue, 70% is in the commercial sector (USD63 billion). “The largest number of drone
registrations are currently in the USA, where the FAA tracks 1.7 million consumer drone pilots
and 400,000 commercial operators. China is catching up with 400,000 registered drones,
while the European Union (EU) has over 1 million registrants. Among the biggest markets are

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security and industrial inspection, with growing opportunities in delivery, agriculture, and
emergency services.”

“We have gone through various phases of the drone industry, from its genesis in the military,
to the proliferation of consumer drones. Since Chinese developer DJI monopolised that
space, the attention has shifted to commercial applications,” explains Rian Whitton, Senior
Robotics Analyst at ABI Research. “While some of the initial hype has subsided, providers and
end users are refocusing on developing the necessary supporting infrastructure and services
to make drone technology viable at scale.”

In April 2020 Frost & Sullivan published its latest market analysis for the global commercial
drone sector, Global Commercial UAS Market Outlook, 2020, concluding that the industry is
transitioning from a nascent to a growth stage. “With the surge in demand for commercial
drones by the professional segment, unit shipment is estimated to rise at a compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%, reaching 2.91 million units by 2023 from 2.44 million units in 2019.
By 2023, North America will remain the largest market for commercial UAS with a total of
32.3%-unit demand, followed by APAC and Europe at 29.1% and 23.3%, respectively.

“Advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) for both autonomous flight and
data processing, as well as platforms that have unique capabilities such as long endurance
flights and conducting indoor/confined spaces inspections, are key trends inflating market
growth.”

According to DroneDeploy’s February 2020 state of industry survey, drones “are poised for
rapid scale and growth in 2020 and the decade ahead”. Drone Deploy surveyed 140
customers across 10+ industries to find out how they use drones and the benefits they
provide.

According to the survey, “90% of respondents expect to increase or maintain their spend on
drones and drone software in 2020. Over half (53%) expect to increase and 37% expect to
spend the same amount. Almost a quarter (23.3%) of respondents expect that spend to grow
by more than 50%. Only 5% thought it would decline.

When it comes to applications: “Protection against risks of all kinds drives 69% of use cases,
including increased safety (29%), risk management (21%), and compliance (19%). Nearly
two-thirds of respondents said that they use drones to “improve operations” and “increase
productivity”. The top three motivators for investing in drones were desires for increased
productivity (68%), improved operations (66%), and reduced cost(56%).

Customers of DroneDeploy noted the top three benefits were innovation (59%), increased
efficiency/speed (57%), and cost-effectiveness (50%). Benefits following closely behind were
competitive advantage (44%), improved customer relationships (35%), and safety (25%).

DroneDeploy also noted the survey shows the “businesses do not adopt new technology as
rapidly as consumers. Companies take deliberate steps to ensure technology is secure, that it
will bring quantifiable ROI, and that it will be adopted easily by employees. But consumers
aren’t the main opportunity for drone businesses: the CNBC piece reports that the consumer
sector will make up just 17% of the drone market in 2020. Rather, the untapped potential for
drones lies beyond hardware, hype, and the consumer sector. Businesses, more than ever,
are finding value in drone software and in the data generated by the software.”

DroneDeploy conducted the survey in December 2019 via an online survey form to its active
customers from a sample of over 145 companies across 10+ industries in English. Respondents
are paying members of DroneDeploy’s leading drone data platform.

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In 2020, worldwide shipments of Internet of Things (IoT) enterprise drones will total 526,000
units, an increase of 50% from 2019, according to market forecaster Gartner, Inc. Global
shipments are forecast to reach 1.3 million units by 2023.

Figure four: Gartner market forecast

“The construction sector is an early adopter of drones, which causes construction monitoring
to be the largest use case by shipments worldwide across the forecast,” said Kay
Sharpington, principal analyst at Gartner. “Shipments are estimated to reach 210,000 drones
in 2020, and more than double by 2023. Drones are taking over tasks such as site surveying
and earthworks management as they are faster and safer to carry out with a drone than on
foot.”

To save costs when surveying sites, the number of global construction employees per drone
will decrease from 2,400 to 640 between 2018 and 2020.

According to the company: “In the short term, most use cases will be based around
surveillance and monitoring due to the technical complexity of other applications. In 2020,
the second and third use cases by drone shipments will be fire services monitoring and
insurance investigation. The insurance industry is the second largest use case by shipments
with 46,000 drone shipments forecast for 2020. Shipments are expected to nearly triple by
2023, to reach 136,000 that year.

“Drones are used to carry out inspections on buildings and structures after a claim has been
made, to assess the extent and cause of the damage. They can also be used to evaluate
the type and condition of the building when providing an insurance quote,” said Ms.
Sharpington. “Their benefits are valuable. For example, they reduce the cost of scaffolding,
ladders and employee time and provide a comprehensive photographic record of the
building condition.”

To survey claim areas at a lower cost, Gartner expects insurance drones will grow from one
per 152,000 people in 2018 to one per 72,000 people worldwide in 2020.

Police and firefighting agencies globally are deploying drones in public safety operations,
wildfire management, crime scene investigation, and search and rescue operations. Gartner

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estimates that the number of drones used by police and firefighters will grow from one per
210,000 people to one per 47,000 people between 2018 and 2020.

“Fire service drones use cameras and thermal imaging to identify fire sources, extreme heat
areas, trapped people and the positions of firefighters in the field,” said Ms. Sharpington.
“Consequently, firefighting agencies can deploy resources in the right areas in emergencies
and investigate incidents while minimizing risk to lives.”

Drones used for retail deliveries will provide customers with rapid service and allow retailers
access to customers in remote areas. However, the regulatory restrictions and logistical
challenge of coordinating flight paths, managing airspace over densely populated areas
and managing various payloads means that retail, overall, is a longer-term opportunity for
drones.

Drone shipments will total 25,000 in 2020 and will rise to 122,000 units in 2023. Following this
predicted trajectory, the biggest opportunity for retail will come after 2023. In addition,
Gartner estimates that the number of employees per drone will decrease from 73,000 global
retail employees per drone in 2018 to 18,000 global retail employees per drone in 2020.

A study by Fortune Business Insights published in March 2020 expected the small drone
market to increase from USD6.46 billion in 2018 to USD22.55 billion in 2026. The company’s
Aerospace & Defense division says this reflects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
15.92% over the forecast period.

A summary by Fortune Business Insights reports North America as the largest market, due to
growing investments in the small drone by several business firms and rising research and
development. Border surveillance and maritime surveillance is also boosting the market.

The Asia Pacific meanwhile shows fastest growth rates, attributed to high demand from
emerging economies including China, India and Japan. China is the lead manufacturer of
drones and has a wide range of applications and strong domestic policy which supports
usage of small drones.

Growth in Europe is also strong, with the UK revealing one of the largest fleets of small drones.
The Middle East represents considerable growth opportunity and commercial applications
are emerging in Africa and Latin America.

The study looks in-depth at market size, market drivers, segmentation, application, analysis by
region, and lists key players with an analysis of market dynamics and the competitive
landscape for manufacturers of small drones. The study is called: Small Drones Market
Size, Share & Industry Analysis, by Type (Fixed-Wing, Rotary-Wing, and Hybrid/Transitional), By
Power Source (Lithium-ion cells, Hybrid Fuel cells, and Solar cells), By Size (Micro, and Mini &
Nano), By Application (Civil & Commercial, Military, Homeland Security, and Consumer) and
Regional Forecast, 2015-2026.

According to a September 2020 study published by Polaris Market Research the commercial
UAV market is anticipated to reach over USD 15,624.7 million by 2026. In 2017, the rotary
blade UAV segment dominated the global market, in terms of revenue. North America is
expected to be the leading contributor to the global market revenue during the forecast
period. According to a company press release:

“The increasing applications of commercial UAVs in industries such as agriculture, media and
entertainment, and mining have boosted the growth of the market. Use of UAVs in
performing high risk tasks further support the growth of this market. Additionally, the
technological innovation in the market in terms of miniaturization & improvement of
components further boosts the adoption of commercial UAVs. Increasing investments by

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vendors in technological advancements coupled with decreasing prices of components

would reduce the overall cost of UAVs in the coming years, further supporting the market
growth. However, security and privacy concerns are expected to hamper market growth
during the forecast period. Growing demand from emerging economies, and increasing
awareness are factors expected to provide numerous growth opportunities in the coming
years.”

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Part two: The market for urban air mobility

The first challenge in forecasting this market is one of definitions. While many eVTOL
manufacturers prefer to see this sector as a new sub-market to the legacy aviation
passenger transport market – using many standards and regulations applicable to the rotor-
craft industry – the authors of this report believe UAM should be considered more widely than
passenger and large cargo carrying transports. It should encompass small UAS on missions
including transport of packages but also involved in other urban aerial activities such as
inspection, surveillance and first responder operations.

Figure five: Urban air mobility market forecasts

Forecaster Years Market Value Growth rate

Morgan Stanley 2040 (2050) UAM USD1 trillion (9 trillion)

BIS Research 2023-2035 UAM CAGR 27.3%
Marketsandmarkets 2020-2030 UAM USD9.1 billion (2030) CAGR 13.5%
Mordor Intelligence 2021-2035 UAM US17.2 billion (2035) CAGR 17.81%
Horizon Aircraft 2050 eVTOLs USD90 billion
IDTechEx 2041 eVTOLs USD14.7 billion

However, for the sake of simplicity, this section focuses on eVTOL and eVTOL infrastructure.
According to an April 2021 white paper from Osinto and Lufthansa Innovation hub
(https://tnmt.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/2021_Mapping-the-AAM-
ecosystem_LIH_Osinto.pdf) the air taxi segment is already complex despite its nascent stage.
“There is significant integration with both the aviation (ANA, Blade, Japan Airlines) and
aerospace industries (Airbus, Boeing, Toray). We also witness significant integration with the
automotive industry (Daimler, Geely, GM, Hyundai, Stellantis, Xpeng). Capital is being
attracted from a very diverse range of sources: from angel investors (Larry Page) and startup
accelerators (EIC Accelerator, Plug and Play) to corporates (Deutsche Bahn, Intel, Tencent,
Toyota) and venture capital funds (Atomico, Levitate Capital, Zhen Fund). Corporate capital
has come from industries as diverse as construction, defense, energy, finance, information
technology, and transport.”

While it is understandable at this stage of development over 95% of UAM capital investment
is aimed at platforms, eVTOL (and urban drone) infrastructure development requirements will
be substantial.

In March 2021 the Demand and Capacity Optimisation for U-space programme (DACUS
project) published its Concept of Operations for “Demand and Capacity Balancing” (DCB)
for drones within an urban environment. As part of its studies, the DACUS consortium has
estimated how many take-off and landing areas (TOLAs) might be needed in Europe over
the next ten to 15 years for drones and passenger carrying vehicles. “As a test case we
applied the calculation to the population that is living in the metropolitan area of Toulouse
(about 1.2 million people). In total a number of roughly 350 – 450 stationary TOLAs can be
expected there.” This suggests that an average of one TOLA for each 3,000 residents in
European urban areas, based on the Toulouse case, might be needed by 2036.

Figure six: The DACUS study looked at TOLA requirements for Toulouse, Madrid and Frankfurt

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“This allows for a first impression on TOLA numbers that can be expected for large, urbanized
areas. Nevertheless, it should be mentioned that this estimation can be further improved in
the course of the project. As an example, this calculation does not take into account density
specific parameters or additional private services other than transport, which we expect to
be the most influential on the stationary hub amount. Also the question of dynamic TOLAs
had to be neglected, as the level of complexity is much higher and based on the mission
specific drone deployment areas and business cases.”

Morgan Stanley’s May 2021 report (https://assets.verticalmag.com/wp-

content/uploads/2021/05/Morgan-Stanley-URBAN_20210506_0000.pdf) concludes the total
addressable market for UAM will be worth USD1 trillion in 2040 but USD9 trillion in 2050.

An October 2021 report from McKinsey & Company reports the influx of eVTOL aircraft orders
in 2021 is impressive, but manufacturers should not celebrate just yet. The report states, “The
first nine months of 2021 saw a huge volume of activity for future air mobility (FAM)
manufacturers. Orders and options for more than 5,800 aircraft were placed between
January and early October, totalling USD20.2 billion. That far outpaces the volume for
conventional aircraft during the same time period (554 orders and options total, or 10
percent the volume of FAM).”

And goes on, “Before manufacturers pop the Champagne, however, they should consider
some historical precedents. In past periods of disruptive innovation in the industry—such as
the advent of supersonic aircraft and the early days of the very light jet—many early orders
and options were never filled.”

After drilling down on the numbers, the researchers point out, “To be clear, large demand
volume is a positive for the industry. Orders and options serve as an important signal of
demand to manufacturers and suppliers, and they give companies valuable credibility in the
eyes of investors. Yet this demand is not ironclad.”

The report says, “Of the USD20.2 billion in total FAM demand this year, about USD4.8 billion
are options, which buyers can walk away from with no financial or legal consequence. (They
simply don’t exercise the option to buy.) The remaining USD15.4 billion (approximately 75
percent) are traditional orders, but these are also far from certain. Many of these are non-
binding and have a broad range of requirements attached to them to become binding.”
And continues, “Furthermore, almost none have any kind of down payment associated with
them.”

The summary ends with a sobering caution: “The bottom line: A fast build-up of demand is an
encouraging sign. But the only metric that truly matters will be final delivery of certified
aircraft.”

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A June 2021 report from BIS Research projects the market to have a significant growth of
CAGR 27.37% based on the values during the forecast period from 2023 to 2035. “The Asia-
Pacific region is expected to dominate the market by 2035 with a share of 39.27%. The Asia-
Pacific region includes China, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, but China is expected to
acquire a major share in 2035 due to the increase in the population and traffic congestion in
megacities in the country.
The UAM market is projected to grow from USD2.6 billion in 2020 to USD9.1 billion by 2030, at a
CAGR of 13.5% from 2020 to 2030, according to a 2021 MarketsandMarkets forecast. The
infrastructure segment is projected to at the highest CAGR from 2025 to 2030, reaching
USD2.8 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 23.4% from 2025-2030. In terms of platforms, the fixed-
wing hybrid segment is projected to grow at the highest CAGR from 2025 to 2030. “To carry
passengers, the platform needs higher stability to ensure safety of passengers on board,
especially for remotely piloted or fully autonomous aircraft.” Meanwhile, the Europe UAM
market is projected to grow at the highest rate during the forecast period. Countries in this
region, such as Germany, UK, and France, are investing heavily in the development and
procurement of advanced eVTOL systems for commercial operations. Advancements in the
manufacturing capability of emerging economies in this region will drive the market.

Mordor Intelligence reports the UAM market is projected to grow to USD 17,269.71 million by
2035, registering a CAGR of 17.81% during the forecast period (2021 - 2035).

“The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on all industries on a global
scale…. Prior to the outbreak, the UAM sector, which is still in its formative stages, was
witnessing a healthy growth with around USD 1 billion being invested during the first few
months of 2020, most notably the USD 590 million invested by Toyota into Joby Aviation and
EHang’s IPO valuation amounting to USD 650 million. Moreover, the FAA is currently engaged
with manufacturers of more than 15 eVTOL aircraft. Uber Air, EHang, Volocopter, Joby, and
Lilium are all planning to launch commercial passenger operations within the next three to
five years.”

In April 2021 Horizon Aircraft commissioned a research report to ask senior private equity and
venture capital professionals on their views on the future of the eVTOL Industry. The research
revealed 71 percent expect there to be more than 160,000 commercial air taxis operating
around the world by 2050, while 17 percent anticipate there could be over 200,000. The
findings also reveal that in 30 years’ time, 36 percent said they expect the UAM market to
generate revenues of around USD90 billion a year, while 46 percent believe it will be more
than this.

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Figure seven: The Horizon Aircraft study

Brandon Robinson, CEO and Co-Founder of Horizon Aircraft said, “At the end of 2020, the
renowned global consultancy firm Roland Berger published a report claiming the UAM
market will have around 160,000 commercial air taxis by 2050, and the sector will be
generating around $90 billion a year in revenue. These are lofty estimates.” He continued,
“But our research suggests many professional investors believe the market could be even
bigger than this, possibly fuelled by a stream of exciting news coming out of the sector.”

The March 2021 IDTechEx report entitled Air Taxis: Electrical Vertical Take-Off and Landing
Aircraft 2021-2041 forecasts the market for eVTOL air taxis to grow to USD14.7 billion by 2041.

Figure eight: The IDTechEX study

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