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Short Term Top Down Analysis

short term top down analysis

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41 views9 pages

Short Term Top Down Analysis

short term top down analysis

Uploaded by

ajaybk754
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Short term top down analy: Commerc eas Bes Surat 2 a orn Pras Paes a Analysis roca Berry Moot pti eee rot pia so going through all these steps leads me to whether I'm going to be a buyer or seller and going through this yourself yout! see that it's going to put you in sync with the most likely large price range expansion you're not going to get every move every single day isn't going to be up when it's bullish and every single day its going to be down when it's bearish but wee focusing on where time and price meet when economic drivers come out it helps form that Weekly profile that we're expecting it may be a Monday low of the week or it may be a Tuesday classic low of the week or it could be a Wednesday low of the week where Tuesday fall short of a buy level we were waiting for but starts to rally and trips us up and then trades lower again into Wednesday and creating a lower low and that becomes the low of the week when i's bullish so there's a lot of things that you have to weigh out and once we arrive at all these components we will will eventually lead to a specific daily bias and itll be defined from that higher time frame banking time frame where the bank's been spend most time looking at its the daily chart so you want to transpose all these ideas and Analysis and levels over to our four hour chart Commercial hedging Commercial Hedging ‘The commercial hedging so in the process of developing an opinion of smart money and they'e in their respective actions in the market I refer to the last 12 months of the commercial hedgers commitment of Traders net Holdings or if that range is very narrow or it can't discem from looking at 12 months I'll go down to six months and itll give me a quarterly to quarterly effect where | can see the other range they are working with them but usually I'm going to adopt the 12-month range so whatever today is | go back ‘12 months from that day and it's always wherever youre looking at the price right now go back 12 months and you get a dynamic perspective on where they're at in terms of their hedging now what I do is | determine the highest and the lowest readings in the cot line chart for the commercials not anything else but this commercial is not the large speculators just the commercial hedgers and then | visually divide that range in half now | consider the net position bullish if above halfway mark of the 12-month range and bearish if we're below the halfway mark of the 12-month range so if I'm below itm going to be focusing (on discount arrays and looking for scenarios where the market should expand to the upside reaching for some measure of a premium. Open interest Open Interest the next thing | do is I look for open interest now prior to getting to the Daily I'm not really concemed about it when we can start looking at it in the weekly and | used to do that when | was younger and get really obsessed about it but really until | get down to the Daily I'm not really concemed about open interest so once my analysis takes me into that time frame I consider the use of it so want to see open interest decline about 15 or more when price is trading at a higher time frame discount array this is extremely bullish especially when the monthly weekly or bullish as well | want to see open interest, Increase about 1 or more when price is trading at a higher time frame premium array and if this occurs this is extremely bearish more so if the monthly and weekly are calling for lower prices as well now in between either of the above conditions for my personel Style Trading open interest is not considered In my analysis so it either has to meet one of these two criterias or I'm not going to refer to it at all. Institutional order flow ‘The monthly or weekly time frame is bearish | want to see the dally finding resistance of up-close candles ‘on The Daily and breaking through down closed candles on The Daily this is extremely embarrassed that's going to show us institutions are in control on the sell side or the buy side relative to those conditions when the monthly and or weekly time frame is bullish, | want to see the daily finding support at down, close daily candles and breaking through up close daily candles this are extremely bullish.the daily order flow is the most important one to know if you dont look at any other time frame and you just simply want to disregard weekly and monthly. 1 would advise doing that but | know a lot of you just for whatever reason dont want to look at these higher time frame charts but if you do not look at them or refer to them at least study them from an Institutional standpoint you'e really short changing yourself in your analysis and creates too myopic of a view but you have to at least start on the dally if youre not going to go any higher at least start all of your analysis on a daily chart because if you don't know what the daily charts implementing in terms of institutional bullish or bearish youre playing with Russian Roulette you don't know really what's going to happen on the lower time frames and what may look like bullishness on @ four-hour one hour less may actually just be a setup that gets you short from a daily perspective so it's very important that we follow what the institutions are doing from a daily chart and hopefully the monthly and we clear an agreement. Institutional Order Flow weekly profile when the monthly weekly or just the daily time frame if | can't get a clue as to what monthly weeks, theyre doing maybe they'e in consolidation maybe theyre neutral maybe they're conflicted maybe the monthly is expecting uh lower and weekly is not doing anything that would indicate a continuation of that or hasn't retraced enough to get in suit with it so again starting with just a daily time frame if i's calling for a bearish market | start looking for scenarios that might produce specific bearish weekly profiles now in the monthly and weekly are just or just a daily timeframe suggests the market is bullish | start looking for scenarios that might produce specific bullish weekly profiles now keep in mind the weekly range typically forms between Tuesday and Thursday that's the bulk of the weekly range there could be a low that forms on Monday and it could dilly dally around on Tuesday and then take off going through the second portion of Tuesday all of Wednesday in the first half of Thursday creating a highly week and then Friday could be just retracement that's how | internalize the weekly range when it's bullish when its bearish | internalized the Tuesday creating the high of the week and Thursdays New York open creating the low of the week and Friday and Monday being just consolidation portions or near the open of a power three type scenario and Friday being enclosed for power three for the weekly range isn't always the case but that's how | adopt all of my bear scenarios and | start there | start looking for the weekly profiles to fit that way unfortunately only asset to us in terms of forecasting weekly profiles is the calendar so using the calendar and looking for specific drivers it's going to assist you but there's no cookie cutter one fits all approach here you cant do it where it only does it this way and cantt do it another way if it was believe me | would love to show you and | would be able to show it off and be on the Internet every day doing it but I cant so the limitation is we can only do the analysis during the weekend before the market starts and then on Sunday see where we open and then watch what trades on Monday so that's why I like to sit on my hands usually in the mentorship Ive been active in Mondays sometimes or watching the market more closely than | would normally if| was just trading my own money and not being in front of anyone but | like to see what Monday does 'm willing to give up that Monday low of the week because if its going to go higher generally Tuesday is going to give me an optimal trade entry based on Monday's low and then I can get in if not Wednesday welll doit off of Tuesday's low so I'm not really concerned about getting the lowest low | just want to get in the meat of that Tuesday to Thursday portion so that's that’s like the bulk of what I'm aiming for and if | can get Tuesday's action into Thursday's New York open then I got it that's all 'm looking for and it all doesnit always unfold like that obviously but for more on weekly profiles I'm going to cancel you to go back to March's content for details about what weekly profiles exist and by looking at the economic calendar and | give you the details in there which Market profile for the weekly profile rather would unfold or likely unfold you use the economic calendar and the institutional order flow from the monthly and the weekly and now this daily stuff to get in sync ‘with what may unfold for a weekly profile and again you're never going to dial in and get it accurately every single week it doesnt it doesn't work like that but if we can get very close to what may unfold and focus around the economic calendars drivers for liquidity runs all those manipulations that we can get in sync with that we can anticipate a specific type of phenomenon occur and as long as It's in syne with our higher time frame condition or bearish or bullish bias the setups are staged for our entries will be a lot easier to anticipate using the economic calendar and forecasting the weekly profile don't expect, Precision to that degree | don't know how to get weekly profiles called every single week | have a rough idea what may unfold relative to what the economic calendar is so on the weekend before the market even opens up you see me do usually one day at a time the moming of or the day of our analysis you don't want to do that you want to start in the weekend like today at the time of this recording its a Saturday so what | would like to sit down and do is look at the economic calendar for the entire week and see where the drivers are for the week in terms of what session whether it be London or New York and what day of the week and see what type of phenomenon May unfold relative to the premium raise and discount arrays that's in the marketplace right now if 'm bearish and | think that there's going to be a slow start to the week because the economic calendar is rather quiet until around Tuesday New York open well guess what we may end up seeing a market reversal in the New York open that particular day and starts the weekly range so its a lot of scenarios that you have to play around with and | don't have and I've never been able to create a systematic approach for forecasting weekly profiles | just know once the week starts and | got usually Monday behind me | got about a 60 likelihood that I'll be able to determine if | have the higher time frame right what the weekly profile is going to be the it increases if 'm wrong on Tuesday because then | know pretty much it goes into 70 likelihood and 70 with Wednesday Thursday and Friday's Uh trading left in the week | can usually find something before the Friday explodes it may not be the whole once that one kill | was looking for but | can do a day trade or | can scalp the rest of the weekly range and get you know whatever I'm looking for for a weekly objective but the main thing | lke to uh focus in on is that Weekly opening the weekly opening price on Sunday I start there but | also look at the midnight opening price on Monday and | take that Monday midnight open and | take that opening price and I'l take it across the entire weekly every day all throughout the entire week I'm looking at what we're doing relative to the opening price Monday midnight New York time so I'm disregarding the entire first portion of the trading that starts on Sunday and I'm looking exactly when Monday begins in the states the US at midnight that opening price | use that also for power three as well so | use Sunday's opening price that's our natural opening to forex and or | use the Monday opening price at midnight so the opening price at midnight Monday New York time 1 use that for a weekly opening price as well and | want to see what price does across the week relative to that opening price so I have two opening prices that I'm looking at for the weekly profile a weekly range the standard natural Sunday's opening price and then I have midnight opening on Monday so it's midnight in Monday moming in New York time as soon as that price is printed | take that and I see if we can trade above it or below it for the weekly range and honestly look for the same thing for the Sunday so Sunday's opening or Monday midnight opening price New York time | want to see if 'm bullish preferably 1 want to see price go down below those prices and seek some kind of a discount array or if 'm bearish relative to higher time frame monthly and weekly if I'm expecting lower prices | want to see price trade up above both of those prices or at least one of them that makes sense in terms of discount to Premium so if it gets up to a premium array above that opening price relative to some of these natural opening or midnight in New York Monday morning whatever that opening price is printed then the easiest way to do it is get an hourly chart open and whatever the opening price is on the hourly at midnight Monday for whatever pair or Market you're looking at that’s the opening price | use for the weekly. Intermarket Anal MT PaO ARS VEU coast te te ccceT Te Rom ruc itt Tg ewer Ure ome ate t Tite BOR Nets reir look for smt Divergence and I start using intermarket analysis as | explained in previous uh first two lessons here for this month but I'm really specifically looking for smt diversions to confirm an opinion | have on price now if m bullish obviously uh the cable and | want to be seeing either a higher low when the dollar makes a higher high or | want to see a failed higher high in a dollar when the cable has made a lower load that could be a liquidity run for cell stops and then a turtle soup long sol'm looking for smt diversions at this point from daily young into four hour because | think that's where the heart of its Effectiveness exists. PD ARRAY Matrix DP Nec ys WW Elneb.< then Igo through the daily and work my way through the four-hour doing the PD array Matrix note all the discount and premium arrays and again not every single array is going to exist you may not get a fair value Gap or liquidity void there may not be a mitigation block but the ones that are there you highlight them because when price meets that and also, we start looking at other things in the next lesson for deviations you get a Confluence of different things that you can take trades on but we have to know what the premium and discount arrays are otherwise youre not going to be able to calibrate your key levels for ‘where the trades actually reach for entry or exits. Market Structure | Define the current market structure again like I've mentioned in the first two lessons but !'m looking for Breakers on a daily time frame more than any other because knowing this and where they exist in price action on a daily they can alert you to where the next intermediate term price Wing is going to form 50 if you go through price action and you look at how price trades from bullish breaker to bearish breaker there's alot of movement generally between those two reference points it's the meet in the middle that's where the the bulk of the trading opportunities exist you don't have to get the highest high right before bearish breaker forms you may not get to those types of trades right now but focus in on the daily bullish and bearish Breakers and trade in between those two price points and what youll end up seeing is its very easy to find setups in that because i's directly based it's slanted on one side of the marketplace it's Usually one-way flows and i's easy to wait for power three scenarios like when you're bearish look for the open the rally up for Judah swings sell short and London and expansion down into New York into London close reverse if its been trading off of a bullish breaker on The Daily and we can start seeing that the daily time frame see an open trade down in London for a judo swing and then rally up going into New York close or or London clothes for the day so it gives us a lot of context if you operate just in those parameters now obviously there's a lot of other trades you can take but for training wheels purposes only If you start there looking at your conditions like that youll see that you're trading many times in the right side of the institutional order flow. Market Structure and then finally obviously if we've already gone through the work of doing a PD array matrix knowing ‘what's above us in terms of where price May reach and what's below us in terms of where price May reach, we calibrate those levels to the nearest 10 or nearest five level and I've already went through this slide many times already into previous teachings so I'm not going to deliver you with it the longest short of it is you want to calibrate those levels around the PD arrays in terms of premium and discount Daily bias defined DENY Bias Defined and then finally obviously if we've already gone through the work of doing a pdra matrix knowing what's above us in terms of where price May reach and what's below us in terms of where price May reach we calibrate those levels to the nearest 10 or nearest five level and I've already went through this slide many times already into previous teachings so I'm not going to deliver you with it the longest short of itis is you want to calibrate those levels around the PD arrays in terms of premium and discount now youre going to end with will arve at your daily bias | get questioned a lot how do you know what the daily bias is going to be | think what the natural assumption is when | say the daily bias when | know what the daily bias is based on my analysis everyone especially those that are outside our mentorship group they assume that if fm bullish I'm buying every single day and that's where retail thinking comes in if were bullish on a market doesnt mean that we buy every single day it has to come to some measure of a discount array at a specific time of day it has to do this many times with the manipulation aspect by the economic calendar it doesn't need to but i's usually better if it does so so now if we have Blended all the elements that we've learned so far up to this point all the way through the mentorship to now you will know how to find and determine the daily bias and again just because we're bullish doesn't mean we'te buying every day and Just because we're bearish we dont sell every day it we are still waiting for conditions to meet that expectation if we're bullish we're waiting for Discount arrays to be traded to and then execution we go along when we're bearish we wait for premium arrays to be tagged during a specific time of the day sowe have time and price meeting and when it happens boom We execute so after referring to commercial hedging considerations and referring to open interest determining institutional order flow on The Dally going into the four hour anticipating specific weekly profiles and again Im going to count you to go back to March's content because it helps you arrive at what those profiles specifically are because there's so many variables | could literally make this volume or this introduction to moving daily into the four hour | can make a sixto-sever-hour video and it would inundate you with more information that’s really necessary because all of this has to be leamed by you going in and looking for it but use the information | Provided in the March content where | taught weekly profiles and youll know what the parameters are based on all the things you've learned so far confirm the analysis with Market correlation and intermarket Analysis specifically looking for SMT Divergence now selecting a portion of Market structure to frame a trade-in so I'm looking at where we are in terms of the range and | defined a PD arrays inside that range to arrive at key levels and once I've done this what | have ultimately arrived at is a directional based analysis, (on a daily time frame and then | take that and | transpose that to the four hour chart so now | have not provided you any charts Ive not given you any kind of hand holding here and the reason why and I've said this from the beginning the PDFs are not going to do anything for anyone that hasnt gone through every single month of the content you got to go through each individual study you got to go through each Individual presentation and learn and study it now | already know what's going to happen so right now if | were not to continue and give you the next lesson and | said here's the here's the thread in our Forum start asking me questions for things that you're stuck on youre going to ask me can you have a one-on- cone session with me can you help me do this I'm still unsure about this and I'm going to show you the reason why youe doing that is because you want me to take you by the hand and literally take you to the point of understanding what | can't do without you doing all this type of analysis religiously that’s the only ‘way you're going to get it and that's why its expensive it takes time now in the next lesson 'm actually going to give you my pet trading pattems this is exactly what | trade I don't do anything else there's a lot of other ways to trade but I'm going to tell you exactly what Ido when | trade with my money when | trade with the analysis behind me all those ideas that | use when | do detailed analysis when I think i's going to be areally strong run if | say this is going to be a low resistance liquidity run or if say this is a high probability condition or setup that's not an invitation for you to put money into it that's not aninvitation for you to mimic or copy me but itis a condition where | have arrived at the highest level of an opinion based ‘on what I've done in terms of my analysis and | stil could be very wrong and you've seen me do that because I've been with you every single day and I've used the expression the low resistance liquidity run and | think two or three of them have not panned out and that's fine that's absolutely fine because i's going to happen to you as well youre going to read it wrong or the market is simply not going to perform like you expected or i's going to do nothing sothere's always a green on the roulette table we can be betting on black and red comes up or you know we can put red and black on and green comes up and there's no way around getting it youte going to get a loss somewhere and don't be fearful of it long and short use these ideas to come down from atop down using all the information | taught you specifically because every one of these things I've taught in mentorship in Greater detail with more specifics behind it if you do not watch the videos that accompanying the live sessions and start blending in some of the things | tuck in in terms of commentary because | already know what's going to happen this is some goober is going to try to play Robin Hood and make this content available to somebody else or or the public and I'lldo everything I can to find out who you are but | have to create the content with that in mind so it requires a lot of work on your part still because a PDF file you shared like this could it be helpful to somebody yeah, a little bit but you're not going to know everything by going through it because there's alot of things that you need to understand that are conceptually explained in previous teachings a lot of its inside the commentary during live sessions a lot of you just had an epiphany about market profiles a lot of you had a discovery about Market maker buy profiles and cell profiles just the weakness this past week we've done live sessions in I've got about 30 different emails from people that said ! Understand how to find market maker buy profiles now it made it it clicked me | finally got it and | haven't really said anything new it's just because youve gone through all the mentorship teachings and now youre employing the PD arrays because that's what I told you that’s the missing element the thing that nobody understands how to use with the ICT Concepts and in the free tutorials and stuff its the PD aray Matrix where we are in terms of that premium and discount array and which levels are going to be there because remember look at everybody asks the same questions which order block do | buy which one am | looking at all that’s answered with the PD array Matrix you have to work from the entire time frame down and in this time frame on The Daily now we're getting to the meat of what the Market's most likely going to do because we have two higher time frames above us it’s going to either support and push price or it’s going to change directions and welll see that directional change on The Daily and four hours so until the next lesson,

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