Tut 2
Tut 2
2 The three time estimates (to, tl, tp ) for each activity are for the PERT network
shown in the figure below are given in the table.
Duration, weeks
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
A 10 12 20
B 5 15 19
C 10 15 26
D 15 20 25
E 5 10 15
F 4 8 12
G 5 10 15
H 2 4 6
I 3 4 6
J 2 2 2
K 2 5 8
L 1 3 5
M 2 3 4
calculate:
(i) The expected time or average time for each activity (tE)
(ii) The Earliest expected time for each event (TE)
(iii)The Latest allowable occurrence time for each event (TL)
(iv) Slack for each event
(v) Critical path of the network.
3 For the given PERT network, the three time estimates are given along the activity
arrows in the figure.
i. Determine the critical path, also determine the probability of completing
the job in 20 days.
ii. What project duration will have 95% confidence of completion.
The values of Z and corresponding probability are given in the following table:
Z 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 2.0 3.0
Probability 84.13 86.43 88.9 93.92 97.92 99.87
Determine the critical path and the probability of finishing the project within the
scheduled time (a) Ts=34.67 (b) Ts=36.0