Donna's Garden Supply - Moving Average

Forecasting Moving averages - 3 period moving average

Enter the past demands in the data area

Num pds 3 To change the number of periods use the scrollbar, do not change the cell itself

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Shed Sales Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
January 10
February 12
March 13
April 16 11.66667 4.333333 4.333333 18.77778 27.08%
May 19 13.66667 5.333333 5.333333 28.44444 28.07%
June 23 16 7 7 49 30.43%
July 26 19.33333 6.666667 6.666667 44.44444 25.64%
August 30 22.66667 7.333333 7.333333 53.77778 24.44%
September 28 26.33333 1.666667 1.666667 2.777778 05.95%
October 18 28 -10 10 100 55.56%
November 16 25.33333 -9.333333 9.333333 87.11111 58.33%
December 14 20.66667 -6.666667 6.666667 44.44444 47.62%
Total 6.333333 58.33333 428.7778 303.13%
Average 0.703704 6.481481 47.64198 33.68% Fore
Bias MAD MSE MAPE 35
SE 7.826491
Next period 16 30

25

20
Value

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5

Shed Sa
not change the cell itself

Forecasting
35

30

25

20
Value

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time

Shed Sales Forecast

Donna's Garden Supply - Weighted Moving Average

Forecasting Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving average

Enter the data in the shaded area. Enter weights in
INCREASING order from top to bottom.

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Shed Sales Weights Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
January 10 1 3 periods ago
February 12 2 2 periods ago
March 13 3 1 periods ago
April 16 12.16667 3.833333 3.833333 14.69444 23.96%
May 19 14.33333 4.666667 4.666667 21.77778 24.56%
June 23 17 6 6 36 26.09%
July 26 20.5 5.5 5.5 30.25 21.15%
August 30 23.83333 6.166667 6.166667 38.02778 20.56%
September 28 27.5 0.5 0.5 0.25 01.79%
October 18 28.33333 -10.33333 10.33333 106.7778 57.41%
November 16 23.33333 -7.333333 7.333333 53.77778 45.83%
December 14 18.66667 -4.666667 4.666667 21.77778 33.33%
Total 4.333333 49 323.3333 254.68%
Average 0.481481 5.444444 35.92593 28.30%
35
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 6.796358 30
Next period 15.3333333
25

20

Value
15

10

0
1 2 3 4

Sh
 Forecasting
35

30

25

20
Value

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time

Shed Sales Forecast

Car Sales - Exponential Smoothing
Enter alpha (between 0 and 1), enter the past demands in the shaded column then enter a
starting forecast. If the starting forecast is not in the first period then delete the error analysis
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
for all rows above the starting forecast.

Alpha 0.2
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 153 142 11 11 121 0.07189542
Total 11 11 121 0.07189542
Average 11 11 121 0.07189542 Fore
Bias MAD MSE MAPE 154
SE Err:502
152
Next period 144.2 Not enough data to compute the standard error
150

148

146

Value
144

142

140

138

136

Deman
 Forecasting
154

152
mpute the standard error
150

148

146
Value

144

142

140

138

136
Time

Demand Forecast
Port of Baltimore MAD -Exponential Smoothing
Enter alpha (between 0 and 1), enter the past demands in the shaded column then enter a
starting forecast. If the starting forecast is not in the first period then delete the error analysis
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
for all rows above the starting forecast.

Alpha 0.1
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Tonnage Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 180 175 5 5 25 02.78%
Period 2 168 175.5 -7.5 7.5 56.25 04.46%
Period 3 159 174.75 -15.75 15.75 248.0625 09.91%
Period 4 175 173.175 1.825 1.825 3.330625 01.04%
Period 5 190 173.3575 16.6425 16.6425 276.9728 08.76%
Period 6 205 175.0218 29.97825 29.97825 898.6955 14.62%
Period 7 180 178.0196 1.980425 1.980425 3.922083 01.10%
Period 8 182 178.2176 3.782382 3.782382 14.30642 0.02078232
Total 35.95856 82.45856 1526.54 44.75%
Average 4.49482 10.30732 190.8175 05.59% Fore
Bias MAD MSE MAPE 250
SE 15.95065
Next period 178.595856
200

Errors as a function of alpha

Alpha Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err Standard150
Err
0 4.49482 10.30732 190.8175 05.59% 15.95065

Value
0.1 190.8175 0.05593975 15.95065
100
0.2 190.7919 0.05545828 15.94958
0.3 191.7435 0.05992131 15.98931
0.4 193.4373 0.06436648 16.0597750
0.5 195.2383 0.06756189 16.13437
0.6 196.5743 0.06946087 16.18948
0
0.7 197.2059 0.07010712 16.21546
1 2 3
0.8 197.2985 0.069616 16.21927
0.9 197.3594 0.06815245 16.22177
1 198.125 0.06865434 16.2532
Tonnag
 Forecasting
250

200

Standard150
Err
Value

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Time

Tonnage Forecast
Port of Baltimore MAD -Exponential Smoothing
Enter alpha (between 0 and 1), enter the past demands in the shaded column then enter a
starting forecast. If the starting forecast is not in the first period then delete the error analysis
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
for all rows above the starting forecast.

Alpha 0.1
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Tonnage Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 180 175 5 5 25 02.78%
Period 2 168 175.5 -7.5 7.5 56.25 04.46%
Period 3 159 174.75 -15.75 15.75 248.0625 09.91%
Period 4 175 173.175 1.825 1.825 3.330625 01.04%
Period 5 190 173.3575 16.6425 16.6425 276.9728 08.76%
Period 6 205 175.0218 29.97825 29.97825 898.6955 14.62%
Period 7 180 178.0196 1.980425 1.980425 3.922083 01.10%
Period 8 182 178.2176 3.782382 3.782382 14.30642 0.02078232
Total 35.95856 82.45856 1526.54 44.75%
Average 4.49482 10.30732 190.8175 05.59% Fore
Bias MAD MSE MAPE 250
SE 15.95065
Next period 178.595856
200

Errors as a function of alpha

Alpha Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err Standard150
Err
0 4.49482 10.30732 190.8175 05.59% 15.95065

Value
0.1 190.8175 0.05593975 15.95065
100
0.2 190.7919 0.05545828 15.94958
0.3 191.7435 0.05992131 15.98931
0.4 193.4373 0.06436648 16.0597750
0.5 195.2383 0.06756189 16.13437
0.6 196.5743 0.06946087 16.18948
0
0.7 197.2059 0.07010712 16.21546
1 2 3
0.8 197.2985 0.069616 16.21927
0.9 197.3594 0.06815245 16.22177
1 198.125 0.06865434 16.2532
Tonnag
 Forecasting
250

200

Standard150
Err
Value

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Time

Tonnage Forecast
Port of Baltimore MSE - Exponential Smoothing
Enter alpha (between 0 and 1), enter the past demands in the shaded column then enter a
starting forecast. If the starting forecast is not in the first period then delete the error analysis
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
for all rows above the starting forecast.

Alpha 0.1
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Tonnage Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Q1 180 175 5 5 25 02.78%
Q2 168 175.5 -7.5 7.5 56.25 04.46%
Q3 159 174.75 -15.75 15.75 248.0625 09.91%
Q4 175 173.175 1.825 1.825 3.330625 01.04%
Q5 190 173.3575 16.6425 16.6425 276.9728 08.76%
Q6 205 175.0218 29.97825 29.97825 898.6955 14.62%
Q7 180 178.0196 1.980425 1.980425 3.922083 01.10%
Q8 182 178.2176 3.782382 3.782382 14.30642 0.02078232
Total 35.95856 82.45856 1526.54 44.75%
Average 4.49482 10.30732 190.8175 05.59% Fore
Bias MAD MSE MAPE 250
SE 15.95065
Next period 178.595856
200

150

Value
100

50

0
1 2 3

Tonnag
 Forecasting
250

200

150
Value

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Time

Tonnage Forecast
Port of Baltimore MAPE - Exponential Smoothing
Enter alpha (between 0 and 1), enter the past demands in the shaded column then enter a
starting forecast. If the starting forecast is not in the first period then delete the error analysis
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
for all rows above the starting forecast.

Alpha 0.1
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Tonnage Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Q1 180 175 5 5 25 02.78%
Q2 168 175.5 -7.5 7.5 56.25 04.46%
Q3 159 174.75 -15.75 15.75 248.0625 09.91%
Q4 175 173.175 1.825 1.825 3.330625 01.04%
Q5 190 173.3575 16.6425 16.6425 276.9728 08.76%
Q6 205 175.0218 29.97825 29.97825 898.6955 14.62%
Q7 180 178.0196 1.980425 1.980425 3.922083 01.10%
Q8 182 178.2176 3.782382 3.782382 14.30642 0.02078232
Total 35.95856 82.45856 1526.54 44.75%
Average 4.49482 10.30732 190.8175 05.59% Fore
Bias MAD MSE MAPE 250
SE 15.95065
Next period 178.595856
200

150

Value
100

50

0
1 2 3

Tonnag
 Forecasting
250

200

150
Value

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Time

Tonnage Forecast
Portland Pollution C Trend Projection

Forecasting Trend adjusted exponential smoothing

Enter alpha and beta (between 0 and 1), enter the past demands in the shaded column then
enter a starting forecast. If the starting forecast is not in the first period then delete the error
analysis for all rows above the starting forecast.

Alpha 0.2
Beta 0.4
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast
Smoothed Including
Forecast, Smoothed Trend, Abs Pct
Period Demand Ft Trend, Tt FITt Error Absolute Squared Err
Past Period 1 12 11 2 13 -1 1 1 08.33%
Past Period 2 17 12.8 1.92 14.72 2.28 2.28 5.1984 13.41%
Past Period 3 20 15.176 2.1024 17.2784 2.7216 2.7216 7.407107 13.61%
Past Period 4 19 17.82272 2.320128 20.14285 -1.142848 1.142848 1.306102 06.01%
Past Period 5 24 19.91428 2.2287 22.14298 1.857021 1.8570214 3.448529 07.74%
Past Period 6 21 22.51438 2.377262 24.89164 -3.891645 3.8916447 15.1449 18.53%
Past Period 7 31 24.11332 2.06593 26.17925 4.820754 4.8207539 23.23967 15.55%
Past Period 8 28 27.1434 2.451591 29.59499 -1.594987 1.5949875 2.543985 05.70%
Past Period 9 36 29.27599 2.323992 31.59998 4.400018 4.4000184 19.36016 0.122223 For
Next period 32.47999 2.675993 35.15598 40
Total 8.449914 23.708874 78.64885 101.11%
35
Average 0.938879 2.6343193 8.738761 11.23%
Bias MAD 30
MSE MAPE
SE 3.351947 25
20
Value 15

10

0
1 2 3

Demand
Smooth
Forecast
 Forecasting
40

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Time

Demand
Smoothed Forecast, Ft
Forecast Including Trend, FITt
NY Edison - Least Squares

Forecasting Trend projection

If this is trend analysis then simply enter the past demands in the
demand column. If this is causal regression then enter the y,x pairs with
y first and enter a new value of x at the bottom in order to forecast y.

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Demand(y) Period(x) Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Year 1 74 1 67.25 6.75 6.75 45.5625 09.12%
Year 2 79 2 77.78571 1.214286 1.214286 1.47449 01.54%
Year 3 80 3 88.32143 -8.321429 8.321429 69.24617 10.40%
Year 4 90 4 98.85714 -8.857143 8.857143 78.44898 09.84%
Year 5 105 5 109.3929 -4.392857 4.392857 19.29719 04.18%
Year 6 142 6 119.9286 22.07143 22.07143 487.148 15.54%
Year 7 122 7 130.4643 -8.464286 8.464286 71.64413 06.94%
Total -4.26E-14 60.07143 772.8214 57.57%
Intercept 56.7142857 Average -6.09E-15 8.581633 110.4031 08.22%
Slope 10.5357143 Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 12.43239
Regression
Future perio 141 8
Correlatio 160
0.89491
140
Coefficient of determination 0.800863
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5

Column B Linear (Co

 Regression

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Column B Linear (Column B)

Des Moines Distributor - Seasonal In Simple Linear Regression

Forecasting Multiplicative seasonal model

Enter past demands in the data area. Do not change the
time period numbers!
12 seasons

Data
Demand(y)Time (x) Average Ratio
January 80 1 94 0.851064
February 70 2 94 0.744681
March 80 3 94 0.851064
April 90 4 94 0.957447
May 113 5 94 1.202128
June 110 6 94 1.170213
July 100 7 94 1.06383
August 88 8 94 0.93617
September 85 9 94 0.904255
October 77 10 94 0.819149
November 75 11 94 0.797872
December 82 12 94 0.87234
January 85 13 94 0.904255
February 85 14 94 0.904255
March 93 15 94 0.989362
April 95 16 94 1.010638
May 125 17 94 1.329787
June 115 18 94 1.223404
July 102 19 94 1.085106
August 102 20 94 1.085106
September 90 21 94 0.957447
October 78 22 94 0.829787
November 82 23 94 0.87234
December 78 24 94 0.829787
January 105 25 94 1.117021
February 85 26 94 0.904255
March 82 27 94 0.87234
April 115 28 94 1.223404
May 131 29 94 1.393617
June 120 30 94 1.276596
July 113 31 94 1.202128
August 110 32 94 1.170213
September 95 33 94 1.010638
October 85 34 94 0.904255
November 83 35 94 0.882979
December 80 36 94 0.851064
Ratios
Season 1 Season 2 Season 3 Season 4 Season 5 Season 6 Season 7
0.851064 0.744681 0.851064 0.957447 1.202128 1.170213 1.06383
0.904255 0.904255 0.989362 1.010638 1.329787 1.223404 1.085106
1.117021 0.904255 0.87234 1.223404 1.393617 1.276596 1.202128
Average 0.957447 0.851064 0.904255 1.06383 1.308511 1.223404 1.117021

Forecast for one complete cycle

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 Forecasting
140
 Forecasting
140

120
Season 8 Season 9 Season 10 Season 11 Season 12
100
0.93617 0.904255 0.819149 0.797872 0.87234
1.085106800.957447 0.829787 0.87234 0.829787
1.170213 1.010638 0.904255 0.882979 0.851064
Value

1.06383600.957447 0.851064 0.851064 0.851064

40
0 0 0 0 0
20

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34
Time

Demand(y) Column D
Nodel Construction Co - Linear Regression

Forecasting Simple linear regression

If this is trend analysis then simply enter the past demands in the
demand column. If this is causal regression then enter the y,x pairs with
y first and enter a new value of x at the bottom in order to forecast y.

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Sales Payroll Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Observation 2 1 2 0 0 0 00.00%
Observation 3 3 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.25 16.67%
Observation 2.5 4 2.75 -0.25 0.25 0.0625 10.00%
Observation 2 2 2.25 -0.25 0.25 0.0625 12.50%
Observation 2 1 2 0 0 0 00.00%
Observation 3.5 7 3.5 0 0 0 00.00%
Total 0 1 0.375 39.17%
Intercept 1.75 Average 0 0.166667 0.0625 06.53%
Slope 0.25 Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 0.306186
Forecast 3.25 6
Correlatio 0.901388
Coefficient of determination 0.8125

Regression
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0 1 2 3 4 5

Column B Linear (Co

 Regression

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Column B Linear (Column B)

Nodel Construction Multiple Regression

Forecasting Regression Projector

Enter the data in the shaded area.

Data
CoefficientForecast 1
Intercept 1.8 1
X1 0.3 6
X2 -5 0.12

Results
Forecast 3