COVID-19 - PANDEMIC IN

INDIA!

Prepared by
Shreya Chakraborty
MMSBF23051
COVID-19 - Pandemic in India!
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has spread across 190 countries infecting 4.2 lakh people and
killing 16,500. In India, as many as 562 COVID-19 cases have been reported so far. Of these, 37 have
recovered and 10 have died.
On March 24, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that the country would go under 21-day lockdown
to combat the spread of the virus. Infections are rapidly rising in Italy, France, Germany, Spain, United
Kingdom and the United States. It has has a massive impact on the global economy and stock markets
The Outputbreak of COVID-19 is developing into a major international crisis, and it's starting to influence
important aspects of daily life. For example in India:
 Travel: Complete lockdown no domestic or international flights are allowed in India for till next 21
days as decided by Ministry of Civil Aviation.
 Grocery stores: In highly affected areas, people are starting to stock up on essential goods leading to
shortage of essential stuff.
Problem Statement:
On 25th March Afternoon India has reported its 9th death with 562 total confirmed cases due to COVID-
19. Fresh cases from states like Manipur, Bihar, Gujrat, and Madhya Pradesh have been reported by the
Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare(MoHFW).
As the coronavirus Outputbreak continues to spread in the country, the question that we as Indians tried to
answer is :
"Will India be able to tackle this pandemic or are we going to witness another Italy/ S.Korea/ Wuhan?
or even worse."
Goal:
We need a strong model that predicts how the virus could spread across different countries and regions. The
goal of this task is to build a model that predicts the spread of the virus in the next 7 days.
Tasks to be performed:
 Analysing the present condition in India.
 Is this trend similar to Italy/S. Korea/ Wuhan.
 Exploring the world wide data.
 Forecasting the world wide COVID-19 cases using Prophet.
Importing the required libraries
Part 1: Analysing the present condition in India
The first COVID-19 case was reported on 30th January 2020 when a student arrived Kerala from Wuhan.
Just in next 2 days, Kerela reported 2 more cases. For almost a month, no new cases were reported in India,
however, on 2nd March 2020, five new cases of corona virus were reported in Kerala again and since then
the cases have been rising affecting 25 states, till now (Bihar and Manipur being the most recent). Below is
a brief timeline of the cases in India.
COVID-19 in India - Timeline

Recent COVID-19 cases in India: PM Modi Speech - 24th March

 PM Narendra Modi declared a three-week nationwide lockdown starting midnight Tuesday,
explaining that it was the only way of breaking the Covid-19 infection cycle.
 Modi told people to stay inside their homes for 21 days, warning that if they didn’t do so the country
would be set back 21 years and families would be destroyed.
 Modi later issued an appeal to the public to stop panic buying as people began crowding markets to
stock up before the midnight deadline.
 The government also issued a notification that said all essential services will remain open, as
before, and all essential commodities and medicines would be available. Banks, ATMs, petrol
pumps, hospitals and grocery shops will continue to function.
 All transport services — air, rail and roadways — will remain suspended until April 14.
1.1 Reading the Datasets

Output
 S. Name of State / Total Confirmed cases Total Confirmed cases (
Cured Death
No. UT (Indian National) Foreign National )

0 1 Andhra Pradesh 9 0 0 0

1 2 Bihar 3 0 0 1

2 3 Chhattisgarh 1 0 0 0

3 4 Delhi 30 1 6 1

4 5 Gujarat 32 1 0 1

5 6 Haryana 14 14 11 0

Himachal
6 7 3 0 0 1
Pradesh

7 8 Karnataka 41 0 3 1

8 9 Kerala 101 8 4 0

9 10 Madhya Pradesh 9 0 0 0

10 11 Maharashtra 98 3 0 2

11 12 Manipur 1 0 0 0

12 13 Mizoram 1 0 0 0

13 14 Odisha 2 0 0 0

14 15 Puducherry 1 0 0 0

15 16 Punjab 29 0 0 1

16 17 Rajasthan 30 2 3 0

17 18 Tamil Nadu 16 2 1 0

18 19 Telengana 25 10 1 0

19 20 Chandigarh 7 0 0 0

Jammu and
20 21 7 0 1 0
Kashmir

21 22 Ladakh 13 0 0 0

22 23 Uttar Pradesh 34 1 11 0
 S. Name of State / Total Confirmed cases Total Confirmed cases (
Cured Death
No. UT (Indian National) Foreign National )

23 24 Uttarakhand 3 1 0 0

24 25 West Bengal 9 0 0 1

CODE EXPLANATION
1. df = pd.read_excel('../input/covid-data/Covid cases in India.xlsx'): This line reads an Excel file
named "Covid cases in India.xlsx" located in the "../input/covid-data" directory and stores it in a
DataFrame object called df. The pd.read_excel() function is a pandas function that reads an Excel file
and returns a data frame.
2. df_india = df.copy(): This line creates a copy of the original DataFrame df and assigns it to a new
variable df_india. This is done to create a separate copy of the data, which can be useful for data
manipulation or analysis withOutput affecting the original data.
3. df: This line simply prints the contents of the original DataFrame df to the console.

Code Explanation
Import pandas: This line imports the pandas library, which is a powerful tool for data analysis and
manipulation in Python.
Load Coordinates Data:
 pd.read_excel('/content/Indian Coordinates.xlsx'): This line reads the Excel file containing the
coordinates of Indian states and union territories into a pandas DataFrame.
 Ensure that the file Indian Coordinates.xlsx is uploaded to your Google Collab notebook's
workspace.
Load Day-by-Day Data:
 Similar to the coordinates data, we use pd.read_excel() to load the day-by-day case data for India,
Italy, Korea, and Wuhan.
 The parse dates=True argument ensures that the date columns are parsed as datetime objects.
 The sheet name parameter specifies the sheet name within the Excel file to read.
1.2 Analysing COVID-19 Cases in India
In [4]:

Total
Number of confirmed COVID 2019 cases across India till date (22nd March, 2020): 562
In [5]:
#Highlighting dataframe

Output[5]:

Name of State / Total Confirmed cases Total Confirmed cases ( Total

Cured Death
UT (Indian National) Foreign National ) cases

0 Andhra Pradesh 9 0 0 0 9

1 Bihar 3 0 0 1 3

2 Chhattisgarh 1 0 0 0 1

3 Delhi 30 1 6 1 31

4 Gujarat 32 1 0 1 33

5 Haryana 14 14 11 0 28

Himachal
6 3 0 0 1 3
Pradesh

7 Karnataka 41 0 3 1 41

8 Kerala 101 8 4 0 109

Madhya
9 9 0 0 0 9
Pradesh

10 Maharashtra 98 3 0 2 101

11 Manipur 1 0 0 0 1
 Name of State / Total Confirmed cases Total Confirmed cases ( Total
Cured Death
UT (Indian National) Foreign National ) cases

12 Mizoram 1 0 0 0 1

13 Odisha 2 0 0 0 2

14 Puducherry 1 0 0 0 1

15 Punjab 29 0 0 1 29

16 Rajasthan 30 2 3 0 32

17 Tamil Nadu 16 2 1 0 18

18 Telengana 25 10 1 0 35

19 Chandigarh 7 0 0 0 7

Jammu and
20 7 0 1 0 7
Kashmir

21 Ladakh 13 0 0 0 13

22 Uttar Pradesh 34 1 11 0 35

23 Uttarakhand 3 1 0 0 4

24 West Bengal 9 0 0 1 9

Visualization Inference:
 Manipur and Mizoram reports thier first case.
 Kerela has crossed Maharashtra in terms of highest number of confirmed cases.
 Haryana and Telengana has the highest count of confirmed Foreign National count.
 Till 25th of March 9 people have died in India.
 Kerala, Maharashtra, and karnataka are currently Top 3 states with maximum number of confirmed
cases.
1.3 Number of Active COVID-19 cases in affected State/Union Territories
#Total Active is the Total cases - (Number of death + Cured)
Total number of active COVID 2019 cases across India: 512
Output

Total Active

Name of State / UT

Kerala 105

Maharashtra 99

Karnataka 37

Telengana 34

Gujarat 32

Rajasthan 29

Punjab 28

Uttar Pradesh 24

Delhi 24

Tamil Nadu 17

Haryana 17

Ladakh 13

Madhya Pradesh 9

Andhra Pradesh 9

West Bengal 8

Chandigarh 7

Jammu and Kashmir 6

Uttarakhand 4

Himachal Pradesh 2

Odisha 2

Bihar 2

Manipur 1

Mizoram 1
 Total Active

Name of State / UT

Puducherry 1

Chhattisgarh 1

1.5 Confirmed vs Recovered figures

1.6 How the Coronavirus cases are rising?

Trend of Coronavirus Cases in India (Cumulative cases)
Coronavirus Cases in India on daily basis Date New Cases

Is the trend similar to Italy/ S.Korea/ Wuhan?

India has already crossed 562 cases. It is very important to contain the situation in the coming 21 days.The
numbers of coronavirus patients starting doubling after these countries hit the 100 mark and almost starting
increasing exponentially.
2.1 Cumulative cases in India, Italy, S.Korea, and Wuhan
Confirmed cases in India

Confirmed cases in Italy

Confirmed cases in SOutputh Korea

Confirmed cases in Wuhan

Visualization Inference
 Confirmed cases in India is rising exponentially with no fixed pattern (Very less test in India)
 Confirmed cases in Italy is rising exponentially with certain fixed pattern
 Confirmed cases in S.Korea is rising gradually
 There has been only 3 confirmed cases in Wuhan since last week. They have almost controlled the
COVID-19
Updates from Wuhan
 China on 24th March, Tuesday decided to lift the three-month lockdown on more than 56 million
people in the central Hubei province.
 Bus services began in Wuhan for the first time since January 23 as a bus departed from its terminus
at Hankou railway station at 5:25 am on Wednesday
 The prolonged lockdown of Hubei's capital Wuhan will end on April 8, lifting the mass quarantine
over the city with a population of over 11 million.
2.2 Comparison between the rise of cases in Wuhan, S.Korea, Italy and India
2.3 Trend after crossing 100 cases
Visualization Inference:
 Above graph depicts the number of days after the COVID-19 cases crosses 100 vs total number of
cases in each country.
 Both Italy and S.Korea have crossed the mark of 5600 in the next 13 days.
 Number of cases detected(trend) in India is less as compared to Italy and S.Korea
2.4 Why is India testing so little?

The official assumption is the disease has still not spread in the community. As early "evidence" health
authorities say 826 samples collected from patients suffering from acute respiratory disease from 50
government hospitals across India between 1 and 15 March tested negative for coronavirus. Also, hospitals
have not yet reported a spike in admissions of respiratory distress cases.
"It is reassuring that at the moment there is no evidence of community Outputbreak," says Balram Bhargava,
director of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). He believes Mr Ghebreyesus's advice is
"premature" for India, and it would only "create more fear, more paranoia and more hype".
India has eight doctors per 10,000 people compared to 41 in Italy and 71 in Korea. It has one state-run
hospital for more than 55,000 people. (Private hospitals are Output of reach for most people). India has a
poor culture of testing, and most people with flu symptoms do not go to doctors and instead try home
remedies or go to pharmacies. There's a scarcity of isolation beds, trained nursing staff and medics, and
ventilators and intensive care beds.
3.1 Visualizing: Worldwide NCOVID-19 cases

In [20]:
Part 4: Forecasting Total Number of Cases Worldwide

The input to Prophet is always a dataframe with two columns: ds and y. The ds (datestamp) column should
be of a format expected by Pandas, ideally YYYY-MM-DD for a date or YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS for a
timestamp. The y column must be numeric, and represents the measurement we wish to forecast.

Output

ds y

57 2020-03-19 242708.0

58 2020-03-20 272166.0

59 2020-03-21 304524.0

60 2020-03-22 335955.0

61 2020-03-23 336004.0

 PM Modi announced Janta Curfew in India on 22nd March. From 24th March there is a complete
lockdown the entire country. Definately its for our own good.

 No scheduled international commercial flight's passenger shall be allowed to land in india from
March 22 for a week.
 From 24th midnight all the domestic and international flights have been called off.
Will Indian become the next Italy/ S.Korea/ Wuhan? or even worse.
Yes, if we look at the world's data and its forecast it is clear to say that India might face one of its worst days
if we are not taking strict measures against COVID-19.
 Indian government's decision confirms that the above prediction was definitely something we pay
attention to.
 Staying home/indoors for all 21 days definitely helped us tackle the situation. It won't stop the
pandemic, but it would definitely help in reducing the exponential rate at which it is increasing.
 Give a hand in fighting this pandemic atleast by quarantining ourselves by staying indoors and
protecting our family.
Indian streets!
  Nature is sending us a message with the coronavirus pandemic and the ongoing climate crisis,
according to the UN’s environment chief, Inger Andersen.
 Think on a positive side, lockdown helped the environment to heal better, reduce different kinds of
pollution, and improve air quality.
COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention - TAIPEI TECH WAY OF DOING IT