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Multiplication Theorem of Probability - 0

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173 views7 pages

Multiplication Theorem of Probability - 0

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suhaneeagarwal2680
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Probability

Multiplication Theorem

Dr. Zafar 1
Multiplication Theorem of Probability

▪ Multiplication Theorem: This theorem states that if two events A and B


are independent the probability that they both will occur is equal to
product of probability of their individual probabilities. Symbolically, if A
and B are independent, then
P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B).
The theorem can be extended to three or more independent events. Thus,
P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B) × P(B).

Dr. Zafar 2
Multiplication Theorem of Probability

▪ Proof of the Theorem:


▪ If an event A can happen in 𝑛1 of which 𝑎1 are successful ways and event
B can happen in 𝑛2 of which 𝑎2 are successful ways, we can combine
each successful event in the first with each successful event in the second
case. Thus the total number of successful events in the both the cases is
𝑎1 × 𝑎2 . Similarly total number of possible cases is 𝑛1 × 𝑛2 .
Dr. Zafar 3
Multiplication Theorem of Probability

▪ Then by definition, the probability of bot independent events happening is


𝑎1 × 𝑎2 𝑎 𝑎
= 1 × 2
𝑛1 × 𝑛2 𝑛1 𝑛2
𝑎1
But, = P(A), and
𝑛1
𝑎2
= P(B).
𝑛2
𝑎1 𝑎2
∴ 𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 × 𝑃 𝐵 = ×
𝑛1 𝑛2
In similar way, theorem can be extended to three or more events.
Dr. Zafar 4
Multiplication Theorem of Probability
▪ Example: A bag contains 5 white and 3 black balls. Two balls are drawn at
random one after another without replacement. Find the probability that
(i) both are black; (ii) one black and one white.
▪ Solution:
3 3
(i) Probability of drawing a black ball in the first attempt = =
3+5 8
2 2
Probability of drawing a black ball in the second attempt = =
2+5 7
Probability that both balls drawn are black
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 × 𝑃 𝐵
3 2 𝟑
= × = 𝑨𝒏𝒔
8 7 𝟐𝟖
Dr. Zafar 5
Multiplication Theorem of Probability

3 3
▪ Case I: Probability of drawing a black ball in the first attempt = 3+5 = 8
5 5
Probability of drawing a white ball in the second attempt = =
2+5 7
Probability that first ball is black and second is white
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 × 𝑃 𝐵
3 5 𝟏𝟓
= × = 𝑨𝒏𝒔
8 7 𝟓𝟔

Dr. Zafar 6
Multiplication Theorem of Probability

5 5
▪ Case II: Probability of drawing a white ball in the first attempt = 3+5
=
8
3 3
Probability of drawing a black ball in the second attempt = =
3+4 7
Probability that first ball drawn is white and second black
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 × 𝑃 𝐵
5 3 𝟏𝟓
= × =
8 7 𝟓𝟔
One ball is white and another black can happen in either way Case I or Case II.
15 15 30 𝟏𝟓
Hence, probability that one ball is white and one is black = + = = Ans
56 56 56 𝟐𝟖

Dr. Zafar 7

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