Masterclass Consumer
Masterclass Consumer
February 2024
Shift
Rising income from traditional to Digital adoption
modern retail
Branded jewelry FPT University’s Modern chain Modern chain TowerCos’ tower FPT’s fixed-broadband
penetration new enrollment penetration penetration ownership penetration
Source: NielsenIQ, Euromonitor, IQVIA, Gfk, Gartner, Vietcap estimates; 1Total number of students newly enrolled in private 2
universities; 2 Total addressable market; 3Data includes Laptop/PC/Tablet (USD1.3bn), consumer electronics (USD4.7bn), and
smartphones (USD4.7bn).
Vietnam’s long-term secular trends to fuel growth of companies
under our coverage (2)
Shift
Rising income from traditional to Digital adoption
modern retail
23-28F
Sales 15% 33% 15% 22% 30% 6%
CAGR 1
Source: 1 Vietcap’s combined sales forecasts of stocks under coverage for each sector; 2 the surge in sales was due to the (1) full- 3
year contribution of store expansion in 2022 for Long Chau and An Khang coupled with (2) Long Chau’s store expansion in
2023/24.
Structural trends to support recovery and long-term growth of
key sub-sectors in Vietnam’s consumer market
Extensive room for further modern grocery penetration 1 Ex- HCMC & Hanoi regions present huge growth opportunity 1
Annual grocery spending/capita (USD - LHS) No. of modern grocery stores
Modern grocery penetration % (RHS) Monthly income/capita in 2022 (VNDmn)
15 10.0
1,000 80%
15 Stores for every 100k people
9.0
8.0
800
60% 7.0
600
10 6 3.8x 6.0
Median penetration: 34% 40% 1.6x 5.0
400 4 4.0
5 3.0
20%
200
11% 4 2.0
Stores for every 100k
1.0
people
0 0% 0 0.0
China Indonesia Philippines Thailand Vietnam HCMC & Hanoi Rest of the country
Source: GSO, Euromonitor, World Bank, Company disclosure, Vietcap. 1 Data as of YE 2023; 2 Euromonitor estimate 5
Minimarts emerge as key growth driver
Minimarts’ share rose in rural areas and urban key cities 1 WCM & BHX dominate store count share in minimarts 2
30%
28%
25%
20%
15% 5% 50%
7%
99%
10%
72%
5%
2%
0% 34%
2018 2023 2018 2023
5.5
5.1
4.5
2.3% 1.6%
EBITDA margin EBITDA margin
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Euromonitor, Company disclosure, Vietcap. 1Value contribution to FMCG retail market by channel; 6
2Market share among leading modern minimart chains data as of Feb 2024; 3Data as of 2023; * Vietcap’s estimate from
Euromonitor ‘s data as of 2022.
Leading minimart players are getting nearer to bottom-line
profitability after a period of restructuring
40
20
0
2019 2021 2023 2024F 2026F 2028F 2019 2021 2023 2024F 2026F 2028F 2019 2023 2028F 2019 2023 2028F
We forecast WCM/BHX will contribute full-year operating profit to its parent from 2024F/25F, respectively
BHX WCM
4%
0%
-4%
-8%
-12%
-16%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
2 +11%
0
2020 2021 2022 TTM Q3 2023
Top four modern chains account for ~11% of total market Vietnamese’s market remains underpenetrated in comparison
with China
Other retail
stores
Top four
Vietnam one modern pharmacy serves ~33k people
modern
chains, 11% No. of people (thousands) served by 1 modern store in each Vietnam’s region
Hospital
drugstores
60
38
LC’s stores account for major share (*) in all Vietnam’s LC surpasses its competitors in both sales/store & profitability
region
Long Chau Pharmacity An Khang Trung Son Others 2023 monthly sales/store (USD thousand)
22% 43
21%
32%
0.8%
71% Net margin
61% 18 Negative Negative
Net margin
16 Net margin
38%
2019
2026F
2026F
2023
2023
2024F
2024F
2021
2021
2028F
2028F
0 0
2019 2021 2023 2024F 2026F 2028F
EBITDA margin Net margin
Source: Company disclosures, Vietcap. Note:(*) Store count market share among major modern pharmacy chains. 9
Structural trends to support recovery and long-term growth of
key sub-sectors in Vietnam’s consumer market
Growth in branded jewelry’s market share Modern jewelry store 1 presence by region
400 1
2019 21% 300 0.8
0.6
200
0.4
2017 18% 100 0.2
0 0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% North Central South
Phu Nhuan Jewelry (HOSE: PNJ)’s jewelry retail and wholesales revenue
VND tn
PNJ's retail & wholesales sales (LHS) YoY (RHS)
50 80%
30 40%
20 20%
10 0%
0 -20%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
Source: Euromonitor, GSO, Company disclosures, Vietcap (1Total store number of PNJ, DOJI, SJC and other modern players) 11
Robust educational spending fostered by rising income and
substantial demand for high-skilled labor force training
Vietnamese households’ expenditure on education has Key industries face labor shortages as number of
been increasing rapidly over the past five years trained workers in Vietnam remains low
2023 trained workers1 by education level, as % of total workers
7.1% 26.4%
* Annual tech labor shortfalls in Vietnam
CAGR (est. in 2023):
USD
’17-'22 ICT: 200,000
700
China 6% Semiconductor: 20,000 – 50,000
3.7%
600 4%
Philippines
3.7%
0%
500 Malaysia
11.9%
Vietnam 8%
400
4%
Indonesia
300
200 1%
Thailand
University and College Secondary Elementary Total
100
higher vocational vocational
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 education training training
Source: Euromonitor, Vietnam National Innovation Center (VNIC), GSO, FPT, Vietcap. 1 workers at 15 years old and above 12
FPT is Vietnam’s premier IT training hub
Extensive school networks and land banks across Vietnam Comprehensive value chain which targets middle-affluent
families and STEM1 training waves in Vietnam
University &
K-12 Vocational
College
Source: FPT, GSO, local media, Vietcap. 1Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics; 2Ministry of Education & Training. 13
Structural trends to support recovery and long-term growth of
key sub-sectors in Vietnam’s consumer market
Model
infrastructure Data Data to feed AI applications.
September
Mandatory 2G shutdown in Vietnam
2024*
Before
Tentative 3G shutdown in Vietnam
end-2026*
2G, 3G 4G, 5G
We expect a mass roll out of 5G in Vietnam in 2024
following the success of the 5G frequency band
auction
Number of
Auction date Status
spectrums
Source: Vietnam’s Ministry of Information and Communication (MIC), Vietcap. Note: (*) MIC’s plan. 17
CTR to capitalize on improving 4G coverage and potential
rollout of a 5G network in Vietnam
No. 1 Towerco in Vietnam leveraging on Viettel’s No 1. CTR is well-positioned to capture robust new tower demand
mobile telecom position (**)
100,000
155,000
CTR:
80,000 26%
CTR:
80% CAGR*
60,000
CAGR
50,665 40,000
0
CTR Asian peer CTR & Viettel Median of top 2020 2023 2028F
median 5 Asian
towercos Viettel's towers CTR's towers Potential 5G towers
Ample headroom for profitability increase on the Rising towerco EBITDA to drive CTR’s long-term earnings
current low tenancy rate
VND bn
2.5 2,500 60%
2.1
2,000
1.8
1.6 31% 40%
1.5 1,500 CAGR
1.2 1,000
1.03 88% 20%
500 CAGR
0 0%
2020 2023 2028F
CTR's towerco EBITDA - LHS
CTR Vietnam China Myanmar Indonesia India The U.S.
CTR's EBITDA (excluding towerco) - LHS
Towerco EBITDA as % of total EBITDA - RHS
Source: TowerXchange, CTR, Vietcap. Note: (*) Based on our forecast for CTR’s tower count without 5G towers; (**) Asian peers’ 18
data as of the end of 2022.
Consumption downturn bottoms out; early signals suggest
gradual recovery
Early signals emerge suggesting a gradual recovery for 2024 (1)
59 53 54 53 52 52 55
54
37
22 27 25 23 20 20 20
9 16
Q3 Q4 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 2021 2022 2023
2019 2021 2022 2023
YoY growth in Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing (PMI) in January
January shows strong momentum since August 2023 marked the first expansion in the past five months
30% 60
18.3%
55
20%
50.0
50
10%
45
0%
40
-10% 35
-20% 30
Source: GSO, Kantar Worldpanel Division, Consumer confidence survey in Vietnam four key cities. 1 Survey query: “The economic
situation will be better or the same as today in the next 12 months; 2 Survey query: “How do you evaluate the current financial 20
situation of your household?”
Early signals emerge suggesting a gradual recovery for 2024 (2)
Vietnam’s retail sales value and growth PNJ’ s monthly revenue of retail sales
Monthly retail sales of goods (LHS) YoY (RHS) % VND tn
VND tn
450 40 2.5 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
2.0
350
20
1.5
250 7.3
1.0
0
150
0.5
50 -20
0.0
Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Gfk, PNJ, Vietnam Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (VAMA) and Hyundai Thanh Cong, Vietcap 21
Government support measures lay foundation for recovery in
2024
2023 2024
Source: Vietcap, 1 Please refer to our Macro Flash Note "Salary reform to boost GDP growth" 22
Stronger 2024 economic backdrops stimulate the gradual
recovery of matured FMCG and ICT & CE retailing
FMCG sales under our coverage 1 to deliver a combined sales
CAGR of 6% in 2023-28F
Historical FMCG 2 & GDP trend are relatively aligned
40%
GDP growth FMCG value growth
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
100 5% 20%
17%
50 0%
15%
0 -5% 12%
Source: 2 Nielsen, Vietcap forecast,1 FMCG sales under our coverage include domestic sales of VNM, MCH, QNS’s soymilk and 24
SAB, * Blended EBIT/beer revenue.
ICT & CE retail sales under our coverage to deliver a combined
sales CAGR of 5% in 2023-28F, following a fall of 19% in 2023F
Combined ICT sales for retailers under our coverage 1
150 25%
15%
100
5%
-5%
50
-15%
0 -25%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
25% 12%
23% 10%
21% 8%
19% 6%
17% 4%
15% 2%
13% 0%
11% -2%
9% -4%
Source: Company disclosure, Vietcap forecast, 1 Combined ICT sales includes sales of TGDD & DMX (MWG) and FPT Shop (FRT). 25
Consumer Sector: Key data
Code Rating Market State Foreign Foreign ADTV Share Target Target price, Upside Div. 12M TSR
cap, O'ship limit avail, 30D, price, price, updated yield
USD mn USD mn USD mn VND ps VND ps
SAB BUY 2,996.1 36.0% 49.0% 1,158.3 2.5 57,000 73,000 22/02/2024 28.1% 5.8% 33.9%
VEA BUY 1,987.8 88.5% 49.0% 901.8 0.5 36,500 40,500 23/02/2024 11.0% 15.8% 26.8%
MWG BUY 2,637.1 0.0% 49.0% 110.5 16.2 44,000 54,800 23/02/2024 24.5% 0.0% 24.5%
FPT BUY 5,407.8 5.8% 100.0% 0 13.2 103,900 125,700 19/02/2024 21.0% 2.2% 23.2%
MSN BUY 3,911.4 0.0% 49.0% 831.2 7.6 66,700 80,400 22/11/2023 20.5% 0.0% 20.5%
VHC O-PF 594.2 0.0% 49.0% 403.1 1.7 64,600 72,400 06/02/2024 12.1% 3.1% 15.2%
VNM O-PF 6,081.4 36.0% 100.0% 2,863.7 10.4 71,000 76,100 24/11/2023 7.2% 4.8% 12.0%
QNS O-PF 702.2 0.0% 49.0% 234.0 1.6 48,000 51,500 29/12/2023 7.3% 4.2% 11.5%
PNJ BUY 1,203.9 0.0% 49.0% 0 6.4 87,800 92,200 02/11/2023 5.0% 2.3% 7.3%
CTR BUY 460 65.7% 100.0% 175.4 1.4 98,200 101,700 21/11/2023 3.6% 1.1% 4.7%
DGW M-PF 373 0.0% 49.0% 97.4 3.9 54,500 52,600 13/11/2023 -3.5% 0.0% -3.5%
FRT O-PF 731 0.0% 49.0% 98.5 3.4 130,900 112,700 09/11/2023 -13.9% 0.0% -13.9%
Code Share EPS g EPS g EPS g P/E P/E P/E P/E EV/EBITDA ROE P/B Net D/E
price, 2024F 2025F 2026F TTM 2024F 2025F 2026F 2024F 2024F LQ LQ
VND ps x x x x x x
SAB 73,000 7% 6% 6% 18.2 16.9 16.0 15.1 9.9 18% 3.0 -87%
VEA 40,500 8% 7% 8% 6.4 6.8 6.5 6.0 5.1 27% 1.9 -51%
MWG 54,800 1250% 72% 45% 386.0 28.4 16.6 11.4 12.0 9% 2.8 3%
FPT 125,700 23% 27% 25% 20.3 18.2 14.3 11.4 9.6 29% 5.3 -35%
MSN 80,400 164% 97% 59% 226.9 85.8 43.6 27.4 9.6 4% 3.6 138%
VHC 72,400 70% 33% 22% 15.9 9.1 6.8 5.6 6.6 18% 1.7 -1%
VNM 76,100 11% 5% 7% 18.7 16.9 16.0 15.0 9.6 32% 4.7 -42%
QNS 51,500 -15% -6% 7% 11.4 7.9 8.4 7.8 6.3 20% 1.9 -47%
PNJ 92,200 4% 15% 15% 15.6 15.6 13.5 11.8 11.4 20% 2.9 7%
CTR 101,700 17% 27% 24% 21.8 22.2 17.5 14.1 9.8 28% 5.6 -12%
DGW 52,600 24% 25% 19% 25.2 20.7 16.5 13.8 18.0 15% 3.5 33%
FRT 112,700 N.M. 262% 65% N.M. 129.0 35.6 21.5 33.0 8% 11.2 346%
Source: Vietcap (share price as of February 23, 2024); 1 EPS, P/E, ROE are based on core earnings that exclude one-off financial 27
income while EBITDA includes profits from Techcombank (TCB)
Appendix 1: Traditional vs modern groceries in Vietnam
WinCommerce
WinCommerce (WCM) Bach Hoa Xanh (BHX)
WinMart+ WinMart supermarket Winstore
` `
` `
520
484
467 471
280
257
242250
48 53
29 29 38 21 23 25
Source: Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d'Automobiles (OICA), ASEAN Stats, Vietcap’s compilation 31
Appendix 5: WinMart+ vs Bach Hoa Xanh
WinCommerce vs Bach Hoa Xanh’s total revenue WinMart+ (minimart) and Bach Hoa Xanh’s store count
WinCommerce*
WinMart+ Bach Hoa Xanh
USD mn Bach Hoa Xanh
Vietnam's modern grocery retailing 7,000
10,000 6,000
5,000
8,000
4,000
6,000 3,000
4,000 2,000
1,000
2,000
-
-
1.0%
0.0% 0.0%
-1.0%
-8.0% -8.5%
-13.5%
Vegetable Pork Chicken Egg Rice Cooking oil Fish sauce UHT Milk
Source: company disclosure, Vietcap forecasts and compilations; *WinMart+’s sales contributed 67-68% to 2021-2022 WCM’s 32
sales
Appendix 6: WinMart+ vs Bach Hoa Xanh – Store locations
FPT’s Global IT Service business is riding on Vietnam's significant labor cost advantages and the company's strengthening capabilities in carrying
out end-to-end projects (i.e., from consulting to implementation) and digital transformation services.
FPT Education is recording strong student enrollment growth on the back of its rising reputation and acceleration of campus expansion. In addition,
this business serves as an important source of labor for FPT’s Global IT Service business.
The Telecom Services business (e.g., fixed broadband and data center) is on track to deliver double-digit profit growth in the next few years
thanks to rising demand for cloud computing and data localization.
We forecast a 25% EPS CAGR for FPT in 2023-2026F vs 2024F/2025F P/E at our TP of 22x/17x.
FPT boasts a strong financial position with net cash/equity of 35% as of end-2023, and we project its FCF/EV yield will step up from 4.4% in 2023 to
7.6% in 2026F.
Key downside risks: Failure to realize synergies from recent acquisitions; slower-than-expected recovery in global IT spending; fierce competition in
telecom from both fixed and mobile broadband rivals.
36
MSN – Prime beneficiary of Vietnam’s consumption growth
We believe MSN is a proxy play on consumption growth in Vietnam driven by rising incomes, urbanization, and ongoing modernization. MSN owns
wide-ranging consumer businesses from food & beverage production to a nationwide retail network, each of which is fundamentally strong, but which
also share meaningful synergies.
MSN has sustained its leading market shares in some of the largest FMCG categories such as convenience foods, seasonings, and energy drinks
over the past five years. It is also the market leader in modern grocery retailing with the grocery chain WCM.
Over the past three years, management has positioned MSN more clearly as a consumer-led company, with increasing ownership and investments
in consumer-related businesses and divestment of the non-core feed business. The company is now targeting to reduce its ownership in another non-
core business, MHT, which we regard as a significant potential upside catalyst for MSN’s equity value.
We forecast EBIT CAGR of 23% In 2023-26F driven by (1) 17% EBIT CAGR in consumer-retail (i.e., combined EBIT of MCH, WCM, PL, and MML) and (2)
20% EBIT CAGR at MHT as the global economy recovers. We forecast MCH to deliver a 16% revenue CAGR and 15% NPAT-MI CAGR in 2023-26. In addition,
we expect grocery chain WCM to contribute VND150bn of operating profit to MSN in 2024F and 7-9% of MSN’s total operating profit in 2025-26.
Potential upside catalyst: strategic deals to increase liquidity; ownership reduction in MHT.
Key risks to our positive view: Weaker-than-expected Vietnamese consumption; profit volatility of MHT; weaker-than-expected operation progress at
WCM and PL.
37
MWG – Prominent modern retailer with nationwide coverage
We believe MWG’s dominant physical footprint has put it in a prime position to not only grow its existing businesses but also potentially enter new
retail verticals. Specifically, we believe MWG remains well-positioned to seize the growing demand for modern grocery retail from increasingly
discerning consumers.
We believe BHX now has one of the most extensive fresh food assortments among modern grocery retailers, which is a sustainable competitive
advantage to attract customers. We estimate that BHX's fresh food sales constitutes 38% of its total sales and surpasses most competitors in
Vietnam's modern grocery retail sector. BHX's protein offerings, including meat and seafood, dominate fresh food sales, with several new strategic
suppliers in 2023. The chain procures substantial volumes of fruit and vegetables from local agricultural partners, enabling frequent diversification of
fresh products. Moreover, BHX has managed to convert its footfall into FMCG sales. BHX’s operational efficiency also strongly improved as its SG&A/store
(exclusive of D&A) dropped 7.5 ppts YoY to 23.8% (per our estimate) in 2023. With considerable potential for expansion in southern Vietnam, where BHX is
now a top-of-mind brand in modern grocery, we anticipate BHX to reach approximately 3,500 stores over the next eight years.
We maintain our conservative projections for TGDD & DMX’s margins in 2024-28F. We expect MWG’s ICT sales to grow 1%/4%. We forecast the chains’
combined GPM/OPM to recover from 16.9%/2.3% in 2023 to 17.4%/3.8% in 2024F and 18.3%/5.9% in 2028F, respectively. However, our projection still
implies that ICT’s profitability will remain below pre-COVID levels (i.e., 2018-2019) in the next five years.
38
PNJ – Unquestioned leader in Vietnam’s fashion jewelry market
As Vietnam’s dominant fashion gold jewelry company, PNJ is benefiting from the rapid growth of discretionary spending in Vietnam. We believe
PNJ’s resilient middle-affluent customer base — coupled with its superior production and marketing capabilities as well as wide store network — should
enable the company to lead the growth of Vietnam’s fashion jewelry industry.
PNJ has outperformed its competitors in terms of store expansion and customer base growth despite retail headwinds. PNJ has managed to secure
48 new gold stores in 2023, outperforming its competitors DOJI and SJC, who each closed six stores in 2023, according to our research. Additionally, PNJ
has grown its cumulative customer base by approximately 40% as of end-2023. These developments should contribute significantly to PNJ's growth when
middle-affluent consumption recovers.
In the medium to long run, we anticipate that Vietnam’s growing middle-income class will increasingly favor buying jewelry from reputable brands as
opposed to purchasing it from unbranded mom-and-pop stores, who still accounted for 67% of Vietnam’s jewelry market in 2022 (vs 82% in 2017)
according to Euromonitor. As such, we forecast a retail revenue CAGR of 18% in 2023-26F, which corresponds to our 2023-26F EPS CAGR forecast of
13%.
Valuations: Our TP puts PNJ’s 2024F/25F P/E at 15x/13x, respectively, which are broadly in line with our average five-year peer median TTM PER of 16x.
Downside risk/upside potential: Weaker/stronger-than-expected jewelry demand and store expansion; weaker/stronger-than-expected improvement
in retail profitability.
39
CTR – Emerging towerco riding on Vietnam’s booming data
consumption
Rating* BUY 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
Share Price (Feb 23) VND98,200 Revenue (VND bn) 11,299 12,556 14,679 16,176 YTD CTR VNI
Target Price (TP)* VND101,700 % YoY 19.4% 11.1% 16.9% 10.2%
NPAT-MI (VND bn) 517 604 766 948 1Y
% YoY 13.5% 16.9% 26.8% 23.7%
Upside to TP +3.6% EPS % YoY 13.5% 16.9% 26.8% 23.7%
3Y ann.
Dividend Yield 1.1% GPM 7.8% 8.2% 8.7% 9.5%
TSR +4.7% OPM 5.6% 6.2% 6.7% 7.5%
EBITDA margin 7.9% 8.9% 9.6% 10.2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Industry Telecom infra. NPM 4.6% 4.8% 5.2% 5.9% Company Overview
Market Cap USD460mn EV/EBITDA 12.3x 9.8x 7.8x 6.6x Viettel Construction is a subsidiary of Viettel Group —
Foreign Room USD175mn P/E 21.8x 22.2x 17.5x 14.1x the No. 1 telco in Vietnam. CTR is the largest
ADTV30D USD1.4mn P/B 5.6x 4.8x 4.0x 3.3x independent telecom infrastructure leasing firm
State Ownership 65.7% ROE 28.5% 28.4% 29.9% 30.5% (towerco) in Vietnam.
Outstanding Shares 114.4 mn ROA 8.0% 7.7% 8.2% 8.7%
Fully Diluted Shares 114.4 mn * TP and rating last updated November 21, 2023
CTR is Vietnam’s No.1 towerco, top contractor and operator of telecom infrastructure, boasting cost competitiveness while
leveraging the business of its parent company Viettel — Vietnam’s no. 1 telco. We believe CTR will capitalize on Vietnam’s rising mobile
data consumption — especially via its fast-growing infrastructure leasing (towerco) business.
The towerco business — via which CTR builds telecom towers and leases them to mobile network operators (MNOs) — boasts high-margin
recurring revenue (est. EBITDA margin of 60%+) and rapid growth potential due to trends of infrastructure outsourcing and sharing among
MNOs.
We forecast a 19% EBITDA CAGR in 2023F-2028F — led by a 30% CAGR in towerco — as we project CTR will expand its own tower count
from a low base of 6,436 as of YE2023 to 20,786 by YE2028F.
Valuations: Our TP implies 2024-25F EV/EBITDA of 10.3x/8.2x, which we believe is justified due to CTR’s robust EBITDA growth outlook led
by towerco business.
Risks to our positive view: Slow mobile data consumption growth; Viettel prioritizing its ownership of towers instead of outsourcing to
CTR; unwillingness to share towers among telcos.
40
SAB – Leading beer company with gradual profitability
improvement
Rating* BUY 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
Share Price (Feb 23) VND57,000 Revenue (VND bn) 30,461 32,267 33,388 34,670 YTD SAB VNI
Target Price (TP)* VND73,000 %YoY -12.9% 5.9% 3.5% 3.8%
NPAT-MI (VND bn) 4,118 4,416 4,670 4,931 1Y
% YoY -21.2% 7.2% 5.8% 5.6%
Upside to TP +28.1% EPS % YoY -21.2% 7.2% 5.8% 5.6%
3Y ann.
Dividend Yield 5.8% GPM 29.8% 30.4% 31.0% 31.2%
TSR +33.9% OPM 12.5% 13.5% 13.9% 14.2%
EBITDA margin 15.9% 16.3% 16.6% 16.8% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20%
Industry Brewery NPM 13.5% 13.7% 14.0% 14.2% Company Overview
Market Cap USD3.0bn EV/EBITDA 10.8x 9.9x 9.4x 9.0x Sabeco is one of the largest brewers in Vietnam. It
Foreign Room USD1.2bn P/E 18.2x 16.9x 19.0x 15.1x currently has 26 breweries across Vietnam, boasting
ADTV30D USD2.5mn P/B 3.0x 3.1x 3.0x 3.0x a total capacity of more than two billion liters.
State Ownership 36.0% ROE 17.4% 18.2% 19.2% 20.1%
Outstanding Shares 1,282.6 mn ROA 12.4% 13.6% 14.2% 14.7%
Fully Diluted Shares 1,282.6 mn * TP and rating last updated February 22, 2024
SAB is a compelling defensive choice due to its solid financial position and cash flow.
SAB on the back of its household brand and extensive distribution is well-positioned to capture Vietnam’s rising beer consumption
due to (1) a gradual rebound in beer consumption and (2) long-term favorable demographics with a young population at the drinking age. In
terms of profitability, we expect that SAB still has headroom for margin expansion due to (1) operational and commercial optimization, (2)
decreased input costs due to high base in 2023, and (3) more efficient marketing strategies.
Going forward, we expect that SAB’s long-term earnings growth can be driven by the low base in the mass premium market on the
robust growth of the middle and affluent class in Vietnam. We currently forecast SAB’s EPS growth at 6% CAGR in 2023-28F.
Valuations: SAB is currently traded at a projected 2024F P/E of 17.2x vs its 10-year average of peer median P/E of 26.9x. Our TP puts SAB’s
2024F/25F P/E at 21.7x/20.5x.
SAB will maintain a cash dividend ratio of 30%-35% on par (VND3,300-3,500/share) in 2024-2026F implying a dividend yield of 5.8%-
6.1% at the current closing price.
Risks to our positive view: Weaker beer consumption; market share loss; higher advertising & promotional (A&P) spending due to stiff
competition; greater input cost volatility.
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VEA – Exposure to long-term growth of Vietnam’s auto and
motorbike markets
Rating* BUY 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
Share Price (Feb 23) VND36,500 Revenue (VND bn) 3,843 4,111 4,399 4,751 YTD
Target Price (TP)* VND40,500 %YoY -19.1% 7.0% 7.0% 8.0%
VEA VNI
Associate (VND bn) 5,639 6,349 6,933 7,555
1Y
% YoY -19.3% 12.6% 9.2% 9.0%
Upside to TP +11.0% EPS % YoY -18.2% 8.3% 7.2% 8.3%
GPM 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 3Y ann.
Dividend Yield 15.8%
TSR +26.8% OPM -6.1% -6.1% -6.1% -6.1%
PBT margin 170.2% 168.4% 168.0% 168.2% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Industry Automobiles NPM 162.2% 163.9% 164.3% 164.7% Company Overview
Market Cap USD2.0bn P/pre-fin. CF 7.1x 6.6x 6.5x 6.9x
VEAM Corp produces agricultural machinery.
Foreign Room USD901.8mn EV/EBITDA 5.4x 5.0x 4.7x 4.2x
However, most of its profits are derived from its
ADTV30D USD0.5mn P/E 7.8x 7.2x 6.8x 6.2x
associate stakes in leading motorbike and car
State Ownership 88.5% P/B 1.9x 1.9x 1.9x 1.8x
producers in Vietnam, including Honda Vietnam,
Outstanding Shares 1,329 mn ROE 24.7% 26.9% 28.7% 29.7%
Toyota Vietnam and Ford Vietnam.
Fully Diluted Shares 1,329 mn * TP and rating last updated February 23, 2024
VEA provides large exposure to Vietnam’s fast-growing automobile (4W) and extensive motorbike (2W) markets. VEA holds 20%-30%
stakes in Honda, Toyota, and Ford Vietnam, which together combined for a 40% market share in the passenger car (PC) market and 83% in the 2W
market in YE2023, per our estimate.
We expect both PC and 2W industry sales will experience bright long-term growth outlooks and achieve respective CAGRs of 17% and 6% in
2023-2028F as we believe in a recovery in consumer confidence and spending in 2024-2025 and a bullish long-term outlook for growth in
automobiles in Vietnam.
We note that in Q4 2023, VEA booked a provision of VND595bn for the non-performing loans to subsidiaries and an increased obsolete truck
inventories provision by VND128bn at the parent level, which were deemed qualified audit opinions previously. As a result, there remains one
qualified opinion (due to delayed revaluation of investments in non-performing subsidiaries) and three emphases of matters (delayed
equitization settlements payments, ongoing agriculture machinery capex, and unrecognized investments in associates).
Our TP puts VEA’s 2024F/2025F P/E at 8.0x/7.5x — lower than the five-year average peer TTM P/E of 8.6x. VEA’s FY2023 dividend yield (to be
paid in 2024) looks compelling at 16%.
Risks to our positive view: Intensifying competition in 4W market; weaker-than-expected consumer confidence.
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Disclaimer
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Contacts
Research
Nam Hoang, Associate Director Research team Alastair Macdonald, Head of Research
+84 28 3914 3588, ext 124 +84 28 3914 3588 +84 28 3914 3588, ext 105
nam.hoang@vietcap.com.vn research@vietcap.com.vn alastair.macdonald@vietcap.com.vn
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