ECONOMIC

ISSUES
TOPIC FOCUS
This topic focuses on the nature, causes and consequences of the economic issues and problems that
can confront contemporary economies as applied to the Australian economy. The issues examined
include economic growth; unemployment; inflation; external stability; the distribution of income and
wealth; and environmental sustainability. Students should learn to examine the following economic
3
issues and apply the following economic skills in Topic 3 of the HSC course:

ECONOMIC ISSUES
• Examine the arguments for and against increasing economic growth rates;

• Investigate the economic and social problems created by unemployment;

• Analyse the effects of inflation on an economy;

• Discuss the effect of a continued current account deficit on an economy;

• Investigate recent trends in the distribution of income in Australia and identify the impact of
specific economic policies on this distribution;
• Analyse the economic and social costs and benefits of inequality in the distribution of

TOPIC THREE
income; and
• Examine the economic issues associated with the goal of ecologically sustainable
development.

ECONOMIC SKILLS
• Identify and analyse problems facing contemporary and hypothetical economies;

• Calculate an equilibrium position for an economy using leakages and injections;

• Determine the impact of the (simple) multiplier effect on national income;

• Explain the implications of the multiplier for fluctuations in the level of economic activity
in an economy;

• Calculate the unemployment rate and the participation rate using labour force statistics;
• Interpret a Lorenz curve and a Gini co-efficient for the distribution of income in an economy;

• Use economic concepts to analyse a contemporary environmental issue; and

• Assess the key problems and issues facing the Australian economy.

The major economic issues in Australia involve Australia’s economic performance in terms of
outcomes for the rate of economic growth, the unemployment rate, the inflation rate, the balance
of payments and the exchange rate. Other important issues include trends in the distribution of
income and wealth in Australian society, and Australia’s approach to the management of the
environment and its commitment to a policy of ecologically sustainable development (ESD).

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170

Chapter 7: Economic Growth 171

• The Components of Aggregate Demand 172
• The Measurement of Economic Growth 177
• The Sources and Effects of Economic Growth 179
• Increases in Aggregate Supply and Economic Growth 181
• Trends in the Australian Business Cycle 183
• Policies to Promote Economic Growth 185

Chapter 8: Unemployment 191

• The Measurement of Unemployment 191
• Recent Trends in Unemployment 193
• The Types, Causes and Effects of Unemployment 197
• Policies to Reduce Unemployment 203

Chapter 9: Inflation 211

• The Measurement of Inflation 211
• Recent Trends in Inflation 212
• The Causes of Inflation: Demand and Cost Pressures 214
• The Negative and Positive Effects of Inflation 218
• Policies to Reduce Inflation 219

Chapter 10: External Stability 225

• The Measurement of the Current Account Deficit 225
• Trends in the Current Account Deficit, Net Foreign Debt and Liabilities 230
• The Causes and Effects of the Current Account Deficit and Net Foreign Debt 231
• Policies to Reduce the Current Account Deficit 236

Chapter 11: The Distribution of Income and Wealth 241

• The Measurement of the Distribution of Income 241
• The Sources of Income and Wealth 242
• Trends in the Distribution of Income and Wealth 245
• Dimensions in the Distribution of Income 248
• The Economic and Social Benefits and Costs of Inequality 249
• Policies to Reduce Income and Wealth Inequality 251

Chapter 12: Environmental Sustainability 257

• Ecologically Sustainable Development (ESD) 257
• Private and Social Costs and Benefits 259
• Environmental Issues 262
• Environmental Policies 266

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Chapter 7
Economic Growth
Economic growth refers to an increase in a country’s productive capacity as measured by changes in
its real GDP over time. Real GDP refers to the national output of goods and services adjusted for
changes in inflation over time. Increases in the rate of economic growth provide the means by which a
country can raise its level of income and standard of living. Macroeconomic theory involves the study
of aggregate economic behaviour (or economic activity in the economy as a whole), and is used to
analyse the main components of economic growth and GDP. Changes in the rate of economic growth
are measured by changes in real GDP, which can produce business or trade cycles in market economies.

The Equilibrium Level of National Income

The modern theory of macroeconomics was developed by John Maynard Keynes in The General Theory
of Employment, Interest and Money which was published in 1936. According to Keynes, the level of
economic activity or total output (O) is determined by the total expenditure (E) of consumers, firms,
the government and net exports. Keynes developed the concept of equilibrium income (Y) which is
the level of income in an economy from which there is no tendency for change. Using the circular flow
of income model, the three flows of Y, E, and O are separate ways of measuring the value of GDP, with
total expenditure (E) equalling the total value of output (O), which in turn equals the total value of
incomes (Y) received by the owners of productive resources in the economy who produce output. The
basic accounting identity for the equilibrium level of national income is where total income equals total
expenditure, which in turn equals the total value of output as shown in equation (1).
The equilibrium level of national income is where:
(1) Y = E = O
Income (Y) consists of consumption (C) plus saving (S) as shown in equation (2):
(2) Y = C + S
Expenditure (E) consists of consumption (C) by households, and investment (I) by firms as
shown in equation (3):
(3) E = C + I
Output (O) consists of consumer goods (C) and capital or investment goods (I) as shown in
equation (4):
(4) O = C + I
The equilibrium condition in an economy can be derived from where Y = O or Y = E i.e.
If Y = O = E, then C + S = C + I and therefore saving (S) equals investment (I)
The two equilibrium conditions for determining national income are shown in equations (5) and (6).
Either of these two approaches can be used to determine the equilibrium level of national income:
(5) S (Saving) = I (Investment) or (6) Aggregate Demand (C + I) = Aggregate Supply (C + S)
The first equilibrium condition is where saving (S) equals investment (I) and is known as the leakage/
injection or saving (S)/investment (I) approach to determining the equilibrium level of national income.
The second equilibrium condition is where aggregate demand (AD) equals aggregate supply (AS) and is
known as the aggregate demand/aggregate supply or AD/AS approach to determining the equilibrium
level of national income.

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THE COMPONENTS OF AGGREGATE DEMAND

The equilibrium condition in the five sector circular flow of income model of an economy is where the
total leakages of saving, taxation and imports (S + T + M) are equal to the total injections of investment,
government spending and exports (I + G + X) as shown in equation (7):
(7) S+T+M=I+G+X
If we substitute (Y - C) for S, and re-arrange equation (7) we get equation (8) for aggregate demand:
(Y - C) + T + M = I + G + X Therefore: (8) Y = C + I + (G - T) + (X - M)
Aggregate demand (AD) refers to the sum of expenditure on domestic output by households, firms,
the government and the foreign sector in an open economy. If we assume a five sector circular flow
of income model of the economy, aggregate demand represents the sum of aggregate consumption
spending by households (C), investment spending by firms (I), net government spending (G - T) and net
exports (X - M) as shown in equation (8). In equilibrium, a nation’s output, income and employment
are determined by the level of aggregate demand (AD) or expenditure as shown in equation (9):
(9) AD = C  +  I  +  G + (X - M)
where C = consumption expenditure by the household sector
I = investment expenditure by the firms sector
G = net government expenditure (government spending less taxation)
X = export expenditure by foreigners on domestic output
M = import expenditure by residents on foreign output
Let us now analyse each of the components of aggregate demand (i.e. C  +  I  +  G + X - M).

The Consumption Function

The consumption function was developed by J. M. Keynes in The General Theory and is shown in
equation (1) below. The consumption function has two components, one autonomous or independent
of changes in income (C0), and the other induced or dependent on changes in income (c).
(1) C = C0  +  cY
where Y = income
C = total consumption expenditure
C0 = autonomous consumption expenditure (consumption independent of income)
c = the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) = ∆C
(changes in consumption due to changes in income) ∆Y
NB: Since C + S = Y, saving (S) is equal to Y - C. Therefore the savings function is S = -C0 + sY
(where S = total saving; -C0 = dissaving; s = the marginal propensity to save (MPS); and
Y = income)

The Investment Function

Investment (as shown in equation 2) is spending by business firms on new capital goods used to increase
productive capacity. Investment spending is assumed to be autonomous, since factors other than income,
such as the cost of capital (the rate of interest), returns on capital, profits, business expectations, taxation
rates, government policies and changes in technology, will influence investment spending by firms.
(2) I = I0
where I = the total level of investment expenditure by firms
I0 = the level of autonomous investment expenditure by firms

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Government Expenditure
Government spending (as shown in equation 3) consists of total expenditure on current items by local,
state and federal governments, plus expenditure by government trading enterprises on capital items.
Government spending is assumed to be autonomous (or independent) of changes in national income.
(3) G = G0
where G = total government expenditure
G0 = autonomous government expenditure

Net Foreign Demand

Exports represent expenditure by foreigners on domestically produced goods and services and are
independent or autonomous of changes in domestic national income as shown in equation (4).
(4) X = X0
where X = total export expenditure
X0 = autonomous export expenditure
Imports are a leakage of funds from the circular flow of income, since they represent domestic demand
for foreign produced goods and services. Import expenditure consists of both autonomous and induced
components as shown in equation (5).
(5) M = M0  +  mY
where M = total import expenditure
M0 = autonomous import expenditure
m = the marginal propensity to import = ∆M
(changes in import spending due to changes in income) ∆Y

The Equilibrium Level of National Income in the Three Sector Model

In the three sector model of the circular flow of income, consisting of households, firms and the finance
sector, equilibrium is determined where savings equals investment (S = I) or aggregate demand (C
+ I) equals aggregate supply (C + S). Table 7.1 shows hypothetical values or schedules for income,
consumption, savings and investment, with autonomous components of spending for both C and I.
The consumption function is C = 50 + 0.5Y (autonomous C is 50 and the MPC is 0.5)
The savings function is S = -50 + 0.5Y (autonomous S is -50 and the MPS is 0.5)
The investment function is a constant I = 50 (all investment is autonomous of changes in income)

Table 7.1: The Consumption, Savings and Investment Schedules

Y C S I MPC MPS

0 50 -50 50 ---- ----

50 75 -25 50 0.5 0.5

100 100 0 50 0.5 0.5

150 125 25 50 0.5 0.5

200 150 50 50 0.5 0.5

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Figure 7.1: The Equilibrium Level of National Income in the Three Sector Model

Expenditure AS = Y = C + S
C + I = 100 + 0.5Y
Breakeven
C = 50 + 0.5Y
Panel A
10 0 Equilibrium

50
o
0 45 Y
100 200
S and 1
S = -50 + 0.5Y
Panel B

50 I = 50
0 100 200 Y
Ye Ye1
–50

The aggregate demand function (AD) in a three sector model is represented graphically in Figure 7.1
by adding the consumption (C) and investment (I) functions together. The aggregate supply function
(AS) is represented by the 45˚ line in Figure 7.1, which is a locus of points where Y = E = O. The
equilibrium level of income (Ye) using the AD/AS approach in Panel A is where:
AD = AS or C + I = Y i.e.
AD = C + I = 50 + 0.5Y + 50 = AS = Y
(AD) = 100 + 0.5Y = (AS) = Y (subtract 0.5Y from each side of the equation)
100 = 0.5Y (now multiply both sides of the equation by 2 to solve for Y):
Therefore the equilibrium level of income or Ye1 = 200
Alternatively, the equilibrium level of national income can also be determined by using the leakages and
injections approach in Panel B where savings (S) equals investment (I), which coincides with the point
where AD = AS in Figure 7.1:
(S) -50 + 0.5Y = (I) 50
(S) 0.5Y = (I) 100 (now multiply both sides of the equation by 2 to solve for Y)
Therefore the equilibrium level of income or Ye1 = 200
Without the addition of the finance sector (and the injection of investment to offset the leakage of
saving), equilibrium income in Figure 7.1 would be determined where C = Y = 100, or S = 0:
(C) 50 + 0.5Y = Y, with Ye = 100 or (S) -50 + 0.5Y = 0, with Ye = 100 (the breakeven point where C = Y)

The Simple Expenditure Multiplier

Changes in any or all of the autonomous (independent) components of aggregate demand or C +
I + G + (X - M) will cause a change in the equilibrium level of income through the effect of the
simple expenditure multiplier. The simple expenditure multiplier refers to the extent to which an initial
change in autonomous expenditure (such as autonomous consumption or investment expenditure) is
multiplied to give or result in a larger change in the equilibrium level of national income.

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In the three sector model of the circular flow of income, the multiplier can be derived by substituting
the consumption and investment equations into the national income identity as shown in equation (1).
(1) Y = C  +  I   (2) Y = 1 x C0 + 10
Y = C0  +  cY  +  I0 1 - c 1
Y - cY  = C0 + I0
Y (1 - c) = C0  +  I0
(divide by 1 - c to derive equation 2)
Equation (2) suggests that any change (∆) in autonomous consumption (∆C0) or autonomous
investment (∆I0) has a multiplied effect on the equilibrium level of national income and is equal to
the size of the multiplier (k), multiplied by the initial change in autonomous consumption (∆C) or
investment spending (∆I). The value of the simple expenditure multiplier (k) in equation (3) is equal to
one over one minus the MPC (c), or one over the MPS (s). The MPC plus the MPS always equals one.
(3) Multiplier (k) = 1   or 1 (NB: MPC + MPS = 1) ∆C + ∆S = ∆Y = 1
1 - c s ∆Y ∆Y ∆Y
In Figure 7.2 the initial equilibrium level of national income is 200, since this is the point where S (-50
+ 0.5Y) equals I (50), and aggregate demand (C + I = 100 + 0.5Y), is equal to aggregate supply (Y = C
+ S). If autonomous investment (I) increases by 25 from 50 to 75 (an upward shift in the investment
function from I to I1 in Panel B of Figure 7.2), the aggregate demand function increases from C + I
(100+ 0.5Y) to C + I1 (125 + 0.5Y) in Panel A. The new equilibrium level of national income is where:

C + I1 = 125 + 0.5Y = Y (subtract 0.5Y from both sides of the equation)

125 = 0.5Y (now multiply each side by 2 to solve for Y)
Therefore Ye1 = 250

Figure 7.2: The Multiplier Effect of a Change in Investment on National Income

Expenditure AS
C + I1 = 125 + 0.5Y I
C + I = 100 +- 0.5Y
Panel A
C + I 2 = 75 + 0.5Y - I
125
100
75
o
0 45
Y
150 200 250
S and I
S = –50 + 0.5Y
Panel B
75 I1 = 75
I = 50 I
50
25 I2 = 25 - I
0 Y
150 200 250
–50
Y Y

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176 Chapter 7: Economic Growth © Tim Riley Publications Pty Ltd

The value of the simple multiplier (k) is 2, with the increase in autonomous investment of 25 being
multiplied by 2 to give a larger change in income of 50 i.e.
k = ∆Y = 1 ∆Y = 1 x ∆ I1 = 1 x 25 = 2 x 25 = 50
∆I 1 - c 1-c 0.5
A fall in aggregate demand (from C + I to C + I2) in Panel A of Figure 7.2 caused by a decline in
autonomous investment from 50 to 25 (I to I2 in Panel B), leads to a greater than proportionate decline
in national income. With the simple multiplier being 2, a fall in autonomous investment of -25 is
multiplied by 2, to give a fall in income of -50. The new equilibrium level of national income is lower
at 150, determined where aggregate demand equals aggregate supply or savings equals investment i.e.
k = -∆Y = 1 ∆Y = 1 x -∆ I2 = 1 x - 25 = 2 x - 25 = -50
-∆I 1 - c 1-c 0.5
The size of the simple multiplier co-efficient is influenced by the relative sizes of the MPC and MPS.
The larger the MPC or the smaller the MPS, the larger the value of the multiplier. The smaller the
MPC or the larger the MPS, the smaller the value of the multiplier (see Table 7.2). This is because
consumption is an injection into the circular flow of income whereas saving is a leakage from income.

Table 7.2: The Relationship Between the MPC, MPS and the Multiplier

MPC larger smaller

MPS smaller larger

Value of the Multiplier larger smaller

REVIEW QUESTIONS
THE COMPONENTS OF AGGREGATE DEMAND

1. Explain how the value of GDP can be measured in terms of total output (O), total expenditure (E)
and total incomes received (Y) in the circular flow of income model.

2. What are the two equilibrium conditions for the determination of national income?

3. Distinguish between the autonomous and induced components of expenditure.

4. What is the equation for aggregate demand? How is it derived?

5. Explain the main components of aggregate demand: AD = C + I + G + (X - M)

6. Graph the consumption and savings functions C = 100 + 0.6Y and S = -100 + 0.4Y.

(i) What is the equilibrium level of national income?

(ii) If autonomous investment of 150 occurred, graph the new C + I function
of AD = 250 + 0.6Y.

(iii) What is the new equilibrium level of national income?

(iv) What is the value of the investment multiplier?

7. What determines the value of the simple expenditure multiplier (k)?

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THE MEASUREMENT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

Economic growth is usually measured in terms of changes in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This
is a calculation of the total value of all goods and services produced in Australia over a period of time,
adjusted for changes in the price level or inflation rate. GDP also measures the total incomes generated
by production taking place in Australia’s domestic territory. It is a gross measure since it does not make
an allowance for the depreciation of the existing capital stock. Annual changes in real GDP are referred
to as the rate of economic growth, and can be used for comparisons between time periods, and between
countries for similar time periods. Real GDP or GDP at constant prices is calculated as follows:
Nominal GDP 100 $1,200m 100
Real GDP = 1 x CPI e.g. 1 x 105 = $1,143m
In the example used above, nominal GDP or GDP at current prices is $1,200m. However the CPI has
increased by 5% from 100 to 105, so real GDP or GDP at constant prices is $1,142.8m.
Economic growth leads to increasing productive capacity and the production of more goods and services.
Rising levels of real output help to satisfy more needs and wants in society. In terms of the circular
flow of income model, GDP is a measure of total production or output (P or O), total expenditure
(E) and total incomes (Y or I) received, leading to the basic national income identity of Y = E = O in
equilibrium. Economic growth is measured by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in four ways,
at average 2016-17 prices (real GDP) and GDP statistics are released each quarter as well as annually:
1. GDP (P) is a production measure which calculates the value added by each stage of production in
the production of goods and services;
2. GDP (E) is an expenditure measure which calculates GDP according to the total expenditure by
consumers, businesses and governments on final output (i.e. sales receipts of final goods and services);
3. GDP (I) is the total value of incomes received by the owners of productive resources who contribute
resources to the production of those goods and services (i.e. wages, salaries, supplements and gross
operating surplus); and
4. GDP (A) is an average of the GDP (P), GDP (E) and GDP (I) measures of GDP, and is used to
achieve a standard average measure of the rate of economic growth in Australia.
Table 7.3 shows the value of Australian GDP and other aggregates using chain volume measures (with
2016-17 used as the reference year). Real GDP reached a value of $1,815,372m in 2017-18, an increase
of $50,860m or 2.9% from the 2016-17 figure of $1,764,512m. The rate of growth in real GDP of
2.9% for Australia in 2017-18 was below the historical average (3.25%) and can be calculated as follows:
Growth Rate Current GDP - Previous GDP 100 $1,815,372m - $1,764,512m 100
of Real GDP = Previous GDP x 1 = $1,764,512m x 1 = 2.9%

Table 7.3: Measures of GDP and other Selected Aggregates for Australia 2015-18 ($m)

Year
GDP Real Gross Domestic Final Gross Gross National
(P) Domestic Demand Non Farm Expenditure
Income (Y) Product (E)

2015-16 $1,724,123m $1,676,636m $1,713,982m $1,626,991m $1,715,164m

2016-17 $1,764,512m $1,764,512m $1,751,718m $1,774,577m $1,753,661m

2017-18 $1,815,372m $1,822,461m $1,811,049m $1,811,506m $1,813,219m

Source: ABS (2018-19), Australian National Accounts, Catalogue 5206.0, March. Tables 3, 40 and 42

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Figure 7.3: Real GDP Growth in Australia 1992-93 to 2022-23 (f)

Sources: Budget Strategy and Outlook 2019-20, Budget Paper No. 1, page 2-9.

Recent Trends in Australian Economic Growth

Rates of real GDP growth in Australia between 1992-93 and 2017-18 (with forward estimates between
2018-19 and 2022-23) are shown in Figure 7.3. In 2019 the Australian economy recorded its 28th
consecutive year of positive economic growth. The 20 year average for Australia’s real GDP growth was
about 3.25% between 1994 and 2015, helped by the external stimulus of the global resources boom and
the rising terms of trade between 2003 and 2007 and the mining investment boom over 2010-2012:
• In 2003-04 economic growth was strong at 4.1% due to a housing boom, global economic recovery
and the start of the mining resources boom. Higher interest rates in 2003 led to lower spending and
the end of the housing boom, with real GDP growth slowing to 2.8% in 2004-05 before recovering
to 3% in 2005-06 despite higher interest rates due to a rise in inflation.
• The strength of the terms of trade (through rising export prices) and domestic demand underpinned
real GDP growth of 3.3% in 2006-07. Real GDP growth remained firm at 3.7% in 2007-08.
• Higher domestic interest rates, the global credit crisis and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and
recession in late 2008 caused the economy to slow dramatically. Real GDP grew by just 1.4% in
2008-09 largely due to the impact of the government’s use of fiscal and monetary stimulus.
• A global recovery after the GFC led to 2.3% growth in Australian real GDP in 2009-10. However
the European Sovereign Debt Crisis in 2010-11 led to slower world growth, including slower
growth in China, which impacted on Australia’s exports and restricted growth to 1.9% in 2010-11.
In 2011-12, the appreciating Australian dollar reduced competitiveness, and with slower growth in
household spending, led to an uneven pattern of growth in the Australian economy. There was an
increase in mining investment and commodity exports to China and Asia, but manufacturing, education
and tourism recorded below average growth. Overall trend growth in real GDP in 2011-12 was 3.4%.
In 2012-13 growth slowed to 3% with weaker global growth, falling commodity prices and the terms of
trade. The Reserve Bank cuts interest rates between 2011 and 2013 to support growth as the economy
began transitioning from growth led by mining investment to non mining sources of growth. The
economy grew by 2.6% in 2013-14 and 2.4% in 2014-15. Lower commodity prices and a lower terms
of trade in 2015-16 restricted growth to 2.7%. The Reserve Bank cut interest rates between 2014 and
2016 to support growth as deflationary pressures began to emerge in the economy. Economic growth
fell to 2.1% in 2016-17 but strengthened to 2.9% in 2017-18. In the year to December 2018 economic
growth fell to 1.8% in Australia with low wages growth, falling house prices, high household debt and
weak consumption spending. This led to the Reserve Bank cutting interest rates in June and July 2019.

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THE SOURCES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

The main sources of economic growth in Australia include positive growth in the major individual
components of aggregate demand or spending in the economy (C + I + G + X - M) such as the following:
• Consumption spending by households (C): Consumption spending by households is mainly
influenced by the level of household disposable income and consumer confidence. These factors
are influenced by the general state of the economy, the level of taxation, wages and interest rates.
• Investment spending by firms (I): Private business investment is influenced by the level of business
profits, interest rates, taxation and business expectations about the state of the economy.
• Government spending (G): The level of government spending is largely influenced by the amount
of taxation revenue collected, the government’s budget priorities and the state of the economy.
• Net exports (X-M): This refers to the income from exports of goods and services (X) minus the
expenditure on imports of goods and services (M). If net exports are negative they will detract from
economic growth, but if net exports are positive they will add to economic growth.
The rate of technological change is also an important driver of economic growth as it can lead to
improvements in labour and capital productivity (i.e. the rate of increase in output per unit of inputs
used in production). Higher productivity was one of the main reasons for Australia sustaining higher
rates of economic growth in the 1990s and early to mid 2000s compared to the 1980s. Other drivers of
economic growth include population growth and increased labour force participation rates. According
to Treasury the three ‘Ps’ of productivity, population growth and participation ‘drive growth’.
Australia is a major importer of information and communications technology (ICT) and other types
of specialised capital equipment used in the mining, agriculture, manufacturing and service industries.
This capital has helped to raise both single factor (e.g. labour and capital productivity) and multifactor
productivity, which in turn increases the rate of sustainable economic growth. The major contributions
to Australian economic growth or GDP between 2015-16 and 2017-18 are listed in Table 7.4:
• Household consumption spending (C) represented 56.7% of expenditure on GDP in 2017-18.
Household consumption grew by 2.6% in 2016-17 and 2.8% in 2017-18, assisted by lower interest
rates, but was constrained by low wages growth of 2.4% and high levels of household debt.
• Private investment (I) by firms accounted for 19.5% of GDP in 2017-18, rising by 5.4% between
2016-17 and 2017-18 mainly due to an increase in non mining investment including construction.
• Government spending (G) was 23.6% of GDP in 2017-18, expanding by 3.2% between 2016-17
and 2017-18 as the government increased expenditure on consumption and infrastructure projects.
• Net exports of goods and services (X - M) was a surplus of $188m in 2017-18, smaller than the
surpluses in 2015-16 and 2016-17 which added to GDP growth. These surpluses resulted from
strong demand for resource exports and a recovery in commodity prices especially iron ore.

Table 7.4: Expenditure on Australian Gross Domestic Product 2015-2018 ($m)

Household Private Government Change in Net Exports Statistical GDP

Consumption (C) Investment (I) Spending (G) Inventories (X-M) Discrepancy

2015-16 978,114 346,543 389,372 1,225 7,654 1,215 1,724,123

2016-17 1,001,197 335,767 414,754 1,943 10,851 -------- 1,764,512

2017-18 1,028,988 354,094 427,966 2,171 188 1,965 1,815,372

Source: ABS (2019), Australian National Accounts, Catalogue 5206.0, March. Table 42
The reference year is 2016-17. Note: Figures are rounded and may not total. Total GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)

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180 Chapter 7: Economic Growth © Tim Riley Publications Pty Ltd

THE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

Economic growth can lead to a number of important benefits for the Australian economy, including:
• Higher real per capita incomes and living standards can be achieved from increases in productivity
and resource use. Higher real incomes allow individuals to have greater purchasing power in
raising their material standard of living by consuming more goods and services to improve their
material wellbeing. This may include better standards of nutrition, housing, clothing, education,
healthcare, transport and recreation. Australia had a high per capita gross national income (GNI)
of US$43,500 in PPP terms in 2017 according to the World Bank’s Human Development Report.
• Higher levels of economic growth in Australia can also encourage higher levels of saving from
increases in income in both the private and public sectors. In the private sector, increases in real
income can lead to a rise in the household saving ratio (which rose to over 10% in 2014), with
households able to reduce their levels of debt and save for retirement. However the household saving
ratio fell in 2018-19 due to low wages growth and high levels of household debt. The introduction
of compulsory superannuation in 1991 has led to households accumulating more retirement
savings with rising real incomes and positive returns on superannuation balances. Businesses can
also increase their saving rates with the retention of business profits for future investment.
• Higher levels of economic growth tend to lead to higher rates of productivity growth and
technological progress. This arises from more efficient resource use, as producers are able to use
cost reducing technology and innovations in keeping pace with the rising demand for goods and
services. Higher productivity, especially labour productivity, can lead to increased demand for
labour by employers, helping to reduce the level and rate of unemployment in the labour market.
• Higher rates of economic growth which result in employment creation, can lead to new entrants
to the workforce (through a higher participation rate) and higher levels of employment. Economic
growth may also create jobs for previously unemployed workers, and underemployed workers, who
may switch from part time or casual jobs to full time jobs to raise their real incomes, whilst those
in full time employment may work overtime or second jobs to increase their real incomes.
• Economic growth which leads to higher real GDP, can increase taxation revenue for the government
(known as the ‘growth dividend’). The Australian government can use this additional taxation
revenue to provide social and economic infrastructure, and to fund the social security and welfare
system to provide income support for the aged, sick, low income families and the unemployed.
• Higher levels of economic growth can also contribute to new business investment as higher
consumption spending can have an ‘acceleration effect’ on net investment (i.e. new investment
in addition to the replacement of depreciated capital). Investment opportunities in new resource
projects and in new plant and equipment may result from higher sustained economic growth.
• Economic growth necessarily involves increases in real output, some of which may be exported
to other countries. Export income can then be used to finance imports of consumer, capital and
intermediate goods produced more cheaply overseas. The gains from international trade include
lower prices, more consumer choice, higher output, employment and living standards.
• Economic growth may allow some resources to be released from current production for the
protection of the environment. Increased leisure time and higher incomes may lead to more
concern for the environmental protection of natural resources, including endangered species and
rainforests, and the minimisation of pollution and the rate of climate change through the use of
pollution abatement schemes (e.g. cleaner technologies and a system of tradeable emission permits),
and government legislation to limit negative externalities caused by private production activities.
• Another benefit of economic growth is the additional leisure time that workers may ‘trade off’ for
extra work as real incomes rise. This enables Australians to use leisure time to travel, play sport, or
enjoy entertainment, literature, the arts, music, hobbies and to participate in voluntary community
organisations. These interests have developed into growing service industries which offer new
employment opportunities in areas such as sport, recreation, travel, tourism and entertainment.

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The benefits of economic growth for Australia must be balanced against the costs of structural change
which occur in the economy as it grows in real terms over time. Economic growth should not be
pursued as an end in itself but as a process of assisting the Australian economy to achieve higher living
standards and improvements in the physical and human quality of life and level of human development.
A number of problems can result from the pursuit of economic growth as an end or goal in itself:
• A problem experienced by both advanced and developing economies in pursuing high rates of
economic growth is the damage caused to the natural environment through pollution, deforestation
and land degradation. More natural resources are needed to sustain higher rates of economic growth
and this may lead to the depletion of both non renewable and renewable resources, pollution of the
environment, land degradation, and a consequent decline in environmental quality.
• Economic growth is a vehicle for great technological and structural changes in production, which
can lead to some structural unemployment of labour. Governments need to fund retraining
schemes to re-skill the structurally unemployed for future employment in other industries.
• Economic growth can often lead to an overemphasis on materialism and consumerism in society.
Some loss of traditional cultural and family values is an inevitable outcome, but economic growth
should not be pursued at the expense of a decline in traditional cultural or family values.
• Economic growth may lead to a widening in inequality of the distribution of income and wealth in
a society, if the benefits of growth do not ‘trickle down’ to low and middle income groups, but are
concentrated in high income groups. Progressive taxation can be used by governments to reduce
income inequality by financing social security and welfare payments to lower income earners.
• Excessive rates of economic growth can lead to demand pull and cost push inflation as resources
become scarce in relation to the increased demand for goods and services. Economic growth might
therefore conflict with the objective of price stability. It can also conflict with full employment as
technical progress may lead to structural unemployment. The other conflict that can arise is with
the goal of external balance. As the economy increases its demand for imported goods, this can lead
to an increase in the current account deficit and the level of net foreign debt to finance the deficit.

INCREASES IN AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

In the long run, the rate of economic growth is heavily influenced by the Australian economy’s productive
capacity. The economy’s productive capacity refers to the quantity and quality of resources needed to
sustain the rate of increase in real output or economic growth in the future. The main resources used
to sustain economic growth are land, labour, capital and enterprise. Improvements in the quantity and
quality of these resources can help to raise the production of goods and services and living standards.
Aggregate supply represents the total volume of the economy’s output. The aggregate supply curve (AS)
is shown in Figure 7.4 and represents the total volume of the economy’s output at various price levels.
It slopes upwards to the right as producers will have an incentive to increase output at higher prices in
order to maximise profits. A shift to the right (AS to AS1) or increase in the long run aggregate supply
curve (AS) or productive capacity is shown in Figure 7.4. This results in a higher rate of economic
growth. In this model used by supply side economists, the price level is flexible unlike the Keynesian
model which assumes a fixed price level. The aggregate demand curve is downward sloping from left
to right as consumers may be willing to buy more output but only at lower prices or a lower price level.
The intersection of the aggregate demand (AD) and aggregate supply (AS) curves represents the
economy’s equilibrium level of income and output at Ye and at price level P. Any increase in aggregate
demand without a corresponding increase in aggregate supply will lead to a higher price level and
inflation. This represents a constraint on the economy’s future growth. More resources or an increase in
the productivity of existing resource use is needed to increase economic growth by increasing aggregate
supply. This capacity constraint occurred in the Australian economy between 2005 and 2008 as full
employment was reached in the labour market, and economic and social infrastructure was fully utilised.

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Figure 7.4: The Effect of an Increase in Aggregate Supply on Economic Growth

Price Level
AD AS AS 1

P
P1

AD
AS AS1
0 Real GDP or
Ye Ye1 national income

In Figure 7.4 the shift in the economy’s aggregate supply curve to the right from AS to AS1 leads to
more economic growth (Ye to Ye1) and a lower price level (P to P1), since more output is available at a
lower price level. An increase in aggregate supply could be sourced from higher productivity (i.e. more
output being produced from a given level of inputs) or from more resources being used to increase
output. This could come about from business firms using more efficient work practices and the latest
technology to raise labour and capital productivity. Education and training of labour could also increase
skills and raise labour productivity. It could also come about from the use of more resources such as
higher rates of immigration of skilled labour to increase the size of the workforce and more investment
in resource projects (such as oil, gas, coal and iron ore) to increase the resources available for export.
Government policies called microeconomic reforms are an important means for improving the efficiency
of resource allocation in the economy in the long term. These policies include the reduction in tariffs
and other barriers to international trade; the relaxation of barriers to international investment; changes
to the structure and rates of taxation; domestic competition policy reforms; and reforms in financial,
labour and product markets. These reforms along with changes in technology and markets, have led to
changes in the structure of the economy (i.e. structural change) to make it more productive, efficient
and competitive. The three types of potential efficiency gains from microeconomic reform policies and
market induced structural change are the following:
• Technical or productive efficiency refers to firms producing output using the least cost combination
of resources. This means producing the maximum output at the minimum average cost. In
microeconomic theory this is known as achieving technical optimum in production.
• Allocative efficiency involves firms charging prices which reflect the marginal cost of production so
that resources are allocated in such a way as to reflect consumer preferences for goods and services.
• Dynamic efficiency refers to firms adapting to changing economic circumstances (such as changes
in demand and technology) by using the latest cost reducing technology to meet changing consumer
preferences. This is also known as inter-temporal efficiency as firms respond to changes in domestic
and global markets and technology over time by producing output at the minimum cost.
One of the main sources of the growth in GDP per capita in Australia between 1990 and 2001 was the
improvement in labour productivity. Australia’s annual labour productivity growth was 2.2% between
1990 and 2001, which was higher than in most other OECD countries. However annual productivity
growth fell to 0.5%-1% between 2001 and 2016 as capacity constraints emerged. These included a
shortage of some forms of skilled labour (such as professionals and tradespersons) and the need for
increased investment in infrastructure such as transport, health, communications and education.

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Figure 7.5: Australian Labour Productivity Growth 1982-2017 (Yearly % change)

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia (2018), Statement on Monetary Policy, May.

Figure 7.5 shows the trend in Australian labour productivity (as measured by GDP per hour worked)
between 1982 and 2017. Key influences on labour productivity include technological advances,
improvements in labour skills, and the quality of management practices and work arrangements:
• Knowledge and innovation are closely linked to the adoption of new technologies and their
application in industry. Australian businesses have a high ‘take up’ rate of new technologies.
• Expenditure on research and development (R & D) in Australia is important for encouraging
innovation in industry. However Australia only spends 1.6% of its GDP on R & D compared to
an average 3% of GDP in other OECD countries.
• Business use of the Internet (through the expansion of broadband services and new computer
software) in Australia is a major means of innovation and the conduct of modern business, including
electronic commerce, the use of social media for advertising and accessing global markets.
• Labour quality is strongly linked to the levels of education and training at school, as well as
vocational and tertiary levels of education. Improvements in education and training have become
a major focus of government policy as a means of raising the quality of the Australian labourforce.

TRENDS IN THE AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS CYCLE

The business cycle refers to fluctuations in the level of real GDP over time in market economies like
Australia. Figure 7.6 shows the main phases of the business cycle as economic activity can deviate from
the general long term upward trend in the rate of economic growth over time. One complete business
cycle is measured from trough to trough, or peak to peak. In Australia one cycle is estimated to average
about seven years. The four phases of the business cycle in Figure 7.6 are the following:
• The trough of the cycle is where output and employment ‘bottom out’ to their lowest levels. It is
the lower turning point of the business cycle. Income is at its lowest level, whereas unemployment
is at its highest e.g. the 1990-91 recession in Australia was characterised by negative economic
growth of -0.2% in real GDP and the unemployment rate rose to 11% of the workforce. The
1990-91 recession was caused by excessive monetary tightening which reduced growth and raised
the unemployment rate. A recession in economic activity is defined as two consecutive quarters
of negative economic growth. The Australian economy recorded below average growth of 1.3% in
2008-09 due to the Global Financial Crisis but did not experience a ‘technical’ recession.
• The recovery or upswing of the business cycle is a phase between the trough and peak, characterised
by an expansion of the economy’s level of output and employment towards full employment.

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Figure 7.6: The Phases of the Business Cycle

Unemployment falls because higher spending creates new job opportunities e.g. an economic
upswing occurred in 2009-10, with real GDP rising by 2.3% and the unemployment rate falling
from 5.8% to 5.1%, due to a recovery in domestic and global economic activity after the Global
Financial Crisis. A slow recovery also occurred in 2017-19 after the end of the mining investment
boom with economic growth of 2.75% and the unemployment rate falling to 5.2% by 2019.
• The peak or boom of the business cycle is the upper turning point, where the economy has grown
to its capacity and income, employment and output are at a maximum. Aggregate demand exceeds
aggregate supply causing over full employment of resources. Inflation may arise because resources
are scarce and their prices are bid up by competing users. Between 2003 and 2004, the Australian
economy boomed with real GDP growth averaging over 4%, and the unemployment rate fell to
below 5%, but inflation increased, with the CPI rising to 3.2% in 2005. These boom conditions
continued between 2006 and 2008 as Australian growth was supported by the expansionary effect
of a rising terms of trade and strong growth in domestic demand. Another boom occurred between
2010 and 2012 with a large increase in mining investment and increased resource exports.
• The downswing of the business cycle is characterised by falling output and employment and the
emergence of excess capacity. Spending falls in a downswing and unemployment of labour rises, as
aggregate demand is insufficient to generate full employment. A downswing occurred in Australia
between 2013-14 and 2015-16, as growth slowed to 2.5%, largely because of lower commodity
prices, a lower terms of trade and the decline in mining investment. Spare capacity emerged in the
labour market with the unemployment rate rising to 6.2% in 2015 before falling to 5.2% in 2019.
The downswing in economic growth that occurred after the peak was reached in mining investment
in 2012 was a direct result of the subsequently large fall in mining investment and the beginning
of slower global growth including lower growth in China, Australia’s major trading partner.
In Figure 7.6 government intervention in the business cycle is shown by the dotted line. This represents
the government’s use of counter cyclical or stabilisation policies to ‘smooth out’ fluctuations in the
business cycle, and is known as ‘lopping the peaks and filling the troughs’. In a trough or recession
the government could use expansionary monetary and/or fiscal policies to support growth in aggregate
demand and reduce unemployment. In a peak or boom the government could use contractionary
monetary and/or fiscal policies to reduce the growth of aggregate demand and inflation pressures.

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POLICIES TO PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH

The Australian economy has performed remarkably well since the 1991 recession, recording twenty
eight years of consecutive economic growth from 1991 to 2019. The rate of economic growth averaged
between 3% and 4% in real terms in this period due to a combination of positive world economic
growth (including the resources booms between 2003 and 2008; and 2010 and 2012); and the benefits
of major macroeconomic and microeconomic reforms in Australia. These reforms included the more
effective conduct of macroeconomic policy in keeping inflation and interest rates low, which has led
to greater certainty and underpinned consumer and business confidence in their spending decisions.
However the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09 led to below average growth, rising unemployment
and the use of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to support economic growth and employment.
Below trend growth and rising unemployment were also experienced between 2013 and 2016 as the
Australian economy transitioned to non mining sources of growth after the mining investment boom.
Global growth also slowed leading to lower commodity prices and a lower terms of trade. This reduced
the growth in national income and deflation emerged in 2016-17 before a recovery in 2017-19.
The main macroeconomic policy instruments used by the Australian government include monetary
and fiscal policies. Monetary policy refers to the Australian government’s use of changes in the official
cash rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia to achieve the government’s economic objectives of economic
growth, price stability, full employment and external balance. Since 1996 the Reserve Bank has used an
inflation target of 2% to 3% consumer price inflation over the economic cycle for conducting monetary
policy. The achievement of the inflation target on average has been important in containing inflationary
expectations, sustaining economic growth and supporting Australia’s international competitiveness.
Fiscal policy refers to changes in taxation and government spending in the annual federal budget to affect
economic activity, resource allocation and income distribution. The Australian government adopted
the Charter of Budget Honesty Act in 1998 as a formal commitment to keep the budget in balance
over the economic cycle. It also committed to not increasing the tax burden and retiring public debt
by accumulating budget surpluses when economic growth was positive. The Australian government
achieved budget surpluses between 1996 and 2007 and paid off Australia’s public debt in 2005-06.
However the impact of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09 reduced taxation revenue and led to
increased government expenditure, larger budget deficits and public debt. The Australian government
adopted a Budget Repair Strategy in consecutive budgets between 2014 and 2018 budgets to reduce
the budget deficit. The Australian government forecast an underlying cash surplus of $7.1b in 2019-20.
Macroeconomic policies can be used to promote and sustain economic growth in the short to medium
term through demand management. Microeconomic policies can be used in the longer term to address
specific structural problems on the supply side of the economy which may limit future growth. Many
of the microeconomic policies undertaken have the objectives of increasing efficiency and productivity:
• Cuts to Australian protection such as tariffs and quotas have increased import competition, and
encouraged greater efficiency in industry and the export of more manufactured goods;
• Reforms to competition policy through the implementation of a national competition policy in
1995 has strengthened competition in Australia’s product and factor markets;
• Labour market reforms such as the adoption of enterprise or workplace bargaining in linking wage
outcomes to changes in labour productivity has increased workplace efficiency and productivity;
• Reforms to infrastructure such as electricity, air transport, gas, water and telecommunications have
made these product markets more efficient and competitive; and
• Taxation reform including the introduction of a broad based consumption tax (the GST) in 2000
has secured more taxation revenue for state governments to fund their spending on goods and
services, infrastructure, health and education. By broadening the tax base and placing more emphasis
on indirect taxes, the Australian government has been able to cut marginal rates of income tax and
increased income tax thresholds to reduce the overall tax burden on income earners.

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Fiscal Stimulus to Support Economic Growth During the GFC and in 2019
The Global Financial Crisis and world recession impacted on Australia’s rate of economic growth
in 2008-09. The Australian government used discretionary fiscal policy to introduce fiscal stimulus
measures to support aggregate demand, employment and growth in real GDP. This included short
term cash transfers to low and middle income households in November 2008 and February 2009, and
spending on new infrastructure projects in the 2009-10 budget. These measures were estimated to boost
real GDP by 2.75% in 2009-10 and 1.5% in 2010-11. Treasury estimated that without these fiscal
measures, the impact of the global recession on Australia would have resulted in the unemployment rate
reaching 10% of the workforce, whereas it reached a peak of 5.9% of the workforce in 2009 and fell to
4.9% with an economic recovery in 2011. The Australian government also used fiscal stimulus in the
form of tax cuts and increased spending on infrastructure in the 2019-20 budget to support growth in
2019 as economic growth slowed to about 2% and the unemployment rate remained above 5%.
Monetary Stimulus to Support the Transition to Non Mining Sources of Growth
The Reserve Bank eased the stance of monetary Figure 7.7: Changes in the Cash Rate
policy between November 2011 and August 2016 1994 to 2019
by lowering the cash rate from 4.75% to 1.5% and
then to 1% in 2019 as shown in Figure 7.7. The
easing in the stance of monetary policy supported
the Australian economy’s transition (after the
mining investment boom) to non mining sources
of economic growth such as consumption,
housing, non mining business investment and net
exports. In 2019 cuts in the cash rate were used
to support growth and reduce the unemployment
rate. Lower interest rates helped to support
increased borrowing and spending and also put
downward pressure on the exchange rate which
increased the competitiveness of Australian Source: Reserve Bank of Australia (2019), Statement on
Monetary Policy, August.
exports of resources, manufactures and services.

Population Ageing and Economic Growth

The first Intergenerational Report (2002) noted that population ageing will have major effects on future
growth prospects in the Australian economy because of the following impacts:
• Declining labour force participation rates especially amongst older workers;
• Slower overall employment growth due to declining participation rates; and
• Lower growth in real GDP.
Government policies to address the effects of population ageing on economic growth were detailed in
the fourth Intergenerational Report (2015) and included the following:
• Encouraging higher workforce participation by females, mature aged workers and young people;
• Investing more resources in education and training to boost skills formation and productivity; and
• Balancing the federal budget and retiring public debt to achieve fiscal discipline.
These measures were seen as critical in ensuring that labour force participation and productivity
continued to grow over the next 40 years. By encouraging higher workforce participation and boosting
productivity the Intergenerational Report (2015) argued that real incomes and living standards would
continue to rise in the future despite the impact of population ageing on economic growth and the
federal budget through increased spending on healthcare and welfare benefits such as pensions.

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REVIEW QUESTIONS
THE MEASUREMENT, SOURCES AND EFFECTS
OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

1. Explain how real GDP is calculated. How does the ABS measure GDP in Australia?

2. Calculate the value of real GDP in year 2 for an economy from the data in the following table:

Year Nominal GDP Consumer Price Index (CPI)

1 $1,000m 100
2 $1,600m 102

3. Distinguish between the value added, expenditure and incomes received methods of calculating
the value of total production.

4. How is the rate of growth in real GDP measured? Refer to Table 7.3 and describe the trends in
measures of Australian GDP between 2016-17 and 2017-18.

5. Refer to Figure 7.3 and describe the trends in Australia’s rate of economic growth between
2007-08 and 2018-19. Why did growth fall below trend between 2012 and 2019?

6. Outline the main sources of economic growth in Australia. Refer to the data in Table 7.4
in your answer.

7. Discuss the main benefits to Australia of achieving high rates of sustainable economic growth.

8. Discuss the main costs associated with sustaining high rates of economic growth in Australia.

9. Explain how improvements in efficiency, productivity and technology can increase aggregate
supply and economic growth in the long run.

10. Explain the main features of each stage of the business cycle. Refer to Figure 7.6
in your answer.

11. Explain how the Australian government can use counter cyclical or stabilisation policies to
smooth out fluctuations in the business cycle.

12. Discuss the main trends in the Australian business cycle between 2008-09 and 2018-19.

13. Discuss the main government policies used to promote economic growth in Australia.

14. Discuss the Australian government’s use of fiscal stimulus to support economic growth during the
GFC in 2008-09 and monetary stimulus to support economic growth between 2011 and 2019.

15. Discuss the potential effects of population ageing on Australia’s future growth performance.

16. Define the following terms and add them to a glossary:

aggregate demand counter cyclical policies per capita income
aggregate supply downswing population ageing
boom fiscal stimulus productivity
budget deficit investment spending rate of economic growth
budget surplus microeconomic reform real GDP
business cycle monetary stimulus recession
consumption spending net exports upswing

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[CHAPTER 7: SHORT ANSWER QUESTIONS

Expenditure
C + I = 140 + 0.8Y

C = 80 + 0.8Y

o
0 45 Income
Ye Ye 1

Refer to diagram above of the determination of the equilibrium level of national income in a
hypothetical economy and answer the questions below. Marks

1. What is the equilibrium level of income at Ye? (1)

2. What is meant by autonomous investment? (1)

3. State the formula for the multiplier and calculate the value of the multiplier if the MPC is 0.8. (2)

4. What is the change in the equilibrium level of national income from Ye to Ye1? (2)

5. Explain TWO costs and TWO benefits for this economy in achieving a higher rate of
economic growth. (4)

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[CHAPTER FOCUS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

“The fundamentals of the Australian economy remain sound. Real GDP is forecast to grow at
around its estimated potential rate of 2.75% in 2019-20 and 2020-21. Household consumption,
business investment, public final demand and exports are all expected to contribute to growth.
Following declines in housing prices and building approvals, partly in response to a re-balancing
in supply and demand, dwelling investment is expected to detract from growth.

Solid employment growth is expected to continue over the forecast period and the unemployment
rate is forecast to be 5%. Wage growth is expected to pick up as growth in the economy
strengthens and spare capacity in the labour market continues to be reduced.”

Australia’s Real GDP Growth 1992-93 to 2022-23 (f)

Source: Commonwealth of Australia (2019), Budget Strategy and Outlook 2019-20.

Explain the main sources of growth in the Australian economy after the end of the mining
investment boom.

[CHAPTER 7: EXTENDED RESPONSE QUESTION

Examine the arguments for and against increasing the rate of economic growth in Australia
and the macroeconomic and microeconomic policies that the Australian government can use to
sustain economic growth in the medium term.

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CHAPTER SUMMARY
ECONOMIC GROWTH
1. Economic growth refers to an increase in a country’s productive capacity as measured by changes
in its real GDP over time. Economic growth results from using more resources or increasing the
productivity of existing resource use in production. This will result in higher real output.

2. The equilibrium level of national income is the level of income towards which an economy moves.
Equilibrium is a situation in which there is no tendency for the level of national income to change.
The equilibrium level of national income can be determined by using the saving/investment
(leakage-injection) approach or the aggregate demand/aggregate supply (AD/AS) approach:

In equilibrium S = I or AD = AS.

3. Aggregate demand is the sum of the main components of spending in the economy including
consumption spending by households (C), investment spending by firms (I), net government
spending (G) and net exports (X - M).

4. The simple expenditure multiplier (k) in a three sector model of the economy is the extent to which
an initial change in autonomous consumption or autonomous investment spending is multiplied to
give a larger change in the equilibrium level of national income.

5. Economic growth is measured by changes in real GDP over time. Real GDP is nominal GDP or
GDP at current prices adjusted for changes in the price level or rate of inflation. In 2017-18 real
GDP in Australia was valued at $1,815,372m and the Australian economy grew by 2.9% in real
terms between 2016-17 and 2017-18 which was below the historical average of 3.25%.

6. The main sources of economic growth in Australia in 2017-18 were consumption spending (C)
accounting for 56.7% of GDP; private investment spending (I) which accounted for around 19.5%
of GDP; and government spending which accounted for 23.6% of GDP. Net exports (exports of
goods and services minus imports of goods and services) were in surplus and added to economic
growth in 2017-18.

7. Some of the main benefits of economic growth include rising real incomes and living standards as
well as employment creation, and the ability to export goods and services to overseas markets.
Economic growth may also result in higher tax revenue to the government which can be used to
finance social welfare to reduce poverty, as well as developing infrastructure in the economy.

8. Some of the costs associated with unsustainable economic growth may include a deterioration
in the natural environment due to higher pollution and over exploitation of natural resources.
Economic growth can also cause inflation if the rate of growth exceeds productive capacity. A
widening in the inequality of the distribution of income can also be associated with the process of
economic growth as not all members of society may share equally in the ‘growth dividend’.

9. Economic growth can be sourced from increases in productivity, efficiency and technological
advancements. These can increase aggregate supply or productive capacity in an economy in the
long term and sustain higher rates of economic growth without adding to inflationary pressures.

10. The business cycle refers to changes in the level of real economic activity over time. The phases
of the business cycle are the trough or recession; the upswing or upper turning point; the peak or
boom; and the downswing of the cycle. The government can use counter cyclical policies such as
monetary and fiscal policies to stabilise fluctuations in the business cycle. If used successfully, these
stabilisation policies will minimise inflation during inflationary booms of the cycle, and the rate of
unemployment during recessions or deflationary periods of the cycle. Microeconomic policies can
be used in the longer term to improve the efficiency of the economy’s allocation of resources.

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