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Lecture 11

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5 views15 pages

Lecture 11

Uploaded by

Sarah Alkindi
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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5-1

Exponential Distribution Lack of Memory Property

A random variable, X, is said to be without memory, or memoryless, if:

If X is the lifetime of some instrument, then the above equation states that the probability that the
instrument lives for at least (𝑡1 +𝑡2 )hours given that it has survived 𝑡1 hours is the same as the
initial probability that it lives for at least 𝑡2 hours
5-2

Example of memoryless property


The lifetime of a transistor has a mean of 1.25 years:
1. What is the probability that the transistor will function for at
least 2 more years?
P(T > 2) = 0.2
2. What is the probability that the transistor will function for at
least 2 more years, given that it survived already 3 years?
P(T > 5 | T > 3) = P(T > 2) = 0.2
3

Normal Distribution
• f(x) is a bell-shaped curve
• Characterized by 2 parameters:
 (mean)
 (standard deviation)
• Properties
1. Symmetric
2. Mean = Median = Mode
3. Range of X is unbounded
4. Empirical rules apply
5-4

The Normal Probability Distribution

The normal probability distribution is defined by the equation

2
1  x  
1   
2  
f( x) = e
σ 2π

for all values x on the real number line, where µ is the mean and 
is the standard deviation,
5-5

The Standard Normal Distribution


If x is normally distributed with mean  and standard deviation , then
the random variable z, described by the formula:

x
z

is normally distributed with mean 0 and standard deviation 1; this
normal is called the standard normal distribution
6

Computing Normal Probabilities


• Excel function:
=NORM.DIST(x, mean, standard_deviation, cumulative).
– NORM.DIST(x, mean, standard_deviation, TRUE) calculates the cumulative probability
– If cumulative is set to FALSE, the function simply calculates the value of the density
function f(x), which has little practical application.
7

Example 5.30

 The distribution for customer demand (units per month) is normal


with mean = 750 and standard deviation = 100
 Find the probability that demand will be:
1. at most 900 units/month
2. exceed 700 units/month
3. be between 700 and 900 units/month
8

Example 5.30: Question 1

• Probability that demand will be at most 900 units, or P(X ≤ 900):


– =NORM.DIST(900,750,100,TRUE) = 0.9332.
– In R: pnorm(900, mean=750, sd=100, lower.tail=T)
9

Example 5.30: Question 2

• Probability that demand will exceed 700 units, or P(X > 700).
– =1-NORM.DIST(700,750,100,TRUE) = 1 - 0.3085 = 0.6915
10

Example 5.30: Question 3

• Probability that demand will be between 700 and 900, or P(700 < X < 900):
– =NORM.DIST(900,750,100,TRUE) - NORM.DIST(700,750,100,TRUE) =0.9332 - 0.3085
= 0.6247
11

The normal distribution in reverse

Given a normal distribution with µ=40 and σ=6, find the value of x
that has
– 45% of the area to the left. x = 𝜇 + 𝜎𝑧
▪ Sol = 39.22
– 14% of the area to the right.
▪ Sol = 46.48
12

Example 5.31

• The distribution for customer demand (units per month) is normal


with mean = 750 and standard deviation = 100
• What level of demand would be exceeded at most 10% of the
time?
• Sol = 878.155 (because z = 1.29)
Normal Approximation to Binomial

This distribution is approximately normal if


np > 5 and n(1-p) > 5.
When using a normal distribution to approximate a binomial
distribution, the continuity correction (0.5) factor is used
Example

Example: A coin is tossed 10


times. Find the probability of
getting between 4 and 7 heads
inclusive using
1. the binomial distribution
2. the normal approximation to the
binomial distribution.
15

Solution in R
• dbinom(4,10,0.5) + dbinom(5,10,0.5)+dbinom(6,10,0.5) + dbinom(7,10,0.5)
= 0.7734375
OR:
• pbinom(7, size=10, prob=0.5) - pbinom(3, size=10, prob=0.5)
= 0.7734375
• Normal approximation:
• pnorm((7.5 - (10*0.5))/(sqrt(10*0.5*0.5)))-pnorm((3.5 -
(10*0.5))/(sqrt(10*0.5*0.5)))
= 0.771686

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