REVIEW

published: 12 March 2021

doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2021.609097

Climate Change Effects on

Aquaculture Production:
Sustainability Implications,
Mitigation, and Adaptations
Sahya Maulu 1,2*, Oliver J. Hasimuna 3,4 , Lloyd H. Haambiya 5 , Concillia Monde 6 ,
Confred G. Musuka 6 , Timothy H. Makorwa 2,7 , Brian P. Munganga 1,2 , Kanyembo J. Phiri 1
and Jean DaMascene Nsekanabo 2,8
1
Centre for Innovative Approach Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia, 2 Wuxi Fisheries College, Nanjing Agricultural University, Wuxi,
China, 3 Department of Fisheries, National Aquaculture Research and Development Centre, Ministry of Fisheries and
Livestock, Kitwe, Zambia, 4 Department of Zoology and Aquatic Sciences, School of Natural Resources, Copperbelt
University, Kitwe, Zambia, 5 Lake Tanganyika Fisheries Research Unit, Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, Mpulungu, Zambia,
6
Department of Agriculture and Aquatic Sciences, Kapasa Makasa University, Chinsali, Zambia, 7 Morogoro Fisheries Center,
Ministry of Fisheries and Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania, 8 College of Science and Technology, University of Rwanda,
Kigali, Rwanda

Aquaculture continues to significantly expand its production, making it the

fastest-growing food production sector globally. However, the sustainability of the
Edited by:
Sanzidur Rahman, sector is at stake due to the predicted effects of climate change that are not only a
Shandong University of Finance and future but also a present reality. In this paper, we review the potential effects of climate
Economics, China
change on aquaculture production and its implications on the sector’s sustainability.
Reviewed by:
Nesar Ahmed,
Various elements of a changing climate, such as rising temperatures, sea-level rise,
Deakin University, Australia diseases and harmful algal blooms, changes in rainfall patterns, the uncertainty of
Alexander Godfrey Murray,
external inputs supplies, changes in sea surface salinity, and severe climatic events have
Marine Scotland, United Kingdom
been discussed. Furthermore, several adaptation options have been presented as well
*Correspondence:
Sahya Maulu as some gaps in existing knowledge that require further investigations. Overall, climate
sahyamaulu@gmail.com change effects and implications on aquaculture production sustainability are expected to
be both negative and positive although, the negative effects outweigh the positive ones.
Specialty section:
This article was submitted to Adapting to the predicted changes in the short-term while taking mitigation measures in
Climate-Smart Food Systems, the long-term could be the only way toward sustaining the sector’s production. However,
a section of the journal
Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems
successful adaptation will depend on the adaptive capacity of the producers in different
regions of the world.
Received: 22 September 2020
Accepted: 18 February 2021 Keywords: adaptation, aquaculture production, climate change, greenhouse gases, effects, sustainability
Published: 12 March 2021

Citation:
Maulu S, Hasimuna OJ, INTRODUCTION
Haambiya LH, Monde C, Musuka CG,
Makorwa TH, Munganga BP, Phiri KJ The practice of aquaculture is a way to achieve sustainability in the production of aquatic products.
and Nsekanabo JD (2021) Climate
With the continued unsustainable harvests from capture fisheries, the sector is seen as the only
Change Effects on Aquaculture
Production: Sustainability Implications,
solution to meeting the rising demand for aquatic products globally (AskarySary et al., 2012; FAO,
Mitigation, and Adaptations. 2020). According to FAO (2020), aquaculture’s contribution to global fish production has continued
Front. Sustain. Food Syst. 5:609097. to rise, reaching 82.1 million tons (46%) out of the estimated 179 million tons of global production.
doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2021.609097 Furthermore, the share of aquaculture production out of the global fish production is expected

Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems | www.frontiersin.org 1 March 2021 | Volume 5 | Article 609097
Maulu et al. Aquaculture Sustainability Under Climate Change

to grow from the current 46 to 53% in 2030 (FAO, 2020). 2013, 2014; Holmyard, 2014; Barange et al., 2018; Dabbadie et al.,
However, the most urgent concern is whether the sector 2018).
is growing sustainably and fast enough to meet the future The effects of climate change on aquaculture have been
projected demand exacerbated by a rapidly growing human extensively studied and reviewed both at regional and global
population and a changing climate. Climate change is now scales (De Silva and Soto, 2009; Yazdi and Shakouri, 2010;
considered a risk to global food production and a major Clements and Chopin, 2016; Bueno and Soto, 2017; Chung
threat to the quality and quantity of production (Beach and et al., 2017; Ellis et al., 2017; Froehlich et al., 2017; Handisyde
Viator, 2008; Hamdan et al., 2015; Myers et al., 2017). Food et al., 2017; Harvey et al., 2017; Klinger et al., 2017; Beveridge
security, particularly access to dietary protein, is increasingly et al., 2018; Dabbadie et al., 2018). In the majority of these
being threatened by the predicted effects of climate change studies, however, there has been a tendency toward exploring
(Kandu, 2017). the negative effects of climate change projected on aquaculture
Climate change refers to variations that occur in the statistical while giving far less attention to the positive ones that
distribution of weather over extended periods, typically ranging are very critical for adaptation strategies. A broader study
from decades to millions of years (Yazdi and Shakouri, 2010; of both the negative and positive sides of climate change
IPCC, 2014). These variations may occur in the average weather will promote producers’ preparedness and help minimize the
or simply in the distribution of weather events around an average, risks on their production. Furthermore, the currently available
and may be limited to a particular region, or occurring across literature reviews do not investigate how the sustainability of
the whole globe (Yazdi and Shakouri, 2010). Humans have the aquaculture sector could be affected by the projected change
been recognized as the major contributor to climate change in the climate. Such information is very useful for identifying
through the use of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) for energy appropriate interventions to climate change aiming to sustain
supplies (Doubleday et al., 2013; Environmental Protection livelihood sources for aquaculture-dependent communities. In
Agency, 2016; Gao et al., 2016; Barange et al., 2018; IPCC, this review, we have explored the negative and positive sides of
2019, Palmer and Stevens, 2019) as well as deforestation and climate change in relation to aquaculture production, and their
forest degradation (Khaine and Woo, 2015; Riphah, 2015) implications for the sector’s sustainability. The first section of
that emit greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere. The the paper discusses the effects of climate change on aquaculture
increased accumulation of GHGs including Carbon dioxide production and sustainability implications, by highlighting how
(CO2 ), methane (CH4 ), nitrous oxides (N2 O), and fluorinated each specific element of climate change will affect the sector.
gases in the atmosphere over the years has been linked to The section that follows presents some mitigation and adaptation
these human activities. Already, climate change effects have been options that may have a wider application as well as challenges to
reported on various key economic sectors and services globally successful adaption. The last section concludes the findings and
(Troell et al., 2017; IPCC, 2018; Cook and Zolnikov, 2019; FAO, suggests the prospects for future development. To achieve this,
2020). In aquaculture, the majority of recent literature indicate a review of the recently published literature related to “Climate
that some changes in climate, such as rising temperatures, change and aquaculture” obtained from scientific, reputable, and
changing precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of some internationally recognized journals and websites was conducted.
extreme events are now evident on water resources, while others It was beyond the aim of this paper to provide a comprehensive
are still emerging (Fleming et al., 2014; Blanchard et al., 2017; review of all published literature for each section covered, rather,
Troell et al., 2017; Zolnikov, 2019). Recently, climate change it focuses on the most recent (not more than 10 years back)
effects on aquaculture sustainability have gained considerable and relevant literature on the subject. However, the priority in
interest owing to the sector’s significant contribution to global the selection of reviewed papers was given to the most recently
food security, nutrition, and livelihoods (Blanchard et al., 2017; published literature with a global and/or regional context with
Dabbadie et al., 2018; FAO, 2020). Despite some aspects of few exceptions.
uncertainty, several projections show that the entire aquaculture
value chain is vulnerable to the effects of climate change
(Cochrane et al., 2009; Fleming et al., 2014; Bueno and Soto, THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
2017; Barange et al., 2018; Dabbadie et al., 2018). However, AQUACULTURE AND IMPLICATIONS ON
the majority of the available literature is largely biased toward SUSTAINABILITY
showing how climate change will affect aquaculture production
systems leaving, other stages in the value chain unclear (Fleming Climate change effects on aquaculture production are expected
et al., 2014). Such biases limit our current understanding of the to be both direct and indirect (Handisyde et al., 2006; De
various extents to which the aquaculture sector will be affected. Silva and Soto, 2009). The direct effects include influencing
Additionally, the absence of global models that can take into the physical and physiology of finfish and shellfish stocks in
account both the direct and indirect effects of climate change production systems, while indirect effects may occur through
on aquaculture makes the quantification of the effects difficult altering the primary and secondary productivity, and structure
(Metian, 2017). What is certain, however, is that the effects will of the ecosystems, input supplies or by affecting product prices,
be persistent and likely to be irreversible, resulting in severe fishmeal, and fish oil costs, and other goods and services needed
consequences on the economy of those engaged in the sector, by fishers and aquaculture producers (Handisyde et al., 2006;
with extreme effects projected on poorer communities (IPCC, De Silva and Soto, 2009; Freeman, 2017; Adhikari et al., 2018).

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Maulu et al. Aquaculture Sustainability Under Climate Change

The various ways through which climate change will affect 2015), which contributes mainly CH4 , CO2 , and N2 O, making
aquaculture production and implications on the sustainability it the sector’s largest contributor (De Silva and Soto, 2009; Preto
of the sector are presented in detail later in this section. There et al., 2015; Zolnikov, 2018). On the other hand, aquaculture’s
is a consensus that aquaculture production does not occur in main GHGs emission is CO2 through the normal respiration
a vacuum, it has important links with other food production of aquatic animals (De Silva and Soto, 2009). However, there
systems (De Silva and Soto, 2009; Troell et al., 2014). Moreover, is still a gap in existing knowledge regarding the pathways
Blanchard et al. (2017), observed that to sustainably meet and contribution of aquaculture production to global GHGs
the ever-increasing demand for aquatic products, there is a emission, which requires further investigations. The contribution
need to recognize the strong link existing within and across of fisheries, mainly CO2 to the net food production GHGs
the goals of fisheries, aquaculture, and agriculture systems. emission contribution was estimated at 4% in 2011, while the
Figure 1 provides a simple illustration of how GHG emissions percent increase of emissions from the global fisheries industry
will affect aquaculture production as well as the contribution was estimated at 28% between 1990 and 2011 mainly due to
of capture fisheries, aquaculture, and agriculture activities to increased fishing operations (Daw et al., 2009; Parker et al., 2018).
climate change. Recently, aquaculture has recorded significant technological
Although aquaculture activities, such as power input, advances that enable the sector to expand its current production
transport, and feed production are considered the main pathways toward meeting the rising demand for aquatic products
of the sector’s contribution to GHGs (Cochrane et al., 2009; (Kobayashi et al., 2015; Morris et al., 2019; FAO, 2020). However,
Adhikari et al., 2018; Barange et al., 2018), the sector’s climate change is increasingly becoming one of the major
contribution is rather relatively small despite being significant issues confronting the sustainability of food production systems
when compared to other food production sectors (Barange et al., and aquaculture is no exception (Lim-Camacho et al., 2014;
2018). For example, the contribution of aquaculture to global IPCC, 2018; FAO, 2020). According to IPCC (2018), sustainable
GHGs particularly CO2 , emission in 2010 was estimated at 385 development which balances environmental protection,
million tons, ∼7% of the agricultural sector’s contribution that economic prosperity, and social well-being is closely linked to
year (Barange et al., 2018). Recent estimates by IPCC (2019) climate change effects and responses. This suggests that it is
show that agriculture, forestry, and other land uses contributed impossible to achieve sustainability in aquaculture production
about 13% CO2 , 44% CH4 , and 82% N2 O emissions from without addressing climate change effects. Sustainability, despite
anthropogenic activities for the period 2007–2016, accounting many definitions available (Johnston et al., 2007), can refer
for 23% of net anthropogenic emissions of GHGs. It is estimated to the management of financial, technological, institutional,
that 45% of the total net contribution by agriculture comes from natural, and social resources to ensure a constant supply of
animal production, particularly livestock farming (Preto et al., human needs, not only for the present but also for the future

FIGURE 1 | A simple illustration of the direct and indirect pathways through which climate change will affect aquaculture production.

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Maulu et al. Aquaculture Sustainability Under Climate Change

generations (Valenti et al., 2018). Therefore, for aquaculture external input supplies, changes in sea surface salinity, and severe
to be sustainable, it must survive throughout generations climatic events (Handisyde et al., 2006; Brander, 2007; Ficke
(Valenti et al., 2011). According to Valenti et al. (2018), the et al., 2007; Barange et al., 2018). These elements will not affect
sustainability of aquaculture systems may be assessed using aquaculture production equally, since, like any other farming
three sustainability indicators: environmental, economic, practice, the sector is defined in time, space, and size, and
and social indicators. Environmental sustainability indicators therefore, have a fair degree of maneuverability (De Silva and
include the efficient utilization of natural resources, pollution Soto, 2009) while affecting fish populations at different life cycles
prevention, and biodiversity conservation (Valenti et al., 2018). as well. Moreover, the current scientific knowledge regarding the
Economic sustainability focuses on the efficient use of financial effect of individual consequences varies and is often limited to
resources, economic feasibility, resilience and the capacity to the combined effects which make adaptation planning within the
absorb negative external expenses, and generation of funds aquaculture sector practically difficult (Seggel et al., 2016).
for re-investment; while social sustainability focuses on the
capacity of aquaculture to provide benefits to communities, Rising Temperature
such as food security, employment, equality of income and Temperature plays a critical role in the growth and development
opportunity distribution, and inclusion of vulnerable population of aquatic animals (Ngoan, 2018). Fish, being poikilothermic,
(Valenti et al., 2011, 2018). However, the currently available may particularly be sensitive to temperature variations resulting
literature on aquaculture sustainability has largely focused on from climate change (Sae-Lim et al., 2017; Adhikari et al., 2018).
environmental sustainability, with far less attention being given With the predicted 1.5◦ C rise in average global temperature
to the other two equally important dimensions (Tisdell and this century, increased mortalities are likely to occur for
Leung, 1999; Ahmed et al., 2019; Engle, 2019). Future studies most fish, especially cold-water species, such as the Atlantic
should critically investigate how climate-induced changes may halibut, Salmon and Cod, and intertidal shellfish due to thermal
affect the social and economic aspects of aquaculture production stress (Hamdan et al., 2012; Gubbins et al., 2013). Therefore,
sustainability. A case study conducted in Ghana showed that prolonged temperature stress may affect aquaculture productivity
climate-related changes could significantly lower the economic through various ways centered on lowered output. For example,
value of aquaculture products and induce poverty especially chronic stress may affect the neuroendocrine and osmoregulatory
in rural communities (Asiedu et al., 2019). Much of what is systems, altering cardiorespiratory performance and aerobic
currently available in the literature are predictions based on scope as well as immune responses of several economically
scientific models. important species (Brodie et al., 2014; Gazeau et al., 2014; Paukert
Numerous reports have emerged showing that climate change et al., 2016; Stévant et al., 2017; Stewart et al., 2019; Zhang
effects on aquaculture may vary depending on geographical et al., 2019). Furthermore, metabolism and physiology, as well
areas, economy, climatic zones, production systems, and cultured as feeding behavior and growth performance of most finfish
species (Merino et al., 2012; Bell et al., 2013; Cheung et al., 2013; and shellfish species are likely to be affected (Marcogliese, 2008;
Sae-Lim et al., 2017; Adhikari et al., 2018; Barange et al., 2018; Akegbejo-Samsons, 2009; Lemasson et al., 2018). Additionally,
IPCC, 2018; Zolnikov, 2019). For example, Barange et al. (2018) rising ocean temperatures and consequential ocean acidification
predicted higher effects on producers in developing nations slowly weaken the ocean carbon sink capacity, giving rise to
and poorer economies compared with those in developed ones. alterations in the hydrology and hydrography of water systems,
Handisyde et al. (2017) reported that climate change effects and the occurrence of red tides (Cochrane et al., 2009). These
on aquaculture producers are expected to differ depending on effects may lead to increased management costs and low
the culture environments (freshwater, brackish, and marine). productivity that threaten the economic and social sustainability
Several other studies have also shown that small-scale farmers of aquaculture production. Environmental sustainability may
will be more affected by climate change risks due to increased also be affected by thermal stratification in deep water bodies
production costs in farm management and lack of support resulting from temperature variations which may affect the
systems to recover from the effects compared to large-scale distribution and abundance of nutrients in the water, and in
producers (Schjolden, 2004; Sult et al., 2005; Hamdan et al., 2012; case of upwelling occurrence, aquaculture producers operating
King and Harrington, 2018). Furthermore, it is important to in open waters will suffer from severe economic losses (Seggel
note that climate change effects will not only affect aquaculture et al., 2016). However, information regarding the physiological
production systems, but also the entire value chain (Fleming response of the most economically important species to rising
et al., 2014; Barange et al., 2018). Hence, climate change could temperature is still limited to few species, and biased toward adult
be more viewed as an involuntary risk that creates vulnerability stages, leaving initial ontogenetic stages, such as embryos, larvae,
on the socio-economic development and raises stress especially and fingerlings unclear.
on food demand and supply as well as the livelihood system of On the other hand, warmer periods (within species’ tolerance
the farmers. conditions) may promote longer growing seasons, especially in
The predicted elements of a changing climate that threatens temperate regions, and favor the production of warmer water
production and sustainability of the aquaculture sector are species, such as the Giant tiger prawn, Tilapia, Oysters, and
summarized in Table 1, and include rising temperature, ocean Mussels (Pickering et al., 2011; Troell et al., 2017; Guyondet
acidification, diseases and harmful algal blooms changes in et al., 2018; Collins et al., 2020). Larger-scale investors that
rainfall/precipitation patterns, sea-level rise, the uncertainty of run hatcheries in sheltered locations may also benefit from

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Maulu et al.
TABLE 1 | Summary of the various elements of climate change and their effects on aquaculture production.

Rising temperatures Ocean acidification Diseases and Changes in Sea level rise External input Sea surface salinity Climatic events
Element harmful algal blooms rainfall/precipitation supplies uncertainty
Effects patterns

Negative effects - Poor growth and - Reduced species - Poor species growth - Droughts could - Destruction of several - Increased costs of - Reduced ocean’s - Destruction of
survival of cold-water growth performance and reduced survival increase production coastal ecosystems production due to heat storage capacity production systems
species (Hamdan and survival (Marcogliese, 2008; costs (Hambal et al., (Kibria et al., 2017) possible increase in (Seggel et al., 2016) (Hamdan et al., 2012)
et al., 2012; Gubbins (Clements and Sae-Lim et al., 2017) 1994) - Possible intrusion of the costs of inputs, - Reduced carbon and - Increased
et al., 2013) Chopin, 2016; IPCC, - Deterioration of water - Competing use of saline water into such as fish feeds nutrients circulation management costs
- Water quality 2018) quality (Ngoan, 2018) water during periods freshwater systems and seed (Hardy, (Seggel et al., 2016) (Canadian Institute
deterioration (Ngoan, - Poor coral skeleton - Increased production of drought and culture facilities 2010; Blanchard - Increased species for Climate Studies,
2018) development for costs due to disease (Handisyde et al., in some regions et al., 2017; Bueno mortalities (Jahan 2000)
- Weakened immune shell-forming species outbreaks (Gubbins 2006; Cochrane (Handisyde et al., and Soto, 2017; et al., 2019) - Increased loss of
system of cold-water (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2013). et al., 2009) 2006; Kibria et al., Khatri-Chhetri et al., culture species
species (Gubbins et al., 2007; - Increased outbreaks - Flooding may 2017) 2019) (Hamdan et al., 2012)
et al., 2013) Weatherdon et al., of exotic diseases increase loss of - May affect species
- Weakened ocean 2016; Kibria et al., (Gubbins et al., organisms in low land richness, abundance
carbon sink capacity 2017) 2013). areas (Bell et al., and distribution, and
(Cochrane et al., - Increased water 2010; Rutkayova phonological shifts.
2009) acidity levels et al., 2017)
- Thermal stratification (Rodrigues et al., - Flooding could
(Seggel et al., 2016) 2015; Clements and deteriorate water
- Increased virulence Chopin, 2016) quality and pollute
5

of warmer water - Increased production the environment

pathogens (Sae-Lim costs in marine areas (Kibria et al., 2017)
et al., 2017) (Munday et al., 2011; - Destruction of
Frommel et al., 2012) production facilities
(Bell et al., 2010;
Rutkayova et al.,
2017)
Positive effects - Extended growing - Increased production - Possible elimination - Flooding may - May increase areas - Possible identification - Possible increase in - Better mixing of water
seasons for warmer feasibility in of cold-water increase suitable suitable for brackish of alternative and the cultivation of column and nutrients
water species hatcheries (Gubbins pathogens (Sae-Lim areas for aquaculture water culture sustainable input tolerant species (Seggel et al., 2016)
(Pickering et al., et al., 2013) et al., 2017) production in some species, such as supplies, such as (Jahan et al., 2019) - May minimize rising

Aquaculture Sustainability Under Climate Change

2011; Gubbins et al., - Identification of more - May facilitate the regions (Bell et al., shrimps and mud protein sources to temperature
2013; Troell et al., marine species for development of 2013) crab (Handisyde replace conventional pressures by
2017; Guyondet culture (Gubbins species with better - Droughts could et al., 2006; Kibria sources (Hardy, minimizing the
March 2021 | Volume 5 | Article 609097

et al., 2018) et al., 2013) resistant to diseases promote et al., 2017) 2010) temperature (Seggel
- Further (Sae-Lim et al., 2017) developments in et al., 2016)
developments in - Possible identification wastewater
genetic breeding and development of management
possibility (Gubbins new species (Beveridge et al.,
et al., 2013; (Blanchard et al., 2018)
Blanchard et al., 2017)
2017)
Maulu et al. Aquaculture Sustainability Under Climate Change

market opportunities emerging due to the decline of preferred 2017). For example, calcifying species in locations where CO2
specimens in the wild as a result of degrading coral reefs is not the major driver of acidification are predicted to be the
(Bell et al., 2010). In cold regions, such as the Arctic, warmer most affected (Cornwall et al., 2012; Clements and Chopin,
periods are projected to favor the expansion of aquaculture 2016). Although seaweed is considered an important sink for
production (Chan et al., 2019). Besides, warmer periods may atmospheric CO2 (Chung et al., 2013, 2017; Duarte et al., 2017),
provide opportunities to culture new species and facilitate few studies have evaluated the effects of climate change on
further developments in genetic improvements of aquatic seaweed production, probably because its production is limited
organisms (Gubbins et al., 2013; Bueno and Soto, 2017). to certain regions (Sondak et al., 2016). According to Gubbins
These opportunities will favor social sustainability through et al. (2013), however, the future changes in ocean carbonate
increased production outputs and employment opportunities, chemistry are difficult to predict with any certainty and the effects
and economic sustainability through increased profits and of this are hard to expound because of the difficulties associated
reduced management costs in these areas. However, achieving with monitoring long-term biological responses to very small
this will require advances in molecular biology and applying changes observed under experimental conditions. Furthermore,
practical methods of genetic improvement in aquaculture the majority of the available reports from experiments regarding
although this may threaten environmental sustainability in case the effects of ocean acidification on aquaculture species have
of hybridization with species in natural waters. been conducted in combination with rising temperature effects
(Rodrigues et al., 2015).
Ocean Acidification A positive impact of ocean acidification is that the partial
Ocean acidification occurs due to a decline in pH levels of or total dependence of large-scale aquaculture producers on
ocean water for an extended period (usually over decades) hatcheries for spat production may create huge economic
resulting from atmospheric CO2 uptake (Richards et al., 2015; gains for the hatchery owners. Additionally, this may provide
Bahri et al., 2018). The oceans are estimated to store about more employment opportunities to local communities since
50 times more CO2 than the atmosphere (Seggel et al., 2016). these hatcheries will require huge labor in response to the
The projected increase in CO2 uptake by oceans at 1.5◦ C or growing demand, thereby favoring the social and economic
more global warming will have adverse effects on the growth, sustainability of aquaculture production. Although the effects of
development, calcification, survival, and abundance of several ocean acidification on finfish is poorly understood (Wittmann
aquatic species (IPCC, 2018). Increased accumulation of CO2 and Pörtner, 2013; Clements and Chopin, 2016), the presence of
in water could result in increased water acidity levels (pH calcified otoliths in finfish, especially marine species, makes them
decrease) (Rodrigues et al., 2015; Clements and Chopin, 2016) susceptible to ocean acidification (Clements and Chopin, 2016),
which threatens the environmental sustainability of aquaculture and their growth and development may particularly be affected
production systems through water quality deterioration leading (Frommel et al., 2014), RNA viability (Franke and Clemmesen,
to poor productivity. Moreover, the rise in ocean acidity reduces 2011), and damage tissues, and impairing respiration (Munday
the availability of carbonate required for the construction of et al., 2009; Frommel et al., 2012).
coral skeletons (Calcification) in shell-forming organisms, such
as shrimps, mussels, oysters, or corals (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., Diseases and Harmful Algal Blooms
2007; Weatherdon et al., 2016; Kibria et al., 2017), which Diseases in aquaculture, such as bacterial, parasitic, viral, and
potentially threatens marine aquaculture production (Yazdi and fungal diseases are likely to be affected by a changing temperature
Shakouri, 2010; Kroeker et al., 2014; Rodrigues et al., 2015). regime, but in a largely unpredictable manner (Collins et al.,
For example, wild spat oyster production may decline due to 2020). What is certain, however, is that when cultured species
increased predation rates of the juveniles following poor coral are exposed to thermal stress conditions, they become more
skeleton formation which lowers the collection rates (Blanchard susceptible to diseases and that warmer conditions may result
et al., 2017). Consequently, this is likely to force large-scale in the establishment of exotic diseases (Collins et al., 2020).
producers to rely on hatcheries for spat oyster production which The vulnerability of finfish and shellfish to pathogens is a major
increases the production costs. This could lower production determinant of diseases and is likely to be affected by both
outputs and profits, and pose negative implications on the social direct and indirect thermal stressors (Chiaramonte et al., 2016).
and economic sustainability of aquaculture production in these Therefore, warm water disease outbreaks are predicted to occur
regions. In seawater, rising acidity levels could significantly affect more frequently in addition to the possibility of discovering
the physiology and metabolism of aquatic species by disrupting new ones under a changing climate (Sae-Lim et al., 2017).
the intercellular transport mechanisms (Pörtner et al., 2004). Rising temperature is likely to accelerate the replication rate,
Although difficult to capture at a global scale (Froehlich et al., virulence, life cycle longevity, and transmission of pathogens
2018), the ability of species to respond to changes in ocean acidity among several finfish and shellfish species (Marcogliese, 2008).
will depend on species adaptive capacity (Thomsen et al., 2017), Moreover, the increasing temperature pressures may promote
rate of change (Cooley et al., 2012; Mangan et al., 2017), as the emergence of epizootic diseases in aquaculture and cause
well as complex biophysical feedbacks (Silbiger and Sorte, 2018). serious economic challenges. Already, the outbreak of epizootic
Macroalgal (seaweed) production may also be affected by ocean diseases remains one of the most important factors that limit
acidification, but such effects will depend on the acquisition the success of aquaculture production systems in many countries
kinetics of inorganic carbon by different species (Chung et al., of the world (Maulu et al., 2019). It is also predicted that

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Maulu et al. Aquaculture Sustainability Under Climate Change

warm water pathogens, such as Sea lice will remain a challenge and inducing poverty in communities. According to Rutkayova
in salmon culture and further warming is likely to worsen et al. (2017), however, the percent loss of fish during periods of
the infections in cold temperate conditions, requiring more extreme flooding will depend on the species and age of individual
treatments thus more expenses (Collins et al., 2020). Overall, species. The authors further observed that percent losses are
the increased occurrence of diseases in aquaculture production likely to decrease with increasing fish age. However, it should
systems will lead to reduced profits, consequently, affecting be noted that heavier rainfall may increase the areas suitable for
the social and economic sustainability aspects of aquaculture aquaculture ponds that rely on rainwater in low-lying tropical
production. Conversely, cold water diseases, such as vibriosis and regions, thereby favoring the social and economic sustainability
winter ulcer that affects Atlantic salmon may gradually become in such regions (Bell et al., 2013). It is also reported that
extinct due to the emerging unfavorable conditions (Sae-Lim macroalgal, such as kelp productivity may be affected by heavier
et al., 2017) which may favor the production of this fish species. rainfall which may bring varied nutrient loadings to nearshore
Several studies have also associated the outbreak of some environments (Collins et al., 2020). Variability in nutrient loading
harmful algal blooms to the changes in climatic conditions under variable precipitation may also favor invasive short-lived
(Wasmund et al., 1998; Edwards and Richardson, 2004; Edwards algal species rather than the longer-lived kelp species normally
et al., 2006; Moore et al., 2008; De Silva and Soto, 2009; Lafferty, considered suitable for cultivation (Gubbins et al., 2013).
2009; Trainer et al., 2019). Algal blooms are a serious threat Drought events may lead to water stress, such as shortages and
to the environmental sustainability of aquaculture production. quality deterioration that have negative effects on aquaculture
For example, flagellates and dinoflagellates taxonomic groups, production (Hambal et al., 1994). The predicted water shortages
and other harmful species have been reported to contain driven by climate change will lead to increased conflicts for
potentially toxic or nuisance species that can be responsible water among the different user groups, such as aquaculture,
for stress or kills in finfish and shellfish (Hinder et al., 2012; agriculture, domestic, and industries (Handisyde et al., 2006;
Gubbins et al., 2013; Basti et al., 2019). Consequently, this Barange et al., 2018). This will affect all the dimensions of
could have negative implications on the social and economic aquaculture sustainability. However, there is a need to further
aspects of aquaculture sustainability. Recently, an unprecedented investigate how different species and life stages of fish, especially
loss of fish ever recorded worldwide was reported in Chilean those of economic importance will respond to changes in the
aquaculture due to the expansion of Pseudochattonella cf. precipitation pattern.
verruculosa and Alexandrium catenella species whose outbreak
were associated with climate-induced changes in water column Sea Level Rise
stratification (Trainer et al., 2019). Furthermore, some studies Sea level rise projections by IPCC (2018) indicate that the rise
have reported pathologies, such as inflammation, atrophy, and will be around 0.1 meters lower under 1.5◦ C global warmings
necrosis in several organs of bivalve mollusks resulting from compared with 2◦ C by 2100. However, this rise is expected to
harmful algal blooms (Haberkorn et al., 2010; Basti et al., 2011; continue beyond 2100 with the magnitude and rate of the rise
Hégaret et al., 2012). Although there is limited information likely to depend on the future GHGs pathways (IPCC, 2018).
on the mechanisms through which climate change will affect The rise in sea level may destroy several coastal ecosystems,
toxic substances in aquaculture, Farrell et al. (2015) reported such as mangroves and salt marshes, which are considered
that temperature variation can affect the metabolism of most crucial for maintaining wild fish stocks, as well as supplying
widespread harmful algae. seed for aquaculture production (Kibria et al., 2017). This
will negatively affect aquaculture breeding programs and the
Changes in Rainfall (Precipitation) Pattern economic sustainability of the sector. Higher sea level is predicted
Changes in rainfall patterns will affect aquaculture production to affect aquaculture production facilities, such as ponds, cages,
and sustainability in two directly opposite ways; increased tanks, and pens particularly in lowland regions through the
rainfall (Flooding) and periods of low or no rainfall (Drought). intrusion of saline water (Kibria et al., 2017). Salinization of
According to the IPCC (2018), risks resulting from droughts groundwater is regarded as harmful to aquaculture, freshwater
events are likely to be higher at 2◦ C compared with 1.5◦ C of fisheries, and agricultural production (Handisyde et al., 2006;
global warming in a given region, while flooding event patterns Kibria et al., 2017). Therefore, salinization renders aquaculture
are difficult to predict with certainty. Increased levels of rainfall, environmentally unsuitable for production leading to higher
particularly if it occurs as heavier events, will increase the production costs and lower economic gains. Sea level rise
production risks in lowland areas (Bell et al., 2010). These risks is also likely to result in changes in species composition,
include losing fish from ponds during floods, invasion of ponds organisms’ abundance and distribution, ecosystem productivity,
by unwanted species, and ponds damage resulting from infilling and phenological shifts that may threaten inland and marine
and washing away of walls (Rutkayova et al., 2017). The mixing aquaculture production (Doney et al., 2012). Besides, aquaculture
of pond water and fish with those in the wild could negatively activities in coastal areas bring social and environmental benefits
affect the environmental sustainability of aquaculture production that may be affected both directly and indirectly by rising sea
mainly through the introduction of invasive fish species and levels thereby affecting the production and sustainability of the
water quality deterioration. Furthermore, fish losses from ponds sector. On the positive side, sea-level rise may increase the
threaten the social and economic dimensions of aquaculture areas suitable for brackish water culture of high-value species,
sustainability by lowering the economic gains of the producers such as shrimp and mud crab (Handisyde et al., 2006; Kibria

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Maulu et al. Aquaculture Sustainability Under Climate Change

et al., 2017). This may favor aquaculture production sustainability and ocean circulation changes or induced directly by climate
by presenting new opportunities for aquaculture production change (Cooper, 1988; Robinson et al., 2005). These variations
particularly those in coastal areas. may affect oceanic circulation and stratification, and hence, the
ocean’s capacity to store heat, and carbon and nutrient circulation
Uncertainty of External Input Supplies (Seggel et al., 2016). Since climate change is expected to cause
Agriculture and capture fisheries are the primary sources of these variations, the environmental sustainability of aquaculture
external inputs for aquaculture production, suggesting a strong will be affected. Most aquatic organisms have specific salinity
relationship among these systems. According to Cochrane et al. levels within which they can survive, any alterations may lead
(2009), aquaculture is a complementary activity to capture to mortalities and production losses (Jahan et al., 2019). In
fisheries, and though more similar to agriculture in its practice, stripped catfish, salinity levels above optimal requirements have
it has important links with capture fisheries. While agriculture been reported to cause reduced survival, growth, and red blood
is the main source of ingredients for energy requirements in cells, suggesting an effect on the fish’s immune system (Jahan
aquatic animal feeds and likely to be the main supplier of et al., 2019). Meaning that variations in sea salinity are expected
protein sources in the future, capture fisheries are currently to negatively affect the economic gains for some aquaculture
the principal supplier of protein sources as well as wild seed species which could affect the social and economic aspects
and broodstock for aquaculture (Hardy, 2010). Recently, due of aquaculture production sustainability negatively. However,
to the declining fish catches from capture fisheries, there has the higher salinity effect has been strongly correlated with
been an increasing channeling of cereal and soy production to aquaculture production systems in downstream regions of coastal
aquaculture production for feed manufacturing (Ytrestoyl et al., areas (Nguyen et al., 2018). For example, Ahmed (2013),
2015). However, due to its sensitivity to climate change effects, reported negative effects on the production performance of
agricultural production is under threat and hence, the supply of freshwater prawns at higher salinity. Baker et al. (2005) reported
these inputs to sustain aquaculture production continues to be increased mortality in juvenile clams, while (Rodrick, 2008)
threatened as well (Khatri-Chhetri et al., 2019). The impact of reported increased susceptibility to bacterial invasion in oysters
climate change on capture fisheries through alterations in the at lower water salinity. Furthermore, Rodrick (2008) observed
abundance and distribution of fish species will have a significant that variations in salinity may affect the immune system of
effect on fishmeal and fish oil supplies, and the sustainability oysters, particularly the ability of hemocytes (blood cells) to
of fish breeding programs due to increased scarcity of wild resist foreign bacterial invasion. Although compared to other
seeds (Bradley et al., 2015; Blanchard et al., 2017; Bueno and marine mollusks, clams are reported to have a wider tolerance
Soto, 2017). The ineffective management of fisheries and rising to salinity, Baker et al. (2013) noted that they cannot endure
fishmeal prices are already a significant threat to aquaculture prolonged exposure to either high or low salinity. Increased
production sustainability (Black and Hughes, 2017). Moreover, mortalities of abalone in farms, particularly those operating in
the projected impacts of climate change on fishery resources are coastal areas have also been predicted under a changing climate
likely to accelerate the mismanagement of capture fisheries (Black through the intrusion of saline water from marine environments
and Hughes, 2017; Barange, 2019). (Morash and Alter, 2015). In general, variation in water salinity
Generally, the projected impact of climate change on will lead to increased mortalities for several species which may
agriculture and capture fisheries is expected to lower the affect the economic and social sustainability of the sector through
availability and increase the cost of the inputs, such as fish increased species’ losses and higher management costs.
seed and feed ingredients required for aquaculture production. However, the majority of the current knowledge on the
Consequently, aquaculture production costs are expected to rise, effect of climate-related changes on salinity in aquaculture
making it more difficult, especially for small-scale producers to has been biased toward reporting the effect of higher salinity.
survive in the sector. On the other hand, the rising fishmeal There is a need for studies that focus on the effect of
and fish oil prices are likely to accelerate developments in salinity levels lower than an optimal requirement on finfish
scientific studies that seek to identify alternative protein and oil and shellfish. Furthermore, the response of several species of
sources to replace conventional ingredients in aquafeeds (Hardy, commercial importance to climate-induced salinity changes is
2010). Recently, plant proteins, mainly oilseeds from agriculture poorly understood. This information is especially useful for
have attracted considerable attention for use in aquaculture adaptation in aquaculture, as changes in salinity may favor the
protein sources. Today, the need to replace fishmeal and fish cultivation of tolerant species (Jahan et al., 2019).
oils with alternative ingredients in feed formulations has become
an important developmental agenda aimed at sustaining the Severe Climatic Events
aquaculture sector. Severe climatic events, such as cyclones, waves, and storms are
expected to influence aquaculture development especially marine
Changes in Sea Surface Salinity ornamental products, and those in coastal areas (Toussaint et al.,
Salinity is seen as a variable parameter reflecting the input of 2018). For example, the coral and giant clam farmers in tropical
freshwater from precipitation, ice melting, river runoff, loss of villages may face the risk of increased losses as a result of
water through evaporation, and the mixing and circulation of bleaching, while those in sub-tropical regions are likely to suffer
ocean surface water with underground water (Koblinsky et al., greater risks, such as loss of production equipment and stock due
2003; Cochrane et al., 2009). Variations in sea salinity may occur to rougher sea conditions related to stronger cyclones (Hamdan
due to increased evaporation resulting from rising temperature et al., 2012). The occurrence of storm surges, waves, and coastal

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Maulu et al. Aquaculture Sustainability Under Climate Change

erosion are considered the most dangerous threats to aquaculture minimize air and water pollution (VGREEN, 2012; Barange et al.,
production and other related coastal activities (Hamdan et al., 2018). Feed production in aquaculture is particularly seen as
2012). Severe storms will result in high losses to the farmers the sector’s major contributor to GHG emissions (VGREEN,
due to damage on farms resulting in higher costs of recovering 2012). For example, the use of sinking feeds is reported to be
the damaged activities (Canadian Institute for Climate Studies, more environmentally friendly compared with floating feeds
2000). For instance, cage aquaculture will likely face higher risks (Hardy, 2010; VGREEN, 2012). However, mitigation is a long-
from the effects of cyclones and waves. The increased storminess term solution to climate change whose benefits may take a
projected for certain seasons in certain regions may also increase significant amount of time to be realized (Elum et al., 2017; ACT,
the risk of aquatic organism escapes due to equipment failure 2018). Besides, effective mitigation requires collective action on
and may require site relocation or changes in production a global scale since most GHGs accumulate over time and mix
practices which may seriously affect the social and economic globally, resulting in a global effect (IPCC, 2014). Therefore, it
sustainability of aquaculture in these areas (Gubbins et al., 2013). is suggested that mitigation be implemented hand in hand with
According to Barange et al. (2018), severe climatic events are adaption strategies for better and effective results (ACT, 2018;
reported to have increased in several regions in the recent IPCC, 2019).
past and are represented by at least 80% of all climate-related Adaptation focuses on building resilience to the consequences,
disasters. However, these events are predicted to occur more and the capacity to utilize emerging opportunities sustainably
frequently in Africa, particularly in East and Southern Africa and ethically (Bueno and Soto, 2017). It involves making
(IPCC, 2019). considerations in advance, the expected changes, and taking
On the other hand, severe climatic events, such as storms those changes into account in short-term decision making and
will likely play a significant role in mixing water columns long-range planning (Yazdi and Shakouri, 2010). Therefore,
and nutrients that have previously been restricted to certain it can come in various forms, including technical changes,
columns due to thermal stratification (Seggel et al., 2016) which changes in the behavior of resource users/producers, or changes
could promote the environmental sustainability of aquaculture in the governance system (Lorenzen et al., 2017). Moreover,
production. Moreover, storms may be very crucial in decreasing FAO (2018) provides three target areas upon which successful
water temperatures and associated risks that may harm both adaptation interventions may be centered, namely: institutions
cultured and wild organisms (Seggel et al., 2016). and management, livelihood adaptation, and resilience and risk
reduction. However, a combination of these areas may most
likely yield better results compared to a single area focus
MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS looking at the strong link that exists among them and their
complementary action. Currently, adaptation is seen as the
Climate change-related risks to health, food security, livelihood, most viable option at the producers’ disposal to cope with the
water supply, human security, and economic development will effects of climate change on aquaculture (Yazdi and Shakouri,
increase under the projected 1.5◦ C global warming, with a 2010). Moreover, IPCC (2014) noted that adaptation experience
further increase expected at 2◦ C (IPCC, 2018). In the face of to climate change effects continues to rise across regions in
such risks, both the industry and communities will need to both the public and private sectors, becoming more recognized
mitigate and adapt to the changing climate by taking advantage and included in developmental plans by several governments.
of new opportunities emerging from altered resources (Lorenzen Furthermore, adaptation options that can also be used for
et al., 2017). Mitigation and adaptation may help prepare the mitigating GHG emissions are more recommended since they
farming communities, ecosystems, and populations, in general, can offer synergies that may lead to reduced costs in many
to build resilience and deal with climate change as effectively sectors (IPCC, 2018). Most importantly, adaptation is not a one-
and efficiently as possible (Zolnikov, 2019). Mitigation focuses size-fits-all situation, considering the dynamics of vulnerability
on reducing or reversing the rate of climate change (Leal Filho, and exposure, and their linkage with the socio-economic and
2011; ACT, 2018). This involves mainly reducing GHGs emission sustainable development of various sectors (IPCC, 2014, 2018;
with a special focus on CO2 emissions which accounts for Clements and Chopin, 2016; Zolnikov, 2019). According to the
more than 60% of human enhanced increases (Mohanty et al., IPCC (2018), successful adaptation in a changing climate will
2010; IPCC, 2014; Environmental Protection Agency, 2016). depend on the adaptive capacity of the producers in a given
According to the IPCC (2018), reductions in CO2 emissions nation or region. For example, more severe effects have been
may be achieved through a combination of new and existing predicted on the producers in developing countries due to low
technologies and practices, including electrification, hydrogen, adaptive capacity (Figure 2) (Handisyde et al., 2017; Barange
sustainable bio-based feedstocks, product substitution, and et al., 2018; IPCC, 2018; King and Harrington, 2018; Zolnikov,
carbon capture utilization and storage. In aquaculture, producers 2019). Although adaptation options are more likely to be effective
and other stakeholders may play a significant role in mitigating and sustainable if selected according to a country’s context and
climate change effects by making necessary adjustments in enabling environments (Bradley et al., 2015; Blanchard et al.,
their production practices aimed at minimizing the emission 2017; IPCC, 2018), we have highlighted some options that may
of GHGs. Specifically, this includes the use of environmentally have a global application (Table 2).
friendly practices and technology, such as solar energy, proper Diversification of livelihoods may be one of the keys to
feeding practices, and sustainable wastewater management to successful adaptation because it gives the producers options from

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Maulu et al. Aquaculture Sustainability Under Climate Change

FIGURE 2 | World map showing the adaptive capacity of the nations to climate change effects on aquaculture. Source: Handisyde et al. (2017).

TABLE 2 | Some adaptation options to climate change effects on aquaculture among aquaculture producers requires integrating indigenous
that may be applied in many regions globally. knowledge with government interventions (Leal Filho, 2011).
Adaptation option References
Unfortunately, the major factor affecting the adaptive capacity of
farmers, households, and communities at large is their access to,
Livelihood diversification Bell et al., 2013; Blanchard et al., control over, and ability to use productively the natural, human,
2017; Duarte et al., 2017; social, physical, and financial assets, i.e., the livelihood capital
Zolnikov, 2019 (Bueno and Soto, 2017).
Shifting to less vulnerable or more resilient De Young et al., 2012; Aquaculture producers may also benefit from shifting to
species, techniques, or regions. May also Lim-Camacho et al., 2014;
include selective breeding for more Sae-Lim et al., 2017; Dabbadie
aquaculture species, techniques, or areas that are less vulnerable
resistant aquaculture species et al., 2018 or are more resilient to a changing environment and resources
Enhancing the effective management of Frusher et al., 2013; Malcorps (Lim-Camacho et al., 2014). For example, Integrated Multi-
capture fisheries et al., 2019 Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA) system is more environmentally
Utilization of local and indigenous Leal Filho, 2011; IPCC, 2014; friendly, sustainable, and economically rewarding as well as
knowledge Magrin et al., 2014; Shelton, more resilient to changing climate compared to monoculture
2014; Makondo and Thomas, because it combines finfish farming with other species (Osch
2018
et al., 2019). Aquaculture producers may also make use of altered
Introduction and promotion of insurance Shelton, 2014; Pongthanapanich
resources, such as land by practicing new farming systems.
schemes among the producers especially et al., 2016; Barange et al., 2018
small-scale farmers Furthermore, shifting to or developing aquaculture species that
are more resilient to climate change is one of the most promising
areas for adaptation (De Young et al., 2012). For example,
Sae-Lim et al. (2017) noted that selection of species based on
which they can derive their livelihoods and build appropriate feed efficiency and defining a breeding goal that minimizes the
resilience from climate change impacts (Bell et al., 2013; Duarte emission of GHGs will play a key role in a changing climate.
et al., 2017; Zolnikov, 2019). It involves combining aquaculture However, this requires the consideration of the environmental
production systems with other sectors, such as agricultural and social benefits of communities compared to focusing on
systems, either integrated or as separate systems. Diversifying short-term economic benefits (Olesen et al., 2000). Further, it is
livelihood sources is extremely useful, especially in some regions important to note that there will be costs, such as research and
or countries where fish production is predicted to decline, development associated with developing new aquaculture species
while agricultural production is expected to increase (Blanchard (Harvey et al., 2017).
et al., 2017). However, successful diversification requires that Another way of adapting to climate change among the
government policies provide incentives for efficient utilization aquaculture producers is by ensuring a continued supply of fish
of resources, equity, and protection of the environment (Troell from capture fisheries by promoting changes in fishers’ behavior,
et al., 2014). Moreover, improving livelihood diversification changes in governance, as well as the use of effective management

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Maulu et al. Aquaculture Sustainability Under Climate Change

plans and strategies. For example, applying changes to the against the effects of climate change (Barange et al., 2018).
management of the tradable quota allocated to individual fishers However, the viability of the aquaculture insurance business may
(Frusher et al., 2013). Besides, there is a need to incorporate depend on how efficient and lower-risk aquaculture becomes,
climate variability and change in the modeling of aquaculture apart from climate change risks (Barange et al., 2018). Being
undertakings to reduce the impacts of climate change in a relatively new subject in aquaculture, there is a need for
fisheries-based livelihoods. According to FAO (2020), global investigations to expound its benefits and implications on the
production from capture fisheries has stagnated or declined economic conditions of the farmers, especially among the most
in some years over the past few decades. The ever-increasing vulnerable communities.
global population and the consequential rising demand for
aquatic products are considered the primary cause of dwindling
production from capture fisheries (Maulu and Musuka, 2018). Challenges to Successful Adaptation and
Currently, aquaculture production heavily relies on resources Proposed Strategies
from capture fisheries, such as fishmeal, fish oils, broodstocks, Although adaptation is considered the most viable short-term
and wild seeds as crucial production inputs (Laffoley, 2013; FAO, solution to climate change, its implementation may face several
2018; Malcorps et al., 2019). Therefore, effective management of challenges. For example, failure to acknowledge the fact that
resources from fisheries may contribute to a sustainable supply of climate change will affect the producers differently based on
aquaculture inputs. their specific region, environment, knowledge regarding climate
The utilization and incorporation of local and indigenous change, population, community dynamics, economic conditions,
knowledge in adaptation strategies have also been shown to offer and present industry (Marshall et al., 2009). Unless these factors
effective adaptation to climate change (Leal Filho, 2011; IPCC, are taken into account, adaptation strategies will probably
2014; Magrin et al., 2014; Makondo and Thomas, 2018). While be of little benefit to the producers and stakeholders in the
scientific understanding provides a generalized insight regarding aquaculture sector (Zolnikov, 2019). To address this, there is a
climate change and its potential effects, indigenous knowledge need for governments, especially in more vulnerable countries,
may provide specific details about the physical environment, to ensure that policy formulations related to climate change
infrastructure systems, livelihood status, behavior, governance interventions recognize this fact to meet producer needs in their
organization, and other attributes that are crucial for managing specific situation. Therefore, more efforts and resources should
community resources (Kettle et al., 2014). For example, the be directed toward the most vulnerable producer groups. Also,
use of traditional methods and indicators to predict changes in as observed by Lorenzen et al. (2017) adaptation is more likely
weather patterns (temperature, rainfall, humidity, etc.) may help to be successful if producers are made aware of the drivers and
the producers prepare for expected changes and build resilience impact pathways, monitoring a broad suite of impact indicators,
(Zolnikov, 2019). Information on how such incorporation has and adaptive decision-making. In recent years, several models
been utilized in aquaculture production is still largely unknown. have been used to predict the impacts of climate change on
However, in other sectors, such as agriculture, it has successfully food production systems including aquaculture (Rosenzweig
been used by farming communities. A good example is in et al., 2014; Saba et al., 2016; Tiller et al., 2016; Blanchard
Kenya, where indigenous knowledge helped some farming et al., 2017; Galbraith et al., 2017). However, wrong projections
communities prepare for climate change effects and reduce may affect successful adaptation to climate change effects by
susceptibility to food insecurity (Leal Filho, 2011). Moreover, the the aquaculture producers. The capacity of the producers
integration of indigenous knowledge with scientific knowledge to adapt to climate change will likely depend on accurate
may be one of the most powerful tools for strengthening future projections against different systems of the aquaculture
other adaptation strategies, despite having been overlooked sector. Unrealistic and biased estimation of the potential risks
(Kettle et al., 2014; Belfer et al., 2017; Lesperance, 2017; associated with climate change may mislead policymakers and
Makondo and Thomas, 2018). the aquaculture producers in taking necessary precautions.
Another growing area that may be considered for adaptation The consequences of maladaptation include increased future
is building adaptive capacity in aquaculture, especially for small- vulnerability and/or exposure of the target community, region,
scale producers through insurance schemes. Most climate change or sector to climate change effects (IPCC, 2014). To address
predictions indicate that small-scale producers will be the most biases of climate models, Palmer and Stevens (2019) note that
affected due to poor adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2014; Bueno there is a need to reduce the dependence of these models
and Soto, 2017; Barange et al., 2018). Hence, an insurance on subgrid parameterizations as much as possible and if not,
scheme could help them build resilience. Generally, insurance then report their uncertainty. The authors further suggest that
for aquaculture producers globally is still relatively new despite future models should be sustainable and cutting across nations,
gaining considerable attention (Pongthanapanich et al., 2016). embracing the high-performance application of computing and
In Vietnam, a pilot project conducted between 2011 and 2013 technology. Another challenge to successful adaptation is the
showed that farmers had a very poor understanding of the capacity of producers in terms of preparedness. For example,
scheme which led to poor results (Pongthanapanich et al., 2016), some regions of the world, such as those in western countries,
suggesting that awareness among other measures may lead to are more equipped in terms of governance, incomes, technology,
better results. Insurance schemes may especially be useful for human capital, and social networks than those in sub-Saharan
producers with poor adaptive capacity for building resilience African countries (Zolnikov, 2019). Besides, several projections

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Maulu et al. Aquaculture Sustainability Under Climate Change

show that aquaculture producers in developing countries will for future consideration. For example, the review is limited
be the most affected and this is due to poor adaptive capacity to production and input supply stages of the aquaculture
(Barange et al., 2018; Zolnikov, 2019). Therefore, IPCC (2018) value chain and does not address the other important stages,
strongly recommends international cooperation that promotes such as trade, processing, and consumption of the products.
enhanced access to finances and technology and enhanced local In addition, within the production stage of the value chain
capacities for developing nations and most vulnerable regions for discussed, it was not clear how various species of economic
effective action. Finally, it is now becoming clearer that the entire importance at different life stages will respond to a changing
aquaculture value chain is vulnerable to climate change effects. climate. Information on this would be useful for adaptation
However, much of the currently available literature focuses more strategies that may require the producers to shift to species that
on the production system leaving out other stages, such as trade may be more resilient to the change in the climate. Also, there
and marketing of aquatic products. Such a narrow focus of were few practical examples of the implication climate change
scientific studies limits our understanding of the extent to which is expected to have on aquaculture production sustainability,
the aquaculture sector will be affected and hence, adaptation and in most cases, studies were biased toward environmental
options. Therefore, future studies and models should have a dimensions of sustainability while neglecting the social and
broader focus and encompass all stages of the aquaculture economic aspects. As the aquaculture sector continues to grow
value chain. while climate change becomes clearer, there is a need to embrace
a holistic approach in projecting climate change effects on
CONCLUSION AND PROSPECTS aquaculture and in addressing these impacts. Consequently,
mitigation and adaptation strategies would be more effective.
This review has highlighted the potential effects of climate However, this will require developments in research, especially
change on aquaculture production and implications on the in more vulnerable regions due to poor adaptive capacity.
sector’s sustainability. Despite being considered the only solution Therefore, poorer economies could benefit more from
to meeting the continued rise in demand for aquatic products international cooperation.
globally, the aquaculture sector is increasingly being threatened
by human-driven climate change effects that are both a present AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
and future reality. These effects on aquaculture are expected to
be both positive and negative, although the negative outweighs SM generated the idea, defined the objectives and coordinated the
the positive ones. Besides, although climate change is a global writing of the manuscript. OJH assisted in defining the objectives
food production risk, the associated risks on aquaculture and participated in writing the manuscript. LHH, CM, and CGM
are expected to differ across geographical or climatic zones, critically reviewed and made substantial contributions to the
national economy, water environment, production systems, the manuscript. THM, BPM, and KJP participated in writing the
scale of production, and cultured species of the aquaculture manuscript. JDM revised the conception of the manuscript. All
producers. To build resilience and sustain production in a the authors read and approved the final manuscript.
changing climate, the aquaculture producers must adapt to
the available options in the short-term while mitigating the ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
effects by making necessary adjustments in their production
practices in the long-term. This review has addressed important The authors would like to sincerely thank all the institutions
aspects of climate change and aquaculture production; however, represented by the authors for working together toward a
several limitations were identified that presents important areas common goal.

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(SABs). J. Appl. Phycol. 29, 2363–2373. doi: 10.1007/s10811-016-1022-1 absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a
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Norway: recent industrial developments and future perspectives. Aquac. Int.
25, 1373–1390. doi: 10.1007/s10499-017-0120-7 Copyright © 2021 Maulu, Hasimuna, Haambiya, Monde, Musuka, Makorwa,
Stewart, H. A., Aboagye, D. I., Ramee, S. W., and Allen, P. J. (2019). Effects of acute Munganga, Phiri and Nsekanabo. This is an open-access article distributed under the
thermal stress on acid-base regulation, haematology, ion-osmoregulation and terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution
aerobic metabolism in Channel Catfish (Ictalurus punctatus). Aquac. Res. 50, or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and
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