Option Contract Bid-Ask: $X - $Y

**Dan’s “I’m totally new to Unusual Whales Starter Criteria” (because I am): Tech X or Consumer X
calls between 10AM-12PM eastern prefer Monday or Friday, bull or repeat bull, calendar, shopping
bag, genies or stars extra credit, expiry within 6-8 weeks, ask is maximum 10% of my portfolio

● DD on X/Y/ZZZZ for far OTM $XYZ call monthly

● Alert link
● Barchart for historical IV, delta, gamma (extra credit):
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/XYZ/volatility-greeks
● Check the wind: what does the $SPY look like? $QQQ? If it’s a China play, $FXI? etc.
● Final action: bought X contracts, sell target Y, stop loss Z

Strategy Summary courtesy of @astronautic, a million thanks!

● very bullish: long call, shares
● bullish: call debit spreads (aka bull call spread), jade lizard
● neutral-bullish: put credit spreads (aka bull put spread), pmcc (calendar spread with calls), short
put
● neutral: short iron condor, short straddle, short iron butterfly, short strangle
● neutral-bearish: call credit spread (bear call spread), pmcp (calendar spread with puts), short call
● bearish: put debit spread (bear put spread)
● very bearish: long put, shorting shares
● no category: ratio spreads (short more calls than puts to be bearish, or short more puts than calls
to be bullish), lottoflies (iron butterflies on high IV stock, you're guessing the price it'll end at for
10x risk:reward), long iron condors/straddles/strangles since they're predicting big movement but
not in a bullish or bearish sentiment

Alert Checklist
(delete this line to save space, but this section sourced from: https://unusualwhales.com/analytics/win …
go through these before we even look at the flow)

● Is it a call? On average, calls have the best average max return

● What day did the alert occur? Mondays have the most winners, followed by Tuesday, then
Wednesday / Thursday / Friday all seem about equal in third place
● What time did the alert occur? 10AM to 12PM eastern has the most winners, 2PM to 3PM
eastern has the fewest winners
● When is the expiry? 1 week or less has slightly fewer winners than >1 week but <1 month for
calls and puts, longer contracts take longer, on average, to reach higher returns (duh)
● What sector is the company in? Tech services, electronic tech, consumer services, and health
have the most winners
● Emojis: (1) Calendar (2) Ask side (3) Bearish directional (4) Hedge (5) Largest whale was some
time ago but volume movement is happening (delete all the notes below before finishing
diligence) emoji details here
○ First time (star) and SPAC (genie) calls have historically been very profitable
○ Calendar: makes sense since on average most winners are >1 week but <1 month out
from expiry
○ Ask side: makes sense since these whales would rather have the contract than their
premium
○ Bearish directional: bearish whales generally don’t exceed 20-30% returns then don’t
go higher, used as insurance
○ Hedge: makes sense as short-term trend protection inside long-term trend
○ Largest whale was some time ago (in bed emoji): makes sense as we believe that
options move markets, this is indicative of more signals accumulating
 ○ Bull, Bear, Calendar, In Bed emoji, Shopping Bags, and Hedge emojis are roughly at
least an order of magnitude more frequent than others, so take notice when you see
others

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Is This Whale Part of a Bigger Strategy?

Use this technique to find the whale: https://twitter.com/snorlax_support/status/1390479651655585794

First things first, was this part of a larger strategy (spread, straddle, strangle, etc.)? Don’t be misled!

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Overall Review

**(Delete this when complete but here’s a reminder) Review how Snorlax builds the charts:
https://twitter.com/snorlax_support/status/1393004121356132356, we can see how the left 4 charts are
built but the 5th and final one is the secret sauce -- all we know is that it weighs bid/ask pricing heavily!

https://unusualwhales.com/flow <- this is the total ocean flow where we see all options, filter this

● Flow for whale expiry:

● Flow for the next 3-4 expiries:
● Flow for all dates forward:
● Any obvious clusters?
● Flow for ask-side only (looking for strong sentiment but take with a grain of salt, can be a
self-fulfilling prophecy since askers obviously think XYZ is going to happen):

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Ticker-specific and Expiry-specific Review

Go look at all the expiries (and show charts): https://unusualwhales.com/flow/tickers/xyz

(Sort by bearish flows to look at the harshest expiries)

Alert Page Checklist

● Total Avg Return for Similar Alerts = x%

● Total Median Return for Similar Alerts = x%
● Total Percent of Winners (>= 25% return) for Similar = x%
● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? XYZ
○ Delete these bullets before finishing diligence but keep these important details in mind!
○ Calls that reach +10% returns have:
■ 77.2% chance of reaching a 30% return
■ 64% chance of reaching a 50% return
■ 42.8% chance of reaching a 100% return
■ … if it’s already up 10%, it’s pretty likely to reach 50%
○ Puts that reach +10% returns have:
■ 68.5% chance of reaching a 30% return
■ 50.2% chance of reaching a 50% return
■ 27.9% chance of reaching a 100% return
■ … if it’s already up 10%, it is pretty likely to reach 30%, so harvest profit!
● What’s the volume/open interest ratio? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)
○ Directly from /analytics/win:
■ “For calls you are looking for volatility of 69-83% for winners, looking for
high volume (+400), lower OI (18-37), etc.”
○ Directly from /analytics:
■ “Generally a volume/oi ratio greater than 4 but less than 10 in the last/first
30 minutes of the trading day seems to be most profitable”
● What’s the implied volatility IV? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)
○ Directly from /analytics/win:
■ “Monthly Call best IV is (81.8% to 124%], Monthly Put best IV is (42.3% to
59.2%]”
 ■ “Weekly Call and Put best IV is (59.2% to 81.8%]”
○ Directly from /analytics:
■ “look for lower delta and IV under 100%” (be careful with >100% IVs)

Volume/Open Interest (Vol/OI) Implied Volatility (IV)

Range CALL Ranks PUT Ranks Range CALL Ranks PUT Ranks

3 to 3.71 OK OK 0% to 27.44% Best OK

3.71 to 4.36 Best Good 27.44% to 35.36% Good OK

4.36 to 5.36 Best Good 35.36% to 41.27% OK OK

5.36 to 6.92 OK Good 41.27% to 47.84% OK Good

6.92 to 9.48 Best Best 47.84% to 56.03% Best OK

9.48 to 14.053 Good OK 56.03% to 67.06% Best Good

14.053 to 22.921 Best Good 67.06% to 80.37% Good OK

22.921 to 46.795 Best Good 80.37% to 98.86% Best Best

46.795 to 133.58 OK Good 98.86% to 133% Good OK

133.58 to 34000 Best Good 133% to 1055% Good OK

** table notes: Vol/OI for calls has visibly differentiated medians but the put medians are very similar
** table notes: IV for calls has visibly differentiated medians but again the put medians are very similar

● What’s the delta? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)

○ Directly from /analytics/win:
■ “Monthly Call and Put best delta is (-0.0834 to 0.178]”
■ “Weekly Call best delta is (0.178 to 0.321], Weekly Put best delta is (-0.0834
to 0.178]”
● What’s the gamma? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)
● Extra Credit barchart.com historicals: go to the barchart.com link and examine how the IV,
Delta, and Gamma have changed over time…

Delta Gamma

CALL Range C Rank PUT Range P Rank Range CALL Rank PUT Rank

0 to 0.09 Good -0.99 to -0.37 OK 0 to 0.0073 OK OK

0.0073 to 0.012 OK OK

0.09 to 0.19 Best -0.37 to -0.26 OK 0.012 to 0.019 OK OK

0.019 to 0.026 Good OK

0.19 to 0.26 Good -0.26 to -0.18 Good 0.026 to 0.037 OK Good

 0.037 to 0.051 OK OK

0.26 to 0.35 Good -0.18 to -0.1 Best 0.051 to 0.068 Good Good

0.068 to 0.091 Good OK

0.35 to 0.53 OK -0.1 to 0 Good 0.091 to 0.14 OK Good

0.53 to 1 OK 0.14 to 0.87 Best Best

** table notes: medians for Call deltas are clustered closely together but are further apart for Put deltas
** table notes: median for Call gamma 0.14 to 0.87 is far and away highest, Put gammas are clustered

Company Alerts Checklist

https://unusualwhales.com/company/XYZ/alerts
● Charting tab: recent calls and puts, are whales forcing a direction? Think back to that $DKNG
call leading up to Arizona OKing sports gambling...
● Sentiment tab: bullish vs bearish, OTM call skew vs OTM put skew

(screenshot of ratios)

Final Sanity Check (delete this but make sure you think about it before you FOMO in)

(Does this make sense? Remember, you’re not going to outsmart the market… that $RIOT put fizzled
even though $BTC prices got hammered -- go with the flow, not your interpretation of what SHOULD
happen! When that $RIOT whale call surfaced it was time to GTFO of those puts and cover downside.)

Box and Whisker Refresher (delete this before finishing diligence):

These are all over the https://unusualwhales.com/analytics page, so here’s a quick review.
Week of Mon 2021-07-19

DD on Thursday 7/22/2021 for $NFLX expiry 2021-07-23

● 1D inside bar, https://unusualwhales.com/flow/ticker_flows/NFLX
● SpotGamma (stale as of Thu 7/22/2021 but a good starting point)
○ Put dominant (but light red)
○ Key Gamma Strike $500
○ KGS $500 all week except Wed 7/21 (up to $535) but back down to $500 today
○ 36% of gamma expires tomorrow (updated Fri 7/23/2021 before market open)
● UW Flow
○ Thu 7/22: Jul/Aug expiries >$25K premium only 45% bull
○ Thu 7/22: 7/23 expiry >$10K flow 49% bull
○ Historical for all 2021 expiries >$25K: 45% bull
● Hypothesis: light red shading from SG EquityHub is put selling dominance due to earnings and
vol traders taking advantage of IV run-up
○ Need to confirm after the SG update, UW Flow shows big call premium but bearish
overall (call selling), would not be surprised if tint changes to green
○ However, I expect that is SOLD call volume, so SG green “bought calls” would be an
incorrect assumption and closed contracts would allow dealers to sell their longs
○ Fri 7/23 update: $NFLX SpotGamma chart got more red, very interesting -- perhaps my
UW view was too limited because it only examined flow on Thu 7/23?
○ Fri 7/23 update: more bearish premium on $NFLX across all strikes and expiries
● Hypothesis: traders buying back their puts will allow dealers to sell off delta hedged shares,
bringing the price down to key gamma strike of $500
● Strategy: LOTTO BABYbuy to open $NFLX 2021-07-30 $500P current ask is $0.28
$CERE 2021-08-20 P $17.50 bid-ask $0.95 to $1.35
● DD on Thu 7/1/2021 for bullish OTM “put” (sold puts) for $CERE
● https://unusualwhales.com/alerts/30a769f8-f6dd-4aea-adda-174851e6611b?utm_source=unusual
_whales&utm_medium=discord&utm_campaign=premium_alerts
● Barchart for historical IV, delta, gamma (extra credit):
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/CERE/volatility-greeks
● $SPY is up, $QQQ is up, low volatility, blah blah, biggest catalyst was a massive gap on $CERE
6/29/2021 when they announced an additional public offering
● Final action: bought X contracts, sell target Y, stop loss Z

Alert Checklist
● Star emoji babaaay!
● Monthly out to August, $CERE is thinly traded and only has monthlies

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Is This Whale Part of a Bigger Strategy?

● No, only see one bearish credit spread (sold closer call to expiry)

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Overall Review

All stats are for 2021-08-20 expiration with a $1K premium filter and NO ask-side limit unless otherwise
noted

● Thu 7/1: 94% bullish (most sold puts though)

● Wed 6/30: 58% bullish
● … no other options trades before then
● DARK FLOW: some obvious profit taking the morning of the gap up (6/29) but buying afterwards
at even higher prices, $CERE closed at $26.85 today

Alert Page Checklist

● What’s the volume/open interest ratio? 469/113 = 4.15, median best

● What’s the implied volatility IV? 130.16%, good but getting extreme
● What’s the delta? Sold puts N/A
● What’s the gamma? 0.0174 OK

Final Sanity Check (delete this but make sure you think about it before you FOMO in)
Technical: price trading below the “gamma flip” line per Vigtec, does this mean dealers / MMs will “pile
on” rather than reducing volatility?
Technical: Vigtec bullish on momentum, volume flow and money flow but power blocks haven’t come
along, were down until zeroing out today
Suspicious: Director Gabrielle Sulzberger, partner at Two Sigma Impact and on the Board for $CERE (as
well as others like $LLY), bought 21K shares on Thursday 6/17 at $13.06 per share, not even two weeks
before prices doubled :/
$MOS 2021-07-16 C $35.00 bid-ask $0.58 to $0.60 (now ask $0.68)
● DD on Thu 6/17/2021 for far OTM call on Mosaic Company a phosphate miner for fertilizer
● https://unusualwhales.com/alerts/09372477-0bb0-4251-b47b-7547ece3ab8c
● Barchart for historical IV, delta, gamma (extra credit):
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/MOS/volatility-greeks
● Check the wind: $FXZ (materials) and $VEGI (agriculture producers) both trending down
● Final action: BTO 20 contracts for 7/16 $35C order at $0.31 but current bid is $0.33, will
wait for this to fill, stop loss at $0.18 (only want to risk about $300), sell 10 at $0.42 (about
30%), sell 5 at $0.48 (about 50%), let last 5 run ideally to 100%
● Result: hit -50% stop loss morning of Thursday 6/24/2021
● Lessons learned:

Alert Checklist
● Bullish, Ask side, Wed at 1115 eastern (so not the best day), expiring one month out on Jul-16

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Overall Review

● Flow for whale expiry: 63.2% bullish, ask only is 89.5% bullish
● Flow for the next 3-4 expiries: 62.2% bullish (screenshot), ask only is 88.4% bullish
● Clusters are interesting, see screenshot
Alert Page Checklist
● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? Up but materials are getting
hammered right now, big red candles, so this contract is now down 50%
● What’s the volume/open interest ratio? 3.79 best
● What’s the implied volatility IV? 39.86% OK
 ● What’s the delta? 0.2732 good
● What’s the gamma? 0.0894 good

Company Alerts Checklist

https://unusualwhales.com/company/MOS/alerts
● Charting tab: recent calls and puts, not very clear
● Sentiment tab: bullish 5 to 3 but oof on some upcoming expiries
$SABR 2021-07-02 C $15.00 bid-ask $0.19 to $0.22
● DD on 6/16/2021 for OTM call on Sabre Corp (airline tech spun off from AAL)
● https://unusualwhales.com/alerts/83943e5e-20d0-4d5f-b69e-1796511ee44c
● Barchart for historical IV, delta, gamma (extra credit):
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/XYZ/volatility-greeks
● $JETS consistently trending down throughout June 2021
● Final action: avoid, flow is not overly positive, I like this company as a long-term player for
airline growth and re-opening but the short-term signals are mixed

Alert Checklist
● Is it a call? Yes, but flow is bearish and so is the $JETS ETF
● What day did the alert occur? Tuesday at 1431 eastern which is the gully for least winners
● When is the expiry? >1 week but <4 weeks
● What sector is the company in? Tech services

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Overall Review

● Flow for the next 3-4 expiries: about 50/50, 6/15 had very few transactions but 6/14 was very
busy for expiry 2021-07-16 with bought calls for the $15 strike

Real head-scratcher, might be seeing the same large actor buying calls and selling them back same day...
$VXRT 2021-06-18 C $9.50 bid-ask $0.60 to $0.66
● DD on Monday 6/14/2021 for OTM call on $VXRT Vaxart weekly QW
● https://unusualwhales.com/alerts/19035f17-caea-42ef-a84f-6fb8b41ce796
● Wind: $SPY up, $QQQ up, $XPH up (sold $PILL shares last week nice)
● Barchart for historical IV, delta, gamma (extra credit):
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/VXRT/volatility-greeks
●
● Final action: bought X contracts, sell target Y, stop loss Z

Strategy Summary courtesy of @astronautic, a million thanks!

● very bullish: long call, shares
● bullish: call debit spreads (aka bull call spread), jade lizard
● neutral-bullish: put credit spreads (aka bull put spread), pmcc (calendar spread with calls), short
put
● neutral: short iron condor, short straddle, short iron butterfly, short strangle
● neutral-bearish: call credit spread (bear call spread), pmcp (calendar spread with puts), short call
● bearish: put debit spread (bear put spread)
● very bearish: long put, shorting shares
● no category: ratio spreads (short more calls than puts to be bearish, or short more puts than calls
to be bullish), lottoflies (iron butterflies on high IV stock, you're guessing the price it'll end at for
10x risk:reward), long iron condors/straddles/strangles since they're predicting big movement but
not in a bullish or bearish sentiment

Alert Checklist
(delete this line to save space, but this section sourced from: https://unusualwhales.com/analytics/win …
go through these before we even look at the flow)

● Is it a call? On average, calls have the best average max return

● What day did the alert occur? Mondays have the most winners, followed by Tuesday, then
Wednesday / Thursday / Friday all seem about equal in third place
● What time did the alert occur? 10AM to 12PM eastern has the most winners, 2PM to 3PM
eastern has the fewest winners
● When is the expiry? 1 week or less has slightly fewer winners than >1 week but <1 month for
calls and puts, longer contracts take longer, on average, to reach higher returns (duh)
● What sector is the company in? Tech services, electronic tech, consumer services, and health
have the most winners
● Emojis: (1) Calendar (2) Ask side (3) Bearish directional (4) Hedge (5) Largest whale was some
time ago but volume movement is happening (delete all the notes below before finishing
diligence) emoji details here
○ First time (star) and SPAC (genie) calls have historically been very profitable
○ Calendar: makes sense since on average most winners are >1 week but <1 month out
from expiry
○ Ask side: makes sense since these whales would rather have the contract than their
premium
○ Bearish directional: bearish whales generally don’t exceed 20-30% returns then don’t
go higher, used as insurance
○ Hedge: makes sense as short-term trend protection inside long-term trend
○ Largest whale was some time ago (in bed emoji): makes sense as we believe that
options move markets, this is indicative of more signals accumulating
 ○ Bull, Bear, Calendar, In Bed emoji, Shopping Bags, and Hedge emojis are roughly at
least an order of magnitude more frequent than others, so take notice when you see
others

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Is This Whale Part of a Bigger Strategy?

Use this technique to find the whale: https://twitter.com/snorlax_support/status/1390479651655585794

First things first, was this part of a larger strategy (spread, straddle, strangle, etc.)? Don’t be misled!

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Overall Review

**(Delete this when complete but here’s a reminder) Review how Snorlax builds the charts:
https://twitter.com/snorlax_support/status/1393004121356132356, we can see how the left 4 charts are
built but the 5th and final one is the secret sauce -- all we know is that it weighs bid/ask pricing heavily!

https://unusualwhales.com/flow <- this is the total ocean flow where we see all options, filter this

● Flow for whale expiry:

● Flow for the next 3-4 expiries:
● Flow for all dates forward:
● Any obvious clusters?
● Flow for ask-side only (looking for strong sentiment but take with a grain of salt, can be a
self-fulfilling prophecy since askers obviously think XYZ is going to happen):

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Ticker-specific and Expiry-specific Review

Go look at all the expiries (and show charts): https://unusualwhales.com/flow/tickers/xyz

(Sort by bearish flows to look at the harshest expiries)

Alert Page Checklist

● Total Avg Return for Similar Alerts = x%

● Total Median Return for Similar Alerts = x%
● Total Percent of Winners (>= 25% return) for Similar = x%
● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? XYZ
○ Delete these bullets before finishing diligence but keep these important details in mind!
○ Calls that reach +10% returns have:
■ 77.2% chance of reaching a 30% return
■ 64% chance of reaching a 50% return
■ 42.8% chance of reaching a 100% return
■ … if it’s already up 10%, it’s pretty likely to reach 50%
○ Puts that reach +10% returns have:
■ 68.5% chance of reaching a 30% return
■ 50.2% chance of reaching a 50% return
■ 27.9% chance of reaching a 100% return
■ … if it’s already up 10%, it is pretty likely to reach 30%, so harvest profit!
● What’s the volume/open interest ratio? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)
○ Directly from /analytics/win:
■ “For calls you are looking for volatility of 69-83% for winners, looking for
high volume (+400), lower OI (18-37), etc.”
○ Directly from /analytics:
■ “Generally a volume/oi ratio greater than 4 but less than 10 in the last/first
30 minutes of the trading day seems to be most profitable”
● What’s the implied volatility IV? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)
○ Directly from /analytics/win:
■ “Monthly Call best IV is (81.8% to 124%], Monthly Put best IV is (42.3% to
59.2%]”
 ■ “Weekly Call and Put best IV is (59.2% to 81.8%]”
○ Directly from /analytics:
■ “look for lower delta and IV under 100%” (be careful with >100% IVs)

Volume/Open Interest (Vol/OI) Implied Volatility (IV)

Range CALL Ranks PUT Ranks Range CALL Ranks PUT Ranks

3 to 3.71 OK OK 0% to 27.44% Best OK

3.71 to 4.36 Best Good 27.44% to 35.36% Good OK

4.36 to 5.36 Best Good 35.36% to 41.27% OK OK

5.36 to 6.92 OK Good 41.27% to 47.84% OK Good

6.92 to 9.48 Best Best 47.84% to 56.03% Best OK

9.48 to 14.053 Good OK 56.03% to 67.06% Best Good

14.053 to 22.921 Best Good 67.06% to 80.37% Good OK

22.921 to 46.795 Best Good 80.37% to 98.86% Best Best

46.795 to 133.58 OK Good 98.86% to 133% Good OK

133.58 to 34000 Best Good 133% to 1055% Good OK

** table notes: Vol/OI for calls has visibly differentiated medians but the put medians are very similar
** table notes: IV for calls has visibly differentiated medians but again the put medians are very similar

● What’s the delta? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)

○ Directly from /analytics/win:
■ “Monthly Call and Put best delta is (-0.0834 to 0.178]”
■ “Weekly Call best delta is (0.178 to 0.321], Weekly Put best delta is (-0.0834
to 0.178]”
● What’s the gamma? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)
● Extra Credit barchart.com historicals: go to the barchart.com link and examine how the IV,
Delta, and Gamma have changed over time…

Delta Gamma

CALL Range C Rank PUT Range P Rank Range CALL Rank PUT Rank

0 to 0.09 Good -0.99 to -0.37 OK 0 to 0.0073 OK OK

0.0073 to 0.012 OK OK

0.09 to 0.19 Best -0.37 to -0.26 OK 0.012 to 0.019 OK OK

0.019 to 0.026 Good OK

0.19 to 0.26 Good -0.26 to -0.18 Good 0.026 to 0.037 OK Good

 0.037 to 0.051 OK OK

0.26 to 0.35 Good -0.18 to -0.1 Best 0.051 to 0.068 Good Good

0.068 to 0.091 Good OK

0.35 to 0.53 OK -0.1 to 0 Good 0.091 to 0.14 OK Good

0.53 to 1 OK 0.14 to 0.87 Best Best

** table notes: medians for Call deltas are clustered closely together but are further apart for Put deltas
** table notes: median for Call gamma 0.14 to 0.87 is far and away highest, Put gammas are clustered

Company Alerts Checklist

https://unusualwhales.com/company/XYZ/alerts
● Charting tab: recent calls and puts, are whales forcing a direction? Think back to that $DKNG
call leading up to Arizona OKing sports gambling...
● Sentiment tab: bullish vs bearish, OTM call skew vs OTM put skew

(screenshot of ratios)

Final Sanity Check (delete this but make sure you think about it before you FOMO in)

(Does this make sense? Remember, you’re not going to outsmart the market… that $RIOT put fizzled
even though $BTC prices got hammered -- go with the flow, not your interpretation of what SHOULD
happen! When that $RIOT whale call surfaced it was time to GTFO of those puts and cover downside.)

Box and Whisker Refresher (delete this before finishing diligence):

These are all over the https://unusualwhales.com/analytics page, so here’s a quick review.
$SIRI 2021-06-18 C $8.50
● DD on Wed 6/9/2021 for SIRI sirius XM OTM call for QW 6/18/2021
● https://unusualwhales.com/alerts/6a8c2e0b-0a05-4b88-a0db-0a15e99718c7
● Barchart for historical IV, delta, gamma (extra credit):
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/SIRI/volatility-greeks
● Check the wind: big meme day, $SPY and $QQQ up
● Final action: bought X contracts, sell target Y, stop loss Z

Alert Checklist
● What day did the alert occur? EOD Tue (1557 eastern) -- whales in afternoon major bulls
● What sector is the company in? Consumer services
● Emojis: bullish, ask side, repeated bull flag -- nice

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Overall Review

● Flow for whale expiry: $10K premium 96.2% bullish started 1040AM til 1202PM eastern
● Flow for the next 3-4 expiries: $10K premium 76% bullish for Jun-Aug
● Flow for all dates forward: $10K premium 75.4% bullish
● Any obvious clusters? A few vertical spreads but for the most part this is bought calls
● Flow for ask-side only (looking for strong sentiment but take with a grain of salt, can be a
self-fulfilling prophecy since askers obviously think XYZ is going to happen): no need when the
non-ask side flow is already very bullish

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Ticker-specific and Expiry-specific Review

Go look at all the expiries (and show charts): https://unusualwhales.com/flow/tickers/siri

Alert Page Checklist

● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? Flat
● What’s the volume/open interest ratio? 324.9 best (but remember that bucket is super wide)
● What’s the implied volatility IV? 112.68% good
● What’s the delta? 0.1851 best
● What’s the gamma? 0.2023 best
● Extra Credit barchart.com historicals: full yeet yesterday (Tue 6/8/2021) was undefined before
then
Company Alerts Checklist
https://unusualwhales.com/company/SIRI/alerts
● Charting tab: all alerts in the last couple weeks are calls and are up double digits
● Sentiment tab: 4/4 bullish, primarily calls, OTM skew high on calls
Final Sanity Check (delete this but make sure you think about it before you FOMO in)
Flow is very bullish and long on $SIRI, does not appear to be event-driven (earnings and dividend were
end of April and early May) -- I don’t know why Sirius is ripping, but it is
$FSR 2021-06-11 C $20.00 Bid-Ask $0.24 to $0.25
● DD on Monday 6/7/2021 for far OTM $FSR electric vehicle play tight weekly
● https://unusualwhales.com/alerts/d447592a-fcc8-42fe-993d-2684ebe933ee
● Barchart for historical IV, delta, gamma (extra credit):
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/FSR/volatility-greeks
● Check the wind: $BATT and $CARZ looking green, similar EV plays like $WKHS and $SOLO also
green candles today
● Final action: bought X contracts, sell target Y, stop loss Z

Alert Checklist
(delete this line to save space, but this section sourced from: https://unusualwhales.com/analytics/win …
go through these before we even look at the flow)

● What time did the alert occur? A little bit early at 0913 but close to 10-12
● When is the expiry? Inside of 1 week
● What sector is the company in? EV
● Emojis: Not my favorites, intraweek and bid side but good practice anyway

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Overall Review

$4999 premium criteria for all of these unless otherwise noted
● Flow for whale expiry: $6999 premium filter, similar to all dates with a bearish morning but more
bullish afternoon, 44% bullish for the full day but after 10AM the 6/11/2021 expiry was more
bullish at 68.4%
● Flow for the next 3-4 expiries: $6999 premium filter, bearish in the morning targeting 6/18, 6/25,
and July and August, after 10AM very bearish for all of June through August 42.7% (bull score)
lots of sold calls and puts in the near future
● Flow for all dates forward: early morning was bearish but by afternoon switched to bullish 57.1%
● Any obvious clusters? In the morning the flow was bearish with lots of sold calls but by EOD of
the flow had turned bullish
● Flow for ask-side only (looking for strong sentiment but take with a grain of salt, can be a
self-fulfilling prophecy since askers obviously think XYZ is going to happen):

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Ticker-specific and Expiry-specific Review

Alert Page Checklist

● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? Up and down, earliest call
buyers did well but contract price has been down too
 ● What’s the volume/open interest ratio? 5.07 best
● What’s the implied volatility IV? 171.48% good but kind of high
● What’s the delta? 0.1641 best
● What’s the gamma? 0.0809 good

Company Alerts Checklist

https://unusualwhales.com/company/FSR/alerts
● Charting tab: in the last week calls and puts have been very successful thanks to high IV, market
expects that $FSR will either keep growing or will take a nasty elevator down next week (or next
month)
● Sentiment tab: bearish, more puts than calls in recent history

Final Sanity Check (delete this but make sure you think about it before you FOMO in)
Lots of price increases in the EV space this week as many battery / EV / “green” companies saw
outstanding performance -- see $CARZ (thanks Ford!), see $BATT, similar players like $WKHS, $RIDE,
etc.
$HFC 2021-06-25 C $37.50 bid-ask $0.65 to $0.70
● DD on Monday 6/7/2021 for petroleum refiner HFC ~10% OTM call from close to EOD on Friday
● https://unusualwhales.com/alerts/f632d762-9d8b-4c2c-9316-7b28bf6a8732
● Barchart for historical IV, delta, gamma (extra credit):
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/HFC/volatility-greeks
● Check the wind: $XLE is trending up, $SPY was up last week but QW approaches so be careful
● Final action: bought X contracts, sell target Y, stop loss Z

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Overall Review

● Confirmed NOT a part of a spread strategy using the $4999 premium threshold, just all calls
● Flow for just Friday 6/7 alone at $4999 premium was 90.6% bullish, big reversal move
● Flow BEFORE Friday 6/7 at $4999 premium was split, 54.4% bullish
● Premium Filter $4999 for all of these!
○ Flow for whale expiry: 96.8% bullish
○ Flow for the next 3-4 expiries: (June-Aug) 80.5% bullish
○ Flow for all dates forward: 69.3% bullish
● Any obvious clusters? The biggest alerts all came in at the dangerous 1300 eastern hour on
Friday but they are all supremely bullish

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Ticker-specific and Expiry-specific Review

● Charts are bullish, contract I’m eyeing is bullish too
Alert Page Checklist

● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? Up! But a modest increase to
$0.80 ask
● What’s the volume/open interest ratio? 1675 / 1 so a wild 1675, this one is off the chart
● What’s the implied volatility IV? 42.73, just OK
● What’s the delta? 0.3061, good
● What’s the gamma? 0.0964, just OK
● Extra Credit barchart.com historicals: not enough history for anything really useful :(

Company Alerts Checklist

● Charting tab: first time alert for $HFC but very bullish and directional
● Sentiment tab: 1 for the bulls :) haha
Final Sanity Check (delete this but make sure you think about it before you FOMO in)
● The wind is with energy, $XLE moving up
● … but all this action seems to be the result of one big actor. Hmm… time to ask for some
collective wisdom
$CIEN 2021-07-16 C $65.00 bid-ask $0.64 to $0.69
● DD on Fri 6/4/2021 for OTM call on $CIEN telecom hardware manufacturer
● https://unusualwhales.com/alerts/c93d8b3d-f0c7-4e94-bf3b-9c35f9f863a0
● $SPY up, $QQQ up, $XSD up, very green day for tech manufacturers
● Barchart for historical IV, delta, gamma (extra credit):
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/CIEN/volatility-greeks
● Final action: watch this one closely, could be a FOMO chase up since the price action is so
high yesterday and today after the beat their earnings expectation, ask price is locked to $0.65
right now but the bid keeps going down, could be a good opportunity to get in for a better price
than the whale then ride on up

Alert Checklist
● About 6 weeks out (so not the sweet spot >1 week but <4 weeks), one of the (on average) worst
time periods too during the day but important enough that the app hollered at me, LOVE that
juicy star emoji too :)

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Is This Whale Part of a Bigger Strategy?

● At least one straddle at $55.50 for the 6/11/2021 expiry but otherwise the >$4999 premium flow is
simply showing lots bought calls and sold calls #theta-gang

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Overall Review

● Flow for whale expiry: >$7999 premium 66.9% bullish niiiice
● Flow for the next 3-4 expiries: (Jun-Aug) >$7999 premium 53.5% bullish
● Flow for all dates forward: >$7999 premium 56.2% bullish
● Any obvious clusters? Some major full-yeet intraday buys since price is on a rip today

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Ticker-specific and Expiry-specific Review

● https://unusualwhales.com/flow/tickers/cien 58.6% bullish overall, target date is very green

Alert Page Checklist

 ● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? Flat (but only a few minutes)
● What’s the volume/open interest ratio? 5.55 OK
● What’s the implied volatility IV? 27.35% Best
● What’s the delta? 0.2171 Good
● What’s the gamma? 0.0526 Good
● Extra Credit barchart.com historicals: IV is trending down from spikes last week, premium is
through the roof over the last couple days

Company Alerts Checklist

https://unusualwhales.com/company/CIEN/alerts
● SI at 14% = 146,270 / 1,075,200
● Charting tab: first-timer so no history
● Sentiment tab: bullish but (duh) there’s only one, that said the call volume is > the put volume
across all visible strikes and expiries

Final Sanity Check (delete this but make sure you think about it before you FOMO in)
Electronic tech has been up and down this week after big AMD announcements, want to keep watching
this one closely because even though the volume has skyrocketed and the flow is bullish the contract
price has actually gone DOWN (today)...
In-progress $CLOV 2021-07-16 C $11.00 Bid-Ask $0.85 to $0.95
● DD on Friday 6/4/2021 for OTM $CLOV (shorted health care) alert on Thursday 6/3/2021
● Alert link: https://unusualwhales.com/alerts/38d623b9-7f1a-425a-814c-f52b71570a47
● Barchart for historical IV, delta, gamma (extra credit):
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/CLOV/volatility-greeks
● $SPY and $XBI both down for the day, $XPH up though, bio / health / pharm always tricky
● Lots of call action in the morning when these contracts were up at $1.50+ but they drifted
down to the alert range and are now trading at $0.95 (which is the alert ask)
● Biggest whales are LEAPs so I filtered them out, almost no complex strategies
● Sentiment definitely changed from opening to lunch time on $CLOV
● Final action: bought X contracts, sell target Y, stop loss Z

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Overall Review

● Flow for whale expiry: >$20K premium 19.9% bullish (a lot of calls being sold)
● Flow for the next 3-4 expiries: >$20K premium for June-August 29.9% bullish (again selling calls)
● Flow for all dates forward: >$20K premium, no LEAP, 33.8% bullish (ouch)
● Any obvious clusters? 1,911 sell $11C contracts for 7/16/2021 (this expiry) all at 0833-0834 oof

Alert Page Checklist

● Total Avg Return for Similar Alerts = x%

● Total Median Return for Similar Alerts = x%
● Total Percent of Winners (>= 25% return) for Similar = x%
● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? XYZ
○ Delete these bullets before finishing diligence but keep these important details in mind!
○ Calls that reach +10% returns have:
■ 77.2% chance of reaching a 30% return
■ 64% chance of reaching a 50% return
■ 42.8% chance of reaching a 100% return
■ … if it’s already up 10%, it’s pretty likely to reach 50%
○ Puts that reach +10% returns have:
■ 68.5% chance of reaching a 30% return
■ 50.2% chance of reaching a 50% return
 ■ 27.9% chance of reaching a 100% return
■ … if it’s already up 10%, it is pretty likely to reach 30%, so harvest profit!
● What’s the volume/open interest ratio? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)
○ Directly from /analytics/win:
■ “For calls you are looking for volatility of 69-83% for winners, looking for
high volume (+400), lower OI (18-37), etc.”
○ Directly from /analytics:
■ “Generally a volume/oi ratio greater than 4 but less than 10 in the last/first
30 minutes of the trading day seems to be most profitable”
● What’s the implied volatility IV? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)
○ Directly from /analytics/win:
■ “Monthly Call best IV is (81.8% to 124%], Monthly Put best IV is (42.3% to
59.2%]”
■ “Weekly Call and Put best IV is (59.2% to 81.8%]”
○ Directly from /analytics:
■ “look for lower delta and IV under 100%” (be careful with >100% IVs)

Volume/Open Interest (Vol/OI) Implied Volatility (IV)

Range CALL Ranks PUT Ranks Range CALL Ranks PUT Ranks

3 to 3.71 OK OK 0% to 27.44% Best OK

3.71 to 4.36 Best Good 27.44% to 35.36% Good OK

4.36 to 5.36 Best Good 35.36% to 41.27% OK OK

5.36 to 6.92 OK Good 41.27% to 47.84% OK Good

6.92 to 9.48 Best Best 47.84% to 56.03% Best OK

9.48 to 14.053 Good OK 56.03% to 67.06% Best Good

14.053 to 22.921 Best Good 67.06% to 80.37% Good OK

22.921 to 46.795 Best Good 80.37% to 98.86% Best Best

46.795 to 133.58 OK Good 98.86% to 133% Good OK

133.58 to 34000 Best Good 133% to 1055% Good OK

** table notes: Vol/OI for calls has visibly differentiated medians but the put medians are very similar
** table notes: IV for calls has visibly differentiated medians but again the put medians are very similar

● What’s the delta? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)

○ Directly from /analytics/win:
■ “Monthly Call and Put best delta is (-0.0834 to 0.178]”
■ “Weekly Call best delta is (0.178 to 0.321], Weekly Put best delta is (-0.0834
to 0.178]”
● What’s the gamma? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)
● Extra Credit barchart.com historicals: go to the barchart.com link and examine how the IV,
Delta, and Gamma have changed over time…

Delta Gamma
 CALL Range C Rank PUT Range P Rank Range CALL Rank PUT Rank

0 to 0.09 Good -0.99 to -0.37 OK 0 to 0.0073 OK OK

0.0073 to 0.012 OK OK

0.09 to 0.19 Best -0.37 to -0.26 OK 0.012 to 0.019 OK OK

0.019 to 0.026 Good OK

0.19 to 0.26 Good -0.26 to -0.18 Good 0.026 to 0.037 OK Good

0.037 to 0.051 OK OK

0.26 to 0.35 Good -0.18 to -0.1 Best 0.051 to 0.068 Good Good

0.068 to 0.091 Good OK

0.35 to 0.53 OK -0.1 to 0 Good 0.091 to 0.14 OK Good

0.53 to 1 OK 0.14 to 0.87 Best Best

** table notes: medians for Call deltas are clustered closely together but are further apart for Put deltas
** table notes: median for Call gamma 0.14 to 0.87 is far and away highest, Put gammas are clustered

Company Alerts Checklist

https://unusualwhales.com/company/XYZ/alerts
● Charting tab: recent calls and puts, are whales forcing a direction? Think back to that $DKNG
call leading up to Arizona OKing sports gambling...
● Sentiment tab: bullish vs bearish, OTM call skew vs OTM put skew

(screenshot of ratios)

Final Sanity Check (delete this but make sure you think about it before you FOMO in)

(Does this make sense? Remember, you’re not going to outsmart the market… that $RIOT put fizzled
even though $BTC prices got hammered -- go with the flow, not your interpretation of what SHOULD
happen! When that $RIOT whale call surfaced it was time to GTFO of those puts and cover downside.)

Box and Whisker Refresher (delete this before finishing diligence):

These are all over the https://unusualwhales.com/analytics page, so here’s a quick review.
$DDD 2021-06-18 C $39.00 Bid-Ask $0.40 to $0.55
● DD on Thu 6/3/2021 for far OTM call on $DDD an ARK-owned company
● https://unusualwhales.com/alerts/bbbec18f-fac2-4949-b349-82b347bec072
● Barchart for historical IV, delta, gamma (extra credit):
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/DDD/volatility-greeks
● Final action: additional DD needed on $DDD but ARK investment gives me confidence,
$SPY down and $QQQ down though no need to rush into this potential opportuntity

Alert Checklist
● Couple of red flags: (1) price has NOT gone up already, it’s down 20% since alert (2) it
arrived on a Thursday which is not the ideal Monday or Friday

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Is This Whale Part of a Bigger Strategy?

● Confirmed NOT part of a larger strategy, good ol’ fashioned yolo OTM call

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Overall Review

**Ask about those bullish calcs correct even in the face of changing expiries?**
● Flow for whale expiry: >$4999 premium 50.7% bullish
● Flow for the next 3-4 expiries: >$4999 premium, all expiries in June July August 50.7% bullish
● Flow for all dates forward: **I cut out everything in 2022** >$4999 premium 50.7% bullish
● Any obvious clusters? Some straddles at $30 and $35 for 6/18/2021

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Ticker-specific and Expiry-specific Review

https://unusualwhales.com/flow/tickers/ddd -- 52.3% bullish overall, this particular strike/expiry is 100%
green

Alert Page Checklist

● Total Avg Return for Similar Alerts = -9.09% (no historical)
● Total Median Return for Similar Alerts = N/A
● Total Percent of Winners (>= 25% return) for Similar = 0 (no historical)
● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? Down 10% since transaction
● What’s the volume/open interest ratio? 444/76 = 5.84, OK bucket
● What’s the implied volatility IV? 99.97%, good bucket
● What’s the delta? 0.1563, best bucket
● What’s the gamma? 0.0378, OK bucket
● Extra Credit barchart.com historicals: increasing since last week (5/24 through 5/28) but
previously was at or above the same level

Company Alerts Checklist

● Charting tab: call in the last two weeks have been absolutely printing triple digit returns
● Sentiment tab: bullish, OTM call skew 22.24 (still need to get a better understanding of this) but
most of that bullish activity seems like almost-LEAPs on 1/21/2022
● Short interest at 0.14 (14%), 812K out of 5.65M
$VIPS 2021-06-25 C $28.00 Bid-Ask $0.30 to $0.35
● Tue 6/2/2021 (post Memorial Day) OTM call for VIPS
● https://unusualwhales.com/alerts/778949e4-2bc2-42aa-99b5-8111c3662689
● Barchart for historical IV, delta, gamma (extra credit):
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/VIPS/volatility-greeks
● Final action: Bought 5 contracts at $0.3566 each (total cost $178.30), set sell order 3
contracts at $0.60 -- then I’m playing with house money

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Is This Whale Part of a Bigger Strategy?

Nope, pure call action

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Overall Review

● Flow for whale expiry: premium >$9K June 25 super bullish 99.5%
● Flow for the next 3-4 expiries: premium >$19K June and first expiration in July super bullish
98.3%
● Flow for all dates forward: premium >$49K no other filters super bullish 97.8%
● Any obvious clusters? Not on the whale side, on smaller transactions there are veteran strats

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Ticker-specific and Expiry-specific Review

Go look at all the expiries (and show charts): https://unusualwhales.com/flow/tickers/vips

Need to ask Snorlax about this one, flow on one side was super bullish but tickers/vips flow is bearish...

Alert Page Checklist

● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? Up up up!
● What’s the volume/open interest ratio? 21.96 best
● What’s the implied volatility IV? 62.03% best
● What’s the delta? 0.1717 best
● What’s the gamma? 0.063 good (wish this was a little higher but might increase)
● Barchart: IV increasing over the last few days

Company Alerts Checklist

https://unusualwhales.com/company/VIPS/alerts
● Charting tab: 2 alerts yesterday (Tue 6/1) both OTM calls 3-4 weeks out
● Sentiment tab: bullish but OTM call skew is 0.01, need to ask the gang about that one
Final Sanity Check (delete this but make sure you think about it before you FOMO in)
$FXI is increasing, UW algo has a history of $VIPS winners, this particular alert has already (temporarily)
hit +30%, and research into $VIPS and $TME both were a go for shares… let’s get this one.
$SOXL 2021-06-18 C $48.00 Bid-Ask $0.75 to $0.80
● Fri 5/28/2021 SOXL etf tracks semiconductors deep OTM call
● https://unusualwhales.com/alerts/e874481a-6712-48dc-95cd-d5d3bf80b79e
● Barchart for historical IV, delta, gamma (extra credit):
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/XYZ/volatility-greeks
● Final action: bought X contracts, sell target Y, stop loss Z

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Is This Whale Part of a Bigger Strategy?

Many large option transactions for SOXL, at least two large straddles, expectation is that price will move
significantly, but the large latest SOXL call for $800K does not appear to be part of an advanced strategy.

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Overall Review

**Delete this when complete but here’s a reminder) Review how Snorlax builds the charts:
https://twitter.com/snorlax_support/status/1393004121356132356, we can see how the left 4 charts are
built but the 5th and final one is the secret sauce -- all we know is that it weighs bid/ask pricing heavily!

https://unusualwhales.com/flow <- this is the total ocean flow where we see all options, filter this

● Flow for whale expiry: $249K is 57.2% bullish for 6/18, $99K is 56.1% bullish for 6/18
● Flow for the next 4 expiries:
● Flow for all dates forward:
● Any obvious clusters? Many straddles for 6/18 expiry, asked group about other strategy

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Ticker-specific and Expiry-specific Review

Go look at all the expiries (and show charts): https://unusualwhales.com/flow/tickers/xyz

(Sort by bearish flows to look at the harshest expiries)

Alert Page Checklist

● Total Avg Return for Similar Alerts = x%

● Total Median Return for Similar Alerts = x%
● Total Percent of Winners (>= 25% return) for Similar = x%
● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? XYZ
○ Delete these bullets before finishing diligence but keep these important details in mind!
○ Calls that reach +10% returns have:
■ 77.2% chance of reaching a 30% return
■ 64% chance of reaching a 50% return
■ 42.8% chance of reaching a 100% return
■ … if it’s already up 10%, it’s pretty likely to reach 50%
○ Puts that reach +10% returns have:
■ 68.5% chance of reaching a 30% return
■ 50.2% chance of reaching a 50% return
■ 27.9% chance of reaching a 100% return
■ … if it’s already up 10%, it is pretty likely to reach 30%, so harvest profit!
● What’s the volume/open interest ratio? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)
○ Directly from /analytics/win:
■ “For calls you are looking for volatility of 69-83% for winners, looking for
high volume (+400), lower OI (18-37), etc.”
○ Directly from /analytics:
■ “Generally a volume/oi ratio greater than 4 but less than 10 in the last/first
30 minutes of the trading day seems to be most profitable”
● What’s the implied volatility IV? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)
○ Directly from /analytics/win:
 ■ “Monthly Call best IV is (81.8% to 124%], Monthly Put best IV is (42.3% to
59.2%]”
■ “Weekly Call and Put best IV is (59.2% to 81.8%]”
○ Directly from /analytics:
■ “look for lower delta and IV under 100%” (be careful with >100% IVs)

Volume/Open Interest (Vol/OI) Implied Volatility (IV)

Range CALL Ranks PUT Ranks Range CALL Ranks PUT Ranks

3 to 3.71 OK OK 0% to 27.44% Best OK

3.71 to 4.36 Best Good 27.44% to 35.36% Good OK

4.36 to 5.36 Best Good 35.36% to 41.27% OK OK

5.36 to 6.92 OK Good 41.27% to 47.84% OK Good

6.92 to 9.48 Best Best 47.84% to 56.03% Best OK

9.48 to 14.053 Good OK 56.03% to 67.06% Best Good

14.053 to 22.921 Best Good 67.06% to 80.37% Good OK

22.921 to 46.795 Best Good 80.37% to 98.86% Best Best

46.795 to 133.58 OK Good 98.86% to 133% Good OK

133.58 to 34000 Best Good 133% to 1055% Good OK

** table notes: Vol/OI for calls has visibly differentiated medians but the put medians are very similar
** table notes: IV for calls has visibly differentiated medians but again the put medians are very similar

● What’s the delta? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)

○ Directly from /analytics/win:
■ “Monthly Call and Put best delta is (-0.0834 to 0.178]”
■ “Weekly Call best delta is (0.178 to 0.321], Weekly Put best delta is (-0.0834
to 0.178]”
● What’s the gamma? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)
● Extra Credit barchart.com historicals: go to the barchart.com link and examine how the IV,
Delta, and Gamma have changed over time…

Delta Gamma

CALL Range C Rank PUT Range P Rank Range CALL Rank PUT Rank

0 to 0.09 Good -0.99 to -0.37 OK 0 to 0.0073 OK OK

0.0073 to 0.012 OK OK

0.09 to 0.19 Best -0.37 to -0.26 OK 0.012 to 0.019 OK OK

0.019 to 0.026 Good OK

0.19 to 0.26 Good -0.26 to -0.18 Good 0.026 to 0.037 OK Good

 0.037 to 0.051 OK OK

0.26 to 0.35 Good -0.18 to -0.1 Best 0.051 to 0.068 Good Good

0.068 to 0.091 Good OK

0.35 to 0.53 OK -0.1 to 0 Good 0.091 to 0.14 OK Good

0.53 to 1 OK 0.14 to 0.87 Best Best

** table notes: medians for Call deltas are clustered closely together but are further apart for Put deltas
** table notes: median for Call gamma 0.14 to 0.87 is far and away highest, Put gammas are clustered

Company Alerts Checklist

● Charting tab: recent calls and puts, are whales forcing a direction? Think back to that $DKNG
call leading up to Arizona OKing sports gambling...
● Sentiment tab: bullish vs bearish, OTM call skew vs OTM put skew

(screenshot of ratios)

Final Sanity Check (delete this but make sure you think about it before you FOMO in)

(Does this make sense? Remember, you’re not going to outsmart the market… that $RIOT put fizzled
even though $BTC prices got hammered -- go with the flow, not your interpretation of what SHOULD
happen! When that $RIOT whale call surfaced it was time to GTFO of those puts and cover downside.)

Box and Whisker Refresher (delete this before finishing diligence):

These are all over the https://unusualwhales.com/analytics page, so here’s a quick review.
2021-05-28 LAZR $27 C: Bid-Ask $0.20 to $0.25 (practice from future)
● Mon 5/24/2021 lotto $LAZR call no specific option triggered alert
● https://unusualwhales.com/alerts/6f441f3d-a288-466c-bf3e-413d008d5a2f
● Barchart for historical IV, delta, gamma (extra credit):
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/LZR/volatility-greeks
● Final action: bought X contracts, sell target Y, stop loss Z

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Is This Whale Part of a Bigger Strategy?

Easy, no specific option transaction triggered this alert, no obvious strategy at the time of alert

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Overall Review

**Delete this when complete but here’s a reminder) Review how Snorlax builds the charts:
https://twitter.com/snorlax_support/status/1393004121356132356, we can see how the left 4 charts are
built but the 5th and final one is the secret sauce -- all we know is that it weighs bid/ask pricing heavily!

https://unusualwhales.com/flow <- this is the total ocean flow where we see all options, filter this

● Flow for whale expiry: 5/28 filter >$4999 was 66.8% bullish
● Flow for the next 4 expiries: all June expirations, >$9999, again was exactly 66.8% bullish
● Flow for all dates forward:
● Any obvious clusters?

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Ticker-specific and Expiry-specific Review

Go look at all the expiries (and show charts): https://unusualwhales.com/flow/tickers/xyz

(Sort by bearish flows to look at the harshest expiries)

Alert Page Checklist

● Total Avg Return for Similar Alerts = x%

● Total Median Return for Similar Alerts = x%
● Total Percent of Winners (>= 25% return) for Similar = x%
● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? XYZ
○ Delete these bullets before finishing diligence but keep these important details in mind!
○ Calls that reach +10% returns have:
■ 77.2% chance of reaching a 30% return
■ 64% chance of reaching a 50% return
■ 42.8% chance of reaching a 100% return
■ … if it’s already up 10%, it’s pretty likely to reach 50%
○ Puts that reach +10% returns have:
■ 68.5% chance of reaching a 30% return
■ 50.2% chance of reaching a 50% return
■ 27.9% chance of reaching a 100% return
■ … if it’s already up 10%, it is pretty likely to reach 30%, so harvest profit!
● What’s the volume/open interest ratio? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)
○ Directly from /analytics/win:
■ “For calls you are looking for volatility of 69-83% for winners, looking for
high volume (+400), lower OI (18-37), etc.”
○ Directly from /analytics:
■ “Generally a volume/oi ratio greater than 4 but less than 10 in the last/first
30 minutes of the trading day seems to be most profitable”
● What’s the implied volatility IV? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)
○ Directly from /analytics/win:
■ “Monthly Call best IV is (81.8% to 124%], Monthly Put best IV is (42.3% to
59.2%]”
 ■ “Weekly Call and Put best IV is (59.2% to 81.8%]”
○ Directly from /analytics:
■ “look for lower delta and IV under 100%” (be careful with >100% IVs)

Volume/Open Interest (Vol/OI) Implied Volatility (IV)

Range CALL Ranks PUT Ranks Range CALL Ranks PUT Ranks

3 to 3.71 OK OK 0% to 27.44% Best OK

3.71 to 4.36 Best Good 27.44% to 35.36% Good OK

4.36 to 5.36 Best Good 35.36% to 41.27% OK OK

5.36 to 6.92 OK Good 41.27% to 47.84% OK Good

6.92 to 9.48 Best Best 47.84% to 56.03% Best OK

9.48 to 14.053 Good OK 56.03% to 67.06% Best Good

14.053 to 22.921 Best Good 67.06% to 80.37% Good OK

22.921 to 46.795 Best Good 80.37% to 98.86% Best Best

46.795 to 133.58 OK Good 98.86% to 133% Good OK

133.58 to 34000 Best Good 133% to 1055% Good OK

** table notes: Vol/OI for calls has visibly differentiated medians but the put medians are very similar
** table notes: IV for calls has visibly differentiated medians but again the put medians are very similar

● What’s the delta? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)

○ Directly from /analytics/win:
■ “Monthly Call and Put best delta is (-0.0834 to 0.178]”
■ “Weekly Call best delta is (0.178 to 0.321], Weekly Put best delta is (-0.0834
to 0.178]”
● What’s the gamma? XYZ (look up rank in median table below)
● Extra Credit barchart.com historicals: go to the barchart.com link and examine how the IV,
Delta, and Gamma have changed over time…

Delta Gamma

CALL Range C Rank PUT Range P Rank Range CALL Rank PUT Rank

0 to 0.09 Good -0.99 to -0.37 OK 0 to 0.0073 OK OK

0.0073 to 0.012 OK OK

0.09 to 0.19 Best -0.37 to -0.26 OK 0.012 to 0.019 OK OK

0.019 to 0.026 Good OK

0.19 to 0.26 Good -0.26 to -0.18 Good 0.026 to 0.037 OK Good

0.037 to 0.051 OK OK
 0.26 to 0.35 Good -0.18 to -0.1 Best 0.051 to 0.068 Good Good

0.068 to 0.091 Good OK

0.35 to 0.53 OK -0.1 to 0 Good 0.091 to 0.14 OK Good

0.53 to 1 OK 0.14 to 0.87 Best Best

** table notes: medians for Call deltas are clustered closely together but are further apart for Put deltas
** table notes: median for Call gamma 0.14 to 0.87 is far and away highest, Put gammas are clustered

Company Alerts Checklist

● Charting tab: recent calls and puts, are whales forcing a direction? Think back to that $DKNG
call leading up to Arizona OKing sports gambling...
● Sentiment tab: bullish vs bearish, OTM call skew vs OTM put skew

(screenshot of ratios)

Final Sanity Check (delete this but make sure you think about it before you FOMO in)

(Does this make sense? Remember, you’re not going to outsmart the market… that $RIOT put fizzled
even though $BTC prices got hammered -- go with the flow, not your interpretation of what SHOULD
happen! When that $RIOT whale call surfaced it was time to GTFO of those puts and cover downside.)

Box and Whisker Refresher (delete this before finishing diligence):

These are all over the https://unusualwhales.com/analytics page, so here’s a quick review.
$MVIS 2021-06-04 C $21.00 at Bid-Ask $0.80 to $0.85
● Fri 5/28/2021 Microvision pretty far OTM call next week expiry
● https://unusualwhales.com/alerts/caf2a980-dfef-40e8-b6b1-df323e0e1c98
● https://unusualwhales.com/flow/tickers/mvis
● https://unusualwhales.com/company/mvis/alerts
● Barchart for historical IV, delta, gamma:
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/mvis/volatility-greeks
● Final action: continue to watch, if $MVIS underlying price starts to go back up this could
be a good opportunity to swim with the whales at a major discount

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Is This Whale Part of a Bigger Strategy?

Investigated the largest option in the “big options” section, pure BLOCK yolo buy on these calls!

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Overall Review

Premium>$4999 and Expiry=2021-06-04 no other filtering but limited to time around the alert, EOD flow
was still way bullish though (even as contract price went down)

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Ticker-specific Review

Jun-4 very bullish as expected but across all expiries (including today’s expiries) was closer to 50/50
bear/bull… be weary

Alert Checklist
● Is it a call? Call
● What day did the alert occur? Friday, not the best day (Monday) but still good
 ● What time did the alert occur? Yep alarm triggered at 0902 eastern
● When is the expiry? Cutting it close, next Friday, technically is >1 week but <1 month but like I
said cutting it close
● What sector is the company in? Electronic Technology
● Emojis: No emojis, don’t love that...

Alert Page Checklist

● Total Avg Return for Similar Alerts = 11.76%
● Total Median Return for Similar Alerts = x%
● Total Percent of Winners (>= 25% return) for Similar = 0%
● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? Up 11% but then way down,
might make for a much better entry price
● What’s the volume/open interest ratio? 37.2
● What’s the implied volatility IV? 185.85%
● What’s the delta? 0.3107
● What’s the gamma? 0.0748
● Extra Credit barchart.com historicals: highest historical IV, contract prices were way higher but
came down a lot, today was exceptionally volatile price was (look at the low / high range for this
contract)

Company Alerts Checklist

● Charting tab: this latest set of calls is definitely hoping for a price increase but the contract value
dropped by more than half today… oof
● Sentiment tab: bullish sentiment, call skew towards OTM very high compared to put skew (and
OTM call skew also >1)
$TME 2021-06-18 C $16.50 at Bid-Ask $0.33 to $0.36
● QW Jun-18 calls for $TME (Spotify partner in China) OTM
● https://unusualwhales.com/alerts/dc44c197-a694-4ba2-8aaa-8274574d845c
● $TME Flow: https://unusualwhales.com/flow/tickers/tme
● $TME Company: https://unusualwhales.com/company/tme/alerts
● Barchart: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/XYZ/volatility-greeks
● Final action: open order BTO 5 call contracts at $0.3966 each (had to increase from $0.34 each)
but this was because I’m an idiot and thought the market was closing today (Fri 5/28/2021) at
2PM chicago time instead of 3, PATIENCE GOD DAMNIT PATIENCE, goal is to achieve +30%
since it got to +10% return already so watch closely, total spend $198.30 without commission.
● Tue 6/1/2021: sold 3 contracts to close for $0.63 each totaling $189, so as long as I sell the
remaining 2 contracts for >$0.01 (i.e. as long as they don’t expire totally worthless) I will AT
LEAST break even :)

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Is This Whale Part of a Bigger Strategy?

I think the UW algo flagged this one after many high premium calls were purchased in rapid succession…
none of them were a part of spreads, straddles, strangles, etc… just beautiful OTM calls babayyyy!

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Overall Review

Premium >$4999, Expiry = 2021-6-14, no other limits… even though the premium, volume, and ask vs bid
pie charts are more bearish, REMEMBER THAT THE UW ALGO IS SMARTER THAN ME: BULLISH.

Let’s pick out those orders too just so we have them referenced:
“Don’t Fight the Flow” Ticker-specific Review

Bullish for the 2021-6-18 call at $16.50 -- nice.

Alert Checklist

(delete this line to save space, but this section sourced from: https://unusualwhales.com/analytics/win)

● Is it a call? Call
● What day did the alert occur? Friday, one article says that’s great another says that’s weak :/
● What time did the alert occur? Transactions between 0945 and 1122, that’s the best time range
● When is the expiry? >1 week but <4 weeks on 2021-06-18, best expiry range
● What sector is the company in? Tech services -- best on average, nice
● Emojis: Bullish, ask side, Chinese ADR

Alert Page Checklist

● Total Avg Return for Similar Alerts = 5.56%

● Total Median Return for Similar Alerts = 5.56%
● Total Percent of Winners (>= 25% return) for Similar = 0% (maybe lack of historical?)
● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? Up 5.5%, 1353 CST up past
10% come on orders FILLLLL
● What’s the volume/open interest ratio? 3425/243 = 14.095, not the >4 but <10 quoted in
/analytics but 14.095 is in the best bucket from the box and whisker plots
● What’s the implied volatility IV? 43.00%, just OK bucket on box and whiskers :/

● What’s the delta? 0.3377, good bucket on box and whiskers

● What’s the gamma? 0.2245, best bucket on box and whiskers
 ● Extra Credit barchart.com historicals: not a lot of history, I’m figuring this is a new contract
offering but I can confirm that the IV is up a few percentage points :) wish I bought yesterday tho
haha

Company Alerts Checklist

● Charting tab: limited since $TME collapse in March (Archegos) but last two days calls
● Sentiment tab: bearish but call volume is very green across all expiry dates, put skew way over
call skew… very interesting
Final Sanity Check

When I did my DD on $TME for buying shares, I liked a lot about the company… Perhaps this is an early
indication of those share buy-backs ramping up? We will see...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/tencent-music-announces-1-billion-share-buyback-program.html
$CCL 2021-06-04 C $31 at Bid-ask: $0.21 to $0.24
● Carnival Cruise lines OTM 2-week call, COVID play makes sense price is rising
● #buffets-buffet link
● Alert link
● Flow for Ticker page (find the expiry, strike, and type) https://unusualwhales.com/flow/tickers/ccl
● UW company link https://unusualwhales.com/company/CCL/alerts
● Barchart for historical IV, delta, gamma:
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/XYZ/volatility-greeks
● Final action: do not buy, wait to see if (1) contract starts to go up (2) IV moves to more
profitable bucket (3) gamma moves to more profitable bucket

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Overall Review

Criteria: $19999 minimum premium, expires in May and June 2021, bullish

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Ticker-specific Review

Not so good on the specific-ticker Flow page, could not find the expiry + strike from this whale, overall is
bearish...

Alert Checklist
● Is it a call? Call
● What day did the alert occur? Tuesday (not the best but good runner-up)
● What time did the alert occur? 10:09AM eastern time very good
● When is the expiry? 6/4/2021, fits the >1 week but <1 month criteria
● What sector is the company in? Consumer services, not as good as Tech but still high-ranking
● Emojis: Bull and Ask side, not the best emojis but OK

Alert Page Checklist

 ● **hypothesis: this type of alert has very limited or no historical UW data
● Total Avg Return for Similar Alerts = -8.33%
● Total Median Return for Similar Alerts = N/A
● Total Percent of Winners (>= 25% return) for Similar = N/A
● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? Down, kind of risky, might
want to watch this for another day or two to see if it goes up otherwise nope
● What’s the volume/open interest ratio? 5.27, “middle” but meets /analytics target
● What’s the implied volatility IV? 47.27%, “low” group even though it meets IV under 100%
● What’s the delta? 0.1837, “high”
● What’s the gamma? 0.1167, “low”
● Extra Credit barchart.com historicals: N/A

Company Alerts Checklist

● Charting tab: recent calls and puts, price is generally trending up, COVID vacation play
● Sentiment tab: big OTM call skew

Final Sanity Check

Makes sense, Carnival will benefit from vacationers escaping their quarantine lockdowns.
IN PROGRESS $TWTR 2021-08-20 C $62.50 @ bid ask $2.35 to $2.39

● Underlying at $54.53 at time of alert, closed at $57.06 but still OTM

● #buffets-buffet link (free, normally I focus on Premium but I’ve been watching Twitter)
● UW alerts link
● UW company link
● Barchart for historical IV: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/TWTR/overview
● Final action: xyz

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Review

(write down criteria like premium threshold, screenshot resulting flow)

(screenshot the “show charts” results bottom right pie chart, bullish or bearish?)

Notification Checklist

● PRO / CON: on average, calls outperform puts

● PRO / CON: day of week, on average Mondays and Fridays perform best
● PRO / CON: emojis, look for bulls, ask side, repeated bull flag, first-timers, tread lightly
with bears, bid side, hedge, lotto, intraday or short expiration, memes
● PRO / CON: expiration, monthly performs best (>1 week but <1 month)
● PRO / CON: evaluate IV **from /analytics, look for lower delta and IV under 100%
○ Best medians: [0% to 27.44%], [47.84% to 56.03%], and [80.37% to 98.86%]
○ Runner-up medians: [27.44% to 35.36%], [56.03% to 67.06%], [98.86% to
133%], and [133% to 1055%] but avoid those >100%
○ Worst medians: [35.36% to 41.27%], [41.27% to 47.84%], and [67.06% to
80.37%]
○ ***** TODO for IV: find a historical IV source and compare the current IV, as
reported in the alert, against the historical IV -- increased IV will drive the
premium higher
● PRO / CON: evaluate volume and OI (volume/open interest ratio), in terms of OI vs
volume it is interesting that volume/oi seems to be a good metric for informed trading.
Generally a volume/oi ratio greater than 4 but less than 10 in the last/first 30
minutes of the trading day seems to be most profitable.
○ Best medians: [3.71 to 4.36], [6.92 to 9.48], [14.053 to 22.921], [22.921 to
46.795], and [133.58 to 34000] but probably avoid those high ones
○ Runner-up medians: [4.36 to 5.36] and [9.48 to 14.053]
○ Worst medians: [3 to 3.71], [5.36 to 6.92], [46.795 to 133.58]
● PRO / CON: evaluate delta **from /analytics, look for lower delta and IV under 100%
○ Best medians: [0.09 to 0.19]
○ Runner-up medians: [-0.1 to 0.09], [0.19 to 0.26], and [0.26 to 0.35]
○ Worst medians: [0.35 to 0.53], [0.53 to 1]
● PRO / CON: evaluate gamma
○ Best medians: [0.14 to 0.87]
○ Runner-up medians: [0.019 to 0.26], [0.051 to 0.068], [0.068 to 0.091]
○ Second runner-up medians: [0.012 to 0.019], [0.026 to 0.037], [0.091 to 0.14]
○ Worst medians: [0 to 0.0073], [0.0073 to 0.012], [0.037 to 0.051]
Box and whisker quick refresher: that line in the center is the MEDIAN (most frequent, which is
good for dummies like me), the box covers 25% to 75%, and the whiskers extend from 0-25%
and 75% to 100%. DELETE THIS EXAMPLE IN INDIVIDUAL WRITE-UPS THOUGH

Alert Page Checklist

● Total Avg Return for Similar Alerts = x%

● Total Median Return for Similar Alerts = x%
● Total Percent of Winners (>= 25% return) for Similar = x%
● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? xyz

Company Alerts Checklist

● Charting tab: recent calls and puts

● Sentiment tab: bullish vs bearish, OTM call skew vs OTM put skew

(screenshot of ratios)

Final Sanity Check

(Does this make sense? Remember, you’re actually an idiot… that $RIOT put turned on you
even though $BTC prices got hammered -- the market is not necessarily logical!)
$ET 2021-07-02 C $11.50 @ Bid-Ask $0.13 - $0.16

● Monday 5/24/2021, very long OTM call on LNG pipeline company Energy Transfer
● #buffets-buffet
● UW alerts link
● UW company link
● Final action: $ET 2021-07-02 C $11.50, 5 contracts @ $0.1466 each
●

“Don’t Fight the Flow” Review

Premium > $19,999 in general not a lot of really big whales here, perhaps the prices are too low? Key pie
chart bottom right is not overwhelmingly bullish (54.5% bullish) but premium, volume and # of calls are
all very strong bullish

Notification Checklist

● PRO: on average, calls outperform puts

● PRO: day of week, on average Mondays and Fridays perform best
● CON: only emoji is “monthly” but $ET price is 11.76% away from the $11.50 strike so this kind of
seems like a directional bull but I’m not the algo and I’m a dipshit :/
● CON: expiration is more than a month out, we know that >1 week but <1 month is on average the
best performer
● PRO: IV is 38.82% which is one of the best-performing medians, historical volatility is 37%, IV
Percentile is 2% (so it’s almost never been lower) and IV Rank is 2.48%
● CON: Vol=2107, OI=49 so ratio is 43 -- even though this is technically in one of the best ratio
medians, it violates the “greater than 4 but less than 10” rule
● OK: delta=0.2078, not the best median range but a runner-up
● PRO: gamma=0.2189 which is nicely in the best median box

Alert Page Checklist

● Total Avg Return for Similar Alerts = 12.50%

● Total Median Return for Similar Alerts = N/A
● Total Percent of Winners (>= 25% return) for Similar = 0%
 ● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? Sideways, still at $0.16

Company Alerts Checklist

● Charting tab: OK historical whales are ELITE, multiple 100% calls

● Sentiment tab: OTM call skew the highest I’ve ever seen, a lot of short-term call volume in the
$10, $10.50, and $11 strike prices

Final Sanity Check

$ET price has been on a rally, natural gas enjoying some popularity, stocks always go up, blah blah blah
-- except their whole legal battle (refer to due diligence on $ET stock inside TV template, all research is
already there).
$DKNG 2021-06-25 C $55 @ Bid-Ask: $0.60 - $0.66

● Due diligence Friday 2021-05-21

● % diff is +21.41% as Friday close was $44.63 so it’s pretty far OTM
● #buffets-buffet link:
https://discord.com/channels/710524439133028512/721759406089306223/8453658675
49556758
● UW alerts link:
https://unusualwhales.com/alerts/ca10b82d-d51a-4cfe-b824-6d98fbefe1a8
● UW company link: https://unusualwhales.com/company/DKNG/alerts

Unusual Whales Notification Checklist

● PRO: on average, calls outperform puts

● PRO: on average, Mondays and Fridays perform best
● OK: emojis are pretty good -- bull, repeat bull flag, but risky because (1) it’s more than 1
month out (6/25/2021 expiry) and (2) it’s ARK-owned
● CON: expiration, monthly performs best (>1 week but <1 month) and unfortunately this is
1 month + 2 days out
● PRO: evaluate open interest and volume, on average best Volume/OI ratio is 7 to 46 and
this one lands right in the sweet spot at 3872/461 = 8.72
● PRO: evaluate IV, it’s not the ideal 80.37% and 98.86% IV, but the 56% to 67% range is
very close in terms of average max return (**from /analytics, look for lower delta options
and IV under 100%)
● PRO: evaluate delta, on average best delta range is 0.09 to 0.19 and this one lands in
that same sweet spot at 0.16

Unusual Whales Company Alerts Checklist

● Charting tab: all calls leading up to Friday, looking bullish

● Sentiment tab: strong bullish, next few weeks are all bullish seeing higher call volumes
but the OTM call skew is almost zero so whale plays are nearly all ITM or ATM
compared to puts
Unusual Whales Alert Page Checklist

● Total Avg Return for Similar Alerts = 1.52%

● Total Median Return for Similar Alerts = N/A
● Total Percent of Winners (>= 25% return) for Similar = 0%
● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? sideways
This one is not so clear -- especially considering the “similar alerts” metric. Compared to $AAL
American Airlines, $DKNG Draftkings has far more whale options tracked, which leads me to
believe there is a far larger sample set of historical performers… seeing these all around zero
leads me to believe that this might be a bad whale to follow.

Unusual Whales “Don’t Fight the Flow” Review

Premium > $99,999 and Expiration > 5/21/2021

Bottom right pie chart is very bullish and is confirmed by all the other pie charts, but so many are
deep ITM… not sure exactly what to make of that.

Final Sanity Check

Sports betting is generally expected to be a big growth opportunity as states like New York
(relatively soon) and California (long term) legalize online gambling, so this play makes sense.
However, I think I need to do more research to understand deep (10-20% or more) ITM
calls and puts to have better conviction in this investment idea.
$AAL 2021-06-11 C $21 @ Bid-Ask $2.22 - $2.23

● Due diligence on Friday 2021-05-21

● Underlying $AAL at $22.88 so this call is in the money ITM
● #buffets-buffet link:
https://discord.com/channels/710524439133028512/721759406089306223/8453346140
20194374
● UW alerts link:
https://unusualwhales.com/alerts/a29f1491-8254-4d2a-ad02-06b0acd0e946?utm_sourc
e=unusual_whales&utm_medium=discord&utm_campaign=premium_alerts
● UW company link: https://unusualwhales.com/company/AAL/alerts

Unusual Whales Notification Checklist

● PRO: it’s a call, we know that calls generally outperform puts

● PRO: it was placed on a Friday, we know Mondays and Fridays are the best performers
● PRO: favorable emojis (bull and ask side)
● PRO: it’s a monthly call (expires in 3 weeks) we know that the best max average returns
were observed on monthly calls >1 week but <1 month
● OK: IV is 48.65%, technically the best IV range for calls is 80.37% to 98.86% per the
Analytics page but the 47.84% to 56.03% range looks close for average max return
● OK: open interest is 252, OI/volume ratio is 8.09, the average max return for this ratio is
middle of the pack
● CON: delta is 0.785, the 0.53 to 1 range is not the worst but it is the second worst for
average max return
● OK: gamma is 0.1091, that is in the “second runner up” median group

Unusual Whales Company Alerts Checklist

● Charting tab: price up about a dollar (from $21.68 on Mon May-10 to $22.64 on Fri
May-21)
● Sentiment tab: bullish, OTM call skew 34.21 vs OTM put skew 0.03
Unusual Whales Alert Page Checklist

● Total Avg Return for Similar Alerts = -0.45%

● Total Median Return for Similar Alerts = N/A
● Total Percent of Winners (>= 25% return) for Similar = 0%
● Has contract premium gone up / down / sideways since alert? Down slightly
The individual alert page shows the underlying price did not change much, but the price of the
contract has actually gone down since the whale buy -- this is good for small-timers like me,
since less expensive contracts are easier on my small portfolio.

However, the algo says that similar calls performed poorly (or the data set of similar calls is
exceedingly small)… this is very concerning. Proceed with caution.

Unusual Whales “Don’t Fight the Flow” Review

The overall bullish vs bearish for the filtered data set is very green, and the volume and
premium for calls vs puts confirm.

Final Sanity Check -- does this make sense?

Yes, $AAL is likely to benefit as pent-up travel demand can finally be met thanks to vaccination
rollout inside major economies. Following this whale seems like a good opportunity.