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MANAGEMENT OF WATER SCARCITY IN ARID AREAS.Study case: Ziz watershed

the way forward

Preprint · September 2020

DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10504267.1

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2 MANAGEMENT OF WATER SCARCITY IN ARID AREAS.

3 Study case: Ziz watershed the way forward

4 Ismail. Elhassnaoui1, M.A.S. Wahba2, Zineb. Moumen3, Issam. Serrari4, Ahmed.
5 Bouziane1, Driss. Ouazar1, and Moulay. Driss. Hasnaoui5

1
6 Mohammadia School of Engineers, Mohammed V University in Rabat, Morocco.
2
7 Deputy Chairman, Regional Training Sector for Water Resources and Irrigation, Ministry of
8 Water Resources and Irrigation, Egypt.
3
9 Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain.
4
10 Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Marrakech, Morocco.
5
11 Ministry of Equipment, Transport, Logistics and Water, Rabat, Morocco.
12 Corresponding author: Ismail Elhassnaoui (is.elhassnaoui@gmail.com)

13 Key Points:
14 • Climate change, SDGs (6)
15 • Temporal downscaling
16 • Real-time dam management
17 • Hydropower
18 • Dam performance
19
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20 Abstract
21 The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development aims to reach 17 Sustainable Development Goals
22 (SDGs). The 6th goal (SDGs (6) deals with water security, which refers mainly to water use effi-
23 ciency and water stress. Indeed, water security plays an important role in water-food-energy nexus.
24 This work aims to enhance dam performance under climate change to overcome water scarcity.
25 The study is conducted through the multiobjective Hassan Addakhil dam in Morocco. The novelty
26 of this work is providing hourly precipitation and evaporation data through temporal downscaling
27 and developing a real-time dam management tool. The real-time dam management algorithm is
28 based on a water balance equation and rule curves. The model is coupled with the Hydrologic
29 Modeling System (HEC-HMS). This tool provides information about (i) dam storage, (ii) dam re-
30 lease, (iii) dam evaporation, (iv) dam diversion, (v) spilled water volume, (vi) emergency spilled
31 water volume, (vii) dam inflow, (viii) irrigation demand, (ix) irrigation shortage, (x) dam siltation,
32 (xi) dam hydropower production, (xii) hydropower energy income. The result shows that real-time
33 management can enhance dam management. In this sense, the dam reliability and resilience have
34 increased respectively from 40% to 70% and from 16% to 66%. Besides, the vulnerability re-
35 mained constant.

36 1 Introduction
37 According to the IPCC’s Vth Report, 80% of the world’s population faces a water security
38 crisis (Jiménez Cisneros et al., 2015). Furthermore, renewable surface water and groundwater
39 resources will significantly decrease in most dry subtropical regions (Kaito et al., 2000). The water
40 security crisis will intensify water stress among agriculture and energy production. For the 2000-
41 2080 fu-ture period, crop water demand will increase by 20%, under the A2 scenario (Fischer et
42 al., 2007). Moreover, (Gain, 2016) shows that Africa will experience a very high water security
43 crisis, which needs integrated strategies focusing on water management, enhancing water
44 accessibility, water safety, and quality (Figure 1).
45 From 2000 to 2015, UN members have adopted the Millennium Development Goals
46 (MDGs). This program concerns emerging countries. It aims eight goals: poverty, hunger, disease,
47 unmet school-ing, gender inequality, and environmental degradation. Indeed, the (MDGs)
48 concludes at the end of 2015, and global awareness about sustainable development brings a set of
49 Sustainable Develop-ment Goals. In September 2015, the United Nations members adopted the
50 17 Sustainable Devel-opment Goals (SDGs), which concern all the word. The 6th goal deals with
51 water security in a way to ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation
52 for all (Sachs, 2012).
53 Morocco is a Mediterranean country located in northwestern Africa, bathed in the North
54 by the Mediterranean Sea and in the West by the Atlantic Ocean. The kingdom covers an area of
55 710850 km², with a population estimated to 35 M according to the 2014 census. Due to the
56 topographic conditions, the influence of the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, the climate
57 in Morocco is variable (Figure 2). Based on Emberger’s quotient (Condés & García-Robredo,
58 2012; Mokhtari et al., 2013), the climate in Morocco ranges from Humid bioclimatic stage to
59 Saharan bioclimatic stage (Karmaoui et al., 2020) (Figure 2). Indeed, 80% of the country's area
60 experiences precipitation less than 250 mm/year (Morocco, 2014). The availability of freshwater
61 per capita in Morocco is below 1000 m3 per person per year, which makes it one of the African
62 countries suffering from water scarcity, according to (Falkenmark et al., 1989), per capita
63 availability of renewable fresh-water resources index.
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64 Based on the future projections of regional climate model RACMO2/KNMI,(Philandras et

65 al., 2011) shows that the mean annual precipitation within morocco will decrease between -40%
66 to-50% dur-ing the period 2071–2100. In this context, Morocco is one of the countries highly
67 treated by water security problems (Bank, 2017). To overcome this problem, Morocco has adopted
68 a dam policy since 1960 (Karmaoui et al., 2020). This policy increased the number of large dams
69 from 16 to 128 by 2009, mobilizing 11.7 billion m3. Furthermore, the kingdom is planning to build
70 three new large dams to reach an additional 1700 million m3 per year by 2030 (Afilal, 2017).
71 Moreover, Morocco has strengthened the legal water frame by adopting Law 10-95 in 1995 and
72 Law 96-15 in 2016, aiming to ensure water security and strengthen decentralized water
73 management. (Afilal, 2017; Avellà-Reus, 2019; Molle, 2017).
74 Moving to dam construction to guarantee water security begins in the 19th century (Shah
75 & Kumar, 2008), which leads to the construction of 50.000 large dams in the 20th century
76 (Sparrow et al., 2011). Dams are multiobjective in a way to guarantee agriculture demand, water
77 supply (Zhao et al., 2012), Hydroelectric production, and flood control (Elhassnaoui et al., 2020).
78 However, (Karami & Karami, 2019) and (Okkan & Kirdemir, 2018) show that, under RCP8.5
79 projections, reservoir inflow will decrease, in the Mediterranean in a way to alter the reservoir's
80 sustainability. Therefore, sustainable management of existing dams become a real challenge for
81 decision-makers (Karami & Karami, 2019). Then we need a better approach to enhance the
82 performance of the ex-isting dams(Tiğrek et al., 2009).
83 In this sense, linear and dynamic algorithms are required for boosting dams operation to
84 meet downstream demands (Hejazi & Cai, 2011). Many studies have developed models based on
85 a water balance equation as an alternative to water resource management. (Tinoco et al., 2016)
86 carried out a study over the Macul basin in Ecuador to maintain the sustainable balance between
87 irrigation and river ecology. The results show that meeting irrigation demand supposes that the
88 decision-makers should adopt for deficit irrigation and the modification of spillway dimension
89 (Saha et al., 2017). A reservoir operation function under the HEC-5 model was proposed to analyze
90 a system of reser-voirs at a daily time step using the water balance equation. (T. Silva &
91 Hornberger, 2019) devel-oped a model that can better enhance dam performance by the
92 optimization of irrigation satisfac-tion and hydropower demand. The model is based on the water
93 balance equation at a monthly time step. The algorithm enhanced the multipurpose reservoir
94 cascade system in Sri Lanka based on the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability indicators.
95 (Jaiswal et al., 2020) propose a model based on a water balance equation coupled with the Soil and
96 Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for efficient dam releases. The study was conducted over
97 the Tandula dam in India at a daily time step. (Jingwen Wu et al., 2020) developed a reservoir
98 operation function in the Soil and Water Assess-ment Tool (SWAT), based on a water balance
99 equation at a daily time step. (Dong et al., 2020) de-veloped a model able to regulate dam storage
100 best. The results show that the model can better relo-cate surplus stream flow in the wet season to
101 the dry season and mitigate the extreme events. Fur-thermore, optimizing models were developed
102 for overcoming extreme events impact and enhanc-ing the dam performance models. (Anand,
103 Gosain and Khosa 2018; Appuhamige and Susila; Guariso, Haynes and Whittington 1981; Milano
104 et al. 2013; Omar 2014; Wu and Chen 2013).
105 In this study, we propose a real-time dam management algorithm based on water balance
106 and rule curves as a constraint condition to guarantee an optimal water policy. This model is
107 coupled with the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS), and a precipitation temporal
108 downscaling model developed by HEC-HMS has been proposed for hydrological modeling to
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109 provide hourly inflows to the dam. The precipitation temporal downscaling model based on a
110 combination of Intensity-duration-frequency curves (IDF) and designed hyetograph of Chicago,
111 was used to provide hourly precipitation. Furthermore, to assess the water balance at an hourly
112 time step, hourly evaporation was estimated by temporal downscaling of monthly evaporation,
113 using polynomial regression. The real-time dam management tool was conducted through VB.net.
114 This tool provides information about (i) dam storage, (ii) dam release, (iii) dam evaporation, (iv)
115 dam diversion, (v) spilled water volume, (vi) emergency spilled water volume, (vii) dam inflow,
116 (viii) irrigation demand, (ix) irri-gation shortage, (x) dam siltation, (xi) dam hydropower
117 production, (xii) hydropower energy in-come.
118

119
120 Figure 1: Global water security index(Gain, 2016)
121
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122
123 Figure 2: Bioclimatic stages of Morocco according to Emberger’s quotient (source: authors)

124 2 Study Area

125 The study was carried out in Hassan Addakhil’s Dam (Figure 3), which regularizes Ziz
126 watershed out-flow. Indeed, across this watershed outlet, the Hassan Addakhil dam was built in
127 1971, with a ca-pacity of 347 million m3. Furthermore, this dam ensures irrigation supply and
128 flood control essen-tially.
129 The extreme hazards in the Ziz basin caused longer and more intense periods of drought
130 and ex-tremely wet years, as was the case in 2010, when the dam spilled for a few months. The
131 climate change effect makes the management of the Hassan Addakhil dam a sensitive issue (Guir-
132 Ziz-Rheriss, 2010). According to the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 8.5, inflow to
133 the Hassan Addakhil dam will decrease by -30% in 2050 (Ezzine, 2017).
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134
135 Figure 3: Upper ZIZ watershed (Elhassnaoui et al., 2020)
136 (Figure 4) shows that over the period (1939-2003), the regular dam inflow is very low;
137 however, the reservoir is exposed to some extreme inflow, which may present a flood risk.
138 Indeed, the rectangle of each box plot represents the interquartile range. Its length and position
139 relative to the lower and upper bounds indicate the consistency and dispersion of the recorded
140 values: the shorter the rec-tangle, the more homogeneous and less dispersed the values are.
141 Therefore, for all months, the boxplot’s rectangles are close to the minimum value. Besides, the
142 boxplots have a length much less than the maximum of the boxplot. Hence most of the recorded
143 values are relatively small and not widely dispersed. For example, for October, 75% of the dam
144 inflow is less than 20.00 million m3, and 25% of the values are between 160.00 million m3 and
145 20.00 million m3.
146 Boosting the performance (Reliability, resilience, and vulnerability) indicators and flood
147 control are the main goals for real-time dam management. (J. Wu et al., 2020) has developed a
148 daily dam operation function under SWAT, but the novelty of this work is to develop hourly dam
149 manage-ment, which can provide hourly information about the dam and simulate the forecasted
150 reservoir inflow to assess future irrigation supply.
151
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180
160
140
Inflow (Mm3)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEV MAR APR MAI JUN JUIL AUG

152
153 Figure 4: Hassan Addakhil monthly inflow (Mm³) over the period 1939-2003 (source: authors)
154

155 3 Materials and Methods

156 The operational management program aims to reduce the water release loss and highlight
157 the opportunity to produce hydroelectric energy. Of course, this study aims to propose a model
158 that can assess real-time water resource management as an alternative to enhance that dam
159 performance. For HASSAN ADD-AKHIL Dam, the leading indicator that can measure the
160 performance of the proposed model is the satisfaction of the irrigation demand with the minimum
161 of water supply loss. The program was developed under visual basic and contains four modules,
162 1-loading input data module, 2-Height Area Volume curve interpolation module, 3-data analyzing
163 and treatment module, 4-the data display module. The charts below demonstrate the algorithm's
164 primary structure (Figure 5).
165
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Daily Precipitation Monthly Evaporation

Precipitation temporal downscaling Evaporation temporal downscaling

Hourly precipitation Hourly Evaporation

Hydrological modeling under (HEC-HMS)

Production function: SCS curve number Transfer function: Clark and unit
hydrograph
Hourly inflow

Real-time dam management program

Flood control Irrigation water supply Hydropower energy

Impact

Social dimension Economic dimension Environmental

dimension
Water security Investment in natural
Food security capital Renewable energy
Electricity Agro-Tourism Ecosystem protection
Agro-industry

Figure 5: Schematic diagram of real-time dam management model processing (Source:

166 authors)

167 2.1 Precipitation data and temporal downscaling

168 The daily maximum rainfall data were provided by the hydraulic basin agency of Guir-Ziz-
169 Rheris over the period 1982-1993 (the most available data) of the rain stations of Zaabel and Foum
170 Tillicht. The key input parameters of this study are the instantaneous precipitation. The
171 precipitation temporal downscaling method used to downscale daily precipitation was conducted
172 using a synthetic design storm hydrograph, developed by (Elhassnaoui et al., 2019). The approach
173 consists of the mixture of the Intensity-duration-frequency curves (IDF) and the designed
174 hyetograph of Chicago (Elhassnaoui et al., 2019).

175 2.2 Dam Data:

176 Dam release and storage data, Height-Area-Volume curves, and dam design characteristics
177 were provided by the hydraulic basin agency of Guir-Ziz-Rheris over the period 1983-2002
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178 2.3 Evaporation data and temporal downscaling

179 The monthly evaporation data were provided by the hydraulic basin agency of Guir-Ziz-
180 Rheris over the period 1983-2002. In situ evaporation observations, data, and Height-Area-
181 Volume curves for the Hassan Addakhil dam were conducted to assess the correlation between
182 evaporation as an independent variable and water surface as a predictor variable. This correlation
183 is assessed for every month over the period 1983-1993 using two-degree polynomial regression.
184 After that, hourly evaporation data was provided using the two-degree polynomial function. The
185 downscaling approach was validated using observed data over the period 1983-2002. Nash-
186 Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) was used to assess the significance of the downscaling method.

187 2.4 The evaluation of hourly siltation:

188 According to the Agency of the hydraulic basin Ziz Ghir Rheriss and Draa, the annual rate
189 of the dam siltation is 1.99 million m3 / year. Thus, we convert the rate of siltation per year to a
190 rate per hour.

191 2.5 Hydrological modeling

192 In this study, we used the same hydrological model calibrated and validated by
193 (Elhassnaoui et al., 2019) in the same watershed under HEC-HMS.

194 2.5.1 GIS data

195 The digital elevation model (DEM) has been derived from the following features: ASTER
196 Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM). The DEM is used to estimate the physical
197 parameters that control water flow, such as slope, the longest flow path.

198 2.5.2 Land Use and soil data

199 The Land Use map was extracted from a Global cover map, a European Space Agency
200 project (ESA) (Bicher et al., 2008). The soil map was obtained from the National Institute of
201 Agronomic Research in Morocco (INRA)

202 2.5.3 Hydrological Model structure:

203 The SCS curve number method is used as a Production function, and the Clark and unit are
204 used as a transfer function. The temporal downscaled precipitations are introduced to the model to
205 estimate the discharge at the watershed outlet, in a way to assess the hourly dam inflow.
206 The goal of the current step is to estimate the hourly water supplies at HASSAN ADD-
207 AKHIL’s dam, employing the rain-flow transfer model, in this case, HEC-HMS
208 (W.Scharffenberg, 2016).
209 The methodology followed consists on conceptualizing the physical characteristics of the
210 basin studied, using the HEC-GEOHMS extension to export them to the HEC-HMS hydrological
211 modeling. In the presented case, Ziz Ghriss watershed has a semi-arid climate where the dry
212 season lasts from 6 to 8 months (Maroc, 2018), then to estimate the water runoff the soil
213 conservation curve number method (SCS-CN) (USDA, 1986) was chosen.
214 The SCS model described as:
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215 Equation 1: SCS equation

Pe 2
R=
216
Pe + S
217 In which:

218
Pe = P − I a
219
I a =  S (3)
2.540
S= − 25.4
220 CN
221 Where:
222 R: cumulative runoff, P: cumulative rainfall; Pe: effective cumulative rainfall, S: potential
223 maximum retention,

224
I a : initial abstraction,  : initial abstraction coefficient, CN: curve number.

225 Once excess precipitation is known, it is transformed into the direct runoff. The HEC-HMS
226 platform has several transfer functions: unit hydrographs of Clark, Snyder and SCS, user-defined
227 hydrographs, Modclark transformation, and kinematic wave. Among these methods, the unitary
228 hydrograph of Clark is frequently used for event modeling. This method is particularly useful for
229 reproducing complex hydrographs, in basins with varied topography and land use (Sabol, 1988)
230 (Chu et al., 2009)
231 Visual examination of the simulated hydrographs could give a previous idea about the
232 quality of the simulation, but it is required to use the evaluating equation to assess the capacity of
233 the rain-flow model to reproduce flood episodes. Those are described in detail in the paper of
234 (Moriasi et al., 2007), the comment and the widely used coefficient is Nash (Nash & Sutcliffe,
235 1970), it is expressed as follows
236 Equation 2: The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency

n 2
(Qobs ,i − Qsim,i )
EF = 1 − i =1


n 2

i =1
(Qobs ,i − Qobs )
237
238 Where,
239 Qobs ,i : Observed discharge, Qsim ,i : Simulated discharge, Qobs : Mean of the observed discharge, n :
240 Number of the observed discharge.

241 2.5.4 Evaluation of the hydrological model performance:

242 The hourly dam inflows simulated using HEC-HMS was validated with the observed dam
243 inflows over the period 1983-1993. The Nash-Suctclife Efficiency indicators were used to assess
244 the accuracy of simulated hourly dam inflows.

245 2.5.5 Crop water demand

246 The irrigation demand in Ziz downstream is estimated by 100 million m3, according to
247 Tafilalet ORMVA. Indeed, the crop water demand is generally 1000 m3 / ha (Hammani et al.,
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248 2012). The dam release program depends on the vegetation cycle of the cultivated species. Indeed,
249 the dam release is following this schedule:
250 1st release: October – November
251 2nd release: January
252 3rd release: March – April
253 4th release: July – August

254 2.6 Hydropower production:

255 The Hassan Addakhil dam was designed primarily to ensure irrigation demand and flood
256 control. However, this section aims to highlight the opportunity to produce hydroelectric energy
257 over this dam, and how the hydropower income can cover the dam maintenance charges. We
258 propose to integrate a hydropower plant to the Hassan Addakhil to enhance the sustainability
259 mission of the dam. In this sense, we designed a hydropower plant.
260 The characteristics of the hydropower station are as follows:
261 Discharge of power plant: The maximum discharge.
262 Hydraulic charge: The difference between the water level and the hydropower plant level.
263 The head power value is estimated by calculating the water head corresponding to the average
264 useful dam reserve of 1988-2009 years.
265 Efficiency: Efficiency of the turbine-generator set which varies between 0.6 and 0.9
266 Installed Capacity: The installed capacity is the sum of the rated capacities of all of the
267 units in the power plant. The rated capacity of a unit is the capacity it is designed to deliver at a
268 given head, discharge, and efficiency.
269 The hydropower production function is as follow:
270
P =  .g . .Q.H
271 Where:
272 P : Hydropower production (kW),  : Density of water (kg.m3), g : Acceleration gravity (m.s-2),
273 Q : Discharge of the power plant (m3.s-1), H : Effective head (m),  : The hydropower plant
274 efficiency

275 2.7 Flood control:

276 The real-time information about the dam inflow can be simulated to provide information
277 about the reservoir outflow. Real-time dam management can assess the outflow discharges and
278 estimating the water volume lost. Hourly dam diversion information can help the decision-maker
279 to avoid flood risk.

280 2.8 Real-time water management tool:

281 The real-time water management program was conducted using VB.net. Figure 6 shows
282 the program interface. Indeed, the interface is composed of four sections: 1) the dam parameter
283 section, 2) the hydropower plant section 3) the data loading section, and finally 4) the dam
284 management processing.
285
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286
287 Figure 6: Program interface of Real-time dam management tool (Source: authors)
288

289 2.8.1 Water balance equation:

290 The real-time dam management program is based on the water mass balance equation
291 (Equation 3). The water balance equation aims to update dam storage at an hourly time step,
292 including dam inflow, dam outflow, evaporation volume, irrigation release, water volume spilled,
293 and water volume evacuated. Figure 7 shows the real-time dam management algorithm operation.
294 Equation 3: the water mass balance equation
𝛥𝑇 𝛥𝑇
295 𝑆𝑖+1 = 𝑆𝑖 + (𝑄𝑖𝑓(𝑖+1) + 𝑄𝑖𝑓(𝑖) ) × − (𝑄𝑜𝑓(𝑖+1) + 𝑄𝑜𝑓(𝑖) ) × − 𝑉𝑒𝑣𝑝 − 𝑉𝑠𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑙 − 𝑉𝑒𝑣𝑎𝑐 − 𝐹𝐼𝑟𝑟
2 2
296 Where Si +1 : Reservoir storage at 𝑖 + 1 time, Si : Reservoir storage at 𝑖 time, Qif ( i +1) : dam inflows
297 at 𝑖 + 1 time, Qif (i ) : dam inflows at 𝑖 time, T : Hourly step, 𝑄𝑜𝑓(𝑖+1) : Dam outflow at 𝑖 + 1
298 time, 𝑄𝑜𝑓(𝑖) : Dam outflow at 𝑖 + 1 time, Vevp : Evaporated volume, 𝑉𝑠𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑙 : Spilled volume, Vevac :
299 Emergency Evacuated volume, FIrr : Irrigation Supply.
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
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Figure 7: Real-time dam management algorithm operation (Source: authors)

307

308 2.8.2 Rule curves:

309 The dam rule curves are used to guarantee the reservoir safety as well as water security.
310 Many studies have developed rule curves for flood control (Chaleeraktrakoon & Chinsomboon,
311 2015) and dam operating (Thongwan et al., 2019). Furthermore, using these curves is a way to
312 guarantee an optimal water policy (De Silva M. & Hornberger, 2019). (Figure 8) shows that the
313 real-time dam management program will release 100% of irrigation demand when the dam
314 capacity is above the storage segmentation 1 (SG1). Else if the dam capacity is between the storage
315 segmentation 1 (SG1) and the storage segmentation 2 (SG2), 70% of the irrigation demand will be
316 released. Else if the dam capacity is between the storage segmentation 2 (SG2) and the dead
317 storage, 50% of irrigation demand will be released.
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318
319 Figure 8: Rule curve schema based on Moroccan hydrological season (Source: Ministry of
320 Equipment, Transport, Logistic and Water)

321 2.8.3 Real-time dam management model validation:

322 The real-time dam management model is validated over 1983-1993 to confirm its ability
323 to reproduce the dam storage. The Nash-Suctclife Efficiency indicators were used to assess the
324 accuracy of simulated dam storage compared with observed storage data over this period.

325 2.8.4 Reservoir Performance Indicator

326 The dam performance is assessed by three indicators Reliability, resilience, and
327 vulnerability. Indeed, reliability is the success of providing demands. Resilience describes how the
328 dam recover from a failure and vulnerability describes the intensity of failure (Ajami et al., 2008;
329 De Silva M. & Hornberger, 2019; Hashimoto et al., 1982).
330 The volume reliability is the number of successful hydrological year X (t ) that the dam
331 meets the downstream demand over a period T
332
333 Equation 4: Reliability
T

 X (t )
334 Reliability = i =1

T
T
335 The resilience is the dam's potential to recover Y (t ) from a failure T −  X (t ) to meet
t =1

336 downstream requirement over a period T

337 Equation 5: Resilience
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 Y (t )
338 Resilience = t =1
T
T −  X (t )
t =1

339 The vulnerability describes the maximum number of successive failures, which highlight
340 the severity of dam failure.
341 Equation 6: vulnerability
342 Vulnerability = max(V (t ))
343

344 3 Results

345 3.1 Temporal Evaporation downscaling:

346 Many studies have performed multiple regression methods and method of fragment for
347 temporal downscaling of hydro climatic data. (Sachindra & Perera, 2018) performs the
348 desegregating of annual evaporation to monthly evaporation using method of fragment. Monthly
349 disaggregation consist on estimation of the ration of the evaporation value in a given month to the
350 total evaporation value over the year. Other authors’ performs the same approach in desegregating
351 corpse temporal hydro climatic data (Rebora et al., 2016; A. T. Silva & Portela, 2012). Furthermore
352 many authors shows that multiple regression lead to a good accuracy in temporal downscaling of
353 hydro climatic data (Contreras et al., 2018; Herath et al., 2016; Hofer et al., 2015; Sharifi et al.,
354 2019). In this study, the temporal downscaling method was processed by evaluation of the
355 accuracy of the dam area with degree two polynomial regressions to predict evaporation from
356 monthly to hourly scale. Figure 9 shows that the R square R2 ranges from 0.42 to 0.93, with an
357 average of 0.73. The R square metric for all months is significant and proves that the dam area can
358 best fit evaporation in polynomial regression.
359
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360
361 Figure 9: The trend curve for the reservoir evaporation or month by month over the period 1983
362 and 2002

363 3.2 Validation of temporal evaporation downscaling:

364 The observed evaporation in the Hassan Addakhil dam, over the period 1982-1993, was
365 considered for the validation of downscaled evaporation using a polynomial trend equation. The
366 Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) for the result of simulated and observed evaporation data is 0.84,
367 which is very significant in terms of the evaporation downscaling model accuracy (Figure 10 and
368 Table 1).
369
30

25
Evaporation Mm3

20

15

10

0
1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93

Simulated Evaporation (Mm3) Observed Evaporation (Mm3)

370
371 Figure 10: Comparison between downscaled and observed evaporation
372
373
374 Table 1: Modeling Efficiency for evaporation downscaling over the period (1982-1993)
375
376
377
Period Watershed Evaporation NSE
378 1982-1993 Upper Ziz Hourly Evaporation validation 0.84
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379 3.3 Evaluation of the hydrological model performance:

380 The hourly water supplies at HASSAN ADD-AKHIL’s dam was conducted through HEC-
381 HMS software, using SCS-CN method. Many studies have been widely used the SCS-CN method
382 for application in continuous rainfall modeling, in arid, subtropical and tropical regions (Geetha et
383 al., 2008; Gumindoga et al., 2017; Halwatura & Najim, 2013; Hrissanthou & Kaffas, 2014).
384 The SCS loss model is adapted to account for the initial humidity conditions of watersheds
385 in the event modeling scale. The parameter CN can indeed be linked to different soil moisture
386 indicators, measured in the field (Huang et al., 2007; Brocca et al., 2009; Tramblay et al., 2010),
387 derived from models (Merchandise and Viel, 2009) or satellite data (Brocca et al., 2010). Based
388 on the simulated water supply to the dam, the real-time dam management tool was validated in
389 terms of dam inflow (Figure 11). The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) for the result of temporal
390 inflow provided by the HEC-HMS model and the observed data over the period 1982-1993 is 0.79
391 (table2). The NSE is significant. The same method was carried out by (Jaiswal et al., 2020)
392
140

120

100
Inflow (Mm3)

80

60

40

20

0
1982/09
1983/01
1983/05
1983/09
1984/01
1984/05
1984/09
1985/01
1985/05
1985/09
1986/01
1986/05
1986/09
1987/01
1987/05
1987/09
1988/01
1988/05
1988/09
1989/01
1989/05
1989/09
1990/01
1990/05
1990/09
1991/01
1991/05
1991/09
1992/01
1992/05
1992/09
1993/01
1993/05
Observed Water supply Simulated water supply
393
394 Figure 11: Comparison between Simulated and observed water supply for HASSAN ADD-
395 AKHIL dam
396
397 Table 2: Modeling Efficiency (EF) of dam inflow over the period (1982-1993)
398
Period Watershed Outlet NSE
1982-1993 Upper Ziz Hassan Addakhil dam 0.79
399

400 3.4 Real-time dam management model validation:

401 The comparison between observed and the simulated dam's storage over the period 1982-
402 1993, shows that the real-time dam management algorithm can accurate the dam storage (Figure
403 12). Indeed, the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) for the observed and the simulated dam storage
404 over the period 1982-1993 data is 0.96, which is very significant (Table 3). The validation of the
405 dam management model was carried out as well using the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency indicator by
406 (Jaiswal et al., 2020; T. Silva & Hornberger, 2019).
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250

200
Dam storage (Mm3)

150

100

50

0
1982-83 1983-84 184-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93
Time

Simulated Observed
407
408 Figure 12: Comparison between simulated and observed dam storage between the period (1982-
409 1993)
410
411 Table 3: Modeling Efficiency (EF) of dam storage over the period (1982-1993)
412
Period Watershed Dam storage NSE
1982-1993 Upper Ziz Hassan Addakhil dam storage simulation 0.96

413 3.5 Real-time dam management performance:

414 The real-time dam management tool enhanced dam performance. Comparison based on
415 agricultural demand satisfaction over the drought period ranged from 1983 to 1992 (Figure 13)
416 shows that real-time dam management tool has enhanced the dam release by an average of 18.33
417 million m3, which represents 20% of the agricultural demand in Ziz downstream over a
418 hydrological season. Indeed, over the same period, the lower dam release volume increased from
419 4.9 million m3 to 13.1 million m3, and the high dam release volume increased from 54.8 million
420 m3 to 89.64 million m3.
421 On the other hand, it can remedy to water release losses. Over the period 1987-1991, the
422 model provides the agricultural requirement without water release losses, however, over the same
423 has released an average surplus of 32 million m3, which represents 32 % of agricultural demand
424 over a hydrological season. Moreover, in 1992 the model algorithm has succeeded in meeting the
425 agricultural demand. However, classical dam management has failed to satisfy the agricultural
426 requirement for the same year.
427 Based on the rule curves and the water balance equation performance at an hourly time
428 step, table 4 shows that the dam reliability and resilience have increased respectively, over the
429 period 1982-1992, from 40% to 70% and from 16% to 66%. Besides, vulnerability remained
430 constant during the same period. The same indicators was performed by (Saha et al., 2017; T. Silva
431 & Hornberger, 2019) to assess the dam performance.
432
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180
160
Irrigation water supply (Mm3)

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1982-83 1983-84 184-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92
Time

Observed Simulated
433
434 Figure 13: Comparison between observed and simulated irrigation water supply
435
436
437 Table 4: Dam performance indicators
Reliability Resilience Vulnerability
Classical dam management 40% 16% 5

Real time-dam management 70% 66% 5

438

439 3.6 Hydropower production

440 The annual electricity consumption is 0.5 TEO / inhabitant (Taoumi, 2008). Besides, the
441 average annual simulated hydropower production over this period is 57.64 GWH, which is equal
442 to the annual consumption of 9912 inhabitants. In the case of a moderately rainy year, the
443 hydropower production will be 89.4 GWH, which is equal to the annual consumption of 14857
444 inhabitants (Figure 14).
445 The average annual income from hydropower supply between 1982 and 1992 is equal to
446 57.6 Million Dirham. The decision-maker must take into account this vital budget to cover all
447 expenses, including dam maintenance (Figure 15).
448
449
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100
90
Hydro-power production (GWH)

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92
450
451 Figure 14: Hydropower production (GWh) over the period (1982-1992)
452
70

60
Annual hydropower energy

50
income (MDH)

40

30

20

10

-
1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92
453
454 Figure 15: Annual hydropower energy income (MDH) over the period (1982-1992)

455 5 Conclusions
456 The operational management program aims to improve the HASSAN ADD-AKHIL dam
457 efficiency by proposing a new adaptive approach for management by valorizing the water cubic
458 meter and by demonstrating that the installation of a hydropower plant is an opportunity to produce
459 clean electric energy. These results can urge the decision-maker to think about improving dam
460 management strategy, especially in an arid and semi-arid watershed.
461 The program provides a real-time regulation of the dam, which can help make an optimal
462 schedule and project strategies related to droughts, impact mitigation, water security, energy
463 conservation, and agriculture development, in case the input data projections are provided.
464 The results obtained during this reflection may be subject to specific errors inherent mainly
465 in the nature and precision of data used and/or the lack of specific data. Indeed, the meteorological
466 and hydrological time series used have several discontinuities and gaps. On the other hand, the
467 number of rainfall and hydrometric stations used is insufficient for a precise assessment of the
468 hydrological behavior at the catchment scale. Therefore, it is essential to optimize the network of
469 measurements and ensure the quality of the instantaneous and daily data records. In this sense, it
470 should be noted that the suggestions and recommendations given above must be considered when
471 interpreting the results obtained by this study.
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472 The adopted approach goes hand in hand with sustainable development goals. A
473 sustainable environment can be attained by preserving, improving, and valuing the environment
474 and natural resources in the long term, maintaining the principal ecological balances, on the risks,
475 and the environmental impacts. A sustainable society can be maintained if it satisfies human needs
476 and meets a social goal by encouraging the participation of all social groups in health, housing,
477 consumption, education, employment, culture. Finally, a sustainable economy aims to develop
478 growth and economic efficiency through sustainable production and consumption patterns (UN
479 1987), in other term switching from the linear to the circular economy.

480 Acknowledgments and data

481 The cooperation in this paper with team from Institute of geographic sciences and natural
482 resources research of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) is according to the collaboration based
483 on the support of Chinese Academy of Sciences President's International Fellowship Initiative
484 (Grant No. 2019VEA0019)
485 The authors would like to acknowledge the support through IRIACC Initiative sponsored
486 by IDRC under the project number 106372-013.
487 The data used in this research are not publicly available due to the Moroccan government
488 restriction. We have purchased the data used in this paper from the Hydraulic Basin Agency of
489 Guir-Ziz-Rheriss.

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