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Methods of Forecasting Population

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Eyosias Birhanu
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26 views10 pages

Methods of Forecasting Population

Uploaded by

Eyosias Birhanu
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Methods Of Forecasting Population

2024/25
By: Eyosias B. ( PhD candidate)
2. Methods Of Forecasting Population
• The knowledge of population forecasting is important for
design of any water supply scheme.
• The design is done in the bases of projected population at the
end of the design period.
The following are the common methods by which the
forecasting of population is done.
1. Arithmetic increases 5. Simple graphical method
method

2. Geometric increase method 6. Master plan curve method

3. . Incremental increase 7. Logistic curve method


method

4. Decrease rate method 8. Ration & correlation


Eyosias B. 2
1.Arithmetic increase method
• This method is based on the assumption that the population is increasing at
a constant rate i.e.
• The rate of change of population with time is constant.
• adopted for forecasting populations of large cities which have achieved
saturation conditions.

Where;

Po= initial population


Pt = population at n decades or years
Δt= decade or year
K= population growth rate (constant)
• This method is generally applicable to large and old cities.
Eyosias B. 3
2.Geometric increase method
• This method is based on the assumption that the percentage increase
in population remains constant

Where
Po= initial population
Pt = population at ‘n’ decades or years
n= decade (Note: decade = 10 years )
K= percentage (geometric) increase
• This method is mostly applicable for growing towns and cities
having vast scope of expansion.
4
3.Incremental Increase Method (Method of varying increment) :
• This method is modification of arithmetical increase method and it
is suitable for an average size town under normal condition where
the growth rate is found to be in increasing order.
• The average increase is determined by the arithmetical method and
to this is added the average of the net incremental increase.

Where :-
pt : population at some time in the future
po: present or initial population
k : rate of increase for each decade
a : rate of change in increase for each decade
n : period of projection in decades
Eyosias B. 5
4.Decrease Rate Method or Declining growth method

• In this method, the average decrease in the percentage


increase is Worked out and is subtracted from the latest
percentage increase for successive period.
• This method is applicable only in such cases, where the
rate of growth of population shown a down ward trend .
• saturation population, and that its rate of growth is a
function of its population deficit:

Declining growth method can be based on the equation:

Eyosias B. 6
4.Declining growth method

• Equation for Declining growth method

may be determined from successive censuses and the


equation: k2

where
pt : population at some time in the future
po: base population
psat: population at saturation level
p , p0 :population recorded n years apart
n: time interval between succeeding
censuses
Eyosias B. Δt : no. of years after base year 7
5.Logistic method : ( Saturation method )

• This method has an S-shape combining a geometric rate


of growth at low population with a declining growth rate
as the city approaches some limiting population.

Eyosias B. 8
5.Logistic method : ( Saturation method )
• A logistic projection can be based on the equation:

where
pt : population at some time in the future
po: base population
psat: population at saturation level
p1 , p2 : population at two time periods
n: time interval between succeeding
censuses
Eyosias B. Δt : no. of years after base year 9
6.Simple graph Method

In this method, the populations of


last few decades are correctly plotted
to a suitable scale on graph.
The population curve is smoothly
extended for getting future
population. This extension should be
done carefully and it requires proper
experience and judgment.

The best way of applying this


method is to extend the curve by
comparing with population curve of
some other similar cities having the
similar growth condition. Simple Graphical Method

Eyosias B. 10

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