(JMFL) Dark Store Visit Data - Zomato - Company Update - 4oct2022
(JMFL) Dark Store Visit Data - Zomato - Company Update - 4oct2022
Zomato | BUY
Potential for value creation beyond food delivery
In its maiden post-listing AGM speech, Kaushik Dutta (Chairman of Board, Independent Swapnil Potdukhe
Director) mentioned that Zomato’s Hyperpure business – that undertakes B2B supplies to swapnil.potdukhe@jmfl.com | Tel: (91 22) 62241876
restaurants – could over the coming years become as big as or bigger than its Food Delivery Sachin Dixit
sachin.dixit@jmfl.com | Tel: (91 22) 66303078
business. We prima facie found that claim to be a bit ambitious despite us being believers
Abhishek Kumar
that there is indeed a significant growth runway. To better understand the operational plans abhishek.kumar@jmfl.com | Tel: (91 22) 66303053
around these verticals, we spent half a day at Zomato’s Hyperpure facility in Bhiwandi that Anuj Kotewar
caters to Mumbai MMR. We also spent the other half of the day visiting one of Blinkit’s 33 anuj.kotewar@jmfl.com | Tel: (91 22) 62241874
operational dark stores in Mumbai – primarily to re-test our thesis on the strong tailwinds (We acknowledge support services of Ankit Zope in
preparation of this report)
that we believe exists on Quick Commerce front. We were positively surprised by the level of
agility and the decentralised nature of operations at both facilities. There was also a very high
level of focus on cost savings and efforts to drive synergy benefits (e.g., integration of Recommendation and Price Target
Current Reco. BUY
Hyperpure and Blinkit supply chains). Our findings re-affirm our conviction on Zomato’s
Previous Reco. BUY
hyper-growth phase alongside profitability improvement over the coming years. Zomato is Current Price Target (12M) 125
our top-pick in the Internet space – we move our TP to INR 125 (from INR 115) as we now Upside/(Downside) 102.5%
also factor in Blinkit’s valuations. Previous Price Target 115
Change 9.2%
Factors driving demand for Hyperpure: 1) One-stop shop solution: The Hyperpure app
acts as a one-stop shop for restaurants compared to 7-8 vendors that a typical restaurant Key Data – ZOMATO IN
otherwise engages for its sourcing needs. 2) On-demand, timely deliveries: Restaurants Current Market Price INR62
can make on-demand purchases – all orders placed by 11 PM on Hyperpure app are Market cap (bn) INR529.2/US$6.5
Free Float 100%
delivered the very next day, that too within a preferred time-slot. This is much more
Shares in issue (mn) 8,548.7
convenient for the restaurant compared to the need to bulk-up purchases in advance Diluted share (mn) 9,131.3
when sourcing from unorganised vendors (due to infrequent and inconsistent deliveries) 3-mon avg daily val (mn) INR9,563.7/US$116.8
that also necessitates higher working capital and storage space. 3) Quality assurance: 52-week range 169/41
Sensex/Nifty 56,789/16,887
Quality issues are limited compared to unorganised players and addressed through INR/US$ 81.9
standardised processes. 4) Wider assortment: Restaurants can order from more than 2k
SKUs across FMCG, fresh, perishables and gourmet products. Price Performance
% 1M 6M 12M
Factors driving demand for Blinkit: 1) Lifestyle driven differentiation: Blinkit differentiates Absolute 3.6 -26.6 -55.1
its SKU assortment beyond the typical grocery, fresh and perishable products. Its offerings Relative* 7.3 -21.6 -53.2
include Home Décor, Pharma OTC, Pet Care, Stationary and Electronics, amongst others. * To the BSE Sensex
We also noticed some unusual assortment such as iPhone 14 & accessories, delicacies
from a local famous sweets-shop and festive favourites such as Lord Ganesha Idols,
Dandia Sticks and Gold & Silver coins (based on festive occasions). The differentiated
assortment is curated based on assessment of null searches or local team feedback. 2)
Customers valuing convenience: Blinkit continues to report rapid growth despite offering
one of the lowest discounts on product MRPs and charging delivery and packaging fees
on almost all orders (including surge fees in some cases). 3) Delighting the consumers:
Most orders are delivered in <15mins (attempt to deliver all orders in <20 mins). Order
bundling is avoided. Customers are presently not charged for cancellations/failed
deliveries. 4) Grofers legacy: Blinkit has been able to reactivate a substantial share of
customer base from the erstwhile Grofers.
High focus on agile and decentralised operations: Our interactions indicated that Zomato,
across its businesses, encourages the local, on-ground operations teams to experiment
with differentiated ideas in micro geographies. This is followed up with frequent
inspections and quick strategy adaptations – akin to a fail fast philosophy.
Addressable opportunity for Hyperpure remains huge: To understand this, we take the
example of Mumbai city that has a total of around 87,000 organised and unorganised
restaurants. Of this only around ~8,000 restaurants are presently ordering from
Hyperpure on a monthly basis, indicating a penetration rate of 9-10%. Even within those
restaurants where Hyperpure has penetrated, its wallet share stands around 5%.
Moreover, competition barring a few players like Ninjacart is unorganised in nature. This
indicates that there is a significant growth runway for Hyperpure in Mumbai.
We see Quick Commerce disrupting the unorganised grocery market: We believe Quick
Commerce platforms are essentially disrupting consumer purchases done through the
unorganised channels - especially the neighbourhood kirana stores in large cities. Their broader
strategy seems to focus on driving the message that shopping on their online platforms is far
more convenient than having to take physical trips to the neighbourhood grocery/convenience
stores. The messaging of speed and convenience essentially addresses the pain-points of urban
families having busy lifestyles and nuclear families. High NPS scores for Quick Commerce
players compared to offline channel and scheduled delivery players are indicative of the
growing consumer satisfaction with the channel.
Zomato - a long-term growth story, reiterate BUY: We remain bullish on the company’s
long-term growth prospects in the hyperlocal delivery space as we believe it is well
positioned to benefit from robust industry tailwinds such as improving tech penetration
and rising income share of digitally native millennials / GenZ. Our 15-year DCF TP for core
Zomato business stands unchanged at INR 115. However, Blinkit’s integration leads to a
revision in our TP to INR 125.
When we visited, Blinkit’s perishable and FMCG operations were getting migrated to the
facility (which were earlier managed by a 3PL player). The facility premises were clearly
demarcated to segregate inventory / SKUs of Hyperpure and Blinkit. Nevertheless, Blinkit
continues to use a separate warehouse to manage non-perishables.
The facility currently manages supplies to ~7k monthly active accounts (each account may
have multiple restaurant outlets, so actual unique outlet count could be higher by 10-
15%); 10-15 new restaurants are getting onboarded every day at the facility.
It has ~170 on-roll/off-roll staff (including security and housekeeping) in a 24-hour cycle.
There are also ~ 40-50 delivery associates for daily delivery of supplies to restaurants.
Restaurants use the ‘Hyperpure’ app to make orders. Orders placed till 11 PM in a day are
typically serviced on the very next day at a time selected by the restaurant. Peak ordering
st
happens in the 1 week of the month. Peak days for orders in a week are Monday and
Friday. Second half of the year is seasonally strong due to festivities.
The facility had despatches of 8-9 tonnes per day till a year back and is now managing c.
40 tonnes of despatches. It has capacity to cater to 170-180 tonnes and with
improvement in processes can also manage despatches of ~250 tonnes per day.
Order description: Current AOV is ~INR 1,600. On average, each order comprises around
9-10 SKUs ranging from F&Vs, ready-to-eat, meat & dairy, oil and other FMCG products.
Product gross margins vary from 5% (FMCG) to 25-30% (in case of packaging/gourmet
products). F&V gross margin is around 15%. Blended gross margin is in the low-teens.
Product sourcing: The facility does inventory sourcing based on recent demand trends
while also taking into account tactical decisions such as cost of holding the inventory
versus margins. A few items such as onions and potatoes are contracted from vendors for
the whole year when prices are close to bottom. The company also works with a set of
contract farmers for hydroponic and exotic vegetables (on a fixed price and guaranteed
purchase contracts). 95% of the FMCG products are sourced directly from brands.
Imported products are sourced through importers. Depending on the product and
quantity, inward supplies are done through a mix of light and heavy commercial vehicles.
Supplier payments are made on average in 2 weeks.
Inventory: The facility had 2000+ SKUs, of which F&V accounted for 150-170 SKUs (can
vary based on seasonality). Gourmet products (typically are not available with other B2B
vendors) accounted for 400+ SKUs. Most FMCG SKUs are different from standard retail
SKUs (e.g., 20kg of wheat flour). Standard SKU checks include manufacturing/expiry date
and manufacturer details, etc. basis the GRN. Based on quality, F&V are available under
three categories – mixed, farm and premium grade. Days of Inventory Hands – typically 6-
7 days, Gourmet products – 2 months, packaging products – up to 6 months.
Wastage (including due to restaurant rejections/non-deliveries) is ~1.5% and goes up to
2.5% in peak rainy conditions. Majority wastage is in F&V category. Some waste is sold to
eco-waste processing vendors while some suppliers accept unsold products.
Key challenges: 1) Capacity utilisation: While the facility that we visited had capacity to
cater to 170-180 tonnes of dispatches every day, current usage was limited to around 40
tonnes only; 2) Process Automation: Dependence on human labour appeared high in
processes such as picking and packing, receiving and stowing and dispatch; 3) Shrinkage:
At c.1.5% (2.5% in peak rainy weather), shrinkage (including returns from restaurants
due to quality issues or miss on delivery timeline) seems high; and 4) Stock-out:
Unavailability of certain products due to demand-supply mismatch is affecting sales by 3-
4%.
Source: JM Financial
Source: JM Financial
Exhibit 3. Hyperpure warehouse: Vehicle docking bays Exhibit 4. Hyperpure warehouse: Unloading of inward supplies
Source: JM Financial
Exhibit 5. Hyperpure warehouse: Large storage capacities Exhibit 6. Hyperpure warehouse: Racks are marked and have
barcodes for easy identification
Exhibit 7. Hyperpure warehouse: Fresh inward vegetables going Exhibit 8. Hyperpure warehouse: Automated packaging and filling
through a quality check machine
Exhibit 9. Hyperpure warehouse: Chambers for Dairy, Meat, F&V and Exhibit 10. Hyperpure warehouse: Storage chamber for Dairy
Frozen are separate based on temperature requirement products
Exhibit 11. Hyperpure warehouse: Storage chamber for F&V products Exhibit 12. Hyperpure warehouse: Storage chamber for Frozen
products
Exhibit 13. Hyperpure: Revenue (INR bn) trend Exhibit 14. Hyperpure: Active cities
2.7
2.0
1.1 2
1
0.1
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 1QFY23 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 1QFY23
Source: Company, JM Financial Source: Company, JM Financial
Exhibit 15. Hyperpure: Unique Restaurant customer base (000’s) Exhibit 16. Hyperpure: Average Revenue per restaurant (INR 000’s)
51k 430k
37k 307k*
25k
4k
1k
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 1QFY23 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 1QFY23
Source: Company, JM Financial Source: Company, JM Financial. * Annualised
Exhibit 17. Hyperpure Gross margin trend Exhibit 18. Adj. EBITDA and EBITDA margin trends
Adj. EBITDA (INR bn, lhs) Adj. EBITDA margin (rhs)
6.9%
0.0 0%
3.6%
2.4% -0.1
-0.2 -10%
-13% -20%
-0.4 -23%
-1.2% -22% -0.4 -30%
-0.5 -0.5
-0.6
-40%
-0.8
-50%
-46%
-1.0
-60%
-1.2 -70%
-18.5% -75% -1.2
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 1QFY23 -1.4 -80%
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 1QFY23
Source: Company, JM Financial Source: Company, JM Financial
Exhibit 19. Step-by-step picker workflow for a dark-store picker from the time an order is placed
Device App
Picker App directs Picker
guides the Picker matches App
accepts the the picker Picker Picker handovers
Customer picker to scans the the displays
order on a to the next packs all marks the the order
places the the barcode of scanned delivery
hand held product the items order as to the
order location of the order product executives
smart item in order complete delivery
each order item with order details
device location executive
item placed
Source: JM Financial
Exhibit 20. Dark store location: Backyard of a commercial complex Exhibit 21. Dark store: Order pick-up zone for delivery executives
Exhibit 22. Inside Blinkit dark store – Grocery SKUs Exhibit 23. Inside Blinkit dark store – Ready to eat and Snacking SKUs
Exhibit 24. Inside Blinkit dark store – Differentiated SKUs ranging Exhibit 25. …to iPhones and other electronics such as Chargers and
from Stationary, HomeCare… Power banks
Exhibit 26. Inside Blinkit dark store – Chilled SKU assortment -1 Exhibit 27. Inside Blinkit dark store – Chilled SKU assortment - 2
Exhibit 28. Inside Blinkit dark store – Frozen Foods SKUs Exhibit 29. Inside Blinkit dark store – Confectionary SKUs
Key Risks
Key upside risks to our price target are: (1) Sharp rise in transacting users driven by
growing share of working age digitally native millennial/GenZ population; (2) Better-than-
expected AOV growth; (3) Synergy benefits from rapid expansion of Hyperpure and
dining-out businesses and (4) Significant value accretion from organic/inorganic
expansion in adjacent verticals.
Key downside risks are: (1) Slower-than-expected tech penetration in India; (2) Sharp
increase in competitive intensity; (3) Continued stakeholder conflicts such as allegations of
unfair trade practices from food services industry bodies such as NRAI, amongst others (4)
Technology failures and data breaches (5) Regulatory risks: Uncertainty around the likely
implications for tech-platforms such as Zomato if the new labour laws are implemented in
India. (6) Organic/inorganic investments fail to deliver.
APPENDIX I
Definition of ratings
Rating Meaning
Buy Total expected returns of more than 10% for large-cap stocks* and REITs and more than 15% for all other stocks, over the next twelve
months. Total expected return includes dividend yields.
Hold Price expected to move in the range of 10% downside to 10% upside from the current market price for large-cap* stocks and REITs and
in the range of 10% downside to 15% upside from the current market price for all other stocks, over the next twelve months.
Sell Price expected to move downwards by more than 10% from the current market price over the next twelve months.
* Large-cap stocks refer to securities with market capitalisation in excess of INR200bn. REIT refers to Real Estate Investment Trusts.
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