CRITICAL JOURNAL REVIEW

Prepared To Fulfill Course Assignments :

Statistika Ekonomi

Supporting Lecturer :

Didik Gunawan, SE, MM

Arranged by:

Group 8

Hafni Aulia Ritonga (23110156)

Suci Nirwana (23110111)

Yogi Pratama (23110101)

Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Ekonomi Bina Karya Kota Tebing Tinggi

TA/2024
 PREFACE

I would like to express my gratitude to the presence of Almighty God, because of

His abundant blessings, mercy and grace so that I can do and complete my assignments for
the Statistics course on time. I would not forget to express our thanks to the lecturers who
taught us how to make this journal review assignment. We also would like to thank our
friends who were willing to discuss and accept questions and input from us regarding
making this journal review. There are certainly things that are a little more useful in
reviewing our group's journal. Therefore, I hope that this journal review will provide
benefits for all of us.

The reviewer also realizes that the journal review I wrote must have shortcomings,
or something that cannot be understood, for that I, as a reviewer, apologize profusely.
Reviewers hope that this journal review can be accepted because it fulfills one of the tasks
given by the lecturer.

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS

PREFACE ............................................................................................................................................. 4
TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................... 5
CHAPTER I ........................................................................................................................................... 6
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................. 6
A. Rationalization Of The Importance Of Review Journals (CJR) ................................................ 6
B. Purpose .................................................................................................................................. 6
C. Adventage .............................................................................................................................. 7
D. D. Identity of the journal being reviewed .............................................................................. 7
CHAPTER II .......................................................................................................................................... 8
ARTICLE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ 8
A. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 8
B. Research Methods ................................................................................................................. 9
C. Results and Discussion ........................................................................................................... 9
CHAPTER III ....................................................................................................................................... 10
DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................. 10
A. ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF JOURNAL CONTENTS .......................................... 10
1. Advantages ....................................................................................................................... 10
2. Disadvantages .................................................................................................................. 10
CHAPTER IV....................................................................................................................................... 11
CLOSURE ........................................................................................................................................... 11
A. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 11
B. Recommendation ................................................................................................................. 11
BIBLIOGRAPHY.................................................................................................................................. 13

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 CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

A. Rationalization Of The Importance Of Review Journals (CJR)

The minimal development of knowledge is due to the low interest in reading

among students at this time. Criticizing journals is one way that can be done to increase
interest in reading. Criticizing a Journal (Critical Journal Review) is an activity of
reviewing a journal in order to know and understand what is presented in a journal.
Basically, journal reviews focus on evaluation (explanation, interpretation and analysis)
regarding strengths and weaknesses, what is interesting, and how the journal can change
perceptions and ways of thinking as well as considering whether the knowledge gained can
increase understanding of a particular field of study. . Apart from that, criticizing journals
can also train our abilities in analyzing and evaluating the discussion presented by the
author. So that it becomes valuable input for other creative writing processes. Criticizing a
journal cannot be done if the critic does not read the entire journal. By carrying out this
review, readers can find out the quality of the journal by comparing it with the work of the
same author or other authors and can provide input to the journal author in the form of
criticism and suggestions regarding the writing systematics, content and substance of the
journal. Apart from that, for readers, this Critical Journal Review aims to provide readers
with guidance in choosing books. After reading the results of this journal review, it is
hoped that interest will arise in reading or matching what is written in the review results.
And if you don't have time to read the contents of the journal, you can rely on the results of
the review as a source of information.

B. Purpose

1. To fulfill assignments in the Strategic Management course.

2. Improve students' ability to summarize, analyze, compare and provide criticism in
journals.
3. Strengthen readers' understanding of the importance of Strategic Management in

life.
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C. Adventage

1. As a reference on how to perfect a journal and find relevant reading sources.

2. Makes me as a writer and student more honed in criticizing a journal.
3. To increase knowledge about general physics, especially in optics.

D. Identity of the journal being reviewed

1. Article Title : Ethereum Value Forecasting Model using Autoregressive

Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)
2. Journal Name : International Journal of Advances in Social Sciences and
Humanities
3. Published Edition : 28 February 2023
4. Page : 29-35
5. Author : Didik Gunawan and Indriana Febrianti
6. Publisher : Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu ekonomi bina karya, tebing tinggi.

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 CHAPTER II

ARTICLE SUMMARY

A. INTRODUCTION

The current payment transaction instrument has faced many developments,

such as when buying an item online, it is now possible to pay for it using digital
currency. Cryptocurrency is one of the digital currency assets used for online
transactions today (Arviana, 2023). Another function of cryptocurrency is for
investment instruments. This cryptocurrency can be used as an investment
instrument because there is a lot of demand for this currency. As a result of many
who want to invest, the price of crypto currency assets will experience a significant
increase. On the other hand, there is a new demand that causes the price of the
cryptocurrency to rise. This is because people need a safer investment media that is
not affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and currently cryptocurrency is
considered a haven asset because it is one of the escape destinations for investors
during this uncertain global economic condition. This is evidenced by the price
increase in various crypto assets. Because of this, crypto assets have increased in
popularity during the COVID-19 pandemic and have resulted in investors flocking
to invest mainly due to the price of crypto assets that continues to rise up to 1000
percent, be it Bitcoin, Ethereum or other crypto assets and this also makes investors
just interested in investing in the crypto market (Utami, 2021).

As one type of cryptocurrency asset that is currently popular and widely known,
Ethereum is a peer-to-peer network or blockchain with a digital currency called
ether. Ethereum was created by Vitalik Buterin in 2013 with the aim of being a
medium through which smart contracts can be executed and used. Basically, the
purpose of Ethereum is as a world computer. The Ethereum blockchain is created as
a place to store various types of data, this data can be reached and used by
computer programs running on the Ethereum blockchain. These programs are
decentralized applications or daps (Kim et al., 2021).
Currently there are many forecasting methods with various advantages of
each. One of them is the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)

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 method, a technique that produces forecasts that depend on the unification of
historical data patterns. Arima model is a combination of AR (Autoregressive)
model is a model that describes the development of a variable through previous
actual variables and MA (Moving Average) model is a model that sees the
development of variables through previous residuals (Lilipaly et al., 2014). The
ARIMA model is often referred to as the Box-Jenkins model since it was first
launched by Box and Jenkins. ARIMA models (Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average) is a model that completely ignores independent factors in making
forecasts. ARIMA uses a wide range of dependable variable values to produce
accurate short-term forecasts (Susanti & Adji, 2020).

B. Research Methods

The research methodology employed in this study involved the utilization of

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for forecasting
Ethereum value during economic shocks. The ARIMA model was applied to
analyze historical data and predict future trends in Ethereum valuation. The
effectiveness of the model was assessed through statistical measures such as Mean
Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to evaluate the accuracy of the forecasts.S

C. Results and Discussion

The study found that the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

(ARIMA) model exhibited limitations in accurately predicting the value of
Ethereum during economic shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This lack of
accuracy may be attributed to the uncertainties introduced by the pandemic and the
evolving landscape of decentralized finance. The study recommended exploring
more advanced models, like AFRIMA, to enhance the predictive capabilities for
cryptocurrency valuation.
Further research is needed to refine forecasting accuracy in the realm of
cryptocurrency valuation, particularly during periods of economic instability. The
study's findings underscore the importance of continuously adapting forecasting
models to the dynamic nature of the cryptocurrency market and economic
conditions.
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 Overall, the study contributes to the ongoing discourse on the effectiveness of
forecasting models in predicting cryptocurrency values during economic shocks,
providing insights for future research and practical applications in the field of
cryptocurrency analysis and investment strategies.

CHAPTER III

DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS

A. ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF JOURNAL CONTENTS

1. Advantages
One of the strengths of this research is its contribution to the ongoing
discourse on the effectiveness of forecasting models in predicting
cryptocurrency values during economic shocks. By exploring the limitations of
the ARIMA model in forecasting Ethereum value amidst economic
uncertainties, the study provides valuable insights for future research and
practical applications in the field of cryptocurrency analysis and investment
strategies.

2. Disadvantages
One limitation of the study is the reliance solely on the ARIMA model for
forecasting Ethereum value, which may not fully capture the complexities and
uncertainties inherent in the cryptocurrency market, especially during economic
shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic. Expanding the analysis to incorporate
other advanced forecasting models or integrating additional variables could
provide a more comprehensive understanding of Ethereum valuation dynamics.

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 CHAPTER IV

CLOSURE

A. Conclusion

The study concluded that the ARIMA model exhibited poor forecasting
accuracy in predicting the value of Ethereum during economic shocks, particularly
the COVID-19 pandemic. The high Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of
51.94% indicated the limitations of the ARIMA model in capturing the
complexities and uncertainties of the cryptocurrency market. The authors
recommended exploring more advanced forecasting models, such as AFRIMA, to
enhance the predictive capabilities for cryptocurrency valuation. Further research is
necessary to improve forecasting accuracy and adapt to the dynamic nature of the
cryptocurrency market amidst economic instabilities.

B. Recommendation

The following recommendations for future research can be suggested :

a. Exploration of Advanced Forecasting Models : Conduct further research to
explore and compare the effectiveness of advanced forecasting models
beyond ARIMA, such as AFRIMA, GARCH, LSTM, or machine learning
algorithms, in predicting cryptocurrency values during economic
uncertainties.

b. Incorporation of Additional Variables : Integrate additional relevant

variables, such as market sentiment, regulatory changes, or technological
advancements, into the forecasting models to enhance the accuracy of
cryptocurrency valuation predictions.

c. Longitudinal Analysis : Conduct a longitudinal analysis to track the

performance of different forecasting models over time and assess their
adaptability to changing market conditions and economic shocks.

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 d. Impact of Decentralized Finance : Investigate the specific impact of
decentralized finance (DeFi) on cryptocurrency valuation and explore how
this emerging sector influences the effectiveness of forecasting models.

e. Risk Management Strategies : Develop risk management strategies based on

the insights gained from forecasting models to help investors and
stakeholders navigate the volatile cryptocurrency market during economic
uncertainties.
By addressing these recommendations in future research endeavors, scholars can
contribute to advancing the field of cryptocurrency analysis and forecasting,
ultimately providing valuable insights for investors, policymakers, and stakeholders
in navigating the dynamic landscape of digital assets during economic shocks.

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 BIBLIOGRAPHY

Gunawan, D. and Febrianti, I. (2023) ‘Ethereum Value Forecasting Model using

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)’, International Journal of
Advances in Social Sciences and Humanities, 2(1), pp. 29–35. Available at:
https://doi.org/10.56225/ijassh.v2i1.151.

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