CHAPTER 3 Constant Failure Rate Model 75

Poisson & Gamma (Section 3.5)

Redundancy (Section 3.6)

EXERCISES

3.1 A component experiences chance (CFR) failures with an MTTF of 1100 hr. Find
the following:
(a) The reliability for a 200-hr mission
(b) The design life for a 0.90 reliability
(c) The median time to failure ·
(d) The reliability for a 200-hr mission if a second, redundant (and independent)
component is added
3.2 A CFR system with A = 0.0004 has been operating for 1000 hr. What is the prob-
ability that it will fail in the next 100 hr? The next 1000 hr?
3.3 A gearbox has two independent failure modes: a constant failure rate of 0.0003 and
a linearly increasing (wear-out) failure rate given by ,l(t) = t/(5 X 105). Find the reli-
ability of the gearbox for 100 hr of operation. .
3.4 A hydraulic system is comprised of five components having the following constant
failure rates (times are in days): Ai= 0.001, ,½ =0.005, AJ =0.0007, ,l4 =0.0025, and
-l5 = 0.00001.
(a) ,Find the system MTTF and standard d_eviation.
(b) Find the system design life if a 0.99 reliability is desired.
3.5 A complex power system has a nonlinear failure rate that has historically been greater
than 0.001 failures per day. Determine an upper bound on the system's reliability for
a 60-day operating period.
3.6 A landing gear system has repetitive stresses placed on it twice a day as a result of
landings. The probability of a failure during landing is 0.0028. Determine the reli-
ability of the landing gear system over a 30-day contingency operation. What is the
probability of a failure occurring between days 10 and 20 of the operation?
3. 7 A system contains 20 identical and critical components' that will be replaced on
failure (renewal process). As a result, a constant failure rate for the system will be
observed. If a design life of10 yr with a reliability of0.99 is required, what should the
system MTTF and median time to failure be? If each component has a CFR, what
'will be the component MTTF and median time to failure?
,,
3.8 Two identical and CFR computers are placed in a redundant configuration. If the
system reliability is to be 0.95 at 3000 operating hours, determine the corresponding
MTTF (design specifications) for each computer.
 76 Part I Basic Reliability Models

•fi t·ons for a power unit consisting of three independent and serially 1
3.9 Spec1 1ca 1 . . f .h . re at d
components (failure modes) require a design life o 5 yr wit a 0.95 reliability. e
(a ) L e teach component have a constant failured rate such that
'
the first cornp
anent'
rate is twice that of the second and the thir components rate is three tirnes th s

,
of the second What should be the MTTF of each component and the sy at
. . all 1 h . h stern)
(b) If two identical power units are placed m par e , w at is t e system. reliabili ·
at 5 yr, and what is the system MTTF? ty

3.10 The time to failure of fluorescent lights in a large office building is exponentiall
distributed with a failure rate of 0.03125 hr. How ma~! spare tube_s must the buill
ing custodian maintain to have at least a 0. 9 5 probability of replacmg all failures
a given day? Assume continuous 24-hour use of the lights. on

3.11 A flashlight contains two batteries each having an MTTF of 5 operating hours (as-
sume CFR).
(a) What is the probability of battery failure occurring within the first 2 hr of
operation?
(b) If failed batteries are immediately replaced, what is the probability of more than
one failure occurring during the first 5 hr of operation?
(c) Would you expect batteries to have a constant failure rate?

3.12 Consider two redundant components having constant but different failure rates.
(a) Derive the reliability function and the MTTF.
(b) Find the reliability at 1000 hr and the MTTF of a two- component redundant
system where At(t) = 0.000356 per hour and ,¾(t) = 0.00156 per hour.
3.13 An electronic circuit board with A(t) = 0.00021 per hour is replaced on failure. What
is the probability that the third failure will occur by 10000 hours?
3.14 In reliability testing it is of interest to know how long the test must run in order to
generate a specified number of failures. A new condenser fan motor is believed to
have a constant failure rate of 3.4 failures per 100 operating hours. A single test stand
is to be used in which a motor is operated until failure and then replaced with a new
motor from production. What is the expected test time if 10 failures are desired?
3.15 Consider two identical an1 redundant CFR components having a guaranteed life of
2 months and a failure rate of0.15 failures per year. What is the system reliability for
10,000 hr of continuous operation?
3.16 Derive a general expression for R(t) and the MTTF for the two-component systern
described in Exercise 3.15.
3.17 A micro~ave link i~ a communications network has a high failure rate. Altho~g~
several pieces of eqmpment have been used in the link, the link always seems to fail a
a~out the same rate regardless of the age of the equipment and its prior maintena~ce
hiS t ory. In general, microwave transmissions are subject to fading. Selective fading
occurs when atmosp h enc · ·cond.itlons
• bend a transmission to the extent t h at 51·gnals
th
reach e receiver in slightly different paths. The merging paths can cause interfer~
ence and create data errors. o t h er c h annels m
. the microwave transmiss10n
. · are not
 CHAPTER 3 Constant Failure Rate Model · 77

affected by selective fading. Selective fading occurs when there is an electrical storm.
Flat fadi?g oc~urs ~uring fog and when the surrounding ground is very moist. It is
more senous smce 1t may last several hours and affect surrounding chaniiels. If dur-
ing _the current season, electrical storms occur about once every week and fog alerts
are issued at the rate of one every two months, what is the reliability of the link over
a 24-hour period? What assumptions, if any, are necessary?
3.18 A 60-watt outdoor lightbulb is advertised as having a~ average life (i.e., MTTF) of
1000 (operating) hours. However, experience has shown, that it will also fail on de-
mand an average of once every 120 cycles. A particular bulb is turned on once each ·
evening for an average of 10 hr. Ifit is destred to have a reliability of90 percent, what
is its design life in days?
3.19 A pump used in a water filtration system operates continuously. It has experienced
frequent failures as a result of abnormally heavy loads occurring .at random times. Its
CDF has been found to be
' '
11000
F(t) = 1- / ; t 0

where t is measured in days. If it has been op1erating without failure ·for the last
90 days, what is the probability it will fail within the next 90 days? ·
3.20 Repetitive loading. A packaging machine (cart~ner) in ; f~od pro.cessing facility
will jam with a constant probability of 0.005 per appµcatio~ (per carton). Twelve
cans of coffee are combined into a single case for shipment to buyers. The production
rate is 30 cans of coffee every minute. What is the probability (reliability) of no jams
during a 1-hr production run?
3.21 For the reliability function R(t) = e-(tl 2Q00)2, use Eqs. (3.13) and (3.14) and ~ompare
the upper and lower bounds with the actual reliabilities at 100, 200, 500, 800, 1000,
2000, 5000, and 10,000 hr. This failure distribution has an IFR with an MTTF of
1772.46.
3.22 Sources at NASA have suggested that an asteroid of sufficient size to cause destruc-
tion equivalent to the power of thous:,i.nds of hydrogen bombs coulq smash into the
Earth within the next 300,000 years. If 300,000 years is the mean time between such
catastrophic natural failure events (known as the return period) and ~ssuming an
exponential distribution, determine the probability that someone living to the age 80
will not encounter such an event.
3.23 Airbags used in automobiles for safety deploy as a result of vehicle accidents. A
stateside distributor of these airbags receives an average (mean) of four :demands
per month for replacement airbags from automotive service cent~r.s. The qistributor
must order replenishment bags from overseas, which takes 2 months. How many air-
bags should the distributor have on hand when placing a replenishment order so the
probability of a stock-out is no more than 5 percent? Assume that the time between
such accidents is exponential.
78 Part I Basic Reliability Models

3.24 A brake component has been in use for one year. During that time, 1 . .
have been recorded over an estimated 4,120,000 miles. It is assumed that25hin~1dents
failure distribution is exponential. t e t1ro.e ta
(a) What is the estimated reliability of the component over a 12,000-mile
(b) Determine the design life if a . 90 reliability is required. Warranty?
(c) Find the MTTF and the median time to failure.
(cl) If one of these components is installed on each wheel brake subsystem
the reliability of the automobile (system) over a 12,000-mile warranty;:. •;hat is
a failure of any component results in a system failure (i.e., there are.
4 allure
;8~Itle
modes).
(e) The Rely Able trucking company operates two trucks in which this com
has been installed on each wheel subsystem. Over the next year, they expponent
accumulate 12,360 miles 0_p. each truck. They have two spare components to ect t0
as a replacement in the event of a failure. What is the 1-year reliability of ~e
trucks with respect to this critical component if a system failure occurs when the
third failure occurs? e

3.25 A critical part used on a manufacturing machine has an exponential failure distribu-
tion with a mean of 1,000 (operating) days. When the part fails it is immediately re-
placed with a spare. All spares must be purchased now since the manufacturer of this
part will be terminating its production. The life of the machine is 3,650 (operating)
days. How many spares must be purchased in order to have a 99 percent reliability of
no stock out resulting in machine failure?
3.26 An electronic device consists of the following components all having CFR:
Failure Rate
Component type Count (in 1 o- 6 operating hours)
connectors 9 0.214
transformers 0.121
rectifiers 0.057
inverters 2 0.084
diodes 12 0.013
resistors 15 0.008
capacitors 24 0.051
coils 2 0.002
relays 3 0.066

. • n ' andl"kely
Determine the device's MTTF, median time to failure, standarcl cl eviatio reli-
. . .
ability over 1 year of contmuous operat10n. Which component type is. the most i
to fail?
3.27 A system has a hazard rate of .015 failures per day. If 2 more i"cl ent"ic al redundant sys-
. ? What
"lity
terns are added, resulting in 3 parallel systems, what is t h e re li ab i function.
 CHAPTER 3 Constant Failure Rate Model 79

is the reliability over 100 days? What is the MTTF? What is the reliability over 100
days without the redundancy?

3.28 A parking lot has 10 floodlights consisting of 100-watt metal halide bulbs sitting
atop 20-foot poles. The failure distribution of the bulbs is best modeled with the
two-parameter exponential distribution having a guaranteed lifetime of 1000 hours
and a failure rate of .002 failures per day. The floodlights operate for 10 hours per
day. Because of the cost to send a crew to replace bulbs, a scheduled replacement
interval must be established.
(a) Determine a replacement interval in days so that the average number of failed
bulbs equals 2 (20 percent).
(b) The parking lot is considered unsafe if half or more of the floodlights are inoper-
able. Given the replacement interval in (a), what is the probability of more than
4 bulbs having failed before replacement?
3.29 A mean of 0.074 demands per day is observed for components that can be repaired.
Repair takes 30 days. How many spare components are needed to meet demands
generated during a repair cycle with a probability of 0. 98?

SUPPLEMENTARY EXERCISES

3.30 A more general exponential reliability model may be defined by

R(t) = a-bt where a> 1 b>0

and a and b are parameters to be determined. Find the hazard rate function, and
show how this model is equivalent to R(t) = e-M. .
3.31 Show for the exponential distribution that the residual mean life is 1/A regardless of
the length of time the system has been operating.
3.32 Derive the CDF for the Erlang distribution (Eq. 3.22) from its PDF,J(YJ, where k
is assumed to be an integer:

Hint: Consult a table of integrals.

3.33 Consider the general case in problem 3.27 where there are 3 identical and redun-
dant CFR components. Derive the reliability function, hazard rate function, and the
MTTF.
3.34 For the 3-component redundant system in 3.33, plot the probability density function in
the interval (0 t 10) for A= 0.3. Compare the mode and median values to the mean.
80 Part I Basic Reliability Models

3.35 Computing Poisson probabilities. Numerical issues can arise when

Poisson probabilities particularly when both the mean (µ) and the numb colllplttii
er off: . 1g
(n) are large. Derive a recursive relationship for computing pn == at[llres

1, 2 . . . that avoids this problem. Suggestion, Find P. =f(P_ 1) Startin; ~ith':.• O,

3.36
For the 2-component redundant system (Eq. 3.24), show that the residual 1\1 1·
(Eq. 2.18) approaches 1/A as T 0 00 • 1'1'~
3.37 Show for the 2-component redundant system
(Eq. 3.24) that a == !i_
-ln(0.5)
mo d e=-~-~ 2,1., and the -
A