Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Internal migration and the COVID-19

pandemic in the Philippines

Briones, Kristine Joy and Del Mundo, Michael Dominic

August 2021

Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/111917/
MPRA Paper No. 111917, posted 11 Feb 2022 11:38 UTC
 Internal migration and the COVID-19 pandemic in
the Philippines 1
By Kristine Joy S. Briones and Michael Dominic C. Del Mundo

31 August 2021

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has created economic disruption in the Philippines, resulting in loss of income
for many workers. Because of this, many internal migrants, particularly those who continued to have
close ties to their place of origin, returned home. This report investigates internal migrants in the
country using preliminary data from the 2020 Census of Population and Housing (CPH) by the
Philippine Statistics Authority. While not completely exhaustive, the 2020 CPH may help identify
arease where the population has increased or decreased compared to expectations or population
projections. Higher-than-expected population is due to relocation of families from danger zones to
resettlement areas. Lower-than expected population, on the other hand, is seen areas where natural
calamities frequently strike and in urbanized areas usually populated by students and worker residents
before the pandemic.

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has created economic disruption in the Philippines, resulting in loss of income
for many workers. Because of this, many internal migrants, particularly those who continued to have
close ties to their place of origin, returned home. While there is no available data yet on the mobility
of internal migrants in the country during the pandemic, this report investigates internal migrants in
the country using preliminary data from the 2020 Census of Population and Housing by the Philippine
Statistics Authority. Changes in population were estimated by comparing the actual population in 2020
to the projected population from the previous census. A lower-than-expected population would mean
individuals have moved away from that location. The area has fewer than expected internal migrants
as these migrants have returned to their place of origin. However, it is essential to note that while this

1
This paper is part of the United Nations Population Fund Philippines Country Office project on estimating
excess deaths, births, and migration in the Philippines during the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors would like
to thank the Philippine Statistics Authority and Dr. Claire Dennis S. Mapa for serving as technical advisor. All
remaining errors are authors’ own. Corresponding author: kjsbriones@gmail.com

1
procedure cannot precisely quantify the number of individuals who moved but this would be a helpful
initial guide for policy and programs aimed to support dislocated individuals and workers in the
country.

Data and results

In this report, the 2020 Census of Population and Housing data from the Philippine Statistics Authority
is used together with the 2020 population projection from the previous census to estimate an
indicator of internal migration in areas in the Philippines. The country's population in 2020 was 109.0
million, higher than the projected population by 0.2 million or 0.18%. While the difference in the
national actual and projected numbers is small, gaps between actual and projected population are
different when one looks at regional numbers. In Figure 1, Region VIII's actual to projected population
gap is around -4%, which when translated to actual number of individuals equals 195 thousand fewer
individuals than projected. The National Capital Region's (NCR) actual population, on the other hand,
is 2.3% lower than projected, or 320 thousand fewer individuals than projected. This decrease in the
population in the NCR supports anecdotal evidence that people in the region have moved out during
the pandemic and relocated to neighboring CALABARZON and Central Luzon.

Figure 1. Difference of actual population from projected population, by region, count and percent

2
Figure 2. Difference of actual population from projected population, Eastern Samar Region

Natural calamities

The less-than-expected population seen in the Eastern Visayas is primarily due to natural calamities.
Being located west of the Philippine Ocean, the region is frequently visited by typhoons. Figure 2
displays the municipalities and cities in the Eastern Visayas Region and the difference between each
area's actual and projected populations. An orange color indicates that the actual value is less than
the projected value, while blue means the actual population is higher. Almost all the municipalities
and cities in the region have an actual population less than the projected population. Tacloban City,
one of the hardest hit during typhoon Yolanda in November 2013, has 8 thousand less population than
the projected. Another town, Guiuan, has a population 9% lower than the projected.

Unemployment

In April 2020, as the government imposed lockdowns and mobility restrictions due to the pandemic,
the PSA estimated 7.3 million unemployed Filipinos. Unemployment during the month was 17.7%,
higher than the previous year's unemployment rate of 5.3%. Furthermore, 13 million employed
persons were with a job but were not reporting to work. 2 NCR reported an unemployment rate of

2
https://psa.gov.ph/content/employment-situation-april-2020

3
12%, while other regions reported unemployment rates as high as 29.8% in the Bangsamoro
Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao and 27.3% in Central Luzon. The number of employed
individuals went down from 41.8 million in April 2019 to 33.8 in April 2020. There was a decrease
across all sectors, with the services sector taking the worst hit.

Employment is the primary driver of internal migration in the Philippines. 3 With the tourism industry
being badly hit during the pandemic, it is not surprising that high-tourist areas would have a lower-
than-expected population in 2020 as people seek employment elsewhere or go back to their place of
origin. San Juan in Batangas and Pagbilao in Quezon, both known for their beaches, recorded 9
thousand and 6 thousand lower-than-projected populations, respectively (see figure 3). In the Visayas,
Tagbilaran City in Bohol has a 2020 population 6 thousand lower than projected (see figure 4).
Similarly, Cebu City and its neighboring municipalities and city experienced a lower-than-projected
population in 2020.

Figure 3. Difference of actual population from projected population, Batangas and Quezon
provinces

3
https://www.uppi.upd.edu.ph/sites/default/files/pdf/COVID-19-Research-Brief-06.pdf

4
Figure 4. Difference of actual population from projected population, Cebu and Bohol provinces

Figure 5. 2015 and 2020 population of selected barangays, Quezon City near University of the
Philippines, Diliman

5
Figure 6. Difference of actual population from projected population, Bulacan and Cavite provinces

Education

Education, particularly tertiary education, is another driver of internal migration in the country.
Teenagers and young adults usually seek higher education in nearby cities where colleges and
universities are located. NCR is a recipient of an immense number of these student migrants. There
are 281 Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in NCR, excluding local universities and colleges, attended
by students from all over the country. 4 Quarantine measures and stay-at-home policies because of
COVID-19 have forced these HEIs to implement alternative learning forms to continue education
despite the pandemic. With classes now held online, these students have opted to return to their
home provinces and continue online education while being with their families. Figure 5 is an example
of how the migration of students back to their original residences affected the population of barangays
near HEIs. The 2020 population in barangays U.P. Village, Teachers Village East and West, and Sikatuna
Village in Quezon City near the University of the Philippines in Diliman is less than their 2015
population. This drop in the population sums to more than 5 thousand individuals.

4
https://ched.gov.ph/list-of-higher-education-institutions-2/

6
Relocation

From 2016 to 2019, the National Housing Authority has made available at least 2 thousand housing
units in Pandi, Bulacan, 5 thousand housing units in Norzagaray, Bulacan, and more than 4 thousand
housing units in Naic, Cavite. 5 These units were distributed to informal settler families in danger areas,
and families affected by government construction sites. Figure 6 shows that these three areas have
more-than-expected populations: 38 thousand more individuals in Pandi, 20 thousand in Norzagaray,
and 22 thousand in Naic. These are just a few relocation sites intended to house families in and out of
NCR. Other relocation sites within NCR include Batasan Hills and Pasong Tamo in Quezon City, Bignay
in Valenzuela, Tanza in Navotas City, Manggahan in Pasig City, Tondo in Manila, Camarin in Caloocan
and Fabella road in Mandaluyong. Outside NCR resettlement areas include San Ildefonso, San Jose Del
Monte and San Miguel in Bulacan, Mariveles in Bataan, Masantol in Pampanga, Calamba in Laguna,
and Antipolo City, Baras, Morong, and Tanay in Rizal.

Discussion and policy implications

Knowing the number and demographics of a locality's population is essential in policymaking.

However, because of the COVID-19 pandemic estimating the number of individuals in the
municipalities and cities has become challenging as internal migrants return to their home residences.
Using the initial results of the 2020 Census of Population and Housing of the Philippine Statistics
Authority, this report helps identify areas where the population has increased or decreased compared
to expectations or population projections.

In the Philippines, several factors are seen as a reason for a higher-than-expected population. Even
before the pandemic, the government has relocated families from danger areas, particularly in NCR,
to safer areas either within their same city or outside NCR. Because of this, there are visible increases
in population in resettlement areas, particularly in Pandi and Norzagaray in Bulacan and Naic in
Laguna. A lower-than-expected population, on the other hand, is seen in areas where natural

5
https://nha.gov.ph/annual-reports/

7
calamities frequently strike, such as the typhoon-prone areas of Eastern Visayas. Furthermore, highly
urbanized areas usually populated due to many student and worker residences are now less populated
than expected. This event is not only felt in NCR but other cities throughout the country as well.

It is of importance that local government units (LGUs) are updated on the number of citizens living in
their jurisdiction. Their Internal Revenue Allotment (IRA) is partly based on their population. Thus, a
significant decrease in their population would impact their share of revenues from the national
government. Conversely, it is crucial that LGUs that experienced an increase in their population be
supported by the national government to ensure that health and economic services, among others,
are given to dislocated individuals and workers.

This report aimed to provide a glimpse of the movement of internal migrants in the country as of 2020.
It is recommended that a more detailed look at internal migrants be investigated once demographic
data from the 2020 Census becomes available. Furthermore, the issue of back migration or cases when
migrants go back to their place of work should be investigated as well. In this case, the Community-
Based Monitoring System (CBMS) currently being developed and updated would be of great help. The
possibility of another census round after the pandemic should also be explored.

References

National Housing Authority (2014). 2014 Annual Report. Office of the President, National Housing
Authority. https://nha.gov.ph/annual-reports/

National Housing Authority (2015). 2015 Annual Report. Office of the President, National Housing
Authority. https://nha.gov.ph/annual-reports/

National Housing Authority (2016). 2016 Annual Report. Office of the President, National Housing
Authority. https://nha.gov.ph/annual-reports/

National Housing Authority (2017). 2017 Annual Report. Office of the President, National Housing
Authority. https://nha.gov.ph/annual-reports/

National Housing Authority (2018). 2018 Annual Report. Office of the President, National Housing
Authority. https://nha.gov.ph/annual-reports/

National Housing Authority (2019). 2019 Annual Report. Office of the President, National Housing
Authority. https://nha.gov.ph/annual-reports/

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National Housing Authority (2020). 2020 Annual Report. Office of the President, National Housing
Authority. https://nha.gov.ph/annual-reports/

Philippine Statistics Authority (2020). Highlights of the April 2020 Labor Force Survey.
https://psa.gov.ph/content/employment-situation-april-2020

University of the Philippines Population Institute (2020). Beyond the Numbers: COVID-19 and the
Philippine Population. Research Brief No. 6