CHAPTER 9

Sunday, 24 November 2024 2:41 pm

PROJECT SCHEDULING BASED

ON EXPECTED ACTIVITY TIMES

Ex.
ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION IMMEDIATE EXPECTED
PREDECESSOR ACTIVITY
TIME
A
B
C
D
E

IMMEDIATE PREDECESSOR
- Identifies the activities that must be completed
immediately prior to the the start of that activity

THERE MIGHT BE ___ WEEKS IN TOTAL TO FINISH THE

PROJECT BUT SOME TASKS CAN BE DONE
SIMULTANEOUSLY

PATH
- Sequence off connected noodes that leads ffrom
the start node to finish node

CRITICAL PATH
- To determine project completion time, we have to
analyze network and identify what is called the
critical path
- The critical path is the longest path of all possible
paths to complete the project
- If activities on the path are delayed, the entire
project will be delayed

HOW TO DETERMINE THE CRITICAL PATH

1. Find the earliest start time and the latest start time for
all activities

This approach will utilize FORWARD PASS

ES= Earliest start time for an activity

EF= Earliest finish time for an activity

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 EF= Earliest finish time for an activity
T = Expected activity time

Earliest Finish for an activity is:

EF = ES + t

*If a task has more than one predecessors, you will just
use the one with the largest finish time.

Ex. Task A starts as soon as the project starts so Early

start is 0 and expected activity time is the time allotted
to it which is 5 weeks. So EF = 5

To compute for the earliest start time of the activities,

you just have to get the earliest finish of its immediate
predecessor.

FORWARD PASS
- is used to get the total earliest time to finish the
project

BACKWARD PASS
- To get the latest finish time of the project and the
activities

2. GET THE LATEST START FOR THE ACTIVITIES/TASKS

LS = LF + T

*Latest finish time for an activity is the smallest of the

latest start times for all activities that immediately
follow the activity

3. GET THE SLACK ASSOCIATED WITH EACH ACTIVITY

Slack
- Length of time an activity can be delayed without
increasing the project completion time

SLACK = LS - ES OR LF - EF

4. FIND CRITICAL PATH

Critical activities
- ACTIVITIES WITH ZERO SLACK

HOW DO WE DETEMRINE THE CIRITCAL PATH

- The critical path is the sequence of the tasks with
zero slack

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 PROJECT SCHEDULING BASED ON
UNCERTAIN ACTIVITY TIMES

- In some cases where managers deal with having to do tasks that they don't
have prior experience on, they won't have the data necessart to provide
accurate time estimates for each activity

IN ORDER TO INCORPORATE UNCERTAIN ACTIVITY TIMES INTO THE ANALYSIS, IT IS

NECESSARY TO OBTAIN THREE TIME ESTIMATES FOR EACH ACTIVITY:
1. Optimistic Time
- Denoted as a, it is the minimum activity time if everything progresses ideally

2. Most probable time

- Denoted as m, it is the most probable activity time under normal conditions

3. Pessimistic time
- Denoted as b, it is the maximum activity time if substantial delays are
encountered

STEPS TO FIND CRITICAL PATH WITH UNCERTAIN ACTIVITY

TIMES (PERT)
1. Define activities and time estimates
- Optimistic Time (O)
- Most Likely Time (M)
- Pessimistic Time (P)

Let’s assume we have a project with 4 activities (A, B, C, and D) with the following
time estimates:
Activity Optimistic Time (O) Most Likely Time (M) Pessimistic Time (P)
A 2 days 4 days 6 days
B 3 days 5 days 7 days
C 1 day 3 days 5 days
D 4 days 6 days 8 days

2. Calculate the Expected Time (TE) For Each Activity

We can calculate the Expected time of each activity using its estimated Optimistic
time, most likely time, and pessimistic times using the PERT FORMULA

This formula gives a weighted average, giving more importance to the most likely
time (M) which explains why it is multiplied by 4.

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 time (M) which explains why it is multiplied by 4.

3. Build Network Diagram

- Create a network diagram showing the sequence of activities and their

dependencies
- Let's say for instance that for activities B and C to start, Activity A must be
finished first, and for activity D to be done, activities B and C must be
finished first.

Activity A → Activity B
Activity A → Activity C
Activity B → Activity D
Activity C → Activity D

4. Calculate Early Start (ES) and Early Finish (EF) Times

• ES for the first activity is 0 (since it starts at the beginning).

• EF for any activity is calculated as: EF = ES+TE
• The Earliest Start for the following activity is the Earliest Finish for the previous
activity
• If activity has two immediate predecessors, then its earliest start is the largest
Earliest finish of the two

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 5. Calculate Late Start (LS) and Late Finish (LF) Times

• This is done through a BACKWARD PASS starting from the very last activity

• LF for the last activity is the project’s total duration (from the EF of the last
activity).
• Latest Finish of an activity is the Latest Start of its following activity
• If the activity leads to TWO activities, then its Latest finish is the smallest Latest
Start between the two

• LS for any activity is: LS=LF−TE

6. CALCULATE SLACK FOR EACH ACTIVITY

The Slack or Float for each activity is the amount of time an activity can be
delayed without delaying the project.

- ACTIVIITES WITH ZERO SLACK ARE PART OF THE CRITICAL PATH

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 Slack = LS - ES or Slack = LF - EF

7. IDENTIFY CRITICAL PATH

The Critical Path is the longest path in the project network, and it determines the
shortest possible duration for completing the project. Activities with zero slack
make up the critical path.

In this example, the critical path is:

• A→B→D
The total project duration is 15 days, and any delay in activities on the critical path
(A, B, D) will delay the entire project.

HOW TO FIND VARIABILITY IN COMPLETION TIME

- In PERT, the variance of each activity's time is calculated using the pessimistic time (P),
Optimistic time (O), and most likely time (M).
- This formula to calculate the variance of EACH activity is

the variability is based on the difference between the optimistic and pessimistic estimates.

Example Calculation of Variability for an Activity:

Let’s assume we have an activity A with the following time estimates:
Optimistic time (O) = 2 days
Most likely time (M) = 4 days
Pessimistic time (P) = 6 days

The Variance of activity A is 0.4444 days.

VARIANCE OF CRITICAL PATH

- If you are calculating the total variance for the project’s critical path, you sum the

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 - If you are calculating the total variance for the project’s critical path, you sum the
variances of the individual activities on the critical path.

Example:
If a project consists of three activities (A, B, and C), and their variances are:
• Variance of A = 0.4444
• Variance of B = 0.25
• Variance of C = 0.36
Total Variance for the project = 1.0544

PROBABILITY OF CRITICAL PATH BEING COMPLETED BY A

SPECIFIC TIME
- Using probability distribution, we can follow the steps below based on the PERT
methodology
- PERT assumes that activity times follow a normal distribution which allows us to use
the z-score formula to calculate probabilities

Example:
Let’s work through the steps with the same activities as before, assuming we have the
following information:
Activity A:
• Optimistic Time (O) = 2 days
• Most Likely Time (M) = 4 days
• Pessimistic Time (P) = 6 days
Activity B:
• Optimistic Time (O) = 3 days
• Most Likely Time (M) = 5 days
• Pessimistic Time (P) = 7 days
Activity C:
• Optimistic Time (O) = 4 days
• Most Likely Time (M) = 6 days
• Pessimistic Time (P) = 8 days

2. Determine Expected Completion Time and Standard Deviation

- For each activity, we will calculate ET and SD

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3. Calculate Expected Time and Standard Deviation for the critical path
- We will find the sum of the expected times for the activities on the criitcal path
- We will also sum variances of the critical path activities to get total variance
- Take square root of variance to find the total SD

4. the z-score formula to find probability

A Z-score of 0 corresponds to the mean of the distribution, meaning there is no

deviation from the expected completion time.

5. Find the Probability Using the Z-Table: Once we have the Z-score, we can use
a Z-table (standard normal distribution table) to find the probability

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a Z-table (standard normal distribution table) to find the probability
corresponding to that Z-score.

A Z-score of 0 corresponds to the mean of the distribution, meaning there is

no deviation from the expected completion time.

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