{

"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 4,
"id": "f53fcbbf-a62d-4aa2-be7b-9aa4e17a5e48",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"import yfinance as yf\n",
"import pandas as pd\n",
"import os"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 5,
"id": "0c4d2b51-1187-44c7-a281-da84d0381dd5",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"if os.path.exists(\"sp500.csv\"):\n",
" sp500 = pd.read_csv(\"sp500.csv\", index_col=0)\n",
"else:\n",
" sp500 = yf.Ticker(\"^GSPC\")\n",
" sp500 = sp500.history(period=\"max\")\n",
" sp500.to_csv(\"sp500.csv\")"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 6,
"id": "f605b43c-8db9-43ae-b2d4-29fc6048b8aa",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"sp500.index = pd.to_datetime(sp500.index)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 7,
"id": "fbb162ce-7d18-4c14-b349-9014c0d6db42",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
" vertical-align: middle;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
" vertical-align: top;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe thead th {\n",
" text-align: right;\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Open</th>\n",
" <th>High</th>\n",
" <th>Low</th>\n",
" <th>Close</th>\n",
" <th>Volume</th>\n",
" <th>Dividends</th>\n",
" <th>Stock Splits</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Date</th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1950-01-03</th>\n",
" <td>16.660000</td>\n",
" <td>16.660000</td>\n",
" <td>16.660000</td>\n",
" <td>16.660000</td>\n",
" <td>1260000</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1950-01-04</th>\n",
" <td>16.850000</td>\n",
" <td>16.850000</td>\n",
" <td>16.850000</td>\n",
" <td>16.850000</td>\n",
" <td>1890000</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1950-01-05</th>\n",
" <td>16.930000</td>\n",
" <td>16.930000</td>\n",
" <td>16.930000</td>\n",
" <td>16.930000</td>\n",
" <td>2550000</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1950-01-06</th>\n",
" <td>16.980000</td>\n",
" <td>16.980000</td>\n",
" <td>16.980000</td>\n",
" <td>16.980000</td>\n",
" <td>2010000</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1950-01-09</th>\n",
" <td>17.080000</td>\n",
" <td>17.080000</td>\n",
" <td>17.080000</td>\n",
" <td>17.080000</td>\n",
" <td>2520000</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>...</th>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2022-09-06</th>\n",
" <td>3930.889893</td>\n",
" <td>3942.550049</td>\n",
" <td>3886.750000</td>\n",
" <td>3908.189941</td>\n",
" <td>2209800080</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2022-09-07</th>\n",
" <td>3909.429932</td>\n",
" <td>3987.889893</td>\n",
" <td>3906.030029</td>\n",
" <td>3979.870117</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2022-09-08</th>\n",
" <td>3959.939941</td>\n",
" <td>4010.500000</td>\n",
" <td>3944.810059</td>\n",
" <td>4006.179932</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
 " <th>2022-09-09</th>\n",
" <td>4022.939941</td>\n",
" <td>4076.810059</td>\n",
" <td>4022.939941</td>\n",
" <td>4067.360107</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2022-09-12</th>\n",
" <td>4083.669922</td>\n",
" <td>4119.279785</td>\n",
" <td>4083.669922</td>\n",
" <td>4107.279785</td>\n",
" <td>1602969000</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"<p>18292 rows × 7 columns</p>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" Open High Low Close Volume
\\\n",
"Date
\n",
"1950-01-03 16.660000 16.660000 16.660000 16.660000 1260000
\n",
"1950-01-04 16.850000 16.850000 16.850000 16.850000 1890000
\n",
"1950-01-05 16.930000 16.930000 16.930000 16.930000 2550000
\n",
"1950-01-06 16.980000 16.980000 16.980000 16.980000 2010000
\n",
"1950-01-09 17.080000 17.080000 17.080000 17.080000 2520000
\n",
"... ... ... ... ... ...
\n",
"2022-09-06 3930.889893 3942.550049 3886.750000 3908.189941 2209800080
\n",
"2022-09-07 3909.429932 3987.889893 3906.030029 3979.870117 0
\n",
"2022-09-08 3959.939941 4010.500000 3944.810059 4006.179932 0
\n",
"2022-09-09 4022.939941 4076.810059 4022.939941 4067.360107 0
\n",
"2022-09-12 4083.669922 4119.279785 4083.669922 4107.279785 1602969000
\n",
"\n",
" Dividends Stock Splits \n",
"Date \n",
"1950-01-03 0 0 \n",
"1950-01-04 0 0 \n",
"1950-01-05 0 0 \n",
"1950-01-06 0 0 \n",
"1950-01-09 0 0 \n",
 "... ... ... \n",
"2022-09-06 0 0 \n",
"2022-09-07 0 0 \n",
"2022-09-08 0 0 \n",
"2022-09-09 0 0 \n",
"2022-09-12 0 0 \n",
"\n",
"[18292 rows x 7 columns]"
]
},
"execution_count": 7,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"sp500"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 8,
"id": "3e7ddd5b-9c2d-4c13-8210-72a4adb61159",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"<AxesSubplot:xlabel='Date'>"
]
},
"execution_count": 8,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
},
{
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w8kbKm7EnRnxgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\n",
"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 640x480 with 1 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"sp500.plot.line(y=\"Close\", use_index=True)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 9,
"id": "1b02b64d-9eef-489f-894d-26f9e6792db5",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"del sp500[\"Dividends\"]\n",
"del sp500[\"Stock Splits\"]"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 10,
"id": "f25e1594-1cd2-47ae-bb50-a0d17ac35c69",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"sp500[\"Tomorrow\"] = sp500[\"Close\"].shift(-1)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 11,
 "id": "871b16a1-9d77-40c8-8564-1947b438a113",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"sp500[\"Target\"] = (sp500[\"Tomorrow\"] > sp500[\"Close\"]).astype(int)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 12,
"id": "79e58626-3be6-45f7-b1aa-1786593e3bd6",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"sp500 = sp500.loc[\"1990-01-01\":].copy()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 41,
"id": "ad95d689-520a-4141-ab6e-a0fe3f9697a6",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"RandomForestClassifier(min_samples_split=100, random_state=1)"
]
},
"execution_count": 41,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier\n",
"\n",
"model = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=100, min_samples_split=100,
random_state=1)\n",
"\n",
"train = sp500.iloc[:-100]\n",
"test = sp500.iloc[-100:]\n",
"\n",
"predictors = [\"Close\", \"Volume\", \"Open\", \"High\", \"Low\"]\n",
"model.fit(train[predictors], train[\"Target\"])"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 42,
"id": "c0837787-5d4e-4a20-ad0d-3a546bc23cdb",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"0.47058823529411764"
]
},
 "execution_count": 42,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"from sklearn.metrics import precision_score\n",
"\n",
"preds = model.predict(test[predictors])\n",
"preds = pd.Series(preds, index=test.index)\n",
"precision_score(test[\"Target\"], preds)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 43,
"id": "e33e349f-8365-4282-91db-3b5824e83262",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"<AxesSubplot:xlabel='Date'>"
]
},
"execution_count": 43,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
},
{
"data": {
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"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 432x288 with 1 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {
"needs_background": "light"
},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"combined = pd.concat([test[\"Target\"], preds], axis=1)\n",
"combined.plot()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 44,
"id": "d4049497-0ee7-4399-83ab-ef61ccf71133",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"def predict(train, test, predictors, model):\n",
" model.fit(train[predictors], train[\"Target\"])\n",
" preds = model.predict(test[predictors])\n",
" preds = pd.Series(preds, index=test.index, name=\"Predictions\")\n",
" combined = pd.concat([test[\"Target\"], preds], axis=1)\n",
" return combined"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 45,
"id": "ca97d93a-6841-49ef-8f91-25a713baef16",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"def backtest(data, model, predictors, start=2500, step=250):\n",
" all_predictions = []\n",
 "\n",
" for i in range(start, data.shape[0], step):\n",
" train = data.iloc[0:i].copy()\n",
" test = data.iloc[i:(i+step)].copy()\n",
" predictions = predict(train, test, predictors, model)\n",
" all_predictions.append(predictions)\n",
" \n",
" return pd.concat(all_predictions)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 46,
"id": "8a75261f-d2de-4bc6-9364-54d520c63985",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"predictions = backtest(sp500, model, predictors)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 47,
"id": "439d8704-c55d-4d1f-a709-acdc0f485e87",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"0 3337\n",
"1 2401\n",
"Name: Predictions, dtype: int64"
]
},
"execution_count": 47,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"predictions[\"Predictions\"].value_counts()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 48,
"id": "bf105e8f-6be5-4494-9658-233761f1c4f4",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"0.534777176176593"
]
},
"execution_count": 48,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
 ],
"source": [
"precision_score(predictions[\"Target\"], predictions[\"Predictions\"])"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 49,
"id": "eff25a20-375e-444a-b5d3-b558753fc817",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"1 0.536075\n",
"0 0.463925\n",
"Name: Target, dtype: float64"
]
},
"execution_count": 49,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"predictions[\"Target\"].value_counts() / predictions.shape[0]"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 50,
"id": "ed05ece5-f1f4-443a-b179-33c7e709ea4d",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"horizons = [2,5,60,250,1000]\n",
"new_predictors = []\n",
"\n",
"for horizon in horizons:\n",
" rolling_averages = sp500.rolling(horizon).mean()\n",
" \n",
" ratio_column = f\"Close_Ratio_{horizon}\"\n",
" sp500[ratio_column] = sp500[\"Close\"] / rolling_averages[\"Close\"]\n",
" \n",
" trend_column = f\"Trend_{horizon}\"\n",
" sp500[trend_column] = sp500.shift(1).rolling(horizon).sum()[\"Target\"]\
n",
" \n",
" new_predictors+= [ratio_column, trend_column]"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 53,
"id": "6c04ab2d-64ff-4f56-a206-605dcce30372",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"sp500 = sp500.dropna(subset=sp500.columns[sp500.columns != \"Tomorrow\"])"
 ]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 55,
"id": "fd7b2523-85a4-477d-975d-9cf64b1ff557",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
" vertical-align: middle;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
" vertical-align: top;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe thead th {\n",
" text-align: right;\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Open</th>\n",
" <th>High</th>\n",
" <th>Low</th>\n",
" <th>Close</th>\n",
" <th>Volume</th>\n",
" <th>Tomorrow</th>\n",
" <th>Target</th>\n",
" <th>Close_Ratio_2</th>\n",
" <th>Trend_2</th>\n",
" <th>Close_Ratio_5</th>\n",
" <th>Trend_5</th>\n",
" <th>Close_Ratio_60</th>\n",
" <th>Trend_60</th>\n",
" <th>Close_Ratio_250</th>\n",
" <th>Trend_250</th>\n",
" <th>Close_Ratio_1000</th>\n",
" <th>Trend_1000</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Date</th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1993-12-14</th>\n",
" <td>465.730011</td>\n",
" <td>466.119995</td>\n",
" <td>462.459991</td>\n",
" <td>463.059998</td>\n",
" <td>275050000</td>\n",
" <td>461.839996</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0.997157</td>\n",
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.996617</td>\n",
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.000283</td>\n",
" <td>32.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.028047</td>\n",
" <td>127.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.176082</td>\n",
" <td>512.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1993-12-15</th>\n",
" <td>463.059998</td>\n",
" <td>463.690002</td>\n",
" <td>461.839996</td>\n",
" <td>461.839996</td>\n",
" <td>331770000</td>\n",
" <td>463.339996</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0.998681</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.995899</td>\n",
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.997329</td>\n",
" <td>32.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.025151</td>\n",
" <td>126.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.172676</td>\n",
" <td>512.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1993-12-16</th>\n",
" <td>461.859985</td>\n",
" <td>463.980011</td>\n",
" <td>461.859985</td>\n",
" <td>463.339996</td>\n",
" <td>284620000</td>\n",
" <td>466.380005</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>1.001621</td>\n",
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.999495</td>\n",
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.000311</td>\n",
" <td>32.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.028274</td>\n",
" <td>127.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.176163</td>\n",
" <td>513.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1993-12-17</th>\n",
" <td>463.339996</td>\n",
" <td>466.380005</td>\n",
" <td>463.339996</td>\n",
" <td>466.380005</td>\n",
" <td>363750000</td>\n",
" <td>465.850006</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1.003270</td>\n",
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.004991</td>\n",
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.006561</td>\n",
" <td>32.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.034781</td>\n",
" <td>128.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.183537</td>\n",
" <td>514.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1993-12-20</th>\n",
" <td>466.380005</td>\n",
" <td>466.899994</td>\n",
" <td>465.529999</td>\n",
" <td>465.850006</td>\n",
" <td>255900000</td>\n",
" <td>465.299988</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0.999431</td>\n",
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.003784</td>\n",
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.005120</td>\n",
" <td>32.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.033359</td>\n",
" <td>128.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.181856</td>\n",
" <td>513.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>...</th>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2022-09-06</th>\n",
" <td>3930.889893</td>\n",
" <td>3942.550049</td>\n",
" <td>3886.750000</td>\n",
" <td>3908.189941</td>\n",
" <td>2209800080</td>\n",
" <td>3979.870117</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0.997948</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.989893</td>\n",
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.982136</td>\n",
" <td>26.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.902791</td>\n",
" <td>120.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.103594</td>\n",
" <td>542.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2022-09-07</th>\n",
" <td>3909.429932</td>\n",
" <td>3987.889893</td>\n",
" <td>3906.030029</td>\n",
" <td>3979.870117</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>4006.179932</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>1.009087</td>\n",
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.008370</td>\n",
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.999819</td>\n",
" <td>27.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.919786</td>\n",
" <td>121.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.123489</td>\n",
" <td>543.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2022-09-08</th>\n",
" <td>3959.939941</td>\n",
" <td>4010.500000</td>\n",
" <td>3944.810059</td>\n",
" <td>4006.179932</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
 " <td>4067.360107</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>1.003294</td>\n",
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.012411</td>\n",
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.005349</td>\n",
" <td>28.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.926253</td>\n",
" <td>122.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.130564</td>\n",
" <td>543.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2022-09-09</th>\n",
" <td>4022.939941</td>\n",
" <td>4076.810059</td>\n",
" <td>4022.939941</td>\n",
" <td>4067.360107</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>4107.279785</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>1.007578</td>\n",
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.022676</td>\n",
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.019287</td>\n",
" <td>29.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.940748</td>\n",
" <td>122.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.147454</td>\n",
" <td>543.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2022-09-12</th>\n",
" <td>4083.669922</td>\n",
" <td>4119.279785</td>\n",
" <td>4083.669922</td>\n",
" <td>4107.279785</td>\n",
" <td>1602969000</td>\n",
" <td>NaN</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1.004883</td>\n",
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.023296</td>\n",
" <td>4.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.027929</td>\n",
" <td>29.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.950276</td>\n",
" <td>123.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.158331</td>\n",
" <td>543.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"<p>7238 rows × 17 columns</p>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
 " Open High Low Close Volume
\\\n",
"Date
\n",
"1993-12-14 465.730011 466.119995 462.459991 463.059998 275050000
\n",
"1993-12-15 463.059998 463.690002 461.839996 461.839996 331770000
\n",
"1993-12-16 461.859985 463.980011 461.859985 463.339996 284620000
\n",
"1993-12-17 463.339996 466.380005 463.339996 466.380005 363750000
\n",
"1993-12-20 466.380005 466.899994 465.529999 465.850006 255900000
\n",
"... ... ... ... ... ...
\n",
"2022-09-06 3930.889893 3942.550049 3886.750000 3908.189941 2209800080
\n",
"2022-09-07 3909.429932 3987.889893 3906.030029 3979.870117 0
\n",
"2022-09-08 3959.939941 4010.500000 3944.810059 4006.179932 0
\n",
"2022-09-09 4022.939941 4076.810059 4022.939941 4067.360107 0
\n",
"2022-09-12 4083.669922 4119.279785 4083.669922 4107.279785 1602969000
\n",
"\n",
" Tomorrow Target Close_Ratio_2 Trend_2 Close_Ratio_5 \\\
n",
"Date \
n",
"1993-12-14 461.839996 0 0.997157 1.0 0.996617 \
n",
"1993-12-15 463.339996 1 0.998681 0.0 0.995899 \
n",
"1993-12-16 466.380005 1 1.001621 1.0 0.999495 \
n",
"1993-12-17 465.850006 0 1.003270 2.0 1.004991 \
n",
"1993-12-20 465.299988 0 0.999431 1.0 1.003784 \
n",
"... ... ... ... ... ... \
n",
"2022-09-06 3979.870117 1 0.997948 0.0 0.989893 \
n",
"2022-09-07 4006.179932 1 1.009087 1.0 1.008370 \
n",
"2022-09-08 4067.360107 1 1.003294 2.0 1.012411 \
n",
"2022-09-09 4107.279785 1 1.007578 2.0 1.022676 \
n",
"2022-09-12 NaN 0 1.004883 2.0 1.023296 \
n",
"\n",
" Trend_5 Close_Ratio_60 Trend_60 Close_Ratio_250
Trend_250 \\\n",
"Date
\n",
 "1993-12-14 1.0 1.000283 32.0 1.028047 127.0
\n",
"1993-12-15 1.0 0.997329 32.0 1.025151 126.0
\n",
"1993-12-16 2.0 1.000311 32.0 1.028274 127.0
\n",
"1993-12-17 3.0 1.006561 32.0 1.034781 128.0
\n",
"1993-12-20 2.0 1.005120 32.0 1.033359 128.0
\n",
"... ... ... ... ... ...
\n",
"2022-09-06 1.0 0.982136 26.0 0.902791 120.0
\n",
"2022-09-07 2.0 0.999819 27.0 0.919786 121.0
\n",
"2022-09-08 3.0 1.005349 28.0 0.926253 122.0
\n",
"2022-09-09 3.0 1.019287 29.0 0.940748 122.0
\n",
"2022-09-12 4.0 1.027929 29.0 0.950276 123.0
\n",
"\n",
" Close_Ratio_1000 Trend_1000 \n",
"Date \n",
"1993-12-14 1.176082 512.0 \n",
"1993-12-15 1.172676 512.0 \n",
"1993-12-16 1.176163 513.0 \n",
"1993-12-17 1.183537 514.0 \n",
"1993-12-20 1.181856 513.0 \n",
"... ... ... \n",
"2022-09-06 1.103594 542.0 \n",
"2022-09-07 1.123489 543.0 \n",
"2022-09-08 1.130564 543.0 \n",
"2022-09-09 1.147454 543.0 \n",
"2022-09-12 1.158331 543.0 \n",
"\n",
"[7238 rows x 17 columns]"
]
},
"execution_count": 55,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"sp500"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 56,
"id": "283be581-dbe1-4f02-8851-ff1a027b4104",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"model = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=200, min_samples_split=50,
random_state=1)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 57,
"id": "a843303c-a247-4f6d-9505-cc711ca95afa",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"def predict(train, test, predictors, model):\n",
" model.fit(train[predictors], train[\"Target\"])\n",
" preds = model.predict_proba(test[predictors])[:,1]\n",
" preds[preds >=.6] = 1\n",
" preds[preds <.6] = 0\n",
" preds = pd.Series(preds, index=test.index, name=\"Predictions\")\n",
" combined = pd.concat([test[\"Target\"], preds], axis=1)\n",
" return combined"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 58,
"id": "fb820946-1275-4914-b6a8-355e96f315b6",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"predictions = backtest(sp500, model, new_predictors)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 59,
"id": "a73e1816-283a-47ac-af43-4550b80307ef",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"0.0 3933\n",
"1.0 805\n",
"Name: Predictions, dtype: int64"
]
},
"execution_count": 59,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"predictions[\"Predictions\"].value_counts()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 60,
"id": "14acc336-4991-4189-bb16-4a8bf53056e1",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
 "text/plain": [
"0.5701863354037268"
]
},
"execution_count": 60,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"precision_score(predictions[\"Target\"], predictions[\"Predictions\"])"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 61,
"id": "21b3d365-2157-4229-a785-ae687da0f21f",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"1 0.546855\n",
"0 0.453145\n",
"Name: Target, dtype: float64"
]
},
"execution_count": 61,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"predictions[\"Target\"].value_counts() / predictions.shape[0]"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 62,
"id": "ef08fff5-0dd5-4d86-9d0d-8ce9f7443865",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
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"\n",
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"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Target</th>\n",
" <th>Predictions</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Date</th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2003-11-14</th>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2003-11-17</th>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2003-11-18</th>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2003-11-19</th>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2003-11-20</th>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>...</th>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2022-09-06</th>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2022-09-07</th>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2022-09-08</th>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
 " <tr>\n",
" <th>2022-09-09</th>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2022-09-12</th>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"<p>4738 rows × 2 columns</p>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" Target Predictions\n",
"Date \n",
"2003-11-14 0 0.0\n",
"2003-11-17 0 1.0\n",
"2003-11-18 1 1.0\n",
"2003-11-19 0 0.0\n",
"2003-11-20 1 1.0\n",
"... ... ...\n",
"2022-09-06 1 0.0\n",
"2022-09-07 1 0.0\n",
"2022-09-08 1 0.0\n",
"2022-09-09 1 0.0\n",
"2022-09-12 0 0.0\n",
"\n",
"[4738 rows x 2 columns]"
]
},
"execution_count": 62,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"predictions"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"id": "b2d35fd3-7038-4e69-bcbd-bde42c1f5e33",
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"outputs": [],
"source": []
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