Thayer President-Elect Trump's Foreign Policy - 2
Uploaded by
Carlyle Alan ThayerThayer President-Elect Trump's Foreign Policy - 2
Uploaded by
Carlyle Alan ThayerThayer Consultancy Background Brief
ABN # 65 648 097 123
carl@thayerconsultancy.com.au President-Elect Trump’s Foreign
Policy – 2
November 16, 2024
We request your assessment of the results of the U.S. presidential election and likely
policies of the Trump Administration that will affect the Indo-Pacific, Russia-Ukraine
War and armed conflicts in the Middle East.
ANSWER: Donald Trump won a resounding victory in the U.S. presidential elections
held on 5 November. Although he won a small majority of the votes cast more
importantly he won a commanding majority of the Electoral College votes. Trump’s
Republican Party won control of both houses of the Congress, the Senate and House
of Representatives.
Trump will be inaugurated on 20 January 2025. His primary task is to get Senate
approval for his nominations to the Cabinet and other statutory bodies requiring
Senate confirmation. This process usually take months, particularly in cases involving
controversial nominations.
Trump is seeking to use a special rule to have his nominations approved during a
recess of Congress. This means Cabinet Secretaries could serve a year without Senate
confirmation. At the end of the year they must be confirmed to remain in office.
Trump has nominated loyal supporters to key posts affecting foreign policy: Senator
Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defence, Mike Walz
as National Security Advisor, Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, and
Elise Stefanik as Ambassador to the United Nations.
Foreign policy under the second Trump Administration will break ranks with that of
the Biden Administration. American foreign policy will be Trump’s personal foreign
policy. Trump is stridently America First and transactional in his approach. Trump has
no ideology and set of beliefs other than how to make a deal that he believes suits
America’s interests as he sees them.
Trump has four main foreign policy priorities. The first is to obtain a ceasefire and
negotiated settlement of the war in Ukraine. It is no secret that Ukraine will be a
remain a divided nation and denied NATO membership. Trump is aiming for a summit
meeting with Putin to tout his diplomatic success. Second, Trump will continue to
support Israel in its attack on Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Third, Trump
will try to halt Iran’s nuclear program. Fouirth, Trump will use tariffs against China to
pressure Xi Jinping into a summit meeting. Trump wants a grand bargain where the
2
U.S. gains economically and the U.S. and China work together to maintain peace in
Indo-China.
Rubio and Walz are both known as China hawks but Elon Musk, a senior unofficial
advisor, has substantial commercial interests in China. Rubio and Walz will quickly
pivot if Trump decides to cut a deal with Xi.
Under U.S. law, a new Administration must submit a National Security Strategy Report
to Congress after 150 days. This deadline has not always been met. After the National
Security Strategy Report is approved, the Trump Administration should issue a U.S.
National Defense Strategy followed by a Maritime Strategy and an Indo-Pacific
Strategy.
In summary, foreign policy under Trump will be assertive and disruptive. It will be clear
that Trump expects allies and partners to fall in line behind U.S. foreign policy and
raise their defence budgets to a assume a greater role in regional security.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “President-Elect Trump’s Foreign Policy – 2”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 16, 2024. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer).
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Contact: carl@thayerconsultancy.com.au