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Ausaaf Khan M.ECO

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8 views3 pages

Ausaaf Khan M.ECO

Uploaded by

khan.ausaaf2209
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Department of Management

(BBA DIGITAL MARKETING)

BATCH: 2024-27

ASSIGNMENT ON: Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Indicators and


Cash Rate for the Indian Economy

NAME : AUSAAF KHAN


ENROLLMENT NO : AJU/240999
ROLL NO : 78
SECTION : A
BRANCH : (Digital Marketing)
SEMESTER : 1st
SUBJECT : Managerial Economics (21032)
SUBMITTED TO : Prof. DR NIKITA SHUKLA

DATE: - 2 5 / 1 1 / 2 4 FACULTY SIGNATURE


ASSIGNMENT
Topic :- Forecasting key macroeconomics indicators and Cash rates for the Indian economy.

Introduction: The global economy faces significant uncertainties with slow growth expected in
major economies like China and the USA. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a possible
shift towards protectionist trade policies add to these challenges. For India, these factors bring both
hurdles and opportunities, impacting vital macroeconomic indicators including inflation, trade
balances, and interest rates.

Current Case Description: The global economy is currently characterized by weak growth across
major economies, with particular concerns around China's slowing growth and the USA's modest
economic performance. The US Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in late 2024 or early
2025 add another layer of complexity. Additionally, there is a growing trend towards protectionism,
with some countries considering tariffs and trade barriers, which could disrupt global trade
dynamics. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East poses further risks,
potentially impacting global oil supply and adding to economic instability.

Alternative Details:
1. Global Economic Slowdown: Major economies like China and the USA are experiencing
sluggish growth, creating an uncertain global economic landscape.

2. China's Economic Hurdles: China faces slowing economic expansion due to challenges in
its real estate sector, demographic changes, and reduced export demand.

3. Economic Strain in the USA: The USA is grappling with slow growth, high inflation, rising
interest rates, and possible Federal Reserve rate cuts in late 2024 or early 2025 to spur
growth.

4. Emerging Protectionism: Many nations, particularly the USA, may embrace protectionist
trade policies, including tariffs and barriers, disrupting global trade and forcing a re-
evaluation of supply chains and agreements.

5. Geopolitical Instability in the Middle East: The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict threatens
global energy supplies and trade routes, potentially causing oil price hikes and increased
market volatility.
6. Impact on International Trade and Supply Chains: Weak economic growth, protectionist
policies, and geopolitical tensions may lead to global supply chain disruptions, increased
production costs, and a shift towards more localized manufacturing.

Conclusion: In summary, the global economy is navigating through a


period of significant uncertainty, characterized by slow growth in key
economies such as China and the USA. The potential rise of protectionist
policies and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East compound
these challenges, impacting global trade dynamics and supply chains.
Addressing these issues will necessitate collaborative efforts among
policymakers, businesses, and international entities to foster economic
resilience and stability in the face of these complex global threats.

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