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‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻱﺗﻲ ﺍﻱ‬ ‫ﻫـﺃ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝﺍﻟﻔﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻡ‬

‫ ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‬.‫ﺟﻮﻥﻑ‬
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‫ﺟﻤﻴﻊﺍﻟﺤﻘﻮﻕ ﻣﺤﻔﻮﻇﺔ ﻟﺠﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ © ‪.2013‬‬

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‫ﻧﺸُﺮﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ‪ ،.JohnWiley & Sons, Inc‬ﻫﻮﺑﻮﻛﻴﻦ‪،‬‬
‫ﻧﻴﻮﺟﻴﺮﺳﻲ‪.‬ﻧﺸُﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻨﺪﺍ‪.‬‬

‫ﻻﻳﺠﻮﺯ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺃﻱ ﺟﺰء ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻮﺭ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺗﺨﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺟﺎﻉ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻧﻘﻠﻪ ﺑﺄﻱ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺃﻭ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍء ﻛﺎﻧﺖ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻴﺔﺃﻭ ﻣﻴﻜﺎﻧﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺗﻮﻏﺮﺍﻓﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺠﻴﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺢ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺉﻲ ﺃﻭ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء‬
‫ﻣﺎﻫﻮ ﻣﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ﺑﻤﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻢ ‪ 107‬ﺃﻭ ‪ 108‬ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻟﻠﻮﻻﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ ،1976‬ﺩﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺫﻥ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﻲ ﻣﺴﺒﻖ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺷﺮ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺗﻔﻮﻳﺾ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺩﻓﻊ ﺭﺳﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺨﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﻴﺺ‬
‫ﻟﺤﻘﻮﻕﺍﻟﻄﺒﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ‪ ،Rosewood Drive، Danvers، MA 01923، )978( 750-8400 222 ،‬ﻓﺎﻛﺲ )‪(978‬‬
‫‪،8600-646‬ﺃﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻮﻳﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ .www.copyright.com‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ ﻃﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺫﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺷﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻗﺴﻢﺍﻷﺫﻭﻧﺎﺕ‪،JohnWiley & Sons, Inc.، 111 River Street، Hoboken، NJ 07030، )201( 748-6011 ،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻛﺲ)‪ ،6008-748 (201‬ﺃﻭ ﻋﺒﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪.www.wiley.com/go/permissions‬‬

‫ﺣﺪﻭﺩﺍﻟﻤﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪/‬ﺇﺧﻼء ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﺎﻥ‪ :‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺷﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺆﻟﻒ ﺑﺬﻻ ﻗﺼﺎﺭﻯ‬

‫ﺟﻬﺪﻫﻤﺎﻓﻲ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻬﻤﺎ ﻻ ﻳﻘﺪﻣﺎﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺗﻌﻬﺪﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺿﻤﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺪﻗﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻛﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻨﺼﻼﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺟﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻱ ﺿﻤﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺿﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺴﻮﻳﻖ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﻼءﻣﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻐﺮﺽﻣﻌﻴﻦ‪ .‬ﻻ ﻳﺠﻮﺯ ﻟﻤﻤﺜﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺘﻮﺑﺔ ﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﺃﻭ ﺗﻤﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻱ ﺿﻤﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﻗﺪ ﻻ‬
‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥﺍﻟﻨﺼﺎﺉﺢ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺓ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻟﻤﻮﻗﻔﻚ‪ .‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻚ ﺍﺳﺘﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺺ ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﻀﺎء‪.‬ﻟﻦ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺷﺮ ﻭﻻ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﻟﻒ ﻣﺴﺆﻭﻻ ًﻋﻦ ﺃﻱ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻱ ﺃﺿﺮﺍﺭ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﺑﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻓﻲﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ ﻻ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﺮ ﺍﻷﺿﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﻌﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻫﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﺣﻮﻝ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺗﻨﺎ ﻭﺧﺪﻣﺎﺗﻨﺎ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺃﻭ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻳﺮﺟﻰ ﺍﻻﺗﺼﺎﻝ ﺑﻘﺴﻢ‬
‫ﺧﺪﻣﺔﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼء ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﻢ )‪ ،2974-762 (800‬ﻭﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﻢ )‪(317‬‬
‫‪3993-572‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻛﺲ )‪.4002-572 (317‬‬

‫ﺗﻨﺸﺮﺷﺮﻛﺔ ‪ Wiley‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻎ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﺒﻮﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ .‬ﻗﺪ ﻻ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻀﻤﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺑﻌﺾﺍﻟﻤﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻤﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﺻﺪﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﺒﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺐ ﺍﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ ﻳﺸﻴﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭﺳﺎﺉﻂ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻗﺮﺹ ﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ ﺃﻭ ﻗﺮﺹ ‪ DVD‬ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﻀﻤﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺍﺷﺘﺮﻳﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻨﻚ‬
‫ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺍﺩ ﻣﻦ ‪ .http://booksupport.wiley.com‬ﻟﻤﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺣﻮﻝ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ‪ ،Wiley‬ﺗﻔﻀﻞ ﺑﺰﻳﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫‪.www.wiley.com‬‬

‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﻔﻬﺮﺳﺔ ﺃﺛﻨﺎء ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﺑﻤﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻧﺠﺮﺱ‪:‬‬

‫ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‪،‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪-1933 ،.‬‬
‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ‪ /‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﺭﺳﻢ‬
‫‪.‬ﺍﻟﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ‪. I.‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻲ )ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ(‪ .‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪( .‬ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻴﺔ) ‪( - ISBN 978-1-118-72860-4‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻌﺔﺍﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻴﺔ) ‪( - ISBN 978-1-118-72841-3‬ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺎﺷﻴﺔ) ‪SBN 978-1-118-72851-2‬‬
‫‪HG4529.E3882014‬‬
‫‪332.63'2042 — dc23‬‬
‫‪2013034306‬‬

‫ﺗﻤﺖﺍﻟﻄﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ‬

‫‪1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910‬‬
 ‫‪s( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎ‬ ‫ﺣﻮﻝﺍﻟﻤﺆﻟﻒ‬

‫‪Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-condition Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online‬‬
‫ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪1‬‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺭﺍﻧﺴﻔﺮ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻑ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻣﺠﺔﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﺳﻌﺔﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ )ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ(‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎﻁﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ‬

‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪،‬ﺃﻭ ﻟﻬﺎ؟‬ ‫ﺱ‪,‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪2‬‬

‫‪5‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ )‪(SMAs‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻴﺔ )‪(EMAs‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺟﺤﺔ )‪(WMAs‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫ﻓﻠﺘﺮﺍﻳﺪﻳﺎﻥ‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎﻁﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ‬

‫‪5‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﻜﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪3‬‬

‫‪5‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻟﺔﺍﻟﻤﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺮﻯ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﻴﻌﻴﺔ‬
 ‫‪4‬‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫‪36‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢ‪SuperSmoother‬‬

‫‪9‬‬ ‫ﻣﺰُﻳﻠﻮﺍﻟﺘﺪﻭﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫ﺇﻧﺸﺎءﺍﺕﺩﻳﺴﻴﻜﻞ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖﺩﻳﺴﺎﻳﻜﻠﻴﺮ‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﻣﺰُﻳﻞﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺭﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ‬

‫‪47‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﻭ‪P ss-‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‬

‫‪7‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺍﻟﻤﺮﻭﺭ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ‪Q‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔﺗﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺴﺐ )‪(AGC‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺍﻟﻤﺮﻭﺭ‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺱﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ‪ -‬ﻧﻘﺎﻁ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ‬
‫‪CONTENTS‬‬

‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ‬

‫‪65‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪﺍﻟﺮﺍﻛﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﺎ‬
‫‪67‬‬ ‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﻓﻲ‬
‫‪68‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞﻓﺮﺿﻴﺔ "ﻣﺴﻴﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻴﺮ" ﻟﻬﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ‬
‫‪4‬‬

‫‪7‬‬ ‫ﺗﻤﺪﺩﻃﻴﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‬

‫‪7‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻯﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺴﻘﻒ‬

‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﻛﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺭﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪8‬‬

‫‪91‬‬ ‫ﺧﻠﻔﻴﺔ‬
‫‪93‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ‬
‫‪102‬‬ ‫ﻣﺨﻄﻂﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻱ‬
‫‪110‬‬ ‫ﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ‬
‫‪113‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ‬
 ‫‪115‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪ 9‬ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﻓﻮﺭﻳﻴﻪ‬
‫‪116‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‬
‫‪117‬‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ‬
‫‪124‬‬ ‫ﻓﻮﺭﻳﻴﻪﺍﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ )‪(DFT‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪125‬‬ ‫‪HAPTER 10 omb Filter ectral timates‬‬
‫‪125‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‬
‫‪126‬‬ ‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻂ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ‬
‫‪133‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ‬

‫‪135‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﻣﻼﺉﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪11‬‬

‫‪135‬‬ ‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻔﻲ )‪(RSI‬‬
‫‪142‬‬ ‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺳﺘﻮﻛﺎﺳﺘﻴﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻔﻲ‬
‫‪147‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻔﻲ ﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ‬
‫‪152‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ )‪(CCI‬‬
‫‪157‬‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ‬

‫‪CONTENTS‬‬
‫‪158‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ‬

‫‪159‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺆﺷﺮﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻟﻠﺠﺪﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪12‬‬

‫ﺳﺎﺑﻌﺎ‬

‫‪160‬‬ ‫ﻧﻬﺞﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ‬

‫‪160‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ‬
‫‪162‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺮﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺠﺐ‬
‫‪164‬‬ ‫ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ‬

‫‪165‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪ 13‬ﺗﻄﻮﺭ‬

‫‪165‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻱ‬
‫‪168‬‬ ‫ﻋﺮﺽﺧﺮﻳﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫‪169‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻮﺳﺒﺔﺍﻻﻟﺘﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫‪174‬‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺭﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ‬

‫‪175‬‬ ‫ﺃﻟﺒﺮﺕﺃﻧﺴﻔﻮﺭﻣﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪14‬‬

‫‪176‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫‪177‬‬ ‫ﻣﺤﻮﻝﻫﻴﻠﺒﺮﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ‬
‫‪181‬‬ ‫ﻣﺤﻮﻝﻫﻴﻠﺒﺮﺕ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻣﺤﻮﻝ‬
‫‪183‬‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻠﺒﺮﺕﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺤﻮﻝ ﻫﻴﻠﺒﺮﺕ ﻟـ‬

‫‪186‬‬ ‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ‬

 ‫‪187‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻴﺰﺍﻟﻤﺰﺩﻭﺝ‬
‫‪189‬‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺍﻛﻢﺍﻟﻬﻴﺲ‬
‫‪192‬‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺠﺎﻧﺴﺔ‬
‫‪194‬‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺭﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪95‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪ - 15‬ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ‬
‫‪195‬‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞﺍﻳﺸﺮ‬
‫‪198‬‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞﻓﻴﺸﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺴﻲ‬
‫‪00‬‬ ‫ﺃﻭﺑﻲﺗﺮﺍﻧﺴﻔﻮﺭﻡ‬
‫‪02‬‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺭﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ‬

‫‪03‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪wamiCharts 16‬‬

‫‪04‬‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺮﺓﻋﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎﺕﺳﻮﺍﻣﻲ‬
‫‪05‬‬ ‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟـ ‪WamiCharts‬‬

‫‪10‬‬ ‫ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎﺕﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻴﺔ ‪wamiCharts‬‬

‫‪216‬‬ ‫ﺭﻭﻝﻳﻮﺭ ﺍﻥ ﺳﻮﺍﻣﻲ ﺗﺸﺎﺭﺗﺲ‬

‫‪216‬‬
‫‪CONTENTS‬‬

‫ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺭﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ‬

‫‪17‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪ - 17‬ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺤﺔ‬

‫‪19‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻤﺔﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻣﻦ‬

‫‪20‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻗﻊﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻝ‬

‫‪21‬‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺮﺩ‪ineWave‬‬
‫‪24‬‬ ‫ﺻﻤﺎﻡﺍﻷﻣﺎﻥ‬
‫‪25‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺮﻭﺝﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫‪25‬‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰﺧﺴﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫‪226‬‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‬
‫‪227‬‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢﻣﻮﻧﺖ ﻛﺎﺭﻟﻮ‬
‫‪28‬‬ ‫ﺳﺘﻮﻛﺴﺒﻮﺗﺮ‪.‬ﻛﻮﻡ‬
‫‪29‬‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺭﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ‬

‫‪31‬‬ ‫ﺣﻮﻝﺍﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ‬
‫‪233‬‬ ‫ﻓﻬِﺮﺱِ‬
 ‫‪s( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬

‫ﻟﻘﺪﻣﺮ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻦﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺍﺭﻳﺦ ﻟﻠﺘﺠﺎﺭﻓﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ‬

‫‪Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-condition Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻳﺎﻡ‪،‬ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻡ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺗﺠﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻵﺟﻠﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﺣﻴﻦ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻔﻈﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻳﺸﻜﻼﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻋﻤﻴﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺫﻟﻚ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪.‬ﻓﻘﺪﺕ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻵﺟﻠﺔ ﺷﻌﺒﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻟﻔﻀﺎﺉﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻨﻄﻮﻱ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﺣﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﻋﻤﻼء ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻧﺘﻬﻰ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬
‫ﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻟﻢ ﺗﻌﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍء ﻭﺍﻻﺣﺘﻔﺎﻅ ﺻﺎﻟﺤﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪،‬ﻭﺗﻄﻮﺭﺕ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺗﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺻﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﺔ‬
‫)‪ .(ETFs‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺃﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﻻﺕ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻧﺨﻔﻀﺖﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻠﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺑﻔﻀﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖ‪.‬ﻛﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﻬﻢﺑﺎﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﻪ ﺫﺍﺗﻴﺎً‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﺎﻃﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﺮﻯ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺖﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻀﻤﻴﻦ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﺼﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻫﺬﺍﻛﺘﺎﺏ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻓﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻜﺘﻮﺏ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻔﺴﻬﻢ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦﻳﺮﻏﺒﻮﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻓﻬﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺲ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻮﻧﻬﺎﻓﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻬﻢ ﺑﺪﻻ ًﻣﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‬
‫ﺑﺈﻳﻤﺎﻥﺃﻋﻤﻰ‪ .‬ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺎﺕ ﻭﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻭﺭﺍء ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻮﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻳﺪﺓﺍﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻳﻨﺼﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﺎﻃﺔ ﺑﺪﻻ ًﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎءﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺟﻪ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻮﺹ‪ ،‬ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻮﻝ ﻧﻬﺠﺎً ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎً‬
‫ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖﻧﺘﺎﺉﺞ ﺗﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻓﻌﺎّﻟﺔ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻓﻬﻤﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺨﻠﻔﻴﺔﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺒﺮ ﻓﻘﻂ‪ .‬ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ ﻣﻮﺟﺰ ﻋﻤﺪﺍً ﺣﺘﻰ ﻻ ﻳﺤﺘﺎﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺭﺉﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺨﻮﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺟﺒﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﻌﺜﻮﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡﺁﻟﺔ ﺣﺎﺳﺒﺔ ‪ EasyLanguage‬ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻭﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻭﺟﻬﺔﻧﻈﺮﻱ‪،‬‬
 ‫‪.‬ﺗﺤﺘﻮﻱﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﺭﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ﻗﺎﺑﻼ ًﻟﻠﻘﺮﺍءﺓ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻠﻐﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻧﺠﻠﻴﺰﻳﺔ‪ Pascal‬ﻫﻲ ﻣﺠﺮﺩ ﻟﻬﺠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻟﻐﺔ ‪EasyLanguage‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻓﺮﻳﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻮﻋﻬﺎ ﻷﻧﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﺎﺉﺺ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺎً‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬

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‫ﻣﻌﻘﺪﻟﻠﻐﺎﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻣﺎ ﻻ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻟﻪ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺇﻥﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺳﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﻗﺼﻴﺮﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﺼﻴﺮﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺳﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﻗﺼﻴﺮﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻭﻗﺖ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻟﻮﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ‪ .‬ﻓﻀﻼ ًﻋﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻋﺎﺑﺮﺓ ﻭﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ًﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺪﻓﻮﻧﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺿﻮﺿﺎء ﺧﺎﻟﺼﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﺣﺪﺃﻭﻝ ﺍﻹﺩﺭﺍﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺪﺭﻛﻬﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫ﺃﻥﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎً ﻟﻠﺘﺪﺍﻭﻻﺕ ﻃﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﺗﻐﻤﺮ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﻤﺎﻗﺔ ﻣﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﻭﻣﺔ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻔﻴﺪﺓ ﻟﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﺘﻰ ﺗﺸﺘﺮﻱ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺳﺘﻮﻛﺎﺳﺘﻴﻚ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ )‪،(I‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﺏ‪/‬ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙ )‪ ،(MA‬ﻭﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ )‪CI‬‬
‫( ﺗﺨﻀﻊ ﻟﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻓﻬﻢ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ‬
‫ﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻫﻢﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ‪،‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﺠﺎﺭﺳﻮﻑ ﺗﺴﻤﺢ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻔﻜﻴﺮ‬
‫ﻓﻲﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺗﻬﻢ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻬﻢ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ‬
‫ﺗﺤﺮﻛﺎﺗﻬﻢﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪ .‬ﺳﺘﻤﻜﻨﻬﻢ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻫﺬﻩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺃﻃﻮﺍﻝﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﺮﻭﺣﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﻤﺖ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﺻﺎﻑ ﻟﻔﻬﻤﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﻋﺪﺓ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺳﻮﻑﻳﺘﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﻢ ﺧﻠﻔﻴﺔ ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ ﻟﺼﺎﻟﺤﻬﻢ‪ .‬ﻭﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺘﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻘﺪﻣﺎً ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔﻣﻦ ﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﺘﻜﻴﻒ ﺗﻠﻘﺎﺉﻴﺎً ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺳﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻛﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﺒﻴﻮﺗﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺻﻮﻓﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﻥ‪،‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺎﺟﺮ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻤﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ؟ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺑﻌﺾ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢﺍﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺻﻨﻔﺘﻬﺎ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﺍﻟﻮﻋﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻀﺎء ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﻟﺼﺎﻟﺤﻨﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺴﺐ )‪ (AG‬ﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻣﻀﺨﻢ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﻜﻴﺮﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﻮﻋﻲ ﺑﺄﻥ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﻭﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﻣﻄﻠﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻮﺣﻲ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﺑﺬﻟﻚﻋﺮﺿﻬﺎ ﺑﺨﻂ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻛﺘﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﺦ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ‪ ،SuperSmoother‬ﻭﻣﺮﺷﺢ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻘﻒ‪،‬ﻭﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺆﺷﺮ ‪.HilbertTransform‬‬

 ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙﻋﺪﺓ ﻃﺮﻕ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺃﻃﻴﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ‪،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻃﺉﺔ‬

‫ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎً‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﻴﻦ ﻋﺮﺽ ﻭﺗﻔﺴﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‪.‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪-‬‬

‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻃﻮﺭﺗﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﻠﺼﺘﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺍﺕ‬

‫ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓﻭﻣﻔﻴﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺮ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﺎﻑ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻠﺨﺺ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝﻓﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍء ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﺳﻬﻠﺔ ﺃﺑﺪﺍً‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﻣﻊ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻨﺼﺎﺉﺢ ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﻠﻤﺘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻘﺪﺗﻌﻠﻤﺖ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺎﺭﺳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺗﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻮﻕ ﻛﻞ ﺷﻲء‪ ،‬ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﻟﻨﺎ‬
‫ﺃﻥﻧﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺉﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺤﺘﻰ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻷﺩﺍء ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ‬
‫‪ %60‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﺤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ‪ %60‬ﺃﻗﺮﺏ ﻛﺜﻴﺮﺍ ًﺇﻟﻰ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ‪ 50-50‬ﻣﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ‬
‫‪ %100‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﺼﻞ ﺑﺤﺪﺙ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺩﺍء ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻗﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻘﺎﺕﻏﻴﺮ ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻭﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺷﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍء ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺴﻚ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻃﻮﺭﻭﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﻣﺮﺑﺢ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻴﺎ‪ ً،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﻟﻺﺣﺼﺎﺉﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺄﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻧﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ‬
‫ﻓﻲﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﻴﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﺪﻟﻴﻞﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺲ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺎﻫﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻮﻩ ﻟﺪﻱ‪ ،‬ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﻛﻞ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺑﺘﻮﺭﻳﺔ "ﺗﻮﻡ‬

‫‪PREFACE‬‬
‫ﺳﻮﻳﻔﺘﻲ" ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻠﺨﺺ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻭﺁﻣﻞ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﻤﺜﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﺮﺳﺎﺓ‬
‫ﻟﺬﺍﻛﺮﺓﺍﻟﻘﺎﺭﺉ‪ .‬ﺃﻋﺘﻘﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﺒﻴﻮﺗﺮ‬
‫ﺃﻧﺎ‬
‫ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎًﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻐﻨﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺇﻳﺠﺎﺯﺍً ﻭﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻮﺻﻒ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻣﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺑﻲ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻮﺟﺰﺍً‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻌﺮﻳﺔ ﻣﻊ‬
‫ﺗﺪﻭﻳﻦﺭﻳﺎﺿﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﻹﻳﺼﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲﻛﻞ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺪﺙ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﺗﻤﻨﻰﻟﻜﻢ ﺟﻤﻴﻌﺎ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺟﻴﺪﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺟﻮﻥﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‬
‫ﺃﻏﺴﻄﺲ‪2013‬‬
 ‫‪s( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻋﻦﺍﻟﻤﺆﻟﻒ‬

‫‪.‬ﻭﻫﻮﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺰﺉﺔ ﻣﻨﺬ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ Raytheon. 1976‬ﻫﻮ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺱ‬

‫ﺝ‬

‫‪Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-condition Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online‬‬
‫ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺉﻲ‪،‬ﺣﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻜﺎﻟﻮﺭﻳﻮﺱ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﺟﺴﺘﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺉﻴﺔﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻣﻴﺴﻮﺭﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺣﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﻛﺘﻮﺭﺍﻩ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺷﻨﻄﻦ‪،‬ﻭﺗﺨﺼﺺ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺎﺕ ﻭﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﻘﺎﻋﺪ‬
‫ﻛﺰﻣﻴﻞﻫﻨﺪﺳﻲ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪hn Ehlers‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎ‬
‫ﺟﻮﻥﻫﻮ ﺭﺍﺉﺪ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺧﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ‪ MESA‬ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﻃﻮﺭ‬
‫ﺗﻢﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻃﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺮﻭﺑﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ )‪ (MESA‬ﻣﻨﺬ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺛﻼﺛﺔﻋﻘﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻣﻊ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺃﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﺒﻴﻮﺗﺮ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﻳﺜﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﺘﺐﺟﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﻭﺍﺳﻊ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺨﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻭﺗﺤﺪﺙ ﺩﻭﻟﻴﺎً ﺣﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺿﻮﻉ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺸﻤﻞﻛﺘﺒﻪﻭﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺍﺭﻳﺦ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ‪MESA‬ﻭﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ‬
‫‪ ybernetic‬ﻟﻸﺳﻬﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻵﺟﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺑﻪ ﻓﺮﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻮﻋﻪ‪ .‬ﺇﺫ ﻳﺠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺃﻱﺗﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﺃﻭﻻ ًﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﻗﺒﻞ ﻣﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺟﻮﻥﻫﻮ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻛﻴﻦ ﻓﻲ ‪.StockSpotter.com‬‬
 ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪.‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‪.‬‬
‫‪ John Wiley & Sons, Inc.‬ﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2013‬ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ‪© 2013 John F. Ehlers.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﻣﺘﻄﻮﺭ‬
‫ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ‬
‫"ﺇﻧﻪ ﺃﻣﺮ ﻣﻌﻘﺪ ﻟﻠﻐﺎﻳﺔ"‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﻝ ﺗﻮﻡ ﺑﺒﺴﺎﻃﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﺸﻤﻮﻟﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺟﻮﻫﺮ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺰﻭﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ‬

‫ﺑﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻘﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻛﻤﺨﺮﺝ‪ .‬ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺳﻮﻯ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻭﻣﺨﺮﺝ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻓﻘﻂ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺨﺮﺝﻣﻌﻘﺪﺍً ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺮﻏﺒﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺮﺝ‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻫﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲﺗﺼﻒ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﺘﺠﺪﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ‪،‬ﻭﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺛﻨﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻴﺢ ﻟﻚ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﻟﻜﻞ‬
‫ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ‪.‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺳﺘﺠﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻣﺘﺮﺍﺑﻄﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻭﺛﻴﻖ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻴﺪ ﻣﺮﺍﻋﺎﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻼ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻟﻴﻦ‪.‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻢ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺘﺬﻛﺮ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻨﺒﺆﻱ ‪ -‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻦﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﻜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪ ،‬ﺳﺘﺘﻤﻜﻦ ﺑﺴﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝﺑﻴﻦ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ ﻭﺑﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻼﺗﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺑﻚ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺼﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬
‫ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮﺽﺃﻥ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎً ﻣﺘﺤﺮﻛﺎً ﺑﺴﻴﻄﺎً ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻠﺔﻫﻲ ﺁﺧﺮ ﺃﺭﺑﻊ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ‪ .‬ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ ﻫﻲ ﺭﺑﻊ ﺃﺣﺪﺙ ﺳﻌﺮ‬
‫ﺁﺗﺎﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺭﺑﻊ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮﺓ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺭﺑﻊ‬
 ‫ﺇﺫﺍﺗﺄﺧﺮﺕ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺷﺮﻳﻄﻴﻦ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺭﺑﻊ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮﺓﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺳﻤﺤﻨﺎ ﻟﻠﺮﻣﺰ ﺑﺘﻤﺜﻴﻞ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ )‪(SMA‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪(1-1‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪+4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺍﻹﺧﺮﺍﺝ ‪ /‬ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ( ‪1/4‬‬

‫ﺗﺴﻤﻰﻗﻴﻢ ¼ ﺑﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ .‬ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‬

‫ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ‪ ،1‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﻫﻲ ‪ 1‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺎً‪.‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﺧﺘﺮﻧﺎ ﺗﻌﻤﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻟﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﻌﺴﻔﻲ‪ .‬ﻋﻼﻭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺗﻤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻟﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻪ ﺃﻱ ﻃﻮﻝ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪*. . . . . . . . . . .‬‬ ‫*‬ ‫*‬ ‫*‬ ‫*‬ ‫=‬

‫)‪(1-2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻲءﺍﻟﻤﺜﻴﺮ ﻟﻼﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺣﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻧﻨﺎ ﻛﺘﺒﻨﺎ ﺍﻵﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞﻛﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺟﺒﺮﻳﺔ ﻣﻌﻤﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﻭﺩ‬
‫ﺃﺗﻤﻨﻰﻟﻚ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺮﻳﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺗﻮﺳﻴﻊ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻛﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻛﺜﻴﺮﺗﻲﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺏﺯ*‪-‬ﻥ‬
‫‪ +‬ﺏ‪*3‬ﺯ ‪ +‬ﺏ‪*4‬ﺯ ‪ + . . . . . . . . . +‬ﻥ‬
‫‪4-‬‬ ‫‪3-‬‬
‫ﺏ*ﺯ‪+1-‬ﺏ*‪2‬ﺯ‪2-‬‬
‫ﺏ‪1 +‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫ﺡ)ﺯ( =‬
‫‪ + . . . . . . . . +‬ﺃﻥ*ﺯ‪-‬ﻥ‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪ +‬ﺃ‪*4‬ﺯ‪-‬‬
‫‪3-‬‬
‫‪ +‬ﺃ‪*3‬ﺯ‬ ‫‪ +‬ﺃ‪*2‬ﺯ‪2-‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪ * 1‬ﺯ‪1‬‬
‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺃ‪0‬‬
‫‪+‬‬
‫‪(1-3‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻒﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻷﻱ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺸﻲء‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴﺪﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻤﻴﺰ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎً ﻋﻦ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻫﻮ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﻭﺩ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺿﺢ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﻔﻮﺭ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺃﺻﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻌﻘﻴﺪﺍً‪ ،‬ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺟﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪.‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺳﻴﺊ ﺣﻘﺎً ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻷﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡﺍﻟﻤﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻟﺪﻳﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ‪.‬ﻳﻌﺪ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﻪ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔﻟﻠﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺻﻐﻴﺮﺓ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝﻭﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻻ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﻘﺪﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻋﻠﻤﺎء ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﻨﺰﻋﺠﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺭﺑﻤﺎ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻓﻬﻢ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ 3-1‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻂ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬
‫=‬
‫ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺃ‪+0‬ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻣﻦﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻌﻠﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﻮﺭ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﺎﺩﻝ‪ ،‬ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻣﻔﻴﺪﺓ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﻌُﺪَﻝِّ*ﻧﺈﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻨُﻮَﻡِّ*ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬ ‫*‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻣﻨُﻮَﻡِّ*ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬ ‫ﻣﻌُﺪَﻝِّ*ﻣﺪﺧﻞ‬ ‫* ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬

‫‪(1-4‬‬ ‫ﻣﻨُﻮَﻡِّ*ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ( ‪/‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌُﺪَﻝِّ*ﻧﺈﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ)‬

‫ﺗﻨﺺﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ 4-1‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ ﻳﺘﺄﻟﻒ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺰﺃﻳﻦ‪ .‬ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺠﺰء‬

‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻂ‪ ،‬ﻗﻴﻢ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻓﻘﻂ‪ .‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺤﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴﺪﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻘﺎﻝ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺘﺄﻟﻒ ﺍﻟﺠﺰء‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎً ﻟﻺﺧﺮﺍﺝ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻘﺎﻝ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﻼﺗﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺃﻱ ﻗﻴﻢ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎً ﻟﻺﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻤﻴﻴﺰ ﻣﻬﻢ ﻷﻧﻪ‬

‫‪UNIFIED FILTER THEORY‬‬

‫ﻣﻦﺍﻟﺼﻌﺐ ﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﻓﻼﺗﺮ ﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﻟﻐﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﺒﻴﻮﺗﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪.‬ﻭﺑﻴﻦ ﻗﻮﺳﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ًﻭﺍﺣﺪﺍً ﻟﺘﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺭ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻹﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻭﻻ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺎً ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎً ﻟﻺﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔﻟﻺﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﺟﺰﺉﻴﺎً‪ .‬ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﺳﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲﺍﻛﺘﺴﺒﺖ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﻤﺎء ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﻤﺎء ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻌﺎﺭﺓ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﻨﺒﻀﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﻭﺩﺓ )ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ‪(FI‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺧﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺭﺍﻧﺴﻔﺮﺍﻝ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ‪ SMA‬ﻫﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﺣﺪﺃﻫﻢ ﺧﺼﺎﺉﺺ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺎﺟﺮ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ‪ ag‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻘﺪﻣﻪ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﺍﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻪﻣﺘﻨﺎﻇﺮﺓ ﺣﻮﻝ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﺪﻳﻪ ﺩﺍﺉﻤﺎً ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮﻣﻘﺴﻮﻣﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺛﻨﻴﻦ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻠﻔﻠﺘﺮ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻦﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺳﺔ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺑﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺟﺪﺍً‪،‬‬
 ‫ﻧﻈﺮﺍًﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﻼﺗﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺃﻏﻠﺐﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﺑﺴﻴﻄﺔ ﻭﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺍً ﻭﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺻﻔﺮﺍً‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻣﺠﺮﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻂ‪.‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻣﻦﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺠﺒﺮ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺠﺬﻭﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻛﺒﺔﺑﻘﺪﺭ ﻣﺎ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﻥ‬‫(*‪)*...‬‬ ‫*)‬ ‫(*)‬ ‫(*)‬ ‫)‬

‫)‪(1-5‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﻗﺪﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻣﺎً ﻣﺮﻛﺒﺔ ﻭﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻣﺎً ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﺴﻤﻰ‬
‫ﺟﺬﻭﺭﻛﺜﻴﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺃﺻﻔﺎﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻧﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻛﺜﻴﺮﺓ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺛﻼﺛﺔﺟﺬﻭﺭ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪(1-6‬‬ ‫ﺡ)ﺯ( = )‪)*(1/4‬ﺯ‪)*(1 +1-‬ﺯ‪)*( 1− +1-‬ﺯ‪(1- -1-‬‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺘﻪﻟﻠﺘﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺟﺬﺭ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻭﺟﺬﺭﺍﻥ ﺗﺨﻴﻠﻴﺎﻥ ﻣﻜﻤﻼﻥ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ‬

‫ﻓﻲﺍﻟﺠﺬﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺒﺪﻟﻨﺎﺍﻷﺳﻲ ﺑـﺇﻛﺲ ﺑﻲ ﺝ‪2‬ﻑ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ ،5-1‬ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺩﻳﻤﻮﺍﻓﺮ‪:‬‬

‫ﺯ‪0 =1 +1-‬‬
‫ﻫـ‪-‬ﺝ‪π2‬ﻑ‪0 =1+‬‬
‫ﻫـ‪-‬ﺝ‪π2‬ﻑ‪+2/‬ﻫـﺝ‪π2‬ﻑ‪2/‬‬
‫‪(1-7‬‬ ‫=‪0‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﻛﻮﺱ)‪π‬ﻑ( =‪0‬‬

‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺻﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ‬
‫ﺃﺧﺬﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻧﺼﻒ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﺃﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻣﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻧﻈﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﺃﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺳﻤﺎء ﻣﺴﺘﻌﺎﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺴﻤﻰ‬
‫ﺗﺮﺩﺩ‪ .yquist‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺘﻨﺎ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺃﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻮﺣﺪ ﺩﻓﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻟﻜﻞ‬
‫ﺷﺮﻳﻂ‪،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺘﻪ ﻫﻮ ‪ 0.5‬ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ‪،‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺮﻳﻄﻴﻦ‪ .‬ﺗﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ 7-1‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬
‫ﻳﺤﺪﺙﺑﺎﻟﻀﺒﻂ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ‪ .yquist‬ﻟﻘﺪ ﻧﺠﺤﻨﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻟﻐﺎء ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫ﻓﻲ‪ SMA‬ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎً‪.‬‬
 ‫ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎﺭﺅﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻳﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﺪء ﺑـ ‪SMA‬‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻥﻣﻦ ﺧﻤﺴﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺛﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻤﻴﻢ‪.‬‬
‫‪+1‬ﺯ‪+1-‬ﺯ‪+2-‬ﺯ‪+3-‬ﺯ‪4-‬‬
‫ﺡ)ﺯ( =‬
‫‪5‬‬

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‫ﻭﻃﺮﺡﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺪﺩ‬ ‫ﺑﻀﺮﺏﻛﻼ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻴﻜﺎﻧﺪﻣﻦ ﻛﻼ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫‪-1‬ﺯ‪5-‬‬
‫ﺡ)ﺯ()‪-1‬ﺯ‪= (1-‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪-1‬ﺯ‪5-‬‬
‫ﺡ)ﺯ( =‬
‫‪−1)5‬ﺯ‪(1-‬‬
‫‪5-‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫ﺯ‪-2‬ﺯ‬

‫‪UNIFIED FILTER THEORY‬‬

‫ﺡ)ﺯ( =‬
‫‪(21 -‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪)*5‬ﺯ‪-2‬ﺯ‬
‫ﻧﺤﺼﻞﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻬﺬﺍ ‪ SMA‬ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻤﺴﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺇﺟﺮﺍء‬
‫ﺇﻛﺴﺐﺟﻒ‪,‬ﺃﻳﻦﻑﻫﻮ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﺃﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺛﻢ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺒﺪﺍﻝ‬
‫ﻫـﺝ‪π5‬ﻑ‪-2/‬ﻫـ‪-‬ﺝ‪π5‬ﻑ‪2/‬‬

‫ﺡ)‪π2‬ﻑ( = ‪)*5‬ﻫـﺝ‪π2‬ﻑ‪-2/‬ﻫـ‪-‬ﺝ‪π2‬ﻑ‪(2/‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻴﺉﺔ)‪π5‬ﻑ‪(2/‬‬
‫ﺡ)‪π2‬ﻑ( =‬
‫‪5‬ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻴﺉﺔ)‪π‬ﻑ(‬

‫ﺳﻮﻑﻳﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍء ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﻢ ﺩﺭﺍﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻘﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ‬

‫ﻣﺴﺎﻭﺍﺓﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻜﺎﻓﺊ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺐ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺩﻳﻤﻮﺍﻓﺮ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻘﺮﺍءﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﻢ ﺧﻠﻔﻴﺔ ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺮﺟﻰ ﻗﺒﻮﻟﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻳﻤﺎﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﺑﺘﻌﻤﻴﻢﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟـ ‪ SMA‬ﺑﻄﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻟـ ‪ SMA‬ﻓﻲ‬

‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻣﻌﺒﺮﺍً ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻴﺉﺔ)ﻥ‪π‬ﻑ‪(2/‬‬
‫ﺡ)‪π2‬ﻑ( =‬
‫ﻧﺴﻴﻦ)‪π2‬ﻑ‪(2/‬‬

‫ﻭﻟﻜﻦﺑﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ ﻫﻮ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻹﺭﺳﺎﻝ‬

‫ﻓﻲﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻴﺉﺔ)ﻥ‪π‬ﻑ(‬
‫‪(8 -‬‬ ‫ﺡ)‪π2‬ﻑ( =‬
‫ﻧﺴﻴﻦ)‪π‬ﻑ(‬

‫ﺃﻳﻦﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ‪ f‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺃﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‬

 ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺝﺍﻟﻤﻬﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻔﻜﺮ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺼﻼﺣﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺃﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ‬
‫ﺃﻭﻣﻴﻦ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ‪ SMA‬ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻛﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻓﻲ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪ ،1.1‬ﻧﺮﻯ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺻﻔﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻓﺤﺴﺐ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ‬
‫ﺃﻳﻀﺎًﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ‪.0.25‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻮﺭ ﺍﻷﻓﻘﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻫﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮﺷﻴﻮﻋﺎً ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻟﻬﻤﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻣﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺗﺮﺩﺩ‪ 0.25‬ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﻳﺘﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺷﺮﻳﻄﻨﺎ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﺳﻲ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﺳﻌﺔﺍﻹﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺪﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ )‪ (dB‬ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﻟﻮﻏﺎﺭﻳﺘﻤﻲ‬
‫(‪Amplitude )dB‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﻗﻴﺎﺱﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﺮﺝ‪ .‬ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 1.1‬ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﺻﻔﺎﺭﺍً ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ‬

‫ﻧﻘﻞﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﻥﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﻜﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻋﻤﻠﻪﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻣﺮ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﻔﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮﻫﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻳﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺮﺝ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻴﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻦﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﺃﻭ ﺑﺪﻭﻧﻪ‪ .‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻣﻨﻌﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻭﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺮﺝ‪،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ‪ SMA‬ﻫﻮ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ‪.‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫–‪5‬‬

‫‪10 -‬‬

‫‪15 -‬‬

‫‪20 -‬‬

‫‪25 -‬‬

‫‪30 -‬‬

‫‪35 -‬‬

‫‪40 -‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫‪1.1‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﺑﺴﻴﻂ ﻣﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﺠﻮ‬

 ‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻭﺣﺠﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ‪ .‬ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ‪w‬‬
‫ﻫﻲﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻫﺘﺰﺍﺯ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻠﺔﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎً ﻣﺎ ﻳﺠﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺐ ﺗﻔﺴﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺪﻓﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺃﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻟﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪.‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻻﺗﻌﺪ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ‪ w-pass‬ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺅﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻤﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ .3-1‬ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺽ ﺃﻧﻨﺎ ﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﺑﺘﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺑﺤﻴﺚ‬
‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪0.5‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬
‫(‪Amplitude )dB‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫ﺟﻤﻴﻊﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ‪.‬‬

‫‪UNIFIED FILTER THEORY‬‬

‫ﺛﻢﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪.1.2‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺿﻌﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺸﺪﺓﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻧﻪ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕﺃﺟﺰﺍء ًﻣﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺟﺪﺍً‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻫﻮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ‬
‫ﻣﺰﻳﻞﻟﻼﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﻷﻥ ﺗﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺭﻓﻀﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺭﺩﺍﻹﺭﺳﺎﻝ‪.‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫–‪5‬‬

‫‪10 -‬‬

‫‪15 -‬‬

‫‪20 -‬‬

‫‪25 -‬‬

‫‪30 -‬‬

‫‪35 -‬‬

‫‪40 -‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫‪1.2‬ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺷﺮﻳﻄﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﺠﻮ‬

 ‫ﻧﻈﺮﺍًﻷﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻣﺠﺮﺩ ﺃﺧﺬ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕﺑﻴﻦ ﻋﻴﻨﺘﻴﻦ ﻣﺘﺘﺎﻟﻴﺘﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕﻣﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﻟﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺿﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻴﺢ ﻫﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻬﻮﻡﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﻌﺪﺓ ﻃﺮﻕ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‬

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‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﺗﻨﺒﺆﻱ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺿﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺗﺠﺎﻩ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺃﻱ ﻋﻴﻨﺘﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﻓﻲﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻂ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻳﺘﻨﺒﺄ ﺑﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻻ ًﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍﺍﻓﺘﺮﺿﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ‪ ata‬ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﺟﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺳﺎﻛﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺿﻞ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﺩ)ﺧﻄﻴﺉﺔ)‪π2‬ﻗﺪﻡ((‬
‫‪(1-9‬‬ ‫=‬
‫ﻛﻮﺱ)‪π2‬ﻗﺪﻡ(‬
‫‪π2‬ﻑ‬ ‫ﺩﺕ‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻥ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﺮﻭﻓﺎً‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻻ ﻳﻮﻓﺮ‬
‫ﻓﻘﻂﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﻳﺴﺒﻖ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻠﺔ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ‪ 90‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺑﻞﻳﻮﻓﺮ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺮﺝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻠﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ 2-1‬ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭ ﻣﻌﻤﻢ‪،‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ‪2‬ﻣﺼﻄﻠﺢ ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‪:‬‬

‫‪2/(1‬‬ ‫‪1/2‬‬ ‫‪2/‬‬

‫(‬ ‫‪'. 1‬‬ ‫‪.‬‬ ‫*‬ ‫()‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪*2/‬‬
‫‪(1-10‬‬ ‫*‬

‫ﺝ‪2‬ﻑﻳﻤﻜﻦﺍﺳﺘﺒﺪﺍﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﺇﻳﻨﺲ ‪2/‬ﻫﻮ ﻣﺼﻄﻠﺢ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺑﺤﺖ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻨﺬ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻦﺧﺒﺮﺓ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‪ 10-1‬ﻫﻲ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻝ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﺣﻮﻝ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ‪.‬ﻋﻼﻭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎً‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ‬
‫‪in put data but also on previous values of the output. Strictly recursive filters are‬‬
‫‪A recursive filter is one where the output response depends not only on the‬‬
‫‪and therefore have acquired many different names.Among the aliases are:‬‬
‫‪in the denominator of Equation 1-3. cursive filters also have wide applications‬‬
‫‪haracterized by using only a constant in the numerator and multiple terms‬‬

‫‪xponential moving average filters‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫‪Infinite impulse response )II filters‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬

 adder filters -

utoregressive filters -

coefficients are zero, If the coefficient is a constant and all the other “

Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
the most general transfer response is just the simple polynomial in the de
roots as it as degrees. In other words, the transfer response can be written as:
ominator. This polynomial can be factored into as many complex

(1-11 ( N )*...*( )*( )*( )) / (

cause a zero in the denominator of the transfer response causes the transfer
case, he roots of the polynomial are called the poles of the transfer response be
The coefficients may be complex, rather than real, numbers. In this

UNIFIED FILTER THEORY

up,” frequencies are constrained to be real numbers, and therefore it is relatively
it is ossible to choose coefficients that cause the transfer function to “blow
he poles in the transfer response are analogous to the tent poles.While
re ponse as the canvas of a circus tent in the context of complex numbers, and
esponse to go to infinity at that point. One can visualize the transfer
asy to avoid the complex pole locations.
Consider the special case of a recursive filter where

b
1
1)
hen, Equation 1-3 becomes
α Output
=
1−Z * (α −1) −1 Input

Output *α = (1−Z * (α −1) −1)*Output

Output* 1−Z * (α −1) +Input *α =Input

the output ne bar ago:Outputhen, using the conventional notation that

]1[ equals

(1-12 [1utput *α 1)nput * utput

-hand side of Equation 1-11 sum to 1 so that the filter has no noise gain.
moving average EMA(. ote that the sum of all of the coefficients on the right
Equation 1-12 is exactly the equation for an exponential
 ‫‪Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫–‪2‬‬

‫–‪4‬‬

‫–‪6‬‬

‫–‪8‬‬

‫– ‪10‬‬

‫– ‪12‬‬
‫‪E ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS CYCL‬‬

‫– ‪14‬‬

‫– ‪16‬‬

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‫– ‪18‬‬

‫– ‪20‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪Frequency‬‬

‫‪Exponential Moving Average Frequency Response for 0.21.3‬‬ ‫‪IGU‬‬

‫‪0‬‬
‫‪EMA is a type of low-pass filter, passing the lower-frequency components‬‬
‫‪Figure 1.3 shows the frequency response of the EMA when alpha 0.2. The‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺗﻬﺎ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻢ ﺟﻌﻞ‬
‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎﺃﺻﻐﺮ‪ ،‬ﻓﺴﻴﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺮﻭﺭ‪،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺫﻟﻚ‪،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻢ ﺟﻌﻞ ﺃﻟﻔﺎ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ‪ ،‬ﻓﺴﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺃﻗﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ‬
‫ﺃﻛﺒﺮﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺮﻭﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺮﺝ‪ .‬ﻻ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ‬
‫ﺃﺻﻔﺎﺭ)ﺃﻭ ﺃﻗﻄﺎﺏ( ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﻴﺘﻢﺍﺷﺘﻘﺎﻕ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ‪ EMA‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ‪.2‬‬
‫(‪Amplitude )dB‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﻣﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻤﻢ ﻛﻼً ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻂ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ 3-1‬ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ‬

‫ﺃﻭﺳﻊﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺑﺨﻼﻑ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻌﺾﺍﻷﺳﻤﺎء ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻌﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺄﻟﻮﻓﺔ ﻟﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻤﻤﺔ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭﻱ )‪(AA‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭﻱ )‪(A IMA‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬

 ‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾﺑﺎﻟﺘﺮﺍﺩﻑ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻳﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺨﺮﺝ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻦ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ‬

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‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺑﺒﺴﺎﻃﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬
‫‪.3-1‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺑﺮﻣﺠﺔﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻣﻦﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ "ﺣﺎﺉﻄﻴﺔ" ﺗﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻧﻄﺎﻕﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻭﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺗﻮﻗﻒ ﻣﻊ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺣﺮﺟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺳﻠﺲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺰﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻗﺪﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﺪﻯ ‪ ata‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺣﺮﺟﺔ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ‬

‫‪UNIFIED FILTER THEORY‬‬

‫ﻟﻬﺎﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً ﻭﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺇﺿﻌﺎﻑﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً ﻓﻘﻂ‪ .‬ﺳﺘﻤﺮﺭ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﺮﻛﺰ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﺘﺮﻓﺾﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻭﺍﻹﻳﻘﺎﻑ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﺮﻛﺰ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﻴﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎءﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺗﺴُﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻂﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﺨُﺘﺰﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ 3-1‬ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‪:13-1‬‬

‫ﺏ‪+0‬ﺏ‪*1‬ﺯ ‪+1-‬ﺏ‪*2‬ﺯ‪2-‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬

‫‪(1-13‬‬ ‫=‬
‫‪2-‬‬
‫ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺃ‪+0‬ﺃ‪*1‬ﺯ‪+1-‬ﺃ‪*2‬ﺯ‬

‫* ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ]‪ ،[1‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﺟﺒﺮﻳﺎً‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡﺍﻟﺘﺪﻭﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ‬
‫ﺑﺘﺮﺗﻴﺐﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ ،13-1‬ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﻟﻠﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‪:14-1‬‬

‫‪(1-14‬‬ ‫* ﻣﺪﺧﻞ * ﻣﺪﺧﻞ]‪ * [1‬ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ]‪— [2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪[2‬‬ ‫* ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪* [1‬‬

‫ﻗﺒﻞﺃﻥ ﻧﺤﺪﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺤﺴﺐ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺜﻮﺍﺑﺖ‬

‫ﻣﻦﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻳﻮﻧﺎﺕ‪،‬ﺣﺠﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﺜﻴﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺟﺎﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﻛﻮﺱ)ﻙ*‪/360‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ( ‪+‬ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻴﺉﺔ)ﻙ*‪/360‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ( ‪1−‬‬

‫‪(1-15‬‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ=‬
‫ﻛﻮﺱ)ﻙ*‪/360‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ(‬
 ‫‪1‬ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺃﺣﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ‬ ‫ﺃﻳﻦ‬
‫‪0.707‬ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ ‪1.414‬‬
‫ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫)‪(1-16‬‬ ‫‪1-2‬‬ ‫ﺳﻲ= ‪-‬‬
‫ﻏﺎﻣﺎ ﻏﺎﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ‪/*360‬ﺇﻳﺮﻭﺩ( ﻭﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻳﻦ‬
‫ﻛﺠﺰءﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﻭ‬

‫‪(1-17‬‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ‪/360‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺣﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺜﻮﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﻷﻧﻮﺍﻉ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ‪.1.1‬‬
‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ ﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﻴﻦ ﺃﺣﺎﺩﻳﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ ﻣﺘﺼﻠﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞﺗﺴﻠﺴﻠﻲ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺗﺮﺷﻴﺢ ﺧﺮﺝ ﺗﻢ ﺗﺮﺷﻴﺤﻪ ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎً ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ‪ 3‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ 15-1‬ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺣﺪ ﺃﻟﻔﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 0.5‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﻴﻦ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻠﻲ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﺇﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﻟﻠﺘﺎﺟﺮ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﺃﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺮﻭﻃﻴﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﺴﻠﺴﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻲﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ‪ 1.1‬ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻌﻘﻴﺪﺍً ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺟﻮﺓ ﺍﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺧﺮﺝ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻗﻲ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢ‪ EMA‬ﺑﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺣﺮﺟﺔ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻤﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺜﺎﻝ ﺁﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫ﺩﻣﺞﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻹﻧﺸﺎء ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻧﻄﺎﻗﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺳﻊﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻟﻠﻐﺎﻳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻨﻄﺒﻖﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ‪ 1.1‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺇﻳﻘﺎﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‪.‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ‪ ،1.1‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺇﻳﻘﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮﺓ ﻷﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ‪1.1‬‬

‫ﻧﻮﻉﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ‬
‫)‪1‬‬ ‫ﻭﻛﺎﻟﺔﺍﻷﺩﻭﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺑﻴﺔ‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫* )‪1‬‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ‬

‫)‪1‬‬ ‫)‪ 1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪2/‬‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪2/‬‬ ‫)‪1‬‬ ‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮﺓﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫)‪1‬‬ ‫* )‪1‬‬ ‫‪2/‬‬ ‫)‪1‬‬ ‫‪2/‬‬ ‫* )‪1‬‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪2/‬‬ ‫)‪1‬‬ ‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ‬

‫) * ‪1− λ‬‬ ‫‪2/‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2/‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻳﻂﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ‬

‫) * ‪1− λ‬‬ ‫‪2/‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫* )‪1/2‬‬ ‫‪2/‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻗﻒﺍﻟﻔﺮﻗﺔ‬

 ‫ﻣﻦﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﺳﻢ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺸﻖ‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺿﻌﺎﻑ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ‬
‫ﺿﻴﻖﻟﻠﻐﺎﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﻹﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﺨﻄﻮﻁ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺑﺘﺮﺩﺩ ‪60‬‬
‫ﻫﺮﺗﺰﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺕ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ .‬ﺗﻤﻴﻞ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺆﻗﺘﺔ ﻭﻟﺪﻳﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻧﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕﺗﺮﺩﺩﻳﺔ ﻏﺎﻣﻀﺔ ﻟﻠﻐﺎﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺠﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺐ ﺭﻓﻀﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻨﻌﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺣﺘﻰﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻄﻮﺭﺍً ﻹﻳﻘﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻧﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻳﻘﺎﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﻳﻀﺔﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً ﻻ ﺗﺒﺪﻭ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻭﻫﺬﺍﺃﻣﺮ ﻣﺆﺳﻒ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻞ ﻷﻥ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻌﺰﻝ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﻧﻬﺞﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻴﺮ ﻟﻼﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺴﻔﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ )ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ(‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﻳﺘﻢﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﻴﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻓﺤﺺ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻠﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﻴﻴﻦ ﻹﺟﺮﺍء ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﺘﻜﻮﻥ‬

‫‪UNIFIED FILTER THEORY‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺎﺕﻣﻦ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻮﺭ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺴﺐ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎً‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻘﻂ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﻮﺭﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺤﺺ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺑﺪﻻ ًﻣﻦ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺳﻌﺔﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﻳﺸﺒﻪ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺒﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺉﻲ ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ‪ 60‬ﻭﺍﺕ ﺑﺪﻻ ً‬
‫ﻣﻦﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ‪ 115‬ﻓﻮﻟﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺗﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻔﺤﺺ‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔﻭﺍﺳﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺩﺓً‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﻗﻴﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻮﻏﺎﺭﻳﺘﻤﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﺘﻤﺜﻴﻞﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﻴﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬
‫ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎًﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬

‫‪*20‬ﺃﻭﺝ‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪*10‬ﺃﻭﺝ‪* )10‬‬

‫ﺑﻌﺾﺍﻟﺴﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻴﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﺬﻛﺮ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪0.707 Amplitude‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬ﻗﻮﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ‬

‫‪0.5 Amplitude‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬ﻗﻮﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ‬

‫‪0.316 Amplitude‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬ﻗﻮﺓ‬ ‫‪0‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫‪0‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ = ‪ 0.01‬ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ = ‪ 0.1‬ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ‬

‫‪Key Points to Remember‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫‪have a transfer response that an be written as a ratio of two polynomials.‬‬

‫‪. All the common filters useful for traders‬‬
 ‫‪using more input data, but more input data increases lag. Sophisticated‬‬
‫‪. L g is very important to traders. More complex filters can be created‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﻣﻔﻴﺪﺓ ﺟﺪﺍً ﻟﻠﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻷﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﺘﺴﺒﺐ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ‪.‬‬
‫‪.‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻧﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻭﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﻔﺲﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻼﺣﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺃﻥ ﺗﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺻﻔﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪،‬‬
‫ﻣﻤﺎﻳﺘﻴﺢ ﺍﻹﻟﻐﺎء ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪.5‬ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻇﺮﺓ ﺣﻮﻝ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ‪f‬‬
‫ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥﻟﻬﺎ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪.6‬ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺳﻼﺳﺔ ﻷﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺿﻌﺎﻑ‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪.‬‬

‫‪.‬ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺑﻤﺜﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﻟﻼﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻷﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺿﻌﺎﻑ‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻟﻼﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪.‬ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ‪ and-pass‬ﺑﻤﺜﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﻭﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﻷﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺇﺿﻌﺎﻑﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻏﻮﺑﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪.‬ﻻ ﺗﻘﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺇﻻ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻮﻳﻞ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻞﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﺑﺤﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺗﻔﺴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺫﺭﻭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍء‪،‬ﻭﺫﺭﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻋﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ .‬ﻭﻻﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ‬
‫ﺻﺤﺔﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺉﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﻌﻴﺪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪.‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫ﻣﻠﺤﻮﻇﺎﺕ‬

‫‪.1‬ﺃﻧﺠﻴﺖ ﻙ‪ .‬ﻣﻴﺘﺮﺍ‪،‬ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﻤﻴﺔ‪،‬ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ )ﻋﻤﻞ‪ :‬ﻣﺎﻛﺠﺮﻭ ﻫﻴﻞ‪،‬‬

‫‪ ،(2000‬ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻢ ‪.4.5.2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞﻫﻮ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺸﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺳﻤُﻲ ﺑﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺳﻢ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻟﻜﺴﻨﺪﺭ‬
‫ﺟﺮﺍﻫﺎﻡﺑﻴﻞ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻘﻮﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‬
‫ﻣﻦﻛﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﺗﻒ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺕ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫ﻟﻺﻧﺴﺎﻥﺍﻛﺘﺸﺎﻓﻪ‪.‬‬
 ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪.‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‪.‬‬
‫‪ John Wiley & Sons, Inc.‬ﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2013‬ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ‪© 2013 John F. Ehlers.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤ‬

‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ؟‬
‫ﻗﺎﻝﺗﻮﻡ ﺑﺤﺪﺓ‪" :‬ﺃﻃﻔﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ"‪.‬‬

‫ﺗﺘﻢﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺟﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﺒﺴﺎﻃﺔ ﻷﻧﻬﺎ‬

‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻣﻴﺰﺓ ﻛﻮﻧﻬﺎ ﺳﻬﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﻋﻴﺒﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻓﻬﻮﺃﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻗﺪﺭﺍً ﺿﺉﻴﻼً ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺮﻭﻓﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﻳﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ‬

‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ )‪(SMAs‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﺗﻌﺪ‪ SMAs‬ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻳﺔﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻣﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺃﻱ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺮﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺧﺮﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﺗﻘﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺠﺎﻫﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱﻷﻗﺪﻡ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺃﺣﺪﺙ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻛﺴﺮﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﻬﻮﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ "ﻣﺘﺤﺮﻙ"‪ .‬ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺑﺴﺎﻃﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲﻳﻌُﺘﺒﺮ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎً ﻣﺘﺤﺮﻛﺎً ﺑﺴﻴﻄﺎً‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺁﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ "ﻧﺎﻓﺬﺓ" ﺗﻤﺮ ﻋﺒﺮ ﻣﺠﺮﻯ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺛﺎﺑﺖ‪ .‬ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺿﻤﻦ‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﻘﺪﻳﻤﻬﺎ ﻛﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ .‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ ﺃﺟﻬﺰﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﺒﻴﻮﺗﺮﺍﻟﺤﺪﻳﺜﺔ ﺳﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﺟﺪﺍً‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻨﻲ ﺃﻭﺻﻲ ﺑﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮ ﻷﻧﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ‬
 ‫ﺇﺫﺍﺗﻢ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺒﺮ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺴﻮﻑ ﺗﻔﺸﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﺪﻧﺮﻏﺐ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻌﻞ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻳﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻜﻴﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺐ‬
‫ﺃﻭﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﻨﺒﻀﺔ ‪ n‬ﻫﻲ ﻛﺎﺉﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻧﻈﺮﻱ ﻟﻪ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺻﻔﺮﻱ ﻭﺛﻤﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻻ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻧﻬﺎﺉﻴﺔ‪.‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻧﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪،‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻚﺃﻥ ﺗﻔﻜﺮ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻛﻤﺼﻔﻘﺔ ﺗﻀﺮﺏ ﺟﺮﺳﺎً ‪ -‬ﻳﻮﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﺠﺮﺱ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻧﻴﻦﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺮﻧﻴﻦ ﻫﻮ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺮﺱ ﻟﻠﻨﺒﻀﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺃﻧﻈﻤﺔﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﺃﺧﺬ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﺒﻀﺔ ﻛﺪﻓﻖ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﻟﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻭﻟﻪ ﺃﺻﻔﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﺑﺘﺤﺮﻳﻚ ﻧﺎﻓﺬﺓ ‪ SMA‬ﻋﺒﺮ ﻣﺠﺮﻯ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺒﻀﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﺳﻴﺼﺪﺭﺧﺮﺟﺎً ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻘﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺒﻀﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﻧﺎﻓﺬﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﻨﺒﻀﺔ ﻟـ ‪ SMA‬ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ‪ SMA‬ﻫﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺒﻀﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﻭﺩﺓ )‪.(FIR‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮﺽﺃﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺒﺪﺃ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺟﻌﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ‬
‫ﺑﻪﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﻧﺴﺐ ﻟﺨﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻘﻄﺘﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ‬
‫ﻗﺪﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺤﻴﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺤﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺩﻧﻰ‪.‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺧﻤﺲ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻬﺎﺱﻧﺤﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻛﺘﺐﺍﻟﻮﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫]ﺍﻧﺖﺱ‪) -‬ﻣﻜﺲ‪+‬ﺏ([‪2‬‬ ‫ﻑ=∑‬
‫ﺱ= ‪2−‬‬

‫ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺃﺧﺬ ﻣﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭ‬
‫ﻭﺿﺒﻂﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻧﻔﻌﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ‪ ،‬ﻧﺠﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔﻟـ ﻫﻲ ﻣﺠﺮﺩ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺨﻤﺲ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺻﺤﻴﺢ ﺑﻐﺾ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺨﻤﺲ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺨﺘﺎﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﻣﺮﺍﺩﻓﺎً ﻹﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺧﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺠﺎﻫﻞ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ .‬ﺃﺟﺪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺭﺍﺉﻌﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﻌﺮﻭﻓﺔ ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﺃﻇﻬﺮﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭ ﻟﻪ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺣﻮﻝﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻩ ﻭﺑﻄﻮﻝ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺒﻂ‬
‫‪ .2 / (1‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ ‪ SMA‬ﻫﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً‬
‫ﺻﺤﻴﺢﺃﻥ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ‪ SMA‬ﻫﻮ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً‬

‫‪2 / (1‬‬

‫ﺗﺘﻜﺮﺭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ 8-1‬ﻫﻨﺎ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻟـ ‪.SMA‬‬

 (‫ ﻑ‬π‫ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻴﺉﺔ)ﻥ‬
(2-1 = (‫ﻑ‬π2)‫ﺡ‬
(‫ﻑ‬π)‫ﻧﺴﻴﻦ‬

‫ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ‬.‫ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺪ‬1 ‫ ﺇﻟﻰ‬1-2 ‫ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬،‫ﺗﺮﺩﺩﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ‬

Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
‫ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﻹﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﻴﻪ‬.SMA ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻭﺭﻟـ‬
‫ ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ‬.‫ﻃﺎﻗﺔﺧﺮﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻧﺼﻒ ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ‬
‫ ﻓﻨﺤﻦ ﻣﻬﺘﻤﻮﻥ ﺑﺈﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔﺗﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥﻓﻴﻪ ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺮﺝ‬
Critical Period

‫ ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬،‫ ﻭﺑﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ‬.(0.5 ‫ )ﺍﻟﺠﺬﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﻟـ‬ave 0.707 ‫ﺗﺒﻠﻎﺳﻌﺔ‬

.‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﻣﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﺑﺴﻴﻂ ﻳﻤﻨﺤﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺴﻌﻰ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‬
‫ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﻭﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬2.1 ‫ﻳﻮﺿﺢﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬
.‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ‬
‫ﺇﻧﻪﺗﻘﺮﻳﺐ ﻣﻌﻘﻮﻝ ﻭﺳﻬﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺬﻛﺮ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙ‬

SMAS, EMAS, OR OTHER?

.‫ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂﻫﻲ ﺿﻌﻒ ﻃﻮﻟﻪ‬
response occurs the when the argument n the numerator has a value of
be at a maxi mum, or N. / 1f This occurs when π he first zero in the transfer
band occurs when he argument in the numerator causes the sine function to
in the numerator are integer multiples of .The first maximum in the stop
isf Subsequent zeros in the transfer response occur when the argument
7 3 / 2. At this frequency the value of the transfer response
the same reason, the ext maximum in the stop band occurs at
the attenuation is 2 / )5f pproximately 2 / )3 , or 13.3 decibels )dB(. For
(, or 7.8 dB.This amount of attenuation is not substantial, andπ5 / 2, and
ou will see methods to modify an SMA to improve its filtering capability.

30

25

20

15

10

0
12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
SMA Length

SMA Critical Period as a Function of Filter LengthFIGURE 2.1

 xponential Moving Averages ) As( -

must have the value of one minus alpha.The equation to compute an EMA is:
zero and one. The two fractions must sum to unity, so the second fraction

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ago. The first raction is usually called alpha, and can have a value between
price added to the complementary fraction of the EMA calculation one bar
An EMA is computed by taking a fraction of the current

(2-2 1 ( * EMA]1[)Price * EMA

average by moving from bar to bar, from left to right, across the price data.
CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS

The EMA becomes a moving

price value is zero, and so the sequence of calculations is:
there was no previous value for the EMA. On subsequent calculations, the
EMA is applied to these data, the first output rom the filter is unity because
the input data set has only one sample at an am litude of 1 / . When the
magine a case where

1 MA)0(
1) MA)1(
8
1) 1) * 1) EMA)2(
1) − 1) * 1) EMA)3(
.
1) EMA)

must be less than one, the amplitude decays as Since the quantity )1
EMA part of a general class of filters called infinite impulse response )IIR( filters.
the contribution becomes van ishingly small.This attribute makes an
principle, a part of any data input emains in subsequent calculations, although
from an impulse input, hence he name exponential moving average. In
he exponent of each succeeding calculation
he first bar, the EMA will have a value of . On the second bar, the value
suddenly jumps up to a value of 1 and maintains that value thereafter. On
of constant values. Assume the price has been zero for a long time and then
function has a series of constant values and then jumps to another series
t is instructive to examine the EMA response to a step function. A step
ill be * )1 . On the third bar, the value will be * )1
 , and so on. The EMA will gradually approach the value of1. 1) *
letting the computer do the work, I know the two terms must sum correctly.
the value as a global variable and write out the EMA equation in terms of By
that the two terms sum to unity. I am so cautious on this point that I assign

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computer to crash.You should always check your computer code to ensure
the recursive algorithm will lead to erratic results or might even cause your
another number for )1 − , such as .9.The two terms must sum to unity or
error in programming is to insert a value for such as .2, and inserting
A common
ous EMA would have a value of ) .We can assert that the price on day “d” is
of the MA is “L,” then the current value of the EMA is ) . Further, the previ
1(, since price is rising one unit per If we assume the lag
bar. Putting these values into the equation for the EMA, we obtain

SMAS, EMAS, OR OTHER?

(1 − )*( 1) *
(1 ) * * 1 ( − )*
1 (1 )*
(1 )/1
9
we can accept a three-bar lag resulting from the EMA, we would use0.25.
lag and, from that ag, compute the alpha term of the EMA. For example, if
This equation shows that we can select an acceptable
tatic lags. Recalling that the lag of an SMA is ) 1( / 2 for an -bar SMA,
e can also relate an EMA to an SMA on the basis of their equivalent
e can substitute this value of lag into the alpha calculation of the EMA as

(1 2/(1 )) / 1
(2-3 (2 (1 )) / 2
(1 + ) / 2

is quoted in most technical analysis books.The frequency responses of a

This is the relationship between an -bar SMA and the alpha of an EMA that
2.3 hows that the lags of the SMA and EMA are equal only at zero frequency.
ve-bar SMA and its EMA equivalent are compared in Figure 2.2. Figure
culation for the fraction by examining the transfer response of the EMA.
of the EMA is not aligned with that of the SMA.We can obtain a better cal
Although the lags at static frequencies align, note that the critical period
rary for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons Licenseley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online LibDownloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wi
0
FIGURE2.2

FIGURE2.3
imilar EMA

Five-Bar SMA
0.5 –
20 –

25 –

30 –

35 –

40 –
15 –
10 –

2.5

0.5
1.5
5–
0

0
0

0
Frequency Response Comparison of a Five-Bar SMA and
0.05

0.05

ag Response of EMA Compared to a Constant Two-Bar Lag of

0.1

0.1
0.15

0.15
0.2

0.2
Frequency

Frequency
0.25

0.25
0.3

0.3
0.35

0.35
0.4

0.4
0.45

0.45
0.5

0.5
g )bars(La Amplitude )dB(
ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS CYCLE
 eighted Moving Averages )WMAs( -

It appears that theWMA was invented by a trader who did not have a firm
rasp of filter theory in hopes of reducing lag.

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the center point of the filter.The most recent data sample is weighted
WMA is an FIR filter having coefficients asymmetrically weighted about
less, and so on. The weighting does not necessarily have to be linear with the
ost heavily, the second most recent data sample weighted somewhat
ple, I will use a five-elementWMA whose coefficients are ]5 4 3 2 1[ / 15.
ata sample, but that is the most common usage. For our graphical exam
Amplitude )dB(

the frequency response of this filter, and Figure 2.5 shows ts lag response.
igure 2.4 shows
band than the equivalent EMA shown in Figure 2.3. In short, a WMA
SMA shown in Figure 2.2 and that a WMA has more lag in the pass

SMAS, EMAS, OR OTHER?

Figure 2.4 shows that a WMA has poorer attenuation than the equivaent
little to recommend itself compared to the other common moving verages.
as

1
0

5–

10 –

15 –

20 –

25 –

30 –

35 –

40 –
0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0
Frequency

AWMA Has Poor Rejection in Its Transfer Response FIGURE2.4

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‫‪1.5‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪0.5‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫– ‪0.5‬‬
‫‪ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS CYCLE‬‬

‫–‪1‬‬

‫– ‪1.5‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﻻﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻟﺪﻯ ‪ ag of Five-Element WMA‬ﺃﻱ ﺧﺼﺎﺉﺺ ﺑﺎﺭﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪2.5‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬

‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙﺃﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺿﻮﺿﺎء ﻧﺒﻀﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺠﻢ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﻣﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ ﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺮﻁ‬
‫ﻓﻲﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻘﻮﻡﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﺒﺴﺎﻃﺔ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ ﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻣﻦﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﺳﻬﻞ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﻋﺪﺩﻓﺮﺩﻱ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻟﺘﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪،‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮﺽﺃﻥ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺗﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺭﺑﻊ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪1‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﻴﻨﺔﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ .6‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﺄﻱ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺪ‬
‫(‪Lag )bars‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺐ‪،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ‪ 1‬ﻓﻘﻂ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ‪،1‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﺬﺍﻫﻮ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺤﺪﺙ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻏﻠﺐ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔﻫﻲ )‪ .2 5 / (6 4‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺷﻮﻫﺖ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞﻛﺒﻴﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ "ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ" ﻫﻲ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻦﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪ -‬ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺭﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻋﻀﺎء‬
‫‪.1‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺪﺩ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻭﺭ ﻟـ ‪ SMA‬ﻫﻲ ﺿﻌﻒ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً‪.‬‬

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‫‪.‬ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻟـ ‪ SMA‬ﺑﻄﻮﻝ ‪ n‬ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﻗﺪﺭﻩ )‪ 2 / (1‬ﺑﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺈﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪) +‬‬ ‫‪.‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺩﺍﺉﻤﺎً ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ‪ EMA‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ‪* EMA‬‬
‫‪.‬ﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐﺍﻷﺧﻄﺎء ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ [‪1 * MA]1‬‬

‫‪.4‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ ﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ EMA‬ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻓﺊ ﻟﻄﻮﻝ ‪SMA‬‬

‫ﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ‪.(1) / 2‬‬
‫‪.‬ﺇﻥ ‪ WMA‬ﻻ ﺗﻤﺘﻠﻚ ﺃﻱ ﻓﻀﻴﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪.‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺿﻮﺿﺎء‬
‫ﻧﺒﻀﻴﺔﺃﻭ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻳﻌﺪ ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺠﻢ‬
‫ﺃﺣﺪﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺪ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪.‬‬

‫?‪SMAS, EMAS, OR OTHER‬‬

‫‪3‬‬
 ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪.‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‪.‬‬
‫‪ John Wiley & Sons, Inc.‬ﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2013‬ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ‪© 2013 John F. Ehlers.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬

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‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢ‬
‫ﻥﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻄﺎﺕ‬
‫"ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻄﺎﺕ ﻣﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﻟﻠﺮﺟﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﺮﻳﺪﻭﻥ ﺧﺪﺍﻉ‬
‫ﺧﺼﻮﻣﻬﻢ‪ "،‬ﻗﺎﻝ ﺗﻮﻡ ﺑﻘﻮﺓ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻬﺪﻑﻣﻦ ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻗﺔ‬

‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻫﻮ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‪.‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﻌﻮﺩ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻟﺘﻔﺴﻴﺮ ﻧﺘﺎﺉﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ .‬ﻻ‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﻷﻱ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻲ‪ .‬ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻷﻱ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻫﺬﻩﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺗﻔﺴﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻲ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺃﻱﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭ ﻟﻪ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻇﺮﺓ ﺣﻮﻝ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻭﻟﻪ‬
‫ﺣﺪﻭﺩﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩﻳﺔ ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻪ ﺩﺍﺉﻤﺎً ﺟﺬﺭ ﻟﻠﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ‬
‫ﻧﻴﻜﻮﻳﺴﺖ‪.‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﻬﻢ ﻷﻧﻪ‬
‫ﺇﻥﺭﻓﺾ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻜﻮﻥ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺧﺮﺝ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻳﻘﻄﻊ ﺷﻮﻃﺎً‬
‫ﻃﻮﻳﻼ ًﻧﺤﻮ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺍﻟﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻈﺮﺍًﻷﻥ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻛﺜﻴﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺃﻗﻞ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻣﺜﻞ ‪ 2‬ﻭ‪ 4‬ﻭ‪ 6‬ﻭ‪ 8‬ﻭ‪ 10‬ﻭﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰﺫﻟﻚ ﺳﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻧﺼﻒ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺟﺔﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺳﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﺘﺄﺧﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭﻫﺎ ‪ 0.5‬ﻭ‪ 1.5‬ﻭ‪ 2.5‬ﻭ‪3.5‬‬
‫ﻭ‪4.5‬ﺑﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﻻ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻓﺤﺴﺐ‪،‬‬
‫ﺑﻞﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺤﻤﻠﻪ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪ / [ . .‬ﺗﻢ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻤﻪ ﻟﻮﺻﻒ‬ ‫ﺗﺪﻭﻳﻦﺍﻻﺧﺘﺰﺍﻝ‪] ،‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻳﺼﻒ ]‪ 4 / [1 1 1 1‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ )‪ .(SMA‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻮﺍﻓﻖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻣﻊ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺻﻔﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻧﻴﻜﻮﻳﺴﺖ‪.‬ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ .3.1‬ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺔﻣﻦ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ )ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ‪ (0.25‬ﻣﺮﻓﻮﺿﺔ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﻫﻮ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ‪ 3‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ‬
‫ﻓﻲﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ‪ .‬ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ‪ 3‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ ﻣﺤﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺇﺿﻌﺎﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺮﺝﻟﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻧﺼﻒ ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﻫﻮ ‪.0.25‬‬
‫ﺗﺒﻠﻎﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 0.1‬ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ‬
‫‪10‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺧﺎﺻﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺮﻳﻄﻴﻦ ﻭﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻣﻦﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 12-‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ )‪ ،(dB‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ‬
‫(‪Amplitude )dB‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺪﺍﻟﺨﺮﺝ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 25‬ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺎﺉﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻞ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻃﻮﻝ ‪SMA‬‬
‫ﻳﻘﻮﺩﻧﺎﺇﻟﻰ ﻓﺤﺺ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭ ﻣﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺳﺘﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ‬
‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻫﻲ ]‪ .6 / [1 1 1 1 1 1‬ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪ .3.2‬ﺇﻥ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻛﺜﻴﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺃﺩﺧﻠﺖ ﺻﻔﺮﺍً ﺁﺧﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻛﺜﻴﺮﺓ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎً ﻣﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺷﺮﻳﻄﻴﻦﻭﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻭﺧﻤﺴﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﺨﺮﺝ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻳﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﺑﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺍﻟﺮﻓﺾ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺺ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫–‪5‬‬

‫‪10 -‬‬

‫‪15 -‬‬

‫‪20 -‬‬

‫‪25 -‬‬

‫‪30 -‬‬

‫‪35 -‬‬

‫‪40 -‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭ ]‪4 / [1 1 1 1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪3.1‬‬

 ‫‪rary for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons Licenseley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online LibDownloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wi‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫–‪5‬‬

‫‪10 -‬‬

‫‪15 -‬‬

‫‪20 -‬‬

‫‪IDS SMOOTHING FILTERS ON STERO‬‬

‫‪25 -‬‬

‫‪30 -‬‬

‫‪35 -‬‬

‫‪40 -‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭ ]‪6 / [1 1 1 1 1 1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪3.2‬‬

‫‪7‬‬
‫ﺗﻢﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﻟﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻃﻔﻴﻒ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺺ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺁﺧﺮ‪ .‬ﺗﻢ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻬﺬﺍﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑـ ‪ SMA‬ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻟﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ‪ 13.7‬ﺑﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻻﺗﻘﺘﺼﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ‪ .SMAs‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺮﺟﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﺣﻮﻝ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺃﺑﺴﻂ ﻫﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻪ ]‪ .6 / [1 2 2 1‬ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻬﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ .3.3‬ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭ‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺐ )ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪،(3.1‬‬
‫ﻧﺮﻯﺃﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻓﻮﺿﺔ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎً ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺷﺮﻳﻄﻴﻦﻭﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﺇﻧﻬﺎ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺮﻳﻄﻴﻦ ﻭﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔﺇﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺗﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﻓﺾ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺣﺪ ﺃﺩﻧﻰ ﻳﺒﻠﻎ ‪5 −‬‬
‫ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ‪،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ 5.6‬ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺎﺉﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻌﺔ‬
‫(‪Amplitude )dB‬‬

‫ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝﻓﻲ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺮﻓﺾ ﻫﺬﺍ‪ .‬ﻳﺄﺗﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ‪ 7.4‬ﺑﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻳﻈﻞ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ‪ 2.5‬ﺑﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻦﺧﻼﻝ ﺧﺒﺮﺗﻨﺎ ﻣﻊ ‪ ،SMAs‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺗﺤﺴﻴﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﻭﺗﻮﻫﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻧﻄﺎﻕﺍﻟﺮﻓﺾ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ )ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ(‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭ ]‪ 12 / [1 2 3 3 2 1‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫‪.3.4‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎً ﻣﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺷﺮﻳﻄﻴﻦﻭﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻭﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺷﺮﻳﻄﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺮﺝ‬
rary for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons Licenseley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online LibDownloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wi
8
3.3‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬

3.4‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬
20 -

25 -

30 -

35 -

40 -

20 -

25 -

30 -

35 -

40 -
15 -

15 -
10 -

10 -
5–

5–
0

0
0

0
6 / [1 2 2 1] ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭ‬

12 / [1 2 3 3 2 1] ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭ‬

0.05

0.05
0.1

0.1
0.15

0.15
0.2

0.2
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬
0.25

0.25
0.3

0.3
0.35

0.35
0.4

0.4
0.45

0.45
0.5

0.5
de )dB( Amplitu Amplitude )dB(
ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS CYCLE
 ‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﻭﺍﻟﺮﻓﺾ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻻ ﻳﺰﺍﻝ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 5‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ‪ .‬ﺗﻢ ﺗﺤﺴﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺷﻴﺢﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﺗﻢ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺗﻬﺎ ﻟﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ‪ 10.9‬ﺑﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ‬
‫ﻛﻞﻫﺬﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ‪ 3.5‬ﺑﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﻴﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺟﻴﺪ ﺟﺪﺍً‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﻌﻤﻞ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ‪.‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦﺍﻟﺤﻘﺎﺉﻖ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻴﺮﺓ ﻟﻼﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻢ ﻗﻄﻊ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮﺓ ﻟـ‬
‫‪ SMA‬ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺯﻭﺟﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺼﻒ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﻀﻤﻦ ﺻﻔﺮﺍً ﻣﺰﺩﻭﺟﺎً ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻧﻴﻜﻮﻳﺴﺖ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻟـ ‪ SMA‬ﺑﺨﻤﺴﺔ‬

‫‪SMOOTHING FILTERS ON STEROIDS‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ)ﺃﺭﺑﻊ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ( ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﻣﺜﻞ ]‪ .4 / [0.5 1 1 1 0.5‬ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ‬
‫(‪Amplitude )dB‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞﻟـ ‪ SMA‬ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻝ ﺑﺨﻤﺴﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 3.5‬ﺃﻭ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ‬

‫‪ SMA‬ﺑﺄﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻣﻮﺿﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ .3.1‬ﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺻﻔﺮ ﻣﺰﺩﻭﺝ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻧﻴﻜﻮﻳﺴﺖ ﻭﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻨﺎﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﺑﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﻧﻰ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮﻳﻦ ﻟﻴﻜﻮﻥ ‪20‬‬
‫ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ‪،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺮﺝ ﻫﻲ ‪ 10‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺉﺔ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﺤﺴﻦ‬

‫‪9‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫–‪5‬‬

‫‪10 -‬‬

‫‪15 -‬‬

‫‪20 -‬‬

‫‪25 -‬‬

‫‪30 -‬‬

‫‪35 -‬‬

‫‪40 -‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺑﺴﻴﻄﺔ ﻣﻌﺪﻟﺔ ﺑﺨﻤﺴﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪3.5‬‬

‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺍﻻﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‬
 ‫‪rary for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons Licenseley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online LibDownloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wi‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫–‪5‬‬

‫‪10 -‬‬

‫‪15 -‬‬

‫‪20 -‬‬

‫‪25 -‬‬
‫‪ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS CYCLE‬‬

‫‪30 -‬‬

‫‪35 -‬‬

‫‪40 -‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪3.6‬‬

‫ﻳﺄﺗﻲﺃﺩﺍء ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺷﻴﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻷﻧﻨﺎ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﻠﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﻣﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﻣﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻤﺴﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻈﻬﺮﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻳﺔ ﻟـ ‪ SMAs‬ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻟﺔ ﺑﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﻭﺧﻤﺴﺔ ﻭﺳﺒﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺗﺴﻌﺔﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪.3.6‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺮﻯ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﺑﺪﻻ ًﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ ﻷﻗﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻝ ﻣﻊ ‪،SMA‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ ﻷﻗﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺗﺮﺑﻴﻌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﺬﺍﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻻﻧﺤﻨﺎء ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺃﺛﻨﺎء ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺃﻓﻀﻞﻣﻼءﻣﺔ ﻷﻗﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﻫﻲ‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫(‪Amplitude )dB‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﺼﻒﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺰﺩﻭﺝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻧﻴﻜﻮﻳﺴﺖ‪ .‬ﻳﻌﻄﻲ ﻫﺎﻣﻴﻨﺞ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫]‪6 1 96 / [7 24 34 24 7‬‬

‫‪52 / [1 6 12 1412‬‬

‫‪544 / [1‬‬ ‫‪28 78 108 118 108 78 281‬‬

‫‪980 / [11‬‬ ‫‪18 88 138 168 178 168 138 88 181‬‬

 ‫‪rary for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons Licenseley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online LibDownloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wi‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫–‪5‬‬

‫‪10 -‬‬

‫‪15 -‬‬

‫‪20 -‬‬

‫‪IDS SMOOTHING FILTERS ON STERO‬‬

‫‪25 -‬‬

‫‪30 -‬‬

‫‪35 -‬‬

‫‪40 -‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺮﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪3.7‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺗﻈﻬﺮﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ .3.7‬ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 3.7‬ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻫﻲ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﻣﺘﻔﻮﻗﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺿﺢﻟﻠﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪ .‬ﺗﺘﺤﻤﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻴﻦ ﻭﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻭﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﻭﺧﻤﺴﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻟﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﻛﺜﺮﺳﻼﺳﺔ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﻣﻦﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺧﺮﺓ ﻭﻧﻄﺎﻕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻒﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺴﺄﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺒﺴﻴﻂﺣﺴﺎﺑﻲ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺟﺔﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﺗﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫(‪Amplitude )dB‬‬

‫ﻧﻔﺲﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻋﺒﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺗﺸﻮﻳﻪﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ ﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪ .‬ﻳﺤﺪﺙ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﺇﺿﻌﺎﻓﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻮﻳﻪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻃﻔﻴﻔﺎً ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢ‪ Butterworth‬ﻫﻮ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻨﺎﻇﺮﻱ ﻣﻔﻀﻞ ﻷﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺘﻪ ﻟﻠﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺴﻄﺤﺔ‬

‫ﺇﻟﻰﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﺣﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮﻱ‪ .‬ﻣﻨﺬ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻗﻤﺖ ﺑﺘﺮﺟﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻇﺮﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺃﻭﺗﺮﻭﻭﺭﺙ ﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎﺗﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﻤﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺸﺎﺑﻬﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
 ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻂﻭﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻡ ﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪ .‬ﺗﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺑﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ‪.‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﺿﻌﺎﻑ ﺍﻹﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ‪3‬‬
‫ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎﺕﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺑﺎﺗﺮﻭﻭﺭﺙ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﻤﻲ ﺗﻀﻤﻨﺖ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻂ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺴﻂ ]‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪ [1 21‬ﻭ ]‪ [1 3 3 1‬ﻟﻠﺘﻜﻮﻳﻨﺎﺕ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ ﻭﺛﻼﺛﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻟﻲ‪.‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﻻﺣﻈﺖ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔﻟﻤﺼﻄﻠﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻂ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻗﻤﺖ ﺑﺈﻧﺸﺎء‬
‫ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭﺍﺕﻣﻌﺪﻟﺔ ﺑﺒﺴﺎﻃﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺣﺬﻑ ﻛﻞ ﺷﻲء ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻄﻠﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻂ ﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻧﻘﻞ ﺑﺎﺗﺮﻭﻭﺭﺙ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺑﺎﺗﺮﻭﻭﺭﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻝ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫‪/ 3.14159*414.‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫=‬
‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ)‪/ 180 * 1.25 * 1.414‬ﺇﻳﺮﻭﺩ‬ ‫‪* *2‬‬
‫‪(3-1‬‬ ‫ﺏ‬
‫*‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫* ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ]‪* − [1‬ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ]‪[2‬‬ ‫* ﻣﺪﺧﻞ‪-‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺑﺎﺗﺮﻭﻭﺭﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻝ ﺛﻼﺛﻲ ﺍﻷﻗﻄﺎﺏ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪/ 3.14159‬ﺇﻳﺮﻭﺩ‬

‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ‪/ 180 * 1.738‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‬ ‫‪* *2‬‬

‫*‬
‫‪(3-2‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫*‬
‫*‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫* ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪[3‬‬ ‫* ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪[2‬‬ ‫‪*2‬ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪[1‬‬ ‫ﻧﺈﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬ ‫*‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬

‫ﺗﻈﻬﺮﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ‪ Butterworth‬ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻟﺔ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﻭﺛﻼﺛﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻗﻄﺎﺏﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﺿﺒﻂ ﻓﺘﺮﺗﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ‪ 10‬ﺑﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ .3.8‬ﻳﻌﻄﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺻﺪﺍﺭﺛﻼﺛﻲ ﺍﻷﻗﻄﺎﺏ ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 6‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻧﻴﻜﻮﻳﺴﺖ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔﺑﺎﻹﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﻟﻺﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺛﻼﺛﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻗﻄﺎﺏﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻧﻴﻜﻮﻳﺴﺖ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﻗﺪﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻠﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻬﻤﺎً‪.‬‬
 ‫‪rary for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons Licenseley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online LibDownloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wi‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫–‪5‬‬

‫‪10 -‬‬

‫‪15 -‬‬

‫‪20 -‬‬

‫‪IDS SMOOTHING FILTERS ON STERO‬‬

‫‪25 -‬‬

‫‪30 -‬‬

‫‪35 -‬‬

‫‪40 -‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻠﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻝ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻲ ﻭﺛﻼﺛﻲ ﺍﻷﻗﻄﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪3.8‬‬

‫‪10‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ‪Butterworth‬ﺃﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 3.9‬ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ‪ Butterworth‬ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻟﺔ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺛﻼﺛﻴﺔﺍﻷﻗﻄﺎﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﺿﺒﻂ ﻓﺘﺮﺗﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ‪ 10‬ﺑﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻟﺜﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ‬
‫ﻳﺘﻌﻴﻦﺩﻓﻌﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻲ ﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺮﻓﺾ ﻫﻮ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺭﻳﻦﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬
‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺸﻮﻳﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ ﻋﺒﺮ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻭﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻌﺪﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺮﺷﻴﺢ ﺟﻴﺪ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﻧﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﻧﻰ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺗﺸﻮﻩﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻞ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﻔﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ‬
‫ﻧﻴﻜﻮﻳﺴﺖﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﻣﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻨﺼﺮﻳﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻯ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻻ ﺗﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺑﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺒﺪﻭ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺤﻖ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡﺑﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺃﺳﻤﻴﻪ ‪ .SuperSmoother‬ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻤﺮﺷﺢ‬
‫‪ SuperSmoother‬ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫(‪Amplitude )dB‬‬

‫‪/ 3.14159*1.414‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‬

‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ)‪/ 180 * 1.414‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‬ ‫‪* *2‬‬

‫‪(3-3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫*‬
‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪[2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪* 3 + [1‬‬ ‫* )ﻧﺈﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪+‬ﻧﺈﺩﺧﺎﻝ]‪* 2 + 2 / ([1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬
 ‫‪rary for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons Licenseley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online LibDownloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wi‬‬
‫‪3‬‬

‫‪2.5‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪1.5‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪0.5‬‬

‫‪0‬‬
‫‪ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS CYCLE‬‬

‫‪0.5-‬‬

‫‪1-‬‬

‫‪1.5-‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ‪ Butterworth‬ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻟﺔ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﻭﺛﻼﺛﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻗﻄﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪3.9‬‬

‫ﻫﻨﺎﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ=‪10‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 3.10‬ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ‪SuperSmoother‬‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚﺗﻢ ﺿﺒﻂ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪.10‬‬

‫ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕﻣﺮﺷﺢ ‪uperSmoother‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﻳﺘﻢﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ‪ SuperSmoother‬ﻓﻲ ﺃﻱ ﻭﻗﺖ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻱ ﻧﻮﻉ‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻣﻔﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ‬
‫‪ SuperSmoother‬ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺃﻗﻞ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻜﺎﻓﺉﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﻣﺘﺤﺮﻙﺑﺴﻴﻂ ﻣﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻤﺴﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻗﻄﻊ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 10‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻭﻟﻪ‬
‫ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎﻥﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ‪ .‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ‪ SuperSmoother‬ﺑﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻗﻄﻊ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 10‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ‬
‫(‪Lag )bars‬‬

‫ﺗﺄﺧﺮﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﺑﻨﺼﻒ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ‪ Butterworth‬ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻝ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺿﺢ‬

‫ﻓﻲﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ .3.9‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻤﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ‪ SuperSmoother‬ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ‬
‫ﻳﺒﻠﻎﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 1.5‬ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﻭﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ .‬ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺭﻕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﻭﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ‪ SuperSmoother‬ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺤﺘﻮﻱﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺿﻮﺿﺎء‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺐ ﻭﺭﺍء ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ‪ ،‬ﺗﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء‪ .‬ﺳﺄﺷﺮﺡ‬
 ‫‪rary for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons Licenseley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online LibDownloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wi‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫–‪5‬‬

‫‪10 -‬‬

‫‪15 -‬‬

‫‪20 -‬‬

‫‪IDS SMOOTHING FILTERS ON STERO‬‬

‫‪25 -‬‬

‫‪30 -‬‬

‫‪35 -‬‬

‫‪40 -‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ‪ SuperSmoother‬ﺃﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪3.10‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪10‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙﻧﻮﻉ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺪﺙ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﻔﻘﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺛﺎﻥ ٍﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء ﻭﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺪﺙ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﺃﺧﺬ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺿﻮﺿﺎء ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺝ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻄﻠﺢ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻗﺼﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻦﺍﻟﺴﻬﻞ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻔﻜﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ‬
‫ﻟﻴﺲﻛﺬﻟﻚ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ ﻛﻤﻤﺜﻞ ﻟﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻂ ﻳﺸﻜﻞ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻻ‬
‫ﻳﻬﻢﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﻨﺖ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻭﺍﻻﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺑﺪﻻ ًﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺄﻧﺖ ﻻ‬
‫ﺗﺰﺍﻝﺗﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ‪ .‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻨﺎﻙ‬
‫ﺑﻌﺾﺟﻮﺍﻧﺐ ‪ SP‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺠﺐ ﻣﺮﺍﻋﺎﺗﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻤﻜﻨﺔ‬
‫)ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺳﻤﺎء ﻣﺴﺘﻌﺎﺭﺓ( ﻫﻲ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺷﺮﻳﻄﻴﻦ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺘﺮﺩﺩ‬
‫(‪Amplitude )dB‬‬

‫ﻧﻴﻜﻮﻳﺴﺖ‪ 0.5،‬ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻄﻴﻦﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﺃﺧﺬ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﻢ ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺔ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺃﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻊﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻗﻤﻢ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‪-‬‬
‫ﻻﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺿﻤﺎﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﺧﻞ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﺃﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﺮﺩﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﺿﻮﺿﺎء ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺝ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء ﻣﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﺭﺑﻊ‬
‫ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕﻟﻜﻞ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻷﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﺃﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻫﻲ‬
‫ﻧﺴﺨﺔﻃﺒﻖ ﺍﻷﺻﻞ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻟﻤﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺴﺨﺔ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟـ‬
 ‫ﻣﻜﻮﻥﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺛﻤﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﺃﺧﺬ‬
‫ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺿﻮﺿﺎء ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺗﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ ﻭﺃﻃﻮﻝ‪ .‬ﻳﺒﻠﻎ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ ‪ 6‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻑ‪ .‬ﺗﺠﺮﺑﺘﻲ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻧﺎﺩﺭﺍ ً‬
‫ﻣﺎﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻧﺨﻠﻖﺷﺮﻃﻴﻦ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻝ ﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺟﺎﺕ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﻦﺍﻟﺼﻌﺐ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻓﻴﻦ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻧﻴﺴﺘﻜﻮﻳﺴﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﺬﺍﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺛﻤﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻟﻪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺿﻮﺿﺎء ﻛﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻗﻞﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ‪ 12‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻧﻴﺴﺘﻜﻮﻳﺴﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﺬﻟﻚﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻭﻧﺠﺮ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺿﻮﺿﺎء ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻳﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫‪.2‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺑﺎﻧﺘﻘﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﻛﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺿﻮﺿﺎء ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺩﻭﻥﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ ﺿﻮﺿﺎء ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺝ ﺗﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﺑﻤﻌﺪﻝ ‪6‬‬
‫ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞﻟﻜﻞ ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻑ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻗﻄﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩ ﻭﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ‪ SuperSmoother‬ﻫﻮ ‪ 12‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻑ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ‬
‫‪ Super Smoother‬ﻫﻮ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻀﺎء ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ﺿﻮﺿﺎء ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺝ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺓﺍﻹﺧﺮﺍﺝ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﺣﺚﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍء ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻒ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺎً ﻣﻊ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ‪ SuperSmoother‬ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﻊ‪ 10‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻧﺤﻮ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﻣﻦ ﺿﻮﺿﺎء ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺝ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ‪ SuperSmoother‬ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻛﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺃﻭ ﻛﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫ﻋﻴﻨﺔﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺁﺧﺮ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺭﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻋﻀﺎء‬
‫‪.1‬ﺇﻥ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻇﺮﺓ ﺣﻮﻝ‬
‫ﻧﻘﻄﺔﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺗﺄﺧﺮﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ )‪.2 / (1‬‬
‫‪.‬ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﺣﻮﻝ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺯﻭﺟﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺩﺍﺉﻤﺎً‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﻔﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻧﻴﺴﺘﻜﻮﻳﺴﺖ‪.‬‬
‫‪.‬ﻳﻀﻤﻦ ‪ SMA‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻓﺮﺩﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮﻩ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮﺓ ﻣﻘﻄﻮﻋﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺼﻒ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺻﻔﺮ‬
‫ﻣﺰﺩﻭﺝﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻧﻴﺴﺘﻜﻮﻳﺴﺖ‪.‬‬
‫‪.‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ ‪ SMAs‬ﻫﻲ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ ﻷﻗﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﻟﺨﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻏﻴﺮﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮﺭﺓ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ ﻷﻗﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﻟﺨﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻀﻤﻦﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻬﻢ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺼﻒ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﺻﻔﺮﺍً ﻣﺰﺩﻭﺟﺎً ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻬﻢ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻧﻴﺴﺘﻜﻮﻳﺴﺖ‪.‬‬
 SuperSmoother ‫ﺭﺑﻤﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﻟﻤﻌﻈﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﻫﻮ‬.5
.‫ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻲﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ‬
‫ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻣﻞ ﻹﺯﺍﻟﺔ‬SuperSmoother ‫ﻳﻮﺻﻰ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ‬.6
.‫ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎءﺍﻟﻤﺰﻋﺠﺔ‬

Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺕ‬

:‫ﻧﻴﻮﺟﻴﺮﺳﻲ‬،‫ﻓﻴﺮ‬ ، 1997 ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ )ﺩﺍﺭ ﻧﺸﺮ‬،‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺭﻗﻤﻴﺔ‬،‫ ﻫﺎﻣﻴﻨﺞ‬.‫ ﻭ‬.‫ﺭ‬.

.49 ،(Upper Saddle
‫ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ‬.‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺝ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻃﺉﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ ﻧﻘﺺ ﺃﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‬.2

SMOOTHING FILTERS ON STEROIDS

‫ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎً ﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻋﺠﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﻥ ﺗﺒﺪﻭ ﻭﻛﺄﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﺪﻭﺭ ﻟﻠﺨﻠﻒ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻓﻼﻡ ﺭﻋﺎﺓ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‬
.ً‫ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺮﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮﺓ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺇﻃﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻴﻠﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﻲء ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎ‬

7
 ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪.‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‪.‬‬
‫‪ John Wiley & Sons, Inc.‬ﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2013‬ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ‪© 2013 John F. Ehlers.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻣﺰُﻳﻠﻮﺍﻟﺘﺪﻭﻳﺮ‬
‫"ﻟﻘﺪ ﺗﻢ ﺇﻟﻐﺎء ﺍﻟﻌﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺳﻴﻘﻴﺔ" ﻗﺎﻝ ﺗﻮﻡ ﺑﺼﺮﺍﺣﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦﺗﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻲ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﻹﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﻛﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬

‫ﻣﺠﺎﻻًﻹﺿﺎﻓﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺗﺤﺘﻔﻆ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺇﻧﺸﺎءﺍﺕﺩﻳﺴﻴﻜﻞ‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺴﻴﻂ ﻟﻠﻐﺎﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﺘﻢ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔﺍﻹﻟﻐﺎء‪ .‬ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 4.1‬ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆﺃﻥ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺧﺮﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻫﻲ‬
‫ﻭﻫﻮﻧﻔﺲ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ )ﺃﻱ ‪ 0‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ(‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻢ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺧﺮﺝ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻘﻲ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺘﻢﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻧﻘﻞ ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﻓﻚ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻭﺍﻹﺧﺮﺍﺝ‬
‫ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬

‫)‪-1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪− 1)* (2/‬ﺯ‪(1-‬‬

‫ﺡ)ﺯ( = ‪−1‬‬
‫*ﺯ‪1-‬‬ ‫‪-1)-1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ(‬
‫ﺑﻮﺿﻊﺍﻟﺠﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻷﻳﻤﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺎﺳﻢ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻙ‪ ،‬ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ‬

‫)ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪+1)* (2/‬ﺯ‪(1-‬‬
‫ﺡ)ﺯ( =‬
‫*ﺯ‪1-‬‬ ‫‪− 1)-1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ(‬

‫ﺗﻈﻬﺮﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺃﻥ ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻫﻮ ﺃﺣﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ‬

‫ﻷﻥﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻡ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺜﻴﺮ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺤﺺ‪،‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺰﻳﻞ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﻋﻦ ﻛﺜﺐ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻷﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬
 rary for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons Licenseley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online LibDownloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wi
0

5–

10 -

15 -

20 -
ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS CYCLE

25 -

30 -

35 -
0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

ً‫ ﺑﺎﺭﺍ‬30 ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ 4.1‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬

‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓﺍﻹﻳﻘﺎﻑ‬
0

‫ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﻛﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻠﻐﺔ‬.‫ﻻﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻓﺮﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻄﻠﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻂ ﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻠﺔﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺰُﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬
.1-4 ‫ﻓﻲﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ‬

‫ ﻟـ‬EasyLanguage ‫ ﺭﻣﺰ‬.1-4 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﺮﻣﻮﺯ‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏﻣﺰُﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬

‫ﻣﺰُﻳﻞﺍﻟﺘﺪﻭﻳﺮ‬
Amplitude )dB(

‫ ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‬.‫ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‬2013

:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ‬
‫(؛‬60)‫ﻗﻄﻊ‬

:‫ﺁﺭﺱ‬
،(0)1‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‬
،(0)‫ﺡ‬
‫(؛‬0)‫ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .1-4‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬
‫‪/‬ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ "ﺍﻟﻘﻄﻊ"‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺟﻴﺐ)‪ / 360‬ﻗﻄﻊ( ‪/ (1 -‬‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪) 1‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪ / 360‬ﺍﻟﻘﻄﻊ( ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‬
‫‪ / 360‬ﺍﻟﻘﻄﻊ(؛‬
‫;[‪( 1- alpha1(*Decycle]1‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ‪ +‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪= )alpha1 / 2(*)[1‬‬
‫‪ecycle‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ‪)1‬ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ(؛‬

‫‪ -‬ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖﺩﻳﺴﺎﻳﻜﻠﻴﺮ‬
‫(‪Amplitude )dB‬‬

‫ﻳﻘﻮﻡﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺑﺈﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﺮ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻹﻟﻐﺎء‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﺮﻙ‬
‫ﻳﻔُﺘﺮﺽﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺧﺮﺝ ‪ ecycler‬ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺃﺣﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﻓﻚ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻗﻄﻊ ‪ 30‬ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺳﺎً ﻛﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻈﻬﺮﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ ،4.2‬ﻭﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ .4.3‬ﺗﺆﻛﺪ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻗﺺ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ‪ 6‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻑ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‬

‫‪DECYCLERS‬‬
‫ﺃﺣﺎﺩﻱﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ‪ 0.1‬ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻟﻜﻞ‬
‫ﺩﻭﺭﺓﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 10‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻑ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ‪0.2‬‬
‫ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱﻟﻜﻞ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 16‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ‪.‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫–‪5‬‬

‫‪10 -‬‬

‫‪15 -‬‬

‫‪20 -‬‬

‫‪25 -‬‬

‫‪30 -‬‬

‫‪35 -‬‬

‫‪40 -‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻟﻪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻗﻄﻊ ‪ 30‬ﺑﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪4.2‬‬

 ‫‪rary for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons Licenseley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online LibDownloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wi‬‬
‫‪5‬‬

‫‪4.5‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪3.5‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪2.5‬‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫‪ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS CYCLE‬‬

‫‪1.5‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪0.5‬‬

‫‪0‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﻋﻤﺮﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻭﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻟﻪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻗﻄﻊ ‪ 30‬ﺑﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪4.3‬‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺔﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺣﻘﺎً ﻟﻤﺰﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻫﻲ ﺗﺄﺧﺮﻩ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎﺉﻲ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺑﺄﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻤﺴﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺘﺮﺩﺩ ‪ 0.05‬ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ )‬
‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓﺩﻭﺭﺓ ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً(‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ‬
‫ﻓﻲﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ 1.5‬ﺑﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﺳﺮﻉ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺬﺑﺬﺑﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻤﺮ ﻋﺒﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ ﺗﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺬﺑﺬﺑﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ‪ .‬ﺗﺠﻌﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺰﺓﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﻓﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ "ﺧﻂ ﺍﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﻟﺤﻈﻲ" ﻣﺜﺎﻟﻴﺎً ﻳﺼﻮﺭ ﺑﺪﻗﺔ ﺍﺗﺠﺎﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﻧﺎﻋﻤﺔ ﻣﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﻟﻜﻞ‬
‫ﻣﺬﺑﺬﺏ‪.‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﻧﺘﺎﺉﺞ ﻣﺰﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻤﺮﺷﺢ‬
‫ﻟﻜﻞﻣﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﺁﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺰﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻘﺔ ﺩﺍﺉﻤﺎً ﺃﻗﻞ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮﺍً‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﻣﺰﻳﻞﺍﻟﺤﻠﻘﺔ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺠﺮﺩ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺃﺣﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﺪﻳﻪ ﻗﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﺮﺷﻴﺢ‬
‫(‪Lag )bars‬‬

‫ﺃﺩﻧﻰ‪.‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺰﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻘﺔ ﻛﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﻹﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺿﻮﺿﺎء‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺝ‪.‬ﺑﺪﻻ ًﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺺ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺧﻂ ﺍﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﻟﺤﻈﻲ ﺣﻴﺚ‬
‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩﺓ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً‪ .‬ﺗﻤﻜﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﻣﺰﻳﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻘﺔﻣﻦ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺿﻮﺿﺎء ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺝ ﻷﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﻌﻴﺪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻧﻴﻜﻮﻳﺴﺖ ﺑﻌﺪﺓ‬
‫ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻓﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻦﺍﻟﻤﺆﻛﺪ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻦ ﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﻣﺰُﻳﻞ ﻟﻠﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺧﺮﺝ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻲﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ‪ ،‬ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺰُﻳﻞ ﻟﻠﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻌﺾ‬
 ‫ﺧﺼﺎﺉﺺﻣﺜﻴﺮﺓ ﻟﻼﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻷﻥ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺣﻴﻦﺃﻥ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺮﺓ ﺗﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺿﺉﻴﻞ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥﺗﻔﺴﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﻛﺒﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻋﺒﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ‪.‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﻮﺻﻰ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺨﻔﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﺣﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻛﺨﻄﻮﻁﺍﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﻟﺤﻈﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﻣﺬﺑﺬﺏﻣﺰﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﻣﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﻣﺰُﻳﻞ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺧﺮﺝ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻪ‬
‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓﻗﻄﻊ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺮﺝ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻟﻪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻗﻄﻊ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ‪ .‬ﺑﻬﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ‪،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮﻳﻦ ﺻﻔﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻬﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﺻﻔﺮﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺟﺪﺍً ﺟﺪﺍً‬
‫ﺗﺘﻢﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ )ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺼﻄﻠﺢ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ(‪ .‬ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻓﺮﻕ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺧﺮﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﻴﻦﻓﻲ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﻗﻄﻌﻬﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻻ ﺗﺰﺍﻝ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓﺍﻷﻗﺼﺮ ﺗﺰُﺍﻝ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ‬
‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﻛﻤﺬﺑﺬﺏ‪ .‬ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻛﻮﺩ ‪EasyLanguage‬‬
‫ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏﻣﺬﺑﺬﺏ ‪ decycler‬ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪.2-4‬‬

‫‪DECYCLERS‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﺮﻣﻮﺯ ‪ .2-4‬ﺭﻣﺰ ‪ EasyLanguage‬ﻟـ‬
‫ﻣﺬﺑﺬﺏﻣﺰﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬

‫ﻣﺬﺑﺬﺏﻣﺰﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫‪2013‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ‪:‬‬

‫‪HPPeriod1)30(،‬‬
‫؛(‪HPPeriod2)60‬‬

‫ﺁﺭﺱ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪،(0)2‬‬
‫‪HP1)0(،‬‬
‫‪HP2)0(،‬‬
‫ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ)‪(0‬؛‬

‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪/ 360*707.‬‬ ‫)ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‪(HPPeriod1 / 360*707.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪1‬‬

‫؛(‪ ).360 * 707 / HPPeriod1‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ ‪HPPeriod1( - 1( /‬‬
‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .2-4‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪/ 360*707.‬‬ ‫)ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‪(HPPeriod2 / 360*707.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪2‬‬

‫؛(‪ ).360 * 707 / HPPeriod2‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ ‪HPPeriod2( - 1( /‬‬

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‫*(ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪ - 1)*2*HP1]1[ - )1 - 1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪( (1‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ‪*2 -‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪ [1‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪ - 1(*)[2‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪(*)2 / 1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪- 2 / 1‬‬
‫‪P1 )1‬‬
‫)‪ - 1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪HP1]2[*(1‬؛‬
‫*(‪( 2*)1 - alpha2(*HP2]1[ - )1 - alpha2‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ‪*2 -‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪ + [1‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪/ 2(*)1 - alpha2 / 2(*)[2‬‬
‫‪HP2 )1 - alpha2‬‬
‫)‪ - 1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪HP2]2[*(2‬؛‬
‫ﺇﻟﻐﺎءﺩﻭﺭﺓ ‪HP2 - HP1‬؛‬

‫؛(ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ)‪lot1‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺮ‪(0)2‬؛‬

‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻔﻴﺪﺍً ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺑﻴﻦ‬

‫ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻬﺎﺑﻄﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻋﺒﻮﺭ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻻ ًﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻞﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻣﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻓﻲﻣﻴﻞ ﻣﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻲ‪ .‬ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺍﻟﻌﺜﻮﺭ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﺴﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 4.4‬ﻣﺜﺎﻻﻥ ﻟﻤﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﻣﺰﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﻣﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﻣﺰﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‪،‬‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﻫﻨﺎ ‪ 30‬ﺑﺎﺭﺍً‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﻣﺰﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺿﺒﻂ‬
‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓﻗﻄﻊ ﺃﻭﻧﺠﺮ ﻟﺘﻜﻮﻥ ‪ 60‬ﺑﺎﺭﺍً‪.‬‬

‫ﺭﻗﻢ‪4.4‬ﻳﻈُﻬﺮ ﻛﻼ ﺍﻟﻤﺰُﻳﻠﻴﻦ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻈﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﻧﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ‬

 ‫‪ -‬ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺭﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻋﻀﺎء‬
‫‪.1‬ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺧﺮﺝ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ‬

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‫ﻣﻦﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻹﻟﻐﺎء‪.‬‬

‫ﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺑﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺟﺪﺍً‪.‬‬

‫ﻳﺘﻢﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﻣﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﻣﺰﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺧﺮﺝ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻪ‬
‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓﻗﻄﻊ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺮﺝ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻟﻪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻗﻄﻊ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ‪.‬‬

‫‪.5‬ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻣﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻻﺕ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻬﺒﻮﻃﻴﺔﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﺎﻃﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ‪.‬‬

‫‪DECYCLERS‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
 ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪.‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‪.‬‬
‫‪ John Wiley & Sons, Inc.‬ﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2013‬ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ‪© 2013 John F. Ehlers.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ‪and-Pass‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻝﺗﻮﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﻭﺍﺳﻊ‪" :‬ﻟﻘﺪ ﺗﻢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﺼﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻐﺔ"‪.‬‬

‫ﺭﺑﻤﺎﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻗﻲ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍً ﻭﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎً ﻓﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞﺍﻟﻔﻨﻲ‪ .‬ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻗﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻟﻐﺎء ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺠﻌﻠﻪ ﻣﺆﻫﻼ ًﻛﻤﺰﻳﻞ ﻟﻼﺗﺠﺎﻩ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻳﻌﻤﻞﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻟﻐﺎء ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺠﻌﻠﻪ ﻣﺆﻫﻼ ًﻛﻤﺤﻠﻞ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪.‬ﻻ ﻳﻤﺮﺭ ﺳﻮﻯ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺮﺝ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻬﺘﻢ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪.‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺷﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻨﺘﺠﻪ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻗﻲ ﻣﺘﻔﻮﻕ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺮﻓﺾ‬
‫ﻓﻲﻧﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺑﻪ‪ .‬ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫ﺭﻓﺾﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻏﻮﺏ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﺉﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺇﻳﻘﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺰﺩﻭﺝ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‪ .‬ﻓﻬﻮ ﻳﺮﻓﺾ‬
‫ﻧﻄﺎﻗﺎًﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻛﺸﻖ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﺨﺮﺝ ﻭﻳﻤﺮﺭ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‬
‫ﺩﻭﻥﺇﺿﻌﺎﻑ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً‪ .‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻴﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﻘﺬﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻖ ﺿﻴﻖ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً ﻭﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ ﻃﻴﻒ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﺍﺳﻊ‬
‫ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎًﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺇﻳﻘﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻟﺪﻳﻪ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻴﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻭ‬

‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺞ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺭﺩﻳﺉﺔ ﺣﻘﺎً ﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻟﻢﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﻭﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﻤﻴﺔ )‪ (DSP‬ﺗﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ‪ 0‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 0.5‬ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ‬
‫ﺷﺮﻳﻂﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻷﺩﻧﻰ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻄﺎﻕﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ‪ alf‬ﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ‪ 0‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 0.5‬ﺑﺎﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫ﻟﻜﻞﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﺍﻷﺳﻲ )‪ (EMA‬ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻧﺼﻒﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻱ ﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻧﻔﻌﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﻧﻘﻞ‬
 ‫ﻳﺘﻢﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ .1-5‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻢ‬
‫ﻭﺻﻒﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻭﻝ ‪.1.1‬‬

‫‪11‬‬
‫)‪(5-1‬‬ ‫ﻏﺎﻣﺎ‪1 -2‬‬ ‫ﺳﻲ= ‪−‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻏﺎﻣﺎ‬

‫=ﻛﻮﺱ‪/*360‬ﺇﻳﺮﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻳﻦ‬
‫=ﻭﻣﻊ ﻛﺠﺰء ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ =ﻧﻈﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ‪/360‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‬

‫‪−1)*0.5‬ﺳﻲ( *)‪-1‬ﺯ‪(2-‬‬
‫ﺡ)ﺯ( =‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫‪+1)*λ-1‬ﺳﻲ( *ﺯ‪+1-‬ﺳﻲ*ﺯ‪2-‬‬

‫ﻧﻈﺮﺍًﻷﻥ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻛﺜﻴﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻫﻲ ﺍﺛﻨﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﺬﺍ‬

‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻟﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺍﻷﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ "]‪ ،"[N‬ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕﺛﻨﺎﺉﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ‬

‫ﻧﺈﺩﺧﺎﻝ]‪([2‬‬ ‫* )ﻧﺈﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬ ‫‪1) *0.5‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬

‫‪(5-2‬‬
‫* ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪[2‬‬ ‫( * ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪[1‬‬ ‫)‪1‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 5.1‬ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐﻣﺘﻤﺮﻛﺰ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ‪ 10‬ﺑﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻪ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻳﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 30‬ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺎﺉﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ )‪ 3−‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ(‪ .‬ﻻﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢﻟﻪ ﺃﺻﻔﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺳﻮﺍء ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮﻱ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ‬
‫ﻧﻴﻜﻮﻳﺴﺖ‪.‬ﻳﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً ﻓﻲ ﻧﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﻓﺾ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻴﺔﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻢ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﻭﻓﻘﺎً ﻟـ‬
‫‪.‬ﻋﺮﺽﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪alf-‬‬
‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪،5.2‬‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﺟﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺗﺮﺩﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺘﺮﺩﺩﺓ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻣﺴﺤﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭﻣﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪60‬‬
‫ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪.‬ﺗﺘﺄﺭﺟﺢ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ‪ 5‬ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ‬
‫‪.60‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺿﺒﻂ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ ،5.2‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺿﺢ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔﻣﻦ ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺿﻌﺎﻓﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﻟﻠﻘﺮﺍء ﺑﺴﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﻣﺼﺪﺭ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﺟﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺗﺮﺩﺩﻳﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ‬
‫ﺑﻬﻢﻓﻲ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪ .Excel‬ﺍﺟﻌﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﻣﻦ ‪ 1‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪.1000‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺗﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﺭ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫‪60‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻣﻦ ‪ 100‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 1000‬ﻫﻲ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ‪0.1‬‬
‫‪*0.000075‬ﻣﻀﺎﺩ‪.‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺔ ‪ B1‬ﺍﻛﺘﺐ "= ‪* 5 0‬‬
 ‫‪rary for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons Licenseley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online LibDownloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wi‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫–‪5‬‬

‫‪10 -‬‬

‫‪15 -‬‬

‫‪20 -‬‬

‫‪25 -‬‬

‫‪30 -‬‬

‫‪35 -‬‬

‫‪BAND-PASS FILTERS‬‬
‫‪40 -‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺒﻮﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪5.1‬‬

‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻭﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺗﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ 30‬ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺎﺉﺔ‬

‫‪9‬‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‪ ”(( * 0.000075 − 0.1) * 6.28318‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﻧﺴﺦ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺔ ‪ B1‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺨﻼﻳﺎ ‪ B2‬ﺣﺘﻰ‬
‫‪ .B1000‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ‪ B‬ﻫﻮ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺘﺎﺡ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻚ ﺟﻌﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺗﺒﺪﻭ‬
‫ﺃﻛﺜﺮﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﻗﻠﻴﻼ ًﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺟﻌﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ‪ C‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ‪ ،B‬ﻭﺟﻌﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ‪ D‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻷﺩﻧﻰ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ‬
‫ﻓﻲﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ‪ ،B‬ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻮﺩ ‪ E‬ﺑﺄﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ ﻭ‬
‫(‪Amplitude )dB‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪5.2‬ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺒﻮﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‬

‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬
 ‫ﺍﺣﺘﻔﻆﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ‪ .B‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺼﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺳﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺍﺭﻳﺦ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻗﻢ ﺑﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﻠﻒ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ﺧﻤﺲ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺑﺘﻨﺴﻴﻖ ‪ CSV‬ﻻﻟﺘﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺭﻳﺦ‪ .‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﻧﺴﺦ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺪﺓ ‪ B‬ﻭ‪ C‬ﻭ‪ D‬ﻭ‪ E‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﺛﻢ‬
‫ﻗﻢﺑﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺼﻖ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﻮﺣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻭﺇﻏﻼﻕﺍﻷﻋﻤﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺪﺓ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ‪w،‬‬
‫ﻗﻴﻢﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺰﻋﺠﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﺧﻴﺮﺍً‪ ،‬ﺍﺣﻔﻆ ﻣﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﺘﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﺮﺍﺩﻩ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺼﺔﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻨﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻦﺍﻟﺨﺼﺎﺉﺺ ﺍﻟﻤﺬﻫﻠﺔ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻢ ﺿﺒﻂ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﺟﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺗﻬﺎ ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪،‬ﻓﻠﻦ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﻱ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻃﻼﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﺧﺮﺍﺝ‪ .‬ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫‪5.3‬ﺇﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺫﻱ ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً ﺑﻌﺮﺽ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﻳﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 30‬ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺎﺉﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔﺑﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺫﺍﺕ ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻢ ﺿﺒﻂ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 17‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‬
‫ﻓﻲﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً ﺃﻃﻮﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺒﻮﻁ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪.‬ﻭﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻹﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﻣﺘﺄﺧﺮﺓ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ‪ 65‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪ .5.4‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻢ ﺿﺒﻂ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻐﺔ‪ 23‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً ﻟﻜﻞ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺒﻮﻁﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ .‬ﻭﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻹﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﻣﺘﺄﺧﺮﺓ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ‪ 65‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪65‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ .5.5‬ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺠﻨﺐ ﺗﺤﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﺭ ﻋﺒﺮ‬
‫ﻋﺮﺽﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺔ ﺗﺤﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎﻳﺘﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻗﻄﺎﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺃﺑﺴﻂﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﺸﻮﻩ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﺭ‪.‬‬

‫ﺭﻗﻢ‪5.3‬ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺒﻮﻁ ﺑﺪﻗﺔ ﻻ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻱ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ‬

 ‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻧﺘﺎﺉﺞﺗﺄﺧﺮ ‪ 5‬ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻳﺔ ‪BeingTuned‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪5.4‬‬
‫‪15‬ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺎﺉﺔ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺟﺪﺍً‬

‫‪BAND-PASS FILTERS‬‬
‫‪51‬‬

‫ﻧﺘﺎﺉﺞﺍﻟﺮﺻﺎﺹ ﺑﺨﻤﺲ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪5.5‬‬

‫‪15‬ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺎﺉﺔ ﻗﺼﻴﺮﺓ ﺟﺪﺍً‬

‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ‪Q‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﻋﺎﻣﻞﺍﻟﺠﻮﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ‪ ،Q‬ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻫﻮ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻠﻪ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺨﺼﺎﺉﺺ‪.‬ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺮﺍﺑﻄﺔ ﻟـ ‪ .Q‬ﺭﺑﻤﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺃﺑﺴﻄﻬﺎﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺉﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻛﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻩ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻋﺮﺽﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻣﺜﺎﻟﻨﺎ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‬
‫ﻋﺮﺽﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ 30‬ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺎﺉﺔ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ‪ .Q 3.33‬ﻭﺑﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪،‬‬
‫‪.3.33 6 / 20 (17 23) / 20‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻊﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ‪ Q‬ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻛﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻓﻲﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﺉﺮ ﺍﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻧﺎﻧﺔ ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬

‫‪(5-3‬‬ ‫‪)2‬ﻧﻴﺮﺟﻲ ﻣﺨﺰﻧﺔ‪) /‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺪﺩﺓ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬

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‫ﻋﻠﻰﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻟﻪ ‪ Q = 3.33‬ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﺪﻳﻪ ﻃﺎﻗﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺤﺮﻭﻗﺔﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺪﺩﺓ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺳﻴﺘﻢﺇﺧﻤﺎﺩ ﺭﻧﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺑﺴﺮﻋﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺳﻴﺘﻜﻴﻒ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺑﺴﺮﻋﺔ ﻣﻊ‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺧﻠﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪،‬‬
‫ﻳﺼﺪﺭﻣﺮﺷﺢ ‪ Q‬ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﺻﻮﺗﺎً ﻃﻮﻳﻼً ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ًﻟﻤﺪﺧﻞ ﻧﺒﻀﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻟﺠﺮﺱ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻣﺜﻞﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﻮﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻮﺩﺓ ﺑﺎﻧﺘﻘﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺭﻧﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻳﺤﺠﺐ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪،‬‬
‫ﻳﺠﺐﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ‪ Q‬ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺎً ﻗﺪﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻥﻣﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺷﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻮﺿﺢﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 5.6‬ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﻴﺉﺔ ﺛﻼﺙ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ‬
‫ﺟﻴﺒﻴﺔﺑﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ‪ 20‬ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺳﺎً‪ .‬ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺧﺮﺍﺝﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺒﻮﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ‪ 20‬ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺳﺎً ﻭﻟﻪ ‪.Q 3.33‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯﺗﺄﺭﺟﺢ ﺍﻹﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪ .‬ﻋﻼﻭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺗﺄﺭﺟﺢ ﺍﻹﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺩﻭﻥﻧﺼﻒ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﻣﻊﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ‪ Q‬ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﻄﻴﺉﺎً ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ً‬ ‫‪52‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﺳﻴﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺮﻧﻴﻦ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪.5.7‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪5.6‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺑﺮﺓ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪Q 3.33‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪5.7‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺑﺮﺓ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪Q 10‬‬

‫‪BAND-PASS FILTERS‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻗﻲ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻣﺘﻼﻛﻬﺎﻟـ ‪ Q‬ﺃﻗﻮﻯ )ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺗﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺃﻭﺳﻊ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺉﻮﻳﺔ(‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻳﻮﺿﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪ 5.8‬ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻗﻲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑـ ‪ .Q 2‬ﻳﺴﺘﺠﻴﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‬
‫ﺑﺴﺮﻋﺔﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻋﺔ ﻳﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪.‬‬
‫‪53‬‬
‫ﺇﻥﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻧﻄﺎﻗﻲ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ 30‬ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺎﺉﺔ‬
‫ﻳﻌﺪﺣﻼ ًﻭﺳﻄﺎً ﺟﻴﺪﺍً ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺑﺮﺓ ﻟﻤﻌﻈﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪5.8‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺑﺮﺓ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪Q 2‬‬

 ‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ )ﺃ(‬
‫ﺇﻥﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺻﻮﻑ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺘﻴﻦ ‪ 1-5‬ﻭ‪ 2-5‬ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺤﺴﺐ‬
‫ﺑﺪﻗﺔﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺳﻌﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕﺳﻮﻑ ﺗﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢﺍﻟﺮﺧﻴﺼﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ‪ 100‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻟﻠﺴﻬﻢ‪ .‬ﻭﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻸﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺧﻴﺼﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻥﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﺃﺻﻐﺮﻛﺜﻴﺮﺍً‪ .‬ﺍﻋﺘﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﻣﺜﻞ ‪ 0‬ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫‪100‬ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﺑﻐﺾ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ‪.‬ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﻣﻦ ‪ AGC‬ﻫﻮ ﺗﻮﻓﻴﺮ ﻣﻈﻬﺮ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻣﺘﺴﻖ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﻧﻄﺎﻕﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍﻗﺴﻤﺖ ‪ AGC‬ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﺭﺟﺢ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ‬

‫ﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﺣﺪ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ‪ 1‬ﺃﻭ ﺣﺪ ﺃﺩﻧﻰ ‪ .1−‬ﻟﻢ ﺃﺭ‬
‫ﻗﻂﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ‪ AGC‬ﻣﻄﺒﻘﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺃﻣﺮ ﻣﺨﺰ ٍﻷﻧﻪ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻪﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺎً‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻄُﻠﻖﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ‪ AGC‬ﺍﺳﻢ ‪ AGC‬ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻻﺿﻤﺤﻼﻝ‬
‫ﺑﻬﺠﻮﻡﺳﺮﻳﻊ‪ .‬ﻳﺴُﻤﺢ ﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻠﻞ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺻﻐﻴﺮ ﻗﺒﻞ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺘﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﺷﺎﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻻ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﺗﺄﺭﺟﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻃﻼﻕ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ‪ ،‬ﻓﺴﻴﺘﻢ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺭ ﺑﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪54‬‬
‫ﻟﻺﺷﺎﺭﺓﺃﺻﻐﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ‪ ،‬ﻓﺴﻴﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻠﻞ‬
‫ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭﺻﻐﻴﺮ ﺁﺧﺮ ﺛﻢ ﺗﺘﻢ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ‪.‬‬

‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺿﻤﺤﻼﻝ ﺃﺳﻲ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻟﻢ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻘﺎﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔﻟﻠﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﻥ ﻓﻬﻲ *‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻣﻞﺍﻻﺿﻤﺤﻼﻝ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻌﻴﻨﺔﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ‪.‬‬ ‫*‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪،‬ﻭﻫﻲ *‬
‫ﻳﻮﺿﺢﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 5.9‬ﺇﺟﺮﺍء ‪ ،AGC‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻗﺺ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺿﺢ‬
‫ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔﺍﻟﺨﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﻄﻊ‪ ،‬ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﺳﻲ ﻣﻊ ﻛﻞ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﺘﻔﻮﻕ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻟﻺﺷﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺑﺤﻴﺚﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺧﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺔ‪ AGC‬ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻣﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﻟﺘﻜﻮﻥ ‪ .1‬ﺗﺘﻜﺮﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺟﺮﺍء ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺩﺍﺉﻤﺎً ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻝ ﻟـ‬
‫‪ AGC‬ﻫﻮ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺿﻤﺤﻼﻝ ﻷﺱ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ‪ alf‬ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‬

‫ﺇﻳﺮﻭﺩ‪(2/‬‬
‫ﻋﻴﻦ‬
 ‫‪rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for‬‬
‫‪1‬‬

‫‪0.9‬‬

‫‪0.8‬‬

‫‪0.7‬‬

‫‪0.6‬‬

‫‪0.5‬‬

‫‪0.4‬‬

‫‪0.3‬‬

‫‪0.2‬‬

‫‪0.1‬‬

‫‪0‬‬
‫‪31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 21‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪5.9‬ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻗﺺ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ ‪ AGC‬ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻭﻳﺼﺒﺢ‬

‫ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺑﺴﺮﻋﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﺭﺟﺢ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻱ‬

‫‪BAND-PASS FILTERS‬‬
‫ﺇﻥﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻔﻴﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻫﻲ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎًﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻃﻮﻝ ﻣﻦ ‪ 48‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً ﺍﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﻬﺘﻢ‬
‫ﺑﻤﻨﺤﺪﺭﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 10‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 48‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﻴﺮﻋﻦ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻙ‪24‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫ﻙ‪9‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫=ﻙ)‪=(24−5‬‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ=‬
‫ﻙ‪5‬‬

‫ﻧﻈﺮﺍًﻷﻧﻪ ﻳﺘﻌﻴﻦ ﻋﻠﻴﻨﺎ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﺑﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺤﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺐ ﻋﺒﺮ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﺤﻞ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺴﻔﻲ ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻘﻮﻝ ﻫﻮ ‪ 1.5‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﺝ‪ 0‬ﺍﺗﻴﻮ‬ ‫‪* 201.5‬‬
‫‪0 /5. -10‬‬
‫‪ 0.7510‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫‪0.841‬‬ ‫ﺍﺗﻴﻮ‬
‫ﺑﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻋﺒﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪0.84119‬‬
‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network‬‬

‫‪190.841‬‬

‫‪0.991‬‬

‫ﺳﺄﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﺿﻤﺤﻼﻝ ‪ AGC‬ﻃﻮﺍﻝ ﺑﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ ﻣﺎ ﻟﻢ‬

‫ﻳﺘﻢﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ‪ AGC‬ﻟﺘﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﻛﺪﺍﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪ -‬ﺣﺮﻛﺔﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‬
‫ﺳﻴﺘﻢﻭﺻﻒ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ‪ .7‬ﺑﺎﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺳﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻃﻴﻒﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﻣﺴﻄﺤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻳﺠﺐﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﺎً ﻟﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺰﻳﺪﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ‪6‬‬
‫ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞﻟﻜﻞ ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻑ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺑﺪءﺍً ﻣﻦ ﺗﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻔﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻛﺎﻑ ٍﻹﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻟﻲ ﺑﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻟﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﻋﺪﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡﻟﺘﺸﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻹﺧﺮﺍﺝ‪.‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﻳﺘﻢﺿﺒﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻓﺎً ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺍً‬

‫ﺃﺳﻔﻞﺍﻟﺤﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻗﻲ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﺍﻻﺛﻨﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ‪ .‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺗﻘﻊ ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫‪ *0.5‬ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻢﺿﺒﻂ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻴﻜﻮﻥ ‪ * 0.25‬ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻗﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﺠﻌﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﻟﻠﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻓﺎًﻛﺎﻣﻼ ًﻟﻨﺼﻒ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺃﺳﻔﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰﻱ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪56‬‬

‫ﺗﻢﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﻛﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ‬

‫ﺑﻌﺪﺇﻋﻼﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺟﺮﺍء ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻗﻲ ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎً‬
‫ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺑﻪ ﺃﻗﻞ ﺑﻨﺼﻒ ﻋﺮﺽ‬
‫ﻧﻄﺎﻕﺗﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻗﻲ‬
‫ﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﺧﻞ ﻣﻊ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻗﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺍﺕﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﺮﻣﻮﺯ ‪ .1-5‬ﺭﻣﺰ ‪ EasyLanguage‬ﻟـ‬

‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‬

‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‬
‫© ‪ 2013‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ‪:‬‬

‫ﺇﻳﺮﻭﻳﺪ)‪،(20‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ)‪(3.‬؛‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .1-5‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪،(0)2‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺡ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﺎ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺑﻴﺘﺎ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺏﺏ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺇﻙ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺓ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠُﻬﺰ)‪;(0‬‬

‫)ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‪*25.‬ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ*‪ / 360‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ( ‪ +‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪2‬‬

‫‪*25.‬ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ*‪ / 360‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ( ‪ / (1 -‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‪*25.‬ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ*‪ / 360‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ(؛‬

‫‪BAND-PASS FILTERS‬‬
‫)‪ -1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪HP]1[*(2‬؛‬ ‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‪ / 360‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ(؛ (ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ‪ -‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪/ 2(*)[1‬‬ ‫ﺣﺼﺎﻥ)‪1‬‬
‫‪alpha2‬‬ ‫ﺇﻳﺘﺎ‪1‬‬
‫‪ / 1‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪ * 360‬ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ(؛ (‪- 1‬‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ‪1‬‬
‫‪;gamma1 - SquareRoot)gamma1*gamma1‬‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪1‬‬
‫ﺑﻴﺘﺎ‪ 1)*1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪- BP]1[*(1‬‬ ‫ﺹ ‪ - 1)*5.‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪ (HP - HP]2[)*(1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪BP]2[*1‬؛‬

‫‪57‬‬ ‫‪2‬ﺛﻢ ‪BP = 0‬؛‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻥ ‪ Currentbar = 1‬ﺃﻭ ‪CurrentBar‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺬﺭﻭﺓ= ‪*991.‬ﺍﻟﺬﺭﻭﺓ]‪[1‬؛‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻘﺔ )‪ < (BP‬ﺍﻟﺬﺭﻭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﻟﺬﺭﻭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻘﺔ)‪(BP‬؛‬
‫ﺍﻟﺬﺭﻭﺓ>< ‪ ،0‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ / BP‬ﺍﻟﺬﺭﻭﺓ؛‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ‪)1‬ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ(؛‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ‪(0)2‬؛‬

‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬ ‫)ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‪*1.5‬ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ*‪ / 360‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ(‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪2‬‬

‫‪*1.5‬ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ*‪ / 360‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ( ‪ / (1 -‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‪*1.5‬ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ*‪ / 360‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ(؛‬

‫(ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ‪ -‬ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ]‪alpha2 / 2(*)[1‬‬ ‫)‪1‬‬ ‫ﻣﺸﻐﻞ‬

‫‪-1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪*(2‬ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻔﺰ]‪[1‬؛‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ‪)6‬ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻔﺰ(؛‬

‫ﻓﻲﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺳﻮﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﺍﺭ ﻋﺎﻡ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻳﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﻈﻬﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻻﺭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ )ﺍﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ (DG‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ .5.10‬ﻻﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻳﺤﺪﺩ‬
‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞﺻﺤﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺩﻳﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‬
‫ﻳﻜﻮﻥﺧﺎﻃﺉﺎً ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎً ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
 ‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪5.10‬ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻟـ ‪ DG‬ﻳﺤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺩﻳﺎﻥ‬

‫ﻣﺎﺭﺱ‪ 2012‬ﻭﻳﻮﻧﻴﻮ ﻭﻳﻮﻟﻴﻮ ‪ .2012‬ﻛﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﻱ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺇﻥ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺟﻴﺪ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﺒﺪﻭ ﺧﺮﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻬﺎً ﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺟﻴﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪،‬‬
‫ﻳﺠﺐﺗﻮﺧﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺬﺭ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﺧﺮﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫ﺇﻥﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻴﺮﺓ ﻟﻼﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻫﻲ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻥ ٍﻣﺘﺼﻞ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﺴﻠﺴﻠﻲ ﺑﻤﺨﺮﺝ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺿﺒﻂ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﻟﺠﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺆﺩﻱﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﺭﺉﻴﺴﻲ ﻳﺸﺒﻪ ﺧﺮﺝ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻜﻦﻻ ﻳﺰﺍﻝ ﻟﻪ ﺧﺎﺻﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﺭ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺮﺉﻴﺴﻲ‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍﺗﻢ ﻣﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺃﺧﺬ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺧﺮﺝ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‪،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻢ ﻟﻠﻐﺎﻳﺔ ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﻛﻤﺆﺷﺮ‬
‫ﺗﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪.‬ﻭﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ ،5.11‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻐﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺉﻴﺴﻲ ﻳﻌﺒﺮ ﺧﺮﺝ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﺍﻟﻘﻤﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺩﻳﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﻗﻴﺎﺱﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻳﻮﺿﺢﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 5.10‬ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺭﺟﺤﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻛﻤﻮﺟﺔ‬
‫ﺟﻴﺒﻴﺔﺫﺍﺕ ﺳﻌﺔ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﺓ ﻭﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﺓ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕﻛﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺑﺴﻴﻂ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً ﻟﻠﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﻜﺘﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﺒﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﻣﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺒﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻛﻞ ﻋﺒﻮﺭ‬
‫ﺻﻔﺮﻣﺘﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮ‬
 ‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪5.11‬ﺗﺸﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺉﺪﺓ ﺑﻮﺿﻮﺡ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﻤﻢ ﻭﻗﻴﻌﺎﻥ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ‬
‫ﻓﻲﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ‬

‫‪BAND-PASS FILTERS‬‬
‫ﺗﺘﻜﻮﻥﺍﻟﻔﻠﻚ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺼﻒ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺿﻌﻒﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻓﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻋﺒﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎﻧﻘﻴﺲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﺑﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻦ ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﺗﻮﺳﻴﻊ‬
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‫ﻧﻄﺎﻕﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‪-‬ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐ ﺗﺸﻮﻳﻪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺑﺒﺴﺎﻃﺔ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﺉﻴﺔﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻋﺮﺽ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻳﺒﻠﻎ ‪0.7‬‬
‫ﻳﻨﺘﺞﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺑﻌﺮﺽ ﺛﻤﺎﻧﻲ ﻧﻐﻤﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ 20‬ﻭﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ‪ ،0.7‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ‪.14‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﺘﺪﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ‪ 13‬ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺳﺎً ﺇﻟﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ‪ 27‬ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺳﺎً‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻱﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻑ ﻷﻥ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻫﻲ ﺿﻌﻒ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ‪.‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺿﺒﻂ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻓﺎً ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺍً ﺃﺳﻔﻞ ﺣﺎﻓﺔ‬
‫ﻧﺼﻒﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻗﻲ ﻟﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺻﻔﺮ‬
‫ﺍﺳﻤﻲﻟﻺﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺻﻔﺮ‬
‫ﻓﻲﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻠﺘﻘﺎﻃﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮﻳﺔ ﺧﻄﺄ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ‪ .‬ﻳﺮﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻢ ‪ .2-5‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮﻱ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﺭﻭﺳﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻳﺤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻻ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ‪25‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺎﺉﺔ‪.‬ﻭﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪.5.12‬‬

‫ﻓﻲﺣﻴﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺓ ﻋﺒﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮﻱ‬

‫ﻟﺸﻜﻞﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﺃﻣﺮ ﺳﻬﻞ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻟﻴﺲ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮﺩﻗﺔ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺗﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺩﻗﺔ ﻟﻔﺤﺺ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻼﺣﻘﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ‪.‬‬
 Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS

‫ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‬5.12‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬

‫ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ‬.2-5 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﺮﻣﻮﺯ‬

‫ﺗﻘﺎﻃﻌﺎﺕﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‬

ero © 2013 John F. Ehlers ‫ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻋﺒﻮﺭ‬ 60

:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ‬
،(20)‫ﺇﻳﺮﻭﻳﺪ‬
‫(؛‬70.)‫ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ‬

:‫ﺁﺭﺱ‬
،(0)2‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‬
،(0)‫ﺹ‬
،(0)1‫ﺟﺎﻣﺎ‬
،(0)1‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‬
،(0)1‫ﺑﻴﺘﺎ‬
،(0)‫ﺏﺏ‬
،(0)‫ﺇﻙ‬
،(0)‫ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬
،(0)‫ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﺩ‬
‫(؛‬0)‫ﺩﻱﺳﻲ‬

‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬ (‫ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬/ 360*‫*ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ‬25.)‫)ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬ 2‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‬

‫ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ(؛‬/ 360*‫*ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ‬25.)‫ ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬/ (1 - (‫ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬/ 360*‫*ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ‬25.
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .2-5‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫)‪ -1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪HP]1[*(2‬؛‬ ‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‪ / 360‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ(؛ (ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ‪ -‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪/ 2(*)[1‬‬ ‫)‪1‬‬ ‫ﺇﺗﺶﺑﻲ‬

‫‪alpha2‬‬ ‫ﺇﻳﺘﺎ‪1‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪ / 1‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪ * 360‬ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ(؛ (‪- 1‬‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ‪1‬‬
‫‪;gamma1 - SquareRoot)gamma1*gamma1‬‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪1‬‬
‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪- BP]1[*(1‬‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺘﺎ‪1)*1‬‬ ‫ﺹ ‪ - 1)*5.‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪ (HP - HP]2[)*(1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪BP]2[*1‬؛‬

‫‪;0‬‬ ‫‪2‬ﺛﻢ ‪BP‬‬ ‫‪ CurrentBar‬ﺃﻭ ‪f Currentbar = 1‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺬﺭﻭﺓ= ‪*991.‬ﺍﻟﺬﺭﻭﺓ؛‬
‫ﺍﻟﺬﺭﻭﺓ؛ ‪ = BP /‬ﺍﻟﺬﺭﻭﺓ >< ‪ 0‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ‪ f‬ﺍﻟﺬﺭﻭﺓ ﺛﻢ ﺍﻟﺬﺭﻭﺓﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻘﺔ)‪(BP‬؛‬
‫< (‪f AbsValue)BP‬‬

‫ﺝ= ﺩﻱ ﺳﻲ]‪[1‬؛‬
‫ﺛﻢ‬
‫؛‪;6 DC counter = counter + 1‬‬
‫‪f DC >6‬‬

‫‪BAND-PASS FILTERS‬‬
‫ﺭﻳﺎﻝﻳﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ‪ 0‬ﺃﻭ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﻳﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ 0‬ﺛﻢ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ‪f‬‬
‫ﺗﻴﺎﺭﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ ‪*2‬ﻋﺪﺍﺩ؛‬
‫‪*1.25‬ﺩﻱ ﺳﻲ]‪[1‬؛‬ ‫؛‪ DC counter 0‬ﺛﻢ [‪DC f 2*counter > .8*DC]1‬‬
‫؛[‪. 8*DC]1‬‬ ‫ﺛﻢ [‪f 2*counter < 1.25*DC]1‬‬

‫‪61‬‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ‪)1‬ﺩﻱ ﺳﻲ(؛‬

‫‪ -‬ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺭﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ‬

‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﻫﻮ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﻹﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﻨﻌﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪.2‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻳﺘﻔﻮﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺑﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺮﻓﺾ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻊ ﻋﺮﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺢ‪.‬‬
‫‪.3‬ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺒﻮﻁ ﺑﺪﻗﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﻪ ﺃﻱ ﻋﻤﺮ‪.‬‬

‫‪.‬ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺒﻮﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓﺑﺈﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﻳﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺭﺟﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪.‬‬
‫‪.5‬ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺒﻮﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﻳﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺭﺟﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪.‬‬
‫‪.6‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺑﺮﺓ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﻣﺘﺮﺍﺑﻄﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻀﻴﻖ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﺑﻄﺄ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
 ‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻜﻴﻒ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻊ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﺳﺮﻉ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﺣﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﺴﻠﺴﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻀﺒﻮﻁﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻑ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺃﺳﻔﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻘﻀﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﻭﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﺧﺮﺝ‬
‫ﻟﻪﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺻﻔﺮ ﺍﺳﻤﻴﺎً‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺭﺍﺉﺪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﺃﺣﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﺴﻠﺴﻠﻲ ﻣﻀﺒﻮﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻋﺪﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺷﺮﻃﺔﺑﻴﻦ ﺗﻘﺎﻃﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‪.‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫‪62‬‬
 ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪.‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‪.‬‬
‫‪ John Wiley & Sons, Inc.‬ﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2013‬ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ‪© 2013 John F. Ehlers.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ‬

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‫ﻫﻴﻜﻞﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻬﻴﺮﺳﺖ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫"ﻗﺎﻝ ﺗﻮﻡ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ‪" :‬ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻟﺪﻳﻪ ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﻣﺤﺪﺩ"‪.‬‬

‫‪63‬‬ ‫ﻣﻦﺍﻟﻤﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺟﻴﺪﺍً ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻀﺎء ﻻ ﺗﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪،‬‬

‫ﻻﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺿﻮﺿﺎء ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻲ )ﺍﻟﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﻭﻧﻴﺔ( ﻭﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﺍﻟﻤﺸﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﺍﻭﻧﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻣﻊ ‪/1‬‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭ‬
‫‪1‬ﻳﺸﻴﺮ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ ﺇﻟﻰ "ﺍﻟﺬﺍﻛﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻠﺔ"‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺳﺄﺻﻒ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻣﻦ‪.‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء ‪ /1‬ﻣﺮﺍﺩﻓﺔ ﻟﻼﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺆﺩﻱﺗﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﺱ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ‪ ،2‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﻴﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺴﻴﺔﻟﻠﺘﻔﺎﺿﻞ ﺗﻘﻠﻠﻪ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ‪ .2‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء‪ /1‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍء ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺿﻞ ﻟﻤﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕﺍﻟﻤﻼﺉﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻳﺸﻴﺮ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺳﻊ ﻟﻺﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻈُﻬﺮ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺗﻔﺴﻴﺮ ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء ‪ /‬ﻫﻮ ﺃﺣﺪ‬
‫ﺃﻗﺪﻡﺍﻷﻟﻐﺎﺯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻴﺰﻳﺎء ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺻﺮﺓ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ‪.‬‬

‫ﻳﻌﺮﺽﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 6.1‬ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺳﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻷﻟﻮﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﺃﻃﻴﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔﺑﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺗﻨﺸﺄ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺳﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺭﺳﻢ ﺃﻃﻴﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺑﺈﺣﺪﺍﺛﻴﺎﺕ ﻟﻮﻏﺎﺭﻳﺘﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻌﺘﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ‬

‫ﺛﺎﺑﺖﺍﻟﺴﺠﻞ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﺝ) (‬
‫ﻭﻭﺝﻭﻭﻧﺴﺘﺎﻧﺖ‬
 ‫ﺱ)ﻑ( =ﻙ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎءﺍﻟﺒﻴﻀﺎء‬

‫ﺱ)ﻑ( = ‪/1‬ﻑ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎءﺍﻟﻮﺭﺩﻳﺔ‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﺱ)ﻑ( =‪/1‬ﻑ‪2‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎءﺍﻟﺒﻨﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺗﺮﺩﺩﺍﻟﺴﺠﻞ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺖ‬

‫ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ‪ me‬ﻭﺍﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﺪﺓ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎء‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪6.1‬‬

‫ﺑﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻏﺎﺭﻳﺘﻤﻲ ﻳﺠﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻷﺳﻲ ‪ /1‬ﺧﻄﺎً‬ ‫‪64‬‬

‫ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻤﺎًﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﻴﻠﻪ ﺑﺴﻬﻮﻟﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺿﺢ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻤﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺮﺍﻗﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺮ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺴﺠﻴﻞ ﺗﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺻﻐﻴﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞﺗﻌﺴﻔﻲ ﺃﻭ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﻌﺴﻔﻲ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺻﻠﺔ ﺑﺒﺴﺎﻃﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻮﺍﻗﻒﺍﻟﻤﻌﻘﻮﻟﺔ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﺎﺉﻴﺎً‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﺎﺩﺓﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﺗﺒﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔﺍﻟﻤﺪﻯ ﺃﻭ ﺫﺍﻛﺮﺓ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺛﺒﺖ ﻣﺮﺍﺭﺍً ﻭﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍً ﺃﻥ ﻭﻇﺎﺉﻒ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲﻟﻠﺴﻼﺳﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺃﻳﺎﻡﺃﻭ ﺃﺳﺎﺑﻴﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺷﻬﺮ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻣﻲ ﺍﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻣﺪﺍﺭﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﺗﺘﻼﺷﻰ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻟﻮ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻥﺗﻨﺸﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭ ﺫﺍﺗﻲ ﺑﺴﻴﻄﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺪﻻ ًﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺗﺼﻞ‬
‫ﻭﻇﺎﺉﻒﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺳﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﺏ‬
‫‪Log Power Spectral Density‬‬

‫ﻏﻴﺮﺻﻔﺮﻱ ﻭﺗﻈﻞ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻃﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺑﺄﻛﻤﻠﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎً ﻋﻨﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‪،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺸﻴﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺣﺪﺛﺖ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺿﻲ‬
‫‪Noise Value‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺒﻌﻴﺪﻻ ﺗﺰﺍﻝ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻴﻚ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺇﺟﺮﺍء ﺑﺤﺚ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖﺣﻮﻝ "ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ" ﻟﻠﻌﺜﻮﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﻳﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍء ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻤﺤﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻦﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﻫﻮ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻟﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻘﺒﺾ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺤﺪﺭﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﺑﻴﻦ‬
 ‫‪ .2/‬ﺍﻝ‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬ﻭ ‪ ،1‬ﻭﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍً ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ‪ .‬ﺃﺟﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱﻫﻮ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻗﺼﻴﺮﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‪ .‬ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖﺑﺎﻟﺒﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ ﻣﺜﻞ ‪2‬‬

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‫ﺃﻭﺩﺃﻥ ﺃﻭﺿﺢ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎً ﺃﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﺮﻛﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﻪ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻲﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻷﻧﻪ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﻷﻧﻪ ﻻ ﻳﺤﻤﻞ‬

‫‪MARKET STRUCTURE AND THE HURST COEFFICIENT‬‬

‫ﺃﻱﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺗﻨﺒﺆﻳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺗﻌﻜﺲ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺼﻞ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﺎﺗﻚ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ‬
‫ﺗﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻣﻊ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺟﺮﺍء‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ‬
‫ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻤﻢ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﻐﻄﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻂ ﺑﻌﺪﺩﻥ"ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺷﻴﺎءﺍﻟﺼﻐﻴﺮﺓ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺣﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ"ﺱ‪ ".‬ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺷﻴﺎء ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺘﻴﻦﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺣﺠﺎﻡ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪5‬‬ ‫ﺱ‪⎞1‬ﺩ‬ ‫ﻥ‪⎛ = 2‬‬

‫ﻥ‪⎝ 1‬ﺱ‪⎠2‬‬

‫ﻥ‪(1‬‬ ‫)‬
‫ﺳﺠﻞ ﻥ‪2‬‬
‫ﺩ=‬
‫ﺱ ‪(2‬‬ ‫)‬
‫ﺳﺠﻞ ﺱ‪1‬‬

‫ﻋﻠﻰﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺒﺪﺃ ﺑﻨﻤﻂ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬

‫ﺑﻄﻮﻝ‪ 10‬ﺃﻣﺘﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﺍﺧﺘﺮﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﻴﺮﻳﻦ ‪ 1‬ﻣﺘﺮ ﻭ‪ 0.1‬ﻣﺘﺮ‪ .‬ﺑﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺨﻂ ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻭﺿﻊ ﻋﺸﺮﺓ ﺻﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ ﺑﻄﻮﻝ ﻣﺘﺮ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﻌﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ .10‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻤﺜﻞ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻭﺿﻊ ﻣﺎﺉﺔ ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺑﻄﻮﻝ ‪ 0.1‬ﻣﺘﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫‪.100‬ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ ﻟـ‬ ‫ﻗﻄﻌﺔﺧﻂ ﻃﻮﻟﻬﺎ ‪ 10‬ﺃﻣﺘﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪،‬ﻥ‬
‫ﺛﻢﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺨﻂ ﺇﻟﻰ‪:‬‬

‫ﺳﺠﻞ)‪100‬‬
‫(‬
‫‪. 10‬‬ ‫ﺩ=‬
‫ﺳﺠﻞ)‪0 1=(1.01‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝﺛﺎﻥ‪ ٍ،‬ﺳﻨﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻂ ﻛﻤﺮﺑﻊ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺿﻠﻌﻪ ‪ 10‬ﺃﻣﺘﺎﺭ ﺑﺪﻻ ًﻣﻦ‬

‫ﻗﻄﻌﺔﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺃﺣﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﻴﺮﺓ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ‬
‫ﻣﺜﻞ‪ 1‬ﻣﺘﺮ ﻭ‪ 0.1‬ﻣﺘﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻀﻠﻊ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪100‬‬
 ‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ‪.10000‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺑﻊ ﻫﻮ ﻧﻤﻄﻨﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ‬
‫ﻟﺬﻟﻚﻳﺤﺴﺐ ﻟﻴﻜﻮﻥ‪:‬‬
‫ﺳﺠﻞ)‪10000‬‬
‫(‬
‫‪2.0 = 100‬‬ ‫ﺩ=‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫(‬
‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫ﺳﺠﻞ)‪1‬‬

‫ﻳﻤﺜﻞﺍﻟﻤﺮﺑﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻟﻲ ﻫﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﻣﺜﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﻔﺘﻘﺮ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‪،‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﻞﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺷﺎﻃﺊ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺮ‪ ،‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﻴﺔﺃﻭﺭﺛﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﺘﺸﺎﺑﻬﺔ ﺫﺍﺗﻴﺎً ﺑﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺉﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ‬
‫ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ ﻟﻸﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻨﺎ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺃﺑﻌﺎﺩﻛﺴﻮﺭﻳﻴﺔ ﺗﻢ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﺑﻤﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ ﻟﻸﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻐﻄﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﺑﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻦﺍﻟﻤﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﻴﺮﺓ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﻣﻬﻤﺔ ﺷﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺧﺬﻧﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻣﺘﺒﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﺴﺎﻭ‪ ٍ،‬ﻓﺴﻮﻑ ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺑﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩﻫﻮ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻋﺪﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻄﺮﻭﺣﺎً ﻣﻨﻪ ﺃﺩﻧﻰ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻠﻚ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪،‬ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻣﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻧﻔﺴﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﻥ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ‬
‫ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰﺳﻌﺮ‪-‬ﺃﻗﻞ ﺳﻌﺮ‬
‫ﻥ ‪=1‬‬ ‫‪66‬‬
‫ﻃﻮﻝ‬
‫ﻧﺤﺴﺐﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺛﻨﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﺭﻓﺎﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﻭﻳﺔﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻞ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‪ .‬ﺗﻐﻄﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 1‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫ﻣﻦ‪ 0‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﺒﻞﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﻐﻄﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 2‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﺒﻞ ‪ 2‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪,‬‬ ‫)ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻌﺮ‪-‬ﺃﻗﻞ ﺳﻌﺮﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ‪ 0‬ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻭﻓﺮﺳﻌﺮﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻲ‬ ‫)ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻌﺮ‬ ‫‪ .‬ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓﻣﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺴﻤﺔﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫)ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺃﺩﻧﻰ ﺳﻌﺮ‬ ‫‪ .‬ﻧﺤﻦﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻧﺤﺪﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﻡﺇﻟﻰ ‪,2‬ﻣﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺳﻌﺮ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ‪ 0‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪,2‬ﻣﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪.2‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺭﺍءﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ ﻫﻮ‪:‬‬
‫ﺳﺠﻞ)ﻥ‪+1‬ﻥ‪− (2‬ﺳﺠﻞ)ﻥ‪(3‬‬
‫ﺩ=‬
‫ﺳﺠﻞ)‪(2‬‬

‫‪.2‬ﻣﻨﺬ‬ ‫‪1‬ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻳﺨﺘﻠﻒﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ ﻋﺒﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ‬

‫‪ ,‬ﻟﻬﺬﺍﺍﻟﺴﺒﺐ‪.‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺗﺒﻂﺑﺎﻟﺒﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻳﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ‪ t‬ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 0‬ﻭ ‪ .1‬ﺗﺸﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ 0.5‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺴﺎﺭ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻲ )ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔﺭﻭﻧﻴﺔ(‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻋﻨﺼﺮ ‪ ny‬ﻭﻋﻨﺼﺮ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‪.‬ﻳﺸﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 0.5‬ﻭ ‪ 1‬ﺇﻟﻰ "ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ"‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ‬
‫ﻃﻮﻳﻞﺍﻷﻣﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ‬
 ‫ﺑﻴﻦ‪ 0‬ﻭ ‪ 0.5‬ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﻊ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ "ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﻣﻀﺎﺩ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ" ‪ -‬ﺑﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪"،‬ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﻣﻀﺎﺩ ﻟﻼﺗﺠﺎﻩ" )ﻣﺼﻄﻠﺢ ﺃﻛﺮﻫﻪ(‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪MARKET STRUCTURE AND THE HURST COEFFICIENT‬‬
‫ﺗﻢﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﻛﻮﺩ ‪ asyLanguage‬ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪.1-6‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻞﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻫﻮ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﻌﺴﻔﻲ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻟﺪﻳﻚ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻛﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺉﺞﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺣﺎﺳﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻋﻼﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ‪،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ‪ SuperSmoother‬ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ‬
‫‪20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏﻥ‪,‬ﻥ‪,‬ﻭﻥ‪ 3‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺑﻌﺪ‬
‫ﺫﻟﻚﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻤﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ‬
‫ﻓﻲﻣﺮﺷﺢ ‪.SuperSmoother‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﺮﻣﻮﺯ ‪ .1-6‬ﺭﻣﺰ ‪ EasyLanguage‬ﻟـ‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞﺃﻭﺭﺳﺖ‬
‫‪67‬‬ ‫© ‪ 2013‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ)‪(30‬؛ }ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ﻋﺪﺩﺍً ﺯﻭﺟﻴﺎً{‬

‫ﺁﺭﺱ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺏ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫‪،(0)1‬‬
‫‪،(0)2‬‬
‫‪،(0)3‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﻥ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﻥ‪،(0)2‬‬
‫ﻥ‪،(0)3‬‬
‫ﺡ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﻝﻝ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﺑﻌﺎﺩ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﺭﺳﺖ)‪،(0‬‬
‫;(‪moothHurst)0‬‬
‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .1-6‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫‪/‬ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﻌﻮﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ 3-3‬ﺃ‪1‬‬

‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ )‪(20 / 3.14159*1.414-‬؛ ‪*a1*2‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪(20 / 180*1.414‬؛‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪ =2‬ﺏ‪1‬؛‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺃ‪*1‬ﺃ‪1‬؛‬
‫‪ - 1 =1‬ﺝ‪ - 2‬ﺝ‪3‬؛‬

‫)ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ )ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ( ‪ -‬ﺍﻷﺩﻧﻰ )ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ(( ‪/‬‬ ‫ﻥ‪3‬‬

‫ﻃﻮﻝ؛‬
‫ﻳﻐﻠﻖ؛‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﺱﺡ ﺡ‬

‫ﻝ =ﻳﻐﻠﻖ؛‬
‫‪0‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ‪ 1 - 2 /‬ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﺪ‬
‫ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ[؛ ‪ LL‬ﺛﻢ ‪ > LL‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ[ ‪ f‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ[؛ = ‪ HH‬ﺛﻢ ‪< HH‬‬
‫ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ[ ‪f‬‬
‫ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ؛‬
‫؛ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ‪[2 /‬؛(ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ‪- LL( / )2 /‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪)HH‬‬ ‫ﺱﺡ ﺡ‬

‫ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ‪[2 /‬؛‬ ‫ﻝ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ‪ 2 /‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ‪ 1 -‬ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﺪ‬
‫ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ[؛ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ؛ ‪ LL‬ﺛﻢ ‪ > LL‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ[ ‪ f‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ[؛ = ‪HH‬‬
‫‪68‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ‪ < HH‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ[ ‪f‬‬

‫؛(ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ‪)HH - LL(/)2 /‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻥ ‪ N1 < 0‬ﻭ ‪ N2 < 0‬ﻭ ‪ N3 < 0‬ﻓﺈﻥ ‪Dimen = .5*))Log)N1‬‬
‫ﺩﻳﻤﻦ]‪;([1‬‬ ‫‪N2( - Log)N3(( / Log)2( +‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪ؛‪urst 2 -‬‬
‫ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ]‪*c2 + 2 / ([1‬ﺳﻤﻮﺙ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ]‪[1‬‬ ‫ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ)*‪moothHurst = c1‬‬
‫‪ +‬؛[‪c3*SmoothHurst]2‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ‪)1‬ﺳﻤﻮﺙ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ(؛‬

‫‪ -‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ )ﺍﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ (G‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 6.2‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ‪.30‬‬
‫ﻣﻊﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻹﻋﺪﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﺄﺭﺟﺢ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺇﻇﻬﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ ،200‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ‬
‫ﻓﻲﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ ،6.3‬ﻳﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻮﺩﻱ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﻟﻴﺼﺒﺢ‬
‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰﻣﻦ ‪.0.5‬‬
 ‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪MARKET STRUCTURE AND THE HURST COEFFICIENT‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻃﻮﻝ ‪ ،30‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﻭﻝ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻳﺘﺄﺭﺟﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪6.2‬‬
‫ﺇﻇﻬﺎﺭﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻭﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺭﺑﻤﺎﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻴﺪ ﻭﺻﻒ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﻧﻈﺮﻱ‬

‫ﺁﺧﺮ‪.‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ ،6.4‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﺟﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺗﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ‬
‫ﻓﺘﺮﺗﻬﺎﺑﺎﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻴﺴﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 10‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 40‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪.‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً ﺗﻘﺎﺭﺏ ‪... 10‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺼﻒ ﺍﻷﻓﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻋﻄﻴﺖ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﻣﺪﺧﻼ ًﺑﻘﻴﻤﺔ ‪ .20‬ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ‬
‫ﻳﺮﺟﻊﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻤﻢ ﻭﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺎﺕ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﺗﻤﻴﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ "ﻣﻞء‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻢﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻑ ﺍﻷﻃﻮﻝ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪6.3‬‬

‫ﺃﻛﺒﺮﻣﻦ ‪ 0.5‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ‪200‬‬
 ‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪6.4‬‬

‫ﻏﻴﺮﺛﺎﺑﺖ؛ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺿﻬﺎ ﻛـ‬ ‫ﻋﺮﺽﺍﻷﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮ ﻛـ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ‬

‫"ﺻﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ" ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻈﻮﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ‬

‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ )‪ (0.5‬ﻭﺃﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ )‪ (0.5‬ﻓﻲ‬
‫‪.‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔﻟﻄﻮﻝ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩ ‪arket‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺔﻣﺸﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻴﺮ ﻟﻬﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬

‫ﻟﻘﺪﺍﻓﺘﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﻧﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎّﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻨﺺ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﻳﻌﻜﺲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺽ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺯﻋﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞﻣﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ‪ .‬ﻣﻌﺎً‪ ،‬ﺗﺸﻜﻞ ﻫﺎﺗﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺘﺎﻥ ﻧﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ‪ .‬ﻳﻘﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻃﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺮﻭﻃﺔ ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺘﻄﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕﺇﻥ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻲ ﻧﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺿﺢ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻴﺐ‪.‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺉﺪ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺎً‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻲ ﻧﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﻛﻞ ﻣﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺉﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻼ ًﻋﻦ ﺃﻱ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻓﺘﺮﺽﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﺪﺩﺍ ًﻛﺎﻓﻴﺎ ًﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻛﻴﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬
‫ﺑﺤﻴﺚﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺉﻲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ ﻣﻼﺉﻤﺎ‪ً.‬‬
‫ﻭﻻﺑﺪﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﺪﺓ ﻗﻴﻮﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺘﻠﺨﺺ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻓﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻣﻘﻴﺪﺓ ﺑﺒﻌﺪ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ـ ﻓﻼ ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻨﺨﻔﺾ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻳﺘﻠﺨﺺﺍﻟﻘﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻻﺑﺪ ﻭﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺭﺗﻴﺐ‪.‬‬
 ‫ﺃﻗﺘﺮﺡﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎً ﻓﻠﺴﻔﻴﺎً ﻟﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺜﻒ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻲﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻬﺪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﻔﻴﺰﻳﺎﺉﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﻴﺮ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺜﻞ‬
‫ﻫﺬﺍﺍﻟﻤﺸﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ ﻫﻮ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺳﻜﻴﺮ ﻳﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺃﺣﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺑﺎﻧﺘﻈﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺮﻣﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻴﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ‬

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‫ﻭﻳﺨﻄﻮﺧﻄﻮﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻴﻦ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻴﺴﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍً ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺭﻣﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻮﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻱ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﻣﻦ ‪ ،1 + 2‬ﻭﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬

‫‪MARKET STRUCTURE AND THE HURST COEFFICIENT‬‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﺟﻮﺩﻩ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻱ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ‪ .‬ﺩﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻓﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﻜﺔ‬
‫‪ .‬ﻟﻮ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥ‪,‬ﻭﻟﻴﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻗﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺑﻘﺎﻳﺎ‬
‫ﻳﺴُﻤﺢﻟﻠـ ‪ nd‬ﺑﺎﻻﻧﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺗﺠﻌﻞ ) ‪ Δ /‬ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ‪,‬ﺛﻢ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﻜﻢ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺇﺯﺍﺣﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺷﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻧﻘﻄﺔﺑﺪﺍﻳﺘﻪ ﻫﻲ‬

‫‪δ‬ﺹ ‪2δ‬ﺹ‬
‫=ﺩ‬
‫‪δ‬ﺱ‪2‬‬ ‫‪δ‬ﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ‬
‫‪،‬ﺕ( ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻔﺴﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺘﻴﻦ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺆﺧﺬ‬ ‫ﺗﺸَﻜْﻴﻞ‪.‬ﺍﻟﻮﻇﻴﻔﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﻴﺮﻋﻦ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺃﻋﻘﺐﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺿﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪.‬ﻭﺑﻨﺎء ًﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﻴﺮ ﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪،‬ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺑﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺎﻕ ﻣﻠﻌﻘﺔ ﻓﻀﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻭﺿﻌﻬﺎ‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﻓﻨﺠﺎﻥ ﻗﻬﻮﺓ ﺳﺎﺧﻦ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻔﻬﻢﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ‪ ،‬ﺗﺨﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺨﺮﺝ ﺑﻬﺎ ﻋﻤﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﺎﻥﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻜﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺤﻮ ﻣﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﻟﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﻋﺒﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ .‬ﻳﺤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻠﻄﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺑﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﺎﻥﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﺗﺴﺎﻉ ﻋﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﺎﻥ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺟﺰﻳﺉﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﺎﻥﻛﺪﺍﻟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻓﺔﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻨﺔ ﻫﻲ ‪ 1.5‬ﻣﺘﺮ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺗﺴﺎﻉ ﻳﺸﺒﻪ ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺩﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ‬
‫ﺑﺄﺳﻌﺎﺭﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﻴﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥﺻﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﻣﺸﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻴﺮ ﻻ ﺗﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺎﺻﻴﺔ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻧﻈﻴﺮﺍً‬
‫ﻟﻠﺰﺧﻢ‪.‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﻟﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺴﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﻱ ﻳﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺧﺬ ﺷﻜﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻦﺃﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﻛﺮﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ‪ -‬ﻧﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻳﻦ ﺟﺎء ﺍﻟﺠﺴﻢ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﺫﻟﻚ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺴﺘﻤﺮﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺃﺑﺴﻂ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ‬
‫ﻫﻮﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﻟﺮﻣﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﻛﺔ‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺹﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻴﺮ ﺑﺨﻄﻮﺗﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬
‫‪1‬ﺹﻫﻮ ﻳﺼﻨﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻲﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻛﺲ‪ .‬ﺗﺤﺪﺙ ﻣﺸﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻱ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺹ‪1/2‬‬
‫ﻷﻥﺃﻱ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﻛﺘﻴﻦ ﻣﺘﺴﺎﻭﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺰﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻴﺮﺓ ﻟﻼﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺇﻥﻣﺸﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻤﻮﺭ ﻫﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻓﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ‬
 ‫ﻣﻊﺍﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻮﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻟﻢ ﻳﻌﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﺹ‬‫‪2‬‬
‫‪δ2‬‬ ‫‪2δ‬ﺹ‪δ1‬ﺹ‬
‫=ﺝ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪δ‬ﺱ‪2‬‬ ‫‪δ‬ﺕ‪ +2‬ﺕ‪δ‬ﺕ‬

‫ﻓﻲﺑﻌﺪ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ‪ T‬ﻭ‪ c‬ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺗﻔﺎﺿﻠﻴﺔ ﺟﺰﺉﻴﺔ ﺷﻬﻴﺮﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‬
‫ﺗﺴﻤﻰﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﺗﺐ‪.‬ﺗﻌﺒﺮ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﻳﺤﺪﺙ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖﻣﻘﻴﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺑﺤﻴﺚ‬
‫ﺕﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺿﻊ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺳﺮﻋﺔ ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ) ﻣﻀﺮﻭﺑﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ) (‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻷﻫﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻐﺮﺍﻑ‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﺗﺼﻒﺍﻟﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻓﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺟﺔﺱ‪ ،‬ﺕﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎً ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺉﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲﺗﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻋﺒﺮ ﺯﻭﺝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﻼﻙ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺮﻛﺔﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻓﻘﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺘﺸﺮﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻜﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻻﺿﻄﺮﺍﺏﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻱ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻳﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺬﺭﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺮﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻤﻜﻨﻚ ﺇﺛﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮﺑﻨﻔﺴﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺣﻤﻞ ﻣﺴﻄﺮﺓ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺣﺎﻓﺔ ﻃﺎﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺛﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺣﺔ‬
‫ﻷﺳﻔﻞ‪،‬ﺛﻢ ﺇﻃﻼﻗﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻻﻫﺘﺰﺍﺯ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻫﻮ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻘﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻭ ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻚ ﺑﺪﻻ ًﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺫﻟﻚﻣﺪ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﻣﻄﺎﻃﻲ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺃﺻﺎﺑﻌﻚ‪ ،‬ﻭﺳﺤﺐ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻂ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻧﺒﻴﻦ‪،‬‬
‫ﺛﻢﺇﻃﻼﻗﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﺬﺑﺬﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﺎﻃﻲ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻘﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻧﻈﺮﺍً‬
‫ﻟﻮﺟﻮﺩﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﻻﺿﻄﺮﺍﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﻮﺳﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮﻯﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻴﺲ ﺳﻮﻯ ﻣﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺻﻐﻴﺮﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔﺍﻟﻤﺸﻲ ﻟﺮﻭﻧﻜﺎﺭﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻈﻮﺍﻫﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﻴﺰﻳﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﻟﻮﺻﻒ ﻋﻤﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﻟﺤﻞ ﻣﺸﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻴﺮ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺼﻒ ﺣﺎﻟﺘﻴﻦ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻮﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻴﻦ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻴﺴﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻭﺿﻊﺍﻟﺘﻤﺰﻳﻖﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﺻﻮﻑ ﺑﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻁ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝﺍﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻨﺤﺮﻓﺎً‪ ،‬ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﺻﻮﻑ ﺑﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻐﺮﺍﻑ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﻔﺎﺭﻕ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻃﻴﻦ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﺴﻴﻄﺎً ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺆﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻄﺮﺣﻪ ﺃﻏﻠﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻔﺴﻬﻢ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺆﺍﻝ "ﺃﺗﺴﺎءﻝ ﻋﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕﺳﻴﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺃﻡ ﺳﻴﻨﺨﻔﺾ؟"‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ‬
‫‪ ،%50‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺆﺳﺲ ﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﻧﻤﻂ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻢ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺍﻟﺴﺆﺍﻝ "‬
‫ﻫﻞﺳﻴﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ؟"‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﺗﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻐﺮﺍﻑ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺄﺳﻴﺲ ﻧﻤﻂ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ‪.‬‬

‫ﻳﺼﻒﺣﻞ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻐﺮﺍﻑ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﺗﻌﺮﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺮ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﻛﺼﻮﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺟﻮﻳﺔ‪،‬ﻳﺘﻌﺮﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻧﻬﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ‪ .‬ﻻ ﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺗﻌﺮﺟﻪ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻧﻘﺺ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﻧﺲ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﺔ‪،‬ﺑﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪) .‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻚ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺪﺭﻙ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺠﺎﻧﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻴﺲ‬
 ‫ﺇﻥﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺠﻌﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻄﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﺘﻌﺮﺝ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺳﻂﻣﺘﺠﺎﻧﺲ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻄﻴﺔ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﻣﺮﺉﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻷﻧﻬﺎﺭ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻬﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻴﺴﺖﻣﺄﻟﻮﻓﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻈﻤﻨﺎ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻌﺮﺝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺟﻤﻴﻌﻬﺎﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻴﺔ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎً‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻧﻈﺮﻧﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﻛﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺿﻌﻨﺎ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻓﻮﻕ‬

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‫ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪،‬ﻓﺴﻮﻑ ﻧﺠﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻄﻴﺔ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﻣﺮﺉﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻷﻧﻬﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﻓﻮﺗﻮﻏﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺽ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻴﺔ‬

‫‪MARKET STRUCTURE AND THE HURST COEFFICIENT‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺟﺎﺕﻗﺪ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﻭﺍﺿﺤﺔ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً‪ .‬ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻛﺐ ﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺮﻫﻮ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻄﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺿﻲ ﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ‬
‫ﻛﻨﺎﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﻌﻄﻒ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﻓﻨﺤﻦ ﻣﺘﺄﻛﺪﻭﻥ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﻨﻬﺮ‬
‫ﻟﻤﺴﺎﻓﺔﻗﺼﻴﺮﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﻣﺠﺮﻯ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺮ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺮ‬
‫ﺑﺄﻧﻪﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﺘﻤﺎﺳﻚ ﻗﺼﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﻯ ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻪ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﻤﺮ ﺑﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﻮﺳﻌﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻧﺨﻔﻒﻣﻦ ﺣﺪﺓ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺮﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﻭﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻬﺎ ﻟﺼﺎﻟﺤﻨﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺩﺭﻛﻨﺎ ﺃﻧﻬﺎ ﻗﺪ‬
‫ﺗﺄﺗﻲﻭﺗﺬﻫﺐ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﻴﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﻮﺳﻌﻨﺎﺃﻥ ﻧﻮﺳﻊ ﺗﺸﺒﻴﻬﻨﺎ ﻟﻔﻬﻢ ﻣﺘﻰ ﺗﺤﺪﺙ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﺼﻴﺮﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﺎﻷﻧﻬﺎﺭﺗﺘﻌﺮﺝ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺤﺪﺭ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻓﻲ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻂ‪.‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺤﺪﺭ ﺷﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺬﻱﻳﺤﺪﺛﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺰﻟﺞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻠﻮﻯ ﺫﻫﺎﺑﺎ ًﻭﺇﻳﺎﺑﺎ ًﻋﺒﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺤﺪﺭ ﻹﺑﻄﺎء ﻧﺰﻭﻟﻪ‪.‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻀﺒﻂﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺮ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺎ ًﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﺗﺴﺎﺭﻋﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ‪،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺮ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻗﺺ ﻟﻴﻌﻄﻲ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻖ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﺮﻉﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺣﺮﻛﻴﺔ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺤﺎﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺮ ﺇﺑﻄﺎﺉﻪ ﺑﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖﻧﻔﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺮ ﻓﺠﺄﺓ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺯﺧﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻴﺎﺭ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﻥﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﺍﻧﺤﻨﺎءﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺮﻯ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺮ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﻧﺤﻨﺎءﺍﺕ ﺗﺠﻌﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺮ‬
‫ﻳﺴﻠﻚﻣﺴﺎﺭﺍ ًﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﺄﻗﻞ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻭﻣﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﺼﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺘﻌﻴﻦ ﻋﻠﻴﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻔﻜﺮ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻻﺑﺪ ﻭﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻹﻓﺮﺍﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍء ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﺗﻨﺸﺄ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﻔﺎﻅﻋﻠﻰ "ﻃﺎﻗﺔ" ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﻨﺸﺄ ﻫﺬﻩ "ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ" ﻣﻦ ﺧﻮﻑ ﻭﺟﺸﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﻢ‪،‬ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻴﺪ ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻣﺒﺪﺃ ﺣﻔﻆ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺑﻨﻔﺴﻚ‪ .‬ﻗﻢ ﺑﺘﻤﺰﻳﻖ‬
‫ﺷﺮﻳﻂﺑﻌﺮﺽ ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 1‬ﺑﻮﺻﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻭﺭﻗﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻳﺒﻠﻎ ﻃﻮﻟﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ‪ 11‬ﺑﻮﺻﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺴﻚ ﻛﻞ ﻃﺮﻑ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻂ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻹﺑﻬﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﺒﺎﺑﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻜﻞﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻵﻥ ﺣﺮﻙ ﻳﺪﻳﻚ ﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﻛﻞ‬
‫ﺇﻥﺿﻐﻄﻚ ﻳﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺘﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﻌﺔ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺔﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻓﺮﺿﺘﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻛﻠﺘﺎ ﻳﺪﻳﻚ ﺗﺸﻴﺮﺍﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﻮﺳﺎً ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺍً ﻷﻋﻠﻰ‪ ،‬ﻳﻘﺘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﺏ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻟﺠﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻛﻠﺘﺎ ﺍﻟﻴﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺸﻴﺮﺍﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺳﻔﻞ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﻮﺳﺎً ﻷﺳﻔﻞ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ‬
 ‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺇﺣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻴﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺸﻴﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺗﺸﻴﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺳﻔﻞ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻂ ﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﺟﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺑﻌﺔﺍﻷﺩﻧﻰ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﻓﻘﺎً ﻟﻤﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﻟﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻚ‬
‫ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝﺍﻧﺤﻨﺎءﺍﺕ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﺰﺍﺯ ﺍﻟﻄﻔﻴﻒ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺨﺘﻔﻲ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡﺍﻟﻮﺭﻕ ﻟﻼﻟﺘﻘﺎﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﺩﻧﻰ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻗﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻔﺮﺿﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﻭﺿﻌﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻫﻤﺎ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻓﻘﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺿﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻭﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩﻱ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕﻟﺪﻳﻪ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺍﻷﻭﻗﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ﻗﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻮﻝ ﻣﻦ ‪ 8‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ .10‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ‪،‬‬
‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺰﺍﻣﻨﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻨﺎﻏﻤﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞﻋﺎﻡ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻏﻢ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻻ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺰﺍﻣﻨﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻨﺎﻏﻤﺔ ﻻ‬

‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺃﻥ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﺇﻧﻬﺎ ﻧﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺑﻤﺎ ﻳﻜﻔﻲ ﻻﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺴﻄﺔ ﻟﺤﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪.‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﺗﻤﻴﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺩﻋﻢ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺿﻄﺮﺍﺏ ﻫﻲ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻏﻤﺔ ﺭﺗﻴﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﺗﻴﻮﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻦﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﻨﺖ ﻣﻄﺮﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺑﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﻳﺒﺪﻭ ﻭﻛﺄﻧﻪ ﻣﺴﻤﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻳﺠﺐ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻴﻨﺎﺃﻥ ﻧﺤﺮﺹ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺩﺭﺍﻙ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻞ ﺗﺤﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻻ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻭﺻﻔﻬﺎ ﺑﺪﻗﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺧﻼﻝﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺣﺪﻫﺎ ﻭﺃﻥ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﺩﺍﺉﻤﺎً‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺇﺩﺭﺍﻙ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﻣﻔﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙﺃﻭﻗﺎﺗﺎً ﻳﺴﻮﺩ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺣﻞ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻐﺮﺍﻑ ﻭﺃﻭﻗﺎﺗﺎً ﻳﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺣﻞ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ‪.‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺧﻼﻝﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﻦ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺑﻨﺎ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻨﺎ ﺫﻫﺎﺑﺎً ﻭﺇﻳﺎﺑﺎً ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺓ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻼءﻣﺔﻭﻓﻘﺎً ﻟـ‬
‫ﻧﻈﺮﺍًﻷﻥ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻨﺎ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻱ ﻭﻗﺖ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ‬
‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺭﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻋﻀﺎء‬
‫‪.1‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺑﺄﻧﻬﺎ ﺿﻮﺿﺎء ﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺗﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﻛﺮﺓ‬
‫ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔﺍﻟﻤﺪﻯ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﺑﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﻟﻠﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻀﻮﺿﺎء ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺒﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻄﻠﺤﺎﺕ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻟﻠﺘﺒﺎﺩﻝ‪.‬‬
‫‪.‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍً ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ‪.‬‬
‫ﻻﻳﻤﺘﻠﻚ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﺃﻱ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺗﻨﺒﺆﻳﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﻪ ﻓﺎﺉﺪﺓ‬
‫ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪.‬‬
 Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
MARKET STRUCTURE AND THE HURST COEFFICIENT
‫ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬.5

.‫ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬0.5 ‫ﻳﺸﻴﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ‬.6

1. . H.Weiss ‫ﻭ‬. J. ubin، "‫ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ‬:‫"ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ‬،

.‫ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻧﻤﻂ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ‬0.5 ‫ﻳﺸﻴﺮﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﻴﺮﺳﺖ ﺍﻷﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻧﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻣﺸﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻴﺮ ﻟﺘﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﻓﻠﺴﻔﻲ‬

‫ﺃﻭﺗﻲ‬

.05 363 :(1982) 52‫ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭﺍﺕﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻴﺰﻳﺎء ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﻴﺎﺉﻴﺔ‬

.‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻪ‬

.‫ﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬

5
 ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪.‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‪.‬‬
‫‪ John Wiley & Sons, Inc.‬ﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2013‬ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ‪© 2013 John F. Ehlers.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‬
‫ﻗﺎﻝﺗﻮﻡ ﺑﺼﻮﺕ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻊ‪" :‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ"‪.‬‬

‫ﺗﻌُﻠﻤِّﻨﺎﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻳﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ "ﺻﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ"‬

‫‪:‬ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﻧﻘﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺇﺧﺮﺍﺝ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞﻣﻌﻘﺪﺍً ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺮﻏﺒﺔ ﻭﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﺗﻌﻘﻴﺪﺍً‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﺼﻠﺔﺑﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ‪ .‬ﻟﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺐ‪ ،‬ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺿﺖ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻃﺒﻘﺖ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﺎً‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺤﺪﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ‪ .‬ﻟﻘﺪ ﻛﻨﺖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﻳﺔ ﺑﻄﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺴﻮﺭﻳﺔﻭﺍﻟﻠﻮﻏﺎﺭﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻏﺎﺭﻳﺘﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻪ ﺃﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﻓﻴﺒﻮﻧﺎﺗﺸﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻟﻢ‬
‫ﻳﺨﻄﺮﺑﺒﺎﻟﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﻤﺘﺪ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺭﺟﺤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺍﻟﺮﺍﺩﻳﻜﺎﻝ‪.‬‬
‫ﺻﺎﻍﺍﻟﻤﺼﻄﻠﺢﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲﻟﺘﻠﺨﻴﺺ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻟﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻴﻖﻋﻠﻰﻟﻴﺮﺓ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻧﻴﺔﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﻫﻤﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺷﺎﺉﻊ ﻷﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕﻻ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﺍﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺗﻔﺴﻴﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕﺍﻟﺸﺎﺉﻌﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ )‪ (RSI‬ﺃﻭ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺳﺘﻮﻛﺎﺳﺘﻴﻚ‬
‫ﻣﻦﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻤﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻯﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ‬

‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ "ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ" ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﺪﺧﻞ ﻗﺒﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻉﻓﻲ ﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﻣﺆﺷﺮ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻳﻤﺮﺭﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺎﺭﺍً‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪.‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ‪ SuperSmoother‬ﻳﻤﺮﺭ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥﻓﺘﺮﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺑﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﻭﺍﺳﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻳﻤﺮﺭ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ‬
 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﻊ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻭ‪ 48‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺪ ﺫﺍﺗﻪ‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺑﺴﻴﻂ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺭﻣﺰ ‪ EasyLanguage‬ﻟﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﻣﻮﺯ‪ ،1-7‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺽ ﻧﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪.7.1‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﺣﻴﻦ ﻳﺘﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺬﺑﺬﺑﺎﺕ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻊ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﺻﺎﻋﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪ .1-7‬ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺴﻘﻒ ‪HP-LP‬‬

‫ﻛﻮﺩﺍﻟﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻠﺔ‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺍﻟﺴﻘﻒ ‪P-LP‬‬
‫© ‪ 2013‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‬

‫ﺁﺭﺱ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺹ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺃ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺏ‪،(0)1‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪،(0)1‬‬
‫‪،(0)2‬‬
‫‪،(0)3‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ)‪;(0‬‬

‫‪/‬ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺎﺭﺍً‬

‫ﺟﻴﺐ)‪/ (1 - (48 / 360‬‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪)1‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪ (48 / 360‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‬

‫‪(48 / 360‬؛‬
‫؛[‪ - 1(*HP]1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪( 1‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ‪ -‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪(*)[1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪P )1 - 2 / 1‬‬

‫‪//‬ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﻌﻮﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ 3-3‬ﺃ‪1‬‬

‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ )‪(10 / 3.14159*1.414-‬؛ ‪*a1*2‬‬
‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪(10 / 180*1.414‬؛ ﺏ‪1‬؛‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪-‬ﺃ‪*1‬ﺃ‪1‬؛‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺝ‪ - 2‬ﺝ‪3‬؛‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪[2‬؛*‪c3‬‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪c2*[1‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪)*1‬ﺣﺼﺔ ﺣﺼﺎﻥ ﺣﺼﺎﻥ]‪2 / ([1‬‬ ‫ﻓﻠﺘﺮ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ‪)1‬ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ(؛‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ‪(0)2‬؛‬
 ‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ‬ ‫ﻻﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺽ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﻮﺭﻱ‪7.1‬‬

‫‪SPECTRAL DILATION‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﺸﻜﻞﻋﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﺧﺮﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺻﻔﺮ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺮﺝﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﺗﻘﻊ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻭ‪48‬‬
‫ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﻴﺮﻟﻌﺪﻡ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺻﻔﺮﻱ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻥ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ‬
‫ﻃﺎﻗﺔﻃﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻊ ‪ ،/1‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻌﺔ ‪ am‬ﺑﻤﻌﺪﻝ ‪ 6‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ‬
‫‪9‬‬
‫ﻟﻜﻞﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻑ‪ ،‬ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻗﻞ‪ .‬ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺤﺪﺭ ﺭﻓﺾ‬
‫ﻳﺰﻳﺪﺍﻟﺘﻮﻫﻴﻦ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻊﻑ‪5.‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﺪﺣﺮﺝ‪ r‬ﺑﻤﻌﺪﻝ ‪ 6‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻑ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﻟﻤﻮﺿﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ .1.2‬ﻭﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻫﻮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻧﻤﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﻮﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻠﺔﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻳﺰﺍﻝ ﺧﺮﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻫﺬﻩ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻟﻬﺎ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﻫﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﺁﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ‪6‬‬
‫ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻑ‪ ،‬ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﻣﻔﺘﺮﺽﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺻﻞ‪ .‬ﻟﻘﺪ ﺃﺿﻔﺖ ‪ Filt2‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺿﺢ ‪،2-7‬‬
‫ﻭﻳﻈﻬﺮﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻛﺨﻂ ﻣﺘﺼﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ .7.2‬ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻈﻠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺎﻃﻌﺔ‪ .‬ﻻﺣﻆ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﻧﺸﺎء‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺻﻔﺮ ﺍﺳﻤﻴﺎً‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻃﻮﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﺗﺰﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺇﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻈﺮﺍًﻷﻥ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺗﺼﺎﻝ ﺗﺴﻠﺴﻠﻲ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﺃﺣﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ‪،‬ﻭﺟﻬﺎﺯ ‪ ،SuperSmoother‬ﻭﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﺃﺣﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ ﺁﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺮﻭﻑﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ ﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺗﺼﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻠﻲ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ ﻭﺟﻬﺎﺯ ‪.SuperSmoother‬‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﺮﻣﻮﺯ ‪ .2-7‬ﺭﻣﺰ ‪ EasyLanguage‬ﻟـ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺍﻟﺴﻘﻒ ﺫﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮﻱ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺍﻟﺴﻘﻒ ‪2013 John F. Ehlers‬‬
‫© ‪ero Mean‬‬

‫ﺁﺭﺱ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺹ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺃ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﺏ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫‪،(0)1‬‬
‫‪،(0)2‬‬
‫‪،(0)3‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﻓﻴﻠﺖ‪(0)2‬؛‬

‫‪/‬ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺎﺭﺍً‬

‫ﺟﻴﺐ)‪/ (1 - (48 / 360‬‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪)1‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪ (48 / 360‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‬

‫‪(48 / 360‬؛‬
‫(ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ‪ -‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪HP )1 - alpha1 / 2(*)[1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪HP]1[*(1‬؛‬
‫‪//‬ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﻌﻮﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ 3-3‬ﺃ‪1‬‬
‫‪;(10 /‬‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ )‪3.14159*1.414-‬‬
‫‪;(10 /‬‬ ‫‪*a1*2‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪180*1.414‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺏ‪1‬؛‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪-‬ﺃ‪*1‬ﺃ‪1‬؛‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺝ‪ - 2‬ﺝ‪3‬؛‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪[2‬؛*‪c3‬‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪c2*[1‬‬ ‫‪HP]1[( / 2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ= ‪)*c1‬ﺣﺼﺎﻥ‬
‫‪( +‬ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ ‪ -‬ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪Filt2= )1 - alpha1 / 2(*)[1‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪Filt2]1[*(1‬؛‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ‪)1‬ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ(؛‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ‪)2‬ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ‪(2‬؛‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ‪(0)6‬؛‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ ﻛﻤﺆﺷﺮ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﻳﻘﻮﻡﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ ﺑﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﻤﺘﺎﺯ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺗﻪﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻔﻠﻰ‪ .‬ﻛﻞ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﻪ ﻹﻧﺸﺎء ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ ﻫﻮ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ‬
 ‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱﺇﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻓﻘﻂ‬ ‫ﺇﻳﺮﻭﻳﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻳﻮﺭﻱ‪7.2‬‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ‬

‫‪SPECTRAL DILATION‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡﺑﺘﻮﻓﻴﺮ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﻛﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﻛﻮﺩ ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪ ،3-7‬ﺗﻢ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻛﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻟﻲﺃﺣﺎﺩﻱ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ‪.‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﺍء ﻫﻮ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺩﻧﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺗﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺨﺮﻭﺝﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺸﻮﻑ ﻫﻮ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺫﺭﻭﺗﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺗﻤﻴﻴﺰ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻋﺒﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ ﻟﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﻣﻊ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺷﺮﻳﻄﻴﻦ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻳﺘﻢﺗﻀﻤﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻛﺠﺰء ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ‪.‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﺮﻣﻮﺯ ‪ .3-7‬ﺭﻣﺰ ‪ EasyLanguage‬ﻟـ‬

‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﻓﻠﺘﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ‬

‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﻓﻠﺘﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ‬
‫‪2013‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ‪:‬‬

‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓ (‪،LPP)40‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ)‪(80‬؛‬
‫ﺁﺭﺱ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺹ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .3-7‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺏ‪،(0)1‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺝ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺝ‪،(0)2‬‬
‫ﺝ‪،(0)3‬‬
‫‪ilt)0(،‬‬
‫؛(‪ilt2)0‬‬

‫‪/‬ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺎﺭﺍً‬

‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫‪/‬‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪) 1‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪ / (1 - (HPPeriod (HPPeriod / 360*707.‬ﺟﻴﺐ‬

‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪(360*707.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‪(HPPeriod / 360*707.‬؛‬
‫*(‪( 2*)1 - alpha1(*HP]1[ - )1 - alpha1‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ‪*2 -‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪ [1‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪/ 2(*)1 - alpha1 / 2(*)[2‬‬
‫‪HP )1 - alpha1‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪HP]2[*(1‬؛‬
‫‪/‬ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﻌﻮﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ 3-3‬ﺃ‪1‬‬
‫‪ /‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ‪(LPPeriod‬؛‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ )‪3.14159*1.414-‬‬
‫‪ /‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ‪(LPPeriod‬؛‬ ‫‪*a1*2‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪180*1.414‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺏ‪1‬؛‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪-‬ﺃ‪*1‬ﺃ‪1‬؛‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺝ‪ - 2‬ﺝ‪3‬؛‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪[2‬؛*‪c3‬‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪c2*[1‬‬ ‫‪HP]1[( / 2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ= ‪)*c1‬ﺣﺼﺎﻥ‬

‫؛(ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ)‪lot1‬‬
‫;(ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪lot2)[2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺮ‪(0)6‬؛‬

‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ ،7.3‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻢ ﺿﺒﻂ‬

‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‪ L‬ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﻌﺴﻔﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺣﺪ ﻣﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ ‪ 40‬ﻭﻓﺘﺮﺓ ‪ H‬ﺃﻳﻀﺎً‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎﺗﻢ ﺿﺒﻄﻪ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﻌﺴﻔﻲ ﻋﻨﺪ ‪ 80‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪ .‬ﺗﻈُﻬﺮ ﻧﻈﺮﺓ ﻋﺎﺑﺮﺓ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒﻫﻮ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻣﻤﺘﺎﺯ ﻻ ﺗﺸﻮﺏ ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺍﺗﻪ ﺃﻱ ﺷﺎﺉﺒﺔ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻲ‪.‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺿﺒﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻠﻴﻦ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﺴﻬﻢ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕﺗﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻮﺭﺻﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺭﻣﺰ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‪ .‬ﻳﻘﺪﻡ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺇﺭﺷﺎﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻣﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓﻟﻠﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺣﺎﺟﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻧﺸﺎءﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺗﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻣﻴﻜﺎﻧﻴﻜﻲ ﺟﻴﺪ ﻣﻨﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺳﻌﺔ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺟﺰء‬
‫ﺭﻣﺰﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺴﺐ )‪ (AGC‬ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ‪ 5‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺷﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻤﻴﻦ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻳﻌﺘﺒﺮﻓﻠﺘﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍً ﺗﻘﻨﻴﺎً ﺭﺍﺉﻌﺎً‬ ‫ﻳﻮﺭﻱ‪7.3‬‬

‫‪SPECTRAL DILATION‬‬
‫ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﺑﻤﻨﺄﻯ ﻋﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻳﻈﻞ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺳﺘﻮﻛﺎﺳﺘﻴﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺪﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻱ‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺗﺠﺎﻩ ﺻﻌﻮﺩﻱ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻣﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻗﺼﻴﺮﺓﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺒﻊ ﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻭﺃﻃﻮﻝ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺃﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ ﺑﺎﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪ .7.4‬ﻳﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻲ‬

‫ﻳﻮﺭﻱ‪7.4‬ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ‪ emoval‬ﻛﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺩﺭﺍﻣﺎﺗﻴﻜﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻛﺎﺳﺘﻴﻜﻲ‬
 ‫ﺇﻥﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺳﺘﻮﻛﺎﺳﺘﻴﻚ ﺍﻟﻜﻼﺳﻴﻜﻲ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻛﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺃﺣﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ ﻷﻧﻪ ﻻ‬
‫ﻳﻮﺟﺪﺳﻮﻯ ﻣﺼﻄﻠﺢ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻂ ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻪ‪ .‬ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻲﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 7.4‬ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺳﺘﻮﻛﺎﺳﺘﻴﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺟﺎﻋﻲﻣﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ‪ 20‬ﻋﻤﻮﺩﺍً‪ .‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻫﻮ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻲ‪،‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺇﻻﺃﻧﻨﻲ ﺃﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡ ‪ SuperSmoother‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺑﺪﻻ ًﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ‪.‬ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻠﻲ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺎً ﻣﺘﻄﺎﺑﻘﺎً ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﺒﻘﻬﺎ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺴﻘﻒ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻘﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉﺿﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ‪ 10‬ﺃﻋﻤﺪﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﻋﻤﻮﺩﺍً‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺿﺢ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺳﺘﻮﻛﺎﺳﺘﻴﻚ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻐﻴﺮ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺇﺩﺭﺍﺝ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺴﻘﻒ‪.‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﻟﻦﻧﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺗﻔﺴﻴﺮ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺁﺧﺮ‪،‬‬

‫ﻣﺴﺒﻮﻗﺎًﺑﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺴﻘﻒ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻤﻸ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺐ‬
‫ﺑﻤﻔﺮﺩﻫﺎ‪.‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺳﺄﺗﺮﻙ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﻟﻠﻘﺎﺭﺉ ﻻﺳﺘﻜﺸﺎﻑ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺗﺤﺴﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔﺑﺒﺴﺎﻃﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺴﻘﻒ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺑﺪء ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻨﻘﻄﺔﻣﺮﺟﻌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﻛﻮﺩ ‪ EasyLanguage‬ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻹﻧﺸﺎء ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻲﺍﻟﺴﻔﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 7.4‬ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪.4-7‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔ ‪EasyLanguage Code to Compute .4-7‬‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺳﺘﻮﻛﺎﺳﺘﻴﻚ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻝ‬

‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺳﺘﻮﻛﺎﺳﺘﻴﻚ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻝ ‪ 2013‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ)‪(20‬؛‬

‫ﺁﺭﺱ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺹ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺃ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺏ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫‪،(0)1‬‬
‫‪،(0)2‬‬
‫‪،(0)3‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ(‪،C)0‬‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .4-7‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫ﺃﺩﻧﻰ(‪،C)0‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ)‪،(0‬‬

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‫ﺗﻮﻙ)‪،(0‬‬
‫;(‪MyStochastic)0‬‬

‫‪/‬ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺎﺭﺍً‬

‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻳﺔ )‪/ (1 - (48 / 360*707.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪)1‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‪ (48 / 360*707.‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‬

‫‪(48 / 360*707.‬؛‬
‫ﺇﻏﻼﻕ‪*2 -‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪HP )1 - alpha1 / 2(*)1 - alpha1 / 2(*)[1‬‬
‫‪ +‬ﺃﻏﻠﻖ]‪ - 1)*2 ([2‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪ - 1) - HP]1[*(1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪ - 1)*(1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪HP]2[*(1‬؛‬

‫‪//‬ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺳﻼﺳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪expvalue)-1.414*3.14159 / 10( 3-3‬‬

‫= ‪;a1‬‬

‫‪SPECTRAL DILATION‬‬
‫‪;(10 /‬‬ ‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‪2*a1*180*1.414‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺏ‪1‬؛‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪-‬ﺃ‪*1‬ﺃ‪1‬؛‬ ‫ﺝ‪3‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺝ‪ - 2‬ﺝ‪3‬؛‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪[2‬؛*‪c3‬‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪c2*[1‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪)*1‬ﺣﺼﺔ ﺣﺼﺎﻥ ﺣﺼﺎﻥ]‪2 / ([1‬‬ ‫ﻓﻠﺘﺮ‬

‫ﻓﻠﺘﺮ؛‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫ﻓﻠﺘﺮ؛‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻳﺴﺖﺳﻲ‬

‫‪0‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ‪ 1 -‬ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﺍﻟﻌﺪ‬

‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ[؛‬ ‫‪ HighestC‬ﺛﻢ ‪f Filt]count[ < HighestC‬‬
‫؛ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ؛[‪ LowestC = Filt]count‬ﺛﻢ ‪f Filt]count[ > LowestC‬‬

‫)ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ‪ -‬ﺃﺩﻧﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﺉﻮﻳﺔ( ‪) /‬ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﺉﻮﻳﺔ ‪ -‬ﺃﺩﻧﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﺉﻮﻳﺔ(؛‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ]‪( / 2 c2*[1‬ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ]‪c1*)[1‬‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻱﺳﺘﻮﻛﺎﺳﺘﻴﻚ‬

‫؛[‪c3*MyStochastic]2‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ‪(MyStochastic)1‬؛‬

‫ﻋﺮﻑّﻭﻳﻠﺰ ﻭﺍﻳﻠﺪﺭ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺑﺄﻧﻪ‬

‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﺳﻲ ‪1) / 100—100‬‬

‫ﺭ‪.‬ﺱ )ﻳﻐﻠﻖ‪) /‬ﻳﺨﺴﺮ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎ‬
‫ﻭ‪/‬ﺩ‬

‫ﺭ‪.‬ﺱﻫﻮ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭ ﻟﻠﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ‪،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ‬

‫ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ‬
 ‫‪،‬ﺇﻳﺠﺎﺑﻴﺔ‪.‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻤﺜﻞ ‪s‬ﺩﻫﻮ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺎً‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﻴﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻛﺮﻗﻢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎﻧﺴﺘﺒﺪﻝﻭ‪/‬ﺩﻝﺱﻭﺑﺒﺴﺎﻃﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪100‬‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ=‪− 100‬‬
‫‪+1‬ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻗﺮﺹﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ‬

‫‪100‬ﻗﺮﺹ ﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ‬
‫=‪− 100‬‬
‫ﻭﺣﺪﺓﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪+‬ﻗﺮﺹ ﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ‬

‫‪100‬ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪100+‬ﻗﺮﺹ ﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ‪100-‬ﻗﺮﺹ ﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ‬

‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫=‬
‫ﻭﺣﺪﺓﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪+‬ﻗﺮﺹ ﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ‬

‫‪100‬ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ=‬
‫ﻭﺣﺪﺓﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪+‬ﻗﺮﺹ ﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ‬

‫ﺑﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺉﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺇﻏﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﻟﺘﺎﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺇﻏﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻟﺘﺎ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺣﻈﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻳﺠﺐﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺳﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺣﻈﺔﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻨﺪﺉﺬ ٍﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺠﻴﺐ ﻧﻘﻲ‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻳﺔ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎً ﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ‬
‫ﺧﻼﻝﺟﺰء ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺬﺭﻭﺓ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‪ .f 100‬ﺧﻼﻝ ﺟﺰء ﺁﺧﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ‪ -‬ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ‪ -‬ﻟﻦ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺇﻏﻼﻕﺻﺎﻋﺪﺓ‪ .‬ﺧﻼﻝ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻫﺬﺍ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ f‬ﺻﻔﺮ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﺍ‪،‬‬
‫ﻣﻦﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺪﺃ‪ ،‬ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺳﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺃﻭ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ ،7.5‬ﺃﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻲ )ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء ﺃﻧﻨﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﺖ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢ‪ (SuperSmoother‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻲ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻣﻊ‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮ‪ RSI‬ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺴﺒﻘﻪ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﺴﻘﻴﻒ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪.‬ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ‪ RSI‬ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻝ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺑﻜﺜﻴﺮ ﻭﻟﺪﻳﻪ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻷﻥ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺗﻢ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﺟﺰء ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮ‪ RSI‬ﻭﻇﻴﻔﻴﺎً ﻫﻮ ﻧﻔﺲ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﺃﺣﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ‬
‫ﻓﻠﺘﺮﻷﻥﻭﺍﻟﻤﺼﻄﻠﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻂ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺠﺮﺩ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺷﺮﻳﻂﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻢﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﻛﻮﺩ ‪ EasyLanguage‬ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ‪ RSI‬ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻝ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪ .5-7‬ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﺑﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ‪ ،‬ﻣﺘﺒﻮﻋﺎً‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕﺍﻟﺮﻭﺗﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ‪ .RSI‬ﻟﻘﺪ ﺃﺿﻔﺖ ‪ Super-Smoother‬ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻳﺎً‬
‫ﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ‪ .MyRSI‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻗﻠﻴﻼ ًﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻋﺪﻡ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻳﺄﺗﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﻣﺎً‪.‬‬
Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
SPECTRAL DILATION
7.5‫ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬

:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ‬

:‫ﺁﺭﺱ‬
‫ ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‬.‫ ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‬2013 ©

‫(؛‬10)‫ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ‬

،(0)1‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‬

،(0)1‫ﺃ‬
،(0)1‫ﺏ‬

،(0)‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ‬

،(0)‫ﺩﻳﻨﻮﻡ‬
EasyLanguage Code to Compute .5-7 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔ‬

ّ‫ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻝ‬RSI ‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬

،(0)‫ﺹ‬

،(0)1
،(0)2
،(0)3

(0)‫ﻳﺨﺴﺮ‬
،Dn)0(‫ﻳﺨﺴﺮ‬
،(0)‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ‬

yRSI)0(‫؛‬
‫ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ‬SI ‫ﺗﻢﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ‬

‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺪﻝ‬

‫ﺃﻛﺜﺮﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ‬

‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫ﺃﻧﺎ‬

7
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .5-7‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫‪/‬ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺎﺭﺍً‬

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‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻳﺔ )‪/ (1 - (48 / 360*707.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪)1‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‪ (48 / 360*707.‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‬
‫‪(48 / 360*707.‬؛‬
‫ﺹ= )‪ - 1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪ - 1)*(2 / 1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪)*(2 / 1‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ‪*2 -‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪ [1‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪ - 1)*2 ([2‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪- 1) - HP]1[*(1‬‬
‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪ - 1)*(1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪HP]2[*(1‬؛‬

‫‪/‬ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺳﻼﺳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪expvalue)-1.414*3.14159 / 10( 3-3‬‬

‫= ‪;a1‬‬
‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪ ;(10 / 180*1.414‬ﺏ‪1‬؛*‪2*a1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫‪=2‬‬
‫‪-‬ﺃ‪*1‬ﺃ‪1‬؛‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪ - 1 =1‬ﺝ‪ - 2‬ﺝ‪3‬؛ ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ ([‪HP]1‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪[2‬؛*‪c3‬‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪c2*[1‬‬ ‫‪2/‬‬ ‫‪c1*)HP‬‬

‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﺇﻏﻼﻕ‬
‫ﻳﺨﺴﺮ‪Dn =0‬؛‬
‫ﺃﻭﻋﺪ ﻣﻦ ‪ 0‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ‪ 1 -‬ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻏﻼﻕ‬ ‫‪ [1‬ﺛﻢ ﻳﻐﻠﻖ‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ[ < ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ‬
‫‪;([1‬‬ ‫[ ‪ -‬ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ‪f‬‬
‫ﻳﻐﻠﻖ‪Dn‬‬ ‫‪ [1‬ﺛﻢ ﻳﻐﻠﻖ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ[ > ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ )ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ ]‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪ - [1‬ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ[(;‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫ﻳﻐﻠﻖ‪Dn‬؛‬ ‫ﺇﻏﻼﻕ‬ ‫ﺇﻳﻨﻮﻡ‬

‫‪ enom‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ)*‪c1‬‬
‫‪/‬‬ ‫؛[‪ClosesUp]1[ / Denom]1[( / 2 + c2*MyRSI]1[ 3*MyRSI]2‬‬
‫‪ MyRSI‬ﺛﻢ ‪ Denom]1[ >< 0‬ﻭ ‪f Denom >< 0‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ‪(MyRSI)1‬؛‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ‪(7.)2‬؛‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ‪(3.)6‬؛‬

‫‪ -‬ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺭﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻋﻀﺎء‬
‫‪.1‬ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﻫﻮ ﺟﺰء ﻣﺘﺄﺻﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻨﺸﺄ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﺴﻮﺭﻳﺔﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻃﻮﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺗﻨﻄﻮﻱﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺗﺠﺎﻫﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻓﻲ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺉﻌﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻘﺪﺃﺩﻯ ﺗﺠﺎﻫﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﻔﺴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺧﺎﻃﺉﺔ ﻭﻣﺠﻨﻮﻧﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻛﺜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪.‬‬
 ‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺗﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻭﺿﻊ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺳﻘﻒ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪.5‬ﻳﻨﺸﺊ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎً ﻗﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﻬﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺧﻼﻝﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﻣﺮﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺃﻭ‬

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‫ﺇﺟﺮﺍءﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪.6‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﺪ ﺫﺍﺗﻪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍً ﻓﻨﻴﺎً ﻧﺎﺟﺤﺎً‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﻴﺆﺩﻱﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻭﺗﻔﺴﻴﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺠﻌﻠﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ‪.‬‬

‫‪SPECTRAL DILATION‬‬
‫‪9‬‬
 ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪.‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‪.‬‬
‫‪ John Wiley & Sons, Inc.‬ﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2013‬ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ‪© 2013 John F. Ehlers.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞﺍﻟﺜﺎﻣﻦ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ‬
‫ﻗﺎﻝﺗﻮﻡ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺩﻭﺭﻱ‪" :‬ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎً ﻣﺎ ﺗﺘﻜﺮﺭ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎﺕ"‪.‬‬

‫ﻫﺬﺍﻓﺼﻞ ﻣﻬﻢ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺨﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﻴﻦ ﻷﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ‬

‫ﺗﻨﺘﺞﻋﺪﺩﺍً ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻔﻴﺪﺓ‪ .‬ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡﺑﺴﻴﻂ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺭﺑﻂ ﺃﺣﺪﺙ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻟﺮﻣﺰ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺑﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻟﻨﻔﺲﺭﻣﺰ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻣﻊ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﻣﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ‪ .lag‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻬﻢ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭﺩﻭﻥ ﺗﺸﻮﻳﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‪ .‬ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﺇﻟﻰ ﺑﻌﺾ‬
‫‪91‬‬ ‫ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻗﺒﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺧﺎﺹ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺧﻠﻔﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﺷﺘﻬﺮﺇﻳﺘﺮ ﺳﻮﻳﺮﻟﻴﻨﺞ ﺑﻔﺉﺔ ﻧﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ "ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺓ ﻟﻸﻫﺪﺍﻑ" ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺉﻴﺎً‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲﻃﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺍﺉﻞ ﺍﻟﺨﻤﺴﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﺮﻳﻦ ﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﻒ ﺃﺩﺍء‬
‫ﺃﻧﻈﻤﺔﺍﻟﺮﺍﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺒﻀﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﻢ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺳﻮﻳﺮﻟﻴﻨﺞ‪ .‬ﻻﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺃﺻﺪﺍءﺍﻟﺮﺍﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺗﺪﺓ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺻﺎﺧﺒﺔ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺷﺒﻪ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺃﺟﺰﺍءﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﺉﺮﺓ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺗﻐﻴﺮ ﻣﻈﻬﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﺉﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬
‫ﺇﺭﺳﺎﻝﺍﻟﺮﺍﺩﺍﺭ‪ .‬ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻬﺪﻑ‬
‫ﻭﺣﺠﻤﻪﻭﻃﻮﻝ ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺩﺍﺭ ﻭﻣﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻗﺪﺗﺤﺪﺙ ﻧﺒﻀﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻧﺒﻀﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﺑﻄﺄ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﺴﺢ ‪ROM‬‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰﻣﺴﺢ ﺍﻟﻬﻮﺍﺉﻲ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ‪ ،‬ﺃﺩﻯ ﻋﻤﻠﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬
‫ﻃﺎﺉﺮﺍﺕﺧﻔﻴﺔ ﺣﺪﻳﺜﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﻢ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺃﺻﺪﺍء ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺧﺒﺔ ﺑﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻬﺎ ﻋﺪﺩ‬
‫ﺛﺎﺑﺖﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺫﺍﻛﺮﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻘﺎً ﻟﻠﻤﺼﻄﻠﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻌﺘﺮﻑ ﺑﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻮﻥ‪،‬ﺗﻢ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﺪﺍء ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﺃﺳﻲ )‪.(EMA‬‬
‫ﻳﻘﻴﻢﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﻛﺎﻥ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻟـ ‪ EMA‬ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺎً ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻛﺎﻧﺖﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻌﻘﻴﺪﺍً ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ‪.EMAs‬‬
 ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝﻣﺘﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎً ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ‪ /1‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺕ‬
‫ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻴﺔﻣﻊ ﺫﺍﻛﺮﺓ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﻯ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﻤﺎﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻵﺭﺍء ﺣﻮﻝ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻘﻮﻝ‬
‫ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖﻧﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻳﺸﺒﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺳﻮﻳﺮﻟﻴﻨﺞ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺻﻄﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻳﻮﺿﺢﺍﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ 1-8‬ﺭﻣﺰ ‪ EasyLanguage‬ﻟﺘﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺻﻄﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪،‬ﻭﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 8.1‬ﻋﺮﺿﺎً ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻲ ﺃﺳﻔﻞ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺫﺍﺗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﺒﺪﻭ ﻣﻌﻘﻮﻟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺐﺇﻟﻰ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻻ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻱ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺻﻄﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻠﻲ‪.‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮﺓ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 8.1‬ﻫﻮ ﺑﺒﺴﺎﻃﺔ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻟﻸﺳﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﺻﻄﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬ﺭﺑﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻧﻲ ﺟﻌﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ ﺗﺒﺪﻭ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﻗﻠﻴﻼ ًﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﻨﺖ ﻗﺪ‬
‫ﺣﺮﺻﺖﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻴﺔ ﻧﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔ ‪ .1-8‬ﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﺗﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺑﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ‪EasyLanguage‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭﺍﻻﺻﻄﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﻛﺮﺓ‬

‫ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭﺍﺻﻄﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬
‫‪92‬‬
‫‪2013‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪(05.)1‬؛‬

‫ﺁﺭﺱ‪:‬‬
‫ﺹﻥ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﻍ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﻝﻭ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﻝ)‪(0‬؛‬

‫ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ)‪ - 1) + ((10‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪Cls]1[*(1‬؛‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪45)*1‬‬ ‫ﻛﻠﺲ‬

‫ﻛﻠﺲﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ)‪(125.‬؛‬ ‫ﻫﺮﻣﻮﻥﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺮﻱ‬

‫ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ)‪(125.‬؛ ‪Cls -‬‬ ‫ﻭ‬

‫؛(ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ )‪Cls )125. - (25.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻔﺘﻮﺡ‬

‫ﻫﻐﻪ؛‬ ‫‪ Open‬ﺛﻢ ‪Open f Open > Lw‬‬

‫ﻟﻮ؛‬ ‫ﺛﻢ‪f Open < Hgh‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ‪ ،"Opn، "O) 1‬ﺃﺯﺭﻕ‪(3 ،0 ،‬؛ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ‬

‫‪ ،"Hgh، "H)2‬ﺃﺯﺭﻕ‪(2 ،0 ،‬؛ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ ‪، "L) 3‬‬
‫‪ ،"Lw‬ﺃﺯﺭﻕ‪(2 ،0 ،‬؛ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ ‪،"Cls، "C) 4‬‬
‫ﺃﺯﺭﻕ‪(3 ،0،‬؛‬
 ‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻟﻄﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻴﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺫﺍﻛﺮﺓ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪8.1‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺯﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‬

‫‪AUTOCORRELATION‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﻤﺎﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺻﻄﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺅﻫﺎ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺃﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﻲﻟﻸﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻴﺔ ﺗﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻣﻌﻘﻮﻻً ﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻣﺎً ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺫﺍﻛﺮﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻻﻣﺘﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﻲ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻧﻪ‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎﺍﻛﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﻧﻈﺮﺓ ﺛﺎﻗﺒﺔ ﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺭﺑﻂ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫‪93‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦﺍﻟﺤﺪﻳﺚ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺰء ﺍﻟﺬﺍﻛﺮﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻰ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﺑﺮﺑﻂ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻴﺔ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎً ﺑﻤﻔﺮﺩﻫﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺴﻴﻜﻮﻥﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﺜﺎﻟﻴﺎً‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﺄﺧﺮﻧﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻓﻘﻂ‪ ،‬ﻓﺴﻴﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺫﺍﻛﺮﺓﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺉﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺯﻋﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ‪:‬‬
‫* ﺃﺝ‬
‫‪-α‬‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺧﺮﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ(‬

‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻭﻟﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﺳﻤﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﺣﺪﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻲ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻥ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻻ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ‬
‫ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁﺍﻟﺠﺰﺉﻲ ﻟﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻓﺤﺼﻬﺎ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﺟﻴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎﻟﻴﺔﺗﺒﻠﻎ ﻓﺘﺮﺗﻬﺎ ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪ .‬ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮﻱ‪ ،‬ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺍً‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﺜﺎﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
 ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔﺍﻟﻤﺮﺍﺩ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻗﻠﻴﻼ‪ ً.‬ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﻗﺪﺭﻩ ‪ 10‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺔ‪.‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻭﺏ ﺍﻹﻳﺠﺎﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻨﺎﻭﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻲﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻭﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻨﺎﻭﺏﺍﻹﻳﺠﺎﺑﻲ ﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻭﻫﻲﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻛﺲ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﺗﺘﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﻗﺪﺭﻩ ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻳﻜﻮﻥﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻳﺎً ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺐ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﺜﺎﻟﻴﺎً ﻣﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻱ‪ ،‬ﺗﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻛﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎً ﻣﺜﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻓﻮﺿﻮﻳﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺣﺪ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺘﺔ ﺃﻭ‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﻣﻮﺟﺎﺕﺍﻟﺠﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻤﺎﺕ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻤﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺼﺎﺉﺺﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﺸﻒ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﻡ ﻭﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﻧﻈﺮ‬
‫ﺗﺪﺍﻭﻝﻓﺮﻳﺪﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻘﺪﺓ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻭﺻﻒ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﺒﻴﻮﺗﺮ‬
‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍءﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ‪ 2-8‬ﻫﻲ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻧﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﻔﻬﻢ‪.‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﺮﻣﻮﺯ ‪ .2-8‬ﺭﻣﺰ ‪ EasyLanguage‬ﻟـ‬

‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ‬

‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ © ‪ 2013‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪.‬‬

‫‪94‬‬
‫ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ)‪(0‬؛‬

‫ﺁﺭﺱ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫;[‪Filt2= )1 - alpha1 / 2(*)Filt - Filt]1[( + )1 - alpha1(*Filt2]1‬‬

‫ﺹ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺃ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺏ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫‪،(0)1‬‬
‫‪،(0)2‬‬
‫‪،(0)3‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ)‪،(0‬‬
‫)‪(0‬‬
‫ﻥ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺱ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﻱ)‪،(0‬‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .2-8‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫ﺗﺄﺧﺮ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪ)‪،(0‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺱﺱ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺳﻲ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺳﻜﺲ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺳﻲ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺳﻜﺴﻲ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‪،(0)2‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‪(0)3‬؛‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺎﺕ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﺭ]‪،(0)[48‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺭﺍﺭﺍﻭ]‪،(0)[48‬‬

‫‪AUTOCORRELATION‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺭﺍ]‪(0)[48‬؛‬

‫‪/‬ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺎﺭﺍً‬

‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪)1‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪ + (48 / 360*707.‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪ / (1 - (48 / 360*707.‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪360*707.‬‬

‫‪(48 /‬؛‬

‫‪5‬‬ ‫*(ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪ - 1)*2*HP]1[ - )1 - 1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪( (1‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ‪*2 -‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪ [1‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪ - 1(*)[2‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪(*)2 / 1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪- 2 / 1‬‬
‫‪P )1‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪HP]2[*(1‬؛‬
‫‪/‬ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﻌﻮﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪1 3-3‬‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ )‪(10 / 3.14159*1.414-‬؛ ‪*a1*2‬‬
‫‪;(10 /‬‬ ‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪(180*1.414‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺏ‪1‬؛‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪-‬ﺃ‪*1‬ﺃ‪1‬؛‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺝ‪ - 2‬ﺝ‪3‬؛‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪[2‬؛*‪c3‬‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪c2*[1‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪)*1‬ﺣﺼﺔ ﺣﺼﺎﻥ ﺣﺼﺎﻥ]‪2 / ([1‬‬ ‫ﻓﻠﺘﺮ‬

‫‪/‬ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﻴﺮﺳﻮﻥ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 0‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬

‫‪/‬ﺿﺒﻂ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪M‬‬

‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ؛‬
‫ﺗﺄﺧﺮ؛‬ ‫‪0‬ﺛﻢ ﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ‪f‬‬
‫‪/‬ﺗﻬﻴﺉﺔ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ‪x‬‬
‫‪;0‬‬
‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﻱ‬
‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﺇﻛﺲﺇﻛﺲ ﺇﻛﺲ‬

‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﻳﻲ‬

‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬ ‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﻣﺜﻴﺮ‬

 (‫ )ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬.2-8 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ‬

‫ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﺮﺳﻮﻥ‬/

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‫ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬1 - ‫ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻡ‬0 = ‫ﺃﻭﺍﻟﻌﺪ‬
‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ[؛‬
‫ﻋﺪﺩ[؛‬ [‫ﻓﻠﺘﺮ]ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ‬
‫ﺱﺱ ﺱ؛‬ ‫ﺱ‬
‫ ﺹ؛‬+ ‫ﻱ= ﺹ‬
XX‫ﺳﻜﺲ ؛‬ ‫ﺇﻛﺲﺇﻛﺲ ﺇﻛﺲ‬

‫ﺱ*ﺹ؛‬ ‫ﺱ ﺹ ﻣﺜﻴﺮ‬
CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS

‫ﻱ*ﻱ؛‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻲ‬

‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ‬/

- Sx*Sy(/SquareRoot ‫ ﺛﻢ‬0 < (M*Syy - Sy*Sy)*(M*Sxx - Sx*Sx)‫ﻭ‬
‫ ﺳﻲ * ﺳﻲ((؛‬- ‫(*) ﻡ * ﺳﻴﻲ‬M*Sxx - Sx*Sx))Corr]Lag[ )M*Sxy
;r]Lag[ . 5*)Corr]Lag[ 1( ‫ ﺃﻭ‬1‫ ﻭ‬0 ‫ﻗﻢ ﺑﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻟﻴﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﻴﻦ‬/

‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫ﺭﺳﻢ ﺧﺮﻳﻄﺔ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻲ‬/

‫ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬48 ‫ ﺇﻟﻰ‬3‫ﻣﻦ‬
f Corr]Lag[ < .5 ‫ﻳﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺧﻀﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ‬// ‫ ﺛﻢ ﺍﺑﺪﺃ‬orr]Lag[ = 1 ‫ﺇﻟﻰﺍﻷﺻﻔﺮ‬ 96

255*)2 - 2*[‫ ;(ﺗﺼﺤﻴﺢ]ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ‬olor2 = 255‫؛‬

olor1
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬

0 ‫؛‬Corr]Lag[ 255 ‫ﻳﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺻﻔﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ‬// lse‫ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬

1‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‬
‫*ﺗﺼﺤﻴﺢ]ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ[؛‬255*2 2‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

;0 3‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‬
f Lag = 3 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot3)3, “S5”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 4 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot4)4, “S4”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 5 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot5)5, “S5”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 7 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot7)7, “S7”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 7 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot7)7, “S7”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag = 8 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot8)8, “S8”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

 (‫ )ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬.2-8 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ‬

،2 ‫ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬،1 ‫ )ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬S9"، RGB" ،9) 9 ‫ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً ﺭﻗﻢ‬9 َ‫ﻋﻠﻢ‬

‫(؛‬0،4،(3‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‬

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f Lag 10 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot10)10, “S10”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 11 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot11)11, “S11”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 12 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot12)12, “S12”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag = 13 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot13)13, “S13”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 14 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot14)14, “S14”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag = 15 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot15)15, “S15”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 16 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot16)16, “S16”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

AUTOCORRELATION
f Lag = 17 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot17)17, “S17”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 18 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot18)18, “S18”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 19 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot19)19, “S19”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

97
f Lag 20 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot20)20, “S20”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 21 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot21)21, “S21”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag = 22 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot22)22, “S22”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 23 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot23)23, “S23”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag = 24 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot24)24, “S24”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 25 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot25)25, “S25”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag = 26 ‫ ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‬Plot26)26، "S26"، RGB)3‫ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬،2‫ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬،1‫(ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬، 0،4(‫؛‬

f Lag 27 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot27)27, “S27”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 28 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot28)28, “S28”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 29 ‫ ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‬Plot29)29, “S29”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 30 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot30)30, “S30”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

 (‫ )ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬.2-8 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ‬

،2 ‫ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬،1 ‫ )ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬S31"، RGB" ،31) 31 ‫ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً ﺭﻗﻢ‬31 َ‫ﻋﻠﻢ‬

‫(؛‬0،4،(3‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‬

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f Lag = 32 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot32)32, “S32”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 33 ‫ ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‬Plot33)33, “S33”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 34 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot34)34, “S34”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 35 ‫ ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‬Plot35)35، "S35"، RGB)3‫ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬،2‫ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬،1‫(ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬، 0،4(‫؛‬

CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS

f Lag 36 ‫ ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‬Plot36)36، "S36"، RGB)3‫ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬،2‫ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬،1‫(ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬، 0،4(‫؛‬

f Lag = 37 ‫ ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‬Plot37)37, “S37”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 38 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot38)38, “S38”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag = 39 ‫ ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‬Plot39)39, “S39”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 40 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot40)40, “S40”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag = 41 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot41)41, “S41”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

98
f Lag 42 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot42)42, “S42”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 43 ‫ ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‬Plot43)43، "S43"، RGB)3‫ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬،2‫ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬،1‫(ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬، 0،4(‫؛‬

f Lag 44 ‫ ﺛﻢ‬Plot44)44, “S44”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag 45 45‫)ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‬45، "S45"، RGB)3‫ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬،2‫ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬،1‫(ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬،0،4(‫؛‬

f Lag = 46 ‫ ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‬Plot46)46، "S46"، RGB)3‫ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬،2‫ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬،1‫(ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬، 0،4(‫؛‬

f Lag 47 ‫ ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‬Plot47)47, “S47”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

f Lag = 48 ‫ ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‬Plot48)48, “S48”, RGB)Color1, Color2, olor3(,0,4(;

‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ‬

‫ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬،‫ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻴﺔ ﺻﻔﺮ‬.‫ﺇﺟﺮﺍءﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬
‫ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬،‫ ﺑﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ‬.‫ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻳﺎًﻟﻜﻞ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺪﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺗﺪﺍﺧﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ‬
 ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻖﻭﺩﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺇﻋﻼﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺗﺘﻢ ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻏﻮﺏ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻲﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ ﻣﻀﺒﻮﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪ .‬ﺗﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻷﻧﻬﺎ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺷﻬﺮﻳﻦﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺭﺑﻊ ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻤﺲ ﺩﻗﺎﺉﻖ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺟﺢ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻃﻮﻝ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﻔﻴﺪ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ .3.10‬ﺗﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ‪10‬‬
‫ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔﻟﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﻷﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻜﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺑﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻗﺼﺮﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ )ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ( ‪f 3-3،‬‬
‫‪ SuperSmoother‬ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻱ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪n‬‬
‫)ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ( ﻟﺪﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻴﻨﺘﺎﻥ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﻨﺖ ﺗﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫ﻭﺣﺼﻠﺖﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‪ .‬ﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺳﻬﻠﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﺘﺴﻘﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻟﻜﻦﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﻣﺘﺴﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﻟﻴﺲ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺑﻜﺜﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ‪ yclic‬ﺃﺑﻄﺄ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺛﻤﺎﻧﻲ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‪ .‬ﻻ‬
‫ﻳﻮﺟﺪﻭﻗﺖ ﻛﺎﻑ ٍﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺛﻢ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ‬

‫‪AUTOCORRELATION‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﻛﺘﺎﻑ ﺃﺑﻄﺄ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺛﻤﺎﻧﻲ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺮء ﺃﻥ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ‬
‫ﻓﻲﺍﻟﺘﻔﻜﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻳﻊ ﻷﻧﻪ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻟﻢ ﻣﺜﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺳﺘﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻛﻞ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ‪ -‬ﻧﺼﻒ‬
‫ﺃﻗﺼﺮﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻔﻴﺪﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪،‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫ﻳﺸﻜﻞﺍﻟﺠﻤﻊ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻭ‪ SuperSmoother‬ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺳﻘﻒ‬
‫ﻳﻤﺮﺭﻓﻘﻂ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻴﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪.‬‬

‫ﻳﺘﻢﺇﻧﺠﺎﺯ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﻴﺮﺳﻮﻥ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 1‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ ،48‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ‬

‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻫﻮ ﺩﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ‬
‫ﻫﻮﺩﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺣﻠﻘﺔ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻗﻴﻢ‪,‬ﻱ‪،‬‬
‫ﺱ*‪ ,‬ﺱ ‪,‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺟﻤﻊ ‪ * nd‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻜﻮﻥﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻳﺎً ﻟﻠﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺭﺑﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔﻟﻠﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﻭﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻳﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦ‪ 1-‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ‪ ،1‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻪ ﻟﻴﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 0‬ﻭ‪ 1‬ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺠﺐ ﻋﺮﺿﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺧﺮﻳﻄﺔﺣﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻔﻬﻢ ﻛﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻮﺿﻊ‬
‫ﺯﻣﻨﻲﻟﻠﻤﺤﻮﺭ ﺍﻷﻓﻘﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻹﺯﺍﺣﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﺳﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ ag‬ﻣﻦ ‪ 3‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ .48‬ﻳﺘﻢ‬
‫ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻟﻮﻥ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ 1‬ﺃﺣﻤﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ 2‬ﺃﺧﻀﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻼﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ ،1‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﺧﻀﺮ ﻓﻘﻂ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬
‫‪،0.5‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻧﻴﻦ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﻀﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﻬﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺇﻧﺸﺎءﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﺻﻔﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺒﻬﻤﺎ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺻﻔﺮﺍً‪،‬‬
‫ﻳﻜﻮﻥﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﺣﻤﺮ ﻓﻘﻂ‪ .‬ﺑﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺽ "ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻭﺭ"‬
 ‫ﺗﻢﺇﻧﺸﺎء ‪ ،s‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺸﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﺧﻀﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺸﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﺻﻔﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻄﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺻﺮﻑ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺟﻨﺮﺍﻝ )ﺍﻟﺮﻣﺰ‬
‫‪ (DG‬ﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﻋﺎﻡ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ .8.2‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺠﺰء ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻠﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫ﻛﻞﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺱ ﻟﻠﺴﻌﺮ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺸﻴﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺴﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﺧﻀﺮ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺸﻴﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁﺟﻴﺪ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻋﻤﻮﺩﻳﺎً‬
‫ﻓﻲﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺮﺽ ﻳﺸﺒﻪ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺎﺑﺔ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻲﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺍﻷﻃﻮﻝ‪ .‬ﺗﻤﻴﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺐ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﻋﻄﺎء‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﺎﺉﻞﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﺮﺍﺑﻄﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﻜﺴﻲ ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮﺣﻮﻝ ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً ﺑﺴﺒﺐ "ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺎﺑﺔ" ﺍﻟﺤﻤﺮﺍء ﻓﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﻣﺘﺮﺍﺑﻄﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺟﻴﺪ ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 30‬ﻭ‪ 40‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً ﺧﻼﻝ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪.‬‬

‫ﻧﻈﺮﺍًﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻳﻤﻴﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺧﻔﺎء ﻣﻌﻨﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻳﺐ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻣﻔﻴﺪﺍً ﻟﻠﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﺴﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻴﺮ ﻟﻼﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺭﺅﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺒﻠﻎ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻗﻴﻢ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﺛﻼﺛﺔﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﻧﻰ ﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪.‬ﻧﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻴﺔ ‪ 0‬ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‪ .3‬ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪.8.3‬‬ ‫‪00‬‬
‫ﺑﺼﺮﻑﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻈﻬﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺪﺭ‪ ،‬ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺧﺎﺻﻴﺘﺎﻥ ﻣﻤﻴﺰﺗﺎﻥ ﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻷﺩﻧﻰ‪ .‬ﺃﻭﻻ‪ ً،‬ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺱ ﺣﺎﺩ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺧﻀﺮ ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺧﻀﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻮﻗﻴﺖ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ‬

‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﻊ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﺍﺭ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪8.2‬‬

‫ﻣﻼﻙﻻﺝ‬
 ‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﻊ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﺤﻮ ﻗﺪﺭﻫﺎ ‪... 30‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪8.3‬‬

‫‪AUTOCORRELATION‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ‪ .‬ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎً‪ ،‬ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻤُﻚ‬
‫‪.‬ﻋﺪﺩﺍﻷﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻭﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﺳﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻛﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﻮﻗﺖ ‪f‬‬

‫ﻳﺼﺒﺢﻣﻌﻨﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻭﺿﻮﺣﺎً ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﺟﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺒﻠﻎﻓﺘﺮﺗﻬﺎ ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ .8.4‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﺤﺪﺙ ﺍﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ‬
‫‪01‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺓﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺧﻀﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺒﻂ‬
‫ﻣﻦﻗﻤﻢ ﻭﻗﻴﻌﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻳﻈُﻬﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺤﺺ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﻴﻖ ﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮﺑﻴﻦ ﻗﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻂ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ ﻭﻗﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻂ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻮﻗﻪ )ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﺷﺮﻃﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﻀﺮﺍءﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﻨﺖ ﺗﻔﻀﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ( ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻫﻮ‬

‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 20‬ﺑﺎﺭﺍً‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪8.4‬‬

 ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺒﻂ‪ 20‬ﺑﺎﺭﺍً‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺑﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ‪.‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻣﺨﻄﻂﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ‬
‫ﻳﺒﺪﺃﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﺑﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺛﻼﺛﺔﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﻓﻮﺭﻳﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ )‪ (DFT‬ﻟﻨﺘﺎﺉﺞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ‬
‫ﻫﺬﺍﺍﻟﻨﻬﺞ ﺑﺄﺭﺑﻊ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻣﻤﻴﺰﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪.1‬ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺳﺮﻳﻌﺔ‪.‬ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺸﻜﻞ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻣﻦﺑﺪﺍﻳﺘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻛﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺰﻣﻦ‪.‬ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ‬
‫ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺎً ﺇﺫﺍ ﻟﻢ ﺗﻜﻦ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺃﺛﻨﺎء‬
‫ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻩ‪.‬ﻋﺎﻟﺠﺖ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﺯﻣﻨﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻗﺪﻡﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻭﺍﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪.‬ﻳﻘﺘﺼﺮ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 1-‬ﻭ‪ ne+‬ﺑﻐﺾ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻋﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻠﻐﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺟﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‬
‫ﻟﺴﻌﺔﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻛﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫‪02‬‬

‫‪.‬ﺇﻥ ﺩﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻱ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﻄﺒﻴﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻱ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ‬
‫ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﻭﺻﻒ ﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﺑﺎﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻛﻮﺩ ‪EasyLanguage‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔ ‪ .3-8‬ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﺑﻨﻔﺲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔ ‪ .2-8‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺇﻋﻼﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﻧﺠﺎﺯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺷﻴﺢﺍﻟﻤﺴﺒﻖ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ‪ 48‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً ﻳﺘﺒﻌﻪ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ‬
‫‪ SuperSmoother‬ﻣﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ .3-3‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﻧﺠﺎﺯ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻧﻬﺞ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﻴﺮﺳﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺭﺳﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺇﻧﺠﺎﺯ ‪ DFT‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺭﺑﻂ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻢ ﻣﻊ‬
‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻭﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻛﻞﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﺜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺄﻟﻮﻓﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﺳﻴﻦ‪x‬‬ ‫ﺃﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻛﺲ‬ ‫ﺃ‬

‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﺇﻟﻰ‬

‫ﺷﺮﻳﻂ‪،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ‪ EMA‬ﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻞ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‪.‬‬
 ‫ﻓﻲﻛﺘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺐ)‪ (AGC‬ﻟﻠﻬﺠﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻳﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﻲء ﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺑﻤﺮﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪ .‬ﺗﻢ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻲﺍﻟﻜﺴﺐ )‪ (AGC‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ‪ .5‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻓﺄﺱ‪،‬ﺛﻢ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻣﺎﻛﺲ ﺑﺎﻭﺭﻳﺘﻢ ﺿﺒﻄﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ‬
‫ﺫﻟﻚ‪،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦﻓﺄﺱ‪،‬ﺛﻢﻓﺄﺱﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺨﻔﺾ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ‪ 0.991‬ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻛﺘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺧﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﻞ )‪ .(CG‬ﺧﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﻞ )‪(CG‬‬
‫ﻳﻘﻴﺲﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻷﺟﺴﺎﻡ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺑﻌﺎﺩ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺟﻤﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ‪.‬ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢﻭﺟﻤﻊ * ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻮﺭﺣﻴﺚ ﻛﻞ ﺷﻲء‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮﻳﻌﻄﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺿﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻫﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ‪.‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﺤﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺨﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﺮﻛﺰ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ‪.‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ ﻫﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺗﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻣﻊ‬

‫‪AUTOCORRELATION‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖﻭﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﻟﻀﺒﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺗﻠﻘﺎﺉﻴﺎً ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﻭﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ )‪ (CCI‬ﻭﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ )‪(SI‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ ﻭﻣﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 0‬ﻭ‪ 1‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻌﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻟﻮﺍﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫‪03‬‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻮﺍﻥ‪.‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ ،0.5‬ﺗﺘﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﻟﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﻀﺮ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ‬
‫ﻳﻜﻮﻥﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﺻﻔﺮ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ‪ 1‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ‪ .0.5‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ ،0.5‬ﻳﻨﺨﻔﺾ‬
‫ﺗﺸﺒﻊﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ﺃﺳﻮﺩﺍً ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ‬
‫‪.0‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ﻟﻠﻄﻴﻒ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﻗﻤﺖ ﺑﺘﻀﻤﻴﻦ ﻛﺘﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻳﺔﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔ )ﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﻷﻗﻮﺍﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺮﺟﺔ(‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﺩﻗﺔ ﺑﺼﺮﻳﺔ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﻮﺓ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﺗﻌﺴﻔﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﺮﻣﻮﺯ ‪ .3-8‬ﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ‬

‫ﻛﻮﺩﺍﻟﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻠﺔ‬

‫ﻣﺨﻄﻂﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ‬
‫‪2013‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‬

‫ﺁﺭﺱ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ)‪،(3‬‬
‫)‪(0‬‬
‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬ ‫ﻥ)‪،(0‬‬
 (‫ )ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬.3-8 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ‬

(0)
،(0)‫ﻱ‬

Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
،(0)1‫ﻟﻔﺎ‬
،(0)‫ﺹ‬
،(0)1
،(0)1‫ﺏ‬
،(0)1‫ﺝ‬
،(0)2‫ﺝ‬
،(0)3‫ﺝ‬
CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS

ilt)0(،
،(0)‫ﺗﺄﺧﺮ‬
،(0)‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪ‬
،(0)‫ﺱﺱ‬

،(0)‫ﺳﻲ‬
،(0)‫ﺳﻜﺲ‬
،(0)‫ﺳﻲ‬
،(0)‫ﺳﻜﺴﻲ‬
،(0)‫ﺇﺭﻳﻮﺩ‬
،(0)‫ﺱ‬
،(0)‫ﺳﺒﻚ‬
04
axPwr)0(،
،(0)‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ‬
،(0)1‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‬
،(0)2‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‬
‫(؛‬0)3‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‬

:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺎﺕ‬
،(0)[48]‫ﺃﻭﺭ‬
osinePart]48[)0(،
SinePart]48[)0(،
،(0)[48]‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻉﺍﻟﻤﺮﺑﻊ‬

،(0)[2 ،48]‫ﺭ‬
wr]48[)0(‫؛‬

ً‫ ﺑﺎﺭﺍ‬48 ‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ‬/

/ (1 - (48 / 360*707.) ‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻳﺔ‬ )‫( ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬48 / 360*707.)‫= )ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬1‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‬

‫(؛‬48 / 360*707.
/ 2(*)1 - alpha1 / 2(*)[2]‫[ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ‬1]‫*ﺇﻏﻼﻕ‬2 - ‫ (ﺇﻏﻼﻕ‬2*)1 - alpha1(*HP]1[ - )1 - alpha1(*
HP )1 - alpha1
‫؛‬HP]2[*(1‫ ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‬-1
3-3 ‫ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﻌﻮﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬/
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .3-8‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫‪;(10 /‬‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ )‪3.14159*1.414-‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫‪;(10 /‬‬ ‫‪*a1*2‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪180*1.414‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺏ‪1‬؛‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪-‬ﺃ‪*1‬ﺃ‪1‬؛‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺝ‪ - 2‬ﺝ‪3‬؛‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪[2‬؛*‪c3‬‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪c2*[1‬‬ ‫‪HP]1[( / 2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ= ‪)*c1‬ﺣﺼﺎﻥ‬

‫‪/‬ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﻴﺮﺳﻮﻥ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ = ‪ 0‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬

‫‪/‬ﺿﺒﻂ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪M‬‬

‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ؛‬
‫ﺗﺄﺧﺮ؛‬ ‫‪0‬ﺛﻢ ﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ‪f‬‬
‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﺱ‬
‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﺳﻲ‬

‫‪AUTOCORRELATION‬‬
‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﺇﻛﺲﺇﻛﺲ ﺇﻛﺲ‬

‫ﺱﺹ = ‪0‬؛‬
‫ﺟﻨﺴﻲ‪0‬؛‬
‫‪0‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﻡ ‪ 1 -‬ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﺍﻟﻌﺪ‬
‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ[؛‬
‫ﻋﺪﺩ[؛‬ ‫ﻓﻠﺘﺮ]ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ[‬ ‫ﻱ‬
‫‪05‬‬ ‫ﺱ= ﺱ ‪ +‬ﺱ؛‬
‫ﻱ؛‬ ‫ﺳﻲﺳﻲ‬
‫؛‪XX‬‬ ‫ﺳﻜﺲ= ‪xx‬‬
‫ﺱ*ﺹ؛‬ ‫ﻣﺜﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﺜﻴﺮ‬
‫ﻱ*ﻱ؛‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻲ‬ ‫ﻳﻲ‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫ﻭ)‪ 0 < (M*Syy - Sy*Sy)*(M*Sxx - Sx*Sx‬ﺛﻢ ‪- Sx*Sy(/SquareRoot‬‬

‫‪ )*(M*Sxx - Sx*Sx))Corr]Lag[ )M*Sxy‬ﻡ * ﺳﻴﻲ ‪ -‬ﺳﻲ * ﺳﻲ((؛‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫‪10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬

‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﺟﺰءﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[‬
‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺰءﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻰ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[‬
‫ﺃﻭﻥ ‪ 3‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬
‫‪+‬‬ ‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[‬ ‫ﺟﺰءﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[‬
‫‪ /‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ(؛‬ ‫‪*N‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‪orr]N[*370‬‬
‫‪Corr]N[*sine)370*N /‬‬ ‫;(ﻓﺘﺮﺓ [ﻓﺘﺮﺓ]‪[ SinePart‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ]‪SinePart‬‬

‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[*ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻉﺍﻟﻤﺮﺑﻊ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[‬

‫؛[ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪[*SinePart‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪SinePart‬‬

‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .3-8‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫‪10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬

‫ﺭ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ = [2 ،‬ﺭ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪[1 ،‬؛‬

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‫‪*2.‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻣﺮﺑﻊ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[*ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻣﺮﺑﻊ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[ ‪[2‬؛‬ ‫ﺭ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪[1‬‬
‫‪،‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪. 8*R‬‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫‪/‬ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ ‪. 995*MaxPwr‬‬

‫‪MaxPwr‬؛‬
‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ= ‪ 10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺭ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪[1‬؛‬ ‫؛‪ nd‬ﺍﻟﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻠﻘﻮﺓ ﺛﻢ ﺍﻟﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻠﻘﻮﺓ < [ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪،‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫‪f R]1‬‬
‫‪3‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺃﻗﺼﻰﻃﺎﻗﺔ؛ ‪[ /‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪R]1 ،‬‬ ‫[ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪wr‬‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫‪/‬ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﻞ ﻟﻠﻄﻴﻒ ‪px‬‬

‫‪;0‬‬
‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﺹ‬
‫‪10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫< ‪ 5 .‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺑﺪﺃ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ*‪]Pwr‬‬ ‫[ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪f Pwr‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[؛‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻜﺴﻞﺇﺱ ﺑﻲ ﺇﻛﺲ‬ ‫‪06‬‬
‫ﻗﻮﺓ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[؛‬ ‫ﺱ= ﺱ‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫‪ DominantCycle‬ﺛﻢ‬
‫ﺱ ‪ /‬ﺱ؛‬ ‫ﺱ‬
‫‪lot2)DominantCycle,‬‬ ‫;(‪“DC”, RGB)0, 0, 255(, 0, 2‬‬
‫‪f Sp ><0‬‬

‫‪/‬ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺩﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺭﻓﻊ ‪ NormPwr‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﻮﺓ ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ )ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻱ(‬

‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ= ‪ 10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬

‫؛‪ nd‬؛(‪[، 2‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪ )Pwr‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ [ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪wr‬‬

‫‪/‬ﺭﺳﻢ ﻛﺨﺮﻳﻄﺔ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ‪0‬‬

‫‪Color3‬؛‬
‫‪10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺛﻢﺍﺑﺪﺃ ‪f Pwr]Period[ < .5‬‬
‫ﻟﻮﻥ‪2551‬؛‬
‫؛(‪[ - 1‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪olor2 = 255*)2*Pwr‬‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .3-8‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ‪lse‬‬
‫‪*255*2‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[؛‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‪1‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‪2‬‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫‪3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪)Plot3]0[)3، "S5"، RGB‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬

‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‪(0،4،(3‬؛‬
‫؛(‪(، 4 ،0‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪)4، "S4"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 4‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]4‬‬

‫؛(‪(، 4 ،0‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪)5، "S5"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 5‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]5‬‬

‫؛(‪(، 4 ،0‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪)6، "S6"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 6‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]6‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ f = 7‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪)S7"، RGB" ،7)[0]7‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪(4 ،0 ،(3‬؛‬

‫‪AUTOCORRELATION‬‬
‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)8، "S8"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 8‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]8‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ f = 9‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪)S9"، RGB" ،9)[0]9‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪(4 ،0 ،(3‬؛‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)10، "S10"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 10‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]10‬‬

‫‪107‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ f = 11‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪)S11"، RGB" ،11)[0]11‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪(4 ،0 ،(3‬؛‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ 12‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪)S12"، RGB" ،12)[0]12‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪(0،4،(3‬؛‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ 13‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪)S13"، RGB" ،13)[0]13‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪(0،4،(3‬؛‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)14، "S14"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 14‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]14‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)15، "S15"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 15‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]15‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ f = 16‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪)S16"، RGB" ،16)[0]16‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪(4 ،0 ،(3‬؛‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)17، "S17"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 17‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]17‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ f = 18‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪)S18"، RGB" ،18)[0]18‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪(4 ،0 ،(3‬؛‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)19، "S19"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 19‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]19‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ f = 20‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ [‪)20, “S20”, RGB)Plot20]0‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪(4 ،0 ،(3‬؛‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)21، "S21"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 21‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]21‬‬

‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .3-8‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫‪22‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً‪)S22"، RGB" ،22)[0]22‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪،1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪(0،4،(3‬؛‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)23، "S23"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 23‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]23‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)24، "S24"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 24‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]24‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)25، "S25"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 25‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪f [0]25‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ f = 26‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪)S26"، RGB" ،26)[0]26‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪(4 ،0 ،(3‬؛‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)27، "S27"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 27‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]27‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ f = 28‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪)S28"، RGB" ،28)[0]28‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪(4 ،0 ،(3‬؛‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ 29‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪)S29"، RGB" ،29)[0]29‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪(0،4،(3‬؛‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ f = 30‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ [‪)30, “S30”, RGB)Plot30]0‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪(0،4،(3‬؛‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)31، "S31"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 31‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]31‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)32، "S32"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 32‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]32‬‬

‫‪08‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ 33‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪)S33"، RGB" ،33)[0]33‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪(0،4،(3‬؛‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)34، "S34"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 34‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]34‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ f = 35‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪)S35"، RGB" ،35)[0]35‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪(0،4،(3‬؛‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)36، "S36"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 36‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]36‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ f = 37‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪)S37"، RGB" ،37)[0]37‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪(4 ،0 ،(3‬؛‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ 38‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪)S38"، RGB" ،38)[0]38‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪(0،4،(3‬؛‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ f = 39‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪)S39"، RGB" ،39)[0]39‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪(4 ،0 ،(3‬؛‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)40، "S40"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 40‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪f [0]40‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)41، "S41"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 41‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]41‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)42، "S42"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 42‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]42‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)43، "S43"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 43‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]43‬‬

 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .3-8‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫‪44‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً‪)S44"، RGB" ،44)[0]44‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪،1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪(0،4،(3‬؛‬

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‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)45، "S45"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 45‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪f [0]45‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)46، "S46"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 46‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]46‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،4‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)47، "S47"، RGB)3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 47‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f [0]47‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ f = 48‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪)S48"، RGB" ،48)[0]48‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪(0،4،(3‬؛‬

‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﻟﺴﻬﻢ ‪) Dollar General‬‬

‫‪AUTOCORRELATION‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﻣﺰ‪ (DG‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﺍﺭ ﻋﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ .8.5‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒﻓﻲ ﻣﺰﺍﻣﻨﺔ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻓﻮﻗﻪ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﺳﻲ‬
‫ﻫﻮﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺷﺮﻃﺔ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺎﺱ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﺮﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒﻗﺎﺑﻼ ًﻟﻠﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﺳﺒﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥﻗﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻠﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺻﻔﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺩ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻟﻮ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻳﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻦ‬
‫‪09‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺑﻴﺾﺍﻟﺴﺎﺧﻦ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺧﻦ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺿﺢ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺮﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒﺃﻥ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺗﺘﻼﺷﻰ ‪ -‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺗﺄﺗﻲ ﻭﺗﺬﻫﺐ ﻭﺗﻐﻴﺮ ﺩﻭﺭﺗﻬﺎ ﺑﻤﺮﻭﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪.‬ﻭﺍﻟﺨﻂ ﺍﻷﺯﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻤﺮ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻋﺒﺮ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺃﻗﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ‬
‫ﻫﻮﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺨﻄﻂﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺿﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺠﻐﺮﺍﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪8.5‬‬

 ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪ 8.5‬ﻫﻮ ﺗﻤﺜﻴﻞ ﺯﻣﻨﻲ ﺗﺮﺩﺩﻱ )‪ (TF‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺴﻬﻮﻟﺔﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻔﺴﻴﺮ ﺍﻷﻟﻮﺍﻥ ﻛﻘﻮﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﻳﻤﻴﺔﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺘﻮﺭ ﻭﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﻼﻝ ﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻧﺘﺎﺉﺞ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺎﺗﻬﻢ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺃﻃﻴﺎﻑ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺑﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺫﻟﻚﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﻣﺘﺎﺣﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺴﻬﻮﻟﺔﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻷﻫﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺃﻱ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺘﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﻣﻌﺎﻧﻲﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﺃﺣﺪﺍﻟﺨﺼﺎﺉﺺ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻴﺰﺓ ﻟﻠﺸﻜﻠﻴﻦ ‪ 8.3‬ﻭ‪ 8.4‬ﻫﻮ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ‬

‫ﻳﺘﺤﻮﻝﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺧﻀﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺧﻀﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﻗﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻌﺮ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﻣﺎ ﻧﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻫﻮ ﺟﻤﻊ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺪﺓ ﻟﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲﻋﺒﺮ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻛﺒﻴﺮﺍً‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ‬
‫ﻧﻘﻄﺔﺗﺤﻮﻝ‪ .‬ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﺭﻣﺰ ‪ EasyLanguage‬ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﺮﻣﻮﺯ ‪ .4-8‬ﺍﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﺔ ﻟﻠﻐﺎﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻌﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻮﻓﻴﺮ ‪ LPLength‬ﻛﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺮﻏﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﺗﻮﻓﻴﺮ ﻣﻌﻠﻤﺔ ‪ AvgLength‬ﻛﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻷﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫ﺃﻳﻀﺎًﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﻮﺧﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺬﺭ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻫﺬﺍﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻞ ﻷﻥ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻳﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻣﻊ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫‪ .AvgLength‬ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺟﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺿﺒﻂ ﻣﻌﻠﻤﺔ ‪ AvgLength‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪.3‬‬

‫ﻳﺘﻢﺃﻳﻀﺎً ﺗﻮﻓﻴﺮ ﻣﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺨﻂ ﺍﻷﻓﻘﻲ ﻛﻤﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻭﻧﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻃﻔﻴﻒ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﺮﻣﻮﺯ ‪ .4-8‬ﺭﻣﺰ ‪ EasyLanguage‬ﻟـ‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ © ‪2013‬‬

‫ﺟﻮﻥﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ‪:‬‬
‫ﻃﻮﻝ)‪،(48‬‬
 (‫ )ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬.4-8 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ‬

،LPL)10( ‫ﻃﻮﻝ‬
‫(؛‬3)‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ‬

Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
:‫ﺁﺭﺱ‬
،(0)1‫ﻟﻔﺎ‬
،(0)‫ﺹ‬
،(0)1
،(0)1‫ﺏ‬
،(0)1‫ﺝ‬
،(0)2‫ﺝ‬
،(0)3‫ﺝ‬
ilt)0(،
(0)
،(0)‫ﻥ‬

AUTOCORRELATION
(0)
،(0)‫ﻱ‬
،(0)‫ﺗﺄﺧﺮ‬
،(0)‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪ‬
،(0)‫ﺱﺱ‬

11 ،(0)‫ﺳﻲ‬
،(0)‫ﺳﻜﺲ‬
،(0)‫ﺳﻲ‬
،(0)‫ﺳﻜﺴﻲ‬
،(0)‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉﺍﻟﺪﻟﺘﺎ‬
‫(؛‬0)‫ﻋﻜﺲ‬

:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺎﺕ‬

‫(؛‬0)[2 ،48]‫ﺃﻭﺭ‬

ً‫ ﺑﺎﺭﺍ‬48 ‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ‬/

360*707.) ‫ ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬/ (1 - (48 / 360*707.) ‫ ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬+ (48 / 360*707.) ‫)ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬1‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‬
‫(؛‬48 /
/ 2(*)1 - alpha1 / 2(*)[2]‫[ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ‬1]‫*ﺇﻏﻼﻕ‬2 - ‫ (ﺇﻏﻼﻕ‬2*)1 - alpha1(*HP]1[ - )1 - alpha1(*
HP )1 - alpha1
‫؛‬HP]2[*(1‫ ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‬-1
1 3-3 ‫ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﻌﻮﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬/
‫ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﺴﺮﻯ(؛‬/ 3.14159*1.414-) ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ‬
‫؛‬1‫ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻨﻰ(؛ ﺏ‬/ 180*1.414) ‫*ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬a1*2 1
2
‫؛‬1‫*ﺃ‬1‫ﺃ‬- 3
‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .4-8‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫‪ -1‬ﺝ‪ - 2‬ﺝ‪3‬؛‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪[2‬؛*‪c3‬‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪c2*[1‬‬ ‫‪HP]1[( / 2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺘﺮ= ‪)*c1‬ﺣﺼﺎﻥ‬

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‫‪/‬ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﻴﺮﺳﻮﻥ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 3‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪48‬‬
‫ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬
‫‪ M‬ﺍﺿﺒﻂ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ‪Corr]Lag, 1[; /‬‬
‫= [‪orr]Lag, 2‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ؛‬
‫ﺗﺄﺧﺮ؛‬ ‫‪0‬ﺛﻢ ﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ‪f‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫‪/‬ﺗﻬﻴﺉﺔ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ‪Sx‬‬

‫‪;0‬‬
‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﻱ‬
‫ﺳﻜﺲ ‪;0‬‬
‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﻳﻲ‬
‫ﺱﺹ = ‪0‬؛‬
‫‪ /‬ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﺮﺳﻮﻥ‬

‫ﺃﻭﺍﻟﻌﺪ = ‪ 0‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﻡ ‪ 1 -‬ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ[؛‬
‫ﻋﺪﺩ[؛‬ ‫ﻓﻠﺘﺮ]ﺗﺄﺧﻴﺮ[‬
‫‪12‬‬
‫ﺱﺱ ﺱ؛‬ ‫ﺱ‬
‫ﻱ= ﺹ ‪ +‬ﺹ؛‬
‫ﺳﻜﺲ ﺳﻜﺲ ؛‪XX‬‬
‫ﺱ*ﺹ؛‬ ‫ﺱ ﺹ ﻣﺜﻴﺮ‬
‫ﻱ*ﻱ؛‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻲ‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫‪/‬ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ‬

‫;((ﻡ*ﺳﻲ ‪ -‬ﺳﻲ*ﺳﻲ)* (‪Corr]Lag, 1[ )M*Sxy - Sx*Sy(/SquareRoot))M*Sxx - Sx*Sx‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ‪f )M*Sxx - Sx*Sx(*)M*Syy - Sy*Sy( < 0‬‬

‫‪/‬ﻗﻢ ﺑﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻟﻴﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 0‬ﻭ‪ 1‬ﺃﻭ (‪;r]Lag, 1[ . 5*)Corr]Lag, 1[ 1‬‬

‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﺩﻟﺘﺎﺱ‬
‫‪3‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﺗﺄﺧﺮ‬

‫ﺛﻢﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺩﻟﺘﺎ ﺩﻟﺘﺎ ‪1‬؛ (‪ Corr]Lag, 2[ < .5‬ﻭ ‪ Corr]Lag, 1[ > .5‬ﺃﻭ (‪ Corr]Lag, 2[ > .5‬ﻭ ‪.5‬‬
‫< [‪f )Corr]Lag, 1‬‬

‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .4-8‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﻋﻜﺲ‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉﺩﻟﺘﺎ < ‪ 24‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎﺱ = ‪1‬؛ ‪f‬‬

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‫؛(ﻋﻜﺲ)‪lot1‬‬

‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 8.6‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬

‫ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻴﻦﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺘﻴﻦ ﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ ‪ .LPLength‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻲ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ‪ ،LPLength 20‬ﻭﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺘﻔﻆ ﺑﻤﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏﺍﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻠﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ‪10‬‬
‫‪ ،LPLength‬ﻭﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ ﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﺎً ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺘﻔﻆ‬
‫ﺑﻤﺮﺍﻛﺰﻣﻦ ﺃﻳﺎﻡ ﻗﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺳﺒﻮﻉ‪.‬‬

‫‪AUTOCORRELATION‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺭﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻋﻀﺎء‬
‫‪.1‬ﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﺑﺄﻗﻞ ﺯﻣﻦ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪.‬‬
‫‪13‬‬
‫ﻳﻘﻮﻡﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﺑﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕﺗﻠﻘﺎﺉﻴﺎً ﻛﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﻮﻗﺖ‪.‬‬

‫ﻳﺘﻢﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻫـﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻢ‪8.6‬‬

‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ‬
 ‫ﻳﻮﻓﺮﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍً ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺎً ﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺟﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰﺗﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‪.‬‬

‫‪.‬ﺇﻥ ﺩﻗﺔ ﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺃﻱ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺭﺑﺤﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬

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‫ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪.5‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺯ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺟﻤﻴﻊﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻛﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻣﻮﺛﻮﻕ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﻠﺤﻮﻇﺔ‬

‫ﻓﻮﺭﺩ‪،‬‬ ‫‪.‬ﻭﻋﻼﻡ ﺑﻮﺷﺎﺵ‪،‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ)ﻛﻴﺪﻟﻴﻨﺠﺘﻮﻥ‪ ،‬ﻙ‪ :‬ﺇﻟﺴﻔﻴﺮ‬

‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﻭﺩﺓ‪.(2003،‬‬

‫‪14‬‬
 ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪.‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‪.‬‬
‫‪ John Wiley & Sons, Inc.‬ﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2013‬ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ‪© 2013 John F. Ehlers.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞﺍﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﺭﻳﺮ‬
‫ﻳﺘﺤﻮﻝ‬
‫ﻗﺎﻝﺗﻮﻡ ﺑﻮﺿﻮﺡ‪" :‬ﺇﻥ ﺷﺎﺷﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﻣﻠﻮﻧﺔ"‪.‬‬

‫ﻓﻲﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﺉﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺼﻄﻠﺢ ‪) FFT‬ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﻓﻮﺭﻳﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻳﻊ( ﻣﺮﺍﺩﻑ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً‬

‫ﺇﻥﺗﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﻓﻮﺭﻳﻴﻪ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﻣﺠﺮﺩ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﻋﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﻫﻲ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺷﺎﺉﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻗﻴﺎﺱﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﻓﻮﺭﻳﻴﻪ ﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻀﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺎﻙ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫‪15‬‬
‫ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﻓﻮﺭﻳﻴﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪.‬ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻤﺜﻴﻞ ﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺑﻼ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪.ata‬‬

‫‪.2‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ )ﺧﺼﺎﺉﺺ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﺓ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺻﺤﻴﺢ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮﺍﺕﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎﺭﺃﻳﻨﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻣﻦ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺗﺰﻭﻝ ﺑﺴﺮﻋﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺗﺄﺗﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺗﺬﻫﺐﻭﺗﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺘﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﻭﺣﺪﻫﺎ ﻻ ﺗﺘﻔﻖ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭ‪2‬ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‪ .‬ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﺃﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺒﺪﺃ ﺑـ ‪ 64‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺃﺻﻐﺮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺻﺤﻴﺢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲﺗﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻫﻮ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ )ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 64‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً(‪ .‬ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻣﺴﻤﻮﺡﺑﻬﺎ ﻫﻲ ‪ 2 / 64‬ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ‪ 32‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً ﻷﻥ ‪ 2‬ﻫﻮ ﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‬
‫ﻋﺪﺩﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻬﺎ ﻫﻲ ‪/ 64‬‬
‫‪21.3‬ﺑﺎﺭﺍً‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﻗﺼﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻫﻮ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ‪ 16 64/4‬ﺑﺎﺭﺍً‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻗﺼﺮﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻬﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺮﻳﻄﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﺃﻱ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ‬
‫ﺗﻨﺘﻬﻚﻣﻌﺎﻳﻴﺮ ﺃﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻴﻜﻮﻳﺴﺖ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻴﻨﺘﻴﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﻟﻜﻞ‬
‫ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‪.‬ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﺗﻮﻗﻊ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺮﺓ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً‬
‫ﺩﻭﺭﺓﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺮﻳﻄﻴﻦ ﺳﺘﻈﻞ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺣﺘﻰ‬
 ‫ﻣﻦﺧﻼﻝ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻗﺼﻴﺮﺓ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 64‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻢ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻔﺎءﺷﺮﻁ ﺍﻟﺜﺒﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺮﺓ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺳﺎً ﺿﻌﻴﻔﺎً ﻟﻠﻐﺎﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻥﺍﻟﺪﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻮﻁﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻗﺮﺏ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 16‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً ﻭﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪21.3‬‬

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‫ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎًﺗﻌﻄﻲ ﺩﻗﺔ ‪ 5‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ‪ 31‬ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺎﺉﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ‪ 16‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴﺪﺓ‬
‫ﻟﺘﺤﺴﻴﻦﺍﻟﺪﻗﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻃﻮﻝ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﻔﺎﻗﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺜﺒﺎﺕﻭﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺉﺞ ﻗﺼﻴﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﻯ ﺍﻷﻃﻮﻝ‪ .‬ﻋﻼﻭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺯﻣﻦ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﻴﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻊﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﻤﻜﻨﺖ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﺑﺒﺮﺍﻋﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﻓﻮﺭﻳﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍً ﻃﻴﻔﻴﺎً ﻣﻔﻴﺪﺍً ﻟﻠﺘﺠﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺘﻠﺨﺺ‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺞﻓﻲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﻓﻮﺭﻳﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙ )‪ .(DFT‬ﻛﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻴﺔﺗﺘﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻛﺘﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺎﻓﺬﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺑﺄﻛﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﻻﺣﻖ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺇﺣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔﻫﻲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﻓﻮﺭﻳﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻭﻟﻴﺲﻓﻲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺃﻋﻤﺪﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥﺣﺴﺎﺏ ‪ DFT‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺃﻣﺮ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺮﺑﻄﻮﺍ‬
‫ﺑﻴﻦﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 20‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ 0.05‬ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﻟﻴﺲ‬
‫ﻟﻪﻣﻌﻨﻰ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻟﺠﻌﻞ ‪ DFT‬ﻗﺎﺑﻼ ًﻟﻼﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻋﺮﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﻛﺨﺮﻳﻄﺔ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪16‬‬

‫ﺗﻤﺪﺩﻃﻴﻔﻲ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﻣﻦﺍﻟﻮﺍﺿﺢ‪ ،‬ﺑﻤﺠﺮﺩ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻳﺔ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪،‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻛﻞ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﺍ‬
‫ﻫﻮﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺧﻄﻴﺎً ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻣﻊ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺮء ﻳﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺗﺠﺎﻫﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺻﻐﻴﺮ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً ﻣﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‪.‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺗﺤﺘﻮﻱﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻓﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺛﻢ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻘﺪﺍﻛﺘﺸﻔﺖ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺭﺑﻂ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺉﺞ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﻭ‪ DFT‬ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺻﻮﻑ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪ .‬ﻻ‬
‫ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺻﻮﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ‪ 8‬ﺃﻱ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﺾ‬
‫ﻷﻥﺍﻟﺴﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺟﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﻴﺔﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺪﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺄﺭﺟﺢ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 1‬ﻭ‪ .1‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬
 ‫ﺗﺨﻀﻊﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ‪ DFT‬ﻟﻠﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﻳﻠﺰﻡﺗﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻃﻴﻔﻲ ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻢﺗﻨﺎﻭﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺧﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺔ ‪.DFT‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞﻓﻮﺭﻳﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ )‪(DFT‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺇﻧﺠﺎﺯ ‪ DFT‬ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺭﺑﻂ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﺠﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻭﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻜﻞﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺪﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻛﻞﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺮﺍﺑﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﺜﻴﺔﺍﻟﻤﺄﻟﻮﻓﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﺳﻴﻦ‪x‬‬ ‫ﺃﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻛﺲ‬ ‫ﺃ‬

‫‪FOURIER TRANSFORMS‬‬
‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ‪ DFT‬ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪ .1-9‬ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴﺪﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻫﻮ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻮﻳﺾ‪ .‬ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬﺓ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻫﻮ ‪48‬‬
‫ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻩ ﻟﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻳﺘﻢ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻬﺎ‪.‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺎﺕ ﻷﻃﻮﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﻫﻲ ‪ 48‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‪.‬‬
‫‪117‬‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪﺇﻋﻼﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎً ﻓﻲ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻪ‬
‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓﻗﻄﻊ ﻣﻦ ‪ 8‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻟﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺘﺴﻘﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ‬
‫ﺛﻢﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ‪ ،SuperSmoother‬ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ ،3-3‬ﻭﻟﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓﻗﻄﻊ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺃﺷﺮﻃﺔ ﻟﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺘﺴﻘﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ‪.‬‬

‫ﻳﻘﻮﻡ‪ EasyLanguage‬ﺑﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ﺑﺎﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺳﻔﻞ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ‬

‫ﺟﺪﻳﺪﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻗﺪﻡ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺙ‪ .‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ‪ DFT‬ﻟﻜﻞ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ‬
‫ﻳﺒﺪﺃﺷﺮﻳﻂ ‪ ata‬ﺑﻀﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺟﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻟﻲ‪،‬ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻣﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﻭﺟﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬﺓ‪.‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻢ ﺟﻌﻞ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬﺓ ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻳﺎً ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺩﻭﺭﺓﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺗﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﺟﺰء ﺍﻟﻔﻦ ﻭﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻭﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻬﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‪ .‬ﺗﻢ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻛﻞ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔﺗﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻢ ﺿﺒﻂ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﻌﺎﻋﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰﺧﻄﺄ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺿﻤﻨﺎ ًﻋﻠﻰ ‪ ،1‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻋﺪﻡﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﺾ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﻛﺘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺐﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻻﺿﻤﺤﻼﻝ )‪ (AGC‬ﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ‬
‫ﺗﺬﺑﺬﺏﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺑﻤﺮﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪ .‬ﺗﻢ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ‪ AGC‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ؛ ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ‬
 ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔﺑﺪﻻ ًﻣﻦ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺿﻤﺤﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺬﺭﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﻟـ ‪ ،0.991‬ﺃﻭ ‪ .0.995‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ‬
‫ﻓﺄﺱ‪،‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﻣﺎﻛﺲ ﺑﺎﻭﺭﻳﺘﻢ ﺿﺒﻄﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻊﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦﻣﺎﻛﺲ ﺑﺎﻭﺭ‪،‬ﺛﻢﻣﺎﻛﺲ ﺑﺎﻭﺭﻳﺴُﻤﺢ‬

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‫ﻟﻪﺑﺎﻻﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 0.995‬ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻛﺘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺧﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﻞ )‪ .(CG‬ﺧﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﻞ )‪(CG‬‬
‫ﻳﻘﻴﺲﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻷﺟﺴﺎﻡ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺑﻌﺎﺩ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺟﻤﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢﻭﺟﻤﻊ ﻗﻴﻢ * ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ‪ .‬ﻗﺴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻳﻌﻄﻲ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺿﻊﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻮﺭ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺟﺪﻫﻨﺎ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﻴﻢ ‪ Y‬ﻫﻲ‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓﻭﻗﻴﻢ ‪ X‬ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﺤﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺨﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲﻳﺘﻢ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﻫﻲ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔﺗﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻭﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﻟﻀﺒﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‬
‫ﺗﻠﻘﺎﺉﻴﺎًﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‪،‬‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ )‪ ،(CCI‬ﻭﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ )‪ ،(I‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰﺫﻟﻚ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 0‬ﻭ‪ 1‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻌﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻟﻮﺍﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ ،0.5‬ﺗﺘﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﻟﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﻀﺮ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥﺍﻷﺻﻔﺮ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ‪ 1‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫‪18‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ‪ .0.5‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ ،0.5‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﺸﺒﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ﺃﺳﻮﺩﺍً ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ‪ .0‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ﻟﻠﻄﻴﻒ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺃﺿﻔﺖ ﻛﺘﻠﺔ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔ)ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﺗﻀﻤﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔ(‪.‬‬
‫)ﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﻷﻗﻮﺍﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺮﺟﺔ( ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﺩﻗﺔ ﺑﺼﺮﻳﺔ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻦﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‪ .‬ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎﻫﻮ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺗﻌﺴﻔﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﺮﻣﻮﺯ ‪ .1-9‬ﺭﻣﺰ ‪EasyLanguage‬‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ‪DFT‬‬

‫ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞﻓﻮﺭﻳﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ )‪ 2013 © (DFT‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ‪:‬‬

‫ﺗﻌﻮﻳﺾﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ)ﺻﺤﻴﺢ(؛‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .1-9‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫ﺁﺭﺱ‪:‬‬
‫ﻟﻔﺎ‪،(0)1‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺹ)‪،(0‬‬
‫‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺏ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺝ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺝ‪،(0)2‬‬
‫ﺝ‪،(0)3‬‬
‫‪ilt)0(،‬‬
‫ﺇﺭﻳﻮﺩ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﻥ)‪،(0‬‬
‫)‪(0‬‬

‫‪FOURIER TRANSFORMS‬‬
‫‪axPwr)0(،‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻣﺐ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺱ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺳﺒﻚ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‪(0)2‬؛‬
‫‪19‬‬
‫‪/‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺎﺕ ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻫﻮ ‪ 48‬ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺎً‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺎﺕ‪:‬‬
‫‪osinePart]48[)0(،‬‬
‫‪SinePart]48[)0(،‬‬
‫؛(‪wr]48[)0‬‬

‫‪/‬ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺎﺭﺍً‬

‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻳﺔ )‪/ (1 - (48 / 360*707.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪)1‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‪ (48 / 360*707.‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‬

‫‪(48 / 360*707.‬؛‬
‫*(ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪ - 1)*2*HP]1[ - )1 - 1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪( (1‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ‪*2 -‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪ [1‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪ - 1(*)[2‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪(*)2 / 1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪- 2 / 1‬‬
‫‪P )1‬‬
‫)‪ - 1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪HP]2[*(1‬؛‬
‫‪/‬ﺳﻠﺲ ﻣﻊ ﻓﻠﺘﺮ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺳﻼﺳﺔ ‪a1‬‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ )‪(10 / 3.14159*1.414-‬؛ ‪*a1*2‬‬
‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪(10 / 180*1.414‬؛ ﺏ‪1‬؛‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪-‬ﺃ‪*1‬ﺃ‪1‬؛‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺝ‪ - 2‬ﺝ‪3‬؛‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪[2‬؛*‪c3‬‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪c2*[1‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪)*1‬ﺣﺼﺔ ﺣﺼﺎﻥ ﺣﺼﺎﻥ]‪2 / ([1‬‬ ‫ﻓﻠﺘﺮ‬

‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .1-9‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫‪/‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﻫﻮ ‪DFT‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬

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‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‪omp‬؛‬
‫‪;1‬‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺄﺛﻢ ﻛﻮﻣﺐ‬ ‫[‪ osinePart]Period‬ﺗﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ‪f‬‬
‫‪;0‬‬
‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺰءﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻰ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[‬
‫‪/‬ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺠﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻮﺿﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺮﻱ‬

‫ﺃﻭ‪ N 0‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 47‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬

‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[‬ ‫ﺟﺰءﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[‬

‫ﺗﻌﻮﻳﺾ؛ ‪( /‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪)360*N/‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ*[‪ilt]N‬‬
‫[ﻓﺘﺮﺓ]‪[ SinePart‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ]‪SinePart‬‬
‫؛‪( / Comp‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‪ilt]N[*sine)360*N/‬‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[*ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[‬ ‫[ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪wr‬‬

‫؛[ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪[*SinePart‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪art‬‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫‪/‬ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ [‪. 995*MaxPwr]1‬‬

‫‪;axPwr‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓﻣﻦ ‪ 8‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺗﺒﺪﺃ‬ ‫‪20‬‬
‫؛‪ nd‬؛[ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪ = Pwr‬ﺍﻟﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻠﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺛﻢ ﺍﻟﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻠﻘﺪﺭﺓ < [ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪f Pwr‬‬

‫‪/‬ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻊ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺗﺤﻮﻳﻠﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ = ‪ 10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ؛‬ ‫؛‪[ nd‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪ Pwr‬ﺛﻢ ‪F MaxPwr < 0‬‬

‫‪/‬ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﻞ ﻟﻠﻄﻴﻒ ‪px‬‬

‫‪;0‬‬
‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﺹ‬
‫‪10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺛﻢﺍﺑﺪﺃ ‪f Pwr]Period[ <= .5‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ*‪]Pwr‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[؛‬ ‫ﺇﺱﺑﻲ ﺇﻛﺲ‬ ‫ﺇﺱﺑﻲ ﺇﻛﺲ‬

‫؛[ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪Sp + Pwr‬‬ ‫ﺹ‬

‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫‪ DominantCycle‬ﺛﻢ‬
‫ﺱ ‪ /‬ﺱ؛‬ ‫ﺱ‬
‫‪lot2)DominantCycle,‬‬ ‫;(‪“DC”, RGB)0, 0, 255(, 0, 2‬‬
‫‪f Sp ><0‬‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .1-9‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫‪/‬ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺩﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺭﻓﻊ ‪ NormPwr‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﻮﺓ ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ )ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻱ(‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ= ‪ 10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬
‫؛‪ nd‬؛(‪[، 3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪ )Pwr‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ [ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪wr‬‬

‫‪/‬ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﻛﺨﺮﻳﻄﺔ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪48‬‬

‫ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬
‫‪/‬ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻟﻮﻥ ‪ RGB‬ﻟﻠﺸﺎﺷﺔ ‪ f Pwr]Period[ < .5‬ﺛﻢ‬
‫ﺍﺑﺪﺃ‬
‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‪255 =1‬؛‬

‫‪FOURIER TRANSFORMS‬‬
‫؛‪[ - 1(; nd‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪olor2 255*)2*Pwr‬‬

‫ﺛﻢﺍﺑﺪﺃ ‪f Pwr]Period[ > .5‬‬

‫‪ olor2‬؛[ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪olor1 = 255*2*Pwr‬‬
‫‪;0‬‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫‪21‬‬ ‫‪10‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ‪)S10"، RGB" ،10)10‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪;(0,4‬‬
‫‪11‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً ﺭﻗﻢ ‪) S11"، RGB" ،11) 11‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪;(0,4‬‬
‫‪12‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ‪)S12"، RGB" ،12)12‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪;(0,4‬‬
‫‪13‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ‪)S13"، RGB" ،13)13‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪;(0,4‬‬
‫‪14‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ‪)S14"، RGB" ،14)14‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪15‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً ﺭﻗﻢ ‪) S15"، RGB" ،15) 15‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪16‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً ﺭﻗﻢ ‪) S16"، RGB" ،16) 16‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪17‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً ﺭﻗﻢ ‪) S17"، RGB" ،17) 17‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪18‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً ﺭﻗﻢ ‪) S18"، RGB" ،18) 18‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪19‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً ﺭﻗﻢ ‪) S19"، RGB" ،19) 19‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪;(0,4‬‬
‫‪20‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً ﺭﻗﻢ ‪) S20"، RGB" ،20) 20‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪;(0,4‬‬
‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .1-9‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫‪21‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ‪)S21"، RGB" ،21)21‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬

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‫‪22‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻄﻲ ‪)S22"، RGB" ،22)22‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪23‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ‪)S23"، RGB" ،23)23‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪24‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻄﻲ ‪)S24"، RGB" ،24)24‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪25‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻄﻲ ‪)S25"، RGB" ،25)25‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫‪26‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻄﻲ ‪)S26"، RGB" ،26)26‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪27‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻄﻲ ‪)S27"، RGB" ،27)27‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪28‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ‪)S28"، RGB" ،28)28‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪29‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ‪)S29"، RGB" ،29)29‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪30‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻄﻲ ‪)S30"، RGB" ،30)30‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪31‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻄﻲ ‪)S31"، RGB" ،31)31‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬ ‫‪22‬‬
‫‪32‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻄﻲ ‪)S32"، RGB" ،32)32‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪33‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻄﻲ ‪)S33"، RGB" ،33)33‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪34‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻄﻲ ‪)S34"، RGB" ،34)34‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪35‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻄﻲ ‪)S35"، RGB" ،35)35‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪36‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻄﻲ ‪)S36"، RGB" ،36)36‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪37‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻄﻲ ‪)S37"، RGB" ،37)37‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪38‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻄﻲ ‪)S38"، RGB" ،38)38‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪39‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻄﻲ ‪)S39"، RGB" ،39)39‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪40‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً ﺭﻗﻢ ‪) S40"، RGB" ،40) 40‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪41‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً ﺭﻗﻢ ‪) S41"، RGB" ،41) 41‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪42‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً ﺭﻗﻢ ‪) S42"، RGB" ،42) 42‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .1-9‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫‪43‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً ﺭﻗﻢ ‪) S43"، RGB" ،43) 43‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬

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‫‪44‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً ﺭﻗﻢ ‪) S44"، RGB" ،44) 44‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪45‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً‪)S45"، RGB" ،45)45‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪46‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً‪)S46"، RGB" ،46)46‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪47‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً ﺭﻗﻢ ‪) S47"، RGB" ،47) 47‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫‪48‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎً ﺭﻗﻢ ‪) S48"، RGB" ،48) 48‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪،(0 ،2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓﻑ‬
‫‪(4،‬؛‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫‪FOURIER TRANSFORMS‬‬
‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 9.1‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﻟـ ‪.DFT‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻓﻘﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺑﻮﺿﻮﺡ )ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﻧﺼﻒ ﻭﺛﻠﺚ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔﺍﻷﻗﻮﻯ(‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﺎﺭﻥ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺇﻳﺠﺎﺑﻲ‬
‫‪23‬‬ ‫ﻣﻊﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻀﻞ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫‪.9.2‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺭﺍﺉﻌﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﺯﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺘﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪9.1‬ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ‪DFT‬‬

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CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS

‫ ﻳﻘﺎﺭﻥ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺇﻳﺠﺎﺑﻲ ﻣﻊ‬DFT ‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ‬9.2‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬

‫ﻣﺨﻄﻂﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ‬

‫ ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺭﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻋﻀﺎء‬-
‫ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻳﺘﺠﺎﻫﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬DFT ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻲ ﻟـ‬.1
.‫ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ‬ 24
‫ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻟﺴﻬﻮﻟﺔ‬DFT ‫ﻳﺘﻢﺣﺴﺎﺏ‬
.‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﻴﺮ‬
.‫ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﻀﺎً ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‬DFT ‫ﻳﺠﺐﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ‬

‫ ﺗﻘﺎﺭﻥ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺇﻳﺠﺎﺑﻲ ﻣﻊ‬9.1 ‫ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬DFT ‫ﺇﻥ ﻧﺘﺎﺉﺞ‬.

.‫ﻧﺘﺎﺉﺞﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻴﺔ‬
 ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪.‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‪.‬‬
‫‪ John Wiley & Sons, Inc.‬ﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2013‬ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ‪© 2013 John F. Ehlers.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪10‬‬

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‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺃﻭﻣﺐ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻚﺃﻥ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﻝ ﺗﻮﻡ ﻣﺮﺍﺭﺍ ﻭﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍ‪.‬‬

‫ﺗﻢﻭﺻﻒ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻗﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺘﻠﺨﺺ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻫﺬﺍ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞﻓﻲ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻀﺒﻮﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔﻭﻣﺘﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺮ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻗﻲ ﻛﺄﺳﻨﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺸﻂ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﻂ ﺍﻷﺳﻨﺎﻥ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺪﺩﻫﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪25‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡﺑﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻂ ﻫﺬﻩ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﺷﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺨﺮﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺳﺘﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍً ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺧﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺩﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺑﺮﺓﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﺱ‪ ،‬ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺁﺧﺮ‪ .‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺑﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻮﻟﺔ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﻘﺎء ًﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻷﺳﻬﻞﻓﻬﻤﺎً ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﻃﺮﻕ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ‪.‬‬

‫ﺗﻤﺪﺩﻃﻴﻔﻲ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﻗﺒﻞﺍﻟﺒﺪء‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻣﺮﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﻟﺴﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺩﻭﺭﺓﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﺳﻤﺔ ﻣﺘﺄﺻﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻮﻳﺾ‬
‫ﻋﻦﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﺇﻟﺰﺍﻣﻲ‬
‫ﺇﻥﺇﺟﺮﺍء ﻗﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﻛﺒﻴﺮ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎً ﺃﻣﺮ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﻱ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻀﻤﻴﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺞ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﻫﺬﺍ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻤﺖﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻼ ًﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ‪.7‬‬
 ‫‪ -‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻂ‬
‫ﻧﻈﺮﺍًﻷﻥ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻃﻴﻔﻲ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻗﻮﻯ ﺍﻹﺧﺮﺍﺝ‬
‫ﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺿﺢ ﻟﻠﻐﺎﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ‬

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‫ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔﻟﻮﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺑﺎﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪asyLanguage‬‬
‫ﻗﺼﻴﺪﺓﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪.1-10‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔ ‪ .1-10‬ﺗﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺑﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔ ﺳﻬﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬

‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻂ‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫ﻃﻴﻒ‪BandPass‬‬
‫‪2013‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‬

‫ﺁﺭﺱ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺹ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺃ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺏ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫‪26‬‬
‫‪،(0)1‬‬
‫‪،(0)2‬‬
‫‪،(0)3‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻣﺐ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺑﻴﺘﺎ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﺎ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺩﻟﺘﺎ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﻥ)‪،(0‬‬
‫)‪(0‬‬
‫ﺇﺭﻳﻮﺩ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺹ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺑﻴﻜﺴﻞ)‪،(0‬‬

‫‪axPwr)0(،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ)‪،(0‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‪،(0)1‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‪،(0)2‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‪(0)3‬؛‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .1-10‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺎﺕ‪:‬‬

‫]‪(0)[48،48‬‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫؛(‪wr]48[)0‬‬

‫‪/‬ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺎﺭﺍً‬

‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻳﺔ )‪/ (1 - (48 / 360*707.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪)1‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‪ (48 / 360*707.‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ)‬

‫‪(48 / 360*707.‬؛‬
‫*(ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪ - 1)*2*HP]1[ - )1 - 1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪( (1‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ‪*2 -‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪ [1‬ﺇﻏﻼﻕ]‪ - 1(*)[2‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪(*)2 / 1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪- 2 / 1‬‬

‫‪COMB FILTER SPECTRAL ESTIMATES‬‬

‫‪P )1‬‬
‫)‪ - 1‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ‪HP]2[*(1‬؛‬
‫‪/‬ﺗﻨﻌﻴﻢ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﻌﻮﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ 3-3‬ﺃ‪1‬‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ )‪(10 / 3.14159*1.414-‬؛ ‪*a1*2‬‬
‫ﺟﻴﺐﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‪(10 / 180*1.414‬؛ ﺏ‪1‬؛‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪-‬ﺃ‪*1‬ﺃ‪1‬؛‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺝ‪ - 2‬ﺝ‪3‬؛‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪[2‬؛*‪c3‬‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪c2*[1‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪)*1‬ﺣﺼﺔ ﺣﺼﺎﻥ ﺣﺼﺎﻥ]‪2 / ([1‬‬ ‫ﻓﻠﺘﺮ‬

‫‪10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﻥ‬

‫‪48‬ﻧﺰﻭﻻ ًﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 2‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﻡ‬
‫‪127‬‬ ‫؛[ﻥ‪ ،‬ﻡ ‪BP]1 -‬‬ ‫ﺹ]ﻥ‪ ،‬ﻡ[‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫ﺛﻢﺍﺑﺪﺃ ‪f CurrentBar < 12‬‬

‫‪10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﻥ‬
‫ﻥ؛‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻣﺐ‬
‫‪;1‬‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺄﺛﻢ ﻛﻮﻣﺐ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻥ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ‪ = eta1‬ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ )‬
‫‪(N / 360‬؛‬
‫؛(‪*360/N‬ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ)ﺟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﻡ ‪gamma1 1 /‬‬
‫;(‪lpha1 = gamma1 - SquareRoot)gamma1*gamma1 - 1‬‬
‫ﺑﻴﺘﺎ‪*1‬‬ ‫ﻑ]ﻥ‪)*(alpha1 - 1)*5 . [1 ،‬ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ ‪ -‬ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺔ]‪([2‬‬
‫‪;alpha1(*BP]N, 2[ - alpha1*BP]N, 3[ 1‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ]‪;0 = [N‬‬
‫‪1‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﻡ‬
‫؛(ﻣﺮﻛﺐ ‪(*)BP]N, M[ /‬ﻣﺮﻛﺐ ‪)BP]N, M[ /‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ]‪[N‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ]‪[N‬‬
‫ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ؛‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .1-10‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫‪/‬ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ ‪. 995*MaxPwr‬‬

‫‪MaxPwr‬؛‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓﺍﻷﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 48‬ﺗﺒﺪﺃ‬
‫ﻗﻮﺓ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[؛‬ ‫؛‪ nd‬ﺍﻟﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻠﻘﻮﺓ ﺛﻢ ﺍﻟﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻠﻘﻮﺓ < [ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪Pwr‬‬
‫‪f‬‬

‫‪/‬ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻊ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺗﺤﻮﻳﻠﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ؛‬ ‫؛‪[ nd‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪ Pwr‬ﺛﻢ ‪f MaxPwr < 0‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫‪/‬ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﻞ ﻟﻠﻄﻴﻒ ‪px‬‬

‫‪;0‬‬
‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﺹ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ= ﻣﻦ ﺃﻗﺼﺮ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺗﺒﺪﺃ‬
‫< ‪ 5 .‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺑﺪﺃ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ*‪]Pwr‬‬ ‫[ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ]‪f Pwr‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[؛‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻜﺴﻞ= ‪Spx‬‬
‫ﻗﻮﺓ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[؛‬ ‫ﺳﺐﺳﺐ‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫‪28‬‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫‪ DominantCycle‬ﺛﻢ‬
‫ﺱ ‪ /‬ﺱ؛‬ ‫ﺱ‬
‫‪lot2)DominantCycle,‬‬ ‫;(‪“DC”, RGB)0, 0, 255(, 0, 2‬‬
‫‪f Sp ><0‬‬

‫‪/‬ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺩﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻗﻮﺓ‬
‫‪10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ)‪]Pwr‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[‪(3 ،‬؛‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ]ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ[‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫‪10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔﻟـ ﻥ‬

‫‪;0‬‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‪3‬‬
‫ﺛﻢﺍﺑﺪﺃ ‪f Pwr]N[ < .5‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‪255 =1‬؛‬
‫‪;(1-‬‬ ‫[‪]N‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ*‪olor2 255*)2‬‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ‪lse‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪*255*2 = 1‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ]‪[N‬؛‬
‫ﻟﻮﻥ‪02‬؛‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .1-10‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫‪10‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪,Plot10)N, “S10”, RGB)Color1, Color2‬‬ ‫ﻑﻥ‬

‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‪(0،5،(3‬؛‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫؛(‪(، 5 ،0‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪)N، "S11"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f N 11 11‬‬

‫؛(‪(، 0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S12"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f N 12 12‬‬

‫؛(‪(، 0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S13"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f N = 13 13‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S14"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f N 14 14‬‬

‫‪COMB FILTER SPECTRAL ESTIMATES‬‬

‫؛(‪(، 5 ،0‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪)N، "S15"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f N = 15 15‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S16"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f N 16 16‬‬

‫؛(‪(، 0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S17"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f N = 17 17‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S18"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f N 18 18‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S19"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f N 19 19‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S20"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪f N 20 20‬‬

‫‪29‬‬
‫؛(‪(، 5 ،0‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪)N، "S21"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ‪N 21 21‬‬
‫‪f‬‬
‫;(‪(,0,5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ,1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ,2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ Plot22)N, “S22”, RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f N = 22‬‬

‫؛(‪(، 5 ،0‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪)N، "S23"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ‪N 23 23‬‬
‫‪f‬‬
‫;(‪(,0,5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ,1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ,2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ Plot24)N, “S24”, RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f N = 24‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S25"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪f N 25 25‬‬

‫؛(‪(، 5 ،0‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪)N، "S26"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ‪= 26 26‬‬
‫‪fN‬‬
‫؛(‪(، 5 ،0‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪)N، "S27"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ‪N 27 27‬‬
‫‪f‬‬
‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S28"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪f N 28 28‬‬

‫؛(‪(، 5 ،0‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪)N، "S29"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ‪N 29 29‬‬
‫‪f‬‬
‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S30"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪f N 30 30‬‬

‫؛(‪(، 5 ،0‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪)N، "S31"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f N = 31 31‬‬

‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺉﻤﺔﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ‪) .1-10‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬

‫‪32‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪,Plot32)N, “S32”, RGB)Color1, Color2‬‬ ‫ﻑﻥ‬

‫ﺃﻭﻟﻮﺭ‪(0،5،(3‬؛‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫؛(‪(، 5 ،0‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪)N، "S33"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ‪N 33 33‬‬
‫‪f‬‬
‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S34"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪f N 34 34‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S35"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪f N 35 35‬‬

‫؛(‪(، 5 ،0‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪)N، "S36"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ‪= 36 36‬‬
‫‪fN‬‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫؛(‪(، 5 ،0‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ‪)N، "S37"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻲ ‪N 37 37‬‬
‫‪f‬‬
‫;(‪(,0,5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ,1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ,2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ Plot38)N, “S38”, RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f N = 38‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S39"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪f N 39 39‬‬

‫;(‪(,0,5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ,1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ,2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ Plot40)N, “S40”, RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f N = 40‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S41"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪f N 41 41‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S42"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪f N 42 42‬‬

‫‪30‬‬
‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S43"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪f N 43 43‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S44"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪f N 44 44‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S45"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪f N = 45 45‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S46"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪f N 46 46‬‬

‫؛(‪(، 0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S47"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ‪f N = 47 47‬‬

‫؛(‪(،0،5‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،1‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،2‬ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪)N، "S48"، RGB)3‬ﺛﻢ ﺍﺭﺳﻢ‪f N 48 48‬‬

‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ؛‬

‫ﺗﻢﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺨﻄﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﻻﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ‬

‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 48‬ﺑﺎﺭﺍً‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻢ ﺗﺠﻬﻴﺰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎً ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻊ ﺑﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺐ ﻭﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ‪Su‬‬
‫ﻣﻦﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺳﻼﺳﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﻣﻞء ﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺑﻘﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺨﻴﺔﻟﻠﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﺑﺎﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕ ﻻﺣﻘﺎً ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
 ‫ﻧﻈﺮﺍًﻷﻥ ﻛﻮﺩ ‪ EasyLanguage‬ﺑﺎﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﻔﻞﻣﻊ ﻛﻞ ﺷﺮﻳﻂ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻛﺘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺗﺤﺪﺩ ﻛﻞ‬
‫ﻗﻨﺎﺓﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﻭﺗﺤﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻠﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻫﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫ﺗﺮﺩﺩ‪ GC‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺄﺗﻲ ﻻﺣﻘﺎً‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎً ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﻟﻠﻘﻨﺎﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﻨﺎﺓ‪.‬‬

‫ﻓﻲﻛﺘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﻓﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺐ)‪ (GC‬ﻟﻠﻬﺠﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻳﻊ ﻭﺍﻻﻧﺤﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﻲء ﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺑﻤﺮﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪ .‬ﺗﻢ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ‪ C‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬

‫‪COMB FILTER SPECTRAL ESTIMATES‬‬

‫‪5‬؛ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺳﻌﺔﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻧﺤﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺠﺬﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﻟـ‬
‫‪،0.991‬ﺃﻭ ‪ .0.995‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﻣﺎﻛﺲ ﺑﺎﻭﺭ‪،‬ﺛﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮﻓﺄﺱﻳﺘﻢ ﺿﺒﻄﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻧﺖﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ‬
‫ﻫﺎﻥﻓﺄﺱ‪،‬ﺛﻢﻣﺎﻛﺲ ﺑﺎﻭﺭﻳﺴُﻤﺢ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﻻﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 0.995‬ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺒﻊ‪،‬ﺃﻱ ﺇﺟﺮﺍء ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻟﻪ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻠﻬﺠﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻳﻊ ‪ -‬ﺍﻻﺿﻤﺤﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﻲء ‪ C‬ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻻﺿﻤﺤﻼﻝ‬
‫‪31‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﻲﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪ .‬ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﻩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﻫﻮ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙﺍﻷﺳﻲ )‪ .(EA‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﻟﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲﺃﺛﻨﺎء ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ‪ .‬ﻣﻨﺤﺪﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ‪ GC‬ﻫﻮ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً‬

‫‪6‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻑ ﻋﺒﺮ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺳﻌﺔﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﻳﻮﻓﺮ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﻀﺎً‬
‫ﺝﺍﻟﻔﻌﻞ‪ .‬ﻝ‬ ‫ﻗﺪﺭﻩ‪ 6‬ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺃﻭﻛﺘﺎﻑ ﻟـ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻣﻞ‪ 2‬ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺟﻊ‪،‬ﺍﻷﻭﻛﺘﺎﻑ ﻫﻮ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪.2:1‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﻫﻮ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ‪ 4‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺎﻣﻞ ‪ 4‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻳﻘﺎﺑﻞ ‪6‬‬
‫ﺩﻳﺴﻴﺒﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻛﺘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺧﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﻞ )‪ .(CG‬ﺧﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﻞ )‪(CG‬‬
‫ﻳﻘﻴﺲﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻷﺟﺴﺎﻡ ﺛﻨﺎﺉﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺑﻌﺎﺩ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺟﻤﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢﻭﺟﻤﻊ ﻗﻴﻢ * ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ‪ .‬ﻗﺴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﻴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻳﻌﻄﻲ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺿﻊﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻮﺭ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺟﺪﻫﻨﺎ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻦﻗﻮﺓ ﻭﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﺤﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺨﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔﻫﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺗﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻭﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﻟﻀﺒﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯﺗﻠﻘﺎﺉﻴﺎً ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‪،‬‬
 ‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ )‪ ،(CCI‬ﻭﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ )‪ ،(I‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺉﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰﺫﻟﻚ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 0‬ﻭ‪ 1‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻌﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻟﻮﺍﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﺃﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ ،0.5‬ﺗﺘﺤﺪ ﺍﻷﻟﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﻀﺮ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥﺍﻷﺻﻔﺮ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ‪ ،1‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ‪ .0.5‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ ،0.5‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﺸﺒﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥﺍﻷﺣﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ﺃﺳﻮﺩﺍً ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ‪ .0‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ﻟﻠﻄﻴﻒ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺃﺿﻔﺖ ﻛﺘﻠﺔ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔ)ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﺗﻀﻤﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﻴﺔ(‪.‬‬
‫)ﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﻷﻗﻮﺍﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺮﺟﺔ( ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﺩﻗﺔ ﺑﺼﺮﻳﺔ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻦﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‪ .‬ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎﻫﻮ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺗﻌﺴﻔﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 10.1‬ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺏ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ‪ .0.3‬ﺗﺘﻢ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﻭﻃﺮﻕ ‪ DFT‬ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪ .10.2‬ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍً ﻣﺘﺴﻘﺎً ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪.‬ﻓﻲ ﺭﺃﻳﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﻷﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱﻟﻪ ﺯﻣﻦ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺃﻗﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻪ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺃﻭﺳﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎًﺗﺎﺭﻳﺨﻴﺎً‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﺗﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ‪ .‬ﻟﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺳﺒﺎﺏ‪،‬‬
‫ﺳﺄﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡﻧﻬﺞ ﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ ﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪32‬‬
‫ﻓﻲﺑﻘﻴﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ‪.‬‬

‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﻟﻤﺮﺷﺢ ‪ omb‬ﻟـ ‪DG‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪10.1‬‬

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‫‪COMB FILTER SPECTRAL ESTIMATES‬‬
‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻂ ﻭ‪ DFT‬ﻭﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪10.2‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕﺍﻟﻄﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠـ ‪DG‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﻧﻘﺎﻁﺭﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻋﻀﺎء‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺃﻃﻴﺎﻑ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦﻣﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻀﺒﻮﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬
‫‪33‬‬
‫ﻣﻊﻧﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ‪ ping‬ﻣﺘﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍًﻟﻠﻤﺤﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺠﺐﺗﻀﻤﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻂ ﻟﻠﻄﻴﻒ‪.‬‬
‫‪.‬ﻳﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻀﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕﻃﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪.‬‬
 ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪.‬ﺟﻮﻥ ﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻳﻠﺮﺯ‪.‬‬
‫‪ John Wiley & Sons, Inc.‬ﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2013‬ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ‪© 2013 John F. Ehlers.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪1 1‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬
‫"ﻳﺠﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻨﺎ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ"‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﻝ ﺗﻮﻡ ﺑﺼﺮﺍﻣﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﻥ ٍﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻋﺪﻳﺪﺓ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻝ‪،‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻜﻴﻒﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻔﻲ ﻟﺒﻴﺮﻱ ﻛﻮﻓﻤﺎﻥ )‪ (KAMA‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻲﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻟﺘﻮﺷﺎﺭ ﺗﺸﺎﻧﺪﻱ )‪ (VIDYA‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺑﺤﻜﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ‪،‬ﺗﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﻣﻊ ﺗﻐﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻬﻲ ﺗﻐﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺤﻈﻴﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺑﻌﺪﺭﺣﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺷﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻤﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻫﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺷﺢﺳﺘﻮﻛﺎﺳﺘﻴﻚ ﺍﻟﻤﺄﻟﻮﻑ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ )‪ ،(RSI‬ﻭﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ )‪CCI‬‬
‫‪35‬‬ ‫(‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺗﻤﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺉﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ‪ .‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﺎﺩﺓ ﻫﺬﻩ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ًﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ‬
‫ﺫﻟﻚ‪،‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺳﺔ ﺗﺘﻐﻴﺮ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺭﺃﻳﻨﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﻲﺗﻜﻴﻴﻒ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻊ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺳﺔ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕﺍﻟﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﻤﻴﻞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺮﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪،‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺿﺒﻂ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﺴﻴﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻈﺮﻭﻑﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺧﺼﺎﺉﺺ ﺗﻨﺒﺆﻳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺧﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﺎﺉﻲ‪.‬ﺗﺤﺪﺩ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺎً ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺟﺎﻉ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‪.‬ﺃﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺴﻂ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ‬
‫ﺳﻼﺳﺔﻭﺃﺳﻬﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻋﻼﻭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺗﻢ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ‬
‫ﺃﻛﻮﺍﺩﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻓﻮﻕﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻴﻔﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﻧﺸﺎء ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕﻟﺘﺮﺳﺎﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻚ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻔﻲ )‪(RSI‬‬

‫ﻟﻘﺪﻗﺪﻣﺖ ﺇﻟﻴﺲ ﻭﺍﻳﻠﺪﺭ ﻟﻠﺘﻮ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺑﺪﺃﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﺄﻟﺖﻭﺳﻴﻄﻲ ﻟﻤﺎﺫﺍ ﺗﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ‪ 14‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎً ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺏ‪ .‬ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺇﺟﺎﺑﺘﻪ‬
‫ﺷﻲءﻣﺜﻞ "ﻷﻥ ﻭﺍﻳﻠﺪﺭ ﻗﺎﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ"‪ .‬ﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﺪﻳﻚ ﺃﻱ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺮﺿﺎ‬
 ‫ﻛﺎﻥﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺮﺩ ﻣﻮﺟﻬﺎً ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺪﺃﻧﻲ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﻲ ﺭﺣﻠﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺕ ﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺃﺣﺘﺎﺝﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺜﻮﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻋﺘﻘﺪ ﺃﻧﻨﻲ ﺃﺳﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺍﻵﻥ ﻭﺻﻒ‬
‫ﻫﺬﻩﺍﻹﻋﺪﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻢﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻲ ﻟﻮﺍﻳﻠﺪﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ‬

‫‪Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ by Egyptian National Sti. Network )Enstinet(, Wiley Online Library on ]25/11/2024[. See the Terms and Conditions )https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions( on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License‬‬
‫‪⎤100‬‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ=‪⎡− 100‬‬
‫⎣⎢‪+1‬ﺭ‪.‬ﺱ⎦⎥‬

‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺇﻏﻼﻗﺎﺕ ‪ 14‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺻﺎﻋﺪﺓ‬

‫ﺭ‪.‬ﺱ=‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺇﻏﻼﻗﺎﺕ ‪ 14‬ﻳﻮﻣﺎً ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺎً‬
‫‪CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS‬‬

‫"ﻳﻐﻠﻖ"ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﺍﻷﻣﺲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺴﻮﻑ‬
‫ﻧﻀﻴﻒﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺤﻮ ﻣﻤﺎﺛﻞ‪،‬ﻳﻐﻠﻖ‬
‫ﻣﻠﻚ"ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﺍﻷﻣﺲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺴﻮﻑ‬
‫ﻧﻀﻴﻒﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺍﻹﻳﺠﺎﺑﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺗﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﺳﺘﺒﺪﻟﻨﺎﺳﻲ ﻳﻮ‪/‬ﺩ‪.‬ﺛﻢ‪،‬‬

‫⎤‬ ‫⎡‬
‫ﺍﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔﻗﺮﺹ ﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ‪-‬‬
‫‪*100 +‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬
‫* ﻭﺣﺪﺓﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ‬ ‫⎡‪*100‬ﻗﺮﺹ ﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ ⎤‬ ‫⎢ ‪⎥ 100‬‬
‫‪⎢− 100‬‬
‫‪*100‬ﻗﺮﺹ ﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ‬
‫ﻭﺣﺪﺓﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ⎥ =‪− 100‬‬ ‫=ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ‬
‫ﻭﺣﺪﺓﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪+‬ﻗﺮﺹ ﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ‬ ‫⎣⎢ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪+‬ﻗﺮﺹ ﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ⎦⎥ =‬
‫⎥‬ ‫⎢ ‪+1‬‬
‫ﻗﺮﺹﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ⎦‬ ‫⎣‬ ‫‪36‬‬
‫‪*100‬ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ=‬
‫ﻭﺣﺪﺓﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪+‬ﻗﺮﺹ ﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ‬

‫ﻭﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻱ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓﻋﻤﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪،‬‬

‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲﺩﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺫﻟﻚ‪،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ‪ 100‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﻮﻓﺮ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺳﺎً ﺑﺴﻴﻄﺎً‪ .‬ﻟﺬﺍ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔﻫﻮ ﻣﺠﺮﺩ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺿﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺣﺪﺓﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ=‬
‫ﻭﺣﺪﺓﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪+‬ﻗﺮﺹ ﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ‬

‫ﻳﺼﺒﺢﺍﻟﺴﺆﺍﻝ ﺇﺫﻥ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻃﻮﻝ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﻟﺘﻠﺨﻴﺺ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﻨﺎ ﻃﻮﻻً ﻃﻮﻳﻼً ﻟﻠﻐﺎﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً‬
‫ﻧﺼﻒﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻓﺮﻭﻕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﺤﻮﻡ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ‪ 0.5‬ﻭﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﻼ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻟﻠﺘﻠﺨﻴﺺ ﻗﺼﻴﺮﺍً ﺟﺪﺍً‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺳﻴﻈﻞ ﻋﺎﻟﻘﺎً ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫‪1‬ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻭﺳﻴﻈﻞ ﻋﺎﻟﻘﺎً ﻋﻨﺪ ‪ 0‬ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕﺍﻟﻬﺎﺑﻄﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻟﻢ ﻣﺜﺎﻟﻲ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺘﺄﺭﺟﺢ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻛـ‬
 ‫ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺳﻮﻑ‬،‫ﺇﺫﺍﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ‬
.‫ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻮﻉ‬1 ‫ﻳﻼﻣﺲﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬
alf ‫ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬0 ‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﻼﻣﺲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬،‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻤﺜﻞ‬
‫ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﺗﺄﺭﺟﺢ‬،‫ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‬.‫ﺍﻟﻬﺒﻮﻃﻲﻟﻠﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﻠﺨﻴﺺ‬

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‫ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺗﻠﺨﻴﺺ ﺗﻜﻴﻔﻲ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﻫﻮ‬،‫ﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
.‫ﻧﺼﻒﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺳﺔ‬
‫ﻳﺒﺪﺃﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻔﻲ ﺑﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ ﻳﺸُﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ‬،‫ ﻭﺑﺪﻻ ًﻣﻦ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ‬.‫ﻧﻬﺞﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬
‫ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﺍﻟﺮﻣﺰ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺉﻤﺔ‬.8 ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺭﺉﺑﺎﻟﻮﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬
‫ ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‬،‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﻣﺰ ﺍﻟﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻔﻲ‬1-11
‫ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺉﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ ﻧﻈﺮﺍً ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﻬﺪﻑ ﻫﻮ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ‬.‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻖﺍﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ‬
‫ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻓﻠﺘﺮﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ‬،‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺩﺩﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻤﺮﺭﻫﺎ ﻣﺮﺷﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻘﻴﻒ ﻓﻘﻂ‬
‫ ﺑﺪﻻ ًﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﻼﻝ‬.‫ﻛﻤﺪﺧﻞﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ‬
be adjusted to 20 percent/80 percent or whatever else serves the purpose.

ADAPTIVE FILTERS
reference lines at the 30 percent and 70 percent levels, but these an easily
computed in the dominant cycle measurement part of the code. I have ncluded
n Chapter 3.The coefficients for the SuperSmoother filters have previously been
to perform smoothing on the ratio using the SuperSmoother filter described

137 ently taking the averages of the numerator and denominator, I chose

Code Listing 11-1. EasyLanguage

Code for the Adaptive RSI

Adaptive RSI
c( 2013 John F. Ehlers

ars:
AvgLength)3(,
,(0)
N)0(,
X)0(,
Y)0(,
alpha1)0(,
P)0(,

ontinued
 (ContinuedCode Listing 11-1. )

,(0)1
b1)0(,

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c1)0(,
c2)0(,
c3)0(,
ilt)0(,
Lag)0(,
count)0(,
Sx)0(,
CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS

Sy)0(,
Sxx)0(,
Syy)0(,
Sxy)0(,
eriod)0(,
Sp)0(,
Spx)0(,
axPwr)0(,
DominantCycle)0(,

38
olor1)0(,
olor2)0(,
olor3)0(;

Arrays:
orr]48[)0(,
osinePart]48[)0(,
SinePart]48[)0(,
SqSum]48[)0(,
R]48, 2[)0(,
wr]48[)0(;

/Highpass filter cyclic components whose periods are shorter han 48 bars

Sine ).707*360 / 48( - 1( / .707*360 / 48( Cosine).707*360 / 48(;

alpha1 )Cosine)
- 2*Close]1[ Close]2[( 2*)1 - alpha1(*HP]1[ - )1 - alpha1(*)1 - alpha1(*HP]2[;
HP )1 - alpha1 / 2(*)1 - alpha1 / 2(*)Close

Smoother Filter from equation 3-3 a1 expvalue)-1.414*3.14159 / 10(;

/Smooth with a Super
 (ContinuedCode Listing 11-1. )

;(10 / 2*a1*Cosine)1.414*180 1
b1; 2

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- a1*a1; 3
1 - c2 - c3; 1
c3*Filt]2[; c2*Filt]1[ c1*)HP HP]1[( / 2 Filt

correlation for each value of lag or Lag = 0 to 48 Begin

/Pearson
/Set the averaging length as M
AvgLength;
Lag; 0 Then M f AvgLength
;0 x
;0 Sy
;0 xx

ADAPTIVE FILTERS
yy = 0;
Sxy 0;
or count = 0 to M - 1 Begin
Filt]count[;
count[; Filt]Lag Y
39 X; Sx Sx
Y; Sy y
X*X; Sxx Sxx
X*Y; Sxy xy
Y*Y; Syy = Syy
nd;
Corr]Lag[ )M*Sxy - Sx*Sy(/SquareRoot))M*Sxx - Sx*Sx(*)M*Syy - Sy*Sy((;
f )M*Sxx - Sx*Sx(*)M*Syy - Sy*Sy( < 0 Then

nd;

10 to 48 Begin For Period

;0 osinePart]Period[
;0 SinePart]Period[
or N 3 to 48 Begin
CosinePart]Period[ osinePart]Period[
/ Period(; orr]N[*Cosine)360*N
Corr]N[*Sine)360*N / SinePart]Period[ SinePart]Period[ Period(;

nd;

ontinued
 (ContinuedCode Listing 11-1. )

CosinePart]Period[*CosinePart]Period[ SqSum]Period[
SinePart]Period[*SinePart]Period[;

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nd;
For Period = 10 to 48 Begin
R]Period, 1[; R]Period, 2[
. 2*SqSum]Period[*SqSum]Period[ R]Period, 1[
. 8*R]Period, 2[;
nd;

Power Level for Normalization MaxPwr . 991*MaxPwr;

CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS

/Find Maximum
For Period 10 to 48 Begin
R]Period, 1[; f R]Period, 1[ < MaxPwr Then MaxPwr nd;

3 to 48 Begin For Period

Pwr]Period[ = R]Period, 1[ / MaxPwr;
nd;

/Compute the dominant cycle using the CG of the spectrum px

;0
;0 p 40
For Period = 10 to 48 Begin
Period*Pwr]Period[; f Pwr]Period[
< . 5 Then Begin px = Spx
Pwr]Period[; Sp Sp
nd;
nd;
Spx / Sp; f Sp >< 0 Then DominantCycle
= 10; f DominantCycle < 48 Then DominantCycle 48;
f DominantCycle > 10 Then DominantCycle
/Adaptive RSI starts here, using half the measured dominant ycle for tuning

ars:
losesUp)0(,
losesDn)0(,
Denom)0(,
yRSI)0(;

;0 ClosesUp
;0 losesDn
 (ContinuedCode Listing 11-1. )

0 to IntPortion)DominantCycle / 2 - 1( Begin For count

1[ Then ClosesUp = ClosesUp 1[(; Filt]count Filt]count[ - Filt]count

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f Filt]count[ <
ClosesDn 1[ Then ClosesDn f Filt]count[ > Filt]count )Filt]count
1[ - Filt]count[(;
nd;
ClosesDn; ClosesUp Denom

= c1*)ClosesUp / enom ClosesUp]1[ / Denom]1[( / 2 c2*MyRSI]1[ 3*MyRSI]2[;

f Denom >< 0 and Denom]1[ >< 0 Then MyRSI

lot1)MyRSI(;
lot2).7(;
lot6).3(;

ADAPTIVE FILTERS
roughly the last year in Figure 11.1. Note that the indicator reaches zero
he adaptive RSI has been applied to Dollar General )symbol DG( over
events happen relatively rarely, and show that the ndicator is properly tuned.
41 prices have had a cyclic swing over half the period of the dominant cycle.These
r one only when the

lf the Dominant Cycle aptive SI Is operly ned to 11.1 U

riod
 Adaptive Stochastic Indicator -

The basic idea of the stochastic indicator is that it measures the current
dominant cycle period is used for the observation range in the calculations.

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is assured only by searching ver the entire dominant cycle period, the entire
finding the highest close and owest close over the dominant cycle period
the highest close and the owest close over the observation range. Since
observation range, and normalize that relative price to the range between
losing price relative to the lowest close over the
nant cycle using the autocorrelation periodogram approach. Rather than
CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS

he adaptive stochastic indicator starts with the computation of the domi

the objective is to use only those frequency components passed by the roofing
the dominant cycle calculation is noted by the comment near the end. Since
tive stochastic indicator, and the identification of the indicator itself following
in Chapter 8. Code isting 11-2 contains the sy anguage code for the adap
escribing the computations, the reader is referred to the description
is used as a data input rather than closing prices.Filt lter, the variable
the lowest “close” over the period of the current dominant cycle. The variable
ratio of the current value of toc he first step is to identify the highest “close” and
and is the unfiltered value of the adaptive stochastic.The Filt is computed as the
42
variable is filtered using the SuperS-toc to the price range
of the numerator and denominator, I chose to perform smoothng on the ratio
filter first describe in Chapter 3. Rather than independently taking the averages
to 20 percent/80 percent or whatever else serves the purpose.toc oother
lines at the 30 percent and 70 percent levels, but these can easily be adjusted
in the dominant cycle measurement part of the code. I have included reference
3. The coefficients for the SuperSmoother filters have previously been computed
using the SuperSmoother filter described in Chapter

for the Adaptive Stochastic Indicator

Code Listing 11-2. EasyLanguage Code

Adaptive Stochastic
c( 2013 John F. Ehlers

ars:
AvgLength)3(,
,(0)
 (ContinuedCode Listing 11-2. )

N)0(,
,(0)

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Y)0(,
lpha1)0(,
P)0(,
,(0)1
b1)0(,
c1)0(,
c2)0(,
c3)0(,
ilt)0(,
Lag)0(,
count)0(,

ADAPTIVE FILTERS
Sx)0(,
Sy)0(,
Sxx)0(,
Syy)0(,
Sxy)0(,

43
eriod)0(,
Sp)0(,
Spx)0(,
axPwr)0(,
DominantCycle)0(;

Arrays:
orr]48[)0(,
osinePart]48[)0(,
SinePart]48[)0(,
SqSum]48[)0(,
R]48, 2[)0(,
wr]48[)0(;

filter cyclic components whose periods are shorter than 48 bars

/Highpass
Sine ).707*360 / 48( - 1( / .707*360 / 48( Cosine).707*360 / 48(;
alpha1 = )Cosine)
(*)1 - alpha1 / 2(*)Close - 2*Close]1[ Close]2[( 2*)1 - alpha1(*HP]1[ - )1 - alpha1(*
HP )1 - alpha1 / 2
1 - alpha1(*HP]2[;
/Smooth with a Super Smoother Filter from equation3-3

ontinued
 (ContinuedCode Listing 11-2. )

;(10 / 3.14159 2*a1*Cosine)1.414*180 1

;(10 / expvalue)-1.414* 1

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b1; 2
- a1*a1; 3
1 - c2 - c3; 1
c3*Filt]2[; c2*Filt]1[ HP]1[( / 2 Filt = c1*)HP

correlation for each value of lag For Lag 0 to 48 Begin

/Pearson
CYCLE ANALYTICS FOR TRADERS

/Set the averaging length as M

AvgLength;
Lag; 0 Then M f AvgLength
;0 Sx
;0 y
Sxx = 0;
Syy 0;
xy = 0;
0 to M - 1 Begin or count
Filt]count[;

44
count[; Filt]Lag
X; Sx x
Y; Sy Sy
X*X; Sxx xx
X*Y; Sxy = Sxy
Y*Y; Syy Syy
nd;
Corr]Lag[ )M*Sxy - Sx*Sy(/SquareRoot))M*Sxx - Sx*Sx(*)M*Syy - Sy*Sy((;
f )M*Sxx - Sx*Sx(*)M*Syy - Sy*Sy( < 0 Then

nd;

10 to 48 Begin For Period

;0 osinePart]Period[
;0 SinePart]Period[
or N 3 to 48 Begin
+ CosinePart]Period[ osinePart]Period[
/ Period(; orr]N[*Cosine)360*N
Corr]N[*Sine)360*N / SinePart]Period[ SinePart]Period[ Period(;

nd;
 (ContinuedCode Listing 11-2. )

CosinePart]Period[*CosinePart]Period[ SqSum]Period[
SinePart]Period[*SinePart]Period[;

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nd;
10 to 48 Begin For Period
R]Period, 2[ = R]Period, 1[;
. 2*SqSum]Period[*SqSum]Period[ 2[; R]Period, 1[
. 8*R]Period,
nd;

Power Level for Normalization MaxPwr . 995*MaxPwr;

/Find Maximum
For Period = 10 to 48 Begin
R]Period, 1[; f R]Period, 1[ < MaxPwr Then MaxPwr nd;

3 to 48 Begin

ADAPTIVE FILTERS
For Period
R]Period, 1[ / MaxPwr; wr]Period[
nd;

/Compute the dominant cycle using the CG of the spectrum px

;0
45 ;0 p
10 to 48 Begin For Period
Period*Pwr]Period[; f Pwr]Period[
< . 5 Then Begin px Spx
Pwr]Period[; Sp = Sp
nd;
nd;
Spx / Sp; f Sp >< 0 Then DominantCycle
= 10; f DominantCycle < 48 Then DominantCycle 48;
f DominantCycle > 10 Then DominantCycle

/Stochastic Computation starts here ars:

ighestC)0(,
LowestC)0(,
Stoc)0(,
SmoothNum)0(,
SmoothDenom)0(,
AdaptiveStochastic)0(;

ontinued