Edita Food Industries (EFID.

CA) Made by : Mohamed Khoder

Financial Modeling & Valuation Linkedin : https://www.linkedin.com/in/mohamed-khoder-

Established in 1996, Edita Food Industries continues to evolve, upholding its commitment to delivering premium-quality snack products that
Company Overview

resonate with consumers’ evolving tastes and preferences. Edita’s venture into the industry began when it introduced the first packaged croissant
snack under its flagship brand Molto to Egypt’s market. Today, Edita has gained traction for its diverse product range spanning across cakes,
bakery, rusks, wafers, candy, biscuits, and frozen pastries, featuring over 140 SKUs.

Edita meets ever-growing consumer demands by continuously increasing its production capacity, expanding its distribution network, and adding to
its burgeoning team of skilled individuals. Currently, Edita operates seven ISO certified, state-of-the-art facilities in Egypt and an overseas facility in
Morocco, all-in-all housing 36 production lines with an expanding regional footprint that covers over 20 export markets.

Revenue Growth Revenue from 2019 -2028

47,076
38,636
Revenue

58% 54% 31,416

46%
35% 25,261
31% 18,647
24% 23% 22%
12,126
7,671
0% 4,025 4,021 5,251

2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Revenue by segment Gross Profit by segment

15,000
30,000
10,000
Segment

20,000
5,000
10,000
0
0 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F -5,000
Cakes Bakery Rusts Wafers Candy Biscuits Others
Cakes Bakery Rusts Wafers Candy Biscuits Others
 50%
40% 37% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38%
36% 36% 35%
40%
Profitability

10% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 30%

6% 9%

20%
2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
10%
Gross Profit Margin Net Profit Margin
0%
2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
2027F ROA ROE ROIC
Liquidity

2025F

2023A

2021A

2019A
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60
Cash Ratio Quick Ratio Current Ratio
Financial Leverage "Equity Multiplier"
80% 70%
60% 63%
57% 59% 59%
60% 59% 59% 63% 54%
57% 50%
Solvency

54%
40% 40%
25%
27% 28% 30% 28% 28% 21% 18% 30%
20% 17% 16% 25%
14% 20% 21% 18%
12% 11% 17% 16%
10% 10%
0% 10%
2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 0%
Debt/Equity Debt/Assets 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
250.00X

200.00X
Efficiency

150.00X

100.00X

50.00X

0.00X
2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
A/R Turnover Inventory Turnover A/P Turnover
Financial Modeling For EFID.CA
Financial Statements 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Income Statement

Revenue 4,025 4,021 5,251 7,671 12,126 18,647 25,261 31,416 38,636 47,076
Rev Growth % 0% 31% 46% 58% 54% 35% 24% 23% 22%

COGS 2,584 2,425 3,364 4,805 7,867 11,610 15,745 19,546 23,997 29,194
COGS Growth % -6% 39% 43% 64% 48% 36% 24% 23% 22%

Gross Profit 1,441 1,596 1,887 2,866 4,259 7,037 9,516 11,871 14,639 17,882
Gross Profit Growth % 11% 18% 52% 49% 65% 35% 25% 23% 22%

SG&A 862 966 1,022 1,308 1,846 3,623 4,908 6,104 7,507 9,147
SG&A Growth % 12% 6% 28% 41% 96% 35% 24% 23% 22%

EBITDA 580 630 865 1,559 2,413 3,414 4,608 5,767 7,132 8,735
EBITDA Growth % 9% 37% 80% 55% 41% 35% 25% 24% 22%

Depreciation 152 193 183 208 256 317 416 551 715 914
Amortization Lease - - 13 15 21 29 38 51 65 83
Amortization of Intangible - - - 6 8 4 5 5 5 6
EBIT 428 438 670 1,329 2,129 3,063 4,149 5,160 6,346 7,732
EBIT Growth% 2% 53% 98% 60% 44% 35% 24% 23% 22%

(+)Other Income 25 82 35 17 42 40 43 35 36 39
(-)Other Losses 55 42 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4
(-)Finance Cost 9 95 83 111 212 226 319 406 507 622
(-)Share of net loss of joint ventures 0 2 6 5 0 0 1 2 3 4
Years 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

(+)Interest Income 0 76 77 112 214 96 115 123 132 136

(-)Inventory write down provision 0 0 2 4 11 3 4 5 5 6
(-)Provisions 0 0 10 39 31 16 19 23 26 23
(-)Employee Benefit obligations Provision 0 0 3 12 19 7 8 10 11 11
(+)Foregn Benefit obligations provision 0 0 7 35 44 17 21 25 28 27
(-)Fair Value gain on investment 0 0 9 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
(+)Profit From disposal of joint venture 0 0 0 32 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBT 388 457 692 1,332 2,158 2,964 3,976 4,896 5,987 7,265
EBT Growth% 18% 52% 92% 62% 37% 34% 23% 22% 21%

Taxes 131 109 163 311 544 667 895 1,102 1,347 1,635
Taxes % 34% 24% 24% 23% 25% 23% 34% 23% 22% 21%

Net Profit 258 348 529 1,020 1,614 2,297 3,081 3,794 4,640 5,630
Net Profit Growth % 35% 52% 93% 58% 42% 34% 23% 22% 21%

Stock Price 14 9 8 15 28.46 28.46 28.46 28.46 28.46 28.46

Outstanding Shares 363 363 363 363 700 700 700 700 700 700
Balance Sheet

Years 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Current Assets:

Inventories 295 315 526 981 1,867 2,015 2,730 3,395 4,176 5,088
Trade Receivables 204 107 26 80 106 378 512 637 784 955
Debtors and other debt balance - - 176 403 604 507 686 854 1,050 1,279
Due from related parties - - 16 62 54 59 80 100 123 150
Treasury bills 548 499 846 895 346 627 643 671 636 585
Cash and bank balances 154 215 160 494 1,010 1,136 2,108 3,076 4,200 5,445
Total Current Assets 1,201 1,136 1,751 2,916 3,986 4,723 6,760 8,734 10,969 13,502
Total Current Assets Growth % -5% 54% 66% 37% 18% 43% 29% 26% 23%

Non Current Assets

PP&E 1,994 2,196 2,166 2,543 3,372 4,420 5,853 7,603 9,716 12,249
Right of use 0 67 56 103 122 160 212 274 347 433
Intangible Assets 168 167 181 187 182 191 205 223 246 274
Investment In joint ventures 0 36 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Good Will 0 0 0 42 81 0 0 0 0 0
Total Non Current Assets 2,162 2,466 2,472 2,874 3,757 4,771 6,271 8,100 10,309 12,955
Total Non Current Assets Growth% 14% 0% 16% 31% 27% 31% 29% 27% 26%

Total Assets 3,364 3,602 4,223 5,790 7,743 9,494 13,031 16,834 21,277 26,457

Current Liabilites
Provisions 21 34 34 73 106 54 60 65 71 71
Bank overdraft 120 80 401 502 597 880 1,193 1,481 1,818 2,212
Years 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Trade and notes payables 502 540 380 632 960 1,875 2,540 3,159 3,884 4,733
Creditors and other credit balances - - 174 317 358 621 841 1,046 1,286 1,567
Current portion of loans 186 196 197 245 298 80 80 80 56 33
Deferred government grants - - 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 3
current income tax liabilities 63 30 31 199 389 142 158 184 214 217
Lease liabilites - 7 9 13 11 15 20 26 33 41
Total current liabilites 893 887 1,229 1,983 2,721 3,669 4,895 6,043 7,366 8,877
Total current liabilites Growth% -1% 39% 61% 37% 35% 33% 23% 22% 21%

Non Current liabilites

Term Loans 606 669 588 739 1129 209 147 79 30 0

Deffered government grants 0 9 10 17 17 11 13 13 14 14
Employee benefit obligations 12 20 24 33 55 29 32 35 37 38
Deferred Tax liabilites 168 174 206 195 240 197 202 208 208 211
Lease liabilites 0 63 55 105 133 128 170 219 278 346
Total non current liabilites 785 935 883 1089 1574 573 564 555 567 608
Total non current liabilites Growth% 19% -6% 23% 45% -64% -2% -2% 2% 7%

Total liabilites 1,678 1,822 2,112 3,073 4,295 4,242 5,459 6,598 7,933 9,486
Total liabilites Growth% 9% 16% 46% 40% -1% 29% 21% 20% 20%

Equity

Paid up capital 145 145 145 145 140 140 140 140 140 140
Legal reserve 78 79 79 79 73 115 154 190 232 282
Cumulative Transactions Reserve 0 1 2 42 51 24 30 37 36 32
Transactions with non controlling interest 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32
Tresury shares 0 23 0 161 0 0 0 0 0 0
Years 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Retained Earnings 1458 1609 1918 2688 3245 5029 7316 9955 13023 16596
Total Equity 1,649 1,779 2,111 2,676 3,374 5,228 7,548 10,216 13,327 16,954
Non controlling interest 36 1 1 41 74 24 24 20 17 17
Total Equity 1,686 1,779 2,112 2,717 3,448 5,252 7,572 10,236 13,344 16,971
Total Equity Growth%

Total Equity & Liabilites 3,364 3,602 4,223 5,790 7,743 9,494 13,031 16,834 21,277 26,457

Balance TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE

Cash Flow

Operating Activities:

Net Inocme 348 529 1020 1614 2297 3081 3794 4640 5630
Depreciation 193 183 208 256 317 416 551 715 914
Deferred tax liabilities 6 32 (11) 45 (44) 6 6 0 3

Inventories (20) (211) (455) (885) (148) (715) (665) (780) (912)
Trade Receivables 97 81 (53) (26) (273) (134) (125) (146) (171)
Debtors and other debt balance 0 (176) (227) (200) 97 (180) (167) (196) (229)
Due from related parties 0 (16) (46) 8 (5) (21) (20) (23) (27)

Provisions 13 (0) 39 33 (52) 6 5 6 (0)

Trade and notes payables 38 (160) 252 328 914 665 619 726 849
Creditors and other credit balances 0 174 143 41 263 220 205 240 281
Deferred government grants 0 4 (0) (1) (1) 0 1 (0) (0)
current income tax liabilities (33) 1 168 190 (247) 16 26 31 3
Cash FLow from Operating Activities 642 438 1037 1403 3119 3361 4229 5213 6340
Years 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Investing Activities

PP&E (395) (152) (585) (1085) (1365) (1849) (2300) (2829) (3447)
Right of use (67) 12 (47) (19) (38) (52) (62) (73) (86)
Intangible Assets 2 (14) (6) 5 (9) (14) (18) (23) (28)
Investment In joint ventures (36) (34) 70 0 0 0 0 0 0
Good Will 0 0 (42) (39) 81 0 0 0 0
Treasury bills 49 (347) (48) 548 (281) (16) (29) 35 52
Cash FLow from Investing Activities (447) (536) (658) (590) (1612) (1931) (2409) (2889) (3509)

Financing Activities

Term Loans 63 (81) 152 390 (920) (62) (68) (49) (30)
Deffered government grants 9 1 7 0 (7) 2 1 1 (1)
Employee benefit obligations 9 4 9 22 (26) 3 2 2 1
Lease liabilites (non current portion) 63 (7) 50 28 (5) 42 49 58 69
Bank overdraft (40) 321 101 95 283 313 288 337 394
Current portion of loans 10 1 48 53 (218) 0 0 (24) (23)
Lease liabilites(current portion) 7 1 4 (2) 4 5 6 7 8
Change in Debt 121 239 371 586 (888) 303 279 332 417
Change in Equity (254) (197) (415) (883) (493) (761) (1130) (1532) (2003)
Cash FLow from Financing Activities (133) 43 (44) (297) (1381) (458) (852) (1200) (1586)

Net Cash Flow 61 (55) 335 516 127 971 968 1124 1245

Beginning Cash 154 215 160 494 1010 1136 2108 3076 4200
Ending Cash 154 215 160 494 1010 1136 2108 3076 4200 5445

Balance 61 (55) 335 517 127 971 968 1124 1245

Years 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Ratios

Profitability Ratios
Gross Profit Margin 36% 40% 36% 37% 35% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38%
EBITDA Margin 14% 16% 16% 20% 20% 18% 18% 18% 18% 19%
EBIT Margin 11% 11% 13% 17% 18% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16%
EBT Margin 10% 11% 13% 17% 18% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15%
Net Profit Margin 6% 9% 10% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
ROA 8% 10% 13% 18% 21% 24% 24% 23% 22% 21%
ROE 15% 20% 25% 38% 47% 44% 41% 37% 35% 33%
ROI 47% 65% 58% 114% 466% 254% 234% 212% 198% 188%
ROIC 11% 13% 17% 27% 35% 42% 44% 42% 41% 40%
Sustainable Growth Rate

Efficiency Ratios
A/R Turnover 19.71X 37.64X 199.51X 96.13X 114.90X 49.30X 49.30X 49.30X 49.30X 49.30X
Inventory Turnover 8.75X 7.69X 6.39X 4.90X 4.21X 5.76X 5.77X 5.76X 5.75X 5.74X
A/P Turnover 5.14X 4.49X 8.86X 7.60X 8.19X 6.19X 6.20X 6.19X 6.18X 6.17X
Fixed Assets Turnover 2.02X 1.83X 2.42X 3.02X 3.60X 4.22X 4.32X 4.13X 3.98X 3.84X
Total Assets Turnover 1.20X 1.12X 1.24X 1.32X 1.57X 1.96X 1.94X 1.87X 1.82X 1.78X
DOH
A/R DOH 19 10 2 4 3 7 7 7 7 7
Inventory DOH 42 47 57 75 87 63 63 63 64 64
A/P DOH 71 81 41 48 45 59 59 59 59 59
CCC (11) (24) 18 30 45 12 12 12 12 12
Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio 1.35 1.28 1.42 1.47 1.47 1.29 1.38 1.45 1.49 1.52
Quick Ratio 1.01 0.92 0.84 0.74 0.54 0.58 0.67 0.73 0.76 0.79
Cash Ratio 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.70 0.50 0.48 0.56 0.62 0.66 0.68
Years 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Defensive Interval 96 88 86 88 55 51 58 62 65 66

Solvency Ratios
Debt/Equity 54% 57% 59% 59% 63% 25% 21% 18% 17% 16%
Debt/Assets 27% 28% 30% 28% 28% 14% 12% 11% 10% 10%
FLM 54% 57% 59% 59% 63% 25% 21% 18% 17% 16%
Interest Coverage 47.57X 4.62X 8.02X 12.01X 10.05X 13.56X 13.00X 12.71X 12.52X 12.43X

Valuation Ratios
EPS 0.71 0.96 1.46 2.81 2.31 3.28 4.40 5.42 6.63 8.04
BVPS 4.65 4.90 5.82 7.48 4.93 7.50 10.82 14.62 19.06 24.24
P/E 19.71X 9.40X 5.81X 5.32X 12.35X 8.67X 6.47X 5.25X 4.29X 3.54X
P/BVPS 3.01X 1.84X 1.46X 2.00X 5.78X 3.79X 2.63X 1.95X 1.49X 1.17X
DPS 0.42 0.38 0.43 0.55 1.29 0.73 1.13 1.65 2.25 2.94
Dividends Payout 59% 40% 30% 20% 56% 22% 26% 30% 34% 37%
Retention Ratio 41% 60% 70% 80% 44% 78% 74% 70% 66% 63%
EV/EBITDA 10.13X 6.45X 4.81X 4.22X 8.77X 5.89X 4.22X 3.25X 2.52X 1.96X

Altman Z-Score
Working Capital/Total Assets 0.09 0.07 0.12 0.16 0.16 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.17
RE/Total Assets 0.43 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.42 0.53 0.56 0.59 0.61 0.63
EBIT/Total Assets 0.13 0.12 0.16 0.23 0.27 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.30 0.29
Markrt Value/ BV Liabilities 3.03 1.79 1.46 1.77 4.64 4.70 3.65 3.02 2.51 2.10
Sales/ Total Assets 1.20 1.12 1.24 1.32 1.57 1.96 1.94 1.87 1.82 1.78
Z-Score 4.15 3.30 3.42 3.99 6.04 6.72 6.14 5.71 5.37 5.09
Financial Modeling For EFID.CA
Financial Statements 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Income Statement

Revenue 4,025 4,021 5,251 7,671 12,126 18,647 25,261 31,416 38,636 47,076
COGS 2,584 2,425 3,364 4,805 7,867 11,610 15,745 19,546 23,997 29,194
Gross Profit 1,441 1,596 1,887 2,866 4,259 7,037 9,516 11,871 14,639 17,882
SG&A 862 966 1,022 1,308 1,846 3,623 4,908 6,104 7,507 9,147
EBITDA 580 630 865 1,559 2,413 3,414 4,608 5,767 7,132 8,735
Depreciation 152 193 183 208 256 317 416 551 715 914 -
Amortization Lease - - 13 15 21 29 38 51 65 83
Amortization of Intangible - - - 6 8 4 5 5 5 6
EBIT 428 438 670 1,329 2,129 3,063 4,149 5,160 6,346 7,732
(+)Other Income 25 82 35 17 42 40 43 35 36 39
(-)Other Losses 55 42 - - - - 1 2 3 4
(-)Finance Cost 9 95 83 111 212 226 319 406 507 622
(-)Share of net loss of joint ventures - 2 6 5 - - 1 2 3 4
(+)Interest Income - 76 77 112 214 96 115 123 132 136
(-)Inventory write down provision - - 2 4 11 3 4 5 5 6
(-)Provisions - - 10 39 31 16 19 23 26 23
(-)Employee Benefit obligations Provision - - 3 12 19 7 8 10 11 11
(+)Foregn Benefit obligations provision - - 7 35 44 17 21 25 28 27
(-)Fair Value gain on investment - - 9 22 - - - - - -
(+)Profit From disposal of joint venture - - - 32 - - - - - -
EBT 388 457 692 1,332 2,158 2,964 3,976 4,896 5,987 7,265
Taxes 131 109 163 311 544 667 895 1,102 1,347 1,635
Net Profit 258 348 529 1,020 1,614 2,297 3,081 3,794 4,640 5,630
Balance Sheet 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Current Assets:

Inventories 295 315 526 981 1,867 2,015 2,730 3,395 4,176 5,088
Trade Receivables 204 107 26 80 106 378 512 637 784 955
Debtors and other debt balance - - 176 403 604 507 686 854 1,050 1,279
Due from related parties - - 16 62 54 59 80 100 123 150
Treasury bills 548 499 846 895 346 627 643 671 636 585
Cash and bank balances 154 215 160 494 1,010 1,136 2,108 3,076 4,200 5,445
Total Current Assets 1,201 1,136 1,751 2,916 3,986 4,723 6,760 8,734 10,969 13,502
Non Current Assets

PP&E 1,994 2,196 2,166 2,543 3,372 4,420 5,853 7,603 9,716 12,249
Right of use - 67 56 103 122 160 212 274 347 433
Intangible Assets 168 167 181 187 182 191 205 223 246 274
Investment In joint ventures - 36 70 - - - - - - -
Good Will - - - 42 81 - - - - -
Total Non Current Assets 2,162 2,466 2,472 2,874 3,757 4,771 6,271 8,100 10,309 12,955

Total Assets 3,364 3,602 4,223 5,790 7,743 9,494 13,031 16,834 21,277 26,457

Current Liabilites
Provisions 21 34 34 73 106 54 60 65 71 71
Bank overdraft 120 80 401 502 597 880 1,193 1,481 1,818 2,212
Trade and notes payables 502 540 380 632 960 1,875 2,540 3,159 3,884 4,733
Creditors and other credit balances - - 174 317 358 621 841 1,046 1,286 1,567
Current portion of loans 186 196 197 245 298 80 80 80 56 33
Deferred government grants - - 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 3
current income tax liabilities 63 30 31 199 389 142 158 184 214 217
Lease liabilites - 7 9 13 11 15 20 26 33 41
Total current liabilites 893 887 1,229 1,983 2,721 3,669 4,895 6,043 7,366 8,877
Balance Sheet 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
Non Current liabilites
Term Loans 606 669 588 739 1,129 209 147 79 30 -
Deffered government grants - 9 10 17 17 11 13 13 14 14
Employee benefit obligations 12 20 24 33 55 29 32 35 37 38
Deferred Tax liabilites 168 174 206 195 240 197 202 208 208 211
Lease liabilites - 63 55 105 133 128 170 219 278 346
Total non current liabilites 785 935 883 1,089 1,574 573 564 555 567 608
Total liabilites 1,678 1,822 2,112 3,073 4,295 4,242 5,459 6,598 7,933 9,486

Equity
Paid up capital 145 145 145 145 140 140 140 140 140 140
Legal reserve 78 79 79 79 73 115 154 190 232 282
Cumulative Transactions Reserve 0 1 2 42 51 24 30 37 36 32
Transactions with non controlling interest 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32
Tresury shares - 23 - 161 - - - - - -
Retained Earnings 1,458 1,609 1,918 2,688 3,245 5,029 7,316 9,955 13,023 16,596
Total Equity 1,649 1,779 2,111 2,676 3,374 5,228 7,548 10,216 13,327 16,954
Non controlling interest 36 1 1 41 74 24 24 20 17 17
Total Equity 1,686 1,779 2,112 2,717 3,448 5,252 7,572 10,236 13,344 16,971
Total Equity & Liabilites 3,364 3,602 4,224 5,790 7,743 9,494 13,031 16,834 21,277 26,457
 Common-Size Analysis
Vertical Analysis

Income Statement 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Revenue 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
COGS 64% 60% 64% 63% 65% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62%
Gross Profit 36% 40% 36% 37% 35% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38%
SG&A 21% 24% 19% 17% 15% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%
EBITDA 14% 16% 16% 20% 20% 18% 18% 18% 18% 19%
Depreciation 4% 5% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Amortization Lease 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Amortization of Intangible 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
EBIT 11% 11% 13% 17% 18% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16%
(+)Other Income 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(-)Other Losses 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(-)Finance Cost 0% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
(-)Share of net loss of joint ventures 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(+)Interest Income 0% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(-)Inventory write down provision 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(-)Provisions 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(-)Employee Benefit obligations Provision 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(+)Foregn Benefit obligations provision 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(-)Fair Value gain on investment 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(+)Profit From disposal of joint venture 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
EBT 10% 11% 13% 17% 18% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15%
Taxes 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3%
Net Profit 6% 9% 10% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
Balance Sheet 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Current Assets:

Inventories 9% 9% 12% 17% 24% 21% 21% 20% 20% 19%

Trade Receivables 6% 3% 1% 1% 1% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Debtors and other debt balance 0% 0% 4% 7% 8% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Due from related parties 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Treasury bills 16% 14% 20% 15% 4% 7% 5% 4% 3% 2%
Cash and bank balances 5% 6% 4% 9% 13% 12% 16% 18% 20% 21%
Total Current Assets 36% 32% 41% 50% 51% 50% 52% 52% 52% 51%
Non Current Assets
PP&E 59% 61% 51% 44% 44% 47% 45% 45% 46% 46%
Right of use 0% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Intangible Assets 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Investment In joint ventures 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Good Will 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total Non Current Assets 64% 68% 59% 50% 49% 50% 48% 48% 48% 49%

Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Current Liabilites
Provisions 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bank overdraft 4% 2% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8%
Trade and notes payables 15% 15% 9% 11% 12% 20% 19% 19% 18% 18%
Creditors and other credit balances 0% 0% 4% 5% 5% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Current portion of loans 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Deferred government grants 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
current income tax liabilities 2% 1% 1% 3% 5% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Lease liabilites 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total current liabilites 27% 25% 29% 34% 35% 39% 38% 36% 35% 34%
Non Current liabilites
Term Loans 18% 19% 14% 13% 15% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Deffered government grants 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Employee benefit obligations 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Deferred Tax liabilites 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lease liabilites 0% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Total non current liabilites 23% 26% 21% 19% 20% 6% 4% 3% 3% 2%
Total liabilites 50% 51% 50% 53% 55% 45% 42% 39% 37% 36%

Equity
Paid up capital 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Legal reserve 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Cumulative Transactions Reserve 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Transactions with non controlling interest 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Tresury shares 0% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Retained Earnings 43% 45% 45% 46% 42% 53% 56% 59% 61% 63%
Total Equity 49% 49% 50% 46% 44% 55% 58% 61% 63% 64%
Non controlling interest 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total Equity 50% 49% 50% 47% 45% 55% 58% 61% 63% 64%

Horizental Analysis

Income Statement 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Revenue 100% 100% 130% 191% 301% 463% 628% 780% 960% 1170%
COGS 100% 94% 130% 186% 304% 449% 609% 756% 929% 1130%
Gross Profit 100% 111% 131% 199% 295% 488% 660% 824% 1016% 1241%
SG&A 100% 112% 119% 152% 214% 420% 569% 708% 871% 1061%
EBITDA 100% 109% 149% 269% 416% 589% 795% 995% 1231% 1507%
Depreciation 100% 127% 120% 137% 168% 209% 274% 363% 471% 602%
Amortization Lease 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Amortization of Intangible 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
EBIT 100% 102% 157% 311% 498% 716% 970% 1206% 1484% 1808%
(+)Other Income 100% 334% 141% 69% 173% 163% 176% 145% 145% 161%
(-)Other Losses 100% 77% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 4% 5% 7%
(-)Finance Cost 100% 1054% 928% 1231% 2356% 2511% 3550% 4514% 5637% 6920%
(-)Share of net loss of joint ventures 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(+)Interest Income 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(-)Inventory write down provision 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(-)Provisions 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(-)Employee Benefit obligations Provision 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(+)Foregn Benefit obligations provision 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(-)Fair Value gain on investment 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
(+)Profit From disposal of joint venture 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
EBT 100% 118% 178% 343% 556% 763% 1024% 1261% 1542% 1871%
Taxes 100% 83% 125% 238% 416% 511% 685% 843% 1031% 1251%
Net Profit 100% 135% 205% 396% 626% 892% 1196% 1473% 1801% 2185%

Balance Sheet 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
Current Assets:
Inventories 100% 107% 178% 332% 632% 682% 924% 1149% 1413% 1722%
Trade Receivables 100% 52% 13% 39% 52% 185% 251% 312% 384% 468%
Debtors and other debt balance 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Due from related parties 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Treasury bills 100% 91% 154% 163% 63% 114% 117% 122% 116% 107%
Cash and bank balances 100% 140% 104% 322% 657% 740% 1372% 2003% 2734% 3545%
Total Current Assets 100% 95% 146% 243% 332% 393% 563% 727% 913% 1124%
Non Current Assets
PP&E 100% 110% 109% 128% 169% 222% 294% 381% 487% 614%
Right of use 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Intangible Assets 100% 99% 107% 111% 108% 114% 122% 133% 146% 163%
Investment In joint ventures 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Good Will 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total Non Current Assets 100% 114% 114% 133% 174% 221% 290% 375% 477% 599%
Total Assets 100% 107% 126% 172% 230% 282% 387% 500% 633% 787%
Balance Sheet 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
Current Liabilites
Provisions 100% 162% 160% 343% 498% 253% 283% 307% 337% 335%
Bank overdraft 100% 67% 334% 418% 497% 733% 993% 1233% 1514% 1842%
Trade and notes payables 100% 108% 76% 126% 191% 373% 506% 629% 773% 942%
Creditors and other credit balances 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current portion of loans 100% 105% 106% 132% 160% 43% 43% 43% 30% 18%
Deferred government grants 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
current income tax liabilities 100% 47% 48% 314% 615% 225% 250% 291% 339% 344%
Lease liabilites 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total current liabilites 100% 99% 138% 222% 305% 411% 548% 677% 825% 994%
Non Current liabilites
Term Loans 100% 110% 97% 122% 186% 35% 24% 13% 5% 0%
Deffered government grants 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Employee benefit obligations 100% 174% 208% 288% 475% 249% 279% 300% 318% 324%
Deferred Tax liabilites 100% 104% 123% 116% 143% 117% 121% 124% 124% 126%
Lease liabilites 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total non current liabilites 100% 119% 112% 139% 201% 73% 72% 71% 72% 77%
Total liabilites 100% 109% 126% 183% 256% 253% 325% 393% 473% 565%

Equity
Paid up capital 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97%
Legal reserve 100% 101% 101% 101% 93% 147% 197% 242% 297% 360%
Cumulative Transactions Reserve 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Transactions with non controlling interest 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Tresury shares 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Retained Earnings 100% 110% 132% 184% 222% 345% 502% 683% 893% 1138%
Total Equity 100% 108% 128% 162% 205% 317% 458% 619% 808% 1028%
Non controlling interest 100% 2% 2% 113% 204% 66% 65% 55% 46% 47%
Total Equity 100% 106% 125% 161% 205% 312% 449% 607% 792% 1007%
Financial Modeling For EFID.CA
2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Revenue Breakdown

Cakes:

Volume Packs(mn) 1,462 1,308 1,534 2,226 2,438 2,869 3,261 3,592 4,042 4,651
%Volume Growth -11% 17% 45% 10% 18% 14% 10% 13% 15%
Avg Price 1.21 1.31 1.46 1.70 2.47 3.30 4.00 4.57 5.05 5.39
%Avg Price Growth 8% 12% 17% 45% 33% 21% 14% 10% 7%
Value 1,772 1,710 2,239 3,789 6,033 9,462 13,035 16,423 20,409 25,081
%Value Growth -3% 31% 69% 59% 57% 38% 26% 24% 23%
Gross Profit 728 677 790 1,306 2,149 4,105 5,777 7,397 9,309 11,556

Bakery:

Volume Packs(mn) 767 722 787 754 910 1,028 1,132 1,217 1,342 1,519
%Volume Growth -6% 9% -4% 21% 13% 10% 7% 10% 13%
Avg Price 1.77 2.09 2.45 3.35 4.47 5.96 7.22 8.26 9.12 9.74
%Avg Price Growth 18% 17% 37% 33% 33% 21% 14% 10% 7%
Value 1,361 1,507 1,929 2,525 4,067 6,122 8,173 10,047 12,238 14,792
%Value Growth 11% 28% 31% 61% 51% 34% 23% 22% 21%
Gross Profit 455 518 618 917 1,226 1,779 2,290 2,729 3,239 3,828

Rusts:

Volume Packs(mn) 222 158 159 151 145 151 156 158 166 179
%Volume Growth -29% 1% -5% -4% 4% 3% 1% 5% 8%
Avg Price 1.78 1.82 1.90 2.65 3.76 5.01 6.07 6.95 7.67 8.19
%Avg Price Growth 3% 4% 39% 42% 33% 21% 14% 10% 7%
Value 394 288 302 399 545 758 947 1,098 1,272 1,470
%Value Growth -27% 5% 32% 36% 39% 25% 16% 16% 16%
Gross Profit 119 86 88 119 155 199 189 156 113 58
Years 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Wafers:

Volume Packs(mn) 204 213 351 354 415 482 543 593 664 760
%Volume Growth 4% 65% 1% 17% 16% 13% 9% 12% 15%
Avg Price 1.65 1.58 1.74 2.10 2.60 3.47 4.20 4.80 5.31 5.67
%Avg Price Growth -4% 10% 21% 24% 33% 21% 14% 10% 7%
Value 337 336 611 743 1,079 1,671 2,279 2,850 3,521 4,306
%Value Growth 0% 82% 22% 45% 55% 36% 25% 24% 22%
Gross Profit 98 86 172 252 355 445 619 785 981 1212
.
Candy:

Volume Packs(mn) 81 74 59 35 61 64 67 68 72 78
%Volume Growth -9% -20% -41% 74% 5% 4% 2% 6% 9%
Avg Price 1.91 2.13 2.57 5.03 5.04 6.72 8.15 9.32 10.29 10.99
%Avg Price Growth 11% 21% 96% 0% 33% 21% 14% 10% 7%
Value 155 158 152 176 308 432 543 634 739 859
%Value Growth 2% -4% 16% 75% 40% 26% 17% 17% 16%
Gross Profit 40 35 22 37 88 115 114 100 82 59

Biscuits:

Volume Packs(mn) 0 0 7 16 23 31 38 44 52 62
%Volume Growth 0% 0% 129% 44% 33% 23% 17% 18% 19%
Avg Price 0 0 2.05 2.43 3.48 4.64 5.63 6.44 7.11 7.59
%Avg Price Growth 0% 0% 19% 43% 33% 21% 14% 10% 7%
Value 0 14 39 80 142 213 284 369 469
%Value Growth 0% 0% 171% 106% 77% 50% 34% 30% 27%
Gross Profit 0 0 1 7 15 12 36 64 98 139

Others:

Value 5 22 4 0 15 60 72 80 89 99
%Value Growth 301% -82% -99% 71% 301% 20% 11% 11% 11%
Gross Profit 2 0 1 0 -13 32 34 33 31 28

Total Sales Volume 2,736 2,475 2,897 3,536 3,992 4,625 5,196 5,672 6,337 7,249
Total Sales Value 4,025 4,021 5,251 7,671 12,126 18,647 25,261 31,416 38,636 47,076
Years 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

COGS Breakdown

Cakes 1,045 1,033 1,450 2,483 3,883 5,357 7,258 9,026 11,100 13,525
%of Sales 29% 26% 26% 28% 32% 32% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29%
Bakery 907 989 1,311 1,608 2,840 4,343 5,884 7,317 8,999 10,965
%of Sales 23% 23% 25% 25% 21% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
Rusts 276 202 214 280 390 559 758 942 1,159 1,412
%of Sales 3% 7% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Wafers 239 250 438 491 724 1,226 1,660 2,065 2,539 3,094
%of Sales 7% 6% 6% 8% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Candy 115 122 130 139 220 317 429 534 657 800
%of Sales 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Biscuits 0 0 14 32 65 131 177 220 270 330
%of Sales 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Others 3 22 3 0 28 28 38 47 58 71
%of Sales 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total COGS 2,584 2,618 3,560 5,034 8,151 11,961 16,204 20,152 24,783 30,196

Key Assumptions

Total Sales of Market 1,825,357 1,962,176 2,121,981 2,982,345 3,967,985 4,745,911 5,283,522 5,881,123 6,544,799

Value of Cake 1,710 2,239 3,789 6,033 9,462 13,035 16,423 20,409 25,081
Market Share 0.09% 0.11% 0.18% 0.20% 0.24% 0.27% 0.31% 0.35% 0.38%
Growth Market Share 0.04% 0.02% 0.06% 0.02% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04%

Value of Bakery 1,507 1,929 2,525 4,067 6,122 8,173 10,047 12,238 14,792
Market Share 0.08% 0.10% 0.12% 0.14% 0.15% 0.17% 0.19% 0.21% 0.23%
Growth Market Share 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%

Value of Rusks 288 302 399 545 758 947 1,098 1,272 1,470
Market Share 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Growth Market Share 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Value of Wafers 336 611 743 1,079 1,671 2,279 2,850 3,521 4,306
Market Share 0.02% 0.03% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.05% 0.05% 0.06% 0.07%
Growth Market Share 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
Years 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
Value of Candy 158 152 176 308 432 543 634 739 859
Market Share 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
Growth Market Share 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Value of Biscuits 0 14 39 80 142 213 284 369 469

Market Share 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
Growth Market Share 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Value of Others 22 4 0 15 60 72 80 89 99
Market Share 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.0015% 0.0015% 0.0015% 0.0015% 0.0015%
Growth Market Share 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Egypt Inflation 33.30% 21.19% 14.39% 10.43% 6.81%

Financial Modeling For EFID.CA
Supporting Schedule 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Cost Analysis

COGS 2,584 2,425 3,364 4,805 7,867 11,610 15,745 19,546 23,997 29,194
SG&A 862 966 1,022 1,308 1,846 3,623 4,908 6,104 7,507 9,147
Depreciation 152 193 183 208 256 317 416 551 715 914
Amortization Lease - - 13 15 21 29 38 51 65 83
Amortization of Intangible - - - 6 8 4 5 5 5 6
Finance Cost 9 95 83 111 212 226 319 406 507 622
Taxes 131 109 163 311 544 667 895 1,102 1,347 1,635
Total Cost 3,737 3,787 4,828 6,764 10,753 16,477 22,326 27,764 34,144 41,600
GR% 1% 28% 40% 59% 53% 35% 24% 23% 22%

MIN 0 0 0 6 8 4 5 5 5 6
Average 534 541 690 966 1536 2354 3189 3966 4878 5943
MAX 2584 2425 3364 4805 7867 11610 15745 19546 23997 29194
MEDIAN 131 109 163 208 256 317 416 551 715 914

Investment Analysis

Treasury Bills 548 499 846 895 346 905 1,317 1,792 2,344 2,987
% Retained Earnings 18% 38% 31% 44% 33% 11% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
Investment in Joint ventures 0 36 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
% Retained Earnings
Total Investment 548 535 917 895 346 905 1,317 1,792 2,344 2,987
GR% -2% 71% -2% -61% 161% 45% 36% 31% 27%
Years 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Debt

Bank overdraft 120 80 401 502 597 880 1193 1481 1818 2212
Current portion of loans 186 196 197 245 298 80 80 80 56 33
Lease liabilites 0 7 9 13 11 15 20 26 33 41
Term Loans 606 669 588 739 1129 209 147 79 30 0
Lease liabilites 0 63 55 105 133 128 170 219 278 346
Total Debt 912 1,014 1,249 1,604 2,167 1,312 1,610 1,886 2,215 2,632
GR% 11% 23% 28% 35% -39% 23% 17% 17% 19%

NOPAT:
EBIT 428 438 670 1329 2129 3063 4149 5160 6346 7732
Tax Rate 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5%
NOPAT 332 339 519 1030 1650 2374 3216 3999 4918 5993
GR% 2% 53% 98% 60% 44% 35% 24% 23% 22%

Invested Capital:
Total Debt 912 1,014 1,249 1,604 2,167 1,312 1,610 1,886 2,215 2,632
Total Equity 1,686 1,779 2,112 2,717 3,448 5,252 7,572 10,236 13,344 16,971
Cash and bank balances 154 215 160 494 1,010 1,136 2,108 3,076 4,200 5,445
Invested Capital 2,444 2,579 3,201 3,826 4,605 5,428 7,074 9,045 11,359 14,158
GR% 6% 24% 20% 20% 18% 30% 28% 26% 25%

Dividends
Dividends 151 139 156 200 900 512 794 1,155 1,572 2,057
GR% -8% 12% 28% 350% -43% 55% 45% 36% 31%
Years 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Additional

Book Value
Total Assets 3,364 3,602 4,223 5,790 7,743 9,494 13,031 16,834 21,277 26,457
Total Liabilities 1,678 1,822 2,112 3,073 4,295 4,242 5,459 6,598 7,933 9,486
Book Value 1,686 1,779 2,112 2,717 3,448 5,252 7,572 10,236 13,344 16,971
GR% 6% 19% 29% 27% 52% 44% 35% 30% 27%

Enterprise Value
Market Cap 5,078 3,267 3,075 5,430 19,922 19,922 19,922 19,922 19,922 19,922
Total Debt 912 1,014 1,249 1,604 2,167 1,312 1,610 1,886 2,215 2,632
Minority Interest 36 1 1 41 74 24 24 20 17 17
Cash 154 215 160 494 1,010 1,136 2,108 3,076 4,200 5,445
EV 5,872 4,067 4,165 6,581 21,154 20,122 19,448 18,751 17,954 17,126
GR% -31% 2% 58% 221% -5% -3% -4% -4% -5%

Supporting Schedule

Sales 4,025 4,021 5,251 7,671 12,126 18,647 25,261 31,416 38,636 47,076

COGS 2,584 2,618 3,560 5,034 8,151 11,961 16,204 20,152 24,783 30,196

SG&A 862 966 1,022 1,308 1,846 3,623 4,908 6,104 7,507 9,147
% of Sales 19% 21% 24% 19% 17% 15% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%

PPE
Beginning PPE 1,994 2,196 2,166 2,543 3,372 4,420 5,853 7,603 9,716
Depreciation 193 183 208 256 317 416 551 715 914
Capex 395 152 585 1,085 1,365 1,849 2,300 2,829 3,447
Ending PPE 1,994 2,196 2,166 2,543 3,372 4,420 5,853 7,603 9,716 12,249

Dep % of Beg PPE 9% 10% 8% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

Capex % of Sales 7% 10% 3% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Intangible Assets
Beginning Balance 170 168 167 181 187 182 191 205 223 246
Transfer from PUC 0 0 1 12 0 0 0 0 0 0
Additions during the year 1 1 15 0 2 13 18 22 27 33
Amortization for the year 2 3 2 6 8 4 5 5 5 6
Ending Balance 168 167 181 187 182 191 205 223 246 274

Additions % of sales 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Amortization % of 2% 1% 2% 1% 3% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Beg Intangible

Right of Use
Beginning Balance 0 34 68 56 103 123 160 212 274 347
Acquisition Through Bussiness 0 0 0 21 2 0 0 0 0 0
Additions during the year 0 42 1 37 27 67 90 112 138 168
Amortization for the year 0 10 13 15 21 29 38 51 65 83
Disposal During the Year 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
Translation of Foreign operations 0 1 0 4 13 0 0 0 0 0
Ending Balance - 68 56 103 123 160 212 274 347 433

Additions % of sales 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Amortization % 24% 0% 29% 19% 27% 20% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24%
of Right of use

Lease Liability
Total Lease 0 70 64 118 144 143 190 245 310 387
% of Right of use 89% 0% 103% 113% 114% 117% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89%

Lease Liability ST 0 7 9 13 11 15 20 26 33 41
% of Total lease 11% 0% 10% 14% 11% 8% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%

Lease Liability LT 0 63 55 105 133 128 170 219 278 346

A/R - A/P - Inv:
Trade Receivables 204 107 26 80 106 378 512 637 784 955
A/R DOH 7 19 10 2 4 3 7 7 7 7 7

Inventory 295 315 526 981 1867 2015 2730 3395 4176 5088
Inventory DOH 61 42 47 57 75 87 63 63 63 64 64

Trade Payables 502 540 380 632 960 1875 2540 3159 3884 4733
A/P DOH 57 71 81 41 48 45 59 59 59 59 59

Debtors and other debt balance 0 0 176 403 604 507 686 854 1,050 1,279
DOH 10 0 0 12 19 18 18 18 18 18 18

Due from related parties 0 0 16 62 54 59 80 100 123 150

DOH 1 0 0 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 2

Creditors and other credit balances 0 0 174 317 358 621 841 1,046 1,286 1,567
DOH 19 0 0 18 23 16 19 19 19 19 19

Working Capital:
Total Current Assets 1201 1136 1751 2916 3986 4723 6760 8734 10969 13502
Total Current Liabilities 893 887 1229 1983 2721 3669 4895 6043 7366 8877
Net Working Capital 309 249 522 932 1266 1055 1865 2691 3603 4625
Change NWC -60 274 410 333 -211 811 825 912 1022

Retained Earnings:
Beginning RE 1,458 1,609 1,918 2,688 3,245 5,029 7,316 9,955 13,023
Net Income 348 529 1,020 1,614 2,297 3,081 3,794 4,640 5,630
Dividends 139 156 200 900 512 794 1,155 1,572 2,057
Ending RE 1,458 1,609 1,918 2,688 3,245 5,029 7,316 9,955 13,023 16,596

Dividends % of Beg RE 16% 10% 10% 10% 33% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16%
Financial Modeling For EFID.CA
Loans 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Overdraft

Bank Overdraft 120 80 401 502 597 880 1,193 1,481 1,818 2,212
OVD % of COGS 8% 5% 3% 12% 10% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

Interest 249 337 418 514 625

OVD 28%

loans Run Off

Eighth loan:

Loans Amount EG MN 96
Interest Rate % 8%
Margin % 0.5%
Interest Rate % 8.5%

Maturity 5

Period 0 1 2 3 4 5
Beginning Balance 96 96 80 62 43 22
Payment 24 24 24 24 24
Principal 16 18 19 21 22
Interest Payment 8 8 7 5 4 2
Ending Balance 96 80 62 43 22 0
Years 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Ninth loan:

Loans Amount EG MN 90
Interest Rate % 8%
Margin % 0.5%
Interest Rate % 8.5%

Maturity 5

Period 0 1 2 3 4 5
Beginning Balance 90 90 75 58 40 21
Payment 23 23 23 23 23
Principal 15 16 18 19 21
Interest Payment 8 8 6 5 3 2
Ending Balance 90 75 58 40 21 0

Tenth loan:

Loans Amount EG MN 150

Interest Rate % 8%
Margin % 0.5%
Interest Rate % 8.5%

Maturity 6
Years 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Period 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Beginning Balance 150 150 130 108 84 58 30
Payment 33 33 33 33 33 33
Principal 20 22 24 26 28 30
Interest Payment 13 13 11 9 7 5 3
Ending Balance 150 130 108 84 58 30 0

Loan Summary:
Beginning Balance 96 336 320 267 209 147 79 30
Payment 0 24 80 80 80 80 56 33
Principal 0 16 53 57 62 68 49 30
Interest Payment 8 29 27 23 18 12 7 3
Ending Balance 96 320 267 209 147 79 30 0
Financial Modeling For EFID.CA
DCF 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Current share price 14 9 8 15 28.46 28.46 28.46 28.46 28.46 28.46

Number of shares outstanding 363 363 363 363 700 700 700 700 700 700
Market Capitalization 5,078 3,267 3,075 5,430 19,922 19,922 19,922 19,922 19,922 19,922

Capital Structure
Total Debt 912 1,014 1,249 1,604 2,167 1,312 1,610 1,886 2,215 2,632
Market Cap 5,078 3,267 3,075 5,430 19,922 19,922 19,922 19,922 19,922 19,922
Total Capital 5,989 4,281 4,324 7,034 22,089 21,234 21,532 21,808 22,137 22,554

Weight of Debt 15% 24% 29% 23% 10% 6% 7% 9% 10% 12%

Weight of Equity 85% 76% 71% 77% 90% 94% 93% 91% 90% 88%
Total Capital 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Cost of Debt
Pre Tax cost of Debt 17% 20% 22% 23% 24%
Tax Rate 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5%
Post Tax Cost of Debt 13% 15% 17% 18% 18%

Cost of Equity
Adjusted Risk Free Rate 23.69% 23.69% 23.69% 23.69% 23.69%
Equity Risk Premium 11.40% 11.40% 11.40% 11.40% 11.40%
Levered Beta 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25
Cost of Equity 37.94% 37.94% 37.94% 37.94% 37.94%

Weighted Average cost of capital

Debt
Cost 13% 15% 17% 18% 18%
Weight 6% 7% 9% 10% 12%
Equity
Cost 38% 38% 38% 38% 38%
Weight 94% 93% 91% 90% 88%
WAAC 36% 36% 36% 36% 36%

Terminal Growth Rate 5.00% 4.08% 5.14% 5.20% 5.61%

Years 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F

Calculation of PV of FCFF

NOPAT 2,374 3,216 3,999 4,918 5,993

D&A 317 416 551 715 914
Capex 1,365 1,849 2,300 2,829 3,447
Change NWC (211) 811 825 912 1,022
Free Cash Flow to the fIrm 1,537 971 1,425 1,893 2,438
Terminal Value 8,571
PV of FCFF including TV 1,537 971 1,425 1,893 11,009
Discount Period 1 2 3 4 5
PV of FCFF 1,126 523 565 555 2,397

Intrinsic Value Market Value

Firm Value 5,166 Market Cap 19,922 Market Price 28.46
Cash 5,445 Debt 2,632 Target Price 11.38
Minority Interest 17 Minority Interest 17
Debt 2,632 Cash 5,445 Downside Potential -60%
Equity Value 7,963 Enterprice Value 17,126

Outstanding Shares 700

Equity Value/Share 11.38 EV / Share 24.47

Sensitivity Analysis

Terminal WACC
5,166 34% 35% 36% 37% 38%
Terminal 3% 5,209 5,063 4,975 4,805 4,690
Growth 4% 5,290 5,137 5,044 4,867 4,747
Rate 5.61% 5,433 5,267 5,166 4,974 4,845
6% 5,470 5,300 5,198 5,002 4,870
7% 5,570 5,391 5,282 5,076 4,938
Comparable Analysis

Market Data Financials Valuation

Share Number Market Equity Total Enterprice

Company Name Price of Shares Cap Value Debt Value Revenue EBITDA Net Income EV/EBITDA EV/Revenue P/E

Edita(EFID) 28.46 700 19,922 18,986 2,167 21,154 12,126 2,413 1,614 8.77X 1.74X 12.35X
Domty(DOMT) 27 283 7,630 7,108 1,580 8,688 7,504 873 454 9.95X 1.16X 16.79X
Juhayna(JUFO) 32.01 941 30,134 29,042 3,617 32,659 16,128 1,902 1,021 17.17X 2.02X 29.50X

Debt Minority Equity

Companies 2023A Interest 2023A Beta

Domty 1,580 0.01 1,301 0.62

Juhayna 3,617 1.44 4,250 0.33

Cash Revenue COGS EBITDA Net Profit EPS

Domty 523 7504 5818 873 454 1.61
Juhayna 1094 16128 11904 1902 1021 1.09
Year weight Year Sales Sales Growth
1 2014A 1,919
2 2015A 2,225 16% SUMMARY OUTPUT
3 2016A 2,503 12%
4 2017A 3,044 22% Regression Statistics
5 2018A 3,776 24% Multiple R 0.9
6 2019A 4,025 7% R Square 0.7
7 2020A 4,021 0% Adjusted R Square 0.7
8 2021A 5,251 31% Standard Error 1660.3
9 2022A 7,671 46% Observations 10.0
10 2023A 12,126 58%
11 2024F 9,553 -21% ANOVA
12 2025F 10,443 9% df SS MS F Significance F
13 2026F 11,334 9% Regression 1 65397611 65397611 24 0
14 2027F 12,224 8% Residual 8 22053756 2756720
15 2028F 13,114 7% Total 9 87451367

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept -240.7 1134.2 -0.2 0.8 -2856.2 2374.9 -2856.2 2374.9
X Variable 1 890.3 182.8 4.9 0.0 468.8 1311.9 468.8 1311.9

Beta EFID

EFID Returns EFID Returns

Date Monthly Price Monthly Return Date Monthly Price Monthly Return
12/1/2023 31.18 12/1/2023 24,894.26
11/1/2023 29.5 -5% 11/1/2023 24,735.39 -1%
10/1/2023 26.99 -9% 10/1/2023 22,550.65 -9% SUMMARY OUTPUT
9/1/2023 20.22 -25% 9/1/2023 20,174.28 -11%
8/1/2023 21.08 4% 8/1/2023 18,873.82 -6% Regression Statistics
7/1/2023 18.89 -10% 7/1/2023 17,595.92 -7% Multiple R 0.76
6/1/2023 18.3 -3% 6/1/2023 17,665.29 0% R Square 0.58
5/1/2023 18.83 3% 5/1/2023 17,495.77 -1% Adjusted R Square 0.58
4/1/2023 15.97 -15% 4/1/2023 17,667.74 1% Standard Error 0.08
3/1/2023 14.53 -9% 3/1/2023 16,418.53 -7% Observations 59.00
2/1/2023 16.45 13% 2/1/2023 17,002.08 4%
1/1/2023 14.96 -9% 1/1/2023 16,446.38 -3% ANOVA
12/1/2022 13.89 -7% 12/1/2022 14,598.53 -11% df SS MS F Significance F
11/1/2022 12.48 -10% 11/1/2022 13,259.26 -9% Regression 1 0.51 0.51 79.55 0.00
10/1/2022 10.15 -19% 10/1/2022 11,372.79 -14% Residual 57 0.36 0.01
9/1/2022 9.8 -3% 9/1/2022 9,827.46 -14% Total 58 0.87
8/1/2022 9.47 -3% 8/1/2022 9,998.61 2%
7/1/2022 8.08 -15% 7/1/2022 9,467.08 -5% Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
6/1/2022 7.21 -11% 6/1/2022 9,225.61 -3% Intercept 0.00 0.01 0.21 0.84 -0.02 0.02 -0.02 0.02
5/1/2022 7.69 7% 5/1/2022 10,150.05 10% X Variable 1 1.25 0.14 8.92 0.00 0.97 1.53 0.97 1.53
4/1/2022 8 4% 4/1/2022 11,047.70 9%
3/1/2022 7.51 -6% 3/1/2022 11,238.48 2%
2/1/2022 7.48 0% 2/1/2022 11,138.86 -1%
1/1/2022 8 7% 1/1/2022 11,490.45 3%
12/1/2021 8.47 6% 12/1/2021 11,949.18 4%
11/1/2021 7.56 -11% 11/1/2021 11,395.60 -5%
10/1/2021 6.99 -8% 10/1/2021 11,420.19 0%
9/1/2021 7 0% 9/1/2021 10,517.03 -8%
8/1/2021 7.65 9% 8/1/2021 11,143.80 6%
7/1/2021 7.7 1% 7/1/2021 10,742.23 -4%
 6/1/2021 8.14 6% 6/1/2021 10,256.62 -5%
5/1/2021 7.59 -7% 5/1/2021 10,309.06 1%
4/1/2021 7.37 -3% 4/1/2021 10,475.26 2%
3/1/2021 8.49 15% 3/1/2021 10,568.37 1%
2/1/2021 9 6% 2/1/2021 11,525.02 9%
1/1/2021 9 0% 1/1/2021 11,546.15 0%
12/1/2020 8.9 -1% 12/1/2020 10,845.26 -6%
11/1/2020 9.56 7% 11/1/2020 10,943.35 1%
10/1/2020 9.03 -6% 10/1/2020 10,515.25 -4%
9/1/2020 9.28 3% 9/1/2020 10,989.27 5%
8/1/2020 10.86 17% 8/1/2020 11,365.99 3%
7/1/2020 9.3 -14% 7/1/2020 10,599.46 -7%
6/1/2020 9.9 6% 6/1/2020 10,764.59 2%
5/1/2020 9.04 -9% 5/1/2020 10,220.14 -5%
4/1/2020 10.05 11% 4/1/2020 10,554.04 3%
3/1/2020 8.62 -14% 3/1/2020 9,593.94 -9%
2/1/2020 13.95 62% 2/1/2020 13,008.94 36%
1/1/2020 14 0% 1/1/2020 13,918.84 7%
12/1/2019 14.98 7% 12/1/2019 13,961.56 0%
11/1/2019 14.73 -2% 11/1/2019 13,849.46 -1%
10/1/2019 15.5 5% 10/1/2019 14,558.02 5%
9/1/2019 16.99 10% 9/1/2019 14,257.75 -2%
8/1/2019 17.95 6% 8/1/2019 14,835.36 4%
7/1/2019 19 6% 7/1/2019 13,392.47 -10%
6/1/2019 20.09 6% 6/1/2019 14,100.74 5%
5/1/2019 20 0% 5/1/2019 13,771.31 -2%
4/1/2019 20 0% 4/1/2019 14,920.15 8%
3/1/2019 19.96 0% 3/1/2019 14,737.88 -1%
2/1/2019 17.6 -12% 2/1/2019 14,803.97 0%
1/1/2019 14.25 -19% 1/1/2019 14,126.68 -5%