Thesis
Thesis
Introduction
2. Literature review
2.1 Modigliani & Miller theorem
One of the most significant theorems in the corporate finance world is developed by
Modigliani and Miller, which is widely known as M&M Theorem (1958). This popular
theory is the first study on the relationship between capital structure and business market
value, laying the foundation for many other later theories (Stern & Chew, 2003). Through
evaluating the market value of a firm, the profitability can be assessed since a high market
value implies a profitable business. The hypothesis of Modigliani Miller's theorem depends
on the leverage level of two enterprises. While the levered (L) implies that it depends entirely
on equity, the unlevered's capital (U) consists of both debt and equity. There are two versions
of M&M theory, which are based on different assumptions about the market’s condition.
The first version was developed in 1958 with the assumptions of a perfectly efficient market,
no taxes, no bankruptcy cost and symmetric information. Under this hypothesised market,
Modigliani & Miller concluded that the capital structure has no effect on the firm
performance, in other words, its market value is based on its earning potential and the risk of
underlying assets. Pan (2012) states that the M&M theory equation can be written as follows:
Where V represents the value of the levered firm, whereas V represents the value of the
L U
unlevered firm.
The assumption of a perfectly competitive market faces a number of objections from critics
since they see that the real world is differ from the ideal world developed in M&M
propositions (Gifford, 1998). Due to the limitations in the assumptions of the first theory
version, Modigliani & Miller introduced an updated version for their original theory, known
as M&M2 (1963) in which the existence of tax is taken into consideration. Due to the effect
of the tax shield, the cost of capital (WACC) decreases, therefore, the firm's value increases.
Under a market with imperfection, firms can benefit from the inclusion of debt in their capital
structure, therefore, they are likely to take on more leverage. In contrast to the conclusion of
the first M&M theory, in this version, Modigliani & Miller demonstrate that the value and
performance of the firm increase as the leverage increases, which implies that there is a
positive correlation between the capital structure and the firm performance.
Although the Modigliani-Miller (M&M) theory started with perfect market assumptions, it
has inspired years of research in economics and finance. Scholars have delved into how real-
world factors such as transaction costs, information imperfection, taxes, and regulations
impact how businesses perform. This ongoing exploration shows a keen interest in
understanding how financial decisions intersect with real market complexities, aiming to
offer deeper insights into corporate behaviors and outcomes.
Retained Debt
Equity
earnings
Pecking order theory is developed based on the foundation set by the M&M theory and the
trade-off theory. In 1984, Stewart Myers and Nicolas Majluf proposed the pecking order
theory based on the idea that when considering funding sources, managers adhere to a
hierarchy. As stated by Frank and Goyal (2009), the main underlying concept used to develop
the pecking order theory is asymmetric information between company managers and external
parties. The concept of information asymmetry implies that firm managers are better
informed about the company’s performance, future plan, prospects and risk compared to
shareholders or debt holders. As a result, external users require a larger return in order to
offset the risk they are facing and make up for information asymmetry.
Within the framework of the pecking order, companies should prioritise internal sources
since they have the lowest information asymmetry costs, followed by debt and equity.
Mentioned by Lemmon & Zender (2010), internal finance, or retained earnings financing, is
provided directly by the business which helps reduce information asymmetry between parties.
Therefore, internal financing is the most affordable and practical kind of funding. When a
business finances its own operations by an internal finance source, it might be a signal
indicating that the firm is doing well because its earnings are large enough to support both
ongoing operations and future expansion. Besides, managers do not expect to lose their
control over businesses, according to research by Hamilton and Fox (1998). This is also the
reason why managers typically prioritize financing their projects with available retained
earnings rather than accepting additional shareholders. When it is not possible to utilize the
retained earnings, the issuance of debt is taken into account. Managers who believe that their
firm is worth more than its current value and their stock price are cheap corresponding to
future prospects will choose debt over equity. In addition, since debt is less risky than equity,
to reduce the cost of capital, companies prioritize debt financing. External equity as predicted
by pecking order theory is chosen as a last option (Huang and Ritter, 2009; Bistrova, 2011).
In case businesses issue new shares to raise capital, it might be an indication that firms
believe their own stock is overpriced. External investors are always conscious about the level
of debt and equity within a firm. Explained by Myers and Majluf (1984), if a company
decides to issue equity, a rational investor will be alerted and re-value the stock price.
The theory put emphasis on the choice between three main financing resources. As can be
concluded from pecking order theory by Boadi et al (2015), high-performing companies are
likely to finance their operation and activities by retained earnings and fewer debts. Many
other scholars, such as Berger and Bonaccorsi di Patti (2006) and Fosu (2013), have further
verified the trade-off theory that there is a positive relationship between firm performance
and the level of leverage.
3. Hypothesis development
3.1 Conceptual Framework
The graph below demonstrates the variables used in the research and how these variables are
related to each other.
The figure above is designed based on the predictive validity framework by Libby et al
(2002) to construct careful research designs and hypotheses. This model provides a useful
description of the hypothesis testing process, and focuses our attention on the key
determinants of the internal and external validity of a research design ( Robert Libby, Robert
Bloomfield, Mark W Nelson, 2002)
3.2 Hypothesis
Many studies on the effect of funding structure have been carried out since the findings of
Modigliani and Miller (1958) were published. Despite decades of investigation, the
correlation between capital structure and business performance continues to spark
considerable debate and scrutiny, primarily due to the inconsistent nature of research
findings. This paper contributes to untangle this puzzle, hoping to shed more light on how
financial decisions shape the way companies operate and succeed in today's world. Hence,
three distinct hypotheses are formulated for this paper research.
4. Methodology
4.1 Measurements
4.1.1. Dependent variables (ROA, ROIC)
The ability of a business to produce earnings higher than its costs is known as profitability. It
is an essential component of financial performance that shows how well a business is running
its operations and using its resources to produce profits for its investors and shareholders
(Van, 2005). Managers and shareholders put their focus on profitability metrics since it is a
key determinant of company's strategy and policies. Financial indicators such as net income,
gross profit margin, operational profit margin, return on invested capital (ROIC), return on
equity (ROE), and return on assets (ROA) can all be used to evaluate profitability
(Rutkowska-Ziarko, A., 2015). Among these financial ratio, ROA and ROIC are two
essential metrics for assessing profit capacity. While ROA is a valuable indicator of asset
efficiency and profitability, ROIC provides a deeper understanding by incorporating the cost
of capital.
4.1.1.1. Return on assets (ROA)
According to Jewell, J. J., & Mankin, J. A. (2011), return on assets (ROA) is one of the most
widely used and practical to evaluate a firm’s financial position, performance, and future
prospects. High level of profitability is shown by a high value of ROA, which shows that the
business is making more money per dollar of assets. Investors, analysts, and managers
frequently use return on assets (ROA) to assess a company's profitability in relation to its
asset base and compare it to other businesses in the same industry. It helps the evaluation
process of management's ability to deploy assets and create value for shareholders. However,
it is crucial to understand ROA in the context of industry standards, capital intensity, and
business models since variances in these elements might affect how ROA is interpreted and
what effect it has on profitability.
The combination of securities and funding sources that firms utilize to fund actual
investments is known as their capital structure (Stewart C. Myers, 2001). The funding
structure represents how a company chooses to raise financial resources to support its
activities and strike the balance between ownership and debt obligations. A business can
optimize its capital structure to minimize expenses, reduce risks to the finances, and
maximize shareholder value. To assess a company's capital structure and financial health,
debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio, interest coverage ratio, and debt-to-tangible assets ratio are three
key financial metrics.
A mixture of equity and debt that a company uses to fund its operations is known as its
capital structure (Shubita & Alsawalhah, 2012). The most vital ratio used to evaluate
financial leverage is the debt-to-equity ratio (D/E). It calculates the percentage of debt
funding a business receives in comparison to its equity (Nissim & Penman, 2001).. Given the
company's increased reliance on debt financing, a high D/E ratio is indicative of rising
financial leverage. Higher leverage can enhance equity returns, but it also raises financial risk
because of debt commitments and interest payments. On the other hand, a low debt-to-equity
ratio (D/E) indicates a more conservative capital structure. The D/E ratio is a tool used by
analysts and investors to evaluate a company's capacity to pay off debt, control financial risk,
and produce profits for owners.
Trade-off theory suggests that the increase of debt in capital structure leads to the rise of
bankruptcy’s cost as a company takes on more debt, the likelihood of bankruptcy may
increase due to the burden of servicing debt obligations. An essential financial indicator for
assessing a company's capacity to pay interest on outstanding debt is the interest coverage
ratio. The relation between capital structure and interest coverage is studied by many
researchers, such as Thompson (1972); and Eriotis, Vasiliou and Ventoura-Neokosmidi
(2007). A high interest coverage ratio suggests less financial risk because the business makes
excessive operational income to comfortably pay its interest. On the other hand, a lower
interest coverage ratio could be a warning of increased financial risk and issues for paying
interest. The interest coverage ratio is a common tool used by investors and lenders to
evaluate a company's solvency, liquidity, and debt servicing capacity. A strong interest
coverage ratio not only reflects the company's ability to manage its debt obligations
effectively but also provides assurance to stakeholders regarding its financial stability and
resilience.
The debt-to-tangible asset ratio is also an important financial metric that provides valuable
insights into a company's capital structure, leverage, and financial risk. It is founded that
debt/tangible assets ratio is associated with capital structure and overall business performance
(Xu, 2020). Tangible assets are physical assets such as property, plant, and equipment. Unlike
intangible assets, such as goodwill, patent and brand recognition, tangible assets are easy to
measure and monitor. As stated by Hall (2012), fixed assets are used to attract more debts
since this type of assets are liquid and play a role as collaterals for creditors in the event of
bankruptcy. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate the relationship between capital structure
and tangible assets. According to Booth, Aivazian, Demirgüç-Kunt, and Maksimovic (2001),
there exists an inverse relationship between the ratio of tangible assets and the creditor's
financial risk. The risk of default would be lower when the proportion of physical assets was
higher, and vice versa. Total Debt to Tangible Assets (TDTA), which is calculated by total
debt over tangible assets, is utilized in this study to reflect the capital structure.
According to Gill, Biger & Mathur (2011), control variables such as firm size and sales
growth should be included as these factors play as determinants of firm’s profitability. This
research incorporates firm size as control variable since it is recognized to have an impact on
the firm's performance, therefore support the investigation. As stated by Negasa (2016), a
significant positive correlation exists between firm’s size and profitability. Large companies
are typically more profitable than smaller firms due to economies of scale, larger market
shares, and better brand recognition. In fact, large companies can boost their operational
efficiency and profit margins by spreading fixed costs over a wider revenue base. In addition,
owing to their scale and creditworthiness, larger businesses are able to obtain debt financing
more easily and at lower interest rates, which lowers the cost of debt and boosts profitability
even more. Conversely, due to smaller operational scope and limited access to financial
resources, smaller firms frequently struggle to realize economies of scale, which makes it
difficult for them to negotiate favorable borrowing terms. All of these factors can seriously
impede their ability to increase profitability and competitiveness in the market. Therefore, in
this study, the natural logarithm of revenue is used as a proxy for firm size (Gill et al., 2011)
In order to have better understanding about the capital structure and profitability among
industries, this research includes industry dummy variable (INDUM) in the regression. The
incorporation of a dummy variable that represents different industries into the regression
analysis allows us to account for industry-specific factors that could potentially confound the
correlation between capital structure and profitability. Mentioned by Jay et al., (2014), firm
returns are different among industry. For instance, manufacturing companies often encounter
unique challenges and opportunities, namely fluctuations in inputs, complexities in supply
chain or regulation, which have an immediate impact on their bottom line. The effects of
manufacturing-related factors on capital structure and profitability can be isolated and
analyzed by adding a dummy variable to the regression analysis that represents the
manufacturing industry.
4.2. Method
To investigate the relationship between capital structure and profitability, in this study,
empirical regression models are constructed using panel data analysis. In econometrics
analysis, panel data is advantageous by offering improvements in the control over individual-
specific features, capturing dynamics over time, taking into account correlation within the
data, and allowing model specification flexibility (Moffatt, 2018). This type of data allows
researchers to better understand how variables change over time, conduct more accurate and
efficient analyses, and tackle challenging research issues that require incorporating together
individual and time effects. Panel data regression model is given as follows:
Where:
t = time dimension
α = constant number
A significance level of 0.05 is used to assess the P-value of the Hausman Test in order to
determine which model—the fixed effects model or the random effects model—is superior. If
the P-value is more than 0.05, the random effects model is accepted. In other words, the fixed
effects model should be used and the null hypothesis rejected when the P-value is less than
0.05.
4.2.3. Stationary
A typical assumption in many time series statistical models is the stationarity of the data
(Gozgor, 2011). Stationarity refers to the property of a time series variable where its
statistical properties, such as mean and variance, remain constant over time. Spurious
regression findings can arise when time series data are subjected to non-stationary, which can
result in inaccurate inference and unreliable parameter values. For accurate and insightful
findings, it is crucial to guarantee that all of the variables employed in the regression model—
both the independent and dependent variables—are stationary. Prior to performing regression
analysis, methods such as first differencing or unit root tests - the Augmented Dickey-Fuller
(ADF) test are frequently used to evaluate stationarity. Researchers can get more reliable
estimates and provide more accurate interpretations of the relationships between variables
across time by guaranteeing stationarity in regression models.
Model 1:
Model 2:
In these two models, β0 is the intercept of regression line with the y-axis, whereas β1 to β3 are
the coefficient of independent variables. The control variable’s coefficient is β 4 and that of
dummy variable is β5.
5. Data
In this study, the main purpose is to examine the correlation between capital structure and
firm’s performance of listed companies on London Stock Exchange (LSE) market. The data
is collected from audited reports which ensures the reliability and credibility of the financial
information. Besides, the companies are classified between non-manufacturing and
manufacturing depends on their main activities and operation. The reason for this
classification lies behind the fact that manufacturing companies have represented a
significant portion of the companies listed on the LSE. In addition, firms operating in
industrial sectors are likely to have a higher level of debt compared to other sectors.
The sample comprises 118 companies that are listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE)
over the period from 2017 to 2022. These companies span across 11 diverse sectors,
encompassing healthcare, energy, financials, consumer staples, materials, industrials, utilities,
consumer discretionary, communication services, technology, and real estate. To delineate
between manufacturing and non-manufacturing entities, the sectors are analyzed based on
their predominant characteristics. Specifically, sectors such as financials, healthcare, utilities,
communication services, technology, and real estate are categorized as non-manufacturing,
while the remaining sectors were classified as manufacturing. Of the total sample, 47
companies are identified as belonging to non-manufacturing fields, highlighting the
significant representation of diverse industries within the dataset.
Sector Classification
Financials Non-manufacturing
Healthcare Non-manufacturing
Utilities Non-manufacturing
Technology Non-manufacturing
Materials Manufacturing
Industrials Manufacturing
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