Original Articles

DMI–St Eugene

Weather forecasting Based on Api Python University, Zambia,

Department of
Computer Science and
Information
Project Technology

GEORGE ZEKO
Department of Computer Science and Information Technology, DMI–St Eugene University,
Zambia

ABSTRACT
Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the
atmosphere for a given location. Ancient weather forecasting methods usually relied on
observed patterns of events, also termed pattern recognition. For example, it might be
observed that if the sunset was particularly red, the following day often brought fair weather.
However, not all of these predictions prove reliable. Here this system will predict weather
based on parameters such as temperature, humidity and wind. User will enter current
temperature; humidity and wind, System will take this parameter and will predict weather
(rainfall in inches) from previous data in database (dateset). The role of the admin is to add
previous weather data in database, so that system will calculate weather (estimated rainfall in
inches) based on these data. Weather forecasting system takes parameters such as
temperature, humidity, and wind and will forecast weather based on previous record therefore
this prediction will prove reliable. This system can be used in Air Traffic, Marine, Agriculture,
Forestry, Military, and Navy etc.

Forecasting is the process of estimation in unknown situations from the historical data. It is the
application of science and technology. Weather forecast is more helpful for people as it predicts
how the future weather is going to be and people may plan accordingly. Farmers will be most
beneficial one’s as they may know the rainfall prediction accordingly. The weather forecast can
be done in many ways like using the previous data or analyzing the current clouds.
This proposed application concentrates on weather forecasting with an improved prediction
and reliable accuracy. Traditional observations made at the surface of atmospheric pressure,
temperature, wind speed, wind direction, humidity, precipitation are collected routinely from
trained observers, automatic weather stations or buoys. During the data assimilation process,
information gained from the observations is used in conjunction with a numerical model's most
recent forecast for the time that observations were made to produce the meteorological
analysis.
Numerical weather prediction models are computer simulations of the atmosphere. They take the
analysis as the starting point and evolve the state of the atmosphere forward in time using
understanding of physics and fluid dynamics. The complicated equations which govern how the
state of a fluid changes with time require supercomputers to solve them. The output from the
model provides the basis of the weather forecast.

KEYWORDS
Predication, forecast, forecasting models, weather data, forecasting methods and applications.+

INTRODUCTION

Weather forecasting is the prediction of the state of the atmosphere for a given location using
the application of science and technology. This includes temperature, rain, cloudiness, wind
speed, and humidity. Weather warnings are a special kind of short-range forecast carried out
for the protection of human life.
Weather condition plays an important role in our daily life as weather and climate are the most
ubiquitous factors for home and environment planning. Moreover, the tremendous
development of Internet nowadays made possible to monitor weather conditions and collect
the respective data in-situ. All the objects, sensors and devices can be linked through Internet
to share and analyze the data collected at various locations.
People have been trying to predict the weather informally for thousands of years and since the
19th century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting information about the current state of
the atmosphere in a particular area and then using the weather to predict how the atmosphere
will change. Individual input is still required to select the best predictive model to establish the
prediction When it comes to human activity that is largely based on changes in barometric
stress, current climate, and weather or cloud cover, weather forecasting is now relying on
computer-based models that look at a number of celestial objects. Individual input is still
required to select the best predictive model to establish the prediction, which includes pattern
recognition skills, telephone communication, model performance information, and model bias
information. The use of computers in the field of information management is well known to
us .The use of computers in the university management system offers the following benefits in
addition
Weather prediction is the application of technology to predict the action of the atmosphere for
a given location. It is becoming increasingly vital for business, agriculturists, farmers, disaster
management and related organizations to understand the natural phenomena. The art of
weather prediction began with using the reoccurring astronomical and meteorological events
to help them to monitor the seasonal changes in the weather. Throughout these centuries, this
attempt is made to produce forecasts based on weather changes and personal observations.
Weather prediction has been one of the most interesting domains.
The scientists are been trying to forecast the meteorological data using a big set of methods,
some of them more accurate than others. Weather forecasting is an essential application in
meteorology and has been one of the most scientifically challenging problems around the
world. Weather condition is a state of atmosphere at given time and the weather parameters
are temperature, humidity, and wind speed. The accuracy of the prediction depends on
knowledge of prevailing weather condition over large areas. Weather is the non-linear and
dynamic process as it varies day to day even minute to minute; the big challenge of weather is
data intensive and the frenzied nature.
Weather forecasting means predicting the weather and telling how the weather changes with
change in time. Change in weather occurs due to movement or transfer of energy. Many
meteorological patterns and features like anticyclones, depressions, thunderstorms, hurricanes
and tornadoes occur due to the physical transfer of heat and moisture by convective process.
Clouds are formed by evaporation of water vapour. As the water cycle keeps on evolving the
water content in the clouds increases which in turn leads to precipitation.

Literature Review

Mark Holmstrom, Dylan Liu, Christopher Vo (2016) concluded that both linear and functional
regression did not perform as well as professional weather forecasting methods but in the
longer run differences in their performances decreased, suggesting that over a longer period of
time, Machine learning can indeed outperform professional and traditional methods. Linear
regression is a low bias and high variance algorithm and hence its accuracy can be improved by
collecting further data.

Sanyam Gupta, Indumathy, Govind Singhal (2015) suggested and proposed an efficient and
accurate weather prediction and forecasting model using linear regression concepts and normal
equation model. All these concepts are a part of machine learning. The normal equation is a
very efficient weather prediction model and using the entities temperature, humidity and dew-
point, it canbe used to make reliable weather predictions. This model also facilitates decision
making in day to day life. It can yield better results when applied to cleaner and larger datasets.
Aditya Grover, Ashish Kapoor and Eric Horvitz in their work made a weather prediction model
that predicts by considering the joint influence of key weather variables. They also made a
kernel and showed that interpolation of space can be done by using GPS with such a kernel,
taking into account various weather phenomena like turbulence. They also performed temporal
analysis withina learner based on gradient tree and augmented the system using deep neural
network.

Muthulakshmi A, ME (SE), Dr. S Baghavathi Priya (2014) in their work proposed a methodology
that aims at providing an efficient and accurate weather forecasting models to predict and
monitor the weather datasets to predict rainfall. In the past, the parameters of weather were
recorded only for the present time. But in the future, work will be done to make a working
model of selection that can be used for classifying the framework for continuous monitoring of
the climatic attributes.

Divya Chauhan and Jawahar Thakur (2013) made a comparison in their paper, which shows that
the algorithms such as k-mean clustering and decision trees are well suited for mining data to
predict future weather conditions. If we increase the size of the training set, the accuracy at
first increases but then it slowly decreases after a particular period of time, depending on the
size of the dataset

Piyush Kapoor and Sarabjeet Singh Bedi (2012) concluded that if we perform comparison of
weather condition variation by sliding window algorithm, theresults are highly accurate except
for the months of seasonal change. The results can be altered by changing the size of the
window. Accuracy of the unpredictable months can be increased by increasing the window size
to one month.

The random forest method can also be used to identify “regimes” in which they can improve
the skill of the application by using forecast logic.
RESULTS
In this section, we present a complete overview of our trained models and weather channel
data. The first set of results demonstrates the accuracy of the prediction while increasing the
training data by adding neighboring cities, and by adding more weeks.

Research method and plan

The Hybrid approach, as the name implies, is a combination of the Waterfall and Agile
methodologies.
The Hybrid methodology focuses on gathering and analyzing requirements initially - a nod to
the Waterfall method.
Agile project management approach is known for its adaptability to changes in project lifecycle
but has uncertainties in costs and time. Debates are still ongoing between practitioners and the
academics regarding the project managers approach while choosing the methodology to gain
the project success. We investigated and explored the adoption of hybrid methodology, which
is a fusion of traditional and agile project management methodologies in project. The hybrid
methodology is becoming popular but still emerging, provides hybrid success with the fusion of
structured waterfall and the flexible agile.

DISCUSSION
The purpose of this work is to use temperature Artificial neural network (ANN). 4 cases created
Investigated in both experiments, the predicted range is 1, 3, 6 and 12 hours. 4 separate things
in
each experiment One model were created for each case. Input data Normalized and the output
is
denormalized Forecast in Celsius. For testing different models, 48 hours of continuous time is
predicted by the different models. All ANNs use a normalized linear unit (ReLU) as the
activation function and linear activation of the hidden layer. Works on the output layer .
CONCLUSION
In the era of the global warming, research in weather measurement, monitoring and
forecasting are become more and more relevant. This research demonstrates the design and
implementation of an affordable mini weather monitoring system that ensures flexibility,
portability, scability and user friendly operations which can provide data of some weather
variables including temperature, humidity and pressure. With the advacement of technology
weather forecasting has developed to its level best, but there is yet to develop, as far as a
nature is so unpredictable. Weather forecasts are increasingly accurate and useful, and their
benefits extend widely across the economy. While much has been accomplished in improving
weather forecasts, there remains much room for improvement. Simultaneously, they are
developing new technologies and observational netwoeks that can enchance forecaster skill
and the value of their services to their users.

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