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DElphi

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21 views3 pages

DElphi

Uploaded by

celestialgemini55
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Delphi technique: The Delphi method is a

predicting process and structured communication


framework based on the results of multiple rounds
of questionnaires sent to a panel of experts. It is
widely used for gathering data from respondents
within their domain of expertise.
The technique is based on the principle that
estimates from a structured group of individuals
are more accurate than those from unstructured
groups.

Key Steps in the Delphi Technique


1. Selection of Experts:
o Choose a panel of experts knowledgeable about the topic of interest.
o Ensure diversity to cover all relevant aspects of the subject.
2. First Round of Questionnaires:
o Prepare and send out an initial questionnaire to the experts.
o The questions are open-ended to gather diverse perspectives.
3. Summarization of Responses:
o Collect and summarize the responses.
o Identify common themes, areas of agreement, and disagreements.
4. Second Round of Questionnaires:
o Create a new set of questionnaires based on the summary from the
first round.
o Include feedback, allowing experts to reconsider their views in light
of the group's responses.
5. Iterative (repetition) Rounds:
o Repeat the summarization and questionnaire process for multiple
rounds (typically two to four).
o Aim to reach an agreement or a clear understanding of the different
perspectives.
6. Final Analysis:
o Analyze the responses from the final round.
o Report the findings, highlighting areas of agreement and significant
divergence.
Applications of the Delphi Technique
 Forecasting: Predicting future trends, technological developments, or
market movements.
 Policy Analysis: Developing and evaluating policy options.
 Program Planning: Planning and assessing programs and projects.
 Needs Assessment: Identifying and prioritizing needs within a community
or organization.
Advantages
 Anonymity: Experts do not know the identities of other panel members,
which reduces the influence of dominant individuals.
 Controlled Feedback: Structured feedback helps refine and clarify the
opinions of the panel.
 Statistical Aggregation: Quantitative techniques can be applied to the
results, providing a clear basis for decision-making.
Disadvantages
 Time-Consuming: The iterative nature can be lengthy.
 Resource Intensive: Requires significant effort to manage the process and
analyze the data.
 Dependence on Expert Selection: The quality of the outcome is heavily
dependent on the expertise and diversity of the selected panel.
Example Scenario
Suppose a government health department wants to predict the spread of a new
infectious disease and evaluate potential intervention strategies. They might use the
Delphi technique by:
1. Assembling a panel of epidemiologists, public health experts, and
healthcare professionals.
2. Sending out an initial questionnaire to gather diverse opinions on the
potential spread and impact of the disease.
3. Summarizing responses to identify common themes and different opinions.
4. Conducting multiple rounds of questionnaires to refine the experts' views
and move towards an agreement on the most effective intervention
strategies.
5. Finalizing the analysis to inform policy decisions on how to manage and
mitigate the spread of the disease.

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