Risk Perception and Adaptation Strategies in Enugu State, Nigeria Ejike, O.U., Ibeagwa, O.B., Ehirim, N.C., Arigor, A.J. and Ahibafu, I.F
Risk Perception and Adaptation Strategies in Enugu State, Nigeria Ejike, O.U., Ibeagwa, O.B., Ehirim, N.C., Arigor, A.J. and Ahibafu, I.F
1, 2024
Ejike, O.U., Ibeagwa, O.B., Ehirim, N.C., Arigor, A.J. and Ahibafu, I.F.
ABSTRACT
The study assessed the climate change risk perception and adaptation strategies of smallholder
rice crop farmers in Enugu State, Nigeria Specifically, the study described the socio-economic
characteristics of smallholder rice farmers, identified the adaptation strategies adopted by
smallholder rice crop farmers, determined the smallholder rice crop farmers' climate change risk
perception, determined the factors influencing smallholder rice farmers' level of risk perception
and identified the challenges faced by smallholder rice crop farmers in Enugu State. A multistage
sampling method was employed in selecting the 100 rice farmers from 20 villages, 10 communities
and 4 Local Government Areas across 2 Agricultural zones in Enugu State. A well-structured
questionnaire administered to the respondents was the means of data collection. Data collected
were analyzed using two major tools: descriptive statistics and Ordered Probit regression model.
The study showed that majority (54%) of the smallholder rice crop farmers were middle aged
farmers who were still physically active, vibrant and can participate adequately in farming
activities, most (92%) had formal education which indicates that a relatively good number of
farmers in the area are literate. The adaptive strategies adopted by the farmers’ incudes: crop
diversification, use of drought resistant variety and improved water management. It was observed
that most of the farmers perceived increased rainfall volume, flooding, land degradation and loss
of arable soil surface as important climate change risk factors. Result of the ordered probit
regression model revealed that only age was positively significant while farming experience, level
of education and farmers group membership were negatively significant to farmers' level of
climate change risk perception in the area. Based on the findings, it was concluded that rice
farmers had reason knowledge of climate change and are aware of possible climate change risks
whose variables affected their rice crop production. The study therefore recommended that there
is need for further improvement on farmers awareness through adequate and proper
enlightenment of the risk climate change variables poses which will help the farmers further in
improving their output and hence income. There is also need to intensify awareness campaign to
rice crop farmers on how to reduce the effects of climate change on their production.
Keywords: Risk, Perception, Adaptation, Strategies, Climate Change, Rice farmers.
INTRODUCTION
Climate is the average weather in a given area over a period of time. A description of climate
includes information on the average temperature in different seasons, rainfall and sunshine. It is
long-term summation of atmospheric elements and their formation. (World Meteorological
Organization WMO, 2018).
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Climate change refers to the long-term shifts in temperature weather pattern. This shifts maybe
natural, but since 1800s, human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily
due to the burning of fossil fuels. Climate change is a problem that has received a great deal of
attention in recent years. This change in climate has been identified as one of the major
environmental challenges facing humanity in the 21st century (Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change IPCC, 2018). It was projected to have significant impacts on agriculture, which
is the primary source of livelihood for a significant proportion of the world's population,
particularly in developing countries (Food and Agriculture Organization FAO, 2019).
Risk perception is an important concept in agriculture, as it can influence farmers' decision-making
regarding the adoption of new technologies and management practices, as well as their responses
to weather and market fluctuations. It is an important concept in various fields including health,
environment, and economics. Public perception of environmental risks was influenced by a range
of factors, including socio-demographic characteristics, knowledge and awareness, and personal
experiences (Olatunji et al., (2020). Farmers' risk perception is influenced by a range of factors,
including environmental and socioeconomic conditions, information availability, and personal
characteristics such as age and experience (Ferrer et al., 2018).
A good knowledge of climate change and its associated risk is required for and effective
adaptation. Adaptation refers to actions taken to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change and
to take advantage of new opportunities arising from changing climate conditions. Adaptation can
take many forms, including changes in technology, infrastructure, land use, agricultural practices,
and social and economic systems. Adapting to climate change in agriculture involves
implementing practices that increase resilience and productivity in the face of changing weather
patterns (Adebayo et al., 2021).
In Nigeria, the agricultural sector accounts for approximately 22% of the country's GDP and
employs about 70% of the population. Smallholder crop farmers in Nigeria are particularly
vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, including changes in rainfall patterns,
temperature, and extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods (United Nations
Development Program UNDP, 2019). Smallholder crop farmers are farmers who cultivate crops
on a small scale, usually on less than two hectares of land. In Nigeria, the majority of farmers are
smallholders, and they play a crucial role in ensuring food security and providing livelihoods for
rural populations. Smallholder crop farming is characterized by a high degree of variability, as
farmers face numerous challenges such as climate change, soil degradation, pests and diseases,
and market fluctuations. Access to credit, extension services, and improved seed varieties are key
factors that determine smallholder farmers' productivity in Nigeria (Olagunju and Adeoti, 2019).
Smallholder farmers in the southeastern part of Nigeria are vulnerable to the impacts of climate
change, which include unpredictable rainfall patterns, increased temperature, and extreme weather
events (Happiness et al., 2016). Enugu State is located in the southeastern region of Nigeria, and
rice is a major staple crop in the State, accounting for a significant proportion of agricultural output.
Recent studies have highlighted the impact of climate change on rice farming in Nigeria and other
African countries. For instance, a study by Urama and Ozor (2018) revealed that climate change
has led to a decline in rice yield and productivity in Nigeria, particularly in the northern part of the
country. Another study by Ogunnaike et al. (2021) identified the various adaptation strategies
employed by smallholder farmers in response to climate change in Nigeria. But little or no study
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has been conducted to address the issue of climate change perception by rice famers particularly
in Enugu State, and various adaption strategies in a bid to critically analyze and ascertain those
factors that influenced farmers’ perception of climate change and their various significant impact.
Therefore, this study aims to investigate the climate change risk perception of smallholder rice
crop farmers in Enugu State, analyze the adaptation strategies they employed, determine the factors
affecting the perceived climate changed risk by these farmers and ascertain the challenges faced
by these farmers in adopting various climate change adaptative strategies. By examining farmers'
knowledge, attitudes, and practices related to climate change and its associated risk, the research
seeks to highlight and provide valuable insights that can inform policy decisions, development
programs, and capacity-building initiatives to support sustainable agriculture and enhance the
livelihoods of smallholder farmers in the region.
METHODOLOGY
Enugu State is a state in the South-East geopolitical zone of Nigeria, bordered to the north by the
states of Benue and Kogi, Ebonyi State to the East and Southeast, Abia State to the South, and
Anambra State to the West. The state has an estimated population of about 4 million people. The
State has Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates of 6° 27' 35.8704'' N and 7° 32' 56.2164''
E. The State is divided into three agricultural zones, 17 Local Government Areas (LGA). Some of
the LGAs in Enugu State with significant rice farming activities include Aninri, Awgu, Enugu
East, Enugu North, Enugu South, Ezeagu, Igbo-Etiti, Igbo-Eze North, Igbo-Eze South, Isi-Uzo,
Nkanu East, Nkanu West, and Udi (Enugu State, ADP).
Data and information used for this study were sourced from primary sources. The primary data
collection was from a field survey through the use of a well-structured questionnaire consisting of
information on the socio-economic characteristics of the respondents, perception of climate risk
variables and challenges faced by farmers. A multistage sampling method was employed in
selecting the respondents. At the first stage, two agricultural zones were purposively selected
because of its dominance in rice farming. Secondly, two LGAs were purposively selected from the
selected agricultural zones because of their significant dominance in rice farming activities and
observed climate change impact on these areas. Thirdly, three communities were randomly
selected from two selected LGAs and two communities were also selected from the other two
selected LGAs because of the uneven distribution of rice farmers in these LGAs, making a total of
10 communities. From each of the selected communities, two villages were randomly selected
from each community making a total of 20 villages. Finally, five rice farmers were randomly
selected from each of the selected villages making the sample size of 100 farmers for the study.
Data Analysis
The study employed the use of weighted mean obtained from a 5-point Likert scale, descriptive
statistics and ordered probit regression model in analyzing data for the study. The farmers’ degree
of perception of climate change risk factors was achieved using the weighted mean obtained from
a 5-points likert type of scale. The farmers’ perception of the climate change risk factors such as
drought and crop wilting, high temperature, increased rainfall frequency, etc, were weighed on a
5- point likert type of scale across the major climate change factors listed in the study. The values
assigned to the degree of perception ranges from 0 for not excessive to the highest degree of 4 for
very excessive. The factors influencing rice farmers’ risk perception level was achieved using
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ordered Probit regression model. The dependent variable W represents the risk perception index
of the smallholder rice farmers in the area as measured from the degree each farmer perceived each
climate change risk factors that challenges his production level Emenyonu et al., (2020). The
climate change risk perception was measured on a five-point Likert type of scale. Each farmer is
allowed to indicate the degree at which they perceived each climate change risk factor. The actual
perception index of ith farmer is the summative value for all perceived climate risk factors of that
ith farmer and it is expressed as a ratio of maximum obtainable perception index. The perception
index (W) in equation (i) is obtained as;
𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑓𝑎𝑟𝑚𝑒𝑟
𝑊 = 𝑀𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑏𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 i
Wi=βi + μ ii
Where: Wi= perception index of the ith farmer. The perception index is ordered according to
various categories from not excessive to very excessive
T = the critical (cut off) value which translates into Wi* >T as a farmer perception to climatic effect
is very excessive, and Wi* < T as a farmer stated otherwise and
μ = error term
Where: X1 - XN are independent variables (Sex, Age, Access to extension agents, Educational
Level, Access to climate information, Farming Experience, Farmers group membership)
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of Eze et al. (2016) that observed that women were actively involved in rice production more than
the men in the study area.
The distribution of farmers by age shows that higher percentage (35.0%) of the respondents were
between 48 – 56 years old with the mean age of 41.45 years and 6.0% were between 66-74 years
old. Age is considered an important factor among the socio-economic characteristics of rice crop
farmers as it determines strength, vigor, effectiveness and competence of labour availability for
production. This implies that smallholder rice crop farmers in the study area were middle aged
farmers who were within the economic productive age and are still physically active, vibrant, and
dynamic; hence they had the ability to supply the required labour needed in the production of crop.
This result is in line with the findings of Nwosu and Nwakwasi (2021) which observed that young
farmers constituted the majority of the crop farmers, and are more flexible to new ideas and risk;
hence they are believed and expected to be more willing to adopt innovations more readily than
older farmers.
Majority (77.0%) of the rice crop farmers sampled were married and 23.0% were single, implying
that the study area was dominated by smallholder rice crop farmers who were married. This
indicated that crop production is a source of livelihood for the farmers and their families. It further
suggested that most of the respondents had family members who can serve as source of labour in
their crop farms as opined by Ezeaku et al. (2021) who reported that majority of the crop farmers
were married and marital status is an important factor in production in terms of family labour.
Education is an important socio-economic factor that influences farmers‟ decision making because
of its assumed influence on farmer’ awareness, understanding and adoption of innovations that can
bring about increase in productivity. The educational level of farmers increases both their ability
to understand and evaluate new techniques and also their productivity. The study result shows that
2.0% of the respondents had no formal education while 98% had formal education with the
majority (75%) having more than 13years of formal education. The finding indicates that relatively
literate farmers dominated the study area which implies that the average farmer had basic
education. This helps in sourcing information from various sources on climate change. Educated
farmers are expected to be more receptive to improved farming techniques as adaptive strategies
to climate change while farmers with low level of education or without education would be less
receptive and often subjective and conservative to traditional farming methods as supported by a
similar finding of Eze et al. (2021); Allison et al. (2009) posited that vulnerability and adaptation
of a nation to climate change impact depends on level of education of its citizens.
Majority (71.0%) of the respondents had a household size between 5 and 8 persons while 6.0% of
the respondents had between 1 and 4. Akaogu and Ugwumba (2021), reported that a relatively
large household size contributes greatly to the availability of labour. However, the potential for
productive farm work is not justified by the absolute number of people in a certain family. Other
important socio-economics factors like age, sex and health status can affect and contribute.
The result Table 1 shows that a larger proportion (43.0%) of the respondents had 11 – 20 years
farming experience and the least (1.0%) of the respondents had 41 – 50 farming experience. This
study as indicated was dominated by average experienced farmers. They are therefore described
as experienced and are expected to have higher experience pool that will help to boost their
productivity, understanding of climate variability and various associated risk. This is in line with
the findings of Okoye and Anyiro (2021), that with more experience, a farmer can become less
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averse to the risk implied by adopting a new technology. Adekunle and Adekunle (2021) reported
that “farmers count more on their experience than educational attainment in order to increase their
productivity”.
Majority (63.0%) of the respondent were members of co-operative society while 37.0% of the
respondent were not member of co-operative society. The implication is that they are not likely to
have more access to farm information and improved adaptive strategies. As a stretch-out effect of
this result, most of the rice farmers in the study area do not enjoy the assumed benefits accrued to
co-operative societies through pooling of resources together for a better expansion, efficiency and
effective management of resources. Ogbuabor et al. (2020) supports this finding in his study that
farmers who were members of cooperatives had access to credit which gives them the ability to
choose more capital-intensive adaptation strategies.
The ultimate aim of extension services is to enhance farmers’ ability to efficiently utilize resources
through the adoption of new and improved methods used in rice production instead of using
traditional methods which are inefficient and equipping them with recent and improved
information. The distribution of the sampled farmers based on extension visit as presented in Table
1 shows that majority (83.0%) of the respondents were visited by extension agents, while 17.0%
of the respondents had no contact with extension agents. Poor extension services may hinder
farmers’ access to necessary information on climate change and various adaptation strategies.
Good extension programmers and contacts with producers are key factor in technology
dissemination and adoption (Okoye et al., 2020). According to Eze et al. (2016) the increased
frequency of extension agent visits is an opportunity to transfer skill, knowledge and information
which facilitate cultivation of arable crop and keep abreast of the effects of climate change
variables on the farming activities and ways of adaptation.
The study shows evident in Table 1 that almost all (99%) of the respondents had access to climate
information while 1% of the respondent did not have access to climate information. This shows
that greater number of the respondents were aware and knowledgeable about climate information
and possible impact on their rice crop.
Adaptation strategies
The result of the analyses of various climate change adaptation strategies available in the study
area and the rice farmers’ adaptation of these strategies is presented in Table 2.
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Table 3 shows different climate change risk factors and how smallholder rice crop farmers
perceived them. This shows the understanding and how these farmers perceived these risks on
broadly two dimensions; it first looked at farmers understanding and knowledge of these risk
factors and the extent they believe of the effect of each factor on rice crop production though not
precisely how much of these effects. This analysis was carried out using the weighed mean from
Likert scale. The result shows that in the area, land degradation, loss of arable soil surface, increase
in rainfall volume, incidence of pest and diseases and flooding/erosion with a mean value of 3.33,
3.60, 3.36, 3.18 and 3.61 respectively showing very excessive was perceived by farmers to be the
most important risk factors on their farms. This is in line with the findings of Happiness et al.
(2016) and Eze et al. (2016), who both asserted that loss of arable soil surface, land degradation,
flooding and other factors had negative and significant effect on crop production in the South
eastern part of Nigeria as soil nutrient are eroded in the case of frequent flood incidences.
Destruction of paddy fields by rain, high temperature, Increased rainfall frequency and changes in
sunshine intensity had mean values of 2.87, 2.96, 2.74 and 2.51 respectively showing that their
effects were excessive; Decrease in length of rice production, low temperature, changes in quality
of rice output and changes in wind pattern/speed had mean values of 2.07, 2.18, 2.01 and 2.03
respectively showing that their effects were undecided while drought and crop wilting and late
rainfall records or delay in onset of rainfall had mean values of 1.31 and 1.64 respectively showing
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that they were less excessive. The respondents perceived the most important risk factor on their
farms to be flooding/erosion (mean value 3.61) while the least was drought and crop wilting (mean
value 1.31). This outcome might have stemmed from the fact that most farmers find it difficult to
distinguish which of these factors caused certain damage or they might have problems with
distinguishing one climate change risk factor from the other. Concluding from the obtained result,
it can be said that the small holder rice crop farmers had reasonable perception of the effects of the
various risk factors on their crop productions.
Factors Influencing Rice Farmers' Level of Risk Perception
The result of the analysis of the probit regression for factors that influence rice farmers’ level of
risk perception is presented in Table 4.
Table 4: Probit Regression Results on Factors Influencing Rice Farmers' Level of Risk
Perception
Parameters
Co-efficients Std Error Z P>|z|
Constant -12.2781 4.3303 3.791 0.035**
Pseudo R2 0.5136
Log likelihood 53.1632290904234
Number of observations 100
Prob> chi2 148.950782732989
Notes: ***=significant @ 1%, **=significant @ 5%, *=significant @ 10%
Source: Field Survey Data, 2023
Probit regression model was used to determine factors influencing smallholder rice farmers' level
of risk perception. The likelihood ratio statistics as indicated by statistics (53.1632290904234) are
highly significant (P < 0.000), suggesting the model has a strong explanatory power. The results
of the analysis as shown in Table 4 reveals that age, educational level, farming experience and
farmers group membership are the major factors that influenced rice farmers' level of risk
perception in the study area. The coefficient of age was negative which implies that increase in the
value of any the variable reduces rice farmers’ level of risk perception, while the coefficients of
educational level, farming experience and farmers group membership were positive which implies
that increase in the value of any the variables increase rice farmers’ level of risk perception.
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Age was significant at 1% (P< 0.01) and negatively related perception index. This implies that the
probability that the farmer would have a high-risk perception index decreased by about 14.0% for
every unit increase in the age of the farmer. This implies that older farmers may thus be more
vulnerable and susceptible to the adverse effect of the climate especially in their farming activities because
they had lower risk perception indices. This is expected because younger farmers are believed to
have more access to information than older farmers because of their access and knowledge of
modern and improved technology.
Farming experience is significant at 1% (P< 0.01) and positively related to farmers’ level of risk
perception. This implies that the probability that the farmer would have a high-risk perception
index increased by about 10.2% for every unit increase in the farming experience of the farmer.
This connotes that as the farmers’ years of farming experience increases, the likelihood of having
increasing farmers’ level of risk perception increases. This is believed to be so and conforms to
apriori expectation because the longer a farmer is exposed to a particular enterprise and production
practices, the more he is well equipped with information and knowledge about climate variabilities
and their adverse effects; information on problems and causes associated with the enterprise and
also failed technology and innovations and possible solutions.
Level of education was significant at 5% (P< 0.05) and positively related. This implies that there
is about 11.5% percent increase in risk perception for every unit increase in years of formal
education. It means that the more years of formal education the farmer has, the higher the
probability of his risk perception index. This result threw more light on the fact that formal
education plays a vital role in alerting individual’s awareness of the impact of climate change and
the risks it poses to rice crop production as opined by Francis and Tsunemi (2017) who asserted
that two demographic variables (i.e., age and education) are significant predictors of climate
change risk perception.
The coefficient of farmers’ group membership or cooperative membership was significant at 10%
(P< 0.10) and positively related to farmers’ risk perception thus implying that for every increase
in farmers’ group membership, the probability of an increase in the farmers’ risk perception index
increases by about 75.9%. This goes to show the key role belonging to a farmers group play in
availing important information to the farmers most of whom might not have access to other
conventional sources of information. This groups are very important in getting formation
especially in area of climate change and the risk it poses to the farmer’s livelihood.
Challenges
The result of the analysis of the challenges faced by rice farmers in adapting to climate change is
presented in Table 5.
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systems, zero tillage practice, credit acquisition, etc. It was further observed from the study that
age, years of farming experience, educational level and farmers group membership were
significant variables influencing rice farmers' level of risk perception in Enugu State
It is therefore recommended that there is need to improve on farmers enlightenment of climate
change variables, intensify awareness campaign to rice crop farmers on how to reduce the effects of
climate change towards helping the farmers further improve their output and hence income.
Improved technology that is simple and compatible with environmental factors should be developed to
assist rice crop farmers. Government should intensify more efforts in assisting rice crop farmers through
agricultural extension services in most of their agricultural programmes especially on climate change risk
and available and efficient adaptative strategies to adopt.
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