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Lesson 3 PMP

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17 views152 pages

Lesson 3 PMP

Uploaded by

Daniel Noah
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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LESSON 3

PLAN THE
PROJECT
• Planning Projects
• Scope
• Schedule
• Resources
• Budget
• Risks
• Quality
• Integrate Plans

Version 3.1 | 2023 Release Copyright 2023 Project Management Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright 2023© Project
This material is beingManagement Institute,
provided as part Inc. Workshop.
of a PMI All rights reserved. 1
This material is being provided as part of a PMI® course.
Learning Objectives

• Explain the importance of a project management plan.


• Provide an overview of scope planning in both predictive and adaptive projects.
• Provide an overview of schedule planning in both predictive and adaptive projects.
• Discuss resource planning for a project, including human and physical resources and the
role of procurement.
• Determine the budgeting structure/method for a project
• Explain the importance of tailoring a budget.
• Identify strategies for dealing with risks and risk planning.
• Assemble a toolkit of possible responses to risks.
• Define quality and how it relates to the outcomes and deliveries for a project.
• Discuss the importance of integrating project management plans and tailoring a change
management process.
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2
Planning Projects
TOPIC A

3
Planning Starts with a
Project Management Plan
Enables project managers to ....
• Execute
The document that describes how the • Monitor
project will be executed, monitored and
• Control
controlled, and closed.
• Close
It includes:
• Subsidiary plans
• Baselines
• Establishes guardrails to maintain controls,
• Additional components so ....
• Teams can tailor their way of working and
act quickly and flexibly!

*See definition tab for list

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4
Project
Documents*

Documentation and content created by the team to plan and manage the
project effectively

Some documents are project artifacts, which need to be maintained and


then archived at the end of the project.

They are not components of the project management plan.

*See definition tab for list

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5
Collaborative
Planning
Product owner decides objectives according to customer
Adaptive and needs/wants; team executes work and helps product
Hybrid owner plan the work
Development
Approaches

Team members are local domain experts in integration


management — how work will be planned and
completed

Project manager, team lead or scrum master helps focus


the team to execute the planned work

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6
Planning Across Life Cycles
Predictive Hybrid Adaptive

Requirements Defined in specific terms Elaborated periodically Elaborated frequently


specification before development during delivery during delivery

Delivered after each


Delivered at the end of the Can be divided into pieces
Outcome(s) iteration according to
project (incremental)
stakeholder-desired value

Constrained as much as Incorporated at periodic Incorporated in real time


Change
possible intervals during delivery

Stakeholder
At specific milestones Regularly Continuously
Involvement

Through detailed planning


Risk and cost Through progressive Done as requirements and
of mostly known
controls elaboration of plans constraints emerge
consideration

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7
Topic Coverage

Differentiation of planning in predictive and


adaptive approaches

8
Scope
TOPIC B

9
Scope Click me!

PROJECT
SCOPE
• Project scope or product

PRODUCT
scope?

SCOPE
• Is it fixed or flexible?

FIXED
FLEXIBLE
Let’s use the Shawpe Lifestyle Centre
project—the independent case study
part of this course—to understand these
terms better.
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10
Adaptability and
Resilience in Planning

Rolling Wave Planning


• A form of progressive elaboration
applied to work packages, planning
packages and release planning
• Used in adaptive or predictive
approaches

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11
MVP or MBI?
Planning for
Work
Incrementally

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12
Product Roadmap*

• Envisions and plans the “big picture”


• Displays product strategy and direction
and the value to be delivered
• Leads with the overarching product
vision and uses progressive elaboration
to refine vision
• Uses themes (goals) to provide structure
and associations
• Provides short-term and long-term
visualization

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13
Milestones*

• Markers for big events, reviews, due


dates, payments or decision-making
• Prompts for reporting requirements or
sponsor/customer approval
• Created by project managers,
customers or both
A milestone list identifies all milestones
and indicates which are:
• Mandatory - required by contract, or
• Optional (estimated on historical
information)

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14
Scope Planning
Comparison of Processes
PRODUCT OWNER
• Creates and refines release backlog for
PROJECT MANAGER iteration planning meeting
• Facilitates the Collect Requirements • Explains each prioritized user story in
Process detail to the team
• Documents requirements in a:
• Scope statement (text/document) TEAM
• Work breakdown structure (WBS) – • Estimates effort required and creates the
(visual) iteration baseline, selecting stories to meet
the expected velocity for the iteration.
• Develops schedule, budget, resource and
quality plans to deliver requirements • Places user stories from product backlog
into release backlog to support identified
features and functions
What might a hybrid scope • Uses a story map to sequence and
planning process look like? prioritize user stories in the release
backlog

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15
Get Started with Requirements?

Does this kind of project start with requirements?

Click each button!

Yes! Sort of… Maybe!


In predictive User stories are Hybrid projects may
projects, a different way of elicit and refine
requirements are thinking about the requirements or
elicited and set at requirements compose user
the beginning of the process. stories.
project.
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16
Requirements
What Are They
and Why Do We
Need Them?
• A requirement is one single measurable statement of a condition or
capability.
• It tells how a product, service or result satisfies a business need.

Guidelines for use:

• Start at a high level before providing details

• Must be unambiguous (measurable and testable), traceable,


complete, consistent and acceptable to key stakeholders

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17
Document Requirements

• A simple format — e.g., a document


listing all requirements, categorized
by stakeholder and priority, OR
• More elaborate — e.g., executive
summary, detailed descriptions,
attachments
• Requirements traceability matrix

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18
Requirements
Management
Plan
• Configuration management activities:
Plan, Track and • Version control rules
Report on • Impact analysis - tracing, tracking and reporting
Requirements
• Required authorization levels for change approval
Activities
• Prioritization criteria/process

• Product metrics and accompanying rationale

• Traceability structure, including requirement attributes

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19
Types of Requirements
Type Describes the...

Project Actions, processes and conditions the project must meet

Features and characteristics of the product, service or result that will meet the business
and stakeholder requirements
Product • Functional – Product features
• Nonfunctional - Supplemental environmental conditions/qualities that make the product
effective

Conditions or criteria needed to validate the successful completion of a project deliverable


Quality
or fulfilment of other project requirements

Business Higher-level organizational needs, reasons for the project

Stakeholder Stakeholder (or stakeholder group) needs —aka “Reporting requirements”

Transition/
Temporary capabilities needed to transition successfully to the desired future state
Readiness

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20
Collect
Requirements • Expert Judgment • Data Analysis
Process • Interpersonal/Team Skills • Document analysis
• Nominal group technique • Alternatives analysis
• Observation • Product analysis (if
deliverable is a product)
• Facilitation
• Decision-Making Techniques
• Data Gathering
• Voting
• Brainstorming
• Multi-criteria decision
• Interviews
analysis
• Focus groups
• Questionnaires and surveys • Data Representation
• Benchmarking • Mind mapping
• Affinity diagram
• Context or use case diagram
• Prototyping — e.g.,
storyboarding

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Scope Planning: How to Collect Requirements
Interviews Questionnaires/Surveys Observations Focus Groups Facilitated Workshops

• Identify/define • Sessions organized


• Casual/interactive
features and • Written format by project managers
• Physical technique information-sharing
functions of • Captures information to determine
used learn about a • Moderator-guided
Characteristics deliverables from large groups requirements and
specific job role, • Includes stakeholders
• Can be structured, • Yields quantitative enable stakeholder
task or function and SMEs
unstructured or data agreement on project
• Yields qualitative data
asynchronous outcomes

• Handles sensitive/ • Quick turnaround


• Pre-selected • Team can capture
confidential • Effective with varied
participants for varied requirements
information and geographically • Team can
opinions • Stakeholders can
• Helps identify dispersed understand where
Advantages • Small group for understand the
stakeholder respondents changes might be
focused approach concerns and
requirements, • Yields quantifiable beneficial
and gathering specific requirements of
goals or data for statistical
information others
expectations analysis

• Time consuming • Must prequalify


Considerations • Captures only a
• Answer/ data quality stakeholders • Facilitation is
(potential single point of
drawbacks) depends on question • SMEs and facilitation essential
view
quality are essential

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22
Data
Gathering
Use Benchmarks to generate product requirements
• Requires best practices to make comparisons
• Evaluates and compares an organization’s or project’s practices
with others
• Identifies best practices in order to meet or exceed them

• Can you remember the other methods for data gathering?

• Why do you think benchmarking is effective in gathering data


for scope planning?

• Why would you choose it instead of the other methods?

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23
Scope Planning – Requirements Prioritization

Tool or Technique Description Benefits


Used to reach a common understanding with • Compares several points of view
stakeholders on the importance of each requirement. • Used with timeboxing to focus on the most
They indicate: important requirements
MoSCoW Analysis • M - Must have • Common in agile software development, Scrum,
developed by Dai Clegg • S - Should have RAD and DSDM
• C - Could have
• W - Won't have (for now)

Understand and classify all potential customer • Development efforts can then be prioritized by the
requirements or features into four categories of need: things that most influence customer satisfaction
Kano Model • Delighters/exciters and loyalty.
(Product management technique) • Satisfiers
developed by Noriaki Kano • Dissatisfiers
• Indifferent

Paired Comparison Analysis Rate and rank alternatives by comparing one against • Good for small range of subjective requirements
developed by LL Thurston the other

100 Points Method Vote for importance of requirements in a list; • Good for any size group, even large ones
(aka fixed sum or fixed allocation stakeholders distribute 100 points in any way they • Gives priority to stakeholder decision- making
method) wish (Like “Monopoly money” method) because they must exercise depth of thought
developed by Dean Leffingwell and Don
Widrig

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24
Represent Data

• Mind Mapping – Consolidate ideas


created through individual brainstorming
sessions into a single map to reflect
commonality and differences in
understanding and to generate new
ideas
• Affinity Diagram – Allows large
numbers of ideas to be classified for
review and analysis

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25
Context Business Context Diagram Example
Diagrams*
GOVERNMENT PRIVATE SECTOR

REQUEST FOR REQUEST FOR


FUNDING FUNDING FUNDING FUNDING

HARDWARE, SOFTWARE
AND SUPPORT EDUCATIONAL
SERVICES
USER COMMUNITY UNIVERSITY INDUSTRY
REQUEST FOR HARDWARE, REQUEST FOR
SOFTWARE AND SUPPORT EDUCATIONAL SERVICES

REQUEST FOR EDUCATIONAL


EDUCATIONAL SERVICES
SERVICES

EDUCATION
COMMUNITY

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26
Prototyping

• Evaluation and experimentation tool


• Enables early feedback for further
development and to develop a detailed
list of project requirements
• Storyboarding is a type of prototyping
that uses visuals or images to illustrate a
process or represent a project outcome.

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27
Scope
Management
Plan*

• Review of the scope activities for the project and how that work will be
done
• Should include processes to prepare a project scope statement
• Enables the creation of the WBS from the detailed project scope
statement
• Establishes how the scope baseline will be approved and maintained
• Specifies how formal acceptance of the completed project deliverables
will be obtained
• Can be formal or informal, broadly framed or highly detailed

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28
Project Scope
Statement
Includes –

• Scope description - project and product


• Acceptance criteria
• Any required deliverables
• Any out-of-scope items needed for clarification
• Constraints and assumptions

Once it has been approved and baselined, changes are only


permitted in accordance with the change management plan.

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29
Scope
Planning
Tools and Used to consider possible potential
Techniques for Document options or approaches to execute and
analysis perform project work
Analysis
Analyze the information needed to
Match the Alternatives
requirements develop the project scope statement or
analysis analysis any technical detail
tool/technique with
the correct Derive new project requirements from
description. Product
existing documents
analysis

Ask questions about a product and form


Expert judgment answers to describe use, characteristics,
and other relevant aspects

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30
Product Analysis Methods

PRODUCT BREAKDOWN REQUIREMENTS ANALYSIS


Splits a product and its requirements into Identifies, validates and documents
components to achieve a clear understanding specifications for projects
of work

VALUE ENGINEERING
SYSTEMS ENGINEERING
Optimizes value in a structured way
Approaches design, integration, and
management, and the life cycle of complex
systems in a multi-disciplinary way VALUE ANALYSIS
Examines factors affecting product/service
cost in a systematic, interdisciplinary way
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
towards success with the lowest cost and
Studies a product /service to identify its goals required quality and reliability standards
and purposes and create systems/ procedures
to achieve them efficiently

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31
Create the Work Breakdown
Structure (WBS)* 1.0
Top of WBS
Project name or
Project Name
primary deliverable

• Follow the 100% rule! Management control point


1.1
• Include every aspect – nothing Control Account
Integrate scope, budget, and
schedule to compare to EV
extra, nothing missing
• Include project and product components
Works needed further plan
• Use hierarchical structure 1.1.2
Integrate scope, budget, and
Planning Package
• Highest – project schedule to compare to EV

• Next – deliverables
• Lowest – work package Planned works
1.1.1 1.1.2.1
Group scheduled and
Work Package Work Package
estimated activities

Each work package is


WBS code
part of only one financial (numbering system)
control account.

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32
Decompose
Work in the Steps:
WBS 1. Identify deliverables and the work/tasks needed to
accomplish them
2. Structure and organize the WBS
Divide and subdivide the 3. Decompose high-level WBS scope components into low-
project scope and
deliverables into smaller, level components
more manageable parts 4. Develop and assign a unique identification code to each
component from the code of accounts
5. Review the decomposition of work packages and verify that
they align with the project requirements

Tailor the level of decomposition to specific project needs and


the level of granularity needed to manage the project effectively.

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33
WBS
Dictionary
Decompose work and include:
• WBS code identifier
Provides detailed • Description of work
deliverable, activity • Assumptions and constraints
and scheduling
• Responsible organization
information about
each component in • Schedule milestones
the WBS • Associated schedule activities
• Resources required to complete the work
• Cost estimations
• Quality requirements
• Acceptance criteria
• Technical references
• Agreement information

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34
Scope
Baseline
• Approved version of a scope statement, WBS and its associated WBS
dictionary, that can be changed only using formal change control
procedures
• Used as a basis for comparison to actual results

Components include:

• Project scope statement


• WBS
• Work packages
• Planning package
• WBS dictionary

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35
Don’t Forget
to Plan for Include activities to fulfill transition/implementation in the scope of work
• Consider all stakeholders, schedules, risks, budgets, and quality
Transitions / standards.
Handovers! • Identify deliverables/outputs

These can be delivered throughout the project, not just at the end!

Questions to consider:
• Will the work be new, or an update in the business
environment?
• How best to transition the product into a live environment?
• What about decommissioning or removing old systems,
processes or materials?
• Did you ensure training and knowledge transfer are
complete/satisfactory?

How do adaptive or hybrid teams “plan” for handovers or


transitions?
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36
Scope Planning in
Adaptive Environments

• Incremental or iterative development


• User stories propose an alternative way
of viewing the requirements process

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37
Release and
Iteration Collaborative planning meetings that break scope into larger
Planning releases and then iterations/sprints

At release planning (or Agile release planning), decide:


Planning also takes • Number of iterations or sprints needed to complete each
place at the standup
meeting when release
teams discuss • Features contained in the release
details of work in • Goal dates of each release
progress.
At iteration planning (or sprint planning):
• Review the highest prioritized user stories or key outcomes
• Ask questions
• Agree on effort required to complete the user story in the
current iteration
• Determine the activities required to deliver iteration objectives

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38
Backlogs

Example:
• Prioritized list of the
known scope of A product owner creates a product backlog and identifies and adds
work stories in collaboration with the team and stakeholders. Work items
• Information presented describe desired product functionality through user stories.
in story form • The product owner is responsible for prioritizing work according to
• Continually updated value.
by the product
owner in • The product owner and team collaborate to move work items to the
collaboration with iteration/sprint backlog.
teams

Backlogs may be known by slightly different names on your team


or project, but the names are generally descriptive — e.g.,
requirements backlog, sprint backlog, lean backlog.

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39
User Stories, Story Maps,
Roadmaps

• A story map organizes user stories into


functional groups and within a narrative
flow (“the big picture”) of the product
roadmap.
• Helpful for discovering, envisioning and
prioritizing the product and a way ahead!
- Story map technique developed by Jeff Patton

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40
Epics > Features > User Stories
JANUARY DECEMBER

EPIC
EPIC
a major deliverable

FEATURE FEATURE
Delivers a capability that Groups related
can be estimated, tracked functionality together
USER STORY
and managed as a set to deliver value

FEATURE
Includes activities and efforts such as documentation,
bug fixes, testing and quality/defect repairs

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41
Prioritize and
Refine the
Backlog

• Continual refinement done by product owner/customer prior to iteration


planning
• Additional refinement can be done jointly by the team and product
owner during the sprint/iteration
• Allows reorganization and reprioritization of work to complete higher-
priority items that deliver value first
• Split epics into user stories

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42
Plan Scope: Quiz
Which two stakeholders perform
project scope planning? (Choose two)

a. Ang Fen, project manager


b. Helen Grey, product owner
c. Eugene Lowe, project sponsor
d. Project team

Ang Fen wants to give the executive


team an overview of the work ahead at
the next strategy meeting. Which
artifact should he show them?

a. Scope management plan


b. Product roadmap
c. Scope statement
d. Work breakdown structure
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43
ECO Coverage

2.1 Execute project with the urgency


required to deliver business value
• Support the team to subdivide Project
tasks as necessary to find the minimum
viable product (2.1.3)
2.8 Plan and manage scope
• Predictive vs Adaptive approach for
scope
• Determine and prioritize requirements
(2.8.1)
• Break down scope (e.g., WBS, backlog)
(2.8.2)
2.17 Plan and manage project/phase closure
or transitions
• Determine criteria to successfully close
the project or phase (2.17.1)

44
Schedule
TOPIC C

45
Get from “A” to “B”
Overview of Schedule Planning Processes

The project manager ensures that: The project team:


• Work package is broken down into • Uses either a time boxed (cadences)
required activities or continuous flow method
• Dependencies and precedence • Adopts release time frames
relationships are determined
• Plans each iteration with work
• Activity durations are estimated based
• Prioritizes, estimates and decomposes
on average resources
user stories into tasks and determines
• Critical path is determined iteration velocity
• Resource overallocations are resolved • Works with product owner to refine the
backlog after each iteration and plan
• Schedule is compressed to meet any
the next
constraints

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46
Schedule
Management
Plan*
• Describes how activities will be defined and progressively elaborated
• Identifies scheduling method and scheduling tool used
• Determines schedule format
• Establishes criteria for developing and controlling the schedule
• May be tailored for use in any type of project
• Defines the maintenance process for updating status and records
project progress in the schedule model during execution

In hybrid approaches, a schedule management plan can help


by placing management controls on the project time line.

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47
Schedule Project schedule
• Methodology/tool for schedule development
Management model
• Includes maintenance planning, including status updates and
progress during execution
Plan • Acceptable range used to determine realistic activity duration
Components Accuracy estimates
• May include risk contingency
Units of
Defined for each resource – e.g., staff hours, days and weeks
measure
Organizational
Use of WBS to ensure consistency with estimates and schedules
procedural links

• For monitoring schedule performance before taking action – e.g.,


Discuss how the Control escalation/reviews
schedule management thresholds • Expressed as percentage deviations from the baseline — e.g.,
percent ahead or behind schedule
plan can be a beneficial
tool in hybrid projects. Performance measurement — e.g., earned value management (EVM)
Rules
Who would it benefit? rules
Reporting Frequency and formats for schedule-related reports
Process
Describes how schedule management processes are documented
descriptions
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48
Start with Benchmarks
and Historical Data

Benchmarking
• Compares current project schedule with
a similar product/service schedule
• Provides a good “starting point” for
estimation before detailed analysis
• Assesses feasibility in the initial stage of
scheduling

Historical data
Learn lessons from completed projects in
the organization

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49
Hybrid
Schedules
Example
Characteristics
and Benefits • Tailored plans to combine consistency and management oversight with
flexible scheduling of work

• Better product/deliverable quality with incremental or short-term value


delivery and change (improvements, fixes) incorporated at intervals

• Product delivery can be divided into subsets according to a plan


(milestone or cadence)

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50
Predictive
Schedule
Planning

The project manager:


• Breaks down a work package into the required activities
• Determines dependencies and precedence relationships
• Estimates the duration of activities based on average resources
• Determines the critical path
• Resolves resource overallocations
• Compresses the schedule, if needed, to meet constraints

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51
Break Down Project 1.0
Top of WBS
Project name or
Project Name
Activities* primary deliverable

Management control point


• Break down project work packages into 1.1
Integrate scope, budget, and
activities (noun) Control Account
schedule to compare to EV
• Enter activities into the activity list using a
verb statement
Works needed further plan
• Use the activity list to develop the project 1.1.2
Integrate scope, budget, and
schedule Planning Package
schedule to compare to EV
• Include duration (start and end day) for every
activity
Planned works
1.1.1 1.1.2.1
Group scheduled and
Work Package Work Package
estimated activities

Tailor the amount of detail in Code of accounts


activities to the project (numbering system)
context to enable meaningful
estimation and planning.

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52
Activity
Dependency DEPENDENCY TYPES
Types
Meaning Action by Project Manager
Contractually required or
Must schedule it — No way
Mandatory inherent in the nature of
around this sequence
the work
Established because of Can be modified as needed,
best practices or a if replaceable with a better
Discretionary
specific sequence is sequence, or if schedule
desired compression is required
Activities performed
External outside the project team’s Limited or no control
work
In project work,
Internal Has control
contingent on inputs

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53
Precedence
Relationships ARROW INDICATES WHICH
DRIVES THE OTHER

CONFIRM KEY STAKEHOLDER ERECT SIGNAGE WITH


• Activity dependencies AND CUSTOMER CUSTOMER BRANDING
determine ATTENDANCE
precedence
relationships (aka Start Finish Start Finish
logical relationships)
and the order in which Predecessor (Driver) Successor (Driven)
activities are
performed
• Show these using the
precedence
diagramming • Precedence indicates which activity drives the relationship
method (PDM) • Predecessor usually occurs earlier in time than successor

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54
Types of Precedence Relationships
Finish to Start
1
(FS)
ACTIVITY A ACTIVITY E
A. Obtain occupancy permit
from Oasestown building Finish to Finish
department 3 Start to Start (SS) 2 (FF)

B. Confirm tour guide


ACTIVITY C ACTIVITY D
C. Confirm key stakeholder
and customer attendance
ACTIVITY F ACTIVITY E
D. Complete landscaping
and decoration
E. Identify finished spaces 4 Start to Finish
(SF)
for the tour
F. Erect signage with ACTIVITY D ACTIVITY F
customer branding

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55
Lags and Leads in Precedence Relationships
Finish to Start
1
(FS)
Add lead and lag times of up to
ACTIVITY A ACTIVITY E
2 weeks to activities

Document activities and related


3 Start to Start (SS)
assumptions A. Obtain occupancy permit from
Oasestown building department
ACTIVITY C B. Confirm tour guide
C. Confirm key stakeholder and
ACTIVITY F customer attendance
D. Complete landscaping and
decoration
E. Identify finished spaces for the tour
Leads and lags do not have a value, so do F. Erect signage with customer branding
not include them in duration estimates.

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56
Activity
Duration
Estimate
Terminology Activity Duration Estimate
• The quantitative assessment of the likely number of time periods
required to complete an activity

Elapsed time
• The actual calendar time required for an activity from start to finish

Effort
• The number of labor units required to complete a scheduled activity or
WBS component, often expressed in hours, days, or weeks; contrast
with duration

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57
Estimating Techniques

• Less costly and time


• Uses historical data from a similar activity or • May be inaccurate,
consuming
Analogous project to estimate duration (or cost)
• Used when project
depending on quality of
• aka “top-down estimating.” historical information
information is limited
• Uses an algorithm to calculate duration (or • Does not account for a
• Can produce higher levels
cost) based on historical data and project learning curve — i.e., work
of accuracy depending on
parameters. gets easier as team
Parametric • Durations can be quantitatively determined
sophistication of data from
becomes more expert
model
— multiply quantity of work to be performed • Uniform units of work are
• Scalable and linear
by the number of labor hours per unit of work not typical in projects

• Defines an approximate range of an activity’s • May improve accuracy of


• Requires detailed resource
duration, using most likely, optimistic, and single-point estimations by
information
Three-Point pessimistic estimates including risk and
• Requires expert knowledge
• Used when historical data is insufficient, or uncertainty factors
to estimate tasks
subjective

• May be very time


• Very accurate and gives consuming
• Uses aggregates of the estimates of the
Bottom-up lower level components of the WBS
lower-level managers more
responsibility • Can be used only after the
WBS has been well defined

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58
Three-Point Estimation PERT is based on a probability distribution;
Examples therefore, we can calculate a standard
deviation:

(P - O) / 6 = PERT Standard Deviation

Triangular Distribution (average) BETA Distribution (PERT average)

FORMULA FORMULA
E = (O + M + P) / 3 E = (O + 4M + P) / 6
• Optimistic = 3 weeks
• Most Likely = 5 weeks • Optimistic estimate = 3 weeks
• Pessimistic = 10 weeks • Weighted most likely estimate = 5 weeks
• Pessimistic estimate = 10 weeks
EQUATION
EQUATION
(3 + 5 + 10) / 3 = 6 weeks
[3 + 4 (5) + 10] / 6 = 5.5 weeks

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59
Critical Path* ACTIVITY ACTIVITY

Method 2
4 WEEKS
4
3 WEEKS

ACTIVITY 1 ACTIVITY 6
Sequence mandatory START
6 WEEKS 1 WEEK
FINISH
critical path activities
to find the longest path
through a project and to ACTIVITY ACTIVITY
determine the shortest 3 5
5 WEEKS 4 WEEKS
possible project
duration and the
amount of flexibility in
the schedule
1[6w] + 2[4w] + 4[3w] + 6[1w] = 14-weeks

1[6w] + 3[5w] + 5[4w] + 6[1w] = 16-week critical path

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60
Network 2

Diagram with 4 5
3 3
Date and C
8
7
Dependencies 1 3 8
F
10
A 4 11
1 3 9 11
4 7
Calculate: START D END
1 4 4
• Critical path 1 4 4 7 8 11
• Forward pass B E
• Backward pass 4 7 8 11
• Float
KEY
ES DUR
EF
ACTIVITY
LS FLT
LF Copyright 2023© Project Management Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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The Project
Schedule

• Includes start and finish activities


• Uses specific dates and in a certain sequence
• Sets dates for project milestones
• Coordinates activities to ensure on-time project completion
• Tracks project progress based on schedule performance and
provides visibility of project status to upper management and project
stakeholders

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62
Schedule
Presentation
Formats
Select the type of schedule to suit your project!

• Roadmap
• Gantt Chart
• Milestone Chart
• Project Schedule Network Diagram

Do you remember the name of the tool we used for


scheduling activities in a project plan?

Hint: The output is a project schedule network


diagram.

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63
Gantt Chart
Visualize and Track the Project Over a Time Line

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64
Milestone Schedule
Present Milestones with Planned Dates

ID Task Name April May June July


3/14 3/21 3/28 4/4 4/11 4/18 4/25 5/2 5/9 5/16 5/23 5/30 6/6 6/13 6/14 6/20 6/27 7/4 7/11 7/18 7/25

30 Begin Phase 1
31 Deliverable A
32 Deliverable B
Phase Gate
33
Review
34 Begin Phase 2
35 Deliverable C
36 Deliverable D
Phase Gate
37
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65
Project Schedule Network Diagram
Visualize Interrelationships of Activities

Notations are for graphical


example only!

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66
Resource
Optimization
Smoothing
• Adjusts the activities within predefined resource limits and within free
and total floats
• Does not change the critical path nor delay the completion date
• Method may not be able to optimize all resources

Levelling
• Adjusts start and finish dates based on resource constraints
• Goal is to balance demand for resources with available supply
• Use when shared or critically required resources have limited
availability or are over-allocated
• Can change the critical path

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67
Schedule
Compression
Techniques
Fast-tracking
• Perform activities in parallel to reduce time
• May result in rework, increased risk and increased cost

Crashing
• Shortens schedule duration for the least incremental cost by adding
resources – e.g., overtime, additional resources
• Works only for activities on the critical path
• Does not always produce a viable alternative and may result in
increased risk and/or cost

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68
Schedule Baseline*

• Complete schedule planning activities


• Add the schedule baseline to the project
management plan
Ideally, this happens before the project
starts.
• Compare actual progress to the baseline
while the team works
• Use the formal change control process to
make changes to the baseline

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69
Special
Intervals
Negotiate how and when required scheduled “down” time intervals will
take place

Black-out times - deliverables are handed over for implementation:


What are special • Suspends changes
intervals known as in
your projects? • Reduces risks as the solution is released to customers

“Go Live” - at the end of the project timeline

Negotiate black-out times as project approaches release


Iteration H or hardening sprint – conducted prior to final release

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70
Schedule
Management
in
Adaptive
Environments • Depends on team composition and life cycle
• Project team works with the product owner to decide
Guidelines • Develop the roadmap to show release functionality and timeframes
• Choose an approach:
• Time-boxed scheduling with backlog
• On-demand, continuous scheduling
• Project team selects activities for delivery within an iteration (or
sprint)
• Teams produce increments of value for delivery and feedback

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71
Adaptive Scheduling Approaches
Comparative View
On-Demand (Kanban/Lean-based) Time-boxed/Iterative
• Allows individual requests to be • Uses progressive elaboration (rolling wave) to
addressed schedule activities
• Levels out work of team members • Uses a specific work interval — e.g. two
• Best when activities are divided equally weeks
• Allows changes at any time during project
Does not work well in projects with
complex dependency relationships
Prioritize requests to determine start Define requirements with user stories then
sequence then sequence stories prioritize stories
individually through completion
Team pulls work from queue Select work based on priority and time box; add
remaining stories to backlog; reintroduce stories
later, based on priority
Provides incremental business value Delivers business value early and incrementally

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72
Adaptive Planning Overview

A release schedule
usually lasts from 3-6
months.

Time-boxed iterations
or sprints typically last
1 - 4 weeks.

Assign story points to


tasks to determine the
amount of work

Velocity – the capacity Story Point

of the team to complete Story Point

work Story Point

Story Point

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73
Working with Features

Scheduling aligned to features ensures


associated work is coordinated.
Associating features with the product
roadmap offers visibility of when blocks of
functionality can be released to the
business and end users.

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74
Agile Release
Planning MOST
IMPORTANT
Sequence of features needed in release

Story Mapping

Priority of user stories by feature


• Group stories by
sequence and
priority
• Sequence features
and functions for the
release
• Prioritize user stories
in the release
backlog and
associate them with
features and functions

LEAST
IMPORTANT

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75
Measure Effort, Not Time

Relative sizing
• Compares effort of multiple user stories through assignment of values (XS, S, M, L, XL)

Use common t-shirt sizes to assign values to user stories.

Story points
• Uses a relative measure – e.g., numbers in the Fibonacci
sequence – to identify the level of difficulty or complexity of
a user story or task

Planning poker
• Estimates effort or relative size of development effort
• Uses a deck of cards with modified Fibonacci numbers to vote on user stories

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76
Definition of
Ready (DoR)*
Agile teams need to know when they can be “ready” to do the work and
and when that work is “done.”
Definition of
Done (DoD)* DoR - What needs to be in place so the team can begin work?
• Depends on the environment’s complexity and lessons learned from
past iterations.
• Use DoR checklist to communicate and collaborate with stakeholders
about readiness for work or progress.

DoD describes the goal or desired state. It must be informed by the


DoR.

DoD is similar to acceptance criteria in predictive


projects.

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77
Reprioritize
Sprint / Iteration The product owner and team collaborate to move work items from a
Backlog* release backlog to an iteration/sprint backlog for the upcoming sprint.

Team holds a sprint planning meeting before each sprint, which


typically lasts 2 weeks.

2-week interval

ITERATION 1

Sprint
ITERATION 2
...
Feedback
planning Backlog
Prioritization

Sprint
planning

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Hybrid
Scheduling
Models
Project manager plans high-level project phases and milestones; scrum
Example master runs sprints using agile processes
• Identify project work types and try to break them down
• Create a prioritized work backlog which fulfils project phase or
achieves milestone
• Work in iterations/sprints of 2 - 4 weeks (use shorter sprints for less
Can you identify which
experienced team to facilitate alignment)
aspects of this
scheduling model are • Plan work before every iteration using prioritized backlog items
predictive and which are
adaptive? • Estimate every task to decide how many can fit in a single sprint

Can you identify who • Hold a retrospective at the end of every sprint; capture metrics to
does each of the tasks adjust timing and task estimate for next sprint
listed?

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79
ECO Coverage

2.6 Plan and manage schedule


• Predictive vs adaptive approach for
schedule
• Estimate project tasks (milestones,
dependencies, story points) (2.6.1)
• Utilize benchmarks and historical data
(2.6.2)
• Prepare schedule based on methodology
(2.6.3)

80
Resources
TOPIC D

81
Resources
People and Equipment

• Value and empower internal human


resources, yet
• Leverage external sources to ensure
you have the best team and equipment
possible!

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Resource
Management • Identify resources - People and equipment
Plan* • How to acquire them
• Peoples’ roles and responsibilities
• Role – A person’s function in a project
• Authority - Rights to use resources, make decisions, accept
deliverables.
• Responsibility - Assigned duty
• Competencies and skills required
• Project Organization Chart – (Visual with resource categories and
reporting relationships)
• Project team resource management – Guidance on how to define,
select, manage and release resources
• Training - Strategies and requirements
• Team development methods
• Resource controls - Methods for ensuring non-human-resources
are available as needed
• Recognition plan ©
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83
Assign
Resources and
Allocate
• Assign team members to project
Responsibilities
• Decide roles and responsibilities
• Create team directory, organization chart and the schedule

Project schedules, resource assignments and budgets


are all interrelated and can be created at the same time.

• Tailor responsibilities according to team, needs and project


approach
• Consider technical and “soft” skills:
• Experience, knowledge, skills
• Attitude
• Global/regional factors

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84
Use Resource
Calendars*

• Document resource availability (people, equipment, material, etc.)


during a planned activity period.
• Use when estimating project activities and understanding
dependencies
• Specifies when, and for how long, identified team and physical
resources will be available during the project
• Progressively elaborate and update it throughout the project

Resource calendars can be used in any kind of


project!

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Responsibility
• Performs work to complete the task or create the
Assignment RESPONSIBLE deliverable
A team member
Tools • Every task has at least one responsible person

ACCOUNTABLE • Delegates and reviews the work involved in a project


On the team • Ensures the responsible person/team knows project
(leadership/ expectations and completes work on time
Responsibility assignment management) • Each task has only one accountable person
matrix (RAM) or RACI
chart: • Provides input and feedback on project work
• Designates types of
CONSULT
• Not every task or milestone needs a consulted party
accountabilities assigned Stakeholders
to resources or Consider all stakeholders, but invite only
stakeholders necessary input
• Keeps information visible INFORM
Usually not • Needs to be informed of project progress because their
project decision work might be affected, but don’t need details
makers

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86
Adaptive
Resource
Planning
Quiz
Which of these are true? (Choose several)

• Teams self-organize to distribute work. TRUE


• Adaptive teams never have a leader. FALSE
• Team members are a mix of generalists and specialists. TRUE
• Team members should be T-shaped. TRUE

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87
Filling
Resource
Needs
Make or Buy? External sourcing considerations:
Borrow? • What is the impact on cost, time or quality?
• Is there an ongoing need for the specific skill set?
• How steep is the learning curve?
• Are required resources available within the organization?
• Would outsourcing allow the team to focus?

Use a make-or-buy analysis to make the best decision for your team.

Make-or-buy decisions are part of a procurement strategy.

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88
Plan the
Procurement
Strategy
• Work with organization’s finance or procurement department
• Use pre-approved vendors before requesting a new vendor
• Observe purchase amount limits per signatory — i.e. contracts
• Prerequisite OPAs valued over a certain threshold must be co-signed
• Acquisition method • Use defined bidding process and templates
• Contract types
• Require RFPs for contracts valued over a certain threshold
• Procurement phases
• Follow escalation procedures for approval of spending limits
• Pay contracts at a defined time – e.g., upon completion of work or at
the end of a project, with net payment terms

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Procurement
Management
Plan*

• Specifies the types of contracts that will be used


• Describes the process for obtaining and evaluating bids
• Mandates standardized procurement documents
• Describes how providers will be managed

Your organization’s procurement function will be involved in


developing this plan. Work with them closely and use the correct
procurement documents to avoid problems.

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90
Procurement
Documents
Bid and
Proposal
• Statement of Work (SOW): Details of work required
Activities
• Request for quotation (RFQ): Bid/tender or quotation, including only
cost
• Invitation for Bid (IFB): Buyer requests expressions of interest in
work
• Request for information (RFI): Buyer requests more information
from seller
• Request for proposal (RFP): Buyer-issued statement of work
required
• Expression of Interest (EOI): Seller-issued expression of interest in
work

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Formal
Procurement
Processes
RFPs, Bidder
Conferences Organizations in highly regulated industries or government

Or, if a project needs specialist work or wants to find the best quality
available.

Use RFPs, bidder conferences, and formal processes to ensure all


prospective vendors have a clear and common understanding of
the procurement

Work closely with the procurement officer or department

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92
Source
Selection
Criteria* • Overall or life-cycle cost
• Understanding of need
• Technical capability
Work with external • Management approach
resources whose values, • Technical approach
skills and attributes are
aligned with your • Warranty
project’s. • Financial capacity
• Production capacity and interest
• Business size and type
• Past performance of sellers
• References
• Intellectual property rights
• Proprietary rights

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Qualified
Vendors

• Are pre-approved by the organization


• Have a history of work with the organization
• Are often “preferred” because they are proven, and their accounts are
already set up

Look in the lessons learned repository to find historical data


about vendors.

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94
Contracts*
Negotiate
Productive Contracts:
Relationships • Legalize working agreements
• Give structure to working relationships
• Further collaboration with partners
• Consider risks associated with contract types
• Deliver benefits to the buyer - different benefits by type
• Can be tailored for the partnership

DETERMINATION
REQUEST PROPOSAL CONTRACT
OF NEED

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Contract
Types (1 of 3) Involves payments (cost reimbursements) to the seller for all legitimate
actual costs incurred for completed work, plus a fee (seller profit)

Cost plus • Reimburses seller for all allowable costs for performing contract
fixed fee work; fixed-fee payment calculated as a percentage of the initial
Cost-reimbursable (CPFF) estimated project costs.
contracts - For projects • Fee amounts do not change unless the project scope changes.
with expected, significant
Cost plus • Reimburses seller for all allowable costs for performing contract
scope changes incentive work; predetermined incentive fee based for achieving contract-
fee (CPIF) specified performance objectives.
• Shares costs between buyer and seller if final costs are less or
greater than the original estimated costs
• Bases cost sharing on a pre-negotiated cost-sharing formula —
e.g., an 80/20 split over/under goal costs
Cost plus • Reimburses seller for all legitimate costs
award fee • Bases majority of fee on satisfying subjective performance criteria
(CPAF) defined and incorporated into the contract
• Determines fee based on buyer’s assessment of seller
performance and not subject to appeals

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Contract
Types (2 of 3) Firm fixed price Price of goods set at beginning; won’t change unless scope
(FFP) changes
Fixed price • Gives buyer and seller flexibility
incentive fee • Allows for deviation from performance — i.e., financial
(FPIF) incentives tied to achieving agreed-upon metrics (cost,
Fixed-price contracts –
schedule, awesomeness)
sets a fixed total price for
• Sets price ceiling; any further costs charged to seller
a defined product,
service, or result; used Fixed price • Allows for special provisions for predefined final adjustments to
when requirements are with economic the contract price — e.g., inflation, cost increases (or
well defined and price decreases) for specific commodities
no significant scope adjustments
changes are expected. (FPEPA)

Pre-approved
vendors or
international
payments

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Contract
Types (3 of 3)

Time and material contracts

• Also called “time and means”


• Combine aspects of both cost-reimbursable and fixed-price contracts
• Used when a precise scope or statement of work is unavailable
• Used often for augmenting staff, acquiring experts or gaining external
support

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“Agile” Contract Types
Multi-tiered • Create a master service agreement to capture fixed items — e.g., warranties, arbitration
structure • List variable items in a schedule of services — e.g., service rates, product descriptions
• Use a SOW to itemize dynamic items — e.g., scope, schedule, budget
Emphasize value • Structure milestone and payment terms based on value derived at milestones
delivered • Focus on the value of feedback in product development
Fixed-price Decompose scope into smaller, fixed-price micro-deliverables (user stories), giving customer
increments more control over how the money is spent and limiting the supplier’s financial risk.
Not-to-exceed • Limit budget to fixed amount, allowing customer to add ideas by removing existing ones
time and • Monitor work to avoid overage (or add contingency hours)
materials
Graduated time • Connect quality and timely delivery of work (use DoD) to financial award – reward for early
and materials and reduce for late delivery
Early • Enable flexible delivery of scope, using DoD — e.g., if partial scope delivery satisfies
cancellation customer, contract can be cancelled for a fee
option
Dynamic scope • Gives option to vary scope and fund innovation at specific points while limiting supplier risk
option • Vary scope at specific points to adjust features and innovate
Team • Embed supplier’s services directly into the customer organization; fund team instead of
augmentation scope
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Components
of Contracts

• Description of work - deliverables and scope


• Delivery date and schedule information
• Identification of authority, where appropriate
• Responsibilities of both parties
• Management of technical and business aspects
• Price and payment terms
• Provisions for termination
• Applicable guarantees and warranties
• Intellectual property
• Security, confidentiality, data privacy

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100
ECO Coverage

1.6 Build a team


• Deduce project resource requirements
(1.6.2)
2.11 Plan and manage procurement
(resources)
• Define resource requirements and needs
(2.11.1)
• Communicate resource requirements
(2.11.2)
• Manage suppliers/contracts (2.11.3)
• Plan and manage procurement strategy
(2.11.4)
• Develop a delivery solution (2.11.5)

101
Budget
TOPIC E

102
Budget
Planning
Create budget in accordance with project life cycles:
Overview
Begin with fixed budget and amend with change control process
Consider:
• Cost as well as value
• Organization and Hybrid approaches add adaptability around surety
stakeholder attitudes
towards budget and
costs
Use burn rate

Agile teams collaborate with stakeholder partners and finance


stakeholders to suggest incremental budgeting approaches (agile
mindset)

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Predictive
Budget
Planning • Create a cost management plan
• Employ estimating techniques to assign costs to activities
• Tailor a cost baseline
• Is used to monitor and measure cost performance throughout the
project (compares with actual results)
• Includes budget contingencies to address identified risks
• Can be changed only through formal change control procedures

The budget at completion (BAC) is the highest point on the cost


baseline. The BAC is the sum of all budgets established, or the value
of total planned work.

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Check with
Organization
Funding Limit
Reconciliation

• Compare planned
project expenditure
against funding limits
• Align
work/expenditures on
the schedule to level
the rate of
expenditures

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Historical Data
Start with What’s Known

• Check lessons learned repository for


budgets, estimates from previous,
similar projects or data from the last
iteration
• Look for valuable cost-estimating
information - both successes and
shortcomings
• Use analogous and estimating
techniques, based on similar situations

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Resource Costs

• Match project need to • Assign a blended rate


resource attributes • Estimate points (effort) using planning poker or affinity
(availability, experience, diagram to find the number of user stories that can be
knowledge/skills, completed based on team velocity
attitude)
• Use a simple formula to estimate the cost per point:
• Create initial estimate
– Σ (loaded team salaries for period n) / points completed
based on average rate
in interval n
• Modify as needed
• Use a formula to estimate budget:
– (Cost per point * total point value of items to be
completed) + other expenses = forecast budget

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Estimate Costs

Estimate the cost for each activity or Expecting the scope to change?
work package in a project.
Use lightweight estimation methods
Cost estimates should include: for high-level estimating.
• Direct labor
• Materials
• Equipment
• Facilities
• Services
• Information technology
• Contingency reserves

Use:
• Rough order of magnitude (-25 to
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Project Budget

• Use the bottom-up approach to


aggregate activity costs, work package
costs and cost baseline
• Include contingencies to support risk
management

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Adaptive and Hybrid Budget Planning
Guidelines/Example

Examples

• Focus on short-term budgeting • Estimate budget based on current data, plus a


and metrics versus long-term forecast algorithm that is based on historic data or
expert guidance — e.g., lean or Kanban
• Set time periods for work and
prioritize work within those time • Use a “top-down” approach, using gross-level
periods. estimation techniques such as planning poker and
affinity grouping on feature sets, then employing
• Base cost on the resources used progressive elaboration and rolling-wave planning
for that time period methods to drill down to the task level on a just-in-
time basis (iteratively)

• Revise budget at sprint planning intervals

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Budget
Considerations
• Estimate budget based on the length of time of the project
• Burn rate includes:
• Number of team members
• Blended or actual team member rates
• Time of involvement
• Assumption of full-time team involvement
• If additional equipment or supplies are required, add them to the
estimated cost

Product owner may control the budget, depending on team


composition.

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111
ECO Coverage

2.5 Plan and manage budget and resources


• Estimate budgetary needs based on the
scope of the project and lessons learned
from past projects (2.5.1)
• Anticipate future budget challenges
(2.5.2)
• Plan and manage resources (2.5.4)

112
Risks
TOPIC F

113
Risk
Conditions of
Uncertainty

• Risk originates from a wide range of known and unknown causes


within and outside the business environment.
• Risk development is indicated by a trigger condition.
• Risks can be positive (opportunities) or negative (threats).
• If a risk becomes an issue, you must act!

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Project Risks
SLC Examples
Project Risks

• Working with new vendors and


building processes
• Supply chain issues for correct
bricks
• Building code compliance
• Key stakeholder conflict
• Retail market changes –
decline of in-store shopping
• Site survey shows risk of
slippage from coastal erosion
< 25 years

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Risk
Business
Context
Business risks represent an opportunity for gain or loss.
Project risk management systematically maximizes the
probability of positive events and minimizes the probability and
consequences of negative events.
• Likelihood of a risk
event vs. the potential
impact
• Opportunity vs. threat
As project uncertainty increases, the risk of rework increases;
adaptive life cycles use smaller increments of work to enable
feedback and progressive elaboration of scope.

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116
Create Risk
Strategy
How would you describe the Management Guidelines
organization/ project’s risk • Use qualitative (high, medium,
appetite? low, etc.) or quantitative
(numerical) ratings
• Risk-seeking?
First, understand risk • Risk-neutral? • Set a maximum risk exposure
parameters for the • Risk-averse? level that can be managed
organization and the without escalation
project! The risk threshold is tied to
individual and organizational risk
appetites. Do you know:
• Which are too high to accept?
• Which are low enough to just be
accepted?
• What criteria determines
inclusion in the risk register?

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117
Define/Refine
Risk Set initial risk strategy, then define In the plan:
and refine it!
Management • Risk strategy
Approach • Methodology
Factor in project characteristics: • Roles and responsibilities
• Size • Funding
• Complexity • Timing
• Importance • Risk categories
• Development approach • Stakeholder risk appetite
• Definition of risk probability and
impact
Create a risk management plan!
• Probability and impact matrix
• Reporting formats
• Tracking documents

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118
Inherent Risk Far from
agreement
CHAOS
(FUNDAMENTALL
Y
RISKY)

• Agile projects include risks in user


stories and as part of backlog work COMPLEX

Requirements
items
• Teams discuss risks at planning
meetings, during the normal course of COMPLICATED
work
(ADAPTIVE PLANNING)
• Teams place risks in a risk register, use
information radiators to ensure
visibility and a backlog refinement SIMPLE
Close to
process that includes constant risk agreement
(PREDICTIVE PLANNING)

assessment
Close to Far from
certainty Technology
certainty

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119
Risk
Identification Data Gathering and Analysis
Techniques
• Risk breakdown structure (RBS)
• Brainstorming

Use a prompt list to • Nominal group technique


evaluate the external • SWOT analysis
environment for risks.
• Affinity diagram
• Assumption analysis
• Document review
• Delphi technique
• Monte Carlo simulation (larger organizations)

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120
RBS Level 0 RBS Level 1 RBS Level 2
1.1 Scope definition

Risk 1.2 Requirements definition

Breakdown 1. Technical Risk


1.3 Estimates, assumptions, and constraints

Structure 1.4 Technical processes


1.5 Technology
1.6 Technical interfaces
2.1 Project management
2.2 Program/portfolio management
Uses typical categories, 2.3 Operations management
such as: 2. Management Risk
2.4 Organization

• Technical 2.5 Resourcing

0. All Sources of Project Risk 2.6 Communication


• Management 3.1 Contractual terms and conditions
3.2 Internal procurement
• Commercial 3.3 Suppliers and vendors
3. Commercial Risk
• External 3.4 Subcontracts
3.5 Client/customer stability
3.6 Partnerships and join ventures
4.1 Legislation
4.2 Exchange rates
4.3 Site / facilities
4. External Risk
4.4 Environmental / weather
4.5 Competition
4.6 Regulatory

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Assess Risks
Qualitative then
Quantitative

Perform the subjective qualitative assessment first.

Prioritize risks for further analysis by assessing and combining their


probability of occurrence and impact in a probability/impact matrix.

Then, if further support is required, use a quantitative assessment.

Not every risk needs quantitative assessment.

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122
Create Risk Probability and Impact Definitions
Example
+ / - IMPACT ON PROJECT OBJECTIVES

PROBABILIT
SCALE TIME COST QUALITY
Y

VERY HIGH >70% >6 months >$5m Very significant impact on overall functionality

HIGH 51-70% 3-6 months $1m-$5m Significant impact on overall functionality

MEDIUM 31-50% 1-3 months $501k - $1m Some impact in key functional areas

LOW 11-30% 1-4 weeks $100k-$500k Minor impact on overall functionality

VERY LOW 1-10% 1 week <$100k Minor impact on secondary functions

NIL <1% No change No change No change in functionality

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Probability IMPACT
(SEVERITY)
and Impact
Matrix 1 2 3 4 5
PROBABILITY
VERY LOW
(LIKELIHOOD)
• Use numeric values 1 1 2 3 4 5
and/or colors
LOW
• If using numbers,
multiply them to give 2 2 4 6 8 10
a probability impact
MEDIUM
score – this makes
evaluating relative 3 3 6 9 12 15
priority easier!
HIGH

4 4 8 12 16 20
This is NOT a
quantitative VERY HIGH
evaluation. 5 5 10 15 20 25

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124
Risk Register*

Risk Score
Risk Impact Impact Level Probability Trigger Planned
(probability and Owner
Description Description Score Level Score Condition Response
impact multiplied)
What will
(IMPACT X
happen if the Rate Rate
PROBABILITY) What indicates the Who’s
risk is not 1 (LOW) to 1 (LOW) to Action plan
Address highest risk will occur. responsible
mitigated or 5 (HIGH) 5 (HIGH)
first.
eliminated
Supply chain
Supplier
issues for 5 1 5 L. De Souza
notification
correct bricks
Building code
5 2 10 Pre-checks fail K. Ayoung
compliance
Working with
new vendors
3 3 9 Delays or conflict K. Ayoung
and building
processes

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Risk List
Probability Impact
Risk Magnitude
(1-10) (1-10)
• Working with new vendors and Teams can add (tailor)
5 6 30
building processes columns for:
• Supply chain issues for correct
5 10 50 • Owner
bricks
• Status
• Building code noncompliance 5 10 50
• Date identified
• Key stakeholder conflict (Josie
Bynoe) 4 6 24 • Date resolved

• Retail market declining 8 10 80


• Days active
• Resolution strategy
• Site survey shows risk of slippage
from coastal erosion < 25 years 5 3 15

In addition to a risk list or a risk register, teams use information radiators and a
backlog refinement process with risks added, which are discussed at various
planning meetings.
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Quantitative
Risk Analysis • Simulations - Use computer models to determine risk factors
Methods • Monte Carlo simulations produce a quantitative risk analysis model
by using schedule and/or cost inputs to produce an integrated
(1 of 2) quantitative cost-schedule risk analysis

• Simulations • Sensitivity analysis - Determine the greatest risk


• Sensitivity analysis • Output is the
• Decision tree analysis Tornado diagram,
a horizontal bar
• Influence diagrams chart comparing
• Expected monetary relative importance
value (EMV) of various risks,
highest on top

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Quantitative
Risk Analysis Decision tree analysis
• Branches represent decisions or events, each with associated costs
Methods and risks
(2 of 2) • The end-points of branches represent the outcome (negative or
positive)
• Simulations Influence diagrams
• Sensitivity analysis • Quality management graphical aid
• Decision tree • Shows elements of uncertainty caused by risks using ranges or
analysis probability distributions
• Influence diagrams
Used when decision trees are too complex.
• Expected monetary
value (EMV)
Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
• Multiply the monetary value of a possible outcome with its probability of
occurrence to calculate the EMV of each branch
• Select the optimal one

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Risks
Time, Cost and
Life Cycle

“Predictive projects are most often Do you think each of these


affected by the impact of cost-related typical risks is more typical of
risks, whereas adaptive projects are predictive or adaptive project?
affected by the impact of time-related Can you explain why?
risks.”
Typical Risks
• Delivery date slips
Do you agree or disagree?
Why? • Stretched resources
• Lack of clarity
• Scope creep

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Risk Response
Good Practice

Risk responses should be:

• Appropriate for the significance of the risk


• Cost effective
• Realistic within the project context
• Agreed to by relevant stakeholders
• Owned by a responsible person

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Plan Risk
Response
Guidelines and • A trigger condition signals a risk can develop
Terminology
• Team implements a risk response

• A secondary risk can arise as a direct result of the risk response


implementation

• Residual risk can remain after risk responses have been


implemented

• Have a contingency (fallback) plan ready in case the primary risk


response fails

• The contingency reserve (or allowance) is the budget within the


cost baseline that is allocated for identified risks and their response
strategies

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131
Risk Response Strategies THREAT OPPORTUNITY

Prepare strategies for threats (negative) as ESCALATE ESCALATE


well as opportunities (positive) and for
individual project risks and overall project
risk. AVOID EXPLOIT

TRANSFER SHARE

MITIGATE ENHANCE

ACCEPT ACCEPT

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132
ECO Coverage

2.3 Assess and manage risks


• Determine risk management options
(2.3.1)
• Iteratively assess and prioritize risks
(2.3.2)
3.1 Plan and manage project compliance
• Determine necessary approach and
action to address compliance needs (risk,
legal) (3.1.6)
• Determine potential threats to compliance
(3.1.3)

133
Quality
TOPIC G

134
Quality

The degree to which a set of inherent


characteristics fulfill requirements.
Include:
• Stakeholder expectations and end-user
satisfaction
• Compliance with standards and
regulations
• Continuous improvement

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Cost of Quality
(CoQ)
Money spent during project to avoid failure Money spent during/after project
because of failures

• Prevention costs (Build a quality • Internal failure costs


product) • Rework
• Training • Scrap
• Document processes • External failure costs
• Equipment • Liabilities
• Time to do work “right” – resources, • Warranty work
infrastructure expenses
• Lost business
• Appraisal (quality assessment)
• Testing
• Inspections
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136
Stakeholder
and Customer
Expectations
of Quality PRODUCT/DELIVERABLE PROCESSES

Identify quality requirements Ongoing observation and checking


during requirements elicitation; of processes stated in quality
create quality management plan. management plan; overseen by a
quality policy.

Your organization should have a quality policy which applies to


all projects. If your organization does not have a quality policy,
then your project needs to create one.

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Quality Management Plan

• Activities and resources that achieve the


quality objectives
• Formal or informal, detailed or broadly
framed
• Reviewed throughout the project
• Benefits:
• Sharper focus on the project’s value
proposition
• Cost reductions
• Mitigated schedule overruns from
rework

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Compliance
Requirements

Internal and external standards, such as:


• Appropriate government regulations
• Organizational policies
• Product and project quality requirements
• Project risk
Compliance actions:
• Classify compliance categories
• Determine potential threats to compliance
• Analyze the consequences of
noncompliance
• Determine necessary approach and
action to address compliance needs

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Quality Example

Standards and Documents established as a model


Standards by an authority, custom, or by Dictionary
Regulations general consent.
Requirements that can establish
product, process, or service
Regulations characteristics, including applicable Language rules
administrative provisions with
government-mandated compliance.

De facto standards or Widely accepted and adopted Words are used widely in
regulations through use, but not yet. . .. groups, like slang or jargon.

De jure standards or Mandated by law or approved by a Word enters dictionary and


regulations recognized body of experts. becomes a defined word.

A number of international institutes are devoted to quality, including:


• American Society for Quality (ASQ) - ISO 9000 Series
• The Chartered Quality Institute (CQI)
• ASTM International

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Discussion
Quality Standards and
Regulations

What standards and regulations are


relevant in your industry?

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Quality
Metrics,
Checklists,
Metrics measure desired quality attributes for your product or project
and through testing, use of tools, processes.
Processes
Include a tolerance level that factors in what the customer will accept
and describe the desired quality level in the acceptance criteria and
DoD.

Include checklists, templates and quality artifacts in the quality


management plan.

Adaptive teams use retrospectives and small batch cycles to ensure


quality.

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142
Quality
Methods for
Continuous
Improvement
Six Sigma (aka Lean Six Sigma) – DMAIC framework (Define,
Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control) – focus on removing waste

Kaizen – “change for better/improve”

(PDCA) Plan – Do – Check – Act – Shewhart/Deming

Agile methods - Scrum, Kanban, Crystal Methods (software), etc.

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ECO Coverage

2.7 Plan and manage quality of products /


deliverables
• Determine quality standard required for
project deliverables (2.7.1)
3.1 Plan and manage project compliance
• Use methods to support compliance
(3.1.4)
• Measure the extent to which the project is
in compliance (3.1.7)

144
Integrate Plans
TOPIC H

145
Integrating
Plans
An Important Overall, the scope, schedule, budget, resources, quality and risk plans
Step must support desired outcomes.

An integrated view of all plans can:


• Identify and correct gaps or discrepancies
• Align efforts and highlight how they depend on each other — so your
team works better!
• Help assess and coordinate the project during its life cycle

The result of this step is an integrated project management


plan!

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146
Integrate
Plans
At the end of the planning stage, combine all planning results
from knowledge areas.

Specific to project manager role, this task cannot be


delegated.

Reframe the approach to “plan integration” and figure out a way


forward to work with the various planning elements – adapt it
while working!

Adaptive processes and agile ceremonies provide a structure to


continuously integrate plans or aspects of a project.

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Questions about Change Typical Answers
Change
Control Who can propose a change? Roles are assigned

A change is proposed or an event


What exactly constitutes a change? changes one of the project
Use a change baselines or measures
management plan to
set a process and What is the impact of the change on project
Recommend evaluation method
assigned roles for objectives?
change
What are steps to evaluate a change
Required steps per quality policy
request before approving or rejecting it?
Who has the authority to approve various Change control board, other
types and levels of change? approvals
When a change request is approved, what
project documents will record the next Change log
steps (actions)?
How will you monitor these actions to Quality metrics, RAM/RACI charts,
confirm completion and quality? information radiators
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Plan for
Complexity
and Change Systems-based
• Decoupling: Disconnect parts of the system to simplify it and reduce
the number of connected variables
• Organization’s system • Simulation: Use similar, unrelated scenarios to try to understand the
complexity
• Human behavior
• Uncertainty or Reframe the Problem
ambiguity • Diversity: View the system from different perspectives
• Balance: Reconsider the type of data used

Process-Based
• Iterate: Plan iteratively or incrementally; add features one at a time
• Engage: Really engage with stakeholders
• Fail safe: Plan for failure

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How to Approach
Complex Plans
Fail Fast and Self-Correct!

Instead of planning, rely on tailoring,


adaptability and resilience
Adopt mindsets and frameworks that
prioritize collaboration over instruction
and control

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ECO Coverage

2.9 Integrate project planning activities


• Consolidate the project/phase plans
(2.9.1)
• Assess consolidated project plans for
dependencies, gaps, and continued
business value (2.9.2)
• Analyze the data collected (2.9.3)
• Collect and analyze data to make
informed project decisions (2.9.4)
• Determine critical information
requirements (2.9.5)
2.10 Manage project changes
• Determine strategy to handle change
(2.10.2)

151
End of Lesson 3

152

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